一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

Here is my attempt to understand this spike and make the chart fit with the pairs movements today. Comments welcome.Attached Images





Usdjpy
Yen crosses all went very far outside the BB's. See attached 4-hour chart of USDJPY. There's a beautiful triangle visible there. If you further enlarge the picture, for instance when you take the daily chart, the picture still seems as bearish as it did yesterday. RSI in the daily has stayed perfectly within the bearish range which further confirms this.
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hefeiddd

Very oversold 30 minute and 60 minute charts. However, still sitting below the uptrend channel. If it can work off the oversold without going much above the channel we may be in for another leg down BEFORE any correction back up.
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hefeiddd

This is a potential count -- a flat unfolding from 1.5904. Resistance tonight and into tomorrow is in the 1.5800/45 zone.
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hefeiddd

EUR/GBP and EUR/USD
Hey Guys,

It should be noted that the EUR/GBP and EUR/USD are trading in lockstep. I still think the EUR/GBP is tracing out an ending diagonal. The reversal today at the upper resistance line of the diagonal strengthens that idea. I also agree that the USD index is forming a triangle. It looks like waves A thru D are complete. The EUR/USD has the same pattern going on. I see that a barrier triangle has formed with waves A thru D complete there as well. We should see a drop to triangle support in wave 'E' before the terminal thrust higher. By then the ending diagonal in EUR/GBP will also be complete, offering nice trades to the downside in both currencies.
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hefeiddd

Yes I can see that forming and it is staying nicely under the trend line drawn of the daily high from October 30/07.Attached Images

hefeiddd

On the short scale (in this case 5 min chart) I show a head and shoulder pattern in GBPJPY, at the moment not confirmed yet.
Similar patterns can be observed in all other crosses, USDJPY, EURJPY, AUDJPY, NZDJPY.
Also, it is closing time for the stock market, indices moved down from its high, meaning that the Yen got a little stronger again. Funny, how it all ties in.

If you guys want to jump in, NOW is the time to do it.
In an hour or two it might be too late.

It will be interesting to sit, relax and watch.

MikeAttached Thumbnails

hefeiddd

Gbp/usd
Here's my take on the GBP/USD. A leading diagonal has formed in a wave one position. The internal structure of the diagonal is 3-3-3-3-3, with several of the waves as complex waves. So now that the downside wave one is complete, obviously a wave two correction is next. The 50.0% fibo is at 2.0022.

If you do a comparison chart of EUR/USD and GBP/USD together, you notice that these two pairs are also trading in lockstep. A turn in EUR coincides with a turn in GBP. So a break higher in EUR/USD from the triangle it's in will coincide with the wave two retracement in GBP/USD. And of course, once the EUR/USD rally is complete, the GBP/USD correction will be complete as well and we'll see the declines in both finally accelerate.
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Usd/chf
Here's a similiar story for USD/CHF. So far there are four waves down from 20Dec2007 high of 1.1594. In the same fashion as EUR/USD, we're seeing a barrier triangle form in USD/CHF as a fourth wave. The spike we saw today was wave 'A' of wave 'E' of that triangle. We'll see another spike in the next few days to complete the triangle and then one final push lower to complete the impulsive decline.

Wave one was 758 points. We should see something similiar for wave five. A nice trade awaits...
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And Now USD/JPY
The USD/JPY has a similiar pattern as the rest of the majors. While the EUR and CHF are tracing out triangles, the USD/JPY seems to be almost finished with a complex A-B-C-X-A-B-C correction.

The short term rally that took place today was in five small waves and could be wave '1' of 'C.' So as a short term trade idea for tomorrow, I'll be looking to take a long up to previous highs (~103.00) with an initial stop at the lows of the rally that we saw today (100.02). And once I get in the money a bit I'll move stops to breakeven.

Just to validate this pattern, you can do a comparison chart with USD/CHF and see that the two pairs are trading together. So once the USD/CHF completes the triangle and begins it's decline, we'll see USD/JPY fall as well.
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hefeiddd

So Far So Good....
So far this GBP/JPY count has held up. Thoughts??


Tom
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How about this one, Tonyk and Mktwaves2
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hefeiddd

Here's the 4hr chart of the USD/CHF. The Dollar Index is almost the same. The EUR/USD is either in some complex correction before heading higher, or it's completing an ending diagonal.

1.5510 is key for the bullish outlook, and 1.5340 is absolutely vital. As for the USD/CHF, 1.0216 should hold.

American-TAttached Thumbnails

hefeiddd

Ok guys... I'm back with some more on USDCHF... I'm still holding my long position .. But I gotta tell ya.. this long term chart has had me fooled for the longest time... I think I've got it right now though... It's the Dam "B" wave within this huge larger "B" wave that's had me fooled... I've been grilling my mind all day on this picking apart waves.... I think after looking at my new count... It looks like USDCHF is in for a small wave 4 correction before it puts in one more final multi year low and then it's off to the races in a huge "C" wave that should penetrate 1.3284 and complete a Long Term wave 4... I HATE "B" WAVES !!! ..

Anyway .. here's a new chart...Attached Images

hefeiddd

Playing around with some charts and then was thinking about how some pairs were trading the same as others and some were trading opposite. I looked at 6 pairs and compared them. It is pretty small but you can see the charts below. Besides, they say a picture is worth a thousand words so have a look.
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hefeiddd

EUR/USD short term bullish and bearish possibilities
Hi guys, after staring at the EUR/USD chart for most of the day, I came up with two opposing views. Opposing in the the short term basis, that is, because we all know that the long term trend is still up. The first count is very similar to Jamie's count. I posted it earlier today. Here's the chart again.

This count assumes that the correction is not over. The new high that we see today is just the momentum extreme of an expanded flat. If this is the case, The wave C down could reach the 1.5500's or even the 1.5300's.
The is the possibility that I initially came up with. I shorted at 1.5870 with stop loss just above today's high at 1.5920. I am still holding that position. It's currently trading at 1.5764.
However, after looking at the chart at different time periods again, I had an alternating view. It looks like we are already in the middle of wave (5) and it's unfolding into a 5th wave ending diagonal.

This is assuming that the drop to 1.5342 completed a larger wave (4) and wave (5) started right there. To be exact, we are in wave 3 of (5) now. If this is the case, the ascend will be slow and painful, because each wave in a diagonal should consist of three waves. I see only 1 up for wave 3. It's going to take days to complete the process. One problem I have with this count is that the larger wave (4) looks too simple, very uncharacteristic of a wave 4.
It's currently trading at the bottom of an up channel. By candlestick pattern this is extremely bullish. Despite the drop today, the moving averages and MACD are still giving bullish signals. I am going to keep an eye on the price action tonight. If it goes up to 1.58 I'll bail out of my short position for a 70 point gain and wait for the next time it drops to the bottom of the channel to go long. If it drops through the bottom of the channel then it's very possible that a larger correction is underway.
Of course another possibility is that the triangle is still in tact. Wave D exceeded the extreme of wave B, but not by much, can rules really be that strict? There might still be a wave E after all.

hefeiddd

Cable
Anyone has a decent count on cable ?! The more I look at it the more I'm getting convinced it's a bullish outlook not bearish. It could be my imagination but I see a good long entry in 1.9600 area if it gets there .
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Ray, that was my original count before wave 4 went through the end of wave 1 as shown on your chart. I had to scratch that count and look for an altenative.The best I came up so far is that ending diagonal I posted above.

Outside of EW that's a bullish formation. Also bellow is 4H chart showing even bigger wedge with a ending target 1.9600/9530. And since there's an agreement that the dollar is ready to fall further I just don't see the cable going down when all the majors would be going up.
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hefeiddd

Hi Jimbo

I have the following which is not so different to yours, i am having an issue with wave 4 , which for a brief period got into wave one by a few pips!!

But agree that 196 would be a area to re look at things.

let me know your thoughts.

regards

RayAttached Images

hefeiddd

Eurjpy
EURJPY beautifully trapped between 50% & 61.8% levels. A close above 161.4 would certainly be a bullish signal and could possibly take the cross up to the downward trendline, which now crosses at 165.
As for RSI, pretty useless here. Seems to bounce from bearish to bullish to bearish and bullish again in less than four months.
I wouldn't quite say that there's a triangle being built here (see weekly chart), but it is starting to look like a major congestion zone quite similar to what we've seen after the 2003 high. And quite frankly, that scares me.
The only thing that supports my bearish theory is the RSI in the weekly chart staying in the bearish range.
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hefeiddd

Nzd Usd
Hello guys
It looks like NZDUSD might be forming a head and shoulder pattern today.
If you like trading head and shoulders, you should pay attention, as it might develop into a good opportunity.
Mike
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hefeiddd

EUR/USD Triangle
Here's a close-up of the triangle forming in EUR/USD. If we can get another small decline, that would complete wave 'E' in three waves and complete the triangle. USD/CHF has the same price action, execpt inverse.
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hefeiddd

Mike

I shorted the pair yesterday just over 200.00 and am still holding it open at the moment. Below is a 1 hour chart with trend lines from the daily chart showing in green. The upper line is off the October 30 high and the lower is off the March 16 low. It seems to be a nice triangle with the lower line being tested again. I assume a break should come soon. Comments?Attached Images

hefeiddd

I do not want to be patronizizng and i apologize if it sounded this way.
But, some other eliotticians on this forum could question your "triangle" (not so much the shape, but the selection of words)

On the weekly chart i plotted some numbers. We should see another drop soon that will complete wave 3 down. wave i was about 2000 pips, so wave v might be similar in length, meaning the level of approximately 180.
180 will correspond nicely with long term support line (in red) going back few years.

MikeAttached Thumbnails

hefeiddd

I attached the 15 minute chart for the USD/JPY which shows an impulsive decline supported by the triangle in the 4th wave. It appears to be breaking out of that triangle now. If that happens, then it will complete a 5 wave decline. This means there's a high probability the pair is on its way to a new low now.

American-T
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Yeah it looks like the USD/CHF and USD/JPY are offering us the clearest wave counts for the dollar. I'm short both obviously, and have just a mild long position on the EUR/USD until I figure out what count it's playing out. But I know the dollar is bearish right now. I attached a short term outlook on the pair, but the larger outlook is uncertain. I have stops very tight. I posted the wave count I have for the EUR/USD. I don't like it, but with the bullish outlook for the pair, I'm using it for now.

I had heavy short stock market positions from Dow 13,800 and exited them when the Dow rallied back up to 12,465 off its lows Not a place I wanted to exit, but I thought we completed primary wave 1 (or possible an ABC correction) and were set for a long deep primary wave 2 or worse. Not happening yet though. Need more time and waves to elapse to call the correction complete, if it is actually a correction. I'm wary of a new low if it's within a few weeks as it may just be a B wave within a flat correction. But overall, I"m bearish this market. Just don't have a position in yet.

American-T
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