一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

Uncertainty before non-farm payrolls



Dollar index
Index has broken a neck line and the 77.84 level is its target. But since a turned candle “hammer” formed at the EUR/USD daily graph today, tomorrow is the time for very great news concerning employment market and the picture over all main pairs is clear to everyone, movement towards 77.84 is very possible, as well as reverse neck line breaking followed by decrease with 75.14 target.

http://img70.imageshack.us/img70/827/dxyd1ys1.gif - D1



GOLD
On a daily graph gold forms a “triangle” shape which may be broken either upwards or downwards (which is more probable). On a 4-hours graph a “head & shoulders” shape is formed. If tomorrow (December, 7) gold will manage to remain below neck line, then it will go down to “triangle” shape’s lower bound (779.38). In the case of its breaking gold will tend to grow to triangle’s higher bound (828.36) but in the path of this growth there will be a resistance at 820.50.
http://img70.imageshack.us/img70/4953/goldh4ex8.gif - H4
http://img223.imageshack.us/img223/580/goldd1mg3.gif - D1



EURUSD
This night EUR/USD sharply broke a neck line (1.4634), after reaching a red ascending daily trend (1.4525) the pair rapidly bumped out of it and went back to a neck line. During this movement a turned candle “hammer” shape was formed. The pair’s situation is uncertain. Logically, after breaking a neck line a good descending trend should start, but forming of a turned candle assumes equal possibilities of going up or down.

Upon neck line bottom-up breaking (1.4643) there are two variants of consequences:
1. the pair may bump off an ascending green daily trend.
2. in the case of breaking of this trend, as well as breaking a descending 4-hours trend, the pair will forward to 1.4840.
In the event that the pair bumps off a neck line (1.4640) it will go towards an ascending red daily trend (1.4550) and on its braking will go at 1.4370. Strategically, if this situation develops, I expect the pair at 1.4200.

http://img223.imageshack.us/img223/5086/eurusdd1jw9.gif - daily



GBPUSD
The pair broke a neck line (2.0414) of a “head & shoulders” shape, then rapidly dropped down, but a week’s ascending red trend (2.0179) showed a resistance to this movement. Bumping off it can give the pair a chance to bottom-up testing of a neck line (2.0420), but in this case a descending 4-hours trend will most likely be broken and then the pair may rise to 2.0523 and higher. If tomorrow the descending movement will continue and a red trend will be broken, the pair’s target will be 2.0010 level. Strategically, the pair will be forced to drop to 1.9600.

http://img223.imageshack.us/img223/7724/gbpusdd1ki5.gif - daily
http://img223.imageshack.us/img223/7...dweeklyed5.gif - weekly



USDCHF
The pair broke the higher bound of a descending daily trend (1.1282) and now its target is 1.1680. But since the situation about the rest of pairs is rather uncertain, usd/chf also has possibility to go down ignoring the descending daily trend’s higher bound.
On a 4-hours graph the pair is in a side trend (blue). In the case of breaking of its lower bound (1.1168), the decrease to 1.1020 will occur.

http://img81.imageshack.us/img81/228/usdchfd1yz3.gif - daily



USDJPY
As supposed, the pair formed a “head & shoulders” shape, the neck line was broken and now the pair’s target is 113.48. But then again let’s take a look over other main pairs and not to be so sure, that this shape will work properly. If the neck line will be broken top-down (110.85), the pair will have a great chance to drop at 108.23.
http://img223.imageshack.us/img223/7824/usdjpyh4lx2.gif - H4
http://img70.imageshack.us/img70/9892/usdjpyd1by3.gif - daily

hefeiddd

Dollar growth is inevitable.



OIL
Dollar growth is inevitable. Primarily, we need to look at the oil graph as it shows more precise and global picture (it’s well-known that upon decrease of oil prices growth, dollar price rises). As the daily graph shows, an ascending daily trend was broken, after what a descending trend started forming. Also an ascending daily trend (blue) was falsely broken and the “diamond” shape at H4 graph had formed, which is already exhausted meaning the oil price growth at H4 comes to an end. If oil will manage to break this blue trend again, it will go down to support 89.50. If oil also overcomes this support, the target becomes 81.43 level.
http://img217.imageshack.us/img217/8814/oild1zz3.gif - D1
http://img62.imageshack.us/img62/8215/oilh4me2.gif - H4



Dollar index
http://img81.imageshack.us/img81/4509/dxyd1si9.gif - D1
http://img80.imageshack.us/img80/5293/dxyh4up3.gif - Н4



EURUSD
The daily graph shows that the pair is closed in the range between red and green ascending daily trends. I expect the red trend breaking and going down to the first target at 1.4371. My strategic target is 1.4200 (going down to the blue ascending trend), but again examining the pair behavior at 1.4371 is necessary.

At H4 graph the pair has a weak resistance at 1.4639 which is likely to collapse, but I’ll try to sell at it. I can’t see more exact resistances above, hence I won’t name the price. The pair trades in a descending trend, which is worth orienting to. Braking of this trend will put in doubt the pair’s willing to go down and in that case it has a good chance to grow to 1.4750. If the red trend (daily) will be repeatedly broken, the pair will head to the blue trend, and upon breaking it – to 1.4371. This course of events is the most probable due to pictures on oil, dollar index, gold and the rest main pairs.

http://img233.imageshack.us/img233/6307/eurh4uk4.gif - H4



GBPUSD
At D1 graph we were having a “head & shoulders” shape which was successfully ignored by the market, because a very strong trend emerged in its way.. The pair bounced off this trend on 390 pips – the red ascending trend from W1 graph. Its breaking opens the way of going down to 1.9855 for the pair

At H4 graph the ascending trend was broken and a slightly deformed “head & shoulders” shape is forming. This shape is formed with a very important rule violation, hence we need to be careful with its neck line braking, it may be false. Now the right shoulder is forming. Its forming can long until 2.0450, where a strong resistance in a form of neck line of the daily “head & shoulders” is situated. Also, the pair may not reach 2.0450, if the lower bound of an ascending trend manages to show a decent resistance. I expect the breaking of neck line, followed by the red trend breaking and I will head to the strategic target at 1.9850.

http://img233.imageshack.us/img233/3429/gbph4xd1.gif - H4
http://img223.imageshack.us/img223/7...dweeklyed5.gif - W1



USDCHF
At D1 the pair overcome all the resistances and has nothing else to do as go to 1.1679.

At H4 a “bull’s triangle” shape is formed, support at 1.1390.

http://img149.imageshack.us/img149/6871/chfh4tp7.gif - H4



GOLD
At D1 a “triangle” shape is formed, with breaking the lower bound of which the gold will go down to 746.00.

At H4 an ascending trend is broken, which opens the sure path of going down to the lower “triangle’s” boundary – 781.50.
Resistance is at 801.26. It may also be the lower bound of the ascending trend from H4 graph.

hefeiddd

24.12.07

Correction to come – dollar is in the fourth wave

General view
Main pairs have reached their target levels and now the 4th correction wave (by Elliot) is beginning.
It’s known that the 4th wave is the most complex and it can deliver surprises. This time won’t be exception. I’m being cautious about the fact that gold made a sudden leap towards rising of price while dollar was still – this is a signal of dollar’s drop. Also, swap trade has begun in cross pairs, causing repositioning of traders’ deals. That confirms the movement about gold. Hence, in my opinion, from the current 4th wave we may expect very sudden as well as very slow moves due to absence of powerful news (that are able to give impulse to the market) for over two weeks.



EURUSD
The pair is consolidating in “a-a+” channel, breaking of its upper bound will confirm the end of the 3rd descending wave and the beginning of the 4th ascending wave with target at 1.4525. A neck line of “head & shoulders” shape is at the same level. From 1.4525 I expect the pair to turn with a target of the 5th wave (1.4095). But before this level, at 1.4310, there is a very important trend “G” (upper bound of bull’s triangle), which is able to keep the pair from going down. If it manages to do so, strategically, I expect a serious correction to 1.4670 level (see weekly graph) followed by pair’s lowering to trend “H”, approximately to a level of the 39th shape (1.3900).
If the 4th wave won’t start, the pair will go down to 1.4210.

http://img412.imageshack.us/img412/9260/eurusdd1mm2.gif - D1
http://img147.imageshack.us/img147/6377/eurusdw1zf2.gif - weekly

Trading recommendations:
Buy 1.4424, target 1.4525, stop 1.4384.
Sell 1.4525, target 1.4210, stop 1.4565.



GBPUSD
The reason of stop in pair’s lowering is “G” trend from the weekly graph, and also the ending of the 3rd wave of the daily trend “C-C+”. Although rumor has it that pound is currently the most vulnerable pair, the analysis of the picture about EURGBP clearly negates this rumor.
Now the pair is being traded in a descending “a-a+” channel, breaking of its upper bound will confirm the end of the 3rd descending wave and the beginning of the 4th ascending wave with target at 2.0222. At the hour’s graph “double bottom” shape is forming based on 1.9892 level. On its breaking, the pair will tend to break the upper bound of “a-a+” trend. The target of the 4th wave is 2.0222 level, but there is a very important trend “E” before it, that is capable of keeping the pair from growing to 2.0222. It’s very probably that the growth will stop at 2.0115 level and the pair will forward to 1.9557 from it. That level is not the target of the 5th wave which is at 1.9229, but is rather a good support.

http://img147.imageshack.us/img147/583/gbpusdd1dj4.gif - D1
http://img147.imageshack.us/img147/1880/gbpusdw1cd7.gif - weekly

Trading recommendations:
Accumulative positions
1) Buy 1.9910, stop 1.9870, target 2.0115
2) Buy on breaking of the “a-a+” channel’s upper bound, stop 60 points, target 2.0115
From 2.0115 I will consider options to sell.



EURGBP
The pair has reached the target 0.7253 on the monthly “bull’s triangle” shape and now it is most likely to undergo a serious correction. On the weekly graph we see that the pair is in “E-E+” descending trend that should contain 5 ascending waves. On “C-C+” trend breaking the 3rd wave will finish and the 4th correction wave with 0.7062 target will start. The target of the 5th wave will be 0.7390. In favor of “C-C+” trend breaking speaks the side channel from the daily “K-K+” graph, and the “triple vertex” shape which has exhausted its growth potential. Analysis of the 4-hours graph shows that the ascending “a-a+” trend is just about to be broken and the pair will go down to the first support at 0.7172.
Such picture is in favor of deeper correction about GBPUSD pair and starting from it, the pair is quite capable of reaching 2.0222, having not bounced off 2.0115.
http://img147.imageshack.us/img147/9894/eurgbph4lg2.gif - H4
http://img147.imageshack.us/img147/3812/eurgbpd1rg9.gif - D1
http://img147.imageshack.us/img147/2982/eurgbpw1az9.gif - weekly
http://img100.imageshack.us/img100/3304/eurgbpmnqm9.gif - MN

Trading recommendations:
Sell 0.7223, intermediate target 0.7172, stop 0.7248.



USDCHF
The pair consolidates in “a-a+” channel, breaking of its upper bound will confirm the end of the 3rd descending wave and the beginning of the 4th ascending wave with a target at 1.1432 – 1.1372. The target of the 5th wave is 1.1862.

http://img134.imageshack.us/img134/7411/usdchfd1sb0.gif - D1
http://img100.imageshack.us/img100/6453/usdchfw1cz8.gif - weekly

Trading recommendations:
Sell 1.1485, target 1.1400, stop 1.1525
I will consider buying later from 1.1372.



USDJPY
Contrary to main dollar pairs, I see JPY reducing versus dollar. Possibly, this is caused by a swap trade mentioned earlier in the general view at the market, but technically such picture is being drawn unambiguously.
The pair has broken the descending weekly “E-E+” trend, breaking of which gives the target of growth at 116.05 and, strategic, at 120.55 (possibly unreal). If pair manages to break the “F” trend, the growth will continue to 116.05, wherefrom the correction to 113.95 is possible in future. Breaking of the side “a-a+” trend amplifies the potential of breaking the “F” trend and gives the pair an ascending impulse.

http://img502.imageshack.us/my.php?i...sdjpyd1pz9.gif - D1



Dollar index
The picture I see about it is not as clear as about the pairs listed above, but still I see something.
Index is set against the weekly “E” trend, which shows a resistance. On breaking of the side “a-a+” trend the ascending impulse will fade out and the index will go down to 76.32 or bounce off the “C” trend.
http://img523.imageshack.us/img523/233/dxyh4wq1.gif - H4
http://img502.imageshack.us/img502/3372/dxyd1fd4.gif -D1



GOLD
On the daily graph gold is in “triangle” shape (“E-E+”), and in that triangle there is a 4-hour triangle (“C-C+”) which had been broken last week. Its breaking opens to gold an opportunity of growth to target level of 814.47, from which (with “a-a+” trend breaking) I expect a drop to the daily triangle’s lower bound, “E” trend (785.50).
http://img229.imageshack.us/img229/6812/goldgp3.gif - H4-D1



Oil
In my previous forecast I wrote that the growth from 89.30 level is possible, and so it happened. Now I expect oil at 96.099. Approximately from this level (with breaking of the ascending “a-a+” trend) the descending trend with target at 81.43 should start.
http://img523.imageshack.us/img523/251/oilh4im4.gif - H4
http://img295.imageshack.us/img295/4888/oild1kk9.gif - D1

hefeiddd

EURUSD

http://img341.imageshack.us/img341/6137/eurusdh4my9.gif - D1


1) sell by market, stop 1.4735, target 1.4505/1.4405
2) sell 1.4605, stop 1.4650, target 1.4505/1.4405



GBPUSD
http://img341.imageshack.us/img341/6195/gbpusdh4vg1.gif - H4




USDCHF


http://img72.imageshack.us/img72/6769/usdchfd1lt2.gif - D1


buy 1.1215, stop 1.1270, target 1.1508



USDJPY


http://img341.imageshack.us/img341/6529/usdjpyd1jv2.gif - D1


buy 109.75, stop 109.30, target 113.30




GOLD


http://img296.imageshack.us/img296/4532/goldh1se9.gif - H1
http://img185.imageshack.us/img185/1723/goldd1uu8.gif - D1

1) sell by market, stop 866.50, target 821.29
2) sell by draw «a-a+» channel, stop 70-90 pips, target 821.29




07.01.08


EURUSD


http://img511.imageshack.us/img511/1139/eurusdd1qj0.gif - D1




GBPUSD

http://img229.imageshack.us/img229/4737/gbpusdd1cv9.gif - D1




USDCHF


http://img184.imageshack.us/img184/8306/usdchfd1vj0.gif - D1




USDJPY


http://img511.imageshack.us/img511/3020/usdjpyd1dn7.gif - D1




GOLD


http://img110.imageshack.us/img110/6250/goldd1po1.gif - D1




Light sweet crude oil


http://img102.imageshack.us/img102/9426/oild1if0.gif - D1

hefeiddd

January 27, 2008


General view
A high volatility is observed at the market. Bears’ optimism about dollar is inspired by: the growth of EURUSD by 400 points since January 22 during two days; an update of Gold’s peaks and the sudden turn of the ascending trend of dollar index. But then again, a close look shows that dollar should start growing on Monday. For example, in EURUSD I expect such targets: 1.4542 (minimally), then 1.4445 and further to 1.4300. In USDCHF: 1.1310. In GOLD: 869 (minimally), 856 and 838. Meanwhile, dollar index will rise to 76.83 and 77.15.



EURUSD
The daily and 4-hour graphs show that the pair bumped off the lower bound of a “double top” (“D-D+”) shape. This circumstance determines the development of further descending to 1.4525 target minimally. If this level won’t offer a strong support (what is unlikely to happen) the pair will go down to 1.4445. If 1.4542 will offer support, a “head & shoulders” shape will be formed on H4; the right shoulder of this shape will end at ~1.4655, with bumping off it and breaking the neck line. After that, for the forming of a proper descending trend, the pair will need to update 1.4363, what will lead to breaking of the “E-E+” weekly ascending trend. Breaking of such an important trend will entail the continuation of pair’s dropping to the weekly ascending trend (the higher bound of a “bull’s triangle”) “G”, the 1.4300 level.

http://img101.imageshack.us/img101/2086/eurusdd1sh8.gif - D1
http://img258.imageshack.us/img258/7624/eurusdw1pl8.gif - W1



GBPUSD
I don’t develop certain trading tactics for this pair because it is now in a heavy influence of EURGPB, which started to drop again with 0.7340 target. Due to the fact that GPB is not a very strong currency at the moment, the GBPUSD pair will move opposite to the general tendency of market’s behavior. Or it will often pass false levels, what can lead to stops’ activation in different directions. I have determined the range of pair’s free movement: 1.9665 – 1.9890. In the case of breaking the level 1.9890 (trend C+), I think there is a good chance for going up to 2.0120, if EURGBP will continue to drop and will have the potential of further lowering.
http://img115.imageshack.us/img115/1851/gbpusdh4yh1.gif - H4
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/8669/gbpusdd1lx3.gif - D1



USDCHF
The pair bumped off a very strong trend line. I consider the ascending movement as a main one. I expect the breaking of “F” trend (1.1085) followed by further growth with a target 1.1310.

http://img503.imageshack.us/img503/8440/usdchfd1mg2.gif - D1



USDJPY
I expect an ascending movement, if the higher bound of an H4 channel “a-a+” won’t be broken bottom-up like “b-b+” trend. Starting from “a+” trend the buying is acceptable. The first target is 109.40, after which the 111.30 level is possible.

http://img101.imageshack.us/img101/2108/usdjpyd1ia8.gif - D1



DXY
Breaking of a daily “C-C+” channel determines the formation of an ascending daily trend. Breaking of an H4 trend “a-a+” confirms the ascending intentions of the market. The first target is 76.83, the next is 77.15.
http://img263.imageshack.us/img263/6415/dxyh4zr3.gif - H4
http://img503.imageshack.us/img503/6768/dxyd1wd9.gif - D1



GOLD
Maximums have been updated again. Looking the picture about GOLD parallel to DXY and EURUSD pair, the conclusion is clear that gold won’t be able to grow further, because the dollar will start to grow from now on. On the H4 graph the ascending “a-a+” trend was broken, what is a first embryo of a descending trend. In the case of breaking the “b-b+” side trend, the certain descending trend will start with the first target of 869.78. If this level won’t offer a strong support, the descending movement will continue to 856 minimally.
On H4 just like on D1 we see the forming of a “double top” shape (C-C+); breaking of its lower bound “C” (856) opens the path of dropping to the lower bound of the weekly ascending trend “D-D+”, trend “D” (838).

http://img529.imageshack.us/img529/4337/goldd1bo6.gif - D1



Have a good trade, everyone!
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FOREXMILLION - forex forecast, forex trading signals



03.02.08


EURUSD







GBPUSD






USDCHF






GOLD





more charts you can see here
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hefeiddd

04.02.08

General view
EURUSD is now the pair that sets the fashion at the market, at the daily graph it is situated within a fixed range (“triangle” shape). Development of dollar’s situation will depend on EURUSD variants: whether it will be able to break the higher bound of a shape, or it will remain within the range, being corrected in the 5th wave of a shape to its lower bound “M” – 1.4420 level. But dollar growth is being supported not only by the 5th wave of triangle over EURUSD but also by GOLD, which is now in “Wolf waves” model, bounced off the 5th wave and forwarding to the 6th (850.90). In fact, gold is also in a turned “double top” shape and its lower bound – the support – is at 871.07. If it will be broken GOLD will descend not only to the 6th Wolf wave, but further to the target level 821.29, meaning that at that time EURUSD pair will have to break “triangle” shape and then we would expect going down to 1.3740, and therefore a serious strengthening of dollar.



EURUSD

At the daily graph the pair is situated within a fixed range of “triangle” shape. Upon bouncing off its higher bound “M+” the descending 5th internal wave of the shape is developing now with the target 1.4420. But I consider such variant only in the case if the trend line “b” will be broken, because the pair continues growing efforts and the descending impulse isn’t that strong.
While the pair is situated below “a-a+” trend and “M+” trend line (the lower bound of the “triangle” shape) the descending tendency remains. There are 2 resistances at the moment: 1.4840 and the key 1.4875 – one of these will stop the ascending correction. I advise to sell upon breaking of “b” trend line with a target 1.4667 at least. Strategically, I will try hard to grow positions to sell with a target 1.4420.
D1 graph



At the daily graph the pair is situated within a fixed range of “triangle” shape. Upon bouncing off its higher bound “M+” the descending 5th internal wave of the shape is developing now with the target 1.4420. If the higher bound “M+” will be broken, the pair will look forward to 1.5550 level. If the lower bound “M” will be broken, then to 1.3740. Dollar situation depends on the direction in which “triangle” shape will be broken.




GBPUSD

The pair found its support at 1.9663 and started the ascending correction, which was caused also by descending tendencies over EURGBP. Ascending correction may last until the resistance 1.9868. In the perspective I expect the pair at 1.9396 minimally. But at the moment GBP is a very weak currency and I don’t expect the strict execution of a technical picture from it; that’s why I won’t enter the market with this pair, and I advise the same to you. See also the EURGBP forecast. The resistance is currently at 0.7517.






USDCHF

Although upon breaking “a-a+” descending trend an ascending trend should start, at H1 a turned “double top” shape has formed. It may force the pair to go down to 1.0810 support, after what the ascending movement will continue at least to the 1.0991 resistance, and strategically to 1.1290 level. Also there is a support at 1.0868 (I forgot to mark it on the graph).
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH...sdchf%20h4.gif - H4
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH...sdchf%20d1.gif - D1



GOLD

At D1 graph gold is now in “Wolf waves” model, bounced off the 5th wave and forwarding to the 6th (850.90). In fact, gold is also in a turned “double top” shape and its lower bound – the support – is at 871.07. If it will be broken GOLD will descend not only to the 6th Wolf wave, but further to the target level 821.29.
The targets are certainly cheerful but at the moment gold laid down a correction to 922.49 level, due to the fact that at H1 graph a turned “double bottom” shape has formed, upon breaking its higher bound (“a+”) the correction will surely start.
Also D1 is closed by “dodji” candle, which implies correction by itself.
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPHS/04_02_08/gold%20h1.gif - H1
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH.../gold%20h4.gif - H4
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH.../gold%20d1.gif - D1
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FOREXMILLION - forex forecast, forex trading signals



EURUSD









USDCHF






USDJPY






Dollar index

http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH...2/dxy%20h4.gif
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hefeiddd

11.02.08


General wiev
This week (11-15.02.08) possible either continuing trend toward consolidation of the dollar or some correction. The last week the pair EUR/USD has been in the «triangle» formation and still will be there some time. The GOLD has formed turn around formation «head & shoulders» and looks like this week its «neck line» will be broken, in this case the GOLD will drop up to 851$ and of course this will be in favor of a dollar.

The correction of the dollar is more possible then its growth starting Monday, but in the long term the dollar will continue growth, this is why who has long term positions to buy a dollar I suggest continue to keep them open.



EURUSD




USDCHF




USDJPY




GOLD




Dollra index (DXY)
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH...2/dxy%20h4.gif - H4
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FOREXMILLION - forex forecast, forex trading signals


(15.02.08)


General view
The market is correcting. The data of “USA Trade balance” was released on Thursday, it turned out much better than it was predicted (–58.8 versus –61.8 forecast) and so most traders expected a vivid movement at the market right at this day, especially taking into account the release of such a good index. However, there was no luck, the movement was suspended after Ben Bernanke’s speech. But that’s the way it’s meant to be, the market can’t move in a single day in the direction of released news, traders should never run out of questions. That’s why a vivid movement will occur on Friday, after the news release, and it will be in favor of dollar.




EURUSD
The pair’s correction continues. On the 4-hours graph an ascending Elliot’s five-waves curve formed, with a final 5th wave at 1.4655 level. From that level I expect the correction’s completion and the beginning of a descending trend with a target at the lower bound of the “triangle” shape (M) on D1 to 1.4430 level, and further to trend line “G”, 1.4270 level. Breaking of “a-a+” trend will be a confirmation of descending movement’s beginning. On this day (Friday) TICS indicator, a very important indicator for USA, is released. I expect the development of such scenario on this day.


Daily
At the daily graph the pair is situated within a fixed range of “triangle” shape. Upon bouncing off its higher bound “M+” the descending 5th internal wave of the shape is developing now with the target 1.4420. If the higher bound “M+” will be broken, the pair will look forward to 1.5550 level. If the lower bound “M” will be broken, then to 1.3740. Dollar situation depends on the direction in which “triangle” shape will be broken.
http://www.forexmillion.com/images/G...urusd%20d1.gif -daily
http://www.forexmillion.com/images/G...urusd%20w1.gif - weekly




GBPUSD
D1 graph shows that the pair is being locked in a range. There’s nothing remarkable happening on H4 graph, except indicators saying that it is time for “a-a+” trend to be broken downwards. Upon its breaking the pair will start a descending movement to specified targets.

http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH...bpusd%20d1.gif - D1
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH...bpusd%20w1.gif - weekly




USDCHF
The pair has a strongly pronounced side trend. It should find the support upon touching the black dotted trend line, then it should forward to resistance at 1.1105. Only breaking of this resistance will confirm the pair’s leaving the range and moving towards target 1.1270.

http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH...sdchf%20d1.gif - daily
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH...sdchf%20w1.gif - weekly




USDJPY
The picture about the pair is turning out neatly from previous forecast: from support 106.63 it went up and broke the “triangle” shape. With its breaking two targets opened: 109.36 and 110.57 – the pair is on its way to them. There’s a possibility of return to the higher bound of “triangle”, level 107.60, from which an ascending movement to specified targets will recommence.

http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH...sdjpy%20d1.gif - daily



GOLD
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH.../gold%20h4.gif - H4
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH.../gold%20d1.gif - daily
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hefeiddd

18.02.08

I am sorry for a delay, there were problems with the internet


General view
It seemed that the last week behaved in such a way that should cause the dollar to continue its weakening. But as I repeatedly stated in my previous forecasts, that was nothing but a correction and the dollar will continue its growth as early as the European session opens on Monday. To tell the truth, dollar against euro will grow not as fast as against GBPUSD. This is caused by the picture over EURGBP: the pair intends to break the “triangle” shape at the daily graph and to go up to the level 0.7770. Gold with LS crude oil unambiguously show the descending movement, which is also in favor of dollar



EURUSD

H4
The pair is being traded in “a-a+” ascending correction channel. Bounce off the “X” trend line implies correction’s completion and, upon breaking the lower bound of “a-a+” trend, the beginning of a descending trend towards “M” trend line (the lower bound of the “triangle” shape). 1.4515 is the level of a minor resistance.


Daily
The pair is being traded within the “triangle” shape (“M-M+” channel), I expect its breaking downwards (breaking of “M” trend line). It’s clearly seen by looking through the candles that the current ascending movement from “Y” trend line is correctional. Bounce off “X” trend line implies correction’s completion and the beginning of a descending trend to “M” trend line (1.4430), and upon its breaking, to trend lines “W” and “Q” (1.4290).


Weekly
Owing to the support from the “Q” trend line, the “triangle” shape has been formed (“M-M+” channel). Its lower bound “M” has to be broken, leading to the breaking of “E-E+” ascending trend and the movement towards “N” trend line (1.34/1.33).
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH...d%20weekly.gif - weekly

Monthly
The pair is over “Q” trend line, which, having offered support to the pair, gave a possibility for a turned “triangle” shape to be formed at the Weekly graph. Starting from the fact that at the Weekly graph a turned “triangle” shape has formed, and it has to be broken downwards, “E-E+” ascending trend will be broken also downwards and the pair will forward to “N” trend line (1.34/1.33). A correction to levels 1.42/1.43 is possible from this trend line. Further the descending movement will be amplified by relatively fine formed “double top” turned shape (“G-G+” channel). If this shape (“G” trend line) will be broken, EURUSD will go down to 1.1900.
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH...%20monthly.gif - monthly



GBPUSD

H4
“a-a+” ascending correction trend was broken, so now the pair is on its way down to trend lines “N” and “Y” (1.9430).


Daily
The bounce off the higher bound of “C-C+ descending trend confirms the pair’s intentions to break “N” trend line and to continue the descending movement with the target 1.9076.


Weekly
The breaking of the lower bound of “E-E+” ascending trend implies breaking of the red “N” trend line and reaching the lower bound of “G-G+” channel (turned “double top” shape), the level 1.84/1.85.
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH...d%20weekly.gif - weekly

Monthly
A turned “Wolf waves” model was formed (bounce off the 5th wave) with the target 1.7145. The breaking of the black “E-E+” ascending trend confirmed this model and the pair’s intentions to break “N” trend, as well as the lower bound of the turned “double top” shape (1.84/1.85), upon breaking of which the target of the 6th Wolf’s wave, the level 1.7145, will be reached.
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH...%20monthly.gif - monthly



USDCHF

Í4
The breaking of “R” trend line (1.1090) will open the road of growth to the target 1.1270.
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH...sdchf%20h4.gif - h4
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH...hf%20daily.gif - daily



USDJPY

Í4
The pair has broken the “triangle” shape. Although it wasn’t really straight, nevertheless the breaking of this shape is a signal to the beginning of an ascending trend. “Y” trend line can offer some resistance, but the pair is aimed at the level 109.36.
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH...sdjpy%20h4.gif - h4

Daily
The breaking of “C-C+” trend assumes the movement from “E+” trend line to 111.00.
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH...py%20daily.gif - daily

Weekly
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH...y%20weekly.gif - weekly

Monthly
The pair is being traded within a triangle. The level 106.20 is a very strong support, I expect the movement from it to 115.85.
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH...%20monthly.gif - monthly



GOLD

Í4
The “triangle” shape is formed with “R-R+” bounds. The breaking of “R” trend line together with “Y” opens the road of lowering towards “E” trend line – the lower bound of the ascending weekly trend.
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH.../gold%20h4.gif - h4

Daily
The turned “Wolf waves” model is formed with the target $860-870. The breaking of “Y” trend line will confirm the model and intentions of the descending movement. Upon breaking of the lower bound of “E-E+” ascending trend (which is supposed to happen) the pair will go down to the level $800.
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH...ld%20daily.gif - daily



EURGBP
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH...urgbp%20h4.gif - H4
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH...bp%20daily.gif - daily



LS Crude oil

Í4
The bounce off “X” trend line occurred, what assumes the breaking of the lower bound of “a-a+” ascending correction trend and the movement towards the lower bound of “C-C+” channel ($89). The breaking of “C” trend will give the pair a chance to go down to “Z” trend line ($85-56).
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH...20oil%20h4.gif - h4

Daily
We could suppose that the “double bottom” shape was formed, but it is impossible during the correction. That’s why I consider the bounce off “X” trend line as a sign of turn. From this trend line I expect lowering to “Z” trend line ($85-86).
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH...il%20daily.gif - daily
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hefeiddd

EURUSD
H4 forecast
1) Ascending trend, target of movement 1.5310
2) if the pair won't be able to go up than level 1.5150, then level 1.5010 and 1.4950 will become its target. And if the pair won't be able to go down than level 1.4950, then level 1.5310 will become its target
Cancellation of the scenario 2, if the pair will be able to go down 1.4950
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH...20forecast.gif

Daily forecast
1) Ascending trend, target of movement 1.5520
2) if the pair won't be able to go up than level 1.5310, then level 1.4950 will become its target. And if the pair won't be able to go down than level 1.4950, then level 1.5520 will become its target
Cancellation of the scenario 2, if the pair will be able to go down 1.4950




GBPUSD
H4 forecast
1) Ascending trend, target of movement 2.0133
2) if the pair won't be able to go up than level 1.9875, then level 1.9690 - 1.9630 will become its target. And if the pair won't be able to go down than level 1.9610, then level 1.9825 and 2.0133 will become its target
Cancellation of the scenario 2, if the pair will be able to go down 1.9610
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH...20forecast.gif

Daily forecast
1) Ascending trend, target of movement 2.0133
2) if the pair won't be able to go up than level 1.9875, then level 1.9690 - 1.9630 will become its target. And if the pair won't be able to go down than level 1.9610, then level 1.9825 and 2.0133 will become its target
Cancellation of the scenario 2, if the pair will be able to go down 1.9610




USDCHF
H4 forecast
Descending trend, target of movement 1.0415
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH...20forecast.gif

Daily forecast
1) Descending trend, target of movement 1.0240
2) if the pair won't be able to go down than level 1.0415, then level 1.0630 will become its target. And if the pair won't be able to go higer than level 1.0630, then level 1.0240 will become its target
Cancellation of the scenario 2, if the pair will be able to go higer 1.0630




USDJPY
1) Descending trend, target of movement 105.60 (102.00)
2) ...
3) if the pair won't be able to go down than level 105.60, then level 107.10 will become its target. And if the pair won't be able to go higer than level 107.70, then level 102.00 will become its target


http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH...20forecast.gif - monthly



GOLD
1) Ascending trend, target of movement unknown
2) if the pair won't be able to go up than level 967, then level 917 will become its target
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH...20forecast.gif - H4
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hefeiddd

GBPUSD

H4 forecast
1) Ascending trend, target of movement 2.0133
2) if the pair will broke the level 1.9940, then level 2.0133 will become its target
Cancellation of the scenario 2, if the pair will be able to go down 1.9880
3) if the pair will broke the level 1.9875, then level 1.9690 - 1.9630 will become its target. And if the pair won't be able to go down than level 1.9780, then level 1.9630 will become its target
Cancellation of the scenario 3, if the pair will be able to go down 1.9610

Trade signals:
buy stop 1.9940, stop loss 1.9880, take profit 2.0110
sell stop 1.9780, stop loss 1.9825, take profit 1.9645



Daily forecast
1) Ascending trend, target of movement 2.0133
2) if the pair won't be able to go up than level 1.9940, then level 1.9630 will become its target. And if the pair won't be able to go down than level 1.9610, then level 2.0133 and will become its target
Cancellation of the scenario 2, if the pair will be able to go down 1.9610

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EUR/USD

H4 forecast
1) Ascending trend, target of movement 1.5520
2) Ascending trend with support on 1.5235, target of movement 1.5520

Trade signals:
1) buy market, but not higher then 1.5280, stop loss 1.5175, take profit 1.5485
2) buy limit 1.5248, stop loss 1.5175, take profit 1.5485
3) buy stop 1.5360, stop loss 1.5255, take profit 1.5485
(updated 06.03.08, 00:42 by GMT)




Daily forecast
1) Ascending trend, target of movement 1.5520
Daily graph




GBP/USD

H4 forecast
1) Ascending trend, target of movement 2.0133
2) Ascending trend with support on 1.9835, target of movement 2.0133

Trade signals:
buy limit 1.9852, stop loss 1.9780, take profit 2.0100
(updated 06.03.08, 01:07 by GMT)




Daily forecast
Ascending trend, target of movement 2.0133
Daily graph



USD/CHF

H4 forecast
1) Descending trend, target of movement 1.0140
2) Descending trend with resistance on 1.0505, target of movement 1.0140
Cancellation of the scenario 2 if the pair will go up higher then level 1.0525




Daily forecast
Descending trend, target of movement 1.0140
Daily graph



USD/JPY

H4 forecast
Descending trend with resistance on 104.75, target of movement 102.00




Monthly forecast
Descending trend with resistance on 104.75, target of movement 102.00
Monthly graph
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hefeiddd

EUR/USD

H4 forecast
Ascending trend, but there are some signs of trend turn:
1) if the channel "C-C+" will be broken through, then level 1.4955 will become target

2) if the pair won't be able to go down lower then level 1.4910, then level 1.5580 will become its target
cancelation this scenarion if will be able to go down lower then level 1.4910

3) if the pair will be able to go down lower then level 1.4910, then level 1.4650 will become its target
cancelation this scenario, if after passing level 1.4910 the pair will be able to go up higher then level 1.4985



Daily
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH...08/eu%20d1.gif




GBP/USD

H4 forecast
Ascending trend, but there are some signs of trend turn:
1) if the channel "C-C+" will be broken through, then level 1.9630 will become target

2) if the pair won't be able to go down lower then level 1.9600, then level 2.0555 will become its target
cancelation this scenarion if will be able to go down lower then level 1.9600

3) if the pair will be able to go down lower then level 1.9600, then level 1.9400 will become its target
cancelation this scenario, if after passing level 1.9600 the pair will be able to go up higher then level 1.9660



Daily
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH...08/gu%20d1.gif



USD/CHF

H4 forecast
Descending trend, but there are some signs of trend turn:
1) if the channel "C-C+" will be broken through, then level 1.0620 will become target

2) if the pair won't be able to go up higher then level 1.0670, then level 1.0000 will become its target
cancelation this scenarion if will be able to go up higher then level 1.0670

3) if the pair will be able to go up higher then level 1.0670, then level 1.0830 will become its target
cancelation this scenario, if after passing level 1.0670 the pair will be able to go down lower then level 1.0580



Daily
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH...08/uc%20d1.gif



USD/JPY

H4 forecast
Descending trend, but there are some signs of trend turn
if the channel "C-C+" will be broken through, then level 106.60 will become target



Daily
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH...08/uj%20d1.gif



GOLD

Ascending trend, but there are some signs of trend turn
if the channel "C-C+" will be broken through, then level 1.9630 will become target 917.15
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH..._08/g%20h4.gif
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EUR/USD

H4 forecast
Ascending trend, all aims are attained. There are some signs of trend turn and I wait it.

Variants of events' development that take effect if:
If daily ascending trend will be broken, the pair will go to the level 1.5120

Trade signals:
1) sell stop 1.5675, stop loss 1.5785, take profit 1.5150
2) sell stop 1.5530, stop loss 1.5615, take profit 1.5150





GBP/USD

H4 forecast
Decending trend.

Trade signals:
sell limit 2.0026, stop loss 2.0125, take profit 1.9660





USD/CHF

H4 forecast
Descending trend, all aims are attained. There are some signs of trend turn and I wait it.

Variants of events' development that take effect if:
If descending daily trend will be broken upwards, the pair will go to the level 1.0555

Trade signals:
1) buy stop 0.9917, stop loss 0.9848, take profit 1.0525
2) buy stop 1.0080, stop loss 0.9990, take profit 1.0525





USD/JPY

H4 forecast

Variants of events' development that take effect if:
If H4 trend "B-B+" will be broken upwards, then the pair will go to the trend line "C+". If "C+" will be broken upwards, then the pair will go to the level 101.85





GOLD

H4 forecast
Ascending trend, all aims are attained. There are some signs of trend turn and I wait it.

Variants of events' development that take effect if:

Trade signals:
1) sell limit 1001, stop loss 1013, take profit 927.00
2) sell stop 981. 50, stop loss 995.00, take profit 928.00
pips account by trade signals of murch: +120

H4 graph
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hefeiddd

EUR/USD

H4 forecast
1) main trend is descending with target 1.5120
2) the pair can go on correction, on the level 1.5615 (resistance). After that the level 1.5120 will become its target





GBP/USD

H4 forecast
Decending trend with target 1.9630/1.9440, resistance 1.9970




USD/CHF

H4 forecast
1) the main trend is ascending with target 1.0555
2) in case of correction the level 0.9990 will become it's target and after that the level 1.0555 will become it's target




USD/JPY

H4 forecast
1) if "triangle" will be broken through upwards, then level 102.82 (as minimum) will become the pair target
2) if "triangle" will be broken through downward, then level 96.12 will become the pair target


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EURUSD

h4 forecast



Daily forecast





GBPUSD

h4 forecast



Daily forecast

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hefeiddd

EURUSD

h4



Daily





GBPUSD

h4



Daily

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EURUSD


http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPHS/08_04_08/euh4.gif - daily



GBPUSD


http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPHS/08_04_08/gud1.gif - daily



USDCHF


http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPHS/08_04_08/ucd1.gif - daily



USDJPY


http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPHS/08_04_08/ujd1.gif - daily



GOLD

http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPHS/08_04_08/gh4.gif - H4
http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPHS/08_04_08/gd1.gif - daily
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hefeiddd

EURUSD
H4 forecast
Descending trend, target of movement 1.3438, resistance 1.4045 and 1.4192.



GBPUSD
H4 forecast
Descending trend, target of movement 1.4680, resistance 1.5207.



USDCHF
H4 forecast
Ascending trend, target of movement 1.1536, support 1.1000 and 1.0838.



GOLD
H4 forecast
Descending trend, target of movement 771.09, resistance 854.00

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EUR/USD
Side trend.
Variants of events' development that take effect if:
1. if the pair will go down lower than trend line "X", the pair will go down lower than level 1.3800, then the levels 1.3838 and 1.2950 will become its target.
- cancellation of the scenario if after passing level 1.3800, the pair will go up to level 1.3900.
2 -/-
3. if trend line "Y" will be passing up, the level 1.4935 will become its target.
- cancellation of the scenario if after passing trend line "Y" the pair will go down then trend line "Y".





USD/CHF forecast
Ascenfing trend.
Variants of events' development that take effect if:
1. if the pair will go higer than trend line "B+", then trend line "E+" will become its target. If trend line "E+" will be broken through upwards, then level 1.1720 will become its target.
- cancellation of the scenario if after passing upwards of trend line "E+", the pair will go downward then trend line "E+".
2. -/-





GOLD forecast
Side trend, there are some signs of down trend.
If trend line "C+" will be broken through downward, then trend line "E" will be achieved, level ~830.00. If trend line "E" wil be broken through downward also, then trend line "B" will become its target, level 807.00. And if trend line "B" also will be broken through downwards, then level 750.94 will become its target.
- cancellation of the scenario if after passing trend line "E" downward, the pair will be broken through her upwards.


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hefeiddd

EUR/USD forecast

H4 graph


Daily graph




GBP/USD forecast

H4 graph




USD/CHF forecast

H4 graph


Daily graph




GOLD forecast

H4 graph


Daily graph

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hefeiddd

EURUSD

H4 graph




GBPUSD

H4 graph




USDCHF

H4 graph




GOLD

H4 graph

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EUR/USD

H4 graph
The pair has reached the target level and a very strong support (1.2830) on the daily graph. For this reason I expect changing in
trends "а-а+" and "В-В+". In the case of breaking the "double bottom" figure (e-e+), the path will be clear for breaking "a-a+" descending
trend, breaking of which in its turn will clear the path for breaking "B-B+" trend and reaching the target of 1.3485.
Current support is 1.2910.





GBP/USD

H4 graph
I expect turning of the trend. In the case of trend "e-e+" breaking, level 1.4220 is to be reached.





USD/CHF

H4 graph
There are signs of the trend's change. Now I'm expecting a contact with "а-а+" trend's lower bound, and reaching 1.1115 level upon its breaking.





GOLD

H4 graph
The target is $912.


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hefeiddd

EUR/USD

H4 graph
Breaking of "a-a+" channel has granted a possibility of breaking "B-B+" trend and the growth to target levels 1.3485 - 1.3645. After "G" trend (1.3300 level) had been reached, the pair bounced off and began the correction. At this moment there are two variants of events to develop:
1. The pair will continue to grow with a target of 1.3485 from current levels, or;
2. The pair will go down to a gathering of supports 1.3015 - 1.3087 and will continue to grow with a target of 1.3485 from there, repeatedly breaking "B-B+" trend and trend line "G" bottom-up.




GBP/USD

H4 graph
Breaking of "a-a+" trend has cleared the way for testing "C" trend line (1.4220), then a bounce off it together with a minor correction occurred. While the pair remains above "a-a+" trend I'm expecting a repeated testing of "C" trend line with subsequent breaking of it and reaching the target of 1.4692. In the case of correction's extension the pair may go down to 1.3858 level and continue to grow from there with targets stated above. 1.4050 level is also a heavy support, so if the ascending impulse will be strong enough, this support is entirely sufficient for maintaining the pair's growth.




USD/CHF

H4 graph
Breaking of "a-a+" trend has cleared the way for dropping to target level of 1.1115. Two levels of resistance have been formed: 1.1410 and 1.1500. In the case of correction's extension I expect a bounce off one of these levels and a continuation of the descending trend with a target of 1.1115.


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EUR/USD

H4 graph
Breaking through "а-а+" trend grants a possibility of testing the higher bound of "В-В+" trend, level 1.3270.
This scenario is cancelled if the pair goes below level l.2790.





GBP/USD

H4 graph
The pair has reached the higher bound of "В-В+" trend, and in case of its breaking "С+" trend line (level 1.4785) will be reached next. There is some resistance at 1.4675 which is capable of holding up an ascending impulse.
This scenario is cancelled if the pair will manage to drop below level 1.4370 after breaking "В+" trend line.






USD/CHF

H4 graph
Breaking of "а-а+" trend has cleared the way for reaching the lower bound of "В-В+" trend and breaking through it afterwards. Now the pair has a reaching target of level 1.1235 or even 1.0855 (this will be discussed a little later). "Х" trend line has an opportunity to provide a short-term support for the pair.
This scenario is cancelled if the pair manages to rise above level 1.1525.


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hefeiddd

EUR/USD

H4 graph
H4 graph
Until ECB rates will be published tomorrow, the market is still staying in a side trend and has formed a "triangle" figure. Although I have a lot of strong resistances (1.2830, 1.2790) below and the picture on the daily graph is being built upwards, due to the fact that a "triangle" is formed I should also consider a possibility of developing the picture downwards, because the market's tone will define the side of the figure to which it will be broken.
That’s why there are two variants of events development for tomorrow (if the figure will have been broken after ECB rates publication) and for Friday (if the figure will have been broken after USA TICS rates publication - employment outside the agriculture):
1. If the figure will be broken upwards, the pair will reach "B+" trend line (1.3250), and upon its breaking the pair will aim at the target level 1.3820.
2. If the figure will be broken downwards, the pair will reach the target of 1.2260 and probably go lower.






GBP/USD

H4 graph
The pair has broken an important descending trend "B-B+", telling about the market’s intention to go up. Meanwhile a "diamond" figure has been formed, which is holding the pair within. Again, the market needs publication of the news to gain an incentive to move. In presence of this figure just like in eur/usd we should consider market’s movement both upwards and downwards, so:
1. If the figure will be broken upwards, "C+" trend line (1.4760) will be the target, then 1.5000 and higher upon its breaking.
2. If the figure will be broken downwards, 1.3780 will be the target.






USD/CHF

H4 graph
A "triangle" figure has been formed just like in eur/usd. I have a lot of resistances above, and the daily graph is telling about heading down tendency, but we need look at which side the figure will be broken through.
1. In the case of breaking the figure downwards, the pair goes to 1.1034 level.
2. On breaking upwards, the pair goes to 1.2065 level.


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EUR/USD

H4 graph
The pair has broken the "diamond" figure ("triangle" figure of the previous forecast - "E-E+" and now it's aimed at "В+" trend line, 1.3220 level, which is the target of the pair. Next, the pair will reach the target of 1.2760 - 1.3800 in the case of "B+" trend line breaking, but first it will need to overcome the resistance at 1.3300. The target of the "diamond" figure lies above 1.3300 level, thus the pair will get over it. The support is currently at 1.2950. Important news - Bernanke's speech is to be released on Tuesday and USA trading balance is to be released on Wednesday. If the market turns inert before those news are published, then there will be a reviving along with extension of the descending trend in USD.






GBP/USD

H4 graph
As supposed, the pair had broken the "diamond" figure upwards, it approached "C+" trend line (marked blue in the previous forecast, now it's marked red), 1.4760 level, which eventually has been broken by the pair afterwards. The resistance at the moment is "D+" trend line – the higher bound of the side trend from the daily graph. Returning to the support at 1.4760 is possible now, but after that I'm expecting extension of the ascending trend. Upon "D+" trend line breaking and passing 1.5000 level, the pair will move towards 1.5450, it's a good chance to happen tomorrow.






USD/CHF

H4 graph
The pair is in "E-E+" side trend, upon breaking of which ("E+" trend line), it will move towards "K" trend line, 1.3000 level, and possibly towards 1.2000. Resistance is at 1.1655, but there is a chance that the pair's correction will occur a little higher. The ascending correction was provoked by "R" trend line. I'm expecting "E" trend line's breaking and reaching the target of 1.3000 - 1.2000.
Breaking of "triangle" figure was supposed to go downwards as well as upwards in the previous forecast. Eventually the figure had been broken upwards, but that was a false breaking, due to the fact that it was not supported either by eur/usd, or by gbp/usd - the pairs against which the dollar was dropping, not rising. Besides, franc had broken the figure before all important news was released.


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H4 graph
The pair didn’t manage to get over "D+" trend line and bounced off it. After that "а-а+" trend was broken, clearing the way for dropping below "С+" trend line. The pair has finished its ascending motion with the breaking of "К-К+" trend. Now the target of dropping is the level of 1.4050, while resistances are at 1.4510 and 1.4630.




Daily graph
"D+" trend line suppressed the ascending motion. That event was followed by repeated top-down breaking of "С+" trend line. Proceeding from 4-hours graph, the pair is now having the target of lowering at 1.4050. Taking into account that the pair is located above "В-В+" trend, the target level 1.5300 remains actual. Lowering to 1.4050 should be considered correctional; we should expect continuation of the ascending trend from that level with the target at 1.5300.


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How to use forecasts based on the "Strategist" trading system

Content:
1. Forecasts update frequency
2. Forecasting time frames / term of the forecast
3. What the system is using (basis of the trading system)
4. Opening positions
5. Variants of events to develop
6. Designation of trend lines



1. Forecasts update frequency
Forecasts are updated regularly on the basis of relevancy. Forecasts won’t be updated (current forecast remains valid) until the pair will reach targets given in the forecast, or the technical picture will change dramatically.


2. Forecasting time frames / term of the forecast
Forecasts are given over two time frames: H4 and Daily (forecasts over time frames lower than H4 are not given). Forecast relevancy (reaching the target of the pair) over H4 time frame lasts for a period of three to seven days. For Daily time frame this period varies from two weeks to a month (sometimes more).
A strategic target of the pair is given over Daily time frame, and a local target is given over H4 (relative to Daily; H4 time frame represents internal waves of the trend from Daily time frame). Therefore, there are two presentations: a strategic (long-term) and a local one (short-term).


3. What the system is using (basis of the trading system)
The "Strategist" trading system uses classic trends and figures of technical analysis.
Examples of trends:

Trends are being built basing on trend lines.

Examples of figures:

Figures are being built basing on trend lines, just like trends are.


4. Opening positions
A position is opened when a trend line gets broken (when the pair breaks a trend line and then goes for 30 pips in the same direction). A stop loss is set behind a trend line. Upon breaking of every trend line or trend, a new target is formed, and the market has to reach it.


An example of trend breaking:


The breaking of a trend line/trend/figure can be a false one when, after the breaking, the pair repeatedly breaks the same trend line without reaching the pair’s target. In case of the false breaking the forecast becomes irrelevant.

Breaking of trend lines at daily time frames is connected with releases of important news. Sometimes a trend line can be broken before news is released but, as a rule, such breaking proves to be a false one and the true breaking happens after news release.


5. Variants of events to develop
In forecasts multiple variants of events to develop are suggested at once. Variants come true in case of breaking either one or another trend line. Each variant takes place under a specific condition (causal connection), which should be satisfied in order to realize the variant.

An example of forecasting:
GBP/USD pair is in “a-a+” ascending trend and is constrained within the range (1.4700 – 1.4940) between two trend lines: “C+” and “D+”. There are 3 variants of events to develop:
1. Variant: the pair breaks “D+” trend line and heads to the target level 1.5800.
This forecast is cancelled in case the pair manages to drop below “D+” trend line after breaking it (indicates a false breaking).
2. Variant: the pair stays in range 1.4700 – 1.4940 between “C+” and “D+” trend lines. Upon bounce off “C+” trend line the pair will head to “D+”, break it and make its way to the target level 1.5800.
This forecast is cancelled in case: see Variant 1.
3. Variant: the pair will not manage to break “D+” trend line. After breaking “C+” trend line and then also “a-a+” trend, the pair will head to the target level 1.4050.
This forecast is cancelled in case the pair won’t be able to develop a descending motion after breaking “a-a+” trend and it will go up above “a” and “C+” trend lines (higher than level 1.4700).


Forecast result:




6. Designation of trend lines
Trend lines are designated by letters with only purpose to make it clear for the reader of a forecast which line exactly is described. As a rule, trends at H4 graphs are designated as “a-a+”, at daily graphs as “B-B+”, and at weekly graphs as “C-C+”. The rest of trend lines designations are made arbitrarily.


Trading signals
Trading signals for given forecasts will possibly appear at the site for free access after some time.


RISKS WARNING
Forecasts are not the trading signals! They help to reveal the direction of the market’s motion as well as the market’s future intentions to move along one or another side upon satisfying one or another specific condition. When you trade, rely solely on signals of your trading system; use forecasts only for seeing the market’s prospect and the targets of the market’s motion. The trading radically differs from the forecasting. In the situation when an analyst sees a straightforward motion of the market, a trader can close a number of deals, most of which will probably be unprofitable if a trader will not observe the rules of his or her trading system.
The author of the forecasts is not liable for the results of trading that is guided by offered forecasts.
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