一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

Gbpusd...
I noticed some similar price action taking place in GBPUSD... The last time price formed like this.. the following week was a major down week... Food for thought..
Attached Images

hefeiddd

This chart is a 4hr of the USD/CHF and it mirrors the dollar index so this is what I'm basing most of my analysis on. The triangle is almost complete, or is already complete as you can see in wave e. The dollar rallied further than I expected so I can see the market isn't quite ready to give it up yet. 1.0216 is key resistence to keep the triangle in tact.

American-TAttached Thumbnails





Here is a 1hr chart of the EUR/USD and is what I saw this morning. I saw a 5 wave rise, then a 3 wave pullback. Going by EW's "right look", and proportion for time of the correction, I saw this morning as a golden opportunity to go long this pair against the recent low it made. That was wrong as it made another low. However it's still a 3 wave pullback, and it bounced off the 61% fib, so it's quite possible it will turn aggressively higher from here. However, the USD/CHF shows it can still rally more, and inversely the EUR/USD has little more to fall before the correction gets too deep to keep the trade at a high probability.

I'm still short the dollar by going long the EUR/USD and short the USD/CHF and USD/JPY. But I'm not sure how much more pain I'll have to endure before the dollar finally turns down towards a new low (or new high for the EUR/USD).

American-T
Attached Thumbnails

hefeiddd

Thank you. I went back and read my comment from earlier and everyone in this forum that was confused had every right to be. I just wrote my thoughts down quick as it was a busy morning, but in hindsight it wasn't very clear at all without the chart. I wrote that whole comment in about 10 seconds, then quickly pasted it to other forum sections, lol.

Here's a closer look at what might be happening right now on the EUR/USD 30min chart. This is reflective of the dollar as a whole (only opposite for the dollar). What gives me confidence in this count is the 5 wave rally prior, the 3 wave setback to 61% fibonacci that has held all afternoon, and now the rally above 1.5811 which was prior resistence. If my count is right, then the pair better continue rallying into the European session as part of a small degree wave iii. At a minimum, I'd like to see some follow through above 1.5811 again, and have it trade above there for a while.

Also, if this is correct and the EUR/USD has formed a bottom at 1.5750, that could mean the USD/JPY and USD/CHF have put tops in. So the overall theme is towards dollar weakness.

American-TAttached Thumbnails

hefeiddd

Flat on EU after there was no huge burst.

Here's a count on GBPJPY of a possible triangle pattern forming.
I'm short, but will reverse with evidence of the alternate variation.

hefeiddd

Here's a perfect example of a "perfect triangle" that fooled us. I was talking about this triangle formation earlier today with some other people. It was supposed to correlate with the dollar dropping across the board. The idea was that the triangle would be the last 4th wave before the CHF took off which in turn meant the USD would drop. You couldn't ask for a more perfect looking setup. Textbook.

Here's what happened instead. :-)

I'm not saying what will happen next. I'm only commenting on the "busted" formation and how sometimes even the most perfect setup may not always bring the expected results.
Attached Images

hefeiddd

AT,

Here's another look at the situation on a 30 minute chart of the EUR/USD. The alternate count is what I am preferring at the moment. Any break of the session low around 1.5760 should validate it. Although your count does look fine to me as well, no doubt.

I would hook this up to Jamie's longer term chart as far as the count goes. This could be the first small wave of a larger C wave correction.Attached Thumbnails

hefeiddd

Euro
I would be very careful if long on euro. What makes me nervous is the divergence with that up move. The whole move might be a wave B as triangle in larger A-B-C correction.
Attached Images

hefeiddd

Hi Chakow,

Looking at the 15 minute chart of USD/CHF, you can count a completed A-B-C rally which could have completed wave 'E' of the triangle. Wave 'C' can be counted in a five with an extended third wave.

Looking forward now, if this new decline unfolds in an impulsive way, look to get short on a pullback.

The second chart is a possibility for EUR/JPY. A possible flat could be forming now and if so could be near a top soon. I'll be looking to get short once I see a five down move on the 15 or 60 minute charts.Attached Images

hefeiddd

OK. Here is my quick take on the daily EUR/USD chart as of now after the breakout to new highs. I know people are now calling for much higher levels (which may certainly happen) but the case can be made that we have hit the top already or are very close to it.

The count could be complete right here. It's not to say we can't extend but a case could be made that we have topped.

1. There are some interesting distance relationships between the waves.
2. There is so far non-confirmation from the osc. (could be confirmed with more time at these levels).
3. Threat of intervention still looms.
4. There is Jamie's cycle work published yesterday.
Attached Thumbnails

hefeiddd

cable
Here's a look at what may be happening to cable.

I have the following, does anyone else have a count?

Thanks

Ray
Attached Images

hefeiddd

Eur/usd
This is my count....
Attached Thumbnails

hefeiddd

Hi Brad thanks for bringing this to our attension. I have attached the long term week chart that i am following.

If price on this weeks close comes near the low of the week ie 19600 then very valid however a green candle would not inspire me. the other thing to look at is my indicators the blue and red line. See how the line is huged in a down trend and up in a up trend. If we get a cross the bull will be raging.

regards

RayAttached Images

hefeiddd

More follow through into the 1.60s at least. The USD/CHF and USD/JPY appear in the beginning stages of their declines, and still far from their lows. This should be just the beginning of the dollar's fall of a cliff to a new low (which will be seen with new lows in the USD/JPY and USD/CHF).

Long EUR/USD
Short USD/JPY and USD/CHF

Check out the 30min EUR/USD chart, it's reflective of the dollar as a whole.

Oh yeah, and with all this dollar selling, and new high in the euro against the dollar, silver and gold are flat (bigger picture) as gold is almost $100 from its high. The pressure in metals is down.

American-TAttached Thumbnails

hefeiddd

GBPUSD count.Attached Thumbnails






USDJPY count.
Attached Thumbnails

hefeiddd

Possible top and wave 5 in the EUR/GBP for now?
Attached Images






Cable Sandwhiched
Cable is stuck between support levels for the time being... Not sure of the shorter time frame for a count...
Attached Images






I am still short on this pair until it breaks the upper trend line on the daily.
Attached Images

hefeiddd

Eur Usd
Here is my opinion.
The number I am showing is in accordance with EW theory. Let's see, how it develops.
Mike
Attached Thumbnails







Gbp Jpy Triangle
Here is the chart of my interpretation of the GBPJPY current scenario.
I think that the triangle will break down real soon.

(Mind you, there is always a possibility that what we are seeing is a wave B triangle, in which case it might break up to form wave C. But, the internal wave structures do not support this hypothesis, IMO)
Attached Thumbnails

hefeiddd

Euro multi-year rally near completion?
The behaviour of the euro after breaking 1.5915 - i.e. lack of upward thrust - made me cancel the triangle scenario and look at the possibility of an ending diagonal - Jamie was the first to mention it. It seems that the big Fifth on the weekly is a WXY, where within W (a) almost equals(c); within Y (a) is 1608 pips, (c) is 1603 pips with the current top of 1.5968
Attached Thumbnails  

  

hefeiddd

Before I throw in the towel on the EUR, I want to see blowoff tops, panic and massively overbought indicators.

Not coiling after coiling after coiling...we are going much much higher.

Visualization is a very powerful tool.

Don't play for pennies.


*edit
I would add the the odds of this happening is probably less than 50%, but as always, targets and goals need to be set to judge your assessment of the situation..


The situation can always be judged by the green line up from wave IV, pretty powerful uptrend going on here..as long as that isn't broken anytime soon my 1.72 Price Object isn't so far out to lunch.Attached Thumbnails

hefeiddd

Agreed speculator, the bulk of the blowoff top I think occurred from 1.44 to 1.59. The daily RSI reading was at 86,the highest since the EURUSD was established (there was an 89 reading in 1998 but that is a synthetic rate) and the rate of change was the highest since 2003. This daily chart shows potential channel resistance as well (parallel extension) divergence.Attached Images

hefeiddd

Well looking at the short term picture I see the 30 minute rolling over and the 60 minute doing the same. Looks like at the very least we should retest the breakout point at a minimum. Honestly, figuring the old high at 159.15 we are now sitting at about 1.5950. 35 pips total from the old high. I guess that's why I'm not excited just yet about this EUR breakout.

I'm willing to go either way right now so I don't have to cheer a particular point of view on. Neither do I want to rain on anyone's parade. BUT, where's the beef?!

AT, was correct last night in calling for a 1.5750 bottom. Hey, 200 pips is nothing to sneeze at. Great call! But, in the bigger picture we should start to see something additional to the upside soon, don't you think? Maybe, after a retest of the breakout point?
Attached Images