一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-4-22 07:49 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

Make your Luck work out


just a simple chartingAttached Images

hefeiddd

11 March and 24th March increases are very much like the same.
Within several hours we may see a correction wave that will delay of passing 1.59. If price stalls for several hours then the correction wave will be inevitable. Who knows next...
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hefeiddd

GL All........Attached Files

fiber.doc (272.0 KB, 116 views)

hefeiddd

Hi all.
I agree with diver in the sense that Euro will retest the 1.59 level again. In my view, it could, I'm sayin' it could, make new highs before finally retracing. I would like to present my take of the wave counts. Discussions are welcome. I tend to see the market in a simplified form by ignoring the complexities because they don't get me anywhere. Here's a weekly chart showing the rally from 1.1638 that started Nov 2006.

The wave 3 here is in the form of an up channel. When it breaks out of the channel, it signifies a change of pace. So I choose the top at 1.4968 as the end of wave 3. Wave 4 retraces to 0.236 of wave 3, which justifies EW theory that wave 4 is usually the shortest wave. Wave 5, I believe, is still in progress. I tend not to break down waves into too many subwaves. That doesn't do me any good either. If you really want to subdivide it, the chances are you'll see hundreds of subwaves, accurate to the nano second. So we'll only be looking at the daily chart. This is to see wave 5 in 5 subwaves.

Wave 1 and 2 is in the form of an ascending triangle. Wave 3 is the entire rally from 1.4438 to 1.59. This happened just not long ago. Many people have different opinions of wave count for this rally. I'd like to ask one question here: what if the entire is only a wave 3? If that is the case, the 0.382 retracement to 1.5342 is wave 4. We are in the middle of wave 5 now.

I'd like to add that once the presumed wave 5 is complete, we could see a huge correction. I mean huge. If we look at the monthly chart, the rally from 1.1638 that started Nov 2006 is a wave 5.

If my wave count is correct, that means wave 5 of 5 of 5 is nearing completion. It needs to push through 1.5904 to prove me right, though.

Any thought? Comments?

hefeiddd

Conclusions:

We look at this pair with amazement. Then, we have two scenarios: Bulls, that look at the current price action as a small corrective phase inside wave 5 (that should bring the price near its 200 DMA or previous lines, blue, black or 3 in mauve by an ABC series). Bears, that look at the whole move as finished and wait for a serious retracement to relief the long awaited USD crash process.Attached Thumbnails

hefeiddd

see attached chart

not sure he will be able to correct till rf 61.8%
technically its what he should do ... before to go higher
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hefeiddd

eurusd is not willing to correct as per my previous post
then other possibility
- rectangle of continuation pattern - till fibo extension - 161.8%


Kr
jer
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hefeiddd

testing new chart posting.
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hefeiddd

Mk yur Lk workAttached Images

hefeiddd

Explanation why big drop should follow is on a picture. Break needs to be clean and without much looking back. Gold is also falling...

EDIT: Stoped out from all longs except ones covering the option.
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hefeiddd

see comments on chart

kr
jer
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hefeiddd

Attached Files

fiber.doc (135.5 KB, 53 views)

hefeiddd

I expect rfibo 61.8% at 1.5550 to hold
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hefeiddd

excused to the English bad one........is before the time that I take part on this 3D. I hope that this diagram appears where the formation of a small triangle can be noticed, after the formation of the maximum double quantity. The double quantity maximum door towards the inferior part in direction of trend the white trend of the triangle, first support in order to return towards the high part in order to try the breach of the maximums. The breach of the white trend door to the realization of the minimal and single double quantity the breach would carry the euro to enter in the inferior zone in direction 14950. Friday is important in order to decide one direction to follow for the medium period. Good job.

hefeiddd

Hey Chibai,

I actually don't keep that long term of a wave count on my software to avoid clutter. The best long term count I have though mirrors that of FXCM's Jamie Saettele, so I just attached his chart out of convenience. But please keep in mind that Jaime is calling a top already in place a wave 4 underway within wave III. I do not share that opinion. I see the pair making a new high above 1.5904 into the 1.6000s before wave 4 begins. If I'm wrong, then a wave 3 will probably be underway to the downside soon and will blow out my stop loss and leave little doubt that the trend has indeed changed. But as of now, I don't see it. Rallies look impulsive and declines look corrective still. The trend remains up.

The significant part of this chart is that it illustrates how massive the pair's correction will be. It's very possible that it will go to the prior wave 4 area around 1.4400, which is a move of 1500 pips! So that's the move I'm truly waiting for. And I'm making small short term plays in the meantime.

American-T

(PLEASE NOTE: CHART IS BY FXCM'S JAMIE SAETTELE)Attached Images

hefeiddd

Hi everybody, did you see the EUR in 4 hours? looks like a flag to push down...I see the euro going down until 1.5480-63, but maybe this is only the end of the wave C in the correction, and if this zone remain strong then, we will see the euro push the high again, but if this level could be broken, then is going really down. (this means that we are on the wave 4 now)

This level represent the bottom´s ascending channel, and we could put some positions long at this level, and this can be a good strategy with low risk

Please see the chart and tell me your opinion
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hefeiddd

Using Jamie's count of this morning we could be finishing a minute wave ii and beginning a wave iii down. The key is your number either way right now. As far as I can tell.Attached Thumbnails







Here's how I am going to label the EUR for now. Comments?
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hefeiddd

Amen. Taking a break for a few hours. Letting positions ride. See what happens when I get back.

I have a few EUR that are under water. But, Indicators are very overbought on the 30min & the 60min. Also, I see 5 waves up in wave c of C finishing around 1.5728 a trendline resistance and a 50% ret. all aorund this number. Since there was no major move here just thin markets I'll take a chance to work out of it over the next few hours or so.

Still with core 1.59 short as mentioned. Oh, also a few GBP short around here against a quick correction down. Small risk. Not relevant to this EUR forum but just thought I'd mention it.

Good trading.Attached Images

hefeiddd

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