一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

Eur/jpy
Hey Guys,

Here's a possible short term count for EUR/JPY. A W-X-Y correction could have taken place as a larger wave two. The most recent decline from 158.34 that took place today can be counted in five waves. If we can get a three wave rally, I'll be looking to enter this one on the short side with risk just above that 158.34 high.
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hefeiddd

EURUSD Entering Strong Upward Trend ?
I watched an online seminar this weekend by a professional investor and I remember him saying that he would not enter a position until the ADX is reading above 40 confirming a strong trend under way... Well, by taking a quick look at the EURUSD monthly chart, ADX is now above 40 and all indicators are pointing to higher prices... Looks like EURUSD may be heading a lot higher... I'm through trying to call a top in this pair unless it wants to prove me wrong... Maybe I'll just hop on board and join the bulls now....
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hefeiddd

Here is the chart I follow. GBPJPY is starting wave 1 down now, as of last Friday, or will start very soon, within next day.
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hefeiddd

Here is my count for EURUSD.
MACD seems to support this hypothesis.
Target for wave 5 of 3 should be around 1.5971, followed by wave 4, which will go down to 1.45Attached Thumbnails

hefeiddd

Further, closer blowup of EURUSD chart on 3o min intervals.Attached Thumbnails

hefeiddd

Looks like we are right back into the consolidation after the quick spike. I think we will need to wait until the start of the new day and new month in the asian session before we see anything really significant happen.Attached Images








Eurusd Hourly Chart
I don't usually do the shorter time frames... but here's a look at the EURUSD hourly....
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hefeiddd

Euro
Here is what I think is happening with the EUR/USD. If my count is correct then the first leg of W-X-Y correction is completed. So is wave (A) of X and now wave (B) of X is in progress.

Anyways from trading prospective since wave (A) of X was in five waves we could expect wave (B) to be in three and a long at the bottom of (B) somewhere between 50% and 61.8% retracement might be a good idea with a tight stop of course.
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eurgbp
I know some of you follow eur/gbp
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hefeiddd

Triangle Complete????
I am not really well versed in triangles (Tend to stay away), but thought I would throw this out here. 15 waves by this count. Thoughts???
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Hello Twszatny
triangles occur, such as in this case, in wave 4 and are a continuation pattern. Once the triangle is complete, the next wave 5 will go in the same direction, as wave 3.
So, I expect that this triangle will break to the upside and i still expect price to reach at least 1.5971, or better, despite the fact that some people on this forum do not share my view, which I fully respect.
I took the liberty of copying your chart and putting my own count over yours. I hope, you don't mind. I counted the legs of the triangle differently, a-b-c-d-e.
Mike
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hefeiddd

I think you are right with this count Mike. I originally had the spike (D in the above chart you have) as a possible 5 and the current down trend as a possible wave A. However seeing that the pair has returned to the triangle I believe we are still be in wave 4 with wave 5 still coming.Attached Images

hefeiddd

Hi Jimbo

I am following the count below! I have it as 5 complete, or aleast i hope so!
Is there anyone who would like to comment on both these count? Jimbo is there any other reason that wave 5 may not be complete? Nice to have differnt counts to compare.

Let me know your thoughts.

thanks

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hefeiddd

I'm back from vacation and it looks like just in time for a reversal. If you have seen today's techs, I am treating 1.5904 as a wave 3 of III top. As such, the EURUSD is headed towards at least 1.4900, probably this month.
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hefeiddd

This is the most bearish count for the EURUSD. Under this count, a 3rd is underway now and the EURUSD will drop quickly for the next few days.
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hefeiddd

Eur/usd
This is the count I'm following for EUR/USD. Under this count, wave one is complete at the 1.5562 low. I'm looking to get short somewhere near the 50.0% fibo or the area around the previous fourth wave of one lessor degree.
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Cad/jpy
Here's a pretty good looking setup in CAD/JPY. It looks like price is nearing the end of a wave four correction, and that one more low is required to complete a larger five wave decline.
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hefeiddd

Eurusd
EURUSD has completed wave (W) of the complex flat W-X-Y. Currently wave (X) is underway (please reference my last EURUSD post). So far, waves A of (X) and B of (X) have been completed, and wave C of (X) is underway. If my count is correct, wave 1 of C should complete around the 32.8% fib support level, and wave 2 should complete on the retest of trendline and 50.0% fib level.

This count supports the current price developments in the commodities, specifically gold. The EW analysis on gold below reveals that gold is undergoing a correction, and has thus far completed waves A and B. Currently wave C is underway, with waves 1, ii, and ii completed. Wave iv of C should complete on retest of trendline resistance (now support) around the 900-910 prices. Wave v will be the final stretch of the correction which will end probably at the 38.2% retracement level at 840-850 prices, then gold should rally to take out recent high.

Note that the charts below also reveal that wave 1 of C on the EURUSD chart is in sync with wave iv of C of the count on the gold chart. In addition, EURUSD wave 2 of C will also sync with gold wave v of C.

These counts are probably valid because both analysts and traders alike are using gold (and oil) as proxy to predict future price directions in EURUSD (as well as the traditional commodity pairs such as AUDUSD, etc).

Anyone wishes to comment on the above analysis? All feedbacks are welcome.



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hefeiddd

Eur/usd
a = 125 pips
if c = a .....1,5632 + 125 pips = 1,5757
a retracement of 61,8% of wave 1 is 1,5758.....
I will wait this level to short
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hefeiddd

Possible end to this uptrend now that price has started to retreat a bit. The green line in the top right corner is a trend line off the highs from the daily chart.
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I have mine labelled differently. Possibly wave 5 down.
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hefeiddd

I have updated my chart and believe that we should now be in the 5th wave down. I believe that this afternoons price action completed a 3 wave correction which would be wave 4 completed. This may also be the wave 1 and 2 of the larger bear trend that takes us back to the 1.46-1.49 region. Being still new at this any feedback is welcome.Attached Images







Trying to work with a few different pairs to learn a bit more. I believe that wave 5 was completed with the top at .7981 and now is a larger wave A correction which could take us to just above the former wave 4 low which was just under .7400. I have this chart as wave 1 down complete and into wave A of the corrective wave 2. Am I making any sense? Comments?
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hefeiddd

Hi Market,

I don't post charts with MACD or any other indicators here because I don't use those items with Elliott Wave trading. But, here is how I do use the MACD as a trading system:

The way most people use these indicators is to buy when there is a 'crossover' or take a bullish or bearish stance when there is a certain reading on some indicator. I don't really agree with that so much. What I'm concerned with is the 'trend' of the indicator, MACD specifically.

I first look at the daily MACD. Is the MACD trending up or down? Not the trend of price action, but of the MACD. In the example below of USD/JPY, the Daily MACD turned lower on 26 Feb, so I was looking for setups on the short side. The second step is to drill down to the 60 minute chart. Now I'm looking again at the trend of the MACD. Since the daily MACD is trending lower, I am looking to see that when the 60 minute MACD trends lower price action follows suit and heads lower as well. This just confirms the trend. Then I look for the MACD to turn higher and begin an uptrend. When I see this, I look up to the price chart and what I'm looking for is price to be moving horizontal rather than following the MACD up. When I see this consolidation I just bracket the highs and lows of that consolidation. When price breaks lower, I go short with a 50 point target for 1/2 of my position and a 100 point target for the 2nd 1/2. When the first 50 point target is hit, I move my remaining stops to breakeven. The original stops are placed just above the highs of the horizontal range.

The second chart shows the same setup using a weekly/daily chart combination for longer swing trades. There aren't too many of these, but when a setup does occur, a nice trade usually follows.

The daily/60 minute system usually gives about 2 to 5 signals a month and so far has been pretty reliable.Attached Thumbnails  

hefeiddd

I rarely use oscillators, but when I do, I use rate of change. Rate of change tends to be strongest at the beginning or middle of a trend. In other words, a very strong + ROC following a market low indicates to me that a new bull is in force. In other words, the ROC 'announces' that the bull has started. A perfect example is 12 month ROC in the Dow. One might think that the strongest 12 month ROC was during the 80's or tech bubble. In actuality, the strongest ROC was in the 1930s. This 'announced' that a great bull had started.Attached Images

hefeiddd

Below are a 15 min and a monthly chart I posted earlier this morning when the EUR/USD was trading at 1.5610 that I posted in the EUR/USD forum section. Please note that the projected wave 3 should be wave (3) to differentiate it from other subwaves labeled. I just thought I'd drop them off here with my comments from last post to get feedback from you all. I'm extremely bullish on this pair against 1.5570 as I see a new high is needed to complete a 5 wave rally of (v) of 3.

Prior post from EUR/USD section:

With the pair completing two five wave advances from 1.5531 to just at least just above 1.5701, the bullish count remains solid. The key level for this move is 1.5576. With another five wave rally complete with the break of psychological level 5700, the pair may take a break and pull back some, perhaps to the low 5600s. But it will just provide another buying opportunity against 1.5570. This should be the early stages of the pair on its way to making a new all time high. I saw this move coming yesterday, but I was a bit too early. Today looks better.

This pair looks well poised to be on its way to a new high, and inversely, the dollar to a new low. This will complete the five wave advance to complete v of 5 of 3.

American-T
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