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一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-20 11:25 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction
1). Those who have opened short-term positions in favor of the dollar (see Daily 051607) may think about their closing.
2). CHF price has approached the confirmatory level which is a serious argument in favor of the dollar strengthening which has started already. Though it will be univocal only once the price fixes in the new area.
1. EUR/USDFor EUR survey wave counting refer to Annual-07 and Monthly -0507 and article Possible perspectives of the European currencies for 2007. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on the daily chart.


Figure 1. Wave counting on the daily chart, v.1.

The price may have chosen scenario v.1 (see Monthly-0507).
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of this currency refer to Annual-07 and Monthly-0507 and article Possible perspectives of the European currencies for 2007. Refer to Figure 2 for the wave counting draft of this currency on the daily chart.

Figure 2. Wave counting on the daily chart, v.1.

The price may have chosen scenario v.1 (see Monthly-0507).
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of this currency refer to Annual-07 and Monthly-0507. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart, v.2.

The price has broken the upper forming line of the supposed wedge, confirming by implication that the pattern has been chosen correctly. I suppose the price has preferred scenario v.2 for JPY (see Monthly-0507).
4. USD/CHFFor CHF survey wave counting refer to Annual-07 and Monthly-0507 and article Possible perspectives of the European currencies for 2007. Refer to Figure 4 for the wave counting draft for this currency on the daily chart.

Figure 4. Wave counting on the daily chart, v.1.

The price may have chosen scenario v.1 (see Monthly-0507).
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference:

Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
May 18, 2007
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-20 11:26 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction
It is evident that the price prefers the scenario when the trend reverses in favor of the dollar at the end of April.
1. EUR/USDFor EUR survey wave counting refer to Annual-07 and Monthly -0507 and article Possible perspectives of the European currencies for 2007. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.


Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart, v.1.

According to this scenario wedge i or a is completed, wave ii or b is forming supposedly in the shape of the flat. If the supposition is correct till the end of the week the price will be forming wave [C] of ii, which may assume the shape of the impulse or diagonal triangle (see the next chart).

Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart, v.1.

The optimum level for the completion of wave [C] of supposed flat ii or b is at 1.36, which will correspond to 62% retracement, characteristic of the second waves.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of this currency refer to Annual-07 and Monthly-0507 and article Possible perspectives of the European currencies for 2007. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart, v.1.

According to this scenario wedge i or a is completed, wave ii or b is forming supposedly in the shape of the extended flat. If the supposition is correct till the end of the week the price will be forming wave [C] of ii, which may assume the shape of the impulse or diagonal triangle (see the next chart).

Figure 4. Wave counting on 120 min chart, v.1.

The optimum level for the completion of wave [C] of supposed extended flat ii or b is at 1.99+, which will correspond to 38-50% retracement.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of this currency refer to Annual-07 and Monthly-0507. Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart, v.2.

According to this variant upward wedge [a] or is almost completed. The price has broken the upper edge of the channel as the wedge is contracting. It is quite logic to expect downward correction or [ii] forming in the nearest future.
4. USD/CHFFor CHF survey wave counting refer to Annual-07 and Monthly-0507 and article Possible perspectives of the European currencies for 2007. Refer to Figure 6 for the wave counting draft for this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 6. Wave counting on 480 min chart, v.1.

According to this scenario wedge i or a is completed. Wave ii or b is supposed to be forming in the shape of the running flat. If the supposition is correct till the end of the week the price will be forming wave [C] of ii, which may assume the shape of the impulse or diagonal triangle (see the next chart).

Figure 7. Wave counting on 120 min chart, v.1.

The optimum level for the completion of wave [C] of supposed running flat ii or b is at 1.2150 or below, which will correspond to 25-38% retracement.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference:

Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
May 21, 2007
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-20 11:27 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction
It is evident that the price prefers the scenario when the trend reverses in favor of the dollar at the end of April (see Monthly-0507).
1. EUR/USDFor EUR survey wave counting refer to Annual-07 and Monthly -0507 and article Possible perspectives of the European currencies for 2007. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.


Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart, v.1.

According to this scenario wedge i or a is completed, wave ii or b is forming supposedly in the shape of the flat. If the supposition is correct till the end of the week the price will be forming wave [C] of ii, which may assume the shape of the impulse or diagonal triangle (see the next chart).

Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart, v.1.

Depending on the type of the flat the price will choose (extended or running), completion of wave [C] of supposed flat ii or b may be expected around 1.3550 or 1.36+.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of this currency refer to Annual-07 and Monthly-0507 and article Possible perspectives of the European currencies for 2007. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart, v.1.

According to this scenario wedge i or a is completed, wave ii or b is forming supposedly in the shape of the flat. If the supposition is correct till the end of the week the price will form wave [C] of ii, which may assume the shape of the impulse or diagonal triangle (see the next chart).

Figure 4. Wave counting on 120 min chart, v.2.

Depending on the type of the flat the price will choose (extended or running), completion of wave [C] of supposed flat ii or b may be expected around 1.9800-50 or 1.99+.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of this currency refer to Annual-07 and Monthly-0507. Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart, v.1.

According to this variant upward wedge [a] or is completed. The price has broken the upper edge of the channel as the wedge is contracting. It is quite logic to expect downward correction or [ii] will keep forming.
4. USD/CHFFor CHF survey wave counting refer to Annual-07 and Monthly-0507 and article Possible perspectives of the European currencies for 2007. Refer to Figure 6 for the wave counting draft for this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 6. Wave counting on 480 min chart, v.1.

According to this scenario wedge i or a is completed. Wave ii or b is supposed to be forming in the shape of the flat. If the supposition is correct till the end of the week the price will be forming wave [C] of ii, which may assume the shape of the impulse or diagonal triangle (see the next chart).

Figure 7. Wave counting on 120 min chart, v.1.

Depending on the type of the flat the price will choose (extended or running), completion of wave [C] of supposed flat ii or b may be expected around 1.2175 or 1.21-.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference:

Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
May 22, 2007
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-20 11:28 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction
It is evident that the price prefers the scenario when the trend reverses in favor of the dollar at the end of April (see Monthly-0507).
1. EUR/USDFor EUR survey wave counting refer to Annual-07 and Monthly -0507 and article Possible perspectives of the European currencies for 2007. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.


Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart, v.1.

According to this scenario wedge i or a is completed, wave ii or b is forming supposedly in the shape of the flat. If the supposition is correct wave [C] of ii may assume the shape of the impulse or diagonal triangle (see the next chart).

Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart, v.1.

Depending on the type of the flat the price will choose (extended or running), completion of wave [C] of supposed flat ii or b may be expected around 1.3550 or 1.36+.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of this currency refer to Annual-07 and Monthly-0507 and article Possible perspectives of the European currencies for 2007. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart, v.1.

According to this scenario wedge i or a is completed, wave ii or b is forming supposedly in the shape of the flat. If the supposition is correct wave [C] of ii may assume the shape of the impulse or diagonal triangle (see the next chart).

Figure 4. Wave counting on 120 min chart, v.1.

Depending on the type of the flat the price will choose (extended or running), completion of wave [C] of supposed flat ii or b may be expected around 1.9800-50 or 1.99+.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of this currency refer to Annual-07 and Monthly-0507. Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart, v.2.

According to this variant upward wedge [a] or is completed. The price has broken the upper edge of the channel as the wedge is contracting. It is quite logic to expect that downward correction or [ii] will keep forming.
4. USD/CHFFor CHF survey wave counting refer to Annual-07 and Monthly-0507 and article Possible perspectives of the European currencies for 2007. Refer to Figure 6 for the wave counting draft for this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 6. Wave counting on 480 min chart, v.1.

According to this scenario wedge i or a is completed. Wave ii or b is supposed to be forming in the shape of the flat. If the supposition is correct wave [C] of ii may assume the shape of the impulse or diagonal triangle (see the next chart).

Figure 7. Wave counting on 120 min chart, v.1.

Depending on the type of the flat the price will choose (extended or running), completion of wave [C] of supposed flat ii or b may be expected around 1.2175 or 1.21-.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference:

Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
May 23, 2007
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-20 11:29 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction
It is evident that the price prefers the scenario when the trend reverses in favor of the dollar at the end of April (see Monthly-0507).
1. EUR/USDFor EUR survey wave counting refer to Annual-07 and Monthly -0507 and article Possible perspectives of the European currencies for 2007. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.


Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart, v.1.

According to this scenario wave ii or b may be forming in the shape of the flat. If the supposition is correct wave [C] of ii may assume the shape of the impulse or diagonal triangle (see the next chart).

Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart, v.1.

Depending on the type of the flat the price will choose (extended or running), completion of wave [C] of supposed flat ii or b may be expected around 1.3550 or 1.36+.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of this currency refer to Annual-07 and Monthly-0507 and article Possible perspectives of the European currencies for 2007. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart, v.1.

According to this scenario wave ii or b is forming supposedly in the shape of the extended flat.

Figure 4. Wave counting on 120 min chart, v.1.

Completion of wave [C] of extended flat ii or b may be expected around 2.00.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of this currency refer to Annual-07 and Monthly-0507. Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart, v.2.

According to this variant upward wedge [a] or is completed. The price has broken the upper edge of the channel as the wedge is contracting. It is quite logic to expect that downward correction or [ii] will keep forming. The details are given on the next chart.

Figure 6. Wave counting on 120 min chart, v.2.

One of possible variants of marking of the supposed wedge [a] or ending is given in the chart. Impulse v of (v) seems to be completed.
4. USD/CHFFor CHF survey wave counting refer to Annual-07 and Monthly-0507 and article Possible perspectives of the European currencies for 2007. Refer to Figure 7 for the wave counting draft for this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart, v.1.

According to this scenario wave ii or b is supposed to be forming in the shape of the flat. If the supposition is correct wave [C] of ii may assume the shape of the impulse or diagonal triangle (see the next chart).

Figure 8. Wave counting on 120 min chart, v.1.

Depending on the type of the flat the price will choose (extended or running), completion of wave [C] of supposed flat ii or b may be expected around 1.2175 or 1.21-.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference:

Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
May 24, 2007
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari Ltd. is obligatory
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-20 11:29 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction
It is evident that the price prefers the scenario when the trend reverses in favor of the dollar at the end of April (see Monthly-0507).
1. EUR/USDFor EUR survey wave counting refer to Annual-07 and Monthly -0507 and article Possible perspectives of the European currencies for 2007. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.


Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart, v.1.

According to this scenario wave ii or b may be forming in the shape of the flat. If the supposition is correct wave [C] of ii may assume the shape of the impulse or diagonal triangle (see the next chart).

Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart, v.1.

Depending on the type of the flat the price will choose (extended or running), completion of wave [C] of supposed flat ii or b may be expected around 1.3550 or 1.36+.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of this currency refer to Annual-07 and Monthly-0507 and article Possible perspectives of the European currencies for 2007. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart, v.1.

According to this scenario wave ii or b is forming supposedly in the shape of the extended flat.

Figure 4. Wave counting on 120 min chart, v.1.

Completion of wave [C] of extended flat ii or b may be expected around 2.00.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of this currency refer to Annual-07 and Monthly-0507. Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart, v.2.

According to this variant upward wedge [a] or is completed. Downward correction or [ii] keeps forming. The details are given on the next chart.

Figure 6. Wave counting on 120 min chart, v.2.

One of possible variants of marking of the supposed wedge [a] or ending is given in the chart. Impulse v of (v) seems to be completed.
4. USD/CHFFor CHF survey wave counting refer to Annual-07 and Monthly-0507 and article Possible perspectives of the European currencies for 2007. Refer to Figure 7 for the wave counting draft for this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart, v.1.

According to this scenario wave ii or b is supposed to be forming in the shape of the flat. If the supposition is correct wave [C] of ii may assume the shape of the impulse or diagonal triangle (see the next chart).

Figure 8. Wave counting on 120 min chart, v.1.

Depending on the type of the flat the price will choose (extended or running), completion of wave [C] of supposed flat ii or b may be expected around 1.2175 or 1.21-.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference:

Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
May 25, 2007
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari Ltd. is obligatory
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-20 11:31 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction
It is evident that the price prefers the scenario when the trend reverses in favor of the dollar at the end of April (see Monthly-0507). Though the price does not confirm it and it is balancing on the brink of the extreme waves correlations.
1. EUR/USDFor EUR survey wave counting refer to Annual-07 and Monthly -0507 and article Possible perspectives of the European currencies for 2007. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.


Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart, v.1.

According to this scenario wave ii or b may be forming in the shape of the flat. If the supposition is correct wave [C] of ii may assume the shape of the impulse or diagonal triangle.
Depending on the type of the flat the price will choose (extended or running), completion of wave [C] of supposed flat ii or b may be expected around 1.3550 or 1.36+.
Price fixing above the upper edge of the channel of wave [B] of ii will confirm this scenario.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of this currency refer to Annual-07 and Monthly-0507 and article Possible perspectives of the European currencies for 2007. Refer to Figure 2 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 2. Wave counting on 480 min chart, v.1.

According to this scenario wave ii or b is forming supposedly in the shape of the extended flat.
Completion of wave [C] of extended flat ii or b may be expected around 2.00.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of this currency refer to Annual-07 and Monthly-0507. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart, v.2.

According to this variant supposed upward wedge [a] or is completed, though it is nor confirmed yet.
4. USD/CHFFor CHF survey wave counting refer to Annual-07 and Monthly-0507 and article Possible perspectives of the European currencies for 2007. Refer to Figure 4 for the wave counting draft for this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 4. Wave counting on 480 min chart, v.1.

According to this scenario wave ii or b is supposed to be forming in the shape of the flat. If the supposition is correct wave [C] of ii may assume the shape of the impulse or diagonal triangle.
Depending on the type of the flat the price will choose (extended or running), completion of wave [C] of supposed flat ii or b may be expected around 1.2150 or 1.21-.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference:

Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
May 28, 2007
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari Ltd. is obligatory
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-20 11:33 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction
The price may prefer the scenario when the trend reverses in favor of the dollar at the end of April (see Monthly-0507). Though the price does not confirm it and it is balancing on the brink of the extreme waves correlations.
Yesterday’s holidays in the USA, Great Britain and Switzerland decreased activity of the FOREX market participants significantly and the wave picture of the pairs under consideration has remained almost unchanged.
1. EUR/USDFor EUR survey wave counting refer to Annual-07 and Monthly -0507 and article Possible perspectives of the European currencies for 2007. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.


Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart, v.1.

According to this scenario wave ii or b may be forming in the shape of the flat. If the supposition is correct wave [C] of ii may assume the shape of the impulse or diagonal triangle.
Depending on the type of the flat the price will choose (extended or running), completion of wave [C] of supposed flat ii or b may be expected around 1.3550 or 1.36+.
Price fixing above the upper edge of the channel of wave [B] of ii will confirm this scenario.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of this currency refer to Annual-07 and Monthly-0507 and article Possible perspectives of the European currencies for 2007. Refer to Figure 2 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 2. Wave counting on 480 min chart, v.1.

According to this variant wave ii or b is forming supposedly in the shape of the extended flat.
Completion of wave [C] of the extended flat ii or b may be expected around 2.00.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of this currency refer to Annual-07 and Monthly-0507. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart, v.2.

According to this variant supposed upward wedge [a] or is completed, though it is nor confirmed yet.
4. USD/CHFFor CHF survey wave counting refer to Annual-07 and Monthly-0507 and article Possible perspectives of the European currencies for 2007. Refer to Figure 4 for the wave counting draft for this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 4. Wave counting on 480 min chart, v.1.

According to this scenario wave ii or b is supposed to be forming in the shape of the flat. If the supposition is correct wave [C] of ii may assume the shape of the impulse or diagonal triangle.
Depending on the type of the flat the price will choose (extended or running), completion of wave [C] of supposed flat ii or b may be expected around 1.2150 or 1.21-.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference:

Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
May 29, 2007
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari Ltd. is obligatory
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-20 11:35 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction
According to the current wave picture local correction ii or a may be already completed for the European currencies and a new stage of the dollar strengthening, wave iii or c, has started.
If the supposition is correct the expected movement may be very powerful and profitable. That is why it is reasonable to change short-term positions against the dollar (see Daily-220507) for mid-term positions in favor of the dollar.
1. EUR/USDFor EUR survey wave counting refer to Annual-07 and Monthly -0507 and article Possible perspectives of the European currencies for 2007. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.


Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart, v.1.

According to scenario v.1 wave ii or b is completed, having assumed the shape of the double three. Ending of wave ii or b is the critical level for this variant.

Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart, v.1.

Wave ii or b ending is not confirmed yet, though it is quite possible.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of this currency refer to Annual-07 and Monthly-0507 and article Possible perspectives of the European currencies for 2007. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart, v.1.

According to scenario v.1 wave ii or b is completed, having assumed the shape of the extended flat. Ending of wave ii or b is the critical level for this variant.

Figure 4. Wave counting on 120 min chart, v.1.

Wave ii or b ending is not confirmed yet, though the wave picture signals in favor of this variant.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of this currency refer to Annual-07 and Monthly-0507. Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart, v.2.

As JPY does not form a proportional and clear-cut correction alternate variant is still probable. According to this scenario wave 3 of the diagonal triangle is assuming the shape of the narrow double/triple zigzag. Further upward movement in the narrow trend channel will confirm the alternative.
4. USD/CHFFor CHF survey wave counting refer to Annual-07 and Monthly-0507 and article Possible perspectives of the European currencies for 2007. Refer to Figure 6 for the wave counting draft for this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 6. Wave counting on 480 min chart, v.1.

According to scenario v.1 wave ii or b is completed, having assumed the shape of the running flat. Wave ii or b ending is the critical level for this variant.

Figure 7. Wave counting on 120 min chart, v.1.

Wave ii or b ending is not confirmed yet, though according to the wave picture it is possible.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference:

Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
May 30, 2007
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari Ltd. is obligatory
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-20 11:36 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction
According to the current wave picture local correction ii or a may be already completed for the European currencies and a new stage of the dollar strengthening, wave iii or c, has started. If the supposition is correct the expected movement may be very powerful and profitable.
1. EUR/USDFor EUR survey wave counting refer to Annual-07 and Monthly -0507 and article Possible perspectives of the European currencies for 2007. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.


Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart, v.1.

According to scenario v.1 wave ii or b is completed, having assumed the shape of the double three. Ending of wave ii or b is the critical level for this variant.

Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart, v.1.

Wave ii or b ending is not confirmed yet, though it is quite possible.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of this currency refer to Annual-07 and Monthly-0507 and article Possible perspectives of the European currencies for 2007. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart, v.1.

According to scenario v.1 wave ii or b is completed, having assumed the shape of the extended flat. Ending of wave ii or b is the critical level for this variant.

Figure 4. Wave counting on 120 min chart, v.1.

Wave ii or b ending is not confirmed yet, though the wave picture signals in favor of this variant.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of this currency refer to Annual-07 and Monthly-0507. Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart, v.2.

As JPY does not form a proportional and clear-cut downward correction alternate variant is still probable. According to this scenario wave 3 of the diagonal triangle is assuming the shape of the narrow double/triple zigzag. Further upward movement in the narrow trend channel will confirm the alternative.

Figure 6. Wave counting on 120 min chart, v.2.

If the supposition is correct after 9-wave triangle (iv), which wave e of (iv) is also a triangle, upward price thrust will follow. This thrust will be equal at least the height of triangle (iv). Crossing of the upper boarders of the channels is also projected around 122.50.
4. USD/CHFFor CHF survey wave counting refer to Annual-07 and Monthly-0507 and article Possible perspectives of the European currencies for 2007. Refer to Figure 7 for the wave counting draft for this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart, v.1.

According to scenario v.1 wave ii or b is completed, having assumed the shape of the running flat. Wave ii or b ending is the critical level for this variant.

Figure 8. Wave counting on 120 min chart, v.1.

Wave ii or b ending is not confirmed yet, though according to the wave picture it is possible.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference:

Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
May 31, 2007
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari Ltd. is obligatory
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-20 11:37 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction
In the yesterday's article Check Point, Intermediate Results and Nearest Perspectives one of possible scenarios of price movement up to the end of 2007 has been considered.
1. EUR/USDFor EUR survey wave counting refer to Annual-07 and Monthly -0507 and article Possible perspectives of the European currencies for 2007. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.


Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart, v.1.

According to scenario v.1 wave ii or b is completed, having assumed the shape of the double three. Ending of wave ii or b is the critical level for this variant.

Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart, v.1.

Wave ii or b ending has not been confirmed yet, though it is quite possible according to the wave picture.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of this currency refer to Annual-07 and Monthly-0507 and article Possible perspectives of the European currencies for 2007. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart, v.1.

According to scenario v.1 wave ii or b is completed, having assumed the shape of the extended flat. Ending of wave ii or b is the critical level for this variant.

Figure 4. Wave counting on 120 min chart, v.1.

Wave ii or b ending is not confirmed yet, though the wave picture signals in favor of this variant.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of this currency refer to Annual-07 and Monthly-0507. Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart, v.2.

As JPY does not form a proportional and clear-cut downward correction alternate variant is still probable. According to this scenario wave 3 of the diagonal triangle is assuming the shape of the narrow double/triple zigzag. Further upward movement in the narrow trend channel will confirm the alternative.

Figure 6. Wave counting on 120 min chart, v.2.

Price upward thrust followed triangle (iv). It may be equal the height of triangle (iv). Crossing of the upper edges of the channels is also projected around 122.50.
4. USD/CHFFor CHF survey wave counting refer to Annual-07 and Monthly-0507 and article Possible perspectives of the European currencies for 2007. Refer to Figure 7 for the wave counting draft for this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart, v.1.

According to scenario v.1 wave ii or b is completed, having assumed the shape of the running flat. Wave ii or b ending is the critical level for this variant.

Figure 8. Wave counting on 120 min chart, v.2.

Wave ii or b ending is not confirmed yet, though according to the wave picture it is possible.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference:

Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
June 1, 2007
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari Ltd. is obligatory.
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-20 11:38 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction
The survey wave counting adjusted on the basis of the last changes in the FOREX market and forecasts for June are given in Monthly-0607. Local correction is supposed to be forming. That is why open positions in favor of the dollar (see Daily-300507 and Daily-310507) should be better closed till supposed wave (b) of [w] of W of (c) ends.
1. EUR/USDFor EUR survey wave counting refer to Annual-07, Monthly-0607 and article Check Point, Intermediate Results and Nearest Perspectives. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.


Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

According to the main scenario wave (b) is forming. It is assuming the shape of the flat or double three. If the supposition is correct wave c of (b) will be forming till the end of the week with the projected value around 1.35.
Wave (B) ending is the critical level for this variant.

Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart.

Two zigzags a of (b) and b of (b) of supposed flat (b) have been already completed. It is quite logic to expect that upward wave c of (b) will assume the shape of the impulse or diagonal triangle.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of this currency refer to Annual-07, Monthly-0607 and article Check Point, Intermediate Results and Nearest Perspectives. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

According to the main scenario wave (b) is forming. It is assuming the shape of the zigzag. If the supposition is correct wave c of (b) will be forming till the end of the week with the projected value around 2.00.
Wave (B) ending is the critical level for this variant.

Figure 4. Wave counting on 120 min chart.

Wave a of (b) has assumed the shape of the impulse. It is quite logic to expect that upward wave c of (b) will assume the shape of the impulse or diagonal triangle.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of this currency refer to Annual-07, Monthly-0607 and article Check Point, Intermediate Results and Nearest Perspectives. Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

According to this scenario wave 3 of the diagonal triangle is assuming the shape of the narrow double/triple zigzag. It will be confirmed by further upward movement in the narrow trend channel.

Figure 6. Wave counting on 120 min chart.

Price upward thrust followed triangle (iv). It may be equal the height of triangle (iv). Crossing of the upper edges of the channels is also projected around 122.50.
4. USD/CHFFor CHF survey wave counting refer to Annual-07, Monthly-0607 and article Check Point, Intermediate Results and Nearest Perspectives. Refer to Figure 7 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

According to the main scenario wave (b) is forming. It is assuming the shape of the flat or double three. If the supposition is correct wave c of (b) will be forming till the end of the week with the projected value around 1.22.
Wave (B) ending is the critical level for this variant.

Figure 8. Wave counting on 120 min chart.

Two zigzags a of (b) and b of (b) of supposed flat (b) have been already completed. It is quite logic to expect that downward wave c of (b) will assume the shape of the impulse or diagonal triangle.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference:

Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
June 4, 2007
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari Ltd. is obligatory
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-20 11:40 | 显示全部楼层
1. EUR/USDFor EUR survey wave counting refer to Annual-07, Monthly-0607 and article Check Point, Intermediate Results and Nearest Perspectives. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.


Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

According to the main scenario wave (b) is forming. It is assuming the shape of the flat or double three. If the supposition is correct wave c of (b) may reach 1.3550.
Wave (B) ending is the critical level for this variant.

Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart.

Wave c of (b) is supposed to be assuming the shape of the impulse, the flat follows the flat alternation guidelines — Complex-MostComplex-Simple (see table 4-2 of my book).
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of this currency refer to Annual-07, Monthly-0607 and article Check Point, Intermediate Results and Nearest Perspectives. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

According to the main scenario correction (b) is forming. It is assuming the shape of the zigzag. If the supposition is correct wave c of (b) may reach 2.00.
Wave (B) ending is the critical level for this variant.

Figure 4. Wave counting on 120 min chart.

Wave c of zigzag (b) is assuming the shape of the impulse. It is quite logic to suppose that the legs of the zigzag in accordance with the fibo correlation 0.78-1.27 will be almost equal.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of this currency refer to Annual-07, Monthly-0607 and article Check Point, Intermediate Results and Nearest Perspectives. Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

According to this scenario wave 3 of the diagonal triangle is assuming the shape of the narrow double/triple zigzag. It will be confirmed by further upward movement in the narrow trend channel.

Figure 6. Wave counting on 120 min chart.

In the chart two possible variants of the wave counting marking of this part is given. The depth of the forming correction may suppose which scenario the price will choose.
4. USD/CHFFor CHF survey wave counting refer to Annual-07, Monthly-0607 and article Check Point, Intermediate Results and Nearest Perspectives. Refer to Figure 7 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

According to the main scenario correction (b) is forming. It is assuming the shape of the flat. If the supposition is correct wave c of (b) may reach 1.22-.
Wave (B) ending is the critical level for this variant.

Figure 8. Wave counting on 120 min chart.

Wave c of (b) is supposed to be assuming the shape of the impulse, the flat follows the flat alternation guidelines — MostComplex-Complex-Simple (see table 4-2 of my book).
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference:

Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
June 5, 2007
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari Ltd. is obligatory
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-20 11:41 | 显示全部楼层
1. EUR/USDFor EUR survey wave counting refer to Annual-07, Monthly-0607 and article Check Point, Intermediate Results and Nearest Perspectives. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.


Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

According to the main scenario correction (b) is almost completed. It is assuming the shape of the extended flat. Price has reached the projected value at 1.3550.
Wave (B) ending is the critical level for this variant.

Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart.

Wave c of (b) is supposed to be assuming the shape of the impulse, the flat follows the flat alternation guidelines — Complex-MostComplex-Simple (see table 4-2 of my book). Several final waves of impulse c of (b) must form to complete correction (b).
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of this currency refer to Annual-07, Monthly-0607 and article Check Point, Intermediate Results and Nearest Perspectives. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

According to the main scenario correction (b) is almost completed. It is assuming the shape of the zigzag with its legs almost equal by length. If the supposition is correct wave c of (b) may reach 2.00.
Wave (B) ending is the critical level for this variant.

Figure 4. Wave counting on 120 min chart.

Wave c of zigzag (b) is assuming the shape of the impulse. Several final legs must form for the impulse to be completed. It is quite logic to suppose that the legs of the zigzag will be almost equal in accordance with the fibo correlation 0.78-1.27.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of this currency refer to Annual-07, Monthly-0607 and article Check Point, Intermediate Results and Nearest Perspectives. Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

According to this scenario wave 3 of the diagonal triangle is assuming the shape of the narrow double/triple zigzag. It will be confirmed by further upward movement in the narrow trend channel.

Figure 6. Wave counting on 120 min chart.

In the chart two possible variants of wave counting marking of this part is given. The sixth wave of correction [vi] is supposed to be forming in the shape of the zigzag. It is quite logic to suppose that the legs of the zigzag will be almost equal in accordance with the fibo correlation 0.78-1.27.
4. USD/CHFFor CHF survey wave counting refer to Annual-07, Monthly-0607 and article Check Point, Intermediate Results and Nearest Perspectives. Refer to Figure 7 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

According to the main scenario correction (b) is almost completed. It is assuming the shape of the flat. Price has reached the projected value at .22-.
Wave (B) ending is the critical level for this variant.

Figure 8. Wave counting on 120 min chart.

Wave c of (b) is supposed to be assuming the shape of the impulse, the flat follows the flat alternation guidelines — MostComplex-Complex-Simple (see table 4-2 of my book). Several final waves of impulse c of (b) must form to complete correction (b).
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference:

Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
June 6, 2007
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari Ltd. is obligatory
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-20 12:35 | 显示全部楼层
1. EUR/USDFor EUR survey wave counting refer to Annual-07, Monthly-0607 and article Check Point, Intermediate Results and Nearest Perspectives. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.


Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

According to the main scenario correction (b) is almost completed. It is assuming the shape of the extended flat. Price has reached the projected value at 1.3550.
Wave (B) ending is the critical level for this variant.

Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart.

Wave c of (b) is supposed to be assuming the shape of the impulse, the flat follows the flat alternation guidelines — Complex-MostComplex-Simple (see table 4-2 of my book). Final wave [5] of impulse c of (b) must form to complete correction (b).
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of this currency refer to Annual-07, Monthly-0607 and article Check Point, Intermediate Results and Nearest Perspectives. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

According to the main scenario correction (b) is almost completed. It is assuming the shape of the zigzag with its legs almost equal by length. If the supposition is correct wave c of (b) may reach 2.00.
Wave (B) ending is the critical level for this variant.

Figure 4. Wave counting on 120 min chart.

Wave c of zigzag (b) is assuming the shape of the impulse. Final wave [5] of impulse c of (b) must form for the impulse to be completed. It is quite logic to suppose that the legs of the zigzag will be almost equal in accordance with the fibo correlation 0.78-1.27.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of this currency refer to Annual-07, Monthly-0607 and article Check Point, Intermediate Results and Nearest Perspectives. Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

According to this scenario wave 3 of the diagonal triangle is assuming the shape of the narrow double/triple zigzag. It will be confirmed by further upward movement in the narrow trend channel.

Figure 6. Wave counting on 120 min chart.

In the chart two possible variants of wave counting marking of this part is given. The sixth wave of correction [vi] is supposed to be forming in the shape of the zigzag. It is quite logic to suppose that the legs of the zigzag will be almost equal in accordance with the fibo correlation 0.78-1.27.
4. USD/CHFFor CHF survey wave counting refer to Annual-07, Monthly-0607 and article Check Point, Intermediate Results and Nearest Perspectives. Refer to Figure 7 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

According to the main scenario correction (b) is almost completed. It is assuming the shape of the flat. Price has reached the projected value at 1.22-.
Wave (B) ending is the critical level for this variant.

Figure 8. Wave counting on 120 min chart.

Wave c of (b) is supposed to be assuming the shape of the impulse, the flat follows the flat alternation guidelines — MostComplex-Complex-Simple (see table 4-2 of my book). Final wave [5] of impulse c of (b) must form to complete correction (b).
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference:

Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
June 7, 2007
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari Ltd. is obligatory
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-20 12:36 | 显示全部楼层
1. EUR/USDFor EUR survey wave counting refer to Annual-07, Monthly-0607 and article Check Point, Intermediate Results and Nearest Perspectives. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.


Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

According to the main scenario correction (b) has completed. It has assumed the shape of the extended flat. The wave pattern follows the flat alternation guidelines — Complex-MostComplex-Simple (see table 4-2 of my book). 54% depth of correction is the optimum one for zigzags of the higher wave degree. Price has reached the projected value at 1.3550. Waves (B) and (b) of [w] endings are the critical levels for this variant.
If the supposition is correct USD progressive strengthening may be expected by the end of June (see Monthly-0607).
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of this currency refer to Annual-07, Monthly-0607 and article Check Point, Intermediate Results and Nearest Perspectives. Refer to Figure 2 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 2. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

According to the main scenario correction (b) has completed. It has assumed the shape of the zigzag with legs almost equal by length. 64% depth of correction is almost the optimum one for zigzags of a higher wave degree. Waves (B) and (b) of [w] endings are the critical levels for this variant.
If the supposition is correct USD progressive strengthening may be expected by the end of June (see Monthly-0607).
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of this currency refer to Annual-07, Monthly-0607 and article Check Point, Intermediate Results and Nearest Perspectives. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

According to this scenario wave 3 of the diagonal triangle is assuming the shape of the narrow double/triple zigzag. It will be confirmed by further upward movement in the narrow trend channel.
RSI has formed a divergence with price on its resistance level which is an additional argument in favor of the accepted scenario.
If the supposition is correct USD progressive strengthening may be expected by the end of June (see Monthly-0607).
4. USD/CHFFor CHF survey wave counting refer to Annual-07, Monthly-0607 and article Check Point, Intermediate Results and Nearest Perspectives. Refer to Figure 4 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 4. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

According to the main scenario correction (b) has completed. It has assumed the shape of the flat. The wave pattern follows the flat alternation guidelines — MostComplex-Complex-Simple (see table 4-2 of my book). 54% depth of correction is the optimum one for zigzags of the higher wave degree. Price has reached the projected value at 1.22-. Waves (B) and (b) of [w] endings are the critical levels for this variant.
If the supposition is correct USD progressive strengthening may be expected by the end of June (see Monthly-0607).
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference:

Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
June 8, 2007
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari Ltd. is obligatory
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-20 12:36 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction
Ambiguous wave picture is observed at the moment. On the one hand USD may keep strengthening up to the projected values (the main variant). On the other hand from the end of April the European currencies have formed the pattern which may be treated as a completed zigzag (alternate variant).
1. EUR/USDFor EUR survey wave counting refer to Annual-07, Monthly-0607 and article Check Point, Intermediate Results and Nearest Perspectives. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.


Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

The second leg (c) of zigzag [w] is supposed to be forming. 1.3250, 1.3050 and 1.29 are the optimum levels for its completion. Waves (B) and (b) of [w] endings are the critical levels for this variant.
If the supposition is correct USD progressive strengthening may be expected by the end of June (see Monthly-0607).
Wave i of (c) has assumed the shape of the impetuous impulse. If this dynamics remains valid corrections inside impulse (c) will not be deep and long. That is why the price falling may continue in the nearest future.
According to the alternate scenario ending of zigzag [xx] is forming. If this variant is confirmed upward wave [z] of Y of (B) will start forming in the nearest future.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of this currency refer to Annual-07, Monthly-0607 and article Check Point, Intermediate Results and Nearest Perspectives. Refer to Figure 2 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 2. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

The second leg (c) of zigzag [w] is supposed to be forming. 1.96- and 1.92 are the optimum levels for its completion. Waves (B) and (b) of [w] endings are the critical levels for this variant.
If the supposition is correct USD progressive strengthening may be expected by the end of June (see Monthly-0607).
Wave i of (c) has assumed the shape of the impetuous impulse. If this dynamics remains valid corrections inside impulse (c) will not be deep and long. That is why the price falling may continue in the nearest future.
According to the alternate scenario ending of zigzag [xx] has formed. If this variant is confirmed upward wave [z] of Y of (B) is forming.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of this currency refer to Annual-07, Monthly-0607 and article Check Point, Intermediate Results and Nearest Perspectives. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

According to this scenario wave 3 of the diagonal triangle is assuming the shape of the narrow double/triple zigzag. It will be confirmed by further upward movement in the narrow trend channel.
If the supposition is correct USD progressive strengthening may be expected by the end of June (see Monthly-0607).
In the picture several possible variants of this area marking is given. The sixth wave of correction [vi] is supposed to be completed in the shape of the double zigzag. If the supposition is correct the price should not break the critical level (wave [vi] ending).
According to the alternate scenario wave [v] ending may be forming now.
4. USD/CHFFor CHF survey wave counting refer to Annual-07, Monthly-0607 and article Check Point, Intermediate Results and Nearest Perspectives. Refer to Figure 4 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 4. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

The second leg (c) of zigzag [w] is supposed to be forming. 1.24, 1.2550 and 1.28 are the optimum levels for its completion. Waves (B) and (b) of [w] endings are the critical levels for this variant.
If the supposition is correct USD progressive strengthening may be expected by the end of June (see Monthly-0607).
Wave i of (c) has assumed the shape of the impetuous impulse. If this dynamics remains valid corrections inside impulse (c) will not be deep and long. That is why the price rise may continue in the nearest future.
According to the alternate scenario the final high of the horizontal triangle [X] is forming (see the next chart). If this variant is confirmed downward wave Y of (B) will start forming in the nearest future.

Figure 5. Wave counting on weekly chart.

This alternate variant has been considered before. Let's wait until the price chooses one of the variants.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference:

Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
June 13, 2007
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari Ltd. is obligatory
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-20 12:37 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction
Ambiguous wave picture is observed at the moment. On the one hand USD may keep strengthening up to the projected values (the main variant). On the other hand from the end of April the European currencies have formed the pattern which may be treated as a completed zigzag (alternate variant).
If the alternate variant is confirmed new zigzag USD falling is in store for us. Such scenarios have been described before in Wave Analysis.
1. EUR/USDFor EUR survey wave counting refer to Annual-07, Monthly-0607 and article Check Point, Intermediate Results and Nearest Perspectives. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.


Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

The second leg (c) of zigzag [w] is supposed to be forming. 1.3250, 1.3050 and 1.29 are the optimum levels for its completion. Waves (B) and (b) of [w] endings are the critical levels for this variant.
If the supposition is correct USD progressive strengthening may be expected by the end of June (see Monthly-0607).
Wave i of (c) has assumed the shape of the impetuous impulse. If this dynamics remains valid corrections inside impulse (c) will not be deep and long. That is why the price falling may continue in the nearest future.
According to the alternate scenario ending of zigzag [xx] is forming. If this variant is confirmed upward wave [z] of Y of (B) will start forming in the nearest future.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of this currency refer to Annual-07, Monthly-0607 and article Check Point, Intermediate Results and Nearest Perspectives. Refer to Figure 2 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 2. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

The second leg (c) of zigzag [w] is supposed to be forming. 1.96- and 1.92 are the optimum levels for its completion. Waves (B) and (b) of [w] endings are the critical levels for this variant.
If the supposition is correct USD progressive strengthening may be expected by the end of June (see Monthly-0607).
Wave i of (c) has assumed the shape of the impetuous impulse. If this dynamics remains valid corrections inside impulse (c) will not be deep and long. That is why the price falling may continue in the nearest future.
According to the alternate scenario ending of zigzag [xx] has formed. If this variant is confirmed upward wave [z] of Y of (B) is forming.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of this currency refer to Annual-07, Monthly-0607 and article Check Point, Intermediate Results and Nearest Perspectives. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

According to this scenario wave 3 of the diagonal triangle is assuming the shape of the narrow double/triple zigzag. It will be confirmed by further upward movement in the narrow trend channel.
If the supposition is correct USD progressive strengthening may be expected by the end of June (see Monthly-0607).
In the picture several possible variants of this area marking is given. The sixth wave of correction [vi] is supposed to be completed in the shape of the double zigzag. If the supposition is correct the price should not break the critical level (wave [vi] ending).
According to the alternate scenario wave [v] ending may be forming now.
4. USD/CHFFor CHF survey wave counting refer to Annual-07, Monthly-0607 and article Check Point, Intermediate Results and Nearest Perspectives. Refer to Figure 4 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 4. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

The second leg (c) of zigzag [w] is supposed to be forming. 1.2550 and 1.28 are the optimum levels for its completion. Waves (B) and (b) of [w] endings are the critical levels for this variant.
If the supposition is correct USD progressive strengthening may be expected by the end of June (see Monthly-0607).
Wave i of (c) has assumed the shape of the impetuous impulse. If this dynamics remains valid corrections inside impulse (c) will not be deep and long. That is why the price rise may continue in the nearest future.
According to the alternate scenario the final high of the horizontal triangle [X] is forming (see Figure 5 in Daily-130607). If this variant is confirmed downward wave Y of (B) will start forming in the nearest future.
5. EUR/JPYIn article Never-ending Ascension (EUR/JPY) possible variants of wave counting marking and nearest perspectives of EUR/JPY movement are considered. The pair is moving in accordance with the forecast, several variants of the adjusted marking are given here.

Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

Supposedly wave iv of (iii) has assumed the shape of the modest zigzag whereas corrective wave structures which were assigned to it turned out to be contracting diagonal triangle v of (iii) which completes impulse (iii) of [v] of 3. Having broken slightly the upper forming line of the diagonal triangle the price fell confirming this pattern by implication.
Currently corrective wave (iv) of [v] of 3 is forming. It has already fulfilled the minimum requirements for the fourth waves of the impulse:
  • it has reached the area of the previous fourth wave of a lower wave degree iv of (iii),
  • it reached the lower edge of the trend channel,
  • the depth of the retracement reached 24.6%,
  • MACD 5-34-5 oscillator is in the negative area.
That is why it is possible that it has completed already. Though the wave structure of wave (iv) of [v] of 3 supposes its further development (may be in the shape of zigzag a-b-c), the beginning of the diagonal triangle may be reached. Projected targets for the final wave (v) of [v] of 3 should be adjusted only once the fourth wave (iv) is completed. If we suppose that this four (iv) has completed then new projections are in the already calculated value area.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference:

Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
June 14, 2007
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari Ltd. is obligatory
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-20 12:38 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction
Zigzag in favor of the dollar is almost completed for the European currencies. This zigzag is a vivid confirmation of the alternation principle of zigzags (see p. 139-140 of my book). Moreover, its ending is another bifurcation point. On the one hand USD may keep strengthening. On the other hand completed zigzag may turn out to be a launching platform for the new zigzag USD weakening. Such scenarios were described before in Wave Analysis.
1. EUR/USDFor EUR survey wave counting refer to Annual-07, Monthly-0607 and article Check Point, Intermediate Results and Nearest Perspectives. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.


Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

The second leg (c) of zigzag [w] is supposed to be forming. 1.3250, 1.3050 and 1.29 are the optimum levels for its completion. Waves (B) and (b) of [w] endings are the critical levels for this variant.
According to the alternate scenario ending of zigzag [xx] is forming. If this variant is confirmed upward wave [z] of Y of (B) will start forming in the nearest future.

Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart.

Supposedly, the final wave v is required for impulse (c) to be completed.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of this currency refer to Annual-07, Monthly-0607 and article Check Point, Intermediate Results and Nearest Perspectives. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

The second leg (c) of zigzag [w] is supposed to be forming. 1.96- and 1.92 are the optimum levels for its completion. Waves (B) and (b) of [w] endings are the critical levels for this variant.
According to the alternate scenario ending of zigzag [xx] has formed. If this variant is confirmed upward wave [z] of Y of (B) is forming.

Figure 4. Wave counting on 120 min chart.

Supposedly, the final wave [5] of diagonal triangle v is required for impulse (c) to be completed.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of this currency refer to Annual-07, Monthly-0607 and article Check Point, Intermediate Results and Nearest Perspectives. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

According to this scenario wave 3 of the diagonal triangle is assuming the shape of the narrow double/triple zigzag. It will be confirmed by further upward price movement in the narrow trend channel.
If the supposition is correct USD progressive strengthening may be expected by the end of June (see Monthly-0607).
In the picture several possible variants of this area marking are given. The sixth wave of correction [vi] is supposed to be completed in the shape of the double zigzag. If the supposition is correct the price should not break the critical level (wave [vi] ending).
According to the alternate scenario wave [v] ending may be forming now.

Figure 6. Wave counting on 120 min chart.

Supposedly, the final wave (v) is required for impulse [vii] to be completed.
4. USD/CHFFor CHF survey wave counting refer to Annual-07, Monthly-0607 and article Check Point, Intermediate Results and Nearest Perspectives. Refer to Figure 4 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

The second leg (c) of zigzag [w] is supposed to be forming. 1.2550 and 1.28 are the optimum levels for its completion. Waves (B) and (b) of [w] endings are the critical levels for this variant.
According to the alternate scenario the final high of the horizontal triangle [X] is forming (see Figure 5 in Daily-130607). If this variant is confirmed downward wave Y of (B) will start forming in the nearest future.

Figure 8. Wave counting on 120 min chart.

Supposedly, the final wave v is required for impulse (c) to be completed.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference:

Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
June 15, 2007
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari Ltd. is obligatory
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-20 12:39 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction
For the European currencies completed zigzag in favor of the dollar may turn out to be a launching platform for the new zigzag USD weakening. Such scenarios were described before in Wave Analysis .
1. EUR/USDFor EUR survey wave counting refer to Annual-07, Monthly-0607 and article Check Point, Intermediate Results and Nearest Perspectives. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.


Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

The second leg (c) of zigzag [w] is supposed to be forming. 1.3050 and 1.29 are the optimum levels for its completion. If the supposition is correct impetuous and profitable wave iii of (c) may be expected in the nearest future. Waves (B) and (b) of [w] endings are the critical levels for this variant.
According to the alternate scenario ending of zigzag [xx] has been formed. If this variant is confirmed upward wave [z] of Y of (B) will keep forming in the nearest future.

Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart.

Supposedly, wave ii of (c) is almost completed in the shape of the zigzag.
2. GBP/USDFor survey wave counting of this currency refer to Annual-07, Monthly-0607 and article Check Point, Intermediate Results and Nearest Perspectives. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

The second leg (c) of zigzag [w] is supposed to be forming. 1.92 is the optimum levels for its completion. If the supposition is correct impetuous and profitable wave iii of (c) may be expected in the nearest future. Waves (B) and (b) of [w] endings are the critical levels for this variant.
According to the alternate scenario ending of zigzag [xx] has been formed. If this variant is confirmed upward wave [z] of Y of (B) will keep forming in the nearest future.

Figure 4. Wave counting on 120 min chart.

Supposedly, wave ii of (c) is almost completed in the shape of the zigzag.
3. USD/JPYFor survey wave counting of this currency refer to Annual-07, Monthly-0607 and article Check Point, Intermediate Results and Nearest Perspectives. Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

According to this scenario wave 3 of the diagonal triangle is assuming the shape of the narrow double/triple zigzag. It will be confirmed by further upward price movement in the narrow trend channel.
If the supposition is correct USD progressive strengthening may be expected by the end of June. A possible variant of this area marking is given in the picture.

Figure 6. Wave counting on 120 min chart.

Supposedly, final waves (iv) и (v) are required for impulse [vii] to be completed.
4. USD/CHFFor CHF survey wave counting refer to Annual-07, Monthly-0607 and article Check Point, Intermediate Results and Nearest Perspectives. Refer to Figure 7 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.

Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

The second leg (c) of zigzag [w] is supposed to be forming. If the supposition is correct impetuous and profitable wave iii of (c) may be expected in the nearest future. 1.28 is the optimum levels for its completion. Waves (B) and (b) of [w] endings are the critical levels for this variant.
According to the alternate scenario the final high of the horizontal triangle [X] is forming (see Figure 5 in Daily-130607). If this variant is confirmed downward wave Y of (B) will start forming in the nearest future.

Figure 8. Wave counting on 120 min chart.

Supposedly, wave ii of (c) is almost completed in the shape of the flat.
Note
Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides or an invitation to make a transaction.

Reference:

Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
June 18, 2007
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari Ltd. is obligatory.
金币:
奖励:
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注册时间:
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