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- 2006-7-3
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发表于 2009-4-13 08:10
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Introduction
In this article another probable scenario and further price movement forecast, which pretend to become the main one, are described, previous variant (refer to Daily Wave Analysis, February 3, 2006) still may be confirmed.
RSI resistance level and its divergence with price additionally confirm this new scenario with price at the trend line for EUR and CHF (refer to Figures 1 and 3 below).
Note
- Once the opposite to the trend edge (base line or trend line) is tested any impulse or zigzag of any size may be considered to be completed. The inner wave counting of such a movement is of conventional character.
- The error of the trend reversal points defining with the help of impulse method is about +/- 1..4 time units. Date on the weekly chart is the last day of the current week.
- Often support and resistance levels, mentioned in the reports, are remote from the current price. In this case confirming or denying signals may be delayed. That is why in addition to the critical levels analysis inner structure analysis of the waves, moving in the same direction, should be used.
- It should be remembered that EWA forecasts show the probable price movements. This report is subject to change and reveals the analyst opinion of the situation at the moment of its release.
- Given possible trading plans are purely informational purpose only and they should not be considered as trading guides.
- Survey wave counting, alternate variants and possible schematic price movements are given in:
1. USD/CHF
For CHF survey wave counting refer to Monthly Wave Analysis, February, 2006. Refer to Figure 1 for the wave counting draft for this currency on 480M chart.
Figure 1. Wave counting on 480M chart.
According to this scenario wave (a) is supposed to be assuming the shape of the wedge with extended first wave. Wave [x] ending is still the critical level.
In the mid-term plan wave picture is expected to become clearer. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 2.
Figure 2. Wave counting on 120M chart.
One of possible variants of wave counting is shown in Figure 2. Wave v may finish with truncated fifth ([5] of v).
Wave [x] ending is still the critical level. Moreover, wave v should not be longer than wave iii, otherwise I will return to the previous scenario (refer to Daily Wave Analysis, February 3, 2006).
In the short-term plan wave picture is expected to become more clear. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.
2. EUR/USD
The above information about CHF is the mirror image of that one about EUR. For EUR survey wave counting refer to Monthly Wave Analysis, February, 2006. Refer to Figure 3 for the wave counting draft of this currency on the 480M chart.
Figure 3. Wave counting on 480M chart.
According to this scenario wave (a) is supposed to be assuming the shape of the wedge with extended first wave. Wave [x] ending is still the critical level.
In the mid-term plan wave picture is expected to become clearer. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 4.
Figure 4. Wave counting on 120M chart.
One of possible variants of wave counting is shown in Figure 4. Wave v may finish with truncated fifth ([5] of v).
Wave [x] ending is still the critical level. Moreover, wave v should not be longer than wave iii, otherwise I will return to the previous scenario (refer to Daily Wave Analysis, February 3, 2006).
In the short-term plan wave picture is expected to become more clear. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.
3. GBP/USD
For survey wave counting of this currency refer to Monthly Wave Analysis, February, 2006. Refer to Figure 5 for the wave counting draft of this currency on the 480M chart.
Figure 5. Wave counting on 480M chart.
According to this scenario wave (a) is supposed to have assumed the shape of the wedge and wave (b) is forming in the shape of the flat or triangle. Wave [x] ending is still the relative critical level.
In the mid-term plan wave picture is expected to become clearer. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 6.
Figure 6. Wave counting on 120M chart.
One of possible variants of wave counting is shown in Figure 6. Wave [x] ending is still the relative critical level. In case price keeps dropping, I will return to the previous variant (refer to Daily Wave Analysis, February 3, 2006).
In the short-term plan wave picture is expected to become more clear. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.
4. USD/JPY
For survey wave counting of this currency refer to Monthly Wave Analysis, February, 2006. Refer to Figure 7 for the wave counting draft of this currency on the 480M chart.
Figure 7 . Wave counting on 480M chart.
Wave (iii) of impulse [c] is supposed to be almost completed. Waves (i), (ii) and endings are the critical levels for this scenario. The alternate variant is in gray color.
In the mid-term plan wave (iv) is expected to start forming. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart. For more details refer to Figure 8.
Figure 8 . Wave counting on 120M chart.
One of possible variants of wave counting is shown in Figure 8. Wave v may finish with truncated fifth ([5] of v). Waves (i), (ii) and endings are the critical levels for this scenario.
In the short-term plan wave (iii) is expected to be completed and wave (iv) is expected to start forming. Price movement schematic forecast and support/resistance levels are shown in the chart.
Reference
February 6, 2006 The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
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