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发表于 2009-4-6 18:54
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September 25th, 2008 at 9:45 am
No direction.in: General, Trades
That is one way to put it. After last couple of weeks, and the large moves then, it feels very slow now. Few pips this way, than the other. Finally some moves few hours ago, USD got stronger, but other crosses are still just spinning wheels. Let’s take the one I targeted earlier, for example, EUR-AUD. I had a buy order at 1.7675.
Trade was filled, if just, and then promptly ran against me. I gave it a little more room than prudent, but eventually got out at at 1.7584, for a loss of 91 pips. What we are seeing here is basically sideways action. I decided to get out. One can always enter on next breakout, that is why there is a buy order 1.7695. If there is a move above last high.
At the same time I’m eying NZD-CHF. It is very close to being reverse of EUR-AUD, but I tend to analyze currencies on their own merritts and not in terms of correlation or lack of one.
I’m looking for a buy at 0.7495. My target here is less ambitious, 0.7550.
Just across the wires- congress reached agreement on bailout. I’m done for the day, besides, I don’t trade fundamental announcements. Whatever happens ov
September 23rd, 2008 at 10:13 am
Still arguing.in: General, Trades
No, not me. I hate arguments, and simply disengage and do my thing anyways. The congress and treasury people. This bail out, everybody is talking about, our esteemed legislative body is making a Turkish bazaar over it. And good, I hope they reject it, instead of assuming another mountain of debt. At any rate, they will do what they may, and I’m just wasting my time even thinking about it. I’d better concentrate on trading.
Trade I posted here in last post worked out as intended, albeit with some jitters. Yesterday I bought GBP-CHF at 1.9980, objective was 2.0120.
I just closed it about half an hour ago for a gain of 140 pips. Trade lasted almost exactly 24 hours. If you recall, previous few weeks I concentrated on GBP-JPY. I will return to it in due time. On Friday I mentioned possibly having ne best friend this week (currency pair to trade). I wanted to focus on AUD crosses, with an expectation of Aussie getting stronger. So far my new friend is not really friendly to me, but I want to try something here. Yes, this is AUD but in different role.
Looking at EUR-AUD seems to me Aussie is going to weaken some more. I placed a buy order at 1.7675 and a target of 1.7800-1.7820. After that, I think, Australian dollar will get stronger.
In the latest
September 22nd, 2008 at 9:49 am
Good start.in: General, Trades
Week opened up on a right note for me. Initial moves were as big as I expected, but things did pick up once Europe opened for business. What is on everybody’s mind, are the details of this much vaunted bail out proposal. Since, so far, they are unavailable, dollar is slowly drifting lower. in some instances, not that slowly. Like the trade I was in - long EUR-USD.
Entry at 1.4550, exit at 1.4750, 200 pips. Very good trade. I did not expect it to happen so fast, since I used 4H charts, nonetheless it is great.
I’m moving away from dollar pairs, as there is going to be some wicked moves there. As more and more information emerges about the FED intervention, market is going to react to it. I’m not not even going to try predicting what if….. Logic would dictate, that USD is going to get weaker under the mountain of new debt, but logic is not the best predictor. I’ll let other people to fight it.
As for myself, I’m taking a stub at GBP-CHF.
I just bought it at 1.9980. Objective for this trade is about 2.0120.
There is going to
September 21st, 2008 at 7:16 am
Now, what?in: General, Trades
This is not your typical exasperated question from a confused trader. For once this simple phrase has a real meaning. On Friday US treasury announced a bail out of distressed financial institutions, by “removing toxic mortgage loans off their books”. This bombastic statement was very short on details. Over the weekend Paulson, Bernanke and Busch have been trying to push it through congress, and so far it is not a sure sell. As of this writing, the estimated cost of this action is 700-1000 Billion. Nobody is even sure what positive results, if any, this intervention might cause. If this “package” (better name is Trojan horse) is approved, it will guarantee only one thing - US public debt will be raised from ridiculous levels into the realm of absurd.
The final details of this so called “rescue plan”, will not be known till at least Monday, maybe Tuesday. One should expect a lot of indecision in early trading on Sunday. While it is very likely that the moves are going to be large, overflow from Friday, trends can change with any news or rumours.
Personally I will not be trying to guess how markets are going to react to news, so there will not be much trading for me on the time frames that are suitable for posting here.I’m placing one order for now.
This is a very tentative buy of EUR-USD at 1.4550, looking for 200-250 pips gain. Notice this is 4H chart used, this trade might take some time. By the time Europe opens tonight, initial jitters might out and new set ups might emerge.
I will be watching early trading with interest. If it is really wild, I’ll likely take some trades on small time frames like 1M, 5M charts, but small size. One must be p
September 20th, 2008 at 5:23 am
NZD- ready for a rally?in: Articles, General
New Zealand dollar has been in a severe sell off for a few months. Has it found the bottom and, if so, how high can it rally from here?Over last few years we have witnessed historic drop in US dollar. Many currencies found themselves in a prolonged up trend, some of them reaching dizzying levels. Most notable has been Euro, which moved into all time high of over 1.6000. Canadian dollar also visited never before seen levels. Most remaining major currencies staged very impressive runs of their own. One of them was New Zealand dollar.NZD, also known as “Kiwi” experienced perhaps the most telling rally of them all. Between 2001 and early 2008 it moved 0.4000 to 0.8200, effectively doubling in value against USD. We don’t see something like this often, certainly not among currencies of major, established economies. Very impressive.Earlier this year USD started to regain some strength. While eventually dollar gained ground on all currencies, NZD was the first one to exhibit weakness and turn. This happened in spite of having the highest interest rates in the developed world. According to some, they were the leading reason in Kiwi’s earlier rise. By the time Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut rates for the first time in 5 years, NZD-USD had already lost 700 pips. That was in July.
Since then NZD experience continued fall. Being one of the so called “commodities currencies”, it got under pressure when raw materials prices started to fall. After that economic news from coming from Auckland went from bad to worse: rising inflation and unemployment, huge slow down in house sales, loss of consumer confidence, etc,. List can go on and on.
By the time RBNZ was cutting rates again on September 11th, New Zealand dollar fell over 1700 to just under 0.6500. In a rather surprising move, the rates were lowered by 0.50% as opposed to expected 0.25%. Much to the surprise of trading public, this action failed to cause farther drop in NZD. There was a slide lasting couple of hours followed by a sharp rebound.
Is the worst over? While economy of New Zealand has not improved, news from other countries became much worse. It appears there is a world wide economic slow down, if not all out recession. From now on, most of the central banks are expected to be cutting rates. This means, that Kiwi will likely maintain large interest rate differential, making it an attractive instrument for investors seeking above average rates.
Looks like the recent low of 0.6500, will hold for some time. On technical bases, we can expected rally from current levels to perhaps as high as 0.7500. It is very unlikely we will see a very fast, strong move, but rather measured, steady appreciation in NZD-USD, lasting perhaps 6 months or so. Incidentally, that is not going to be just against US dollar, but rather broader Kiwi strength.It must be pointed out, that very long term charts, monthly, are still
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