一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

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hefeiddd

if you want to short something,

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please see the Monthly EurUsd chartAttached Images

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EURUSD really couldn't sustain the break above 1.4750/70, and these continued tests of 1.47 look a bit bearish to me in the near-term. Once we get European traders coming back into play (around 3/4:00 EST), I think we could see a bit of a break lower to target 1.4625/30.Attached Images

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IT'S GOING TO THE 1.500

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Though tomorrow's ECB rate decision certainly presents considerable event risk for trading EURUSD, I'm not really expecting anything to fundamentally change from the policy group's standpoint. They almost certainly won't move rates as growth trends and the forecasts for growth trends are still relatively bullish and inflation figures are hovering just above the comfort zone. Trichet has already made note of credit market concerns, he has dropped most of his more telling rhetoric (vigilance, accomadative, money supply being a worry), so I think it will be an as usual thing. Of course, they did provide a record injection of liquidity after the Fed's last rate decision; but does anyone expect that to really change their position.

I think major technical levels will survive the event and any momentum we see will be minimal. I won't bet against at least some price action afterwards as the Fed has continually lowered and Trichet can once again alter his commentary; so there is something to measure the euro's strength against.

Any fundamental traders out there, expecting something different and positioning for it?
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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2008-4-21 17:19 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

I wouldn't place any large wagers against momentum carrying us through support (volatile pairs like EURAUD don't usually do well with mature/clear levels of horizontal support and resistance). At the same time, it looks like the daily candle will close far enough away from 1.6485 to suggest there is some buying pressure behind the euro.

Considering taking a small, long position near spot and looking for 100-150 points against risk of 70 points. At the same time, I was planning on shorting the pair on a higher time frame (240-minute? daily?) close below 1.6485, though I fear that won't happen when I'm paying attention. So, I am working out an appropriate stop limit entry order. I don't want to be whipped in and out on a false break, but I also don't want to have to join 100 points into a break. Perhaps I should code some of the more complex conditional entry orders I think would be good (like looking for a drop in spot through my target, seeing a 40-plus point spread to the downside, have it come back above my target level and then turning it into a regular stop entry order - that would be the process for my 'retest of former support entry order.'

What do you think about the pair hussin?Attached Images

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IMO, if a triangle is playing out, we could see a drop to around 4500 before a breakout.Attached Images

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hi please see atached as my reasoning for why i think EUR/USD will reach 1.4700 in the coming days. does anyone else agree with this?
thanks.
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