一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

NZDUSD
Kiwi looks set to make new highs against the greenback...



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hefeiddd

GBPUSD
Heading for new highs



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hefeiddd

I agree that Cable looks rather bullish. The decline from the top could also be a double zigzag labeled W-X-Y. Either way, the count is bullish.
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hefeiddd

EURUSD is coming to an interesting area around 1.3360.
There is a long term up trendline, there will be the bottom of the down channel from the recent high at 1.3678. There is the 12/03/2006 high at 1.3367 and finally the 38.2 retracement from 1.2863 to 1.3678.
There should be quite a bit of support.
The only thing i still can't figure out, is a wave count on the EURUSD.
Anybody to help ?

Thanks.
Serge



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hefeiddd

Keep this in mind .............

As you think your way through what's happening these days !

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Only a Probability !................Not Cast in Stone !
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hefeiddd

also see here

Usd dollar ...........
There maybe a serious base already built into the Dollar .............

( See the chart below )
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hefeiddd

the euro

what Look here :
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hefeiddd

Eur/Usd

Only a Probabilty ...........

Not cast in stone !
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hefeiddd

USD/GBP

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hefeiddd

pg2................
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hefeiddd

Usd GBP

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Any Comments ?
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hefeiddd

The US Dollar seems to have found a nice base that should propel it towards 90 by the end of the year. A measured objective one year out is 93.51, which is where wave C would equal wave A. Forecasting a dollar rally of this magnitude probably sounds crazy but accurate forecasts always sound crazy. Tops and bottoms occur when the majority of market participants are wrong. With the majority of market participants expecting the dollar decline to continue, conditions are perfect for a significant bottom to form (most likely already in place). I expect a rally towards 87.29 (1.2482 in EURUSD) at the least.Attached Images

hefeiddd

There are 5 waves down from the top (.7637), which indicates additional bearish potential. Kiwi reversed at .7540 early this morning, which is the previous 4th wave. It is certainly possible that a correction extends higher but as long as .7637 is intact, the structure is bearish. The 161.8% extension of wave 1 is at .7284 is a target.
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hefeiddd

Short term EURUSD shorts should be careful here. The bearish structure is intact but price has stalled at the 100% of 1.3680-1.3392/1.3552 at 1.3264. A rally through 1.3391 would suggest that the entire decline was just an a-b-c. I prefer the larger bearish interpretation that has the decline from 1.3552 extending towards the 161.8% extension near 1.3086 before a correction takes place. very short term resistance is at 1.3315 and 1.3373.
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hefeiddd

Kiwi is tracing out a clear short term pattern. The 5 wave decline from .7637 to .7465 suggests that at least one more leg lower will occur. An irregular flat correction may be unfolding from .7465. Potential reversal points are .7551 and .7571 (the 50% and 61.8% of .7637-.7465). In summary, we are looking for a spike above .7540 before price reverses and heads lower.
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hefeiddd

In Elliott, there is always more than one possible outcome. In other words, multiple wave counts that satisfy the rules of Elliott. The rally from 1.2482 (October 2006 low) could have been an impulse wave IF price would have rallied to a new high (above 1.3680) before dropping below 1.3367 (which is the black horizontal line). The drop below 1.3367 confirms the top because the odds are high that there are just 3 waves up now from 1.2482. This means that we have a double zigzag correction from the 1.1638 November 2005 low. It is still possible that an ending diagonal is forming from the 1.2482 low. This is the alternate count and its labels are on the bottom of the chart. The favored view has a primary degree top at 1.3680 with price dropping close to 1.1638 within the next 12 months. The alternate count is a new high. Risk can be limited to 1.3552. In order to fully understand EW, you should read The Elliott Wave Principle, by Frost and PrechterAttached Images

hefeiddd

I watching the EURGBP closely. The pair could continue to fall, but an a-b-c correction may be over at .6728. Given the proximity of .6728, there is little downside risk right now. If .6728 gives way, then look for support near .6700, which is the previous 4th wave and the 50% of .6535-.6867.
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hefeiddd

Jamie,

I have a few questions on your EURGBP analysis.
1) The correction ABC, would you consider it being a simple zigzag correction for now ?
2) Is the depth of wave B rather unusual ? (i measured 78.6%)
3) The reason for .6535 to hold, is that to still be considered a wave 1,2 of a greater magnitude ?

Thanks.

Serge
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hefeiddd

I see Cable coming down towards 1.9885/9900 in a small wave c (in order to complete the larger 4th wave) before a thrust to a new high in wave 5.
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hefeiddd

It looks like 1.9627 is the end of the correction that I was looking for. 3 waves are visible and impulsive upside action is visible on the very short term charts. The correction that just played out is most likely a 4th wave in the 5 wave sequence from 1.9621. A 5th wave rally is expected to register a new high (above 2.0014) and potentially 2.0130 before a reversal. Wave 5 (from 1.9927) would equal wave 1 at 2.0086 (measured objective). Since the rally unfolding will be a 5th wave rally and the euro is embarking on a 3rd wave rally, there is considerable upside potential for the EURGBP.
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