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发表于 2009-4-13 06:32
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Introduction
In the article Confirmation of the annual forecast by price movement and Robert R. Prechter's team, October, 17 (in Russian), prof's wave counting sequential transformation for this year was shown. As the result of this transformation, the difference between our forecasts was minimal in October, particularly, they differed by the shape of the final wave of many-weeks correction [B]: According to my main scenario, the double (or triple) zigzag was expected (refer to Figure v1 below), whereas according to Robert Prechter, simple zigzag was presupposed (Figures v2 and v3 below).
Figure v1. EUR/USD wave counting in October.
Figure v2. Wave counting of Robert R. Prechter's team in October.
Figure v3. Wave counting of Robert R. Prechter's team in December.
Today I have received the last scenario modified by Robert R. Prechter's team (Figure v4, below).
Figure v4. The last wave counting of Robert R. Prechter's team.
Judging by this chart, prof's team also expects that the final wave of many-weeks correction [B] is assuming the shape of double (or triple) zigzag.
Note
- Once the opposite to the trend edge (base line or trend line) is tested any impulse or zigzag of any size may be considered to be completed. The inner wave counting of such a movement is of conventional character.
- The error of the trend reversal points defining with the help of impulse method is about +/- 1..4 time units. Date on the weekly chart is the last day of the current week.
- Often support and resistance levels, mentioned in the reports, are remote from the current price. In this case confirming or denying signals may be delayed. That is why in addition to the critical levels analysis inner structure analysis of the waves, moving in the same direction, should be used.
- It should be remembered that EWA forecasts show the probable price movements. This report is subject to change and reveals the analyst opinion of the situation at the moment of its release.
- Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides.
- Survey wave counting, alternative variants and possible schematic price movements are given in:
1. USD/CHF
For CHF survey wave counting refer to MONTHLY Wave Analysis, December, 2005. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft for this currency on 480M chart.
Figure 1. Wave counting on 480M chart.
Wave Х may assume the shape of a simple zigzag with completion in the middle of December at 1.27 (refer to MONTHLY Wave Analysis, December, 2005) and form wave [c] in the shape of an impulse.
The nearest alternative variant (refer to Depth of the Current Retracement will specify further price movement (in Russian)), is shown in the upper part of the chart.
In the mid-term plan wave Х is expected to complete its forming. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 2.
Figure 2. Wave counting on 120M chart.
Possible wave counting is shown in Figure 2. Wave [c] is supposed to be assuming the shape of impulse. Wave (i)of[c] may be a wedge, this is a draft analysis.
In the short-term plan wave [c] is expected to complete its forming. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.
2. EUR/USD
The above information about CHF is the mirror image of that one about EUR. For EUR survey wave counting refer to MONTHLY Wave Analysis, December, 2005. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on the 480M chart.
Figure 3. Wave counting on 480M chart.
Wave Х may assume the shape of a simple (or double) zigzag with completion in the mid of December at 1.22 (refer to MONTHLY Wave Analysis, December, 2005) and form wave [c] in the shape of an impulse.
The nearest alternative variant (refer to Depth of the Current Retracement will specify further price movement (in Russian)), is shown in the lower part of the chart.
In the mid-term plan wave Х is expected to complete its forming. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 4.
Figure 4 . Wave counting on 120M chart.
Possible wave counting is shown in Figure 4. Wave [c] is supposed to be assuming the shape of impulse. Wave (i)of[c] may be a wedge, this is a draft analysis.
In the short-term plan wave [c] is expected to complete its forming. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.
3. GBP/USD
For survey wave counting of this currency refer to MONTHLY Wave Analysis, December, 2005. Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on the 480M chart.
Figure 5 . Wave counting on 480M chart.
Wave Х is supposed to be forming, it may assume the shape of a simple (or double) zigzag with completion in the mid of December at 1.78 or 1.79**. The nearest alternative variant (refer to Depth of the Current Retracement will specify further price movement (in Russian)) is shown in the lower part of the chart.
In the mid-term plan wave Х is expected to complete its forming. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 6.
Figure 6. Wave counting on 120M chart.
Possible wave counting is shown in Figure 6. Wave [a] may have assumed the shape of the “wedge” with extension in the first wave, wave [c] may have assumed the shape of a simple impulse.
In the short-term plan wave [c] is expected to complete its forming. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.
4. USD/JPY
For survey wave counting of this currency refer to MONTHLY Wave Analysis, December, 2005. Refer to Figure 7 for the wave counting draft of this currency on the 480M chart.
Figure 7 . Wave counting on 480M chart.
Completion of wave A is not confirmed yet. Wave [a] may be treated as the downward wedge (refer to Figure 8 below), then supposed correction B may assume the shape of a simple zigzag.
In the mid-term perspective impulse А completion is expected to be confirmed. Price behavior is expected to become clearer. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 8.
Figure 8 . Wave counting on 120M chart.
Possible wave counting is shown in Figure 8.
In the short-term plan impulse A completion is supposed to be confirmed. Price behavior is expected to become clearer. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.
Reference
December, 13, 2005 The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
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