一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

On a short term, i believe that GBPJPY just completed 5 waves today and now we are in the "no man's land" until further movement.
Here is my chart; i ma just waiting for the other shoe to drop.
In the meantime, the peaks are getting smaller and smaller....
MikeAttached Thumbnails

hefeiddd

USDJPY is running quickly out of wiggle room. Moment of truth, i suppose.
My bias is to the downside.
note that it tried to hit the bottom line 3 times today, now the third time should be lucky. Also, it barely touched 100 earlier today, so i will expect support there. Plus, it is a strong psychological barrier. Many options, puts/ calls/ margin calls will be activated once we hit 100.
MikeAttached Thumbnails

hefeiddd

USD/CHF - Almost there
Hey Guys,

Here's my thoughts for USD/CHF. The first chart is the longer term showing the triangle. The second chart is showing (in red letters) waves 'A' and 'B' of wave 'E' of the triangle. Wave 'B' of 'E' subdivided into a three wave pattern and has found support right at the 61.8% fibo of the rally we saw yesterday. Furthermore, waves 'A' and 'C' of that wave 'B' are nearly equal at 81 and 93 points.

Also, wave 'A' of wave 'E' will equal wave 'C' of wave 'E' when price is trading right at the triangle resistance line. That price is at ~1.0190.


Have a good weekend.
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hefeiddd

Speaking of wiggle room here is a chart of the USD/CHF which is in the same position. The GBP/JPY also stayed within the trend lines taken off the Oct 30 high and March 16 low as I posted earlier.Attached Images

hefeiddd

Usdcad
Maybe another possability here for USDCAD
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hefeiddd

Gbpjpy
GBPJPY looks to be heading down to complete a termianl impulse...
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hefeiddd

usdchf
I am undecided with this pair... But I know a hammer after a down trend represents a major reversal... so I keep trying to think of ways to fit this factor into the count... Plus we're right on 161.8 fib resistance level... Will be interesting to see how it plays out...
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hefeiddd

Eurcad
EURCAD got right back up near it's prior highs real quick... Watch for a continuation... I think we just might keep heading up further.... The monthly chart looks very bullish...
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hefeiddd

I still think it needs a "c" wave in the wave 4 correction to complete the structure first. At least that is what I am hoping so that I can get in before it goes higher.Attached Images






Brad

I got out of my 211.70 entry for a small profit yesterday on the dip just below the 211.50 mark. I was able to get back in above the 212.00 mark and would be in profit if the spread were not as big as it is, but that is nothing to worry about.

The pair has been up and down like a yo-yo in the past few days and seems to be in a familiar pattern like many other currency pairs are at the moment. I think this pair is heading south at some point next week. Maybe it will heading to the same place you were just visiting.
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Thought for fun I would take a shot at the EUR/USD pair and see what I came up with on the hourly charts. I believe we are working on a wave "b" back up to the area of the new high before we decline a bit. The green lines are from the triangle lines on the daily chart. Comments?
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hefeiddd

Usdjpy
Got an idea here for USDJPY....
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Here's a slightly different view for USDJPY... same kind of idea ...
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hefeiddd

Usdjpy
Quote:

Originally Posted by brad_1199 Here's a slightly different view for USDJPY... same kind of idea ...

Let's try this one on for size too while we're at it...
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USDJPY tricky tricky ??
Will be interesting to see how this plays out..
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hefeiddd

EURUSD Possability...
I saw someone post a long term chart predicting a major top foe EURUSD coming up... I think you might be right on the money... But this pair is unpredictable... Just have to keep our eyes peeled
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Helps if you look at the candles a bit closer up on the monthly chart .....
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hefeiddd

EUR/USD Long Term
Hey Guys,

Last week some people were posting their long term counts of EUR/USD. I've got a different view of that one. I think that rather than being an impulsive move, the huge rally we have seen in the last several years is just part of a correction. I count the entire rally from way back in 1985 as an A-B-C-X-A-B-C correction. The rally that began in 2000 is wave 'C' of that correction.

The first chart below shows how I'm counting EUR/USD long term charts. The second chart is a comparison chart of EUR/USD and AUD/USD. A while back Jamie posted a long term chart of AUD/USD showing an impulsive decline with a three wave corrective rally. The corrective rally is what's shown on the chart. You can see that both currencies are tracking together, so it makes sense that EUR/USD is just correcting.

Once we finish wave 'C' of the large correction, it'll be time to take on a different bias for the EUR/USD as we see price turn lower.
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hefeiddd

EUR/USD long term is making waves in this forum. Here's my take:

I attach a weekly chart for the rally from 1.1638 beginning Nov 2005 which I label as a wave (III)

Note that this is a completely subjective view. I wouldn't label this whole thing as part of a correction, or part of an impulse wave, because I don't know the price movement before that. The chart only goes back to 1985. If this thing is part of a correction, then a correction of what? What I see is that from the period of 1985 to 2001, there are 5 impulse waves and a correction. That's the end of one cycle. Then from 2001 onwards, there is another possible impulse ascend which is not even close to completion. I'd say 2.0 is attainable within the next 2 to 3 years if you ask me. But I agree with most people that this pair is close to a mid term top, and a correction is due, or shall I say overdue?
Until someone comes up with the complete history of the price action of the pair, or a chart that goes back about 100 years, maybe we can have a general idea of the trend of what Elliot called the grand supercycle.
Another note: The Euro was launched in 1999. The data before that is just an average of a basket of currencies. I'm really not sure of its significance in the long term outlook.

hefeiddd

EUR/USD 60 Minute chart as of now. Possible scenarios:

1. ABC completed at the low. Move higher from here.
2. Working on a 5 down. Any move under the tonight's low completes 5 down.

Could easily see a move under 1.56 where wave 5 would be 1.5 X wave 1 (from these levels). This would not change the overall bullish view of many but would fit in nicely with the correction camp.

Daily osc are rolling over pointing down from over bought levels. 30 minute and 60 minute are mixed.

Opinions?
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Hi Ray,

This is the count I'm following. I posted this chart the other day so it's a little old but it still works. I think the rally today is wave two of a new bear leg. Wave one was a leading diagonal. Fibo retracements come into play at 1.9934 - 2.0110.
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hefeiddd

cable
Hi All

How does the count below fit with people? please let me know if i have labeled things against EW rules correctly!

From the below providing we don't go into wave 1 then surely a wave 5 must follow?

Jamie what do you make of the below?

regards

Ray
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hefeiddd

I went short on this pair at just above 212.00. The major trend is down as you can see price is also staying below the trend line from the Aug 16 high of 2.5638. I am having a challenge with labelling the hourlies with this new spike as it invalidated a count I had. My overall count is still valid but this 5 wave spike doesn't fit properly so I will post a chart of the hourlies when I have something new completed.Attached Images

hefeiddd

Well I have what I think is possibly an accurate count of the EUR/USD. Although I'm not sure where it fits into the overall picture at this time. ???

hefeiddd

I use the VT platform and the values on the chart are different from your....
This is my count...Attached Thumbnails

hefeiddd

Gbp Jpy
Good Morning guys
Here is my take at the GBPJPY again with the newest chart atached.
It looks to me that we are entering wave 3 of III right now, whiich will take us down to the level of 195 area.
If you want to trade this pair, now might be a good time to enter.
Mike
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