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发表于 2009-4-19 07:00
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Introduction
According to the main scenario wide correction (wave ) may be expected before the beginning of September (refer to Monthly Wave Analysis, August, 2006). Its first wave (a) is supposed to be completed already.
Note
- Once the opposite to the trend edge (base line or trend line) is tested any impulse or zigzag of any size may be considered to be completed. The inner wave counting of such a movement is of conventional character.
- The error of the trend reversal points defining with the help of impulse method is about +/- 1..4 time units. Date on the weekly chart is the last day of the current week.
- Often support and resistance levels, mentioned in the reports, are remote from the current price. In this case confirming or denying signals may be delayed. That is why in addition to the critical levels analysis inner structure analysis of the waves, moving in the same direction, should be used.
- It should be remembered that EWA forecasts show the probable price movements. This report is subject to change and reveals the analyst opinion of the situation at the moment of its release.
- Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides.
- Survey wave counting, alternate variants and possible schematic price movements are given in:
1. USD/CHF
For CHF survey wave counting refer to Monthly Wave Analysis, August, 2006, Possible nearest perspectives of the main currency pairs (EWA). Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft for this currency on 480 min chart.
Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart.
Correction (or its part) has reached 50% level. In case correction is not completed it will probably keep forming horizontally. Ending of the second wave-link X is the critical level.
In the mid-term perspective horizontal correction is expected to keep forming. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 2.
Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart.
The first “Three” pattern of correction is supposed to be formed in the shape of flat, that is why its further deepening in the shape of zigzag is hardly probable.
In the short-term plan forming of downward part of correction is expected. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.
2. EUR/USD
The above information about CHF is the mirror image of that one about EUR. For EUR survey wave counting refer to Monthly Wave Analysis, August, 2006, Possible nearest perspectives of the main currency pairs (EWA). Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart.
Correction (or its part) has almost reached 50% level. In case correction is not completed it will probably keep forming horizontally. Ending of the second wave-link X is the critical level.
In the mid-term perspective horizontal correction is expected to keep forming. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 4.
Figure 4. Wave counting on 120 min chart.
The first “Three” pattern of correction is supposed to be formed in the shape of flat, that is why its further deepening in the shape of zigzag is hardly probable.
In the short-term plan forming of upward part of correction is expected. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.
3. GBP/USD
For survey wave counting of this currency refer to Monthly Wave Analysis, August, 2006, Possible nearest perspectives of the main currency pairs (EWA). Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart.
Correction (or its part) has reached only 24% of Fibo level. The depth of such a retracement and price testing of the lower edge of the channel are characteristic of the fourth waves of impulse, that is why we can not be sure that wave [a] is completed. That is why final upward impulse (diagonal triangle) (v) of [a] is probable (the alternate variant is given in the upper part of the chart).
In the mid-term perspective correction is expected to keep forming. Wave picture is supposed to become clearer. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 6.
Figure 6. Wave counting on 120 min chart.
Two possible variants of wave counting are shown in Figure 6. Nevertheless the nearest expected movement is expected to be upward.
In the short-term plan forming of upward part of correction or final impulse (diagonal triangle) is expected. Wave picture is supposed to become clearer. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.
4. USD/JPY
For survey wave counting of this currency refer to Monthly Wave Analysis, August, 2006, Possible nearest perspectives of the main currency pairs (EWA). Refer to Figure 7 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart.
Correction (or its part) has reached 62% level. In case correction is not completed it will probably keep forming horizontally. Ending of the second wave-link X is the critical level.
In the mid-term perspective horizontal correction is expected to keep forming. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 8.
Figure 8. Wave counting on 120 min chart.
The first “Three” pattern of correction is supposed to be formed in the shape of zigzag, that is why its further deepening in the shape of double/triple zigzag is probable.
In the short-term plan forming of downward part of correction is expected. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.
Reference
August 14, 2006 The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
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