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楼主: hefeiddd

一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-19 17:17 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction

Zigzag variant of current price movement against the dollar and possible alternate scenario tend to prevail.

Note
  • Once the opposite to the trend edge (base line or trend line) is tested any impulse or zigzag of any size may be considered to be completed. The inner wave counting of such a movement is of conventional character.
  • The error of the trend reversal points defining with the help of impulse method is about +/- 1..4 time units. Date on the weekly chart is the last day of the current week.
  • Often support and resistance levels, mentioned in the reports, are remote from the current price. In this case confirming or denying signals may be delayed. That is why in addition to the critical levels analysis inner structure analysis of the waves, moving in the same direction, should be used.
  • It should be remembered that EWA forecasts show the probable price movements. This report is subject to change and reveals the analyst opinion of the situation at the moment of its release.
  • Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides.
  • Survey wave counting, alternate variants and possible schematic price movements are given in:



1. USD/CHF


For CHF survey wave counting refer to Monthly-1006 and article Possible scenarios of USD strengthening (EWA of CHF, EUR, GBP, JPY, CAD). Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft for this currency on 480 min chart.



Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

Final downward wave Z is supposed to be forming, it may assume the shape of the zigzag (ordinary, double or triple).

In the mid-term perspective downtrend forming is supposed to continue, wave X completion is expected to be confirmed. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 2.



Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart.

Judging by current downward waves correlations the first pattern may assume the shape either of the impulse (a) or zigzag (w).

In the short-term plan downtrend forming is expected to continue. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.


2. EUR/USD


For EUR survey wave counting refer to Monthly-1006, Monthly Wave Analysis, September, 2006, Possible scenarios of USD strengthening (EWA of CHF, EUR, GBP, JPY, CAD). Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.



Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

Final upward wave Z is supposed to be forming, it may assume the shape of the zigzag (ordinary, double or triple).

In the mid-term perspective uptrend forming is supposed to continue, wave X completion is expected to be confirmed. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 4.



Figure 4. Wave counting on 120 min chart.

Judging by current upward waves correlations the first pattern may assume the shape either of the impulse (a) or zigzag (w).

In the short-term plan uptrend forming is expected to continue. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.


3. GBP/USD


For survey wave counting of this currency refer to Monthly-1006, Daily-070906 and Possible scenarios of USD strengthening (EWA of CHF, EUR, GBP, JPY, CAD). Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.



Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

Final upward wave [c] is supposed to be forming, it may assume the shape of the impulse or diagonal triangle.

In the mid-term perspective uptrend forming is supposed to continue, corrective wave completion is expected to be confirmed. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 6.



Figure 6. Wave counting on 120 min chart.

Judging by current correlation of the first upward waves, final wave [c] may assume the shape of the diagonal triangle.

In the short-term plan uptrend forming is expected to continue. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.


4. USD/JPY


For survey wave counting of this currency refer to Monthly-1006, Possible scenarios of USD strengthening (EWA of CHF, EUR, GBP, JPY, CAD). Refer to Figure 7 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.



Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

Final downward wave [c], which may assume the shape of the impulse or diagonal triangle, is supposed to be forming.

In the mid-term perspective downtrend forming is supposed to continue, wave *** completion is supposed to be confirmed. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 8.



Figure 8. Wave counting on 120 min chart.

Judging by current correlation of the first downward waves, final wave [c] may assume the shape of the diagonal triangle.

In the short-term plan downtrend forming is expected to continue. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.


Reference


Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
October 24, 2006
The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd
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2006-7-3

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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-19 17:19 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction

Zigzag variant of current price movement against the dollar and possible alternate scenario tend to prevail.

Note
  • Once the opposite to the trend edge (base line or trend line) is tested any impulse or zigzag of any size may be considered to be completed. The inner wave counting of such a movement is of conventional character.
  • The error of the trend reversal points defining with the help of impulse method is about +/- 1..4 time units. Date on the weekly chart is the last day of the current week.
  • Often support and resistance levels, mentioned in the reports, are remote from the current price. In this case confirming or denying signals may be delayed. That is why in addition to the critical levels analysis inner structure analysis of the waves, moving in the same direction, should be used.
  • It should be remembered that EWA forecasts show the probable price movements. This report is subject to change and reveals the analyst opinion of the situation at the moment of its release.
  • Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides.
  • Survey wave counting, alternate variants and possible schematic price movements are given in:



1. USD/CHF


For CHF survey wave counting refer to Monthly-1006 and article Possible scenarios of USD strengthening (EWA of CHF, EUR, GBP, JPY, CAD). Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft for this currency on 480 min chart.



Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

Final downward wave Z is supposed to be forming, it may assume the shape of the double or triple zigzag.

In the mid-term perspective downtrend forming is supposed to continue, wave X completion is expected to be confirmed. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 2.



Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart.

One of possible variants of wave counting is given in the chart.

In the short-term plan downtrend forming is expected to continue once supposed correction [x] is completed. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.


2. EUR/USD


For EUR survey wave counting refer to Monthly-1006, Monthly Wave Analysis, September, 2006, Possible scenarios of USD strengthening (EWA of CHF, EUR, GBP, JPY, CAD). Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.



Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

Final upward wave Z is supposed to be forming, it may assume the shape of the double or triple zigzag.

In the mid-term perspective uptrend forming is supposed to continue, wave X completion is expected to be confirmed. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 4.



Figure 4. Wave counting on 120 min chart.

One of possible variants of wave counting is given in the chart.

In the short-term plan uptrend forming is expected to continue once supposed correction [x] is completed. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.


3. GBP/USD


For survey wave counting of this currency refer to Monthly-1006, Daily-070906 and Possible scenarios of USD strengthening (EWA of CHF, EUR, GBP, JPY, CAD). Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.



Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

Final upward wave [c] is supposed to be forming, it may assume the shape of the diagonal triangle.

In the mid-term perspective uptrend forming is supposed to continue, corrective wave completion is expected to be confirmed. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 6.



Figure 6. Wave counting on 120 min chart.

One of possible variants of wave counting is given in the chart.

In the short-term plan uptrend forming is expected to continue once supposed correction (ii) is completed. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.


4. USD/JPY


For survey wave counting of this currency refer to Monthly-1006, Possible scenarios of USD strengthening (EWA of CHF, EUR, GBP, JPY, CAD). Refer to Figure 7 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.



Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

Final downward wave [c], which may assume the shape of the diagonal triangle, is supposed to be forming.

In the mid-term perspective downtrend forming is supposed to continue, wave *** completion is supposed to be confirmed. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 8.



Figure 8. Wave counting on 120 min chart.

One of possible variants of wave counting is given in the chart.

In the short-term plan downtrend forming is expected to continue once supposed correction (ii) is completed. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.


Reference


Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
October 25, 2006
The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd
金币:
奖励:
热心:
注册时间:
2006-7-3

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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-19 17:20 | 显示全部楼层
Note
  • Once the opposite to the trend edge (base line or trend line) is tested any impulse or zigzag of any size may be considered to be completed. The inner wave counting of such a movement is of conventional character.
  • The error of the trend reversal points defining with the help of impulse method is about +/- 1..4 time units. Date on the weekly chart is the last day of the current week.
  • Often support and resistance levels, mentioned in the reports, are remote from the current price. In this case confirming or denying signals may be delayed. That is why in addition to the critical levels analysis inner structure analysis of the waves, moving in the same direction, should be used.
  • It should be remembered that EWA forecasts show the probable price movements. This report is subject to change and reveals the analyst opinion of the situation at the moment of its release.
  • Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides.
  • Survey wave counting, alternate variants and possible schematic price movements are given in:



1. USD/CHF


For CHF survey wave counting refer to Monthly-1006 and article Possible scenarios of USD strengthening (EWA of CHF, EUR, GBP, JPY, CAD). Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft for this currency on 480 min chart.



Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

Final downward wave Z is supposed to be forming, it may assume the shape of the double or triple zigzag.

In the mid-term perspective downtrend forming is supposed to continue, wave X completion is expected to be confirmed. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 2.



Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart.

One of possible variants of wave counting is given in the chart.

In the short-term plan downtrend forming is expected to continue once supposed correction [x] is completed. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.


2. EUR/USD


For EUR survey wave counting refer to Monthly-1006, Monthly Wave Analysis, September, 2006, Possible scenarios of USD strengthening (EWA of CHF, EUR, GBP, JPY, CAD). Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.



Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

Final upward wave Z is supposed to be forming, it may assume the shape of the double or triple zigzag.

In the mid-term perspective uptrend forming is supposed to continue, wave X completion is expected to be confirmed. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 4.



Figure 4. Wave counting on 120 min chart.

One of possible variants of wave counting is given in the chart.

In the short-term plan uptrend forming is expected to continue once supposed correction [x] is completed. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.


3. GBP/USD


For survey wave counting of this currency refer to Monthly-1006, Daily-070906 and Possible scenarios of USD strengthening (EWA of CHF, EUR, GBP, JPY, CAD). Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.


Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

Final upward wave [c] is supposed to be forming, it may assume the shape of the diagonal triangle.

In the mid-term perspective uptrend forming is supposed to continue, corrective wave completion is expected to be confirmed. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 6.



Figure 6. Wave counting on 120 min chart.

One of possible variants of wave counting is given in the chart.

In the short-term plan uptrend forming is expected to continue once supposed correction (ii) is completed. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.


4. USD/JPY


For survey wave counting of this currency refer to Monthly-1006, Possible scenarios of USD strengthening (EWA of CHF, EUR, GBP, JPY, CAD). Refer to Figure 7 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.



Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

Final downward wave [c], which may assume the shape of the diagonal triangle, is supposed to be forming.

In the mid-term perspective downtrend forming is supposed to continue, wave *** completion is supposed to be confirmed. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 8.



Figure 8. Wave counting on 120 min chart.

One of possible variants of wave counting is given in the chart.

In the short-term plan downtrend forming is expected to continue once supposed correction (ii) is completed. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.


Reference


Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
October 26, 2006
The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd
金币:
奖励:
热心:
注册时间:
2006-7-3

回复 使用道具 举报

hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-19 17:23 | 显示全部楼层
Note
  • Once the opposite to the trend edge (base line or trend line) is tested any impulse or zigzag of any size may be considered to be completed. The inner wave counting of such a movement is of conventional character.
  • The error of the trend reversal points defining with the help of impulse method is about +/- 1..4 time units. Date on the weekly chart is the last day of the current week.
  • Often support and resistance levels, mentioned in the reports, are remote from the current price. In this case confirming or denying signals may be delayed. That is why in addition to the critical levels analysis inner structure analysis of the waves, moving in the same direction, should be used.
  • It should be remembered that EWA forecasts show the probable price movements. This report is subject to change and reveals the analyst opinion of the situation at the moment of its release.
  • Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides.
  • Survey wave counting, alternate variants and possible schematic price movements are given in:



1. USD/CHF


For CHF survey wave counting refer to Monthly-1006 and article Possible scenarios of USD strengthening (EWA of CHF, EUR, GBP, JPY, CAD). Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft for this currency on 480 min chart.



Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

Final downward wave Z is supposed to be forming, it may assume the shape of the double or triple zigzag.

In the mid-term perspective downtrend forming is supposed to continue, wave X completion is expected to be confirmed. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.


2. EUR/USD


For EUR survey wave counting refer to Monthly-1006, Monthly Wave Analysis, September, 2006, Possible scenarios of USD strengthening (EWA of CHF, EUR, GBP, JPY, CAD). Refer to Figure 2 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.



Figure 2. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

Final upward wave Z is supposed to be forming, it may assume the shape of the double or triple zigzag.

In the mid-term perspective uptrend forming is supposed to continue, wave X completion is expected to be confirmed. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.


3. GBP/USD


For survey wave counting of this currency refer to Monthly-1006, Daily-070906 and Possible scenarios of USD strengthening (EWA of CHF, EUR, GBP, JPY, CAD). Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.



Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

Final upward wave [c] is supposed to be forming, it may assume the shape of the diagonal triangle.

In the mid-term perspective uptrend forming is supposed to continue, corrective wave completion is expected to be confirmed. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.


4. USD/JPY


For survey wave counting of this currency refer to Monthly-1006, Possible scenarios of USD strengthening (EWA of CHF, EUR, GBP, JPY, CAD). Refer to Figure 4 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.



Figure 4. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

Final downward wave [c], which may assume the shape of the diagonal triangle, is supposed to be forming.

In the mid-term perspective downtrend forming is supposed to continue, wave *** completion is supposed to be confirmed. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.


Reference


Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
October 27, 2006
The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd
金币:
奖励:
热心:
注册时间:
2006-7-3

回复 使用道具 举报

hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-19 17:25 | 显示全部楼层
GBP/JPY summary

Long-term forecast on GBP/JPY, with projected targets specification, was released on August 30, 2004 (refer to Figures 2 and 3 in article Another 25+ figures are possible). This cross rate was supposed to rise by at least 25 figures with the highest projected target at 224.07.

Last week, 2 years and 2 months later, the highest value of GBP/JPY reached 224.32 (refer to Figure v1 below). Cross rate has passed about 30 figures, once the forecast was released, and realized it.



Figure v1. Wave counting on the weekly chart.

This two-year rally is interesting because of the following moments:
  • The fourth wave [iv] of the diagonal triangle is supposed to have assumed the shape of the skewed triangle (refer to Skewed triangles in FX).
  • Zigzag A-B-C of (Y) shows manifestation of alternation guidelines in zigzags, that is the second leg of the zigzag was formed more widely than the first one.
  • Another technical target, with zigzag legs correlation in the shape of fibo coefficient 1.27 (C=A*1.27), is at 225.89.
  • In case C=A*1.618, the target turns out to be at 235.85, though more likely it applies to the alternate scenario (it is given in the upper part of the chart).
  • As the second leg of zigzag C of (Y) is supposed to have assumed the shape of the contracting diagonal triangle, price may break upwards with confidence its upper generating line rather than just test it, as we see now. Moreover, judging by the wave structure, final wave [v] of C may continue its upward forming in the direction of another technical target at 225.89.
  • Alternate variant is still valid: diagonal triangle may assume a larger shape (it is given in the upper part of the chart). In this case the second technical target 235.85 seems to be quite reachable.

Note
  • Once the opposite to the trend edge (base line or trend line) is tested any impulse or zigzag of any size may be considered to be completed. The inner wave counting of such a movement is of conventional character.
  • The error of the trend reversal points defining with the help of impulse method is about +/- 1..4 time units. Date on the weekly chart is the last day of the current week.
  • Often support and resistance levels, mentioned in the reports, are remote from the current price. In this case confirming or denying signals may be delayed. That is why in addition to the critical levels analysis inner structure analysis of the waves, moving in the same direction, should be used.
  • It should be remembered that EWA forecasts show the probable price movements. This report is subject to change and reveals the analyst opinion of the situation at the moment of its release.
  • Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides.
  • Survey wave counting, alternate variants and possible schematic price movements are given in:



1. USD/CHF


For CHF survey wave counting refer to Monthly-1106 and article Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft for this currency on 480 min chart.



Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

Final downward wave Z is supposed to be forming, it may assume the shape of the zigzag. Supposed first wave (i) of downtrend may be assuming the shape of the wedge.

In the mid-term perspective downtrend forming is supposed to continue, wave X completion is expected to be confirmed. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.


2. EUR/USD


For EUR survey wave counting refer to Monthly-1106, Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007. Refer to Figure 2 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.



Figure 2. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

Final upward wave Z is supposed to be forming, it may assume the shape of the zigzag. Supposed first wave (i) of uptrend may be assuming the shape of the wedge.

In the mid-term perspective uptrend forming is supposed to continue, wave X completion is expected to be confirmed. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.


3. GBP/USD


For survey wave counting of this currency refer to Monthly-1106, Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.



Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

Final upward wave Z is supposed to be forming, it may assume the shape of the zigzag. Supposed first wave (i) of uptrend may be assuming the shape of the impulse.

In the mid-term perspective uptrend forming is supposed to continue, wave X completion is expected to be confirmed. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.


4. USD/JPY


For survey wave counting of this currency refer to Monthly-1106, Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007. Refer to Figure 4 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.



Figure 4. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

Downward wave C or Y is supposed to be forming. Expected movement of the European currencies may be specified as an impulsive one, whereas the yen is not going to show its cards yet.

In the mid-term perspective downtrend forming is supposed to continue, wave **B or X* completion is supposed to be confirmed. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.


Reference


Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
October 30, 2006
The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd
金币:
奖励:
热心:
注册时间:
2006-7-3

回复 使用道具 举报

hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-19 17:26 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction

It is high time for opened mid-term positions against the dollar (refer to Daily-161006, Daily-171006, Daily-241006) to be closed wholly or partly until the expected correction ends.

Note
  • Once the opposite to the trend edge (base line or trend line) is tested any impulse or zigzag of any size may be considered to be completed. The inner wave counting of such a movement is of conventional character.
  • The error of the trend reversal points defining with the help of impulse method is about +/- 1..4 time units. Date on the weekly chart is the last day of the current week.
  • Often support and resistance levels, mentioned in the reports, are remote from the current price. In this case confirming or denying signals may be delayed. That is why in addition to the critical levels analysis inner structure analysis of the waves, moving in the same direction, should be used.
  • It should be remembered that EWA forecasts show the probable price movements. This report is subject to change and reveals the analyst opinion of the situation at the moment of its release.
  • Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides.
  • Survey wave counting, alternate variants and possible schematic price movements are given in:



1. USD/CHF


For CHF survey wave counting refer to Monthly-1106 and article Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft for this currency on 480 min chart.



Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

Final downward wave Z is supposed to be forming, it may assume the shape of the zigzag. The first wave (i) of downtrend may be assuming the shape of the wedge.

According to the alternate scenario, described in article Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007, corrective wave X may keep forming in the shape of the triple three.

In the mid-term perspective downtrend is supposed to form after urgent correction and confirmation of wave X completion. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 2.



Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart.

One of possible variants of wave counting is given in the chart. Forming of final downward short thrust [5] of v is enough for completion of supposed impulse v of (i)?. Then correction should follow. Current wave counting may be adjusted depending on its depth and length.

In the short-term plan supposed correction (ii) is expected to start forming. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.


2. EUR/USD


For EUR survey wave counting refer to Месячном-1106, Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.



Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

Final upward wave Z is supposed to be forming, it may assume the shape of the zigzag. The first wave (i) of uptrend may be assuming the shape of the wedge.

According to the alternate scenario, described in article Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007, corrective wave X may keep forming in the shape of some extended correction.

In the mid-term perspective uptrend is supposed to form after urgent correction and confirmation of wave X completion. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 4.



Figure 4. Wave counting on 120 min chart.

One of possible variants of wave counting is given in the chart. Forming of final upward short thrust [5] of v is enough for completion of supposed impulse v of (i)?. Then correction should follow. Current wave counting may be adjusted depending on its depth and length.

In the short-term plan supposed correction (ii) is expected to start forming. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.


3. GBP/USD


For survey wave counting of this currency refer to Monthly-1106, Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007. Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.



Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

Final upward wave Z is supposed to be forming, it may assume the shape of the zigzag. The first wave (i) of uptrend may be assuming the shape of the impulse.

According to the alternate scenario, described in article Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007, corrective wave X may keep forming in the shape of some extended correction.

In the mid-term perspective uptrend is supposed to form after urgent correction and confirmation of wave X completion. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 6.



Figure 6. Wave counting on 120 min chart.

One of possible variants of wave counting is given in the chart. Forming of final upward short thrust [5] of v is enough for completion of supposed impulse v of (i)?. Then correction is expected, especially as the upper edge of the trend channel has been already broken. Current wave counting may be adjusted depending on correction depth and length.

In the short-term plan supposed correction (ii) is expected to start forming. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.


4. USD/JPY


For survey wave counting of this currency refer to Monthly-1106, Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007. Refer to Figure 7 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.



Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

Downward wave C or Y is supposed to be forming. Expected movement of the European currencies may be specified as an impulsive one, whereas JPY movement is still possible both in the shape of the impulse and of some diagonal structure.

In the mid-term perspective downtrend forming is supposed to continue after expected correction and confirmation of wave **B or X* completion. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 8.



Figure 8. Wave counting on 120 min chart.

One of possible variants of wave counting is given in the chart. Forming of final downward short thrust v is enough for completion of supposed impulse (i)?. Then correction is expected. Current wave counting may be adjusted depending on correction depth and length.

In the short-term plan supposed correction (ii)? is expected to start forming. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.


Reference


Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
October 31, 2006
The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd
金币:
奖励:
热心:
注册时间:
2006-7-3

回复 使用道具 举报

hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-19 17:28 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction

For those traders who want to open short-term positions in favor of the dollar the levels are marked on the 120min carts (crimson dashed line). Breakout of these levels once the current impulse is completed may signify the beginning of correction forming.

Note
  • Once the opposite to the trend edge (base line or trend line) is tested any impulse or zigzag of any size may be considered to be completed. The inner wave counting of such a movement is of conventional character.
  • The error of the trend reversal points defining with the help of impulse method is about +/- 1..4 time units. Date on the weekly chart is the last day of the current week.
  • Often support and resistance levels, mentioned in the reports, are remote from the current price. In this case confirming or denying signals may be delayed. That is why in addition to the critical levels analysis inner structure analysis of the waves, moving in the same direction, should be used.
  • It should be remembered that EWA forecasts show the probable price movements. This report is subject to change and reveals the analyst opinion of the situation at the moment of its release.
  • Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides.
  • Survey wave counting, alternate variants and possible schematic price movements are given in:



1. USD/CHF


For CHF survey wave counting refer to Monthly-1106 and article Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft for this currency on 480 min chart.



Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

Final downward wave Z is supposed to be forming, it may assume the shape of the zigzag. The first wave (i) of downtrend may be assuming the shape of the wedge.

According to another alternate variant, described in article Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007, nearest continuation of corrective wave X development in the shape of the triple three is possible, especially as the price is approaching the lower edge of wave X range.

In the mid-term perspective downtrend is supposed to form after urgent correction and confirmation of wave X completion. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 2.



Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart.

One of possible variants of wave counting is given in the chart. Impulse [5] of v is supposed to be almost completed.

In the short-term plan supposed correction (ii) is expected to start forming. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.


2. EUR/USD


For EUR survey wave counting refer to Monthly-1106, Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.



Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

Final upward wave Z is supposed to be forming, it may assume the shape of the zigzag. The first wave (i) of uptrend may be assuming the shape of the wedge.

According to another alternate variant, described in article Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007, nearest continuation of corrective wave X development in the shape of the extended correction is possible, especially as the price is approaching the upper horizontal edge of wave X range.

In the mid-term perspective uptrend is supposed to form after urgent correction and confirmation of wave X completion. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 4.



Figure 4. Wave counting on 120 min chart.

One of possible variants of wave counting is given in the chart. Impulse [5] of v is supposed to be almost completed.

In the short-term plan supposed correction (ii) is expected to start forming. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.


3. GBP/USD


For survey wave counting of this currency refer to Monthly-1106, Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007. Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.



Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

Final upward wave Z is supposed to be forming, it may assume the shape of the zigzag. The first wave (i) of uptrend may be assuming the shape of the impulse.

According to another alternate variant, described in article Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007, nearest continuation of corrective wave X development in the shape of some extended correction is possible, especially as the price has approached the upper horizontal edge of wave X range.

In the mid-term perspective uptrend is supposed to form after urgent correction and confirmation of wave X completion. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 6.



Figure 6. Wave counting on 120 min chart.

One of possible variants of wave counting is given in the chart. Impulse [5] of v is supposed to be almost completed.

In the short-term plan supposed correction (ii) is expected to start forming. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.


4. USD/JPY


For survey wave counting of this currency refer to Monthly-1106, Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007. Refer to Figure 7 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.



Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

Downward wave C or Y is supposed to be forming. Expected movement of the European currencies may be specified as an impulsive one, whereas JPY downward movement is still possible both in the shape of the impulse and of some diagonal structure.

In the mid-term perspective downtrend forming is supposed to continue after expected correction and confirmation of wave B or X completion. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 8.



Figure 8. Wave counting on 120 min chart.

One of possible variants of wave counting is given in the chart. Impulse v is supposed to be almost completed.

In the short-term plan supposed correction (iv) is expected to start forming. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.


Reference


Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
November 1, 2006
The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd
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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-19 17:29 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction

In one of my previous reports I've mentioned that the depth and length of the begun correction would help to specify further scenario of currencies movement and adjust wave counting. Really, shallow correction with following short impulse against the dollar may turn easily supposed impulse (i)? into a zigzag corrective construction [x] and resulting from it further forming of wave X (refer to the alternate counting on the charts).

Note
  • Once the opposite to the trend edge (base line or trend line) is tested any impulse or zigzag of any size may be considered to be completed. The inner wave counting of such a movement is of conventional character.
  • The error of the trend reversal points defining with the help of impulse method is about +/- 1..4 time units. Date on the weekly chart is the last day of the current week.
  • Often support and resistance levels, mentioned in the reports, are remote from the current price. In this case confirming or denying signals may be delayed. That is why in addition to the critical levels analysis inner structure analysis of the waves, moving in the same direction, should be used.
  • It should be remembered that EWA forecasts show the probable price movements. This report is subject to change and reveals the analyst opinion of the situation at the moment of its release.
  • Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides.
  • Survey wave counting, alternate variants and possible schematic price movements are given in:



1. USD/CHF


For CHF survey wave counting refer to Monthly-1106 and article Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft for this currency on 480 min chart.



Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

Final downward wave Z is supposed to be forming, it may assume the shape of the zigzag. The first wave (i) of downtrend may have assumed the shape of the wedge.

According to another alternate variant, described in article Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007, nearest continuation of corrective wave X development in the shape of the triple three is possible, especially as the price is approaching the lower edge of wave X range.

In the mid-term perspective downtrend is supposed to form after urgent correction and confirmation of wave X completion. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 2.



Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart.

One of possible variants of wave counting is given in the chart. Impulse [5] of v is supposed to be completed. From the point of view of technical analysis currently inversed pattern “Head and Shoulders” with the minimum target at 1.25 is forming.

In the short-term plan supposed correction (ii) is expected to keep forming. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.


2. EUR/USD


For EUR survey wave counting refer to Monthly-1106, Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.



Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

Final upward wave Z is supposed to be forming, it may assume the shape of the zigzag. The first wave (i) of uptrend may have assumed the shape of the wedge.

According to another alternate variant, described in article Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007, nearest continuation of corrective wave X development in the shape of some extended correction is possible, especially as the price is approaching the upper horizontal edge of wave X range.

In the mid-term perspective uptrend is supposed to form after urgent correction and confirmation of wave X completion. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 4.



Figure 4. Wave counting on 120 min chart.

One of possible variants of wave counting is given in the chart. Impulse [5] of v is supposed to be completed. From the point of view of technical analysis currently “Head and Shoulders” pattern with the minimum target at 1.27 is forming.

In the short-term plan supposed correction (ii) is expected to keep forming. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.


3. GBP/USD


For survey wave counting of this currency refer to Monthly-1106, Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007. Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.



Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

Final upward wave Z is supposed to be forming, it may assume the shape of the zigzag. The first wave (i) of uptrend may have assumed the shape of the impulse.

According to another alternate variant, described in article Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007, nearest continuation of corrective wave X development in the shape of some extended correction is possible, especially as the price has approached the upper horizontal edge of wave X range.

In the mid-term perspective uptrend is supposed to form after urgent correction and confirmation of wave X completion. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 6.



Figure 6. Wave counting on 120 min chart.

One of possible variants of wave counting is given in the chart. Impulse [5] of v is supposed to be completed. From the point of view of technical analysis currently “Head and Shoulders” pattern with the minimum target at 1.90 is forming.

In the short-term plan supposed correction (ii) is expected to keep forming. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.


4. USD/JPY


For survey wave counting of this currency refer to Monthly-1106, Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007. Refer to Figure 7 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.



Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

Downward wave C or Y is supposed to be forming. Expected movement of the European currencies may be specified as an impulsive one, whereas JPY downward movement is still possible both in the shape of the impulse and of some diagonal structure.

In the mid-term perspective downtrend forming is supposed to continue after expected correction and confirmation of wave **B or X* completion. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 8.



Figure 8. Wave counting on 120 min chart.

One of possible variants of wave counting is given in the chart. Impulse v is supposed to be completed.

In the short-term plan supposed correction (iv) is expected to keep forming. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.


Reference


Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
November 2, 2006
The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd
金币:
奖励:
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2006-7-3

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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-19 17:31 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction

The depth and length of the begun correction will help to specify further scenario of currencies movement and adjust wave counting. Really, shallow correction with following short price thrust against the dollar may turn easily supposed impulse (i)? into a zigzag corrective construction [x] and resulting from it further forming of wave X (refer to the alternate wave counting on the charts).

Note
  • Once the opposite to the trend edge (base line or trend line) is tested any impulse or zigzag of any size may be considered to be completed. The inner wave counting of such a movement is of conventional character.
  • The error of the trend reversal points defining with the help of impulse method is about +/- 1..4 time units. Date on the weekly chart is the last day of the current week.
  • Often support and resistance levels, mentioned in the reports, are remote from the current price. In this case confirming or denying signals may be delayed. That is why in addition to the critical levels analysis inner structure analysis of the waves, moving in the same direction, should be used.
  • It should be remembered that EWA forecasts show the probable price movements. This report is subject to change and reveals the analyst opinion of the situation at the moment of its release.
  • Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides.
  • Survey wave counting, alternate variants and possible schematic price movements are given in:



1. USD/CHF


For CHF survey wave counting refer to Monthly-1106 and article Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft for this currency on 480 min chart.



Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

Final downward wave Z is supposed to be forming, it may assume the shape of the zigzag. The first wave (i) of downtrend may have assumed the shape of the wedge.

According to another alternate variant, described in article Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007, nearest continuation of corrective wave X development in the shape of the triple three is possible, especially as the price is approaching the lower edge of wave X range.

In the mid-term perspective downtrend is supposed to form after urgent correction and confirmation of wave X completion. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 2.



Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart.

One of possible variants of wave counting is given in the chart. Impulse [5] of v is supposed to be completed. From the point of view of technical analysis currently inversed pattern “Head and Shoulders” with the minimum target at 1.25 is forming (red-yellow ellipse).

In the short-term plan supposed correction (ii) is expected to keep forming. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.


2. EUR/USD


For EUR survey wave counting refer to Monthly-1106, Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.



Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

Final upward wave Z is supposed to be forming, it may assume the shape of the zigzag. The first wave (i) of uptrend may have assumed the shape of the wedge.

According to another alternate variant, described in article Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007, nearest continuation of corrective wave X development in the shape of some extended correction is possible, especially as the price is approaching the upper horizontal edge of wave X range.

In the mid-term perspective uptrend is supposed to form after urgent correction and confirmation of wave X completion. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 4.



Figure 4. Wave counting on 120 min chart.

One of possible variants of wave counting is given in the chart. Impulse [5] of v is supposed to be completed. From the point of view of technical analysis currently “Head and Shoulders” pattern with the minimum target at 1.27 is forming (red-yellow ellipse).

In the short-term plan supposed correction (ii) is expected to keep forming. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.


3. GBP/USD


For survey wave counting of this currency refer to Monthly-1106, Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007. Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.



Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

Final upward wave Z is supposed to be forming, it may assume the shape of the zigzag. The first wave (i) of uptrend may have assumed the shape of the impulse.

According to another alternate variant, described in article Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007, nearest continuation of corrective wave X development in the shape of some extended correction is possible, especially as the price has approached the upper horizontal edge of wave X range.

In the mid-term perspective uptrend is supposed to form after urgent correction and confirmation of wave X completion. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 6.



Figure 6. Wave counting on 120 min chart.

One of possible variants of wave counting is given in the chart. Impulse [5] of v is supposed to be completed. From the point of view of technical analysis currently “Head and Shoulders” pattern with the minimum target at 1.90 is forming (red-yellow ellipse).

In the short-term plan supposed correction (ii) is expected to keep forming. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.


4. USD/JPY


For survey wave counting of this currency refer to Monthly-1106, Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007. Refer to Figure 7 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.



Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

Downward wave C or Y is supposed to be forming. Expected movement of the European currencies may be specified as an impulsive one, whereas JPY downward movement is still possible both in the shape of the impulse and of some diagonal structure.

In the mid-term perspective downtrend forming is supposed to continue after expected correction and confirmation of wave B or X completion. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 8.



Figure 8. Wave counting on 120 min chart.

One of possible variants of wave counting is given in the chart. Impulse v is supposed to be completed.

In the short-term plan supposed correction (iv) is expected to keep forming. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.


Reference


Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
November 3, 2006
The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd
金币:
奖励:
热心:
注册时间:
2006-7-3

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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-19 17:32 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction

The depth and length of the begun correction will help to specify further scenario of currencies movement and adjust wave counting. Shallow correction with following short price thrust against the dollar may turn easily supposed impulse (i)? into a zigzag corrective construction [x] and resulting from it further forming of wave X (refer to the alternate wave counting on the charts).

It is high time for traders, who opened short-term positions in favor of the dollar (refer to Daily-011106, Daily-021106, Daily-031106), to think of their closing.

Note
  • Once the opposite to the trend edge (base line or trend line) is tested any impulse or zigzag of any size may be considered to be completed. The inner wave counting of such a movement is of conventional character.
  • The error of the trend reversal points defining with the help of impulse method is about +/- 1..4 time units. Date on the weekly chart is the last day of the current week.
  • Often support and resistance levels, mentioned in the reports, are remote from the current price. In this case confirming or denying signals may be delayed. That is why in addition to the critical levels analysis inner structure analysis of the waves, moving in the same direction, should be used.
  • It should be remembered that EWA forecasts show the probable price movements. This report is subject to change and reveals the analyst opinion of the situation at the moment of its release.
  • Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides.
  • Survey wave counting, alternate variants and possible schematic price movements are given in:



1. USD/CHF


For CHF survey wave counting refer to Monthly-1106 and article Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft for this currency on 480 min chart.



Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

Final downward wave Z is supposed to be forming, it may assume the shape of the zigzag. The first wave (i) of downtrend may have assumed the shape of the wedge.

According to possible alternate variant, described in article Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007, nearest continuation of corrective wave X development in the shape of the triple three pattern is possible.

Price has approached the upper edge of the alternate channel, RSI has reached its resistance level. Reversal and price fall to 1.24 are highly probable.

In the mid-term perspective confirmation of either the main scenario or the alternate one is expected. Wave picture is supposed to become clearer. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.


2. EUR/USD


For EUR survey wave counting refer to Monthly-1106, Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007. Refer to Figure 2 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.



Figure 2. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

Final upward wave Z is supposed to be forming, it may assume the shape of the zigzag. The first wave (i) of uptrend may have assumed the shape of the wedge.

According to possible alternate variant, described in article Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007, nearest continuation of corrective wave X development in the shape of some extended correction is possible.

Price has approached the lower edge of the alternate channel, RSI has reached its resistance level. Reversal and price rise to 1.28 are highly probable.

In the mid-term perspective confirmation of either the main scenario or the alternate one is expected. Wave picture is supposed to become clearer. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.


3. GBP/USD


For survey wave counting of this currency refer to Monthly-1106, Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.



Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

Final upward wave Z is supposed to be forming, it may assume the shape of the zigzag. The first wave (i) of uptrend may have assumed the shape of the impulse.

According to another alternate variant, described in article Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007, nearest continuation of corrective wave X development in the shape of some extended correction is possible.

Price has approached the lower edge of the alternate channel, RSI has reached its resistance level. Reversal and price rise to 1.91 are highly probable.

In the mid-term perspective confirmation of either the main scenario or the alternate one is expected. Wave picture is supposed to become clearer. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.


4. USD/JPY


For survey wave counting of this currency refer to Monthly-1106, Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007. Refer to Figure 4 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.



Figure 4. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

Downward wave C or Y is supposed to be forming. Expected movement of the European currencies may be specified as an impulsive one, whereas JPY downward movement is still possible both in the shape of the impulse and of some diagonal structure.

Price has approached the upper edge of the alternate channel, RSI has reached its resistance level. Reversal and price fall to 116 are highly probable.

In the mid-term perspective confirmation of either the main scenario or the alternate one is expected. Wave picture is supposed to become clearer. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.


Reference


Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
November 6, 2006
The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd
金币:
奖励:
热心:
注册时间:
2006-7-3

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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-19 17:36 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction

Price may have preferred one of the alternate variants (refer to Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007). We should keep watch over the trend of events at the moment, the main variant is not canceled yet.

Note
  • Once the opposite to the trend edge (base line or trend line) is tested any impulse or zigzag of any size may be considered to be completed. The inner wave counting of such a movement is of conventional character.
  • The error of the trend reversal points defining with the help of impulse method is about +/- 1..4 time units. Date on the weekly chart is the last day of the current week.
  • Often support and resistance levels, mentioned in the reports, are remote from the current price. In this case confirming or denying signals may be delayed. That is why in addition to the critical levels analysis inner structure analysis of the waves, moving in the same direction, should be used.
  • It should be remembered that EWA forecasts show the probable price movements. This report is subject to change and reveals the analyst opinion of the situation at the moment of its release.
  • Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides.
  • Survey wave counting, alternate variants and possible schematic price movements are given in:



1. USD/CHF


For CHF survey wave counting refer to Monthly-1106 and article Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft for this currency on 480 min chart.



Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

Final downward wave Z is supposed to be forming, it may assume the shape of the zigzag. The first wave (i) of downtrend may have assumed the shape of the wedge.

According to possible alternate variant, described in article Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007, nearest continuation of corrective wave X development in the shape of the triple three pattern is possible.

Price reversed at the upper edge of the alternate channel. It is highly probable that price will fall to 1.24 and further.

In the mid-term perspective confirmation of either the main scenario or the alternate one is expected. Wave picture is supposed to become clearer. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 2.



Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart.

One of possible variants of wave counting is given in the chart. Price may have started forming of a new downtrend.

In the short-term plan downtrend forming is expected to continue, wave picture is supposed to become clearer. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.


2. EUR/USD


For EUR survey wave counting refer to Monthly-1106, Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.



Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

Final upward wave Z is supposed to be forming, it may assume the shape of the zigzag. The first wave (i) of uptrend may have assumed the shape of the wedge.

According to possible alternate variant, described in article Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007, nearest continuation of corrective wave X development in the shape of some extended correction is possible.

Price reversed at the lower edge of the alternate channel. It is highly probable that price will rise to 1.28 and further.

In the mid-term perspective confirmation of either the main scenario or the alternate one is expected. Wave picture is supposed to become clearer. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 4.



Figure 4. Wave counting on 120 min chart.

One of possible variants of wave counting is given in the chart. Price may have started to form new uptrend.

In the short-term plan uptrend is supposed to keep forming. Wave picture is expected to become clearer. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.


3. GBP/USD


For survey wave counting of this currency refer to Monthly-1106, Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007. Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.



Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

Final upward wave Z is supposed to be forming, it may assume the shape of the zigzag. The first wave (i) of uptrend may have assumed the shape of the impulse.

According to another alternate variant, described in article Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007, nearest continuation of corrective wave X development in the shape of some extended correction is possible.

Price reversed at the lower edge of the alternate channel. It is highly probable that price will rise to 1.91 and further.

In the mid-term perspective confirmation of either the main scenario or the alternate one is expected. Wave picture is supposed to become clearer. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 6.



Figure 6. Wave counting on 120 min chart.

One of possible variants of wave counting is given in the chart. Price may have started to form new uptrend.

In the short-term plan uptrend is supposed to keep forming. Wave picture is expected to become clearer. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.


4. USD/JPY


For survey wave counting of this currency refer to Monthly-1106, Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007. Refer to Figure 7 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.



Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

Downward wave C or Y is supposed to be forming. Expected movement of the European currencies may be specified as an impulsive one, whereas JPY downward movement is still possible both in the shape of the impulse and of some diagonal structure.

Price reversed at the upper edge of the alternate channel. It is highly probable that price will fall to 116 and further.

In the mid-term perspective confirmation of either the main scenario or the alternate one is expected. Wave picture is supposed to become clearer. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 8.



Figure 8. Wave counting on 120 min chart.

One of possible variants of wave counting is given in the chart. Frankly speaking, such deep retracements are not typical of the impulse. Price may have begun to form a new downtrend.

In the short-term plan downtrend is supposed to keep forming. Wave picture is expected to become clearer. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.


Reference


Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
November 7, 2006
The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd
金币:
奖励:
热心:
注册时间:
2006-7-3

回复 使用道具 举报

hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-19 17:37 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction

Within the last two days short impulse against the dollar formed on the described pairs, it completed yesterday by 18:30 (Moscow time). Its ending may be the top of the second wave [x] of the extended correction of the alternate scenario. Thus, nearest reversal of the mid-term trend in favor of the dollar is possible. Though there is no unity even between the four described pairs, as some of them formed not full but truncated structures.

Note
  • Once the opposite to the trend edge (base line or trend line) is tested any impulse or zigzag of any size may be considered to be completed. The inner wave counting of such a movement is of conventional character.
  • The error of the trend reversal points defining with the help of impulse method is about +/- 1..4 time units. Date on the weekly chart is the last day of the current week.
  • Often support and resistance levels, mentioned in the reports, are remote from the current price. In this case confirming or denying signals may be delayed. That is why in addition to the critical levels analysis inner structure analysis of the waves, moving in the same direction, should be used.
  • It should be remembered that EWA forecasts show the probable price movements. This report is subject to change and reveals the analyst opinion of the situation at the moment of its release.
  • Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides.
  • Survey wave counting, alternate variants and possible schematic price movements are given in:



1. USD/CHF


For CHF survey wave counting refer to Monthly-1106 and article Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft for this currency on 480 min chart.



Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

Final downward wave Z is supposed to be forming, it may assume the shape of the zigzag. The first wave (i) of downtrend has assumed the shape of the wedge.

According to possible alternate variant, described in article Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007, nearest continuation of corrective wave X development in the shape of the triple three pattern is possible.

In the mid-term perspective confirmation of either the main scenario or the alternate one is expected. Wave picture is supposed to become clearer. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.


2. EUR/USD


For EUR survey wave counting refer to Monthly-1106, Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007. Refer to Figure 2 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.



Figure 2. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

Final upward wave Z is supposed to be forming, it may assume the shape of the zigzag. The first wave (i) of uptrend may have assumed the shape of the wedge.

According to possible alternate variant, described in article Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007, nearest continuation of corrective wave X development in the shape of some extended correction is possible.

In the mid-term perspective confirmation of either the main scenario or the alternate one is expected. Wave picture is supposed to become clearer. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.


3. GBP/USD


For survey wave counting of this currency refer to Monthly-1106, Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.



Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

Final upward wave Z is supposed to be forming, it may assume the shape of the zigzag. The first wave (i) of uptrend may have assumed the shape of the impulse.

According to possible alternate variant, described in article Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007, nearest continuation of corrective wave X development in the shape of some extended correction is possible.

In the mid-term perspective confirmation of either the main scenario or the alternate one is expected. Wave picture is supposed to become clearer. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.


4. USD/JPY


For survey wave counting of this currency refer to Monthly-1106, Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007. Refer to Figure 4 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.



Figure 4. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

Downward wave C or Y is supposed to be forming. Expected movement of the European currencies may be specified as an impulsive one, whereas JPY downward movement is still possible both in the shape of the impulse and of some diagonal structure.

According to possible alternate variant, described in article Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007, nearest continuation of corrective wave B development in the shape of the double zigzag is possible.

In the mid-term perspective confirmation of either the main scenario or the alternate one is expected. Wave picture is supposed to become clearer. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.


Reference


Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
November 8, 2006
The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd
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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-19 17:41 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction

The variant with the truncated ending of wave [x] of the alternate scenario was described yesterday (refer to Daily-081106). Though the main variant, under which the second wave may keep forming in the shape of the (extended) flat, is not cancelled yet.

Note
  • Once the opposite to the trend edge (base line or trend line) is tested any impulse or zigzag of any size may be considered to be completed. The inner wave counting of such a movement is of conventional character.
  • The error of the trend reversal points defining with the help of impulse method is about +/- 1..4 time units. Date on the weekly chart is the last day of the current week.
  • Often support and resistance levels, mentioned in the reports, are remote from the current price. In this case confirming or denying signals may be delayed. That is why in addition to the critical levels analysis inner structure analysis of the waves, moving in the same direction, should be used.
  • It should be remembered that EWA forecasts show the probable price movements. This report is subject to change and reveals the analyst opinion of the situation at the moment of its release.
  • Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides.
  • Survey wave counting, alternate variants and possible schematic price movements are given in:



1. USD/CHF


For CHF survey wave counting refer to Monthly-1106 and article Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft for this currency on 480 min chart.



Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

Final downward wave Z is supposed to be forming, it may assume the shape of the zigzag. The first wave (i) of downtrend has assumed the shape of the wedge.

According to possible alternate variant, described in article Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007, nearest continuation of corrective wave X development in the shape of the triple three pattern is possible.

In the mid-term perspective confirmation of either the main scenario or the alternate one is expected. Wave picture is supposed to become clearer. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 2.



Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart.

One of possible variants of wave counting is given in the chart. Price may keep forming wave (ii) in the shape of the flat.

In the short-term plan downtrend forming is expected to continue, wave picture is supposed to become clearer. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.


2. EUR/USD


For EUR survey wave counting refer to Monthly-1106, Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.



Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

Final upward wave Z is supposed to be forming, it may assume the shape of the zigzag. The first wave (i) of uptrend may have assumed the shape of the wedge.

According to possible alternate variant, described in article Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007, nearest continuation of corrective wave X development in the shape of some extended correction is possible.

In the mid-term perspective confirmation of either the main scenario or the alternate one is expected. Wave picture is supposed to become clearer. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 4.



Figure 4. Wave counting on 120 min chart.

One of possible variants of wave counting is given in the chart. Price may keep forming wave (ii) in the shape of the flat.

In the short-term plan uptrend is supposed to keep forming. Wave picture is expected to become clearer. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.


3. GBP/USD


For survey wave counting of this currency refer to Monthly-1106, Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007. Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.



Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

Final upward wave Z is supposed to be forming, it may assume the shape of the zigzag. The first wave (i) of uptrend may have assumed the shape of the impulse.

According to the alternate variant, described in article Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007, nearest continuation of corrective wave X development in the shape of some extended correction is possible.

In the mid-term perspective confirmation of either the main scenario or the alternate one is expected. Wave picture is supposed to become clearer. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 6.



Figure 6. Wave counting on 120 min chart.

One of possible variants of wave counting is given in the chart. Price may keep forming wave (ii) in the shape of the flat.

In the short-term plan uptrend is supposed to keep forming. Wave picture is expected to become clearer. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.


4. USD/JPY


For survey wave counting of this currency refer to Monthly-1106, Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007. Refer to Figure 7 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.



Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

Downward wave C or Y is supposed to be forming. Expected movement of the European currencies may be specified as an impulsive one, whereas JPY downward movement is still possible both in the shape of the impulse and of some diagonal structure.

Price reversed at the upper edge of the channel. It is highly probable that price will fall to 116 and further.

In the mid-term perspective confirmation of either the main scenario or the alternate one is expected. Wave picture is supposed to become clearer. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 8.



Figure 8. Wave counting on 120 min chart.

One of possible variants of wave counting is given in the chart. Frankly speaking, such deep retracements are not typical of the impulse.

In the short-term plan downtrend is supposed to keep forming. Wave picture is expected to become clearer. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.


Reference


Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
November 9, 2006
The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd
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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-19 17:42 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction

It is high time for the traders, which have opened short-term positions against the dollar (refer to Daily-091106), to close them and think of new mid-term positions in favor of the dollar, as the scale is being weighted gradually on behalf of the alternate scenarios, described in details in article Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007 and Monthly-1106.

Note
  • Once the opposite to the trend edge (base line or trend line) is tested any impulse or zigzag of any size may be considered to be completed. The inner wave counting of such a movement is of conventional character.
  • The error of the trend reversal points defining with the help of impulse method is about +/- 1..4 time units. Date on the weekly chart is the last day of the current week.
  • Often support and resistance levels, mentioned in the reports, are remote from the current price. In this case confirming or denying signals may be delayed. That is why in addition to the critical levels analysis inner structure analysis of the waves, moving in the same direction, should be used.
  • It should be remembered that EWA forecasts show the probable price movements. This report is subject to change and reveals the analyst opinion of the situation at the moment of its release.
  • Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides.
  • Survey wave counting, alternate variants and possible schematic price movements are given in:



1. USD/CHF


For CHF survey wave counting refer to Monthly-1106 and article Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft for this currency on 480 min chart.



Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

Price has almost reached the lower edge of supposed corrective wave X channel. It is highly probable that in the mid-term perspective it reverses in favor of the dollar and forms the triple three pattern.

In the mid-term perspective confirmation of either the main scenario or the alternate one is expected. Wave picture is supposed to become clearer. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.


2. EUR/USD


For EUR survey wave counting refer to Monthly-1106, Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007. Refer to Figure 2 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.



Figure 2. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

Price has almost reached the level of the previous high , having formed a narrowing channel, characteristic of horizontal triangles. Its mid-term reverse in favor of the dollar is highly probable.

In the mid-term perspective confirmation of either the main scenario or the alternate one is expected. Wave picture is supposed to become clearer. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.


3. GBP/USD


For survey wave counting of this currency refer to Monthly-1106, Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.



Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

Price has almost reached the level of the previous high , having formed a narrowing channel, characteristic of horizontal barrier triangles. In case price exceeds this level, skewed triangle forming is possible. Mid-term trend reverse in favor of the dollar is highly probable at the moment.

In the mid-term perspective confirmation of either the main scenario or the alternate one is expected. Wave picture is supposed to become clearer. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.


4. USD/JPY


For survey wave counting of this currency refer to Monthly-1106, Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007. Refer to Figure 4 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.



Figure 4. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

Price is at the lower edge of the trend channel of the alternate scenario. Its mid-term reverse in favor of the dollar and further forming of wave B in the shape of the double three pattern are highly probable.

In the mid-term perspective confirmation of either the main scenario or the alternate one is expected. Wave picture is supposed to become clearer. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.


Reference


Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
November 10, 2006
The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd
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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-19 17:48 | 显示全部楼层
Note
  • Once the opposite to the trend edge (base line or trend line) is tested any impulse or zigzag of any size may be considered to be completed. The inner wave counting of such a movement is of conventional character.
  • The error of the trend reversal points defining with the help of impulse method is about +/- 1..4 time units. Date on the weekly chart is the last day of the current week.
  • Often support and resistance levels, mentioned in the reports, are remote from the current price. In this case confirming or denying signals may be delayed. That is why in addition to the critical levels analysis inner structure analysis of the waves, moving in the same direction, should be used.
  • It should be remembered that EWA forecasts show the probable price movements. This report is subject to change and reveals the analyst opinion of the situation at the moment of its release.
  • Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides.
  • Survey wave counting, alternate variants and possible schematic price movements are given in:



1. USD/CHF


For CHF survey wave counting refer to Monthly-1106 and article Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft for this currency on 480 min chart.



Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

Price has almost reached the lower edge of supposed corrective wave X channel. It is highly probable that in the mid-term perspective it will reverse in favor of the dollar and wave X will keep forming in the shape of the triple three.

In the mid-term perspective uptrend is expected to form. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 2.



Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart.

One of possible variants of wave counting is given in the chart.

In the short-term perspective forming of the trend upward reversal is expected. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.


2. EUR/USD


For EUR survey wave counting refer to Monthly-1106, Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.



Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

Price has almost reached the level of the previous high , having formed a narrowing channel, characteristic of horizontal triangles. It is highly probable that in the mid-term perspective it will reverse in favor of the dollar and wave X will keep forming in the shape of the horizontal extended correction.

In the mid-term perspective downtrend is expected to form. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 4.



Figure 4. Wave counting on 120 min chart.

One of possible variants of wave counting is given in the chart.

In the short-term perspective forming of the trend downward reversal is expected. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.


3. GBP/USD


For survey wave counting of this currency refer to Monthly-1106, Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007. Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.



Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

Price has overpassed the level of the previous high , having formed a narrowing channel, characteristic of skewed triangles. Its mid-term reversal in favor of the dollar and further forming of wave X in the shape of the horizontal extended correction is highly probable.

In the mid-term perspective downtrend is expected to form. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 6.



Figure 6. Wave counting on 120 min chart.

One of possible variants of wave counting is given in the chart.

In the short-term perspective forming of the trend downward reversal is expected. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.


4. USD/JPY


For survey wave counting of this currency refer to Monthly-1106, Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007. Refer to Figure 7 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.



Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

Price has almost reached the lower edge of the supposed corrective wave B channel. It is highly probable that in the mid-term perspective it will reverse in favor of the dollar and wave B will keep forming in the shape of the double zigzag.

In the mid-term perspective uptrend is expected to form. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 8.

[img]http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/061
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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-19 18:05 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction

Price has only begun to move in the expected direction and this scenario is not confirmed yet.

Note
  • Once the opposite to the trend edge (base line or trend line) is tested any impulse or zigzag of any size may be considered to be completed. The inner wave counting of such a movement is of conventional character.
  • The error of the trend reversal points defining with the help of impulse method is about +/- 1..4 time units. Date on the weekly chart is the last day of the current week.
  • Often support and resistance levels, mentioned in the reports, are remote from the current price. In this case confirming or denying signals may be delayed. That is why in addition to the critical levels analysis inner structure analysis of the waves, moving in the same direction, should be used.
  • It should be remembered that EWA forecasts show the probable price movements. This report is subject to change and reveals the analyst opinion of the situation at the moment of its release.
  • Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides.
  • Survey wave counting, alternate variants and possible schematic price movements are given in:



1. USD/CHF


For CHF survey wave counting refer to Monthly-1106 and article Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft for this currency on 480 min chart.



Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

Price has almost reached the lower edge of supposed corrective wave X channel. It is highly probable that in the mid-term perspective it will reverse in favor of the dollar and wave X will keep forming in the shape of the triple three.

In the mid-term perspective uptrend is expected to form. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 2.



Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart.

One of possible variants of wave counting is given in the chart.

In the short-term perspective uptrend confirmation is expected. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.


2. EUR/USD


For EUR survey wave counting refer to Monthly-1106, Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.



Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

Price has almost reached the level of the previous high , having formed a narrowing channel, characteristic of horizontal triangles. It is highly probable that in the mid-term perspective it will reverse in favor of the dollar and wave X will keep forming in the shape of the horizontal extended correction.

In the mid-term perspective downtrend is expected to form. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 4.



Figure 4. Wave counting on 120 min chart.

One of possible variants of wave counting is given in the chart.

In the short-term perspective downtrend confirmation is expected. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.


3. GBP/USD


For survey wave counting of this currency refer to Monthly-1106, Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007. Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.



Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

Price has overpassed the level of the previous high , having formed a narrowing channel, characteristic of skewed triangles. Its mid-term reversal in favor of the dollar and further forming of wave X in the shape of the horizontal extended correction is highly probable.

In the mid-term perspective downtrend is expected to form. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 6.



Figure 6. Wave counting on 120 min chart.

One of possible variants of wave counting is given in the chart.

In the short-term perspective downtrend confirmation is expected. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.


4. USD/JPY


For survey wave counting of this currency refer to Monthly-1106, Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007. Refer to Figure 7 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.



Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

Price has almost reached the lower edge of the supposed corrective wave B channel. It is highly probable that in the mid-term perspective it will reverse in favor of the dollar and wave B will keep forming in the shape of the double zigzag.

In the mid-term perspective uptrend is expected to form. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 8.



Figure 8. Wave counting on 120 min chart.

One of possible variants of wave counting is given in the chart.

In the short-term perspective uptrend confirmation is expected. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.


Reference


Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
November 14, 2006
The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd
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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-19 18:07 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction

Price has only begun to move in the expected direction and this scenario is not confirmed yet.

Note
  • Once the opposite to the trend edge (base line or trend line) is tested any impulse or zigzag of any size may be considered to be completed. The inner wave counting of such a movement is of conventional character.
  • The error of the trend reversal points defining with the help of impulse method is about +/- 1..4 time units. Date on the weekly chart is the last day of the current week.
  • Often support and resistance levels, mentioned in the reports, are remote from the current price. In this case confirming or denying signals may be delayed. That is why in addition to the critical levels analysis inner structure analysis of the waves, moving in the same direction, should be used.
  • It should be remembered that EWA forecasts show the probable price movements. This report is subject to change and reveals the analyst opinion of the situation at the moment of its release.
  • Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides.
  • Survey wave counting, alternate variants and possible schematic price movements are given in:



1. USD/CHF


For CHF survey wave counting refer to Monthly-1106 and article Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft for this currency on 480 min chart.



Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

Price has almost reached the lower edge of supposed corrective wave X channel. It is highly probable that in the mid-term perspective it will reverse in favor of the dollar and wave X will keep forming in the shape of the triple three.

In the mid-term perspective uptrend is expected to form. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 2.



Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart.

One of possible variants of wave counting is given in the chart.

In the short-term perspective uptrend confirmation is expected. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.


2. EUR/USD


For EUR survey wave counting refer to Monthly-1106, Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.



Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

Price has almost reached the level of the previous high , having formed a narrowing channel, characteristic of horizontal triangles. It is highly probable that in the mid-term perspective it will reverse in favor of the dollar and wave X will keep forming in the shape of the horizontal extended correction.

In the mid-term perspective downtrend is expected to form. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 4.



Figure 4. Wave counting on 120 min chart.

One of possible variants of wave counting is given in the chart.

In the short-term perspective downtrend confirmation is expected. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.


3. GBP/USD


For survey wave counting of this currency refer to Monthly-1106, Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007. Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.



Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

Price has overpassed the level of the previous high , having formed a narrowing channel, characteristic of skewed triangles. Its mid-term reversal in favor of the dollar and further forming of wave X in the shape of the horizontal extended correction is highly probable.

In the mid-term perspective downtrend is expected to form. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 6.



Figure 6. Wave counting on 120 min chart.

One of possible variants of wave counting is given in the chart.

In the short-term perspective downtrend confirmation is expected. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.


4. USD/JPY


For survey wave counting of this currency refer to Monthly-1106, Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007. Refer to Figure 7 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.



Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

Price has almost reached the lower edge of the supposed corrective wave B channel. It is highly probable that in the mid-term perspective it will reverse in favor of the dollar and wave B will keep forming in the shape of the double zigzag.

In the mid-term perspective uptrend is expected to form. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 8.



Figure 8. Wave counting on 120 min chart.

One of possible variants of wave counting is given in the chart.

In the short-term perspective uptrend confirmation is expected. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.


Reference


Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
November 15, 2006
The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd
金币:
奖励:
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2006-7-3

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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-19 18:09 | 显示全部楼层
Note
  • Once the opposite to the trend edge (base line or trend line) is tested any impulse or zigzag of any size may be considered to be completed. The inner wave counting of such a movement is of conventional character.
  • The error of the trend reversal points defining with the help of impulse method is about +/- 1..4 time units. Date on the weekly chart is the last day of the current week.
  • Often support and resistance levels, mentioned in the reports, are remote from the current price. In this case confirming or denying signals may be delayed. That is why in addition to the critical levels analysis inner structure analysis of the waves, moving in the same direction, should be used.
  • It should be remembered that EWA forecasts show the probable price movements. This report is subject to change and reveals the analyst opinion of the situation at the moment of its release.
  • Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides.
  • Survey wave counting, alternate variants and possible schematic price movements are given in:



1. USD/CHF


For CHF survey wave counting refer to Monthly-1106 and article Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft for this currency on 480 min chart.



Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

It is possible that mid-term reverse in favor of the dollar has already happened, wave X keeps forming in the shape of the triple three. Ending of the second wave [x] is the critical level.

In the mid-term perspective uptrend forming is expected to continue. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 2.



Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart.

One of possible variants of wave counting is given in the chart. Upward movement may continue in the zigzag mode.

In the short-term perspective uptrend is expected to continue once supposed wave (x) is formed. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.


2. EUR/USD


For EUR survey wave counting refer to Monthly-1106, Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.



Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

It is possible that mid-term reverse in favor of the dollar has already happened, wave X keeps forming in the shape of the horizontal triangle. Ending of wave [d] is the critical level.

In the mid-term perspective downtrend forming is expected to continue. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 4.



Figure 4. Wave counting on 120 min chart.

One of possible variants of wave counting is given in the chart. Downward movement may continue in the zigzag mode.

In the short-term perspective downtrend is expected to continue once supposed wave (x) is formed. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.


3. GBP/USD


For survey wave counting of this currency refer to Monthly-1106, Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007. Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.



Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

It is possible that mid-term reverse in favor of the dollar has already happened, wave X keeps forming in the shape of the skewed triangle. Ending of wave [d] is the critical level.

In the mid-term perspective downtrend forming is expected to continue. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 6.



Figure 6. Wave counting on 120 min chart.

One of possible variants of wave counting is given in the chart. Downward movement may continue in the zigzag mode.

In the short-term perspective downtrend is expected to continue once supposed wave (x) is formed. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.


4. USD/JPY


For survey wave counting of this currency refer to Monthly-1106, Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007. Refer to Figure 7 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.



Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

Price has been fluctuating within the horizontal channel between 117.00-118.50 for more then a week, increasing possible variants of wave counting and not giving a univocal confirmation of uptrend beginning.

In the mid-term perspective uptrend is expected to form. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 8.



Figure 8. Wave counting on 120 min chart.

One of possible variants of wave counting is given in the chart.

In the short-term perspective uptrend confirmation is expected. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.


Reference


Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
November 16, 2006
The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd
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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-19 18:11 | 显示全部楼层
Note
  • Once the opposite to the trend edge (base line or trend line) is tested any impulse or zigzag of any size may be considered to be completed. The inner wave counting of such a movement is of conventional character.
  • The error of the trend reversal points defining with the help of impulse method is about +/- 1..4 time units. Date on the weekly chart is the last day of the current week.
  • Often support and resistance levels, mentioned in the reports, are remote from the current price. In this case confirming or denying signals may be delayed. That is why in addition to the critical levels analysis inner structure analysis of the waves, moving in the same direction, should be used.
  • It should be remembered that EWA forecasts show the probable price movements. This report is subject to change and reveals the analyst opinion of the situation at the moment of its release.
  • Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides.
  • Survey wave counting, alternate variants and possible schematic price movements are given in:



1. USD/CHF


For CHF survey wave counting refer to Monthly-1106 and article Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft for this currency on 480 min chart.



Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

It is possible that mid-term reverse in favor of the dollar has already happened, wave X keeps forming in the shape of the triple three. Ending of the second wave [x] is the critical level.

In the mid-term perspective uptrend forming is expected to continue. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.


2. EUR/USD


For EUR survey wave counting refer to Monthly-1106, Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007. Refer to Figure 2 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.



Figure 2. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

It is possible that mid-term reverse in favor of the dollar has already happened, wave X keeps forming in the shape of the horizontal triangle. Ending of wave [d] is the critical level.

In the mid-term perspective downtrend forming is expected to continue. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.


3. GBP/USD


For survey wave counting of this currency refer to Monthly-1106, Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.



Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

It is possible that mid-term reverse in favor of the dollar has already happened, wave X keeps forming in the shape of the skewed triangle. Ending of wave [d] is the critical level.

In the mid-term perspective downtrend forming is expected to continue. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.


4. USD/JPY


For survey wave counting of this currency refer to Monthly-1106, Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007. Refer to Figure 4 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.



Figure 4. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

Price has been fluctuating within the horizontal channel between 117.00-118.50 for more than a week, increasing possible variants of wave counting marking and not giving a univocal confirmation of uptrend beginning.

In the mid-term perspective uptrend is expected to form. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.


Reference


Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
November 17, 2006
The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd
金币:
奖励:
热心:
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2006-7-3

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hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-19 18:13 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction

It is high time for traders, who have not opened mid-term positions in favor of the dollar (refer to Daily-131106 and Daily-141106), to open them now.

Note
  • Once the opposite to the trend edge (base line or trend line) is tested any impulse or zigzag of any size may be considered to be completed. The inner wave counting of such a movement is of conventional character.
  • The error of the trend reversal points defining with the help of impulse method is about +/- 1..4 time units. Date on the weekly chart is the last day of the current week.
  • Often support and resistance levels, mentioned in the reports, are remote from the current price. In this case confirming or denying signals may be delayed. That is why in addition to the critical levels analysis inner structure analysis of the waves, moving in the same direction, should be used.
  • It should be remembered that EWA forecasts show the probable price movements. This report is subject to change and reveals the analyst opinion of the situation at the moment of its release.
  • Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides.
  • Survey wave counting, alternate variants and possible schematic price movements are given in:



1. USD/CHF


For CHF survey wave counting refer to Monthly-1106 and article Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft for this currency on 480 min chart.



Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

It is possible that mid-term reverse in favor of the dollar has already happened, wave X keeps forming in the shape of the triple three. Ending of the second wave [x] is the critical level.

In the mid-term perspective uptrend forming is expected to continue. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 2.



Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart.

One of possible variants of wave counting is given in the chart. Uptrend may keep forming in the zigzag mode.

In the short-term plan uptrend is expected to continue. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.


2. EUR/USD


For EUR survey wave counting refer to Monthly-1106, Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.



Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

It is possible that mid-term reverse in favor of the dollar has already happened, wave X keeps forming in the shape of the horizontal triangle. Ending of wave [d] is the critical level.

In the mid-term perspective downtrend forming is expected to continue. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 4.



Figure 4. Wave counting on 120 min chart.

One of possible variants of wave counting is given in the chart. Downtrend may keep forming in the zigzag mode.

In the short-term plan downtrend is expected to continue. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.


3. GBP/USD


For survey wave counting of this currency refer to Monthly-1106, Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007. Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.



Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

It is possible that mid-term reverse in favor of the dollar has already happened, wave X keeps forming in the shape of the skewed triangle. Ending of wave [d] is the critical level.

In the mid-term perspective downtrend forming is expected to continue. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 6.



Figure 6. Wave counting on 120 min chart.

One of possible variants of wave counting is given in the chart. Downtrend may keep forming in the zigzag mode.

In the short-term plan downtrend is expected to continue. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.


4. USD/JPY


For survey wave counting of this currency refer to Monthly-1106, Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007. Refer to Figure 7 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.



Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

Price has been fluctuating within the horizontal channel between 117.00-118.50 for more than a week, increasing possible variants of wave counting marking and not giving a univocal confirmation of uptrend beginning.

In the mid-term perspective uptrend is expected to form. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 8.



Figure 8. Wave counting on 120 min chart.

One of possible variants of wave counting is given in the chart.

In the short-term plan uptrend is expected to continue. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.


Reference


Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
November 20, 2006
The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd
金币:
奖励:
热心:
注册时间:
2006-7-3

回复 使用道具 举报

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