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发表于 2009-4-13 08:29
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Introduction
Mid-term forecasts remained the same (refer to Daily Wave Analysis, February 28, 2006). Though yesterday's violent and deep impulse against USD does not exclude scenario with the immediate completion of the whole corrective pattern (for European currencies it is wave (b)). Local pulse point just increases expectations.
Note
- Once the opposite to the trend edge (base line or trend line) is tested any impulse or zigzag of any size may be considered to be completed. The inner wave counting of such a movement is of conventional character.
- The error of the trend reversal points defining with the help of impulse method is about +/- 1..4 time units. Date on the weekly chart is the last day of the current week.
- Often support and resistance levels, mentioned in the reports, are remote from the current price. In this case confirming or denying signals may be delayed. That is why in addition to the critical levels analysis inner structure analysis of the waves, moving in the same direction, should be used.
- It should be remembered that EWA forecasts show the probable price movements. This report is subject to change and reveals the analyst opinion of the situation at the moment of its release.
- Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides.
- Survey wave counting, alternate variants and possible schematic price movements are given in:
1. USD/CHF
For CHF survey wave counting refer to Monthly Wave Analysis, March, 2006. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft for this currency on 120M chart.

Figure 1. Wave counting on 120M chart.
Several possible variants of wave counting are shown in Figure 1. Yesterday's downward impulse may be: - the first wave of the final impulse in expanded flat ([1] of c),
- the first leg of zigzag in the alternate variant (a of (b)),
- and, most important, it may be the final wave of the whole expanded flat (c of (b)).
In the short-term plan at least upward rebound is expected and wave picture is supposed to become clearer. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.
2. EUR/USD
The above information about CHF is the mirror image of that one about EUR. For EUR survey wave counting refer to Monthly Wave Analysis, March, 2006. Refer to Figure 2 for the wave counting draft of this currency on the 120M chart.

Figure 2. Wave counting on 120M chart.
Several possible variants of wave counting are shown in Figure 2. Yesterday's upward impulse may be: - the first wave of the final impulse in expanded flat ([1] of c),
- the first leg of zigzag in the alternate variant (a of (b)),
- and, most important, it may be the final wave of the whole expanded flat (c of (b)).
In the short-term plan at least downward rebound is expected and wave picture is supposed to become clearer. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.
3. GBP/USD
For survey wave counting of this currency refer to Monthly Wave Analysis, March, 2006. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on the 120M chart.

Figure 3. Wave counting on 120M chart.
Several possible variants of wave counting are shown in Figure 3. Yesterday's upward impulse may be: - the first wave of the final impulse in zigzag ([1] of c),
- the first leg of zigzag in the alternate variant (a of (b)),
- and, most important, it may be the final wave of the whole zigzag (c of (b)).
In the short-term plan at least downward rebound is expected and wave picture is supposed to become clearer. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.
4. USD/JPY
For survey wave counting of this currency refer to Monthly Wave Analysis, March, 2006. Refer to Figure 4 for the wave counting draft of this currency on the 120M chart.

Figure 4. Wave counting on 120M chart.
Though yesterday's variant is still possible (refer to Daily Wave Analysis, February 28, 2006), corrective pattern (either wave (ii) or wave (iv)?) may complete today simultaneously with European currencies.
In the short-term plan at least upward rebound is expected and wave picture is supposed to become clearer. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.
Reference
March 1, 2006 The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
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