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发表于 2009-4-6 22:15
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24.12.07
Correction to come – dollar is in the fourth wave
General view
Main pairs have reached their target levels and now the 4th correction wave (by Elliot) is beginning.
It’s known that the 4th wave is the most complex and it can deliver surprises. This time won’t be exception. I’m being cautious about the fact that gold made a sudden leap towards rising of price while dollar was still – this is a signal of dollar’s drop. Also, swap trade has begun in cross pairs, causing repositioning of traders’ deals. That confirms the movement about gold. Hence, in my opinion, from the current 4th wave we may expect very sudden as well as very slow moves due to absence of powerful news (that are able to give impulse to the market) for over two weeks.
EURUSD
The pair is consolidating in “a-a+” channel, breaking of its upper bound will confirm the end of the 3rd descending wave and the beginning of the 4th ascending wave with target at 1.4525. A neck line of “head & shoulders” shape is at the same level. From 1.4525 I expect the pair to turn with a target of the 5th wave (1.4095). But before this level, at 1.4310, there is a very important trend “G” (upper bound of bull’s triangle), which is able to keep the pair from going down. If it manages to do so, strategically, I expect a serious correction to 1.4670 level (see weekly graph) followed by pair’s lowering to trend “H”, approximately to a level of the 39th shape (1.3900).
If the 4th wave won’t start, the pair will go down to 1.4210.
http://img412.imageshack.us/img412/9260/eurusdd1mm2.gif - D1
http://img147.imageshack.us/img147/6377/eurusdw1zf2.gif - weekly
Trading recommendations:
Buy 1.4424, target 1.4525, stop 1.4384.
Sell 1.4525, target 1.4210, stop 1.4565.
GBPUSD
The reason of stop in pair’s lowering is “G” trend from the weekly graph, and also the ending of the 3rd wave of the daily trend “C-C+”. Although rumor has it that pound is currently the most vulnerable pair, the analysis of the picture about EURGBP clearly negates this rumor.
Now the pair is being traded in a descending “a-a+” channel, breaking of its upper bound will confirm the end of the 3rd descending wave and the beginning of the 4th ascending wave with target at 2.0222. At the hour’s graph “double bottom” shape is forming based on 1.9892 level. On its breaking, the pair will tend to break the upper bound of “a-a+” trend. The target of the 4th wave is 2.0222 level, but there is a very important trend “E” before it, that is capable of keeping the pair from growing to 2.0222. It’s very probably that the growth will stop at 2.0115 level and the pair will forward to 1.9557 from it. That level is not the target of the 5th wave which is at 1.9229, but is rather a good support.
http://img147.imageshack.us/img147/583/gbpusdd1dj4.gif - D1
http://img147.imageshack.us/img147/1880/gbpusdw1cd7.gif - weekly
Trading recommendations:
Accumulative positions
1) Buy 1.9910, stop 1.9870, target 2.0115
2) Buy on breaking of the “a-a+” channel’s upper bound, stop 60 points, target 2.0115
From 2.0115 I will consider options to sell.
EURGBP
The pair has reached the target 0.7253 on the monthly “bull’s triangle” shape and now it is most likely to undergo a serious correction. On the weekly graph we see that the pair is in “E-E+” descending trend that should contain 5 ascending waves. On “C-C+” trend breaking the 3rd wave will finish and the 4th correction wave with 0.7062 target will start. The target of the 5th wave will be 0.7390. In favor of “C-C+” trend breaking speaks the side channel from the daily “K-K+” graph, and the “triple vertex” shape which has exhausted its growth potential. Analysis of the 4-hours graph shows that the ascending “a-a+” trend is just about to be broken and the pair will go down to the first support at 0.7172.
Such picture is in favor of deeper correction about GBPUSD pair and starting from it, the pair is quite capable of reaching 2.0222, having not bounced off 2.0115.
http://img147.imageshack.us/img147/9894/eurgbph4lg2.gif - H4
http://img147.imageshack.us/img147/3812/eurgbpd1rg9.gif - D1
http://img147.imageshack.us/img147/2982/eurgbpw1az9.gif - weekly
http://img100.imageshack.us/img100/3304/eurgbpmnqm9.gif - MN
Trading recommendations:
Sell 0.7223, intermediate target 0.7172, stop 0.7248.
USDCHF
The pair consolidates in “a-a+” channel, breaking of its upper bound will confirm the end of the 3rd descending wave and the beginning of the 4th ascending wave with a target at 1.1432 – 1.1372. The target of the 5th wave is 1.1862.
http://img134.imageshack.us/img134/7411/usdchfd1sb0.gif - D1
http://img100.imageshack.us/img100/6453/usdchfw1cz8.gif - weekly
Trading recommendations:
Sell 1.1485, target 1.1400, stop 1.1525
I will consider buying later from 1.1372.
USDJPY
Contrary to main dollar pairs, I see JPY reducing versus dollar. Possibly, this is caused by a swap trade mentioned earlier in the general view at the market, but technically such picture is being drawn unambiguously.
The pair has broken the descending weekly “E-E+” trend, breaking of which gives the target of growth at 116.05 and, strategic, at 120.55 (possibly unreal). If pair manages to break the “F” trend, the growth will continue to 116.05, wherefrom the correction to 113.95 is possible in future. Breaking of the side “a-a+” trend amplifies the potential of breaking the “F” trend and gives the pair an ascending impulse.
http://img502.imageshack.us/my.php?i...sdjpyd1pz9.gif - D1
Dollar index
The picture I see about it is not as clear as about the pairs listed above, but still I see something.
Index is set against the weekly “E” trend, which shows a resistance. On breaking of the side “a-a+” trend the ascending impulse will fade out and the index will go down to 76.32 or bounce off the “C” trend.
http://img523.imageshack.us/img523/233/dxyh4wq1.gif - H4
http://img502.imageshack.us/img502/3372/dxyd1fd4.gif -D1
GOLD
On the daily graph gold is in “triangle” shape (“E-E+”), and in that triangle there is a 4-hour triangle (“C-C+”) which had been broken last week. Its breaking opens to gold an opportunity of growth to target level of 814.47, from which (with “a-a+” trend breaking) I expect a drop to the daily triangle’s lower bound, “E” trend (785.50).
http://img229.imageshack.us/img229/6812/goldgp3.gif - H4-D1
Oil
In my previous forecast I wrote that the growth from 89.30 level is possible, and so it happened. Now I expect oil at 96.099. Approximately from this level (with breaking of the ascending “a-a+” trend) the descending trend with target at 81.43 should start.
http://img523.imageshack.us/img523/251/oilh4im4.gif - H4
http://img295.imageshack.us/img295/4888/oild1kk9.gif - D1 |
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