一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

Can we get a consensus on resistance and if it will hold?

1.4860 may a bit low but a safe bet nonetheless. Is the 1.49+ area attainable anymore? Does the US economy look any weaker since the previous high to warrant another move up by the Euro?

I drew a few possible trend lines to see if other are reading the chart the same way. Either way, it has been a good, profitable run. It might be time to get ready for a bear leg.

Any thoughts?


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hefeiddd

This one worked, I am thinking that the upward move is taking a break for a while now
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hefeiddd

Dave, I use Candle Charts; Some people us Bar Charts. If you use Hourly Charts; Count back 4 to 5 hours ( 4 / 5 Bars). Lowest Low / Highest High is your Stop Loss Point. Long: Move your stop up as the Lows change; Short is just the reverses of Long. Attached chart for reference.

Chart shows 5pm EST screen shot. 1st bar back is 4 pm (EST) 2nd is 3 pm; 3rd is 2 pm. etc...

Live example of the move down is I took a short inside the 11 am Bar at 1.5127. My next Highest High to move my Stop was at 3 pm (Bar 2). High was 1.5139 so move stop to 1.5139. I will let the market move down and I will continue to move my stop down. If it starts to retrace; just leave your stop where it is and take your Profit / loss. It takes about 3 to 4 bars after Entry before you can move your stop sometimes.

I have found that this helps keep you in the trend longer and you really can let your profits run.

If you are trading a Daily chart then your Bar = 1 day . 5 min chart 1 bar = 5 min. Hourly is 1 bar = 1 hour. This stop movemnt works in all the time frames.

Questions? More chart examples needed?Attached Images

hefeiddd

I think there is no need to alter the outlook.
Euro rallied clearly and simply in five waves. May you double check my count?

However, the fifth wave does not seem to have ended up here, it is still too small. Also from time projection view, I think it has further to go.

Actually, I measured wave 1 as approx. 300 pips, and wave 3 as approx 600 pips. If you count wave 5 from 1.5144 to 1.5347 thats 200 pips.

I think we are in wave iii of 5 now. From 1.5144 wave 1 could have ended at 1.5300 (150 pips) price corrected after that (wave ii? ) then it rallied from 1.5250 almost (100 pips) 1.5347 the rally high.

So we are in iii of 5 or 5 of 5. But most likely we are still in iii of 5.

Either way, its definately time to book long profits. There is really no way to know when wave 5 can end. Could be sub 1.53 or sub 1.54

My own favorite though is higher prices towards the mid of 1.54, probably 1.5450.

Anyone agree / disagree? Share with me please.
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hefeiddd

My personal opinion is that we are in wave iii of 5 and that wave 5 can extend 100-200 pips more.

Wave 1 300 pips distance approx
Wave 3 600 pips distance approx
until now wave 5 is about 300 pips.

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hefeiddd

According to this particular view cable may reverse and complete a big C wave in the 2.0250/2.0460 and resume its downtrend.

It does not make sense that cable is mainly in a downtrend, but elliott waves+fib+zooming out that chart tells we are definately in a downtrend.

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hefeiddd

hefeiddd

The dollar rally is almost upon us.

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hefeiddd

Under my count, prices are in 5 of 5.
Reversal potential increases sharply if we bypass the 1.5625 mark.
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hefeiddd

The 3 wave decline (a-b-c in 20 min. chart below) and subsequent rally occurring right now is telling me the EUR/USD is extending to the 5700-5800 area. A while ago someone in this forum suggested an extended fifth was unfolding. I disagreed with them. I was wrong, they were right. Kudos to you.

You can see a triangle in the chart below, so this is probably a terminal thrust that will peak and then reverse sharply. Very aggressive traders can start shorting at the 5700 and above areas. But I would only enter very small positions and add more as it rises. The more conservative trader can wait for the terminal thrust to complete, reverse, and then short it with a stop at the recent high made. This is when the more aggressive traders can then really pile on as well.

Good luck all. I'm looking forward to this dollar rally to get under way. Seems like we're almost there. And to supplement this technical aspect, CPI data comes out tomorrow which could be the catalyst to finally launch the greenback. Tomorrow could interesting.

American-T
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hefeiddd

Here's what I see. Basically I see the dollar making clear and strong 5 wave declines and/or making three wave rallies. The rallies are deep, but they're still in three waves, indicating that the dollar trend is still down. Seeing as that the dollar is near a significant bottom, this is a higher risk trade so my positions are set up small for short term action. Currently I'm long the GBP/USD and AUD/USD and short the USD/CHF, USD/CAD and just re-entered the USD/JPY again.

Check out the charts and tell me what you guys think.

American-T
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hefeiddd

Here's my view of the world. Keep in mind, the EUR/USD is virtually the exact opposite of this USD/CHF chart, so just flip it upside down to get the EUR/USD analysis.

The first two charts show bearish divergence on the stochastic oscillator. The 45 min chart (1st chart) shows that the stochastics don't want to come close to prior price level even though the price is virtually flat. On the 4hr chart (2nd chart) you can clearly see that the stochastics are trending down heavy, while price is staying flat. This tells me that the larger uptrend is weakening, but my experience tells me that stochastics are not a good indicator of exact turning points. The pair can drift higher in the short term. But the bottom line is that upside momentum is waning.

Check out my EW count on my next post for specific short term possibilities and let me know what you all think.

American-T
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American-T
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hefeiddd

New high has been made with USD/CHF (low in EUR/USD), opening the door to further correcting, and a new look to the 2nd count.

American-T
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hefeiddd

The following may be helpful for some.

Weekly Outlook23.03.2008
by Dimo Dimov

The sideways movement from November to February looks like a triangle so I labeled it as such a pattern in my working count. I think that it turned out to be non-limited triangle because otherwise the following up-move should have finished at much lower levels than the reached 1.5904. With an aye on this I label the up-move after the triangle as wave A and the subsequent retreat as wave B. This count suggests that once wave B is over, there will be at least one more high above 1.5904 in wave C. The big problem currently is how to trade this wave B. From the point of view of the daily chart it still looks unfinished and it looks like that there will be much lower levels than the reached 1.5396. However from the hourly chart point of view (this time frame is analyzed in the daily analysis) it seems that a temporary low is very close and in such a case a strong retracement (at least 61.8 %) of the fall started from 1.59045 could follow. So the current wave B suggests sharp movements in both sides and maybe there will not be a reliable signal for a longer term position soon. With an eye on this I prefer to be flat at the moment and I could enter the market in both sides for a short term positions depending on what is going on. From the point of view of the bigger picture it seems that the 1.5904 high will stay unbroken in coming weeks and the tendency will be for a further fall towards 1.5250 (but with sharp movements in both sides)

Trading strategy: 04:15 EST; 08:15 GMT
Stand aside
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hefeiddd

taken profit for 5402 at 5450 and taken one lot for 5354 at 5450 as well..
next limit placed at 5490 and 5544, last one open........ stops re adjusted to BE at the moment............Attached Thumbnails

hefeiddd

Hi AT and hi every body, I want to share this chart with you, from my point of view this is what I got, on my counting I see a wave IV but maybe I am wrong, the elliot wave is new for me and I am trying to understand it, so from this point, the EUR/USD could pull back at 1.5636 and complete the wave IV and maybe there is a head and sholders unfolding on the chart. if this is correct then, we will see the EUR push down again to complete his correction at 1.48`s as an initial target what do you think about it?Attached Thumbnails









Hi AT and everyone, I want to share this chart with you ....from my point of view we are on the wave IV of A and maybe the Euro could pull back at 1.5636 and start a wave V, but maybe I am wrong the elliot waves are an instrument new for me and I am trying to understand it.. at the same time could be a head and sholders unfolding on the chart if this counting is correct then we will see the euro dollar push down again to complete his correction at 1.48`s as a initial target...but please see the chart and give to me your opinion
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hefeiddd

Hey Tzion,

Thanks for talking EW with me. I agree with your overall analysis in a call for a wave IV to below 1.5000 area, but I feel wave IV will be deeper and run into the low 1.4400s. You also show a projection that an A wave has completed and is rallying in a B wave. This cannot be the case as the A wave is not a complete 5 wave decline. We need another low to occur. Check out my EUR/USD charts in this forum and the EW section for my opinion on the pair. If a rally punches through 1.5685 then it would be problematic to the bearish wave IV view being underway right now. It may mean this decline was just a correction before another new high. Then wave IV gets underway. So the 1.5700 level, which is where a wave 1 is located, is a good stop out area for shorts, and a good opportunity to start looking for bullish positions once it's broken.

Just my thoughts. Hope that helps.

PS I just added some chart of my count below. THis isn't to say I'm right, it's just my view of the wave count on the EUR/USD. I made this last night.

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hefeiddd

Once again I have to switch my outlook and move to a bearish dollar stance. So the dollar is poised for a new low and the EUR/USD a new high. I have no more EUR/USD short positions at all now. I'll wait for a large 3 wave pull back to get long.

Any thoughts? ideas?

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hefeiddd

Euro move soon runs out of time
in the MT level
Thurs/Fri to review the fib/wave stage(s)Attached Images

hefeiddd

MACD & CCI both show divergence but the EUR looks unstopable
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