一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

The count of GBP/USD has been brought up several times. Here's my take on the shorter term basis. This is to count the decline from 2.0048 in 5 waves. Just my opinion. Discussion/correction welcome.
Chart taken 4/8 3:30 pm ET





The beauty of Elliot Wave. It's amazing how it works out. Look at this USD/JPY 4 hr chart. The triangles show a wave (b) consolidation. EW states that "wave D can never exceed the extreme of wave B." The chart shows the high of wave B at 102.85. Wave D hits exactly 102.85 and retraces. It played out perfectly, this one. Wave E is in progress now. Once it's completed, there should be a thrust upward that propels it well beyond 103. Should that happen, it's a good time to look for short opportunities, because it has a long long way to fall.

hefeiddd

Just looking back at your chart and it is playing out as you have it drawn out with the arrow. Once we finish wave 2 (possibly done now) and start wave 3 of the correction down, it should play out perfect.Attached Images

hefeiddd

Looks like a Triangle brkout ---with 4hr close
break out with the abcde y'all have been describing

Looking for a retest of the TL to crap shoot the last squeeze north
in this move
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Here's the Euro hrly with fibs & TL fr 5904





---really agree with The Wavez's take on the Cable
and have been and will continue to short into this pre-MPC rate news
rally --
seems just along for the Euro ride in here

scalping and position garnering
anywhere near 9780s & above to the 61.8 (9820) to the 9926 peak




~~make yur Luck/work the luck~~
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hefeiddd

Eur/gbp
Hey Guys,

Here's a possible count for EUR/GBP. Looking at the four hour chart, an ending diagonal may be forming in a fifth wave.
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hefeiddd

I show a slightly different count of last few days.
On the attached 30 min chart you will see just the last section of the current pattern.
Instead of the ending diagonal I show a 5 wave impulsive wave, not complete yet.
Wave 1 was 72 pips, wave 3 135 pips; assuming that wave 5 is equal to 1, we should see the top around 0.8037

But, please use caution, the top might be extended or a blow off, since it will be a major turning point.

MikeAttached Thumbnails

hefeiddd

OK, here is a look at a EUR/USD 60 Minute chart as of now. After putting together input from AT and others here is what I have. The possible wave d end?
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You ask you get. :-) This is the daily version of the chart without the wave d subdivisions.
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hefeiddd

Gold....Again
Hey Guys,

Here's another take on the Gold chart. There are three waves down from the all-time highs so far. The question is wether or not this decline will turn out impulsive or just merely a correction. It is possible that this three wave decline is just wave 'A' of a correction such as a flat or complex correction. A few days back somebody mentioned that fourth wave corrections aren't usually this violent, which is correct. A flat/complex correction could possibly explain that question away. This could also explain why higher gold in conjunction with lower EUR/USD is possible. Gold could trace out this flat/complex while the EUR/USD retraces in the larger fourth wave that's about to kick off. Once EUR/USD bottoms out and turns higher again, so might gold.

What do you guys think?
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hefeiddd

Gold
Justy, as I mentioned, my view on the 3rd and 4th wave is in principle similar to yours. However, I think we may be whitnessing a temporary top here. Look at the interesting fibonacci levels. Blue lines are levels within 3rd wave, red lines are levels within the smaller drop from the top of end March (I don't see this as a separate wave though).
Now we are still within bollinger bands which means the picture is still bearish and a further drop may take us down all the way to the 50% fibonacci, probably in June or July. That 50% fibonacci is an important level as it corresponds with November 2007 highs.
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hefeiddd

Usdjpy
This is the (slightly altered) wavecount that I posted some days ago. I still see the USDJPY dipping underneath 100 before testing the 38.2% fibonacci. RSI clearly finds some resistance now around 60. Pressure obviously comes from the EUR/USD testing the previous high.
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hefeiddd

Not sure what triangle you are refering to but here is what I see happening at the moment.Attached Images

hefeiddd

Eurusd
Here an analysis of the Eur/Usd (shamelessly stolen from Lars Lindgren...)
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hefeiddd

Actually I agree mostly with tonyk. I have a slight different structure but also favor a larger "expanded flat" correction. The reason I come to that conclusion is that I don't see anything impulsive in the move to the 1.5900's. Who can count five wave up, or at least in the early stages of forming?








eurusd
eurusd correction structure
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hefeiddd

I am short again at just above 200.00. I closed out my first short yesterday at 200.750 for a profit. Here is the chart I am following.Attached Images

hefeiddd

Eur Usd
Here is my chart for EURUSD.
Sorry, guys, but to me the bullish argument seems much stronger than the opposite.
If you ask me, we are seeing wave 4 at the moment that will go to 1.58
It will be followed by wave 5; if wave 5 is equal to wave 1, we should see the top around 1.607
But, we should monitor the developments over the course of the day and count minuette waves.
Mike
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hefeiddd

My view on the GBPUSD as I mentioned it in the technicals. That is, as long as price is below 2.0047, I expect the decline to accelerate.Attached Images

hefeiddd

Usd/jpy
Hey Guys,

What is your take on the USD/JPY short term? This rally seems impulsive to me. The count below is a bullish possibility.
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USD/JPY - Again
Well, there are five up on the short term now. If the next decline comes as a three wave move, I'll be looking to get long again until I see somthing change.
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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-5-8 12:24 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

Usdchf Major Reversal
I posted a few weeks back looking for a major reversal in USDCHF .. I believe we have hit the Large "B" Wave bottom I have been waiting for... Price has formed a Hammer right on the 161.8 Fibonacci resistance level which I believe will reverse this pair upward and eventually it should penetrate 1.3284 in a Large Wave "C" of a 4th wave correction long term... I am currently holding long this pair with a stop below the bottom of the hammer..
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hefeiddd

Eur/usd
What you think about my counts...black or red ??
If you agree about one of this, what you think about the target ??

My targets are 15500-15520 for the black one
and 15620-15630 for the red one....
Thanks.



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hefeiddd

Usd/chf
I'm actually looking to get long USD/CHF. The two hour chart below shows a possible bullish count. I'm waiting for todays rally to correct, then I'll look for an entry.
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hefeiddd

Justy
I will attempt to count those waves differently with the bearish perspective in mind.
According to my count the rally this morning was a minor wave 2.
Now it looks like we formed a double top and will descend lower in minor wave 3.Attached Thumbnails