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- 2006-7-3
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发表于 2009-4-18 20:29
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Note
- Once the opposite to the trend edge (base line or trend line) is tested any impulse or zigzag of any size may be considered to be completed. The inner wave counting of such a movement is of conventional character.
- The error of the trend reversal points defining with the help of impulse method is about +/- 1..4 time units. Date on the weekly chart is the last day of the current week.
- Often support and resistance levels, mentioned in the reports, are remote from the current price. In this case confirming or denying signals may be delayed. That is why in addition to the critical levels analysis inner structure analysis of the waves, moving in the same direction, should be used.
- It should be remembered that EWA forecasts show the probable price movements. This report is subject to change and reveals the analyst opinion of the situation at the moment of its release.
- Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides.
- Survey wave counting, alternate variants and possible schematic price movements are given in:
1. USD/CHF
For CHF survey wave counting refer to Monthly Wave Analysis, May, 2006, Possible nearest perspectives of the main currency pairs (EWA) and Two possible fourth waves till the mid of June (EWA). Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft for this currency on 480 min chart.
Figure 1. Wave counting on 480 min chart.
Narrow wave (iii) is supposed to be forming. Wave iv may be already completed, ending of wave [2] of v of (iii) (refer to Figure 2 below) may form above the key pulse point next Monday (or today taking into account the error of the method and weekends on May 20-21).
In the mid-term perspective downtrend is expected to keep forming. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 2.
Figure 2. Wave counting on 120 min chart.
One of possible variants of wave counting is shown in Figure 2. Wave iv is supposed to have assumed the shape of the zigzag. The last downward movement may be considered to be wave [1] of v due to the wave structure. It is better to speculate for breakout of the confirming level once the retracement (wave [2]) is formed.
In the short-term plan this scenario is expected to be confirmed, wave picture is supposed to become clearer. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.
2. EUR/USD
The above information about CHF is the mirror image of that one about EUR. For EUR survey wave counting refer to Monthly Wave Analysis, May, 2006, Possible nearest perspectives of the main currency pairs (EWA) and Two possible fourth waves till the mid of June (EWA). Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
Figure 3. Wave counting on 480 min chart.
Narrow wave (iii) is supposed to be forming. Wave iv may be already completed, ending of wave [2] of v of (iii) (refer to Figure 4 below) may form above the key pulse point next Monday (or today taking into account the error of the method and weekends on May 20-21).
In the mid-term perspective uptrend is expected to keep forming. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 4.
Figure 4. Wave counting on 120 min chart.
One of possible variants of wave counting is shown in Figure 4. Wave iv is supposed to have assumed the shape of the zigzag. The last upward movement may be considered to be wave [1] of v due to the wave structure. It is better to speculate for breakout of the confirming level once the retracement (wave [2]) is formed.
In the short-term plan this scenario is expected to be confirmed, wave picture is supposed to become clearer. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.
3. GBP/USD
For survey wave counting of this currency refer to Monthly Wave Analysis, May, 2006, Possible nearest perspectives of the main currency pairs (EWA) and Two possible fourth waves till the mid of June (EWA). Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
Figure 5. Wave counting on 480 min chart.
Narrow wave (iii) is supposed to be forming. Wave iv may be already completed, ending of wave [2] of v of (iii) (refer to Figure 6 below) may form above the key pulse point next Monday (or today taking into account the error of the method and weekends on May 20-21).
In the mid-term perspective uptrend is expected to keep forming. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 6.
Figure 6. Wave counting on 120 min chart.
One of possible variants of wave counting is shown in Figure 6. Wave iv is supposed to have assumed the shape of the flat. The last upward movement may be considered to be wave [1] of v due to the wave structure. It is better to speculate for breakout of the confirming level once the retracement (wave [2]) is formed.
In the short-term plan this scenario is expected to be confirmed, wave picture is supposed to become clearer. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.
4. USD/JPY
For survey wave counting of this currency refer to Monthly Wave Analysis, May, 2006, Possible nearest perspectives of the main currency pairs (EWA) and Two possible fourth waves till the mid of June (EWA). Refer to Figure 7 for the wave counting draft of this currency on 480 min chart.
Figure 7. Wave counting on 480 min chart.
Wave (iii) is supposed to be completed already.
In the mid-term perspective wave (iv) is supposed to keep forming. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 8.
Figure 8. Wave counting on 120 min chart.
One of possible variants of wave counting is shown in Figure 8. Wave a? is supposed to have assumed the shape of the flat. The alternate counting is at the foot of the picture.
In the short-term plan wave (iv)? forming is expected to continue. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.
Reference
May 19, 2006 The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
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