一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

It is really looking ugly, not sure if it has completed or not, only a break of the top at 0.8736 can confirm. I would really prefer another down before I feel comfortable going long.
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hefeiddd

While my favored count has the USDJPY rallying to 118.00 to complete wave 2 in a large a-b-c flat, keep risk tight because the alternate count is a triangle and 115.85 could be the top of wave e of that triangle. A drop under 114.92 would tilt things in favor of the triangle alternate.
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hefeiddd

I hate looking at anything less than a 15 minute chart but the 1 min is showing that the EURUSD is still bullish. The decline from 1.4119 is certainly not an impulse and the advance from 1.4041 is an impulse.
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hefeiddd

Cadjpy
I like the CADJPY. It looks like it is reaching a turning point.
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hefeiddd

I also like the CADJPY....it certainly bears watching. I would wait for at least a small 5 down as confirmation but it looks ready to turn. Supporting the reversal idea are the Fibo measurements that are fairly close to the current price. The 100% ext of a (where c = a) is at 114.42 and the 78.6% of the larger decline is at 115.03.
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hefeiddd

Jamie, what about expanding triangle in B? Do you suppose it possible? All the legs seem to me corrective.

hefeiddd

Expanding triangles are extremely rare that this count would be way down on the alternates. I still favor the idea that wave c is headed higher to form a top near 118.00.
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hefeiddd

Hey guys,
This week should be interesting from the get go. I see several opportunities with many pairs but here is my favorite by far. I see a possible last leg of a diagonal C wave in the Eur/JPY. (yes another diagonal!...I told you I see them in my sleep). The only thing I don't like about this possible diagonal is wave 4 doesn't trade into price territory of wave 1 but the trend lines suggest it might be. Anyhow, if this is the case, the Euro/JPY needs to go down below the the extreme of Wave B at 155 or so. Thats almost 800 pips away.

Even if its not a diagonal, its either an ABC (bearish) or a 123 (bullish) in which case, we need at least a short-term correction. As I stated before, because of the extended wave 1 and the fact that wave 3 can't be the shortest wave, wave 5 of C cant go beyond 164.59. We should be very near a top lasting several days, maybe a couple of weeks or the real bear case (extended wave 3 down Ive been waiting for) a lot longer!...Don't forget were headed into October). Anyhow, I'm not going to get ahead of myself. I will trade 1 down leg at a time. This week should be exciting. If anybody sees any bullish alternate count, please show me as I embrace differences of opinion. Don't forget, I'm very bearish right now so my count is very bias. I don't see anywhere this pair could go but DOWN! Other Yen pairs are showing similar outcomes even though the count may be different. The Cad /Jpy looks like it may already have at least a short-term top in place as well. Although longer term, I do see some bullishness so I remain vigilant trading down moves 1 leg at a time. Here is my preferred count on the Eur JPY. Expect the next down move as early as Sunday evening.
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hefeiddd

Hi Zeev,
I looked to your counting of eurusd. If I grasped your waves properly, your 3 of 1 in big third is shortest!! To keep bullish scenario, what about this:?







Hi Spin,

some work on gold during weekend. Look at this. It seems to be logical, simple and compact.
Ed

hefeiddd

Even in running corrections, the A wave is usually much deeper than C yes, but I still never seen a running correction where C wave end practically where your whole wave 1 move ends (4 pips just doesn't cut it).I don't know. I have bizarre counts too. In fact, my counts seem far fetched even to me sometimes but this one is just way too out there for me. Even if I were a Euro bull (Which I'm not not), a more plausible count would be that we are finishing a wave 3 up right now but we still need a wave 4 down before a final wave 5 upward. Wave 4 cant close into the price range of wave 1 and would have to be an ABC zigzag as wave 2 was a flat. (please remember this is not my preferred count but if I were to look at it under a bull's eyed view, this would be it).
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Euro Bull Count
For all the Euro bulls out there, heres a weekly look of my bullish Euro count. Although its not my preferred, its still valid so I need to be kept in mind. It stresses at we are possible looking at at least a short term wave 4 correction in the near-term future.
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Euro Bear Count
My preferred count for the Euro is actually a triple zigzag for now. Here it is. For all those hard core Ellioticians, sorry I didnt use the w x y count. I actually don't like to to that. For corrections, I don't go further than the C for regular corrections, E for triangles and G for double zigzags. I like to keep it simple.
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hefeiddd

Hi edisko,

Picolo has actually pointed that out about the 3rd wave being the shortest and in one of the following posts I adjusted the 3rd wave to end at 1.3681 instead of 1.3367.



Your count is interesting but looks a bit unnatural to me. However, it did lead me to come up with another count that differs from yours just a little bit but has actually become my preferred count now:



No matter which count you use (yours or either of these two), the point is that we are both eur/usd bulls and that we are now in a major 3rd wave up.

hefeiddd

Well Usd/Yen is definitely looking like a triangle to me, so far since wave c was complete, all the moves are in 3 waves. However I think wave d might only complete with another drop. A drop under 112.58 confirms the triangle is complete.
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hefeiddd

Does anyone have access to the dollar DSI index. I'm curious to know if there are ANY dollar bulls left?Judging from the Bloomberg, C NBC, BNN, even FXCM (hinting Euro may be headed toward 1.45), I can't seem to find ANY. This fits well with my bearish count as I see us in a final C wave (post # 804). My bullish count also has us retracing somewhat but given the bearish psychology regarding the dollar right now, makes me a full blown bull. Trying to time this last C wave, I'm looking at a 15 min chart. Could we be near the end? A drop below 1.4040 in the initial signal.
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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-4-24 08:34 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

Here's a chart for the dollar index, 15min and hourly.

Note : These charts are not from ----------- data feed, but from Forex-Server data feed.
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hefeiddd

anybody agree with this,ofcourse maybe another x apear instead of e.d.t???please disscuse more about counting euo in weekly
blueman
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hefeiddd

Table of contentOverview:

• Principles of Technical Analysis
• Dow Theory

Trend Analysis:

• Trend Lines and Trend Channels
• Support/Resistance Levels
• Fibonacci Retracement

Reversal Chart Patterns:

• Head and Shoulders
• Triple and Double Tops and Bottoms
• V-Reversal Pattern

Continuation Chart Patterns:

• Triangle
• Flag
• Pennant
• Wedge
• Rectangle

Trend Indicators:

• Moving Average
• Envelopes and Bolliger Bands
• Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)
• Moving Average of Oscillator (OsMA)
• Parabolic Time Price System
• Average Directional Movement Index (ADX)

Oscillators:

• Bullish Divergence / Bearish Convergence
• Momentum Indicator
• Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
• Relative Strength Index (RSI)
• Stochastic Oscillator
• Force Index
• Relative Vigor Index (RVI)
• Williams’ Percent Range (R)
• Average True Range (ATR)
• Ichimoku Kinko Hyo

Volume Indicators:

• Overview
• On Balance Volume (OBV)
• Money Flow Index (MFI)
• Accumulation / Distribution (A/D)

An Example of Trading Strategy:

• Elder Ray Indicator

Initially, principles of the Dow Theory were used only for the American indices created by Charles Dow: Transportation and Industrial. Most of them, however, can be successfully applied to the foreign exchange market.

• Indices discount everything. According to Charles Dow any factor which influences demand and supply will be reflected in the index. These factors cannot be foreseen but nevertheless they are taken into account by the market and reflect index behaviour.
• There are three movements on the market. Uptrend is characterised by the fact that every following top is higher then the previous one and every next bottom is higher then the previous one. Downtrend is characterised by the fact that every following top is lower than the previous one and every bottom is lower than the preceding one. When the market is in the flat position every next move (up or down) is approximately at the same level as the preceding one:
  Dow classified market trends as follows:
  
  • primary trend (it is called a broad one and lasts from anything less than one year up to several years);
  • secondary trend (it lasts from three weeks to three months and is considered as a correcting trend to the primary one. These in-between rebounds are one-two thirds (or even half) of the range prices move during the primary trend);
  • daily trend (a short-term movement within the secondary trend, which has very little long-term forecasting value).
  Another classification was suggested by Thomas DeMark:
  
  • short-term trend (if the price has moved less than 5%);
  • mid-term trend (if more than 5% but less than 15%);
  • long-term trend (if more than 15%).
  DeMark designed a forecasting method to predict the beginning of a trend, both mid-term and long-term. The method is based on the specially designed coefficients.
• The primary trend has three phases. During the first phase all unfavourable market information has been discounted by the market and the far-sighted and better informed traders start to buy. The second phase starts when the traders who do technical analysis enter the market. Once all economic data becomes more favourable, the third, final phase begins, which is characterised by high activity on the market supported by the mass media and optimistic economic forecasts in the newspapers and on TV. Despite the positive sentiment, the final phase is the first sign that the prevailing trend is about to end.
• Indices must confirm each other in order for the signal to have authority (referred to Industrial and Rail (or Transport) indices). Charles Dow said that any significant uptrend or downtrend signal on the market must be considered together in the Industrial and Rail indices. If we applied this principle now on the basis of modern technical analysis, it would mean that a signal from one technical indicator must be confirmed by a signal from another technical indicator.
• Trade volume must confirm the prevailing trend. If prices move in accordance with the prevailing trend, it increases the volume and inversely, when there is a rebound, volume decreases.
• The primary trend remains intact until a change in that trend has been given by the theory. The last major signal remains in force until a new signal develops. Many analysts believe that a bull market must always be moving to new highs. However, the market can undergo extended periods of sideways or lackluster trading without the primary trend changing. If the last major signal under the theory is bullish, the primary bull market trend remains in force until a bear market signal is given.

Trend Analysis: Trend Lines and Trend ChannelsTrend is a general direction of the price.
Trend LinesPrices do not only rise or fall but most of the time they actually move in narrow ranges. So, in accordance with the Dow Theory we can therefore divide trends into three types:

• "bull" (or "uptrend") - prices rise;
• "bear" (or "downtrend") – prices fall;
• "flat" (or "sideways") – prices are in a narrow range. As a general rule, market consolidates prior to a rapid price rise or fall.

First of all, it is very important to determine if the market is uptrending or downtrending (this can be done with the help of trend indicators and trend lines or channels) and if the prevailing trend is strong or weak (with the help of oscillators and charts patterns).
Uptrend line in MetaTrader

Uptrend means that every next bottom is above the previous one, and every next high is above the previous one, so in this case, the trend line is drawn between bottom points. Obviously a trend line created by joining only two points will be less effective than a trend line created by three or more points.
Downtrend line in MetaTrader

Downtrend means that every next bottom is under the previous bottom and every next high is under the previous high, so in this case, the trend line is created by using the highest points.
Any trend (bullish or bearish) must be confirmed by trade volume. Put it simply: when prices move in accordance with the prevailing trend, the trade volume increases; when prices move against the prevailing trend (rebound), then trade volume decreases. Once the situation changes and trade volume during rebounds becomes greater than that during the trend price movement, it is a serious signal that the trend may not be so strong (but it is not the signal to open the opposite position, as there is no confirmation of the trend reversal).
Flat trend line in MetaTrader

A Flat Market means that every next bottom or high is at the same level as that of the previous bottom or high. In this case, the trend line is drawn by joining both bottoms and highs.
In order to draw a trend line in MetaTrader 4 press the button on the "Line studies" toolbar:
Line studies toolbar

Point the mouse cursor to the first trend line point, click and hold the left mouse button to draw the line to the second point. Once you have done this, release the button. If you wish to highlight the trend line, just double click on it. Right-click on the highlighted object to enable the context menu:

There are two types of trend lines in MetaTrader 4: vertical () and horizontal () trend lines.
With the help of a trend line you can identify the moment when the trend will change. Once a trend line has been broken, chances are that the trend has just changed its direction or its strength has started to diminish.
Sometimes the trend line is broken by a bar low or high, and the price continues to move in the direction of the current trend. There are many methods to define if a breakout is true, hereafter are the most popular :

• Trend is your friend - do not open positions against the prevailing trend.
• The primary trend remains intact until a change in that trend has been given. Trend line breakout is one of the most important signals that the trend may reverse.
• Do not try to open positions against the prevailing trend hoping that the trend is weak and that the reversal point is not far away. In most cases price sweeps through your Stop Loss order and only subsequently does the trend reverse.

A Stop Loss order should be placed below an uptrend line (or above a downtrend line).
Tomas Demark made his contribution to the theory of trend lines. According to his theory, trend is rooted in two critical points through which the trend is drawn. He called these points TD-lines (his name, Tomas Demark, abbreviation). These points are defined at the basis of extreme points.
Channel LinesChannel lines are a significant part of trend analysis. Channel lines are like boundaries for price fluctuations. To create a channel line, draw a parallel straight line next to the trend line: one of them joins price chart highs, the other price chart lows:

Channel lines are used:

• To point out where to fix profits and losses. If there is an uptrend channel, Take Profit order may be placed under the upper line and Stop Loss order under the lower line. If there is a downtrend channel, Take Profit order should be placed above the lower line and Stop Loss above the upper line.
• If the price does not touch the upper line of the uptrend (lower line of the downtrend) this signifies that the prevailing trend is weak.

In order to create a channel line in MetaTrader 4 double click the left mouse button on the trend line, press and hold the Ctrl button and drag the newly created parallel line to its place on the chart. Then release the Ctrl button.

hefeiddd

Trend Analysis: Support/Resistance LevelsSupport and Resistance levels are patterns of classical technical analysis. All trend (channel) lines, reversal and continuation chart patterns are only combinations of support and resistance levels.
Support level is a starting point of an uptrend, and is actually a tangent to the minimum prices. It is commonly thought that when the price falls down to the support level, Bulls (buyers) start to resist against further price decrease thus giving it support. This explains why is many cases the price will bounce back and start rising after having reached a support level.
After several attempts the price may break the support level. Once the support level is broken, it becomes the resistance level:

There is an example of when a support level became resistance in September 14, 2003:

Resistance level is a tangent to the maximum prices:

It is assumed that once the price reaches this level it will not point higher. After several attempts the price may break the resistance level. Once the resistance level is broken it becomes the support level.
Support and resistance levels are very easy to create and they are a very effective method to forecast price behaviour. In order to define if the support/resistance level breakout is true, please refer to the criteria outlined for trend lines.

hefeiddd

Trend Analysis: Fibonacci RetracementPrice correction (retracement) is a short-term anti-trend price movement. Prices almost never just rise during the uptrend and fall during the downtrend. Even within the same trend, the price can rise and then retrace for a while or vice versa. The most profitable and less risky positions are positions opened at the end of the retracement. It is therefore important to know how to define the levels at which the trend will resume after a short retracement. Technical analysis has the so called correction index which uses Fibonacci numbers. The Fibonacci sequence is a series of numbers that takes the previous number and adds it to the current number to get the next number in the sequence. For example, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144 etc.
These numbers possess an intriguing number of interrelationships, such as the fact that any given number is approximately 1.618 times the preceding number and any given number is approximately 0.618 times the following number.
Experienced traders know that in a fast market, the correction is about 0.382 of the price range movement. In a market with average price movements, correction is about half the price range movement. Maximum correction is 0.618, which indicates that the trend is rather weak.
Fibonacci Retracement in MetaTrader 4

To estimate if Fibonacci Retracement breakout is true, please refer to the methods used to estimate the truth of the trend lines breakouts.
In order to draw Fibonacci Retracement in MetaTrader 4 press the button of the "Line Studies" toolbar:

Drag the cursor to the uptrend low (downtrend high), click and hold the left mouse button to drag the cursor to the uptrend high (downtrend low) and release the button. Fibonacci Retracement appears on the chart. Highlight it by double clicking, click the right mouse button to enable the context menu with the settings.









Reversal Chart Patterns: Head and Shoulders and Inverted Head and ShouldersPrice chart analysis starts with chart patterns. When you track price movements you may often see that these movements have predictable configurations, which are called chart patterns. Chart patterns are tools used to predict trend reversal or trend continuation.
Let's begin with chart reversal patterns - "Head and Shoulders" and "Inverted Head and Shoulders".
"Head and Shoulders" is the most recognizable reversal pattern. "Head and Shoulders" pattern appears at the end of a bullish trend:

"Inverted Head and Shoulders" is the first sign that a bearish trend is about to end:

Inverted chart patterns have distinct highs (bottoms). Head Line is a trend line which joins two bottoms between highs (two highs between two bottoms if the pattern is inverted).
Pattern characteristics:

• if on the bearish trend there is an "Inverted Head and Shoulders" pattern, then the higher the Right Shoulder the stronger the signal;
• if on the bullish trend the Right Shoulder of the "Head and Shoulders" pattern is higher than the left one, then this makes the signal stronger;
• in order to define if the pattern is valid, the volume pattern must also meet fairly strict requirements.

Once the Head Line has been broken, it is time to open a position. The best time to make a deal is when the level has been broken and the price rebounds to the Head Line.
"Inverted Head and Shoulders" pattern in MetaTrader

hefeiddd

Reversal Chart Patterns: Triple and Double Tops and BottomsOther important reversal patterns are:

• "Triple Top"
• "Triple Bottom"
• "Double Top"
• "Double Bottom"

Here are some sketch examples of price movements with "Triple Top" and "Triple Bottom" patterns:

Here is the "Triple Bottom" pattern:

"Double Top" and "Double Bottom" patterns are seen on the charts more frequently:






Reversal Chart Patterns: V-Reversal PatternMostly V-Reversal patterns (or Reversal Spikes) are formed subsequent to a rapid previous trend:

There are many gaps on the chart, and support and resistance levels are indefinable. The only possible signal is a break through a very abrupt trend line. It is really difficult to find the right moment to enter the market if there is a formation of a spike. The best stategy in this circumstances is to be square (no open positions).
This pattern is frequently seen on the charts of GBP/USD:

hefeiddd

Continuation Chart Patterns: TrianglesContinuation patterns indicate that price sluggishness is only a pause in the prevailing trend, not a sign of a forthcoming reversal.
Continuation patterns typically take less time to form than reversal patterns.
Triangles are powerful continuation patterns:

There are four different types of triangles:

• symmetrical,
• ascending,
• descending, and
• expanding.

Symmetrical triangle consists of two converging trend lines (upper line goes lower and lower line goes higher). The point at which they cross is called top:

There must be at least four reversal points in order for a triangle to be recognized, but there may be more (for example, six: three peaks and three troughs).
In most cases the breakout occurs in the middle to three-quarters of the triangle width. If within three-quarters of the triangle width the breakout has not occurred, the subsequent price action will be weak and difficut to predict. The fewer price fluctuations inside the triangle, the more chances that trading volume will decrease (this is a common rule for most continuation patterns).
The formation ends when a trend line is broken. It is sometimes followed by a pull back to the trend line (if it was an upside breakout then it would be the support level, if downside breakout it would be the resistance level). The top of the triangle will be the important support/resistance level. To estimate if the triangle line breakout is true, please refer to the methods previously used to test trend lines breakouts.
Ascending triangle is a type of symmetrical triangle:

Its upper trend line is horizontal whereas the lower one is upward sloping. This is a bullish formation as in this scenario buyers are more active than sellers. When an ascending triangle develops, it is usually a good chance for an upside breakout to occur.
Ascending triangles are usually formed as a continuation pattern in an uptrend, but sometimes they can be found at the bottom of a downtrend, signaling a reversal. Even if the market is bearish this chart pattern should be considered as bullish.
Descending triangle is a bearish formation, a mirror image of an ascending triangle:

How to analyze symmetrical, ascending and descending triangles:

• Classic triangle has five lines (three downward and two upward or vice versa).
• If the price penetrates the triangle downwards then the price may continue to fall.
• If the price penetrates the triangle upwards the price may continue to rise.
• If the pattern angle is up-directed the price may move higher.
• If the pattern angle is down-directed the price may move lower.
• If prices remain within the triangle beyond the three-quarter point, the triangle begins to lose its potency, and prices may continue to drift out to the apex and beyond.
• The breakout usually occurs between ? and ?.
• Triangle top will be the support/resistance level.
• Typically, volume is heavy at the beginning and it contracts during the formation of a triangle. It increases again during the breakout.
• The price continues moving in the direction of the breakout for at least a range equal to the triangle's height.

An expanding triangle (more often appears at highs) consists of three gradually rising highs and two gradually falling bottoms:

When the downward price movement crosses the level of the second bottom, this means that the pattern formation is about to end, and that is a signal to open a Sell position. Once the signal has been given prices may pull back up half of the range they have moved downward. After this pull back, the bearish trend resumes. Although, as a rule, the third top is higher than the previous two tops, sometimes it may be at some level of the second one or even a little bit lower. In this case the pattern resembles the Head and Shoulders chart pattern with a downward Head Line.