一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

Below are the only two viable wave counts for the EUR/USD, and both are ultimately bullish. The immediate bullish count is the preferred count as long as 1.5577 isn't broken. If it does, then the triangle will move to the forefront.

One key element these two counts have in common:

1.5531 will not be broken before a new all time high is achieved.


American-T
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hefeiddd

Justy, good writeup ...

I use the RSI indicator to signal turns in price trends. However, I only use it when I am trying to predict the end of wave 5 of intermediate or primary degree in my EW analysis. For example, the chart below illustrates how I used RSI to predict the turn in the most recent EURUSD price trend. Note that the RSI indicator printed a lower high on 03/17 than the high on 02/27 then trended down thereafter. In contrast, prior to 02/27, the EURUSD trended up as it underwent wave 5. The change in EURUSD price trend was confirmed when the RSI printed a lower high on 03/26, and the price trend subsequently printed the lower high labeled wave 2. The dressing is put on the cake when the drop from wave 2 high in the price trend test and break the inner most trendline, which hasn't occur yet.

For the break of inner trendline, I look for a bearish candle with the body completely below the trendline. When this occurs, price trend should then move to take out the intermediate trendline, then the outer trendline (not shown on chart).Attached Thumbnails

hefeiddd

Eurusd
Here is my new count ... I am currently using gold as a proxy to EURUSD so I also post a gold chart ... lower gold implies higher greenback, which implies lower EURUSD. I am expecting the current 5-wave of higher degree down in EURUSD to end when wave v in the gold count ends.
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hefeiddd

Nzdusd
Here is my NZDUSD count ... looking to get short at 61.8% retracement level with stop behind 0.7995.
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correction to my last EURUSD post ... corrected waves i and ii placements.
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hefeiddd

Here is my current USDCAD count.
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hefeiddd

eur
Hi Guys

this is what i see, i wonder if anyone can comment, Jamie are you following the same count?


iii of 3 we could be in for nice afternoon?

Thanks

Ray
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hefeiddd

Possible expanded flat on EURUSD?
Hi everybody,
here is a probable scenario to keep in mind if the current favorable wave count fails. Wave ii could be an expanding flat, with wave C of the A-B-C correction underway now. Under this scenario price should exceed 1.57.
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hefeiddd

AT, here is my GBPUSD count ... can you post yours so that we can compare/contrast ... thanksAttached Thumbnails  

hefeiddd

Eurcad
Anyone pay attention to my post for the long term EURCAD last month ?? Price has closed last month above a long term down trend line indicating upside potential.. I'm looking to get long EURCAD after a retracement.... Watch the daily's for a buy
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hefeiddd

Thought I would throw this out here. This is the GBP/JPY count I am following at the moment.
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Hi Gizmo.. I'm looking to get long right around 1.5500 which is the 50% Fib retracement of the last large rally... I think this next rally could extend a lot higher, I'm setting a target for half of the position at the previous high and will be using a trailing stop to close out the second half.

Here's another chart for ya
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hefeiddd

Now that I am home and looking at my working charts I see what you are describing on the daily chart. I also have this as a wave 4 correction. I had resistance at 201.78 which was broken. Currently I believe we are in and possibly almost completed wave B or wave 4 following the count I have.

If we are entering C shortly then we should make it back to around the 201.00 level. From there it will either continue down or under the other scenario, go up to around the 210.00 or 211. level which is around the 50% fib line.

Anyone who is following this pair with more experience may have a different or more accurate count.Attached Images







This could be considered a wave A then?
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hefeiddd

Here's my short term 15 minute chart which shows a possible impulse rally, but it is very ugly to say the least, and my confidence in this is a bit low. Wave 3 is barely larger than wave 1, and wave 4 is much larger in time compared to wave two. It just doesn't look right.

I think it's important to allow for a setback into the mid/low 5600s, but keep in mind that pair is headed to new highs, so the larger trend is up.

American-T
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Here's the possible triangle that might be playing out. Seeing as that this fits into the "alternation" guideline in EW, and that last possible impulse rally (see my 15 min chart) was terribly ugly, this scenario is gaining stature. Under this scenario, the pair will also pull back to the low 5600s. So it appears some pullback is possible either way. I think it's important to remember that the larger trend is up, so it can go up at any time.

American-T
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hefeiddd

Here's my daily chart, showing the bigger picture. I don't maintain this count on my software so I put this together fairly quickly. Let me know there's an error. The bottom line is that we still need to complete a wave 5 to a new high, of 5 of 3.

American-T
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This one entertains me because I rarely trade it, but the crystal clear impulsive rally a couple weeks ago had me always looking higher in this pair. It's worked out well. I'm not totally confident in this exact wave count, so I'm going to remain flexible. However the rise looks impulsive, and it looks far from complete.

Congrats to anyone who jumped on this after my post, when the price dropped to around .9120 (stop below .9090) and got in at an excellent risk/reward ratio, which is what I'm all about.

American-T
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hefeiddd

Here is a chart of what I believe is happening with the EUR/GBP.
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With the spike above 205.00 overnight, I have modified my chart to make it more valid in my eyes. I believe we are either still in wave A or starting into wave B. Since I am still learning EW, are there any comments or changes that would make it more valid?
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hefeiddd

I would think a triangle is more appropriate than a larger flat. Correct me if I am wrong, but my understanding is that the internal structure of a triangle correction should be in 3's, which means that each of the ABCDE waves in a triangle should consist of 3 subwaves. A flat, on the other hand, is a 5-3-5 structure. I just don't see the decline from 1.5905 to 1.5342 as completed in 5 waves. Also, I have a hard time labeling the decline from 1.5895 to 1.5509 as wave 1 of C. The internal structure just looks weird.


Anyway, even if it's a flat, the end of wave C should not be too far away from the low of 1.5342, and it will eventually move up. Either way, the larger trend is up. A flat only implies a deeper correction.

hefeiddd

GBPJPYdaily040408.pdf (27.0 KB, 14 views)

EURJPY Uptrend Intact ??
I gotta say, EURJPY is quite the elusive pair !! Not too long ago price was looking like it was going to start to crumble... Now Look at it... Price is staying above the Long Term Up trend line and looks like it might continue higher now... My short was stopped out near break even for a small profit... Now I'm kind of thinking Bullish this pair again... Decisions Decisions...
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hefeiddd

Yeah, the EURJPY is one sick puppy...but if we look at the log scale chart (and I do believe that you should look at long term charts on log scale), then the line was broken in January. A re-test would be near 165 thoughAttached Images





Wave 3 about to begin??
I think Wave 3 is about to begin in EUR/USD. Thoughts??
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hefeiddd

I agree that the longer term picture is still pointing lower. The impulsive move that began way back in 1975 isn't complete yet. We still need to see another low (below 88.87) to complete that five wave move. Even if the fifth would come out as a truncated wave, there is still several thousand points of potential remaining.

The short term count I have below shows that one more high is required to complete an A-B-C correction that may complete the larger correction. Once this A-B-C is complete, we could possibly see the decline resume.Attached Images

hefeiddd

Gbp Jpy Weekly
Good Morning guys

Here is my chart of GBPJPY, weekly intervals.
No doubt, there was a head and shoulder situation.

It looks like we finished 3 waves down, now we are into wave 4 correction.
MACD confirms this wave count.
Wave 1 = 3195 pips
Wave 2 = 2220 pips
Wave 3 = 4910 pips
Wave 4 = started recently
Wave 5 = not started yet, but could be equal to Wave 1

I will post more charts with closer blowup later today to show more detail.
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Gbp Jpy Daily
Here is closer look at GBPJPY on the daily chart.
5 waves are finished now; at the moment we are undergoing wave 4 correction. Possibly, it can take us to the former wave 4 of lesser degree.
It looks like an A-B-C type correction, but who knows how it might play out yet.
For the time being we are still confined in the trading channel, but the pair will likely break it to the upside to complete the correction.
But, there is also a possibility that the correction might play out differently and it might be over even now, without reaching the destination point of 213, considering general weakness of GBP.
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hefeiddd

JAIME ...What Is Going On ?? EURNZD
Hey Jaime.. What's your take on EURNZD now ?? This pair is a bit whipsaw.. I'm not too sure about this one.. I posted months ago looking for an ABCDE triangle to play out when you we're looking for a buy that actually wasn't too far off the mark from where price started heading up.... It doesn't look like my count is playing out... I'm thinking it might be time to get long this pair soon if it gets much higher... It would have been a great buy a while back.. But I was too scared of the whipsaw action then... Price is wedged near a long term declining trend line... tough call right now.. But looks like there is big upside potential given the prior waves over the years... Yet so much bearish sentiment in the market in general now... Jeeze !! Decisions Decisions ... Little Help ?? Jaime.. Anyone..
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