一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

i am a bit confusing about big picture of euro,could you help me?.if we are in large (B) which go beyond the beginning of large (A).how can we match this irregular flat correction with elliot theory ,because (A) should be 3 waves in irregular flat correction,but (A) is 5 waves,another q i want to know do you agree with this idea says a part of ending diagonal triangle can be impulsive waves ,for example in euro wave 1 ,3,5 are 5 waves(in diagonal),how this idea match with elliot theory.i think you are the only a person who answer my q?.
Thanks
Hadi
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hefeiddd

Again euro up to 1.3870 & 1.3920 or trend change to downward?
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mean this chart.
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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-4-23 08:48 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

I have been focusing on the USDJPY for the entire week for a reason. I think there is a good opportunity there. Bottom line - I am bullish as long as price is above 120.97. Wave 2 of a 5 wave impulse either ended at 121.55 or is still in progress and will end below 121.55 but before 120.97. I am throwing the triangle interpretation out because price exceeded 122.40 this morning. Either way, wave 3 is expected to unfold soon - probably next week but possiby beginning today. 124.13 is expected to give way and a rally through 122.61 would confirm my bullish count. The line in the sand is 120.97
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hefeiddd

Now develops 4-th wave and after the ending of correction for it 5-th wave will follow in area 1.40

hefeiddd

After investigation more to weekly chart of euro we underestand you were absoulutlly right and i was wrong.your count in euro weekly is the best and match with elliott theory .about wave b yes it can be correction and 3 wave a-b-c just c is more larger than a.As you see the end of large c wave should be the beginning of large wave3 .
Happy TradingAttached Images

hefeiddd

I am sure that everyone is interested in Cable, since it is at such high levels. When the pair broke 2.0570, my alternate count that has the pair going towards 2.1000 became the favored count. That does not mean though that we will not see some consolidation/correction. I think that the 5 wave rally from 2.0056 is wave 3 in a larger 5 wave rally from 1.9621. That means that we are expecting wave 4 to unfold and present a buying opportunity. If a wave 3 high is close at hand, then wave 4 may end close to a line parallel to the 1-3 line (these are the black lines). A drop below the red line, which is the 0-2 line within wave 3 would confirm that larger wave 4 is underway. As you can see, price is very close to that line.
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hefeiddd

how are u?it is my elliott counting.
happy trading
bi
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hefeiddd

Sterling is likely to fall a bit more - towards parallel channel support and the former 4th wave (2.0459/68). Look for the end of this correction near that level. Those willing to take multi-week position should place a stop below the high of wave 1 at 2.0203 and target the 2.1000 figure.
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hefeiddd

The EURUSD has traced out a nice 5 down, indicating that the larger trend has turned (down). Look for a pullback in 3 to get bearish.
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hefeiddd

Here is some short term, real time analysis on Strerling. The decline over the last few hours is a corrective 3 wave affair, indicating that one more push towards the confluence of the trendline resistance/100% extension of 2.0423-2.0467 at 2.0480 may happen.
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hefeiddd

Aussie just broke the ending diagonal support line. The decline should extend to at least .8707, which was the beginning of the diagonal.



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hefeiddd

Thank you .please suppose these moves will happen in euro,so you mean that blue area is zig zag correction for built wave (4) in euro as you said befor.
Thanks
Hadi
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hefeiddd

Dollar Index has been denied from returning inside the triangle.
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Looking at the USD index and the EURUSD, they are showing the same 5 wave impulse wave in the process of being retraced. The USD index bounced at the 61.8 % and the EURUSD at the 50%. Looks to me like the correction is completed. The USD index will have to clear that resistance line before going higher. If it does, i guess that will show a pretty good sign of strength.
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hefeiddd

I think the previous idea which said euro not completed 5 wave was wrong .i think euro completed 5 waves at the top 1.3851(ending triagnle),so move down as wave 1 and now we are in correction built wave 2 which i think bounce around 76.4% fib around 1.3800 ,then ready for down again sharply (wave3)
Bi
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a bit confusing?
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hefeiddd

The GBPJPY has been one very exciting pair lately. The latest decline from 244.35 is in just 3 waves. This is either the first 3 waves of an ending diagonal or the b wave of a flat correction from the 241.39 low (which is the count that I have labeled this chart with). This pattern suggests that a strong short term rally will occurup towards 244.00 soon, as long as 240.51 is intact.
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hefeiddd

I think your previous analysis on USD/CAD that we will see 1.0070 looks out questions & this is best probable chart.
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hefeiddd

check 2 more chart




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hefeiddd

This is my count for the Weekly USDCAD.
Does it actually make a difference if the whole down move is treated as impulsive or as a correction ? Do you trade it differently ?
The projection of wave C actually shows that 61.8% acted as a support then as resistance within the triangle. The 100% target seems to be where the reversal is taking place.





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hefeiddd

anybody knows why 1 can not be a or 2 can not be b,how many reason dou have,whoknows?
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hefeiddd

I am not completely sure about the wave structure on the way down from 251, but a correction may be unfolding right now. This correction could get back to 241.90 (38.2% of 247.73-238.29). This level intersects with parallel channel resistance tonight. In summary, we are looking for a return to 242.00 to be followed by a new low (below 238.29).



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