一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

lil help re:2

hefeiddd

EURJPY, a 3rd of a 3rd opportunity is coming up (this is what I live for). There are 5 waves down from 158.65 to 156.95 and a 3 wave setback ended at 157.70. It appears as though wave i of 3 ended at 156.74 so a setback should end near 157.24 (former 4th wave). This would offer the oppotunity to get short against 157.70 with an initial target at 154.94 but it would be wise to trail the stop in this case since this could be the beginning of a bigger decline.
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hefeiddd

Here is a USDJPY count from the top last night (116.40). We have waves 1 and 2 complete of a new 5 wave bearish cycle. Waves 1 and 2 of 3 are complete and wave i and ii of 3 of 3 are complete. That means that the USDJPY might just fall off a cliff in a 3rd of a 3rd of a 3rd...
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hefeiddd

At its most rudimentary level, EW is all about identifying impulse movements and corrective movements. Markets oscillate between the two (trend and correction). If you can identify where you are now, then you know what to expect next. In the case of EURJPY, we have a very short term downtrend last night and all consolidation since. Without all of the internal labels, I label this 1 and 2 (or a-b). The next leg lower should be underway now and come under 156.69. A short term bearish target is 155.87(where the decline from 157.83 would equal the 158.65-156.69 decline. Additional bearish targets are 155.59 and 154.46.
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hefeiddd

Well I didnt get the reversal 2 hour I was looking for but from the top we do have a 5 wave decline as well as a 30 min bearish engulfment and a 15 min reversal. (I guess ill have to take what I could get). Anyhow, A break below 232.64 without a new top is the initial signal that were going lower from here. You could choose to put an entry signal with a stop but be warned NON FARM is coming up.

italm31

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#470    09-07-2007, 01:07 PM

zeev Member Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 44

This gbp/jpy is obviously very frustrating for all of us. Here's a thought as to where it might be. It looks to me like it is in the last stages of an abc correction that might see the price bottom at 231 or perhaps 228. Gold is inching towards 700 and the markets are also rallying, the dollar being the victim. This is how I saw it in my bullish scenario. I think we are in the last stages of a correction on the yen pairs with the diagonal that italm recognized as wave 1 and this current wave as a shallow wave 2. All the markets are insanely correlated to the dollar (currently and for the past several years). The carry trade as well; as it strengthens when dollar weakens and weakens when dollar strengthens. So anyway, to give heads up, when gold, silver, and equity markets correct (I believe after gold hits 701), we are going to get the last leg of the down move in the gbp/jpy (and other yen pairs).

hefeiddd

We've had a lot of action but there are still opportunities. One I think is in the AUDUSD. A diagonal in wave b from .8051 may have ended at .8308 and I am looking for wave c to unfold to at least .8027, which is the 100% extension.
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hefeiddd

I'll have a go at the aussie. I am seeing this as a possible 5th wave down, although the 2nd wave is suspiciously taking too long to develop. I agree as for it being a diagonal, a special type that is because the upward legs A, C and E have 5 waves to them. This occurence is described by Robert Balan in his book Elliott Wave Principle on page III-9. The only thing bugging me is I am not really sure if its OK to have a diagonal on wave 2........

Price rocketing thru 8333 will invalidate my count.




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hefeiddd

Your analysis of the eur/usd as a bearish view is interesting. As you know I'm long-term bullish of the pair so this could be an interesting exchange. So to offer a differing interpretation of the long-term eur/usd, consistent with my bullish view, here's what I'm seeing. (By the way, for about a year I was trying to interpret this pattern in a bearish perspective until quite recently when I changed to long-term bullish on the eur/usd because the bearish case just kept getting invalidated and was becoming too confusing for me.)

So here's what I see. There are 9 distinct waves up on the eur/usd weekly, which is a bullish count. It's clearer on the gbp/usd chart so I'm attaching that too. If this interpretation is correct, then this is a continuation diagonal rather than an ending diagonal and we would be going much higher.

I see fundamental support for this view too. The fed has already eased the fed discount rate, pumped a lot of money into the financial system, and with the non-farm surprise the markets are pricing in almost 100% chance of an easing of the fed funds rate on sept. 18, probably with more easing to follow. It's all bearish for the dollar. Also, spot gold broke through its previous resistance at 690-694 very strongly to touch 707, which is very significant if you're a bullion trader or follower.

hefeiddd

NZDJPY - a 5 wave rally from the bottom (this is a 5 minute chart). Look for a correction but this rally makes it likely that today - or at least the morning - will be a pro-carry day.
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hefeiddd

This is the chart with labels. Wave B should end in the mentioned zone (previous post) and that opens up the short term opportunity to for wave C down towards 77.90.
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hefeiddd

After dropping below 2.0243, Cable has turned higher and a third wave rally could be underway from 2.0235 after a series of 1 and 2 waves from 2.0043. The bullish objective is above 2.0654.
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hefeiddd

Very short term, bearish Kiwi from below .7000 targeting below .6921 with potential for .6900 might be a good play as the pair looks ready to fall in a small c wave.
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hefeiddd

I'm starting to think this may be a triangle, which would explain how long it's taking for this to roll over. The triangle B may have started at the bottom on Aug 16th (as shown), in which case we'd be pretty close to the next leg down, or it may only be wave b of B/2, which would imply a small wave e down and a thrust higher towards 240ish before going down for wave C/3.

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hefeiddd

Again with the loonie. I think the CADJPY has shown light on where USDCAD might be heading in the next few weeks. My previous wavecount on CADJPY has been invalidated when wave 4 traversed into wave 1. I am assuming we will see a lower USDCAD soon. Is this correlation OK?

How about other yen crosses, I know USDJPY has some room up to complete wave 4.Attached Images

hefeiddd

Additionally, EURGBP has broken higher. This is a significant breakout as the pair has been trading in a correction in a large second wave for quite some time. Wave 3 higher is underway towards the mid .70's. The chart presented here is a daily.
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hefeiddd

Going with the theme that the Yen crosses are going to continue higher before the next big leg lower, the AUDJPY is likely close to completing wave B of B in a triangle. Watch out for a break higher towards Fibo resistance either late this week or next week.
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hefeiddd

Since I do work in the markets department in a swedish bank, I do hear quite a lot about SEK (especially lately if u look at the chart), but since I only trade FX for myself, not the bank, I very passivelly follow USDSEK on the longer charts. From those charts I sometimes throw an idea out to our few FX guys on the other side of the room (none of them count waves, so they are sometimes interested in my approach). But personally me - I have been trading this pair very rarely. Only one really good trade I remember, and a few quite bad attempts.

I can show u how I have labeled the weekly chart.
The main count is bearish with a potential for a bullish turn in this pair quite soon, especially if 6,54-6,56 continues to hold...
I had to relabel it when the perfect head and sholders top (labeled "(c) and II?") played out in a 5 wave move lower - my good trade was being there for the "iii", which I at that point was labeling "c" actually - mainly because the left shoulder played out in such a nice 5-waver. So I had the end of the first "I" at where i currently have '(b)'. But the '(b)' is actually more of a 3-waver, so is '(a)', but '(c)' turned out as a perfect fiver.

So, from there we've had nicely proportioned 5 waves down (i-ii-ii-iv-v), where ii and iv alternate in their looks, 'v' is quite equal to 'i', and 'iv' divides the whole five wave sequence in a proportion of 0,382:0,618. So from there a correction ought to play out - by now I see it as a possible flat and I'd like some more retracement for the 5-waves down. The right shoulder has retraced all of the left shoulder. The momentum has been waning (typical of fives - see MACD below chart). That makes me want a correction to around 7,40 - previous 4th (iv) wave and at least 38,2 retracement. But then later, since the head and shoulders played out so nicely (and it is a continuation pattern), I see it going DOWN. And especially if you look at the historical 3-wave move up (labeled A?-B?-C?) and the subsequent "I"-"II" lower - I might be streching it, but the "II" ends quite close (assuming the SIZE of the chart) to where "A" ended... and momentum has been lower and lower in
A-C-II - again see MACD below. See it plays out the same way as in the smaller LS---RS I wrote about above. So is this another head and shoulders looking pattern maybe? All this suuggests we would see 5,08 in the coming year after a possible bounce I described previously... On the other hand... if the support region breaks very convincingly - it might just crash....

Hope it was at least interesting and might have helped you. What are your oppinions?

Sincerely,
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hefeiddd

The AUDUSD is setting up for a sell this morning. The impulsive decline shown on this 1 minute is being corrected as I type. The yellow circle is the ideal sell point.Attached Images

hefeiddd

My top count has the USDJPY going towards 118.00 to finish wave c of an a-b-c from 111.59. That count can be found at the daily technicals at www.dailyfx.com...posted every morning at 8 am. I update the 7 majors every morning.
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hefeiddd

joining the discussion on the euro - as to the last move, for now I do label it NOT the way u suggest, blueman. I feel it's an impulse. What I can do though as an alternative to Jamie's count, is label it a finished five wave impulse all the way from 1.336 to 1.3927 where the fifth wave is the extended (equals the distance travelled in waves 1 and three together) and is labeled like Jamie has presented today (for his alternative it is a third wave though). It fits into the following alternate count I have been considering for a long time..... and have kept a count on the daily charts of EURUSD going upwards from 1.163 in a triple "W-X-Y-X-Z" zig-zag! That was inspired by the unimpulsiveness of some of the upward pushes, as well as the "unhealthy" and unimpulsive overlaps all the way.... Anyway... for that count... today's top at the 1.393 region is nice... because at that point legs 1.3262-1.3851 (589 pips) and 1.3360-1.3927 (567 pips) are very equal in length - which in turn is quite typical for zig-zags. For that alternate - a major top can be in place or very close!

For a count like that... as an alternate - please see the chart below.

Happy trading.

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