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发表于 2009-4-20 07:52
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Introduction
1). Note how alternation guidelines for the corrective waves (ii) and (iv) of supposed impulses of the European currencies are fulfilled (refer to 480 min charts of this forecast). The second waves have formed new extremums (waves b of (ii) ending), the fourth waves did not manage to do it. The fourth waves of CHF and EUR reached 50% mark, the others remained not so deep (37% and 12% correspondingly). GBP also shows depth correction alternation, but in the inverse order (~50% and ~38%).
Moreover, supposed fourth waves reached the edge of the trend channel (GBP) and even broke it (CHF and EUR), having formed the completed corrective pattern, which presupposes the nearest change of the direction of prices movement against the dollar. These signs confirm the scenario with uncompleted impulse [a], forming against the dollar (refer to Figures C2, E2, G2 of the corresponding currency pairs in Monthly-1206). The alternate variants, described in the forecast, are not annulled yet.
In the fourth waves of the European currencies, which formed last week (refer to 120 min charts of this forecast), corrective zigzags show waves width alternation, the first leg of the zigzag has formed without corrections, clear-cut in this time-frame. The second leg, which corresponds by the length to the generally accepted statistics of waves correlation in zigzags, is wider, with clear-cut corrections (refer to part 4.2 in book Elliott's Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market).
2). In article New mid-term fall of USD is possible (EWA of USD/CAD) CAD movement is considered as an example of possible new turn of USD fall. On the back of it prices movement against the dollar is probable on the main currency pairs under consideration.
Below several new arguments in favor of USD expected fall are given.
Figure v1. Wave counting on the weekly chart.
RSI has tested its resistance level while price is at the upper edge of the channel, which increases chances of the trend downward reversal.
Figure v2. Wave counting on 480 chart.
Price has broken the upper edge of the supposed contracting diagonal triangle C. As a rule, it occurs before the very completion of the diagonal triangle. Moreover,divergence formed between the endings of the third and fifth waves and corresponding endings of oscillators MACD and RSI, which may also signal this pattern completion.
By the way, note that RSI and MACD oscillators are forming the resistance line while price reverses at the lower edge of the trend channel (refer to parts 4.5 and 4.6 in book Elliott's Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market).
Figure v3. Wave counting on 60 min chart.
CAD has reached the projected levels, almost approached the critical level at 1.1601 and almost completed forming of the diagonal triangle v of (c). According to R. Balan's Fifth Measurement Method (refer to Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA) and part 4.4 in book Elliott's Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market) the length of wave v, which has assumed the shape of the diagonal triangle, may be equal to the distance between the beginning of the impulse and the ending of the third wave iii (calculated value is equal to 1.1590).
Though in case price fixes behind the critical level, current wave counting should be adjusted.
Note
- Once the opposite to the trend edge (base line or trend line) is tested any impulse or zigzag of any size may be considered to be completed. The inner wave counting of such a movement is of conventional character.
- The error of the trend reversal points defining with the help of impulse method is about +/- 1..4 time units. Date on the weekly chart is the last day of the current week.
- Often support and resistance levels, mentioned in the reports, are remote from the current price. In this case confirming or denying signals may be delayed. That is why in addition to the critical levels analysis inner structure analysis of the waves, moving in the same direction, should be used.
- It should be remembered that EWA forecasts show the probable price movements. This report is subject to change and reveals the analyst opinion of the situation at the moment of its release.
- Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides.
- Survey wave counting, alternate variants and possible schematic price movements are given in:
1. USD/CHF
For CHF survey wave counting refer to Monthly-1206 and article Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft for this currency on 480 min chart.
Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart.
Wave (iv) of a downward impulse is supposed to be almost completed.
In the mid-term plan wave (iv) completion is expected. Wave (v) is supposed to start forming. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 2.
Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart.
Possible variant of wave counting is given in the chart. Zigzag (iv) forming is almost completed.
In the short-term plan wave (v) is supposed to start forming. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.
2. EUR/USD
For EUR survey wave counting refer to Monthly-1206, Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart.
Wave (iv) of an upward impulse is supposed to be almost completed.
In the mid-term plan wave (iv) completion is expected. Wave (v) is supposed to start forming. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 4.
Figure 4. Wave counting on 120 min chart.
Possible variant of wave counting is given in the chart. Zigzag (iv) forming is almost completed.
In the short-term plan wave (v) is supposed to start forming. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.
3. GBP/USD
For survey wave counting of this currency refer to Monthly-1206, Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007. Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart.
Wave (iv) of an upward impulse is supposed to be completed. First waves of the final wave (v) of an upward impulse may be forming.
In the mid-term plan wave (iv) completion is expected to be confirmed. Wave (v) is supposed to start forming. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 6.
Figure 6. Wave counting on 120 min chart.
Possible variant of wave counting is given in the chart. Forming of the double three (iv) is almost completed.
In the short-term plan wave (v) is supposed to start forming. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.
4. USD/JPY
For survey wave counting of this currency refer to Monthly-1206, Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007. Refer to Figure 7 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart.
Corrective wave [ii] of a downward impulse is supposed to be almost completed. It may be assuming the shape of the narrow double zigzag.
In the mid-term plan wave ([ii]) completion is expected. Wave [iii] is supposed to start forming. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 8.
Figure 8. Wave counting on 120 min chart.
Possible variant of wave counting is given in the chart. Forming of the double zigzag [ii] is almost completed.
In the short-term plan wave [ii] completion is expected. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.
Reference
December 18, 2006 The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
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