一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

Allan, it depends how you look at itAttached Images

hefeiddd

Anyone else take note of the inverted Head and Shoulders pattern? I've seen these in commodity futures before too...quite common. Makes for a nice target!

CanOz
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hefeiddd

And thats another new low for a target. On the other hand is it breaks the pattern, thats quite bullish for the DX.

Anything could happen!

Cheers,


CanOz
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hefeiddd

from another point of view
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hefeiddd

EURUSD has popped above the 1.4820 level and it looks like there isn't much to stop the pair from tackling 1.50, especially as there are TONS of US releases scheduled this week (nearly all of which are expected to be highly bearish for the dollar).Attached Images

hefeiddd

My analysis with the EUR currently testing hourly support around 1.4820 would be a good time to fo long for the test of 1.50 with a stop at 1.4745 which below support at 1.4750 1.4760. I used the daily chart to view an inverted head and shoulders which is the basis for this trade. Entry point will be 1.4820- 1.4825.
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hefeiddd

hi ivan i said three hour ago to you euraud is winking
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hefeiddd

Kudos to those of you who caught that massive drop yesterday below 1.4750. That looked like a great setup on the charts.

Personally, I'm not going to take a trade until we confirm a move below 1.4685 or above 1.4900. I see 1.4585 as a relatively well-respected pivot level. Pushing that level, it wouldn't be too hard to encourage momentum down to 1.4300. If we break 1.4300, then my opinion of the medium trend would turn to bearish and then we could really see some movement.

To the upside, 1.49 looks like it may be neckline on an inverted heads and shoulders (as I believe someone had pointed out before). While my confidence in this formation is tarnished since the trend leading into is rising - and this is usually a setup that marks a long-term reversal and not continuation - I also like 1.49 for its proximity to 1.50.
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hefeiddd

EURUSD is aggressively testing support at 1.4525/30 right now, and a break below here target 1.4315...however, I think we may see the pair hold above as dollar weakness resumes.
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hefeiddd

So, I won't stand too confident in dollar technicals until after the 30th. However, until then, these small swings should certainly be taken advantage of.

What are your thoughts?Attached Images

hefeiddd

Bit of a short-term head and shoulders pattern? A break below the neckline targets 1.4561, 1.4524.
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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-4-21 17:46 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

The daily and 4-hour graphs show that the pair bumped off the lower bound of a “double top” (“D-D+”) shape. This circumstance determines the development of further descending to 1.4525 target minimally. If this level won’t offer a strong support (what is unlikely to happen) the pair will go down to 1.4445. If 1.4542 will offer support, a “head & shoulders” shape will be formed on H4; the right shoulder of this shape will end at ~1.4655, with bumping off it and breaking the neck line. After that, for the forming of a proper descending trend, the pair will need to update 1.4363, what will lead to breaking of the “E-E+” weekly ascending trend. Breaking of such an important trend will entail the continuation of pair’s dropping to the weekly ascending trend (the higher bound of a “bull’s triangle”) “G”, the 1.4300 level.

hefeiddd

I agree with your warning about shorting the pair, as it can be quite dangerous to trade against the (clear) trend. On a very short-term basis, I think we'll see EURUSD continue to climb towards 1.4790/1.48, though resistance could prove to be quite strong around those levels. However, I suspect that there will be some speculation in the markets today that the Fed will not cut rates tomorrow, which could weigh on the pair and prevent any significant rallies.Attached Images

hefeiddd

Last night we saw the EUR retrace to the 50% level to the pip....let's see if that 1.4590 level can hold...
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hefeiddd

Long time no post.
Too busy with work and study.
here is my 2 cent.
buy more or sell after the triangle broke, see graph.
Resistance: 1.46000
Support 1.4510
Currenly holding long positions. Brought at 1.4542 SL 14500.
Bias: Bull.

Good luck everyone..
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hefeiddd

Waves of Euro/Buck
I think Euro gonna go down to wave wAttached Images

hefeiddd

Euro/USD support at 1.4630-14570 (hard to find a good support between the range)
Will short Euro at 1.4565 see pictureAttached Images

hefeiddd

Looks like there is some significant correlation between the Dollar and Pound right now. The two countries have similar banking systems and their economies are suffering the same illnesses.The question is, is the Eurozone so decoupled from them that it may not experience an equal economic downturn. If that is the case then we may see the Euro eventually break 1.50 and go beyond against the dollar. Considering that growth from the BRIC seems to be unfazed to this point, Europe may be able to come out of this relatively unscathed. However, if the developing nations start to falter, then the US and UK policy makers have positioned their economies ahead of the curve and you will see that starting to be reflected in the currency prices despite how low they lower rates. Can the rest of the world survive without strong US and UK economies, it would be a new era for sure if that was the case.
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hefeiddd

EUR/USD long got stop out at 1.4625. It was a mistake. SL should have setted lower. O well.

Open orders:
Long Eur/USD @ 1.4740 sl 14670 target 1.4835: see below graph
Long Eur/USD @ 14675 sl 14650 target openAttached Images

hefeiddd

I'm thinking about taking a small contrarian bet on the probability that we could see a big retracement in EURUSD. Since price action has built up a history of stagnating around 1.49, I can see an easy setup for a short trade that could do well in two of three scenarios that will likely transpire.

Starting with best outcome, we reach 1.49, resistance holds and the outlook for european interest rates continues to deteriorate. Euro drops and it could traverse considerable distance in only a few days.

Second, EURUSD gets up to its resistance and stalls in the area. This could eventually lead up to an ultimate break or retracement, but if we can see price action in this area for a few days, we can better assess the likelihood of a possible break (the highest daily close on record - 1.4870 so far - for example) and get out.

Lastly, we could get a clean breakout. But I wouldn't mind taking this risk, because I'm still long-term bullish and could easily set a breakout order to trigger on the move.

Any other potential bears out there? We wouldn't exactly be trying to catch a falling knife on this considering resistance has been so consistent.Attached Images