一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

A drop under 1.9879 would possible complete 5 waves down from 2.0366 and turn the larger trend bearish. Wave 4 of the advance is a bit deep but does not overlap with wave 1 so the count is valid.
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hefeiddd

Anybody like this count?

Not much difference in implication for the long run, but it makes the meat of the bearish move more imminent.



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hefeiddd

Farewell 2.0000?
Guys hows this for an alternate, wave C to start soon giving a chance for GBP to say farewell to the bulls at 2.0000 level
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hefeiddd

GBPJPY appears to be breaking higher from a triangle. The triangle is large wave B within the A-B-C from 219.30. I am looking for a test of the 61.8% of 251.10-219.30 at 238.95.
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hefeiddd

A few days ago you gave your wave count on the crude oil. I was having the same problem as above. I guess it comes with experience to identify with "certainty" if it is a 5 waves or 3 waves move.

Anyway, i am attaching again the crude oil daily chart displaying the 4th wave that looks to me like a clear 5 waves decline. I was focusing on that one, but couldn't fit it in a larger count. What do you think ?

Thanks for your help.

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hefeiddd

I am really disturbed and frustrated how ALL of you guys just completely ignore clear and unmistakeable 5-wave up moves only to try to fit the price action to your bearish biases and make far-fetched interpretations, instead of letting the price action dictate your interpretations.

hefeiddd

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cant stop with gold now...
I might say I actully see a possibility to short gold soon to correct lower from the rally since 16th august. I might be 5 complete waves up and the study below chart is helping in predicting so... the proposed 5th has been in 5 overlapping waves now - maybe it's finishing in a diagonal structure? I will look out at this one and see if it presents an opportunity. Think it should get back to around 700 at least if I'm anywhere close to being right....

Pic
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hefeiddd

I was talking about this in the weekend that CAD may be topping out in all pairs. Jamie has shown an AUDCAD, we've all discussed and argues on CADUSD, and I'll show u how I see EURCAD. If that is right, we could be exploding in a (3) of III. And that is huge if it turned out so.... Let me just state that this is a long term outlook so it could go from 1,416 (the current level) to around 1,62 as a minimum (if it's equal in lenght to the (1) of III), but it could go to 1,73 as well if it's extended. I talked about this at the weekend, here's the chart. Today the proposed wave "c" broke below the low of "a" thus filling the minimum orthodox requirement for the correction to be complete. Anyway, the subdivisions since 2000 have been super-clear 5s and 3s in every wave. Let's see how it turns out.

That's it from me tonight.

See you tomorrow.

LOL, I've posted so much of my outlook tonight... anyone want to hire me?

GOOD LUCK ALL.

Pic
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hefeiddd

Picolo,
my favorite count is very similar to your count with big (B) from previous post. Only difference is in your (A). My alternative count is on the chart bellow.Ed

hefeiddd

Jamie I have a question, would this wave 2 correction on Usd/Yen be a possible flat? I was looking at the Nikkei 225 and started labelling, it does look like a flat, but a triangle correction is also possible. But the c wave does look like 5 waves to me on Usd/Yen when looking at the daily chart.

However I think in any case both would end up with the same count as the wave d and e for the triangle count would become the wave 1-2, unless the wave d is not in 5 waves.

Edit : the problem is that there is a gap on wave y for the Nikkei, I seldom see labeling on charts with gaps, but how would you label waves with gaps?
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hefeiddd

Usdjpy
Hi Guys

The USDJPY still looks bullish to me, we are well within the limits of a wave 2 correction by my count.
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hefeiddd

Spin

Here is a gold count. Gold has just broken out from the triangle, which was wave 4 within a 5 wave cycle that began at the 1999 low of 253.20. A bullish objective for the end of wave 5 is 855.82, which is where wave 5 would equal wave 1 in percentage terms. Wave 1 was 253.2-338, which is a 33.5% gain. A 33.% gain from 641.10, which is where I believe wave 5 begins, would place gold at 855.82. This is one reason why I am so bullish on the Australian dollar (over the next few months). AUDCAD long and GBPAUD short look like great long term bets to me.Attached Images

hefeiddd

Well any counts are still possible until a break of the low at 112.62, but the potential is there, I don't think that this big wave is wave c as it is nearing 361.8 of wave 1/a.
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hefeiddd

I still like buying dips on the EURAUD. I should mention that although I am very bearish longer term on the GBPAUD, the near term should see at least a rally to 2.3450 or so (if not higher). The 1.5802/1.6228 is the 100% extension of wave a and the 61.8% of the prior rallyAttached Images

hefeiddd

Wave iii may be about to begin NOW. A drop below 229.45 is not out of the question but weakness should be marginal. The decline (which I see as wave ii) ended at the 78.6% of the previous impulse rally.Attached Images

hefeiddd

Hey Serhito,
Thanks for the link to Meta trader. Ive been fooling around with the charts and so far so good. I'm going to try to post a chart of this morning's diagonal that I saw. Sorry I couldn't post it real time as some of you may have taken advantage of it at the time (for those that didn't). If this works, Ill now know how to place charts on so less blabbing for me and more pictures for those that can't read...lol. Joke!

For those that don't know what IM talking about, read post # 728, 729 , 731, and 734. I tried to take you through a play by play but I know its difficult when you don't have a chart in front of you.

Also notice that wave v of 5 of the diagonal also ended in a diagonal. I don't know if you could see it on this chart. If not, I urge you to look at a 10 or so.

Here we go:
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Trap?
Careful guys, I smell a trap.
Today's move down in the Eur/JPY appears to be in 3 waves in a smaller time interval. (5 min). Yet, if this was indeed a diagonal, we clearly need 5 waves in order to go down to wave 4 extreme of 158.79. (see previous post). I believe this is a truncated 5th wave. The fifth wave is waves 5 waves long as well. I believe we are in wave 2 so I expect an ABC from here. Fib levels suggest a move back to 161.77 (.618 of complete wave 1 down).
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Wave 3 ?
Hey guys,
Heads, We may be in wave c of 2. A drop below B at 161.09 cofirms were wave 3 down has commenced.
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hefeiddd

Top or Not?
We've passed .618 retracement of the intitial 5 wave decline by 2 pips at 161.79. Wave C = wave A. Could this be a top? We need a drop below B wave to be sure?
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that obviously wasn't the top. We ve made it to the .786 level at the psychological resistence of 162 YET AGAIN! Lets see what happens
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Maybe I should put on my Bull Glasses!
Hey guys
This is what Zeev meant when he said trying to make a count fit your bias. 1 more top would signify a 5 wave move so I definately dont want that. So far my C wave has a truncated fifth with a 1 down and an irrugualr flat. Talk about bizzare! Anyhow, Im looking at it through bear glasses, I have to admit. If another top is made, thats a 5 wave move so I will have to reacess my count.
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hefeiddd

So far so Good!
Sorry about all the charts. Serhito, You created a monster!...lol. Anyways,
so far so good. My bizarre count has served me well. I'm still in it and I believe we have a top at 162.06 (truncated fifth). This should be a 1 of 3 if my count is correct. WHEW!, that was close. We still need to break B wave 161.09 to be 100 % certain. I'm off to bed. See you at 4 am.
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Well That obviously wasn't a diagonal. Gos to show you could still make a profit being wrong. Presuming you take profits ASAP of coarse. No matter how clear your wave count is at the time, you don't control price.
So if that wasn't a diagonal, what the heck was it?
Well I'm still a bear so I'm going for now with this pair cause the wave 2 hasn't been violated. Its still hanging near its 78.6 % retracement of the 3rd wave down.
A possibility of an extended wave 1 of C. I know, thats just crazy talk!...lol. Going with this count, we need to be careful of 1 of the Elliot rules. Wave 3 = 375 pips. Since wave 1 is the longest, wave 5 has to be less than 375 pips which means we can't go higher that 164.59 for this count to be correct. BTW, this count works for Jamie's Big picture B wave as well.
We need break below 160.68 (yesterdays low...wave 4) to confirm that.
Heres my preferred count right now.
Have a good weekend.
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hefeiddd

I would probably bang my head if someone asked me to label 5min charts, worst case if prices were moving sideways

Aud/Cad might be completing wave 2 soon with another drop to to around 0.8600 area, time to go long from there.
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hefeiddd

With current price overlapping into the first wave of yesterday downmove I think we can safely assume that USDJPY is in the beginning stages of the C wave of 2. One thing I am unsure, is it still acceptable to label the whole move from 111.60 as a wave 2 due to the time it has taken to unfold, or should we leave the 5 waves down from 124.0 as A then this one as B?

What do you guys feel about the rest of the yen crosses. Seeing the USDJPY move 'out of sync' with the rest of the yens last week has confused me a bit.
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