一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

Those that have read my stuff over the last few weeks know that I am extremely bullish on the USDCAD (especially longer term). Well, the setup is looks promising. I have a complex correction unfolding as wave 2. The fact that the bottom of wave 2 is close to the 61.8% of wave 1 instills confidence in the upside bias. Also, The rally to 1.0650 and decline to 1.0482 this morning may very well be waves i and ii of 3. A rally through 1.0564 makes significantly increases confidence in the upside (this is when you want to stop on the gas...). Bullish targets (1 to 2 weeks out) are at 1.0820 and 1.1040.
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hefeiddd

It looks like wave 3 of 3 is underway in the USDCAD. This rally should accelerate in the next few days.
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hefeiddd

The GBPUSD decline has stalled right at where the decline from 2.0462 equals the 2.0654-2.0181 decline. We may be near the end of an a-b-c correction but there is no evidence of that right now. Also, the rally off of the low is corrective, siggesting that Cable will continue to drift lower. However, shorts may want to keep risk tight at the current juncture.
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hefeiddd

While the small correction that we were looking for failed to play out, the USDJPY has registered a new low (beneath 117.18), which satisfies minimum expectations for the completion of wave 5 within the 5 wave decline from 124.13. Looking at the structure of the 5th wave, a 4th wave correction is needed before wave 5 of 5 completes the sequence. The next move of consequence is likely a large wave 2 correction back towards 120.00 (this may be in a week or two though) although we do expect the pair to chop lower in the near term (possibly towards 115.00). A measured objective is where wave 5 would equal the price distance of waves 1 through 3, at 115.53.
the techs are posted by the way.. http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx...179543798.html
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hefeiddd

AUDUSD is nearing critical support at .8162. Price needs to bottom near .8162 for the bullish bias to remain favored. If price drops to .7972 (161.8% extension of .8870-.8444/.8661), then we will abandon the bullish bias and look to sell a correction. The alternate longer term counts would then come into focus (which we have not shown here). In summary, a bottom near .8162 and rally through .8444 would be evidence enough to act on.
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hefeiddd

I hope Jamie can help me to point out if I am right or wrong, Cad/Chf has been giving me a big headache, we're in what looks like a wave 4 looking at the weekly chart, the current correction is a big headache, just wanted to hear Jamie's opinions, hope this wont give you a big headache.
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hefeiddd

Given that the EURJPY decline from 165.39 is nearly 161.8% of the previous decline, I favor the idea that the EURJPY will rally correctively in a wave 4 before moving lower in a wave 5. Within wave 3, a small 4th wave is unfolidng now and will likely give way to a test of 151.69. So, to answer your question, I do not think that the uptrend will resume. Ultimately, I believe that the EURJPY is headed to 130.00/140.00. I have published reports about the longer term outlook for both the EURJPY and the Dow at dailyfx. The latest one is here http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/...590496575.htmlAttached Images

hefeiddd

I should have been more specific with my question.
Can a wave 1 of Wave 3 retrace into the previous wave 1 ? (look at the arrow)Attached Images

hefeiddd

I'm very pleased to find that there's a vibrant EW forum with some high level analysis. Jamie is great, italm31 is also obviously an advanced elliotician with thorough understanding of the method. I've just joined the forum a few days ago and I'm excited to be here to share my thoughts and get input.

In regards to the gbp/jpy, I see the pair rallying as a 4th wave zig-zag correction within the larger 3rd to test the trendline in the 230 level, before heading lower. The 230 level is also a 50% retracement of the smaller 3rd wave, and in that region wave c would be about 62% of wave a in that smaller 4th. Eur/jpy is tracing out the same pattern.

hefeiddd

The recent developments in the USDCAD offers an opportunity. The rally from 1.0340-1.0866 consists of nearly two nearly equal legs (1.0340-1.0699 and 1.0462-1.0866). This is the hallmark of a correction and the 5 waves down (1.0866 to now) indicates additional bearish potential. Look to get bearish against 1.0866 on a rally back to 1.0650. We will calculate targets as things unfold.
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hefeiddd

The GBPJPY is at an interesting juncture. To this point, the rally from 219.30 is in 3 waves and has retraced a bit more than 38.2% of 244.07-219.30. This evidence makes a strong case for the rally from 219.30 as a 4th wave. Under this, a 5th wave would come under 219.30 but a larger correction would occur following the new low.
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hefeiddd

Hi guys,

I think there is some potential that USDCAD might develop into a double zigzag on the daily. As of now we may be in the formation of a downward X wave. Possible?
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hefeiddd

gbp/jpy

hefeiddd

Eurjpy
Hi Jamie and all,

EURJPY, do you also see the beginning of a leg C towards 160.05 before it reverse ?

Have a great day.
Serge
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hefeiddd

I see it as highly probably that the rally from 149.27 is wave 4. Wave 2 took 6 days to complete and wave 4 (the rally from 149.25) is in day 4. However, the EURJPY has hit the 38.2% retracement of wave 3, which is usually where wave 4 ends. I wouldn't be suprised to see more of a flat or triangle unfold, which means that a wave 4 correction would continue, but at lower levels before a thrust lower in wave 5. I favor a flat or triangle because this would satisfy alternation. Also, Elliott channeling indicates that wave 4 should not travel much beyond current price.
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hefeiddd

While we wait for the Yen crosses to complete their corrections, let's take a look at an opportunity in something else. I don't think that I have posted one thing here yet on the USDCHF. That is because I have not seen an opportunity in the USDCHF. I see one now though. Look to get bearish upon completion of wave c (wave 2) near 1.2130 (61.8%) against 1.2215. Wave 3 could begin earlier of course (like now). Coming under 1.1993 signals that wave 3 is underway towards 1.1800 and likely much lower. I am fairly confident in this pattern
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hefeiddd

I believe that you were originally looking for a large correction back to these levels, so nice call. That said, I am treating the entire decline from the top as large wave A. The advance since is then large wave B. The rally from 219.30 may be just the first leg of wave B though. B waves are usually complex anyway so I do expect wave a of B to test 235.61 (at least) before a decline in wave b of B and then a strong rally in wave c of B, which could test the 61.8% at 241.96. This will probably take at least a week or two to unfold. The wave 4 interpretation is still valid but as you already pointed out, 4th waves rarely retrace 50% of wave 3, so I am suspicious of this count to say the least.Attached Images

hefeiddd

Markets have bounced quite nicely, that's for sure, but I am viewing this bounce as a large B wave within a larget A-B-C correction. I think that there is much more downside potential, but probably not for a week or two (see my post on the GBPJPY just above). This long term chart offers perspective. The USDJPY may have completed a triangle that began in 1995, if so, then recent weakness (from 124.13) is the beginning of a thrust lower that will come under 100 and then 81.12 over the next few years in order to complete the terminal thrust from the triangle. This very long term bearish scenario would strengthened on a drop under 108.98.Attached Images

hefeiddd

Jamie,

I've been looking at the usd/jpy monthly chart for a while trying to figure it out, it's a very confusing pattern. The orthodox triangle has ended in Nov of 2005... However, I'm having serious doubts that it's a real triangle to begin with because the c and d waves in your chart are 5-wave structures and they're supposed to be 3 in an orthodox triangle.




Here's the only scenario that I see that would fit an orthodox EW pattern:




So I'm in agreement with you that the usd/jpy is in a bear market, just the wave count is different.

Regarding the gbp/jpy & eur/jpy, however, I see them in a major long term bull market. So I don't think usd/jpy will move in tandem with gbp/jpy and eur/jpy. The divergence between usd and gbp&eur vs. jpy (despite yen's unattractive low interest rates), in my opinion, is that the usd is in a long term inflationary decline that is accelerating and it's slowly being diversified away by central banks and the world public at large from being a reserve currency of the world.

hefeiddd

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