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发表于 2009-4-20 08:14
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Introduction
1) Supposedly, wave iv of (c) of [x] of USD/CHF and EUR/USD has assumed the shape of the double three, which exterior shape resembles contracting triangle which lacks several final waves (refer to Figures 2 and 4).
John J. Murphy called such patterns triangles with three waves, whereas Robert Prechter in one of his publications (New Observations about Triangles, EWT magazine, April 2005) called them truncated triangles (sometimes triangles with five waves can be referred to this category, in case their two final waves are disproportionately small in comparison with the first three waves). I've mentioned these triangles in my book at p.218 as a possible object of my future publications.
2) Every pair under consideration has formed the ending of the impulse constructions, which can be treated the reversal point and the beginning of a new trend against the dollar. Though it is not confirmed yet. Moreover, if horizontal correction of the European currencies keeps forming, one of earlier described alternate scenarios may take effect.
3) Possible scenarios of movement of the main currency pairs were described in details in Annual-07 and Monthly-0107. Unfortunately, it is not clear yet which variant the price will choose, either the main variant or the alternate one. That is why wave picture may be in the state of the dynamic equilibrium, that is during several weeks either the main variant or the alternate one will be in the foreground by turns.
Note
- Once the opposite to the trend edge (base line or trend line) is tested any impulse or zigzag of any size may be considered to be completed. The inner wave counting of such a movement is of conventional character.
- The error of the trend reversal points defining with the help of impulse method is about +/- 1..4 time units. Date on the weekly chart is the last day of the current week.
- Often support and resistance levels, mentioned in the reports, are remote from the current price. In this case confirming or denying signals may be delayed. That is why in addition to the critical levels analysis inner structure analysis of the waves, moving in the same direction, should be used.
- It should be remembered that EWA forecasts show the probable price movements. This report is subject to change and reveals the analyst opinion of the situation at the moment of its release.
- Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides.
- Survey wave counting, alternate variants and possible schematic price movements are given in:
1. USD/CHF
For CHF survey wave counting refer to Annual-07 and Monthly-0107. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft for this currency on 480 min chart.
Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart.
Upward wave [x] of Y in the shape of the zigzag is supposed to be completed. Though it is not confirmed yet. Moreover, if horizontal correction keeps forming, one of the alternate scenarios can take effect.
In the mid-term plan wave [x] completion is expected to be confirmed. Downtrend is supposed to continue. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. Refer to Figure 2 for more details.
Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart.
Wave iv may have assumed the shape of the double three, which exterior shape resembles contracting triangle which lacks several final waves.
John J. Murphy called such patterns triangles with three waves, whereas Robert Prechter in one of his publications (EWT magazine, April 2005) called them truncated triangles (sometimes triangles with five waves can be referred to this category, in case their two final waves are disproportionately small in comparison with the first three waves). I've mentioned these triangles in my book at p.218 as a possible object of my future publications.
In the short-term plan wave (c) of [x] completion is expected. Downtrend is expected to continue. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.
2. EUR/USD
For EUR survey wave counting refer to Annual-07 and Monthly-0107. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart.
Upward wave [x] of Y in the shape of the zigzag is supposed to be completed. Though it is not confirmed yet. Moreover, if horizontal correction keeps forming, one of the alternate scenarios can take effect.
In the mid-term plan wave [x] completion is expected to be confirmed. Uptrend is supposed to continue. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. Refer to Figure 4 for more details.
Figure 4. Wave counting on 120 min chart.
Wave iv may have assumed the shape of the double three, which exterior shape resembles contracting triangle which lacks several final waves.
John J. Murphy called such patterns triangles with three waves, whereas Robert Prechter in one of his publications (EWT magazine, April 2005) called them truncated triangles (sometimes triangles with five waves can be referred to this category, in case their two final waves are disproportionately small in comparison with the first three waves). I've mentioned these triangles in my book at p.218 as a possible object of my future publications.
In the short-term plan wave (c) of [x] completion is expected. Uptrend is expected to continue. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.
3. GBP/USD
For survey wave counting of this currency refer to Annual-07 and Monthly-0107. Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart.
Downward wave [x] of Y in the shape of the zigzag is supposed to be completed.
In the mid-term plan uptrend is supposed to keep forming. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 6.
Figure 6. Wave counting on 120 min chart.
The third wave iii of impulse (a) is supposed to be almost completed.
In the short-term plan wave iii completion is expected to be confirmed. Correction iv is supposed to keep forming. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.
4. USD/JPY
For survey wave counting of this currency refer to Annual-07 and Monthly-0107. Refer to Figure 7 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart.
Upward wave [c] of B in the shape of the impulse is supposed to be almost completed.
In the mid-term plan wave [c] completion is expected to be confirmed. Downtrend is supposed to start forming. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 8.
Figure 8. Wave counting on 120 min chart.
Corrective wave construction, which has been forming this week, has assumed the shape of the skewed triangle. If the supposition is correct price thrust has reached 127% of the triangle hight, having almost completed impulse v of (v) forming.
In the short-term plan wave (v) of [c] completion is expected. Downtrend is supposed to start forming. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.
Reference
January 19, 2007 The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
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Figure 4. Wave counting on 120 min chart.
Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart.