一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

Jamie,

Do you have an update for the dollar index ? (attached chart is from May)

I cannot figure out if the B wave is over and if the C wave has actually started.
Would that be considered a flat correction ? What would be your target for wave C ?

Thanks

Serge
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hefeiddd

The EURUSD is in wave c of wave B. Wave B is from 1.3360 and wave c of B is from 1.3450. A high probability reversal point is 1.3750, which is a Fibo confluence area.
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hefeiddd

Looking at the dollar index, it is possible that the bottom for wave B is in place. The advance from 79.96 is in 5 waves (wave v is extended). This is a possible count because wave iii is NOT the shortest wave. Waves i and iii are both 75 pips. The decline from 82.13 is in a-b-c form, but it looks like one more low will be registered closer to the 78.6% at 80.42. This wave count suggests that a significant dollar bottom will form this week.Attached Images

hefeiddd

Get ready for a third wave higher in the USD.
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hefeiddd

I'm seeing this wave C would at least equal wave A around 1.0660Attached Images

hefeiddd

SergeAttached Images








You are correct that the decline from the top was an A-B-C correction. However, it is unlikely that that was the entire correction. This correction is most likely a larger 4th wave and 4th waves are usually complex, not sharp as you are implying. Additionally, the internals are not suggestive of impulsive action. The rally in the USDJPY from 111.59 to 117.12 is a 3 wave affair - likely the first leg of a larger B (of 4) wave (wave a of B of 4), and not wave i as you suggest. The larger degree count in the USDJPY indicates a potentially significant top at 124.13 (end of a triangle that began in 1995). Expectations under this count are for wave C to unfold (higher) towards where C would equal A (at 119.39). 119.39 happens to be extremely close to the prior 4th wave as well (a common Elliott guideline as well).
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hefeiddd

I'll leave everyone today with a chart of the EURUSD. I just want to warn those wishing to get long on a break of 1.3684. It looks like a push through there would complete 5 waves up and therefore a pullback would occur. That pullback would indicate a bullish opportunity.


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hefeiddd

An opportunity in Kiwi. Since the NZDUSD already tested the 61.8% of .6639-.7272 at .6881, it is possible that a B wave low is in place at .6869 and that price is headed higher in wave C to test .7500 before a reversal. .7501 is the 100% extension of .6639-.7272/.6869 and .7547 is the 61.8% retracement of .8082-.6639. For what it's worth, the JPY crosses are in virtually the same position (looking for wave c higher)
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hefeiddd

In Elliott, it's all about 5's and 3's. That is, 3's go against the trend and 5's go with the trend. Here is real-life, current picture perfect setup. Notice the declines in Cable recently are in 3's (indicating that down is corrective and that up is with the trend). Advances are in 5's. The GBPUSD presents a solid bullish opportunity today. Risk should be kept to 1.9961. Targets are outlined in today's technicals.
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hefeiddd

is it correct?
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hefeiddd

nice work in this thread, very inspiring.
Jamie I strongly agree with your idea of long term triangle on USDJPY. What do you think about this idea?: We are actually in wave B (maybe C already have started, but corrective nature of upward from 111,60 does not confirm it so far) of larger E. Supportive arguments - wave a nad c of B/of E are equal and time spent by B/E (if ended) is almost double of A/E.

P.S. Hope a picture have been attached.
http://www.learncurrencytrading.com/...1&d=1188493443
Ed





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hefeiddd

I favor the idea that wave E of the triangle is complete at 124.13. The biggest reason is that wave E is close to 61.8% of wave C. Alternating legs of triangles are often related by 61.8% or a derivation thereof. Wave E would be exactly 61.8% of wave C at 122.57. The top was at 124.13. A difference of just 155 pips when projecting a move that is nearly 3000 pips works out to just over a 5% error. Also, I am treating the decline from 124.13 to 111.59 as 5 waves down with an extended 5th wave. A return to 119.89 would complete wave 2 within the larger 5 wave impulse that began at 124.13. The time relationships between the different legs of the triangles also favor the idea that wave E is complete. The weeks that each leg of the triangle took to unfold (from A to E) were 41, 16, 27, 37, 30. The average length of time for each leg is 30.2. Wave E took 30 weeks. The 'look' is right.




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hefeiddd

Been reading all the discussion here for a few days now and am glad I found this forum / thread... Decided to post one of my alternatives to u all... For the last three weeks my main concentration has been on eurjpy, which has been volatile as hell and very rewarding to me. For a while I was looking at the possibility of eurjpy going for the 5 waves down, but later it became the less preferred count because of too deep a retracement (4th wave now an A of (B)) of the possible wave three (now regarded as C of (A)). So now I think we are still going to see higher prices and my wave count is presented to u in the attached 30_min graph....

What I am curious about is what u think of my interpretation of today's plunge as c of (b) in a running flat - the reason I think that could be true is the unimpulsive nature upside since b of (b) - it didnt feel like the end of the deal. And then I would like to hear any comments on the daily graph.... Cause the fact the BIG drop ended at 149,3, which was just below previous wave 4 and exactly at a trendline drawn since october 2002 low makes me think.... can this big drop mark another 4th wave and we're still going to see new highs?!?! That would be sick....
Oh, and the possibility still remains that we are actually in a wave two now... of another degree in the dailies.... That would be exciting... If this wasnt actually an (A)-(B)-(C) we're about to see.... but actually a (1)-(2)-1-2(now)-3-4-5(3)-(4)-(5)... HUH?  Afterall, we have now retraced 61.6% of C of (A) or in this case - of 1 of (3)....

Awaiting comments.... Jamie, italm, anyone?




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hefeiddd

Kiwi
Anyone willing to enter Jamie's recent reccomendation on the Kiwi - now is the perfect time I think - good risk/reward and lots of nice support down under. Today's fall was impulsive and completed a regulat flat for wave 2 if that count is to stand.




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hefeiddd

Here's my long term picture of the canadian...

Figured I'd pull this one out of the hat when I saw Jamie's marking of the head and shoulders today. Was looking at such a development myself and started wondering how that fits in... maybe there's still a tiny leg down there left.... there's room for a slight push to new lows in my picture, cause the ending (5) feels like a diagonal triangle... certainly the 4 of it overlapped the 1 just slightly, and the 3 feels more of a three wave move, not an impulse - plus the whole structure respects the channel very well.

What I also find interesting in this count are the very precise Fibo relationships u can find... they are picture perfect elliott... I will need two pictures to show them all.....
If we look at the big structure - (1)-(2)-(3)-(4)-(5) - few things: first - wave (5) equals exactly the distance travelled from start of (1) to the end of (3); second - wave (4) divides the whole (1)-(5) wave move in the relationship of 0,618 : 0,382 - that's a typical guideline of elliott; third - (4) retraces exactly 38.2% of (3) and ends at the wave 4 apex of smaller degree; fourth - not an elliott guideline, but anyway - notice the MACD diverging from price in the latter stages of the five wave rally, especially obvious on a monthly chart - that's also typical of a (5).

If we look at the five waves in which the propsed (5) subdivides - again some nice relationships: first of the two - wave 5 of (5) equals exactly 0,618 times the distance travelled in 1 of (5), which is quite nice considering wave one is the longest of the 5 in this case; second - wave 4 again divides the whole 1-5 move (the whole (5)th wave) in the relationship of 0,618 : 0,382.

Plus the 5 of (5) ended with a diagonal triangle and the following expected and captured strong upward thrust of ~360 pips in a few days after under-shooting the A-C trendline of the triangle. That was a perfect end to the whole structure on the hourly charts.... It's been picture-perfect....

So, based on all this I think we have a reasonable chance of usdcad not falling too much lower, if any....





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hefeiddd

gbpjpy





A break of the 234.5 level is a break out of an important trendline drawn through the peaks of the sell-off. It would be a strong confirmation for the bulls.

Also, gbp/jpy traced out two distinct 5-wave up-moves on the 1- and 5-min charts, one from 233.36 and the other from 233.66.

If the pair breaks out of the 234.5 level, 244 would be the next important level.

hefeiddd

At this point, I see GBPJPY coming under 227.40 in order to complete wave c of B of B. A target for the bottom of wave c of B is 225.49, the 61.8% of 219.30-235.50 (wave A of B). A wave C of B advance would follow towards the 61.8% of wave A (251.10-219.30) at 238.95 before the BIG decline in wave C. This is my preferred count as long as price remains below 235.50. An alternate count has wave B unfolding as a triangle, but that would still unfold at lower levels. I wrote a post on this forum last week arguing for the top of wave B at the end of this week as that would make the time consumsed by waves A and B equal. The preferred count I have proposed supports this time correlation.
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hefeiddd

The bigger picture in the USDCHF has a terminal thrust from a triangle occuring (below 1.1815), while price remains below 1.2215. At this point, reward/risk is high and it looks like an expanded flat may be complete at 1.2151.
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hefeiddd

It looks like a 5 wave advance occured from .8271-.8752. Since the decline since then is a second wave (a-b-c), then we should expect a deep retracement (prob about 61.8%). The 61.8% is at .8455 and is a potential bottoming point for wave 2.Attached Images

hefeiddd

What a mess we have here with the loonie. Latest count sees a probable irregular correction which I feel may head north to complete a bigger wave C. Any sense in this?




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