一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

April 1st, 2009 at 9:42 am
Financial Fool’s Day.in: General, Trades
April the First, traditional day for pranks and jokes, hasn’t been that funny for some. World leaders, gathering in London for the G20 summit, were greeted by protests and riots. An angry crowd clashed with riot police in central London on Wednesday, breaking into the heavily guarded Royal Bank of Scotland and smashing its windows. They also tried to storm the Bank of England and pelted police with eggs and other objects of that nature. Protesters focused the Royal Bank of Scotland because it was bailed out by the British government after a series of disastrous deals brought it to the brink of bankruptcy. Today’s  protests were named “Financial Fool’s day”, which I think is a right on, given both timing and circumstances.
It is estimated that crowds numbered about 4000, most of them anarchists, anti-capitalists and environmentalists. I’m sure you could find all of anti-??? groups being represented there. Let’s not forget people few soccer hooligans practicing for next weekend, some unemployed without any anti-??? affiliation and surely couple of guys who simply had nothing better to do. I’m sure this will be the picture throughout the meeting. Still, given general poor state of world’s economy, I must say these protests were mild. Ten years ago WTO meeting in Seattle was a witness to far worse riots, hopefully something that will not happen in London. From now on news from the summit should get more serious and to the point.
Trading was good today. EUR-GBP sell order was triggered and met its objective.

Entry was at 0.9227 and target at 0.9160. Everything happened fast, trade brought 67 pips.  Now, another sell order is waiting as explained in a post Special Drawing Rights. I’m using 4H chart for that one, but depending on how the market behaves, hourly trades could be included. That post also covers EUR-PLN and a potential short trade. This happened and I’m already out of it with decent profit of 1250 pips. I’ll go over the details tomorrow, since the trade just closed and don’t have the chart ready.

Swiss Franc looks weak and getting weaker so I’m placing couple of buy orders here. One is at 0.9090, the other if there is a pullback to about 0.9010. The cross is CAD-CHF. I will also try to show something on EUR-CHF chart tomorrow. Seems like a busy agenda for next post, I’d better get rested.
Mike K.

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March 31st, 2009 at 10:15 am
Bracing for the summit.in: General, Trades
Since this is my blog, I’ll start with minor personal updates. Trip to Mazatlan was great, just what I needed. Few days of warm weather made for a nice change from our prolonged winter. And, really, it was just warm, not hot. Temperatures no higher than low 80’s, very enjoyable. I don’t even look like a lobster or feel extra crispy. On the way back plane was almost empty, guess people didn’t want to go back to work. At any rate, one of the stewardesses (Alaska Airlines) was telling me how unpredictable their job is now, if they fly to Anchorage. Mount Redoubt volcano is blowing ash every other day, so flights are cancelled, rerouted and what have you. This brought back a lot of memories of this very same volcano active in 1989( can’t believe it’s been 20 years) and me stuck in in Dutch Harbor trying to make it home for Christmas. Some people were there for a few weeks not able to get out, courtesy of Mount Redoubt. Good times…
This week is going to be dominated with news from G20 summit in London. It starts on the 2nd of April, but most of the movers and shakers are already there. We all know agenda is heavy and stakes are high. Last meeting was in November and set lofty goals for international cooperation. Unfortunately, the world economy is in far worse shape now with all the goals from previous summit missed. Trade is deteriorating, protectionism is on the march and joblessness is rising. Street demonstrations have increased and widespread protests in London are predicted. On the same token, the usual declarations of unity and cooperation are also expected. There will be a lot of smaller meetings among world’s leaders. I expect a barrage of news, deals and rumors over next few days, most of them will not amount to much. But, whatever happens there has very good chance to move markets, if only temporarily, so it’s better to pay attention. Besides all the issues are important, so I think it is in everybody’s interest to follow the developments there.
Not much trading last night, breaking myself in slowly. I’m placing additional order to the set up from .

Trade based on 4H chart is still valid, but there is also room for a smaller trade. I’m using hourly chart and look for a sell. Entry is planned at 0.9227 with a target of 0.9160.  Yen pairs are worth watching now. AUD-JPY, NZD-JPY and GBP-JPY rebounded strongly from the sell off. We must see continuation form current levels, but prices seem to be pausing. Could time of day(typical slowdown about now) or potential reversal. I think these pairs are at important point right now, with Yen bearish bias.
Mike K.

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March 29th, 2009 at 7:22 am
Special Drawing Rights.in: Articles, General, Longer Term Trades., Trades
Most of the time I get one or two emails after my updates here. Sometimes there’s none. Few posts, however, generate interest and I receive a fair number of questions regarding them. Such was the case with  Readers were interested of how this would work, what possibly could replace the dollar. Mainstream press also picked on the subject, as was evident to me during flight here. Lady sitting next to  me started a conversation about financial matters, which, ultimately, drifted to this issue, since she had just read some article about it.
What China, and supporters, are proposing is not really an introduction of any “new currency”. There would not be any coins or notes put into circulation. While details of the plan are murky, proposal is for an accounting unit based on a basket of currencies, including the USD. For those who don’t know, there is nothing new about the concept. In 1969 International Monetary Fund created just this type of “currency”, known as “Special Drawing Rights”, or SDR’s. In the original version unit of SDR was pegged to the dollar, but evolved over the years to be based on four different currencies. This new push away from dollar might bring SDR’s from obscurity. Proponents would expand the role of SDR’s to use for pricing of commodities, main converter of international trade as well as denominator of some debt.
Idea in itself has some merits, but would require world wide agreements. First, the exact composition of SDR’s, or whatever name prevails, would likely be a subject of lengthy and heated debate. Some countries will probably reject the idea outright, like USA. Adoption of a mechanism like that could make it very hard for the Treasury to finance our growing debt. Banks would have to adopt uniform accounting standards, private companies need to be willing to accept SDR’s as payments and so on. Frankly, even if the world community agreed to go along with something of this sort, it still would take years (decade?) to take full effect.
Some people fear that if this proposal is rejected, China will dump her USD holdings. Chances for it to happen are slim, as this action would severely depreciate their reserves, something Chinese officials are desperately trying to avoid. What we should expect, however, is far less money from China to fund our future debt. This is an area for concern. With other major buyers of Treasury paper, Japan, oil exporters and others, bringing less dollars from exports, it will be difficult to fill void China’s buying absence creates. I’m sure Washington is fully aware of this.
I’m not trading today or even tomorrow, still enjoying the sun, but think it is time to review a longer term trade discussed couple of weeks ago.
Currency pair in question is EUR-PLN.

This was described in . Plan was, and is, to sell it at 4.4000 with an objective of about 3000 pips. So far price is moving in opposite direction. Wit this in mind I’m considering additional sell of this cross somewhere between 4.7000 and 4.8000. This would give it a reasonably stop at 4.9500 or so. My entry will be creation of strong reversal candle on daily chart. Doji, hanging man or one of the stars are what I’m looking for. It is enough that I visit the chart once a day.
One more of “set and forget”trade.

Our old friend, EUR-GBP, which produced couple of decent trades last week. Here is 4H chart for a change. Once again I want to sell it, this time at 0.9130. Objective is large, for this pair, of 200-230 pips. Well, it is not exactly set and forget, but I can place the order and not have to  worry about for a day or two(probably). Just long enough to get home.
No post tomorrow, but should be home Monday night my time, so if not too tired, I’ll update blog Tuesday at customary time.
Mike K.

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March 26th, 2009 at 9:22 am
Is protectionism always bad?in: General, Trades
Current financial crisis is often blamed on globalization, as a root of all evil. Good jobs are exported, or outsourced, to countries where labor is much cheaper. Some in the West, countries which lost most jobs, see it as exploitation of local population in countries like China and India. Inhabitants of those countries largely disagree , having seen their income, and standard of living, increase since the free trade started in earnest couple of decades ago. After being “pro” free trade, America is turning towards protectionism. At this point it is largely a grass root movement, one that has gained some political clout. In fact, it had enough support to attempt to include “Buy US” provisions into bailout legislation. Ultimately they didn’t pass. I’m all for free trade and some unwelcome consequences which go with it. However, should we outsource production of goods to countries which clearly demonstrated failure to properly produce them within their own borders? Case in point. Upon failure of the “Buy US” provision, the last remaining producer of condoms in USA is loosing contract and the manufacturing process is outsourced to… China. Now, do we have evidence that Chinese producers mastered the the intricacies of condoms? That’s debatable. After all it is the most populated country, and it is still growing at rapid pace. Clearly, the condoms are not top notch. Now, Chinese officials claim progress, citing that India’s population is growing much faster. Valid point, one shouldn’t use condoms made in India also, they seem to be of even lower standard. Personally, I think that Chinese have as much business making condoms, as we have teaching others fiscal prudence and the art of balancing the budget- none! In situations like this, isn’t protectionism excusable?
I didn’t trade a lot, besides no trade was featured yesterday, but I want to show something here.  I receive large number of emails from people who ask me what system I use and so on. The trades featured here, while they have some underlying structure, don’t really fall under any system. They are mostly discretionary. It doesn’t mean they are guess work or gut feeling, but they can’t be very easily explained. Here is an example.

After the post yesterday, before computers were shut down, I went long GBP-CHF, for a number of reasons. After severe sell off price formed possible reversal pattern during the time of day at which activity usually slows down, or reverses. 4H chart(not shown) suggested possible reaction at a FIB level, but most intangible was the way price acted. There was a recognizable acceleration in price change after which it ”snapped” sharply within this hourly doji, something that can be noticed only if watched live. So, plenty of reasons, but not really molded into any set of rules- discretionary. So was the exit. Price almost touched 50% retracement of the preceding down move, as well as bounced around 100SMA for couple of hours and the gain was decent, so I pulled a plug. Hope it makes sense and demonstrates the what I mean by discretionary.
There will be no posts for a few days, I’ll be away on a trip, until Monday evening. I might refresh the blog Sunday morning, before markets open, if i feel like it, but in principle next post will be on Tuesday. Wish everybody many pips.
Mike K.

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March 25th, 2009 at 9:34 am
Road to hell.in: General, Trades
The G20 summit in London is coming pretty soon, and the normal rhetoric’s leading to the event are heating up. This one came from  The president of the European Union. Czech Prime Minister Mirek Topolanek, whose country currently holds the rotating EU presidency, told the European Parliament that President Barack Obama’s massive stimulus package and banking bailout “is a road to hell”. He slammed the U.S.’ widening budget deficit and protectionist trade measures — such as the “Buy America” policies included in the stimulus bill, although Obama has said he opposes protectionism in principle. He warned that financing US spending spree, financed through sell of Treasury paper, will undermine the liquidity of the global financial markets. Topolanek said that “all of these steps, these combinations and permanency is the road to hell.”
This blunt statement came a day after Topolanek’s government collapsed because of a parliamentary vote of no-confidence in Czech Republic, which means that he will soon vacate EU president seat. Other European politicians were quick to distance themselves from his statement, but it doesn’t change the fact that a great divide exists between EU and USA on the approach to combat current crisis. America seems to be buying its way out of recession, with borrowed money, while Europe is taking more measured, wait and see course, risking being stuck in the rut much longer, should American way work. Meanwhile Japan’s economy contracted at an annual pace of 12.7 percent in the October-to-December quarter, its worst drop since the oil crisis 35 years ago, amid a record decline in exports. We all can guess what their agenda for the summit is going to be. With China and Russia discussing global currency scheme, all is pointing to a very lively G20 meeting.
Last post covered my trade in GBP-NZD. We can be certain this is not going to be on the agenda in London next week, unless they need a humorous break.

Plan was to buy at 2.6100 and sell at 2.6400. Order was filled and at some point trade was in profit for 225 pips. Unfortunately, my target proved to be overly ambitious and was not reached. Price collapsed, and I had to scramble to get out at break even. Lesson - greed doesn’t pay, just kidding. While trading GBP-NZD or GBP-AUD this is very much normal behaviour, they are not easy to trade. I know, excuses.
My other trade from these pages was in EUR-CAD.

After my  price movement slowed down and started to give signs of reversing, so on my way out I just closed it. Trade ended with 86 pips gain, short of target. The chart above is from yesterday, without today’s action.
I was planning to take some time off in conjunction with Easter. It turned out, however, that somebody is coming over to see me, which means I have to stay home. This made me decide to take a trip into warmer climate for a few days, take a break, relax. So, tomorrow afternoon I’m going to Mazatlan for a long weekend. Be back Monday evening, although tomorrow an update will be posted- a look at daily chart of GBP-JPY, the beast.
Mike K.

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hefeiddd

April 1st, 2009 at 9:42 am
Financial Fool’s Day.in: General, Trades
April the First, traditional day for pranks and jokes, hasn’t been that funny for some. World leaders, gathering in London for the G20 summit, were greeted by protests and riots. An angry crowd clashed with riot police in central London on Wednesday, breaking into the heavily guarded Royal Bank of Scotland and smashing its windows. They also tried to storm the Bank of England and pelted police with eggs and other objects of that nature. Protesters focused the Royal Bank of Scotland because it was bailed out by the British government after a series of disastrous deals brought it to the brink of bankruptcy. Today’s  protests were named “Financial Fool’s day”, which I think is a right on, given both timing and circumstances.
It is estimated that crowds numbered about 4000, most of them anarchists, anti-capitalists and environmentalists. I’m sure you could find all of anti-??? groups being represented there. Let’s not forget people few soccer hooligans practicing for next weekend, some unemployed without any anti-??? affiliation and surely couple of guys who simply had nothing better to do. I’m sure this will be the picture throughout the meeting. Still, given general poor state of world’s economy, I must say these protests were mild. Ten years ago WTO meeting in Seattle was a witness to far worse riots, hopefully something that will not happen in London. From now on news from the summit should get more serious and to the point.
Trading was good today. EUR-GBP sell order was triggered and met its objective.

Entry  chart for that one, but depending on how the market behaves, hourly trades could be included. That post also covers EUR-PLN and a potential short trade. This happened and I’m already out of it with decent profit of 1250 pips. I’ll go over the details tomorrow, since the trade just closed and don’t have the chart ready.

Swiss Franc looks weak and getting weaker so I’m placing couple of buy orders here. One is at 0.9090, the other if there is a pullback to about 0.9010. The cross is CAD-CHF. I will also try to show something on EUR-CHF chart tomorrow. Seems like a busy agenda for next post, I’d better get rested.


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March 31st, 2009 at 10:15 am
Bracing for the summit.in: General, Trades
Since this is my blog, I’ll start with minor personal updates. Trip to Mazatlan was great, just what I needed. Few days of warm weather made for a nice change from our prolonged winter. And, really, it was just warm, not hot. Temperatures no higher than low 80’s, very enjoyable. I don’t even look like a lobster or feel extra crispy. On the way back plane was almost empty, guess people didn’t want to go back to work. At any rate, one of the stewardesses (Alaska Airlines) was telling me how unpredictable their job is now, if they fly to Anchorage. Mount Redoubt volcano is blowing ash every other day, so flights are cancelled, rerouted and what have you. This brought back a lot of memories of this very same volcano active in 1989( can’t believe it’s been 20 years) and me stuck in in Dutch Harbor trying to make it home for Christmas. Some people were there for a few weeks not able to get out, courtesy of Mount Redoubt. Good times…
This week is going to be dominated with news from G20 summit in London. It starts on the 2nd of April, but most of the movers and shakers are already there. We all know agenda is heavy and stakes are high. Last meeting was in November and set lofty goals for international cooperation. Unfortunately, the world economy

Trade based on 4H chart is still valid, but there is also room for a smaller trade. I’m using hourly chart and look for a sell. Entry is planned at 0.9227 with a target of 0.9160.  Yen pairs are worth watching now. AUD-JPY, NZD-JPY and GBP-JPY rebounded strongly from the sell off. We must see continuation form current levels, but prices seem to be pausing. Could time of day(typical slowdown about now) or potential reversal. I think these pairs are at important point right now, with Yen bearish bias.
Mike K.



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March 29th, 2009 at 7:22 am
Special Drawing Rights.in: Articles, General, Longer Term Trades., Trades
Most of the time I get one or
I’m not trading today or even tomorrow, still enjoying the sun, but think it is time to review a longer term trade discussed couple of weeks ago.
Currency pair in question is EUR-PLN.

This was sell of this cross somewhere between 4.7000 and 4.8000. This would give it a reasonably stop at 4.9500 or so. My entry will be creation of strong reversal candle on daily chart. Doji, hanging man or one of the stars are what I’m looking for. It is enough that I visit the chart once a day.
One more of “set and forget”trade.

Our old friend, EUR-GBP, which produced couple of decent trades last week. Here is 4H chart for a change. Once again I want to sell it, this time at 0.9130. Objective is large, for this pair, of 200-230 pips. Well, it is not exactly set and forget, but I can place the order and not have to  worry about for a

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March 26th, 2009 at 9:22 am
Is protectionism always bad?in: General, Trades
Current financial crisis is often blamed on globalization, as a root of all evil. Good jobs are exported, or outsourced, to countries where labor is much cheaper. Some in the West, countries which lost most jobs, see it as exploitation of local population in countries like China and India. Inhabitants of those countries largely disagree , having seen their income, and standard of living, increase since the free trade started in earnest couple of decades ago. After being “pro” free trade, America is turning towards protectionism. At this point it is largely a grass root movement, one that has gained some political clout. In fact, it had enough support to attempt to include “Buy US” provisions into bailout legislation. Ultimately they didn’t pass. I’m all for free trade and some unwelcome consequences which go with it. However, should we outsource production of goods to countries which clearly demonstrated failure to properly produce them within their own borders? Case in point. Upon failure of the “Buy US” provision, the last remaining producer of condoms in USA is loosing contract and the manufacturing process is outsourced to… China. Now, do we have evidence that Chinese producers mastered the the intricacies of condoms? That’s debatable. After all it is the most populated country, and it is still growing at rapid pace. Clearly, the condoms are not top notch. Now, Chinese officials claim progress, citing that India’s population is growing much faster. Valid point, one shouldn’t use condoms made in India also, they seem to be of even lower standard. Personally, I think that Chinese have as much business making condoms, as we have teaching others fiscal prudence and the art of balancing the budget- none! In situations like this, isn’t protectionism excusable?
I didn’t trade a lot, besides no trade was featured yesterday, but I want to show something here.  I receive large number of emails from people who ask me what system I use and so on. The trades featured here, while they have some underlying structure, don’t really fall under any system. They are mostly discretionary. It doesn’t mean they are guess work or gut feeling, but they can’t be very easily explained. Here is an example.


Plan was to buy at 2.6100 and sell at 2.6400. Order was filled and at some point trade was in profit for 225 pips. Unfortunately, my target proved to be overly ambitious and was not reached. Price collapsed, and I had to scramble to get out at break even. Lesson - greed doesn’t pay, just kidding. While trading GBP-NZD or GBP-AUD this is very much normal behaviour, they are not easy to trade. I know, excuses.
My other trade from these pages was in EUR-CAD.



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hefeiddd

April 1st, 2009 at 9:42 am

Trading was good today. EUR-GBP sell order was triggered and met its objective.






This was described






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hefeiddd

March 24th, 2009 at 10:04 am
Call for a new global currency.in: General, Trades
Surprise, surprise, China is calling for a new global currency to be controlled by the International Monetary Fund. This was in news release by Chinese central bank governor published on Monday, stepping up pressure ahead of a London summit of global leaders for changes to a financial system dominated by the U.S. dollar. It would become a new reserve currency, but also to be used for trade, investment, pricing commodities and corporate bookkeeping. China is not alone, with Russia also calling for such reforms and says it will press its case at the G-20summit. This is not the first time question of some kind replacement for the Dollar, came up, only these days it is getting more serious than ever. I covered this subject a little bit in Safe haven currency, and will look at this again in depth in a few days. Right now I simply don’t have time, trading must intrude.
One more fundamental development, though. Not very important today, perhaps, but a sign of things to come. UK inflation defied expectations to rise in February for the first time in five months, surprising market observers. O.K, who cares about market observers, it shocked market participants. This might signal rising interest rates much faster than anticipated, putting a major wrinkle into the fight with global financial crisis. So far central banks have been pumping money into their respective economies. In face of inflation, they might have turn off the presses, bringing current plan to a halt. This is not going to happen tomorrow, but one should be aware of this already emerging, if slowly.
I’ve had bunch of trades from yesterday, but the most important trading development that took place today had not been discussed since  Twisted  stories post was published. GBP-JPY finally broke out to the upside on daily chart. My entry was at 142.00, with first target at 148.00 and second at 162.00. I have been waiting for it a long time, this could be most important, at least interesting, trade of the year. For me this is big news which deserves own post. Soon.
Sell in EUR-GBP from yesterday worked as planned, for a change.

Trade initiated yesterday at 0.9380 reached the 0.9300 target. I decided to get into it again on the break under 0.9280. To be more precise, entry was at 0.9275. This trade produced 75 pips. I really like these simple trades on reversals. Trade breaks, takes out previous low, than rally happens to 100SMA. Easy entry, small risks. These situations happen very often an all time frames and are easy to find.
Next trade from yesterday was a sell of EUR-CAD. Position is still opened and I’ll go over it in the next post.
Another order was placed, this time in GBP-NZD.

I think a reversal on this chart is possible. Plan is to buy it at 2.6100, objective about 300 pips. This is a simple breakout trade, not much really to add. But I have small announcement: decided to take some time off and go somewhere where sun is shining, for 3-4 days. Not sure where yet, will know after I come back from a travel agent in couple of hours. Probably Mexico.
Mike K.

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March 23rd, 2009 at 10:26 am
Trillion here, trillion there.in: General, Trades

In order to describe government’s spending, or rather wastefulness, there used to be a saying around Washington: “A billion here, a billion there, pretty much we are talking serious money”. Times have changed dramatically and some modifications should be introduced to that phrase. The way it goes now is “Trillion here, trillion there…” and so on. After prolonged wait, bases of a plan to remove “toxic assets” from major banks balance sheets was outlined. Treasury would finance the creation of several investment funds charged with buying up to $1 trillion of  mortgage-backed securities and other bad assets now corroding the books of huge financial institutions. It is proposed to be a partnership of sorts between government and private investors. It is unclear who those investors would be and how much money they’d contribute. These proposed funds would house “toxic assets” for some time, until situation changes enough to make them marketable securities again. Proponents of this plan argue that, with time, government would be able to recover most of the costs and maybe even make modest profit for taxpayers. Administration officials say they have received private assurances that at least some big investors would participate, but such a strategy has never been tried and there’s no guarantee it will work. Meanwhile, trillions are piling up and very soon congress will be asked to lift the “statutory national debt ceiling” to yet another lofty high. With budget deficit projected to be about trillion (this word again) a year for next 10 years, looks like lawmakers will be doing it on regular bases.
In the last post I featured EUR-GBP and my plan to sell it.

Order was filled at 0.9348. Sell of continued nicely, unfortunately not as far as I thought it would. In retrospect, target of 50 pips would have been far more reasonable. 100 pips, well, a little too greedy. Once the price reversed and gain was shrinking fast, so I closed for measly 10 pips. Price continued higher and reached 100 SMA. I sold it again at 0.9380. This time around objective is 80 pips.  
Buy order in GBP-CHF was triggered at 1.6388.

This was disappointing as well.  After few days of waiting, breakout happened and pulled back. Well, I closed it for 22 pips gain. Nowhere near the 250 or so intended. Just didn’t want slip into loosing position after being in the black about 90 pips. Currently, unlike EUR-GBP, I have no new trade here.
The buy in CAD-JPY was taken in another account, enough trades in this one.

After the Pound trades I got a little jittery. Didn’t want to go through the same thing here. I took 79 pips, because it looked like this move was pausing. This maybe true on 1H chart, but the trade was chosen using 4H charts. On that time frame pullback to entry level or so would be nothing unusual, even typical, and the trade remains valid. However, with next resistance at around 79.30, who knows? I probably was looking for reasons to close it.  At any rate, I’m out of this one, for better or worse.
Here is another cross where I’m looking for a trade.

Hourly chart of EUR-CAD. I still think that Canadian Dollar will show some strength soon, and Euro is likely to get weaker. Sell order is placed at 1.6638, with an objective of 1.6500, fairly small one, but after today I don’t want to be too ambitious. For what I know, markets can be moving in these short pulses for a while now. Hopefully not.

Mike K

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hefeiddd

March 24th, 2009 at 10:04 am
Call for a new global currency.in: General, Trades
Surprise, surprise, China is calling for a new global currency to be controlled by the International Monetary Fund. This was in news release by Chinese central bank governor published on Monday, stepping up pressure ahead of a London summit of global leaders for changes to a financial system dominated by the U.S. dollar. It would become a new reserve currency, but also to be used for trade, investment, pricing commodities and corporate bookkeeping. China is not alone, with Russia also calling for such reforms and says it will press its case at the G-20summit. This is not the first time question of some kind replacement for the Dollar, came up, only these days it is getting more serious than ever. I covered this subject a little bit inpost was published. GBP-JPY finally broke out to the upside on daily chart. My entry was at 142.00, with first target at 148.00 and second at 162.00. I have been waiting for it a long time, this could be most important, at least interesting, trade of the year. For me this is big news which deserves own post. Soon.
Sell in EUR-GBP from yesterday worked as planned, for a change.

Trade initiated yesterday at 0.9380 reached the 0.9300 target. I decided to get into it again on the break under 0.9280. To be more precise, entry was at 0.9275. This trade produced 75 pips. I really like these simple trades on reversals. Trade breaks, takes out previous low, than rally happens to 100SMA. Easy entry, small risks. These situations happen very often an all time frames and are easy to find.
Next trade from yesterday was a sell of EUR-CAD. Position is still opened and I’ll go over it in the next post.
Another order was placed, this time in GBP-NZD.

I think a reversal on this chart is possible. Plan is to buy it at 2.6100, objective about 300 pips. This is a simple breakout trade, not much really to add. But I have small announcement: decided to take some time off and go somewhere where sun is shining, for 3-4 days. Not sure where yet, will know after I come back from a travel agent in couple of hours. Probably Mexico.
Mike K.



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March 23rd, 2009 at 10:26 am
Trillion here, trillion there.in: General, Trades

In order to describe government’s spending, or rather wastefulness, there used to be a saying around Washington: “A billion here, a billion there, pretty much we are talking serious money”. Times have changed dramatically and some modifications should be introduced to that phrase. The way it goes now is “Trillion here, trillion there…” and so on. After prolonged wait, bases of a plan to remove “toxic assets” from major banks balance sheets was outlined. Treasury would finance the creation of several investment funds charged with buying up to $1 trillion of  mortgage-backed securities and other bad assets now corroding the books of huge financial institutions. It is proposed to be a partnership of sorts between government and private investors. It is unclear who those investors would be and how much money they’d contribute. These proposed funds would house “toxic assets” for some time, until situation changes enough to make them marketable securities again. Proponents of this plan argue that, with time, government would be able to recover most of the costs and maybe even make modest profit for taxpayers. Administration officials say they have received private assurances that at least some big investors would participate, but such a strategy has never been tried and there’s no guarantee it will work. Meanwhile, trillions are piling up and very soon congress will be asked to lift the “statutory national debt ceiling” to yet another lofty high. With budget deficit projected to be about trillion (this word again) a year for next 10 years, looks like lawmakers will be doing it on regular bases.
In the last post I featured EUR-GBP and my plan to sell it.

Order was filled at 0.9348. Sell of continued nicely, unfortunately not as far as I thought it would. In retrospect, target of 50 pips would have been far more reasonable. 100 pips, well, a little too greedy. Once the price reversed and gain was shrinking fast, so I closed for measly 10 pips. Price continued higher and reached 100 SMA. I sold it again at 0.9380. This time around objective is 80 pips.  
Buy order in GBP-CHF was triggered at 1.6388.

This was disappointing as well.  After few days of waiting, breakout happened and pulled back. Well, I closed it for 22 pips gain. Nowhere near the 250 or so intended. Just didn’t want slip into loosing position after being in the black about 90 pips. Currently, unlike EUR-GBP, I have no new trade here.
The buy in CAD-JPY was taken in another account, enough trades in this one.

After the Pound trades I got a little jittery. Didn’t want to go through the same thing here. I took 79 pips, because it looked like this move was pausing. This maybe true on 1H chart, but the trade was chosen using 4H charts. On that time frame pullback to entry level or so would be nothing unusual, even typical, and the trade remains valid. However, with next resistance at around 79.30, who knows? I probably was looking for reasons to close it.  At any rate, I’m out of this one, for better or worse.
Here is another cross where I’m looking for a trade.

Hourly chart of EUR-CAD. I still think that Canadian Dollar will show some strength soon, and Euro is likely to get weaker. Sell order is placed at 1.6638, with an objective of 1.6500, fairly small one, but after today I don’t want to be too ambitious. For what I know, markets can be moving in these short pulses for a while now. Hopefully not.

Mike K



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hefeiddd

March 24th, 2009 at 10:04 am
Call for a new global currency.



Mike K.

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March 23rd, 2009 at 10:26 am
Trillion here, trillion there.in: General, Trades

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hefeiddd

March 24th, 2009 at 10:04 am


Trade initiated yesterday at 0.9380 reached the 0.9300 target. I decided to get into it again on the break under 0.9280. To be more precise, entry was at 0.9275. This trade produced 75 pips. I really like these simple trades on reversals. Trade breaks, takes out previous low, than rally happens to 100SMA. Easy entry, small risks. These situations happen very often an all time frames and are easy to find.
Next trade from yesterday was a sell of EUR-CAD. Position is still opened and I’ll go over it in the next post.
Another order was placed, this time in GBP-NZD.

I

Order was filled at 0.9348. Sell of continued nicely, unfortunately not as far as I thought it would. In retrospect, target of 50 pips would have been far more reasonable. 100 pips, well, a little too greedy. Once the price reversed and gain was shrinking fast, so I closed for measly 10 pips. Price continued higher and reached 100 SMA. I sold it again at 0.9380. This time around objective is 80 pips.  
Buy order in GBP-CHF was triggered at 1.6388.

This was disappointing as well.  After few days of waiting, breakout happened and pulled back. Well, I closed it for 22 pips gain. Nowhere near the 250 or so intended. Just didn’t want slip into loosing position after being in the black about 90 pips. Currently, unlike EUR-GBP, I have no new trade here.
The buy in CAD-JPY was taken in another account, enough trades in this one.

After

Hourly chart of EUR-CAD. I still think that Canadian Dollar will show some strength soon, and Euro is likely to get weaker. Sell order is placed at 1.6638, with an objective of 1.6500, [/url]
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hefeiddd

March 24th, 2009 at 10:04 am
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hefeiddd

March 24th, 2009 at 10:04 am
Call for a new global currency.in: General, Trades
Surprise, surprise, China is calling for a new global currency to be controlled by the International Monetary Fund. This was in news release by Chinese central bank governor published on Monday, stepping up pressure ahead of a London summit of global leaders for changes to a financial system dominated by the U.S. dollar. It would become a new reserve currency, but also to be used for trade, investment, pricing commodities and was published. GBP-JPY finally broke out to the upside on daily chart. My entry was at 142.00, with first target at 148.00 and second at 162.00. I have been waiting for it a long time, this could be most important, at least interesting, trade of the year. For me this is big news which deserves own post. Soon.
Sell in EUR-GBP from yesterday worked as planned, for a change.

Trade initiated yesterday at 0.9380 reached the 0.9300 target. I decided to get into it again on the break under 0.9280. To be more precise, entry was at 0.9275. This trade produced 75 pips. I really like these simple trades on reversals. Trade breaks, takes out previous low, than rally happens to 100SMA. Easy entry, small risks. These situations happen very often an all time frames and are easy to find.
Next trade from yesterday was a sell of EUR-CAD. Position is still opened and I’ll go over it in the next post.
Another order was placed, this time in GBP-NZD.

I think a reversal on this chart is possible. Plan is to buy it at 2.6100, objective about 300 pips. This is a simple breakout trade, not much really to add. But I have small announcement: decided to take some time off and go somewhere where sun is shining, for 3-4 days. Not sure where yet, will know after I come back from a travel agent in couple of hours. Probably Mexico.
Mike K.

March 23rd, 2009 at 10:26 am
Trillion here, trillion there.in: General, Trades

In order to describe government’s spending, or rather wastefulness, there used to be a saying around Washington: “A billion here, a billion there, pretty much we are talking serious money”. Times have changed dramatically and some modifications should be introduced to that phrase. The way it goes now is “Trillion here, trillion there…” and so on. After prolonged wait, bases of a plan to remove “toxic assets” from major banks balance sheets was outlined. Treasury would finance the creation of several investment funds charged with buying up to $1 trillion of  mortgage-backed securities and other bad assets now corroding the books of huge financial institutions. It is proposed to be a partnership of sorts between government and private investors. It is unclear who those investors would be and how much money they’d contribute. These proposed funds would house “toxic assets” for some time, until situation changes enough to make them marketable securities again. Proponents of this plan argue that, with time, government would be able to recover most of the costs and maybe even make modest profit for taxpayers. Administration officials say they have received private assurances that at least some big investors would participate, but such a strategy has never been tried and there’s no guarantee it will work. Meanwhile, trillions are piling up and very soon congress will be asked to lift the “statutory national debt ceiling” to yet another lofty high. With budget deficit projected to be about trillion (this word again) a year for next 10 years, looks like lawmakers will be doing it on regular bases.
In the last post I featured EUR-GBP and my plan to sell it.

Order was filled at 0.9348. Sell of continued nicely, unfortunately not as far as I thought it would. In retrospect, target of 50 pips would have been far more reasonable. 100 pips, well, a little too greedy. Once the price reversed and gain was shrinking fast, so I closed for measly 10 pips. Price continued higher and reached 100 SMA. I sold it again at 0.9380. This time around objective is 80 pips.  
Buy order in GBP-CHF was triggered at 1.6388.

This was disappointing as well.  After few days of waiting, breakout happened and pulled back. Well, I closed it for 22 pips gain. Nowhere near the 250 or so intended. Just didn’t want slip into loosing position after being in the black about 90 pips. Currently, unlike EUR-GBP, I have no new trade here.
The buy in CAD-JPY was taken in another account, enough trades in this one.

After the Pound trades I got a little jittery. Didn’t want to go through the same thing here. I took 79 pips, because it looked like this move was pausing. This maybe true on 1H chart, but the trade was chosen using 4H charts. On that time frame pullback to entry level or so would be nothing unusual, even typical, and the trade remains valid. However, with next resistance at around 79.30, who knows? I probably was looking for reasons to close it.  At any rate, I’m out of this one, for better or worse.
Here is another cross where I’m looking for a trade.

Hourly chart of EUR-CAD. I still think that Canadian Dollar will show some strength soon, and Euro is likely to get weaker. Sell order is placed at 1.6638, with an objective of 1.6500, fairly small one, but after today I don’t want to be too ambitious. For what I know, markets can be moving in these short pulses for a while now. Hopefully not.

Mike K

hefeiddd

March 24th, 2009 at 10:04 am






Order was filled at 0.9348. Sell of continued nicely, unfortunately not as far as I thought it would. In retrospect, target of 50 pips would have been far more reasonable. 100 pips, well, a little too greedy. Once the price reversed and gain was shrinking fast, so I closed for measly 10 pips. Price continued higher and reached 100 SMA. I sold it again at 0.9380. This time around objective is 80 pips.  
Buy order in GBP-CHF was triggered at 1.6388.

This was disappointing as well.  After few days of waiting, breakout happened and pulled back. Well, I closed it for 22 pips gain. Nowhere near the 250 or so intended. Just didn’t want slip into loosing position after being in the black about 90 pips. Currently, unlike EUR-GBP, I have no new trade here.
The buy in CAD-JPY was taken in another account, enough trades in this one.

After the Pound trades I got a little jittery. Didn’t want to go through the same thing here. I took 79 pips, because it looked like this move was pausing. This maybe true on 1H chart, but the trade was chosen using 4H charts. On that time frame pullback to entry level or so would be nothing unusual, even typical, and the trade remains valid. However, with next resistance at around 79.30, who knows? I probably was looking for reasons to close it.  At any rate, I’m out of this one, for better or worse.
Here is another cross where I’m looking for a trade.

Hourly chart of EUR-CAD. I still think that Canadian Dollar will show some strength soon, and Euro is likely to get weaker. Sell order is placed at 1.6638,

hefeiddd

March 22nd, 2009 at 9:33 am

March Madness is under way. While not a great fan of collage basketball, had to bring it up for obvious reasons- the madness part. It is only fitting that seasonal madness is discussed in a place where madness always rules. At any rate, had some people over yesterday to watch the games by state teams. Results were split,  with UW going home and Gonzaga going to Sweet 16. I find Gonzaga rather an interesting story. Not even a Division 1 school, yet they can play withe best of them, year after year. Amazing.
I have an active interest in natural phenomena. For the most part it is focused on space and astronomy, but large scale developments here on earth do not escape my attention, either. That’s why I’ve been following underwater volcano eruption of the Tonga coast. Anybody who watched news over last 2-3 days knows what I’m talking about. Explosion was taped and widely distributed and by now most people surely had a chance to watch it. Originally I wanted to include one of them here, but then I found these great pictures. They are of excellent quality.

Personally I think the are better than the videos. Find it fascinating, the process of creation and destruction, which, ironically can be happening simultaneously. On one hand an island is born, on the other anything and everything in its way will get destroyed. Zero sum game, just like Forex trading.
Onclosed two trades in Yen pairs. NZD-JPY was longer term, while AUD-JPY lasted only few hours. Both of them were profitable and I managed to close them near the high of the day. This is always satisfying, but not something that can be counted on too often. Profit is what matters. At this time another one of JPY crosses looks inviting. Canadian Dollar has been lagging behind other currencies that got stronger last few week. I don’t know if CAD will be next one to move sharply, but it is enough if it only stays in pack with the others.

This is 4H chart of CAD-JPY. Buy order is placed an a break above 78.17. I would be seeking 250-300 pips if this move happens. Problem is, that so far this pair moved in very ugly fashion, with deep pull backs, which tend to shake traders out. This behaviour has already lasted some time, so maybe next breakout will be directional? We never know for sure what will happen.
I want to try EUR-GBP on the short side, too.

This pair has had a prolonged move up, on hourly charts at least. Think it is time to start looking for top, even if temporary. My sell order is placed at 0.9348, with 100 pips target. This is 1H chart, so, if executed, trade shouldn’t take as long as the one before. Should it fail, I will be tracking higher lows with sell orders, looking for next short opportunity. If neither of these trades happen, I will show a chart of GBP-JPY with my perpetual 5M buys there.

March 21st, 2009 at 11:37 am

After loosing ground for years to other currencies, over last few months US Dollar regained the status of safe haven in turbulent times. Dollar has recorded impressive rally since the beginning of the global financial crisis in summer last year. Now, following Federal Reserve’s recent action, this status is challenged again. USD suffered massive set back after FED had announced an adoption of quantitative easing, which, as far as I’m concerned, means debasing of the dollar by expanding the balance sheet.
Other currencies, which also were considered “safe”, went through their own pains lately. Japanese Yen is clearly way of its highs and likely to continue lower. Same fate befell Swiss Franc, historically the “safe haven” currency outside the dollar. SNB sold Franc on the open market as well as announced plan to start buying bonds, action similar to the one adopted by FED. This would leave Euro as a possible candidate to the title, but ECB is expected to follow example set by other central banks. If this happens, Euro will be next to join the “currency wars”, a rather strange race between countries to devalue their respective monies.
Is there anything safe left in the world of Forex? Well, there is and there isn’t. Not one single currency meets the needs of everybody to be declared a replacement for Dollar or Euro in times of turmoil. It would have to be monetary instrument of a large, growing economy with a stable government. Interestingly enough, currency must have a relatively large debt market , in the form of notes, bonds and other debentures. This market needs to be of some size, to make money flow, both in and out, cheap, fast and easy without undue price swings.  Possibly a basket of currencies could serve this role, once a standard for such is created and adopted by international financial community.
Commodities currencies can, and to some degree, do play part of a safe haven. Their fortunes are tied to prices of commodities, which are typically expressed in USD. With dollar loosing ground, these markets are rising which is reflected in currencies like Canadian Dollar, Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar. More and more often Norwegian Krone is mentioned among them. This subject has been brought up in financial press recently and is creating some interest.
Norwegian Krone (NOK) has been named by analysts as “preferred major currency with expected sustained appreciation over the next 18 months”. This might seem surprising. Only last December the Krone dropped to a record low against the Euro, as falling oil prices took their toll on the currency. But, as crude prices have stabilised, the oil producer’s currency has fought back strongly. At this time currency stands out  with unquestionable safe sovereign structural fundamentals, sound macroeconomic policies, relatively strong domestic banking sector quality and higher yields. Currently NOK pays about 2.5% in interest.
Norway’s economy grew 1.3% in the fourth quarter of last year and is not expected to experience as big a downturn as most other leading economies this year, remaining on a relatively even keel. Norway, as a country, has a large current account surplus. The cost of insuring against sovereign default in Norway is the lowest among the countries with the ten most traded currencies. This is done through  credit default swaps.

This chart shows large move in USD-NOK last couple of weeks in Krone’s favor. Certainly looks like there is more to gain. I am not looking for a trade here, for a number of reasons. First, I don’t really see a set up to my liking. Even when fundamentals look great, I still must have a very specific trading situation. Second, when mainstream press picks up a story like this, it is probably too late for a “great” trade, price has already moved and is obvious to everybody. This is apparent on next chart.

As we can see price has turned some time ago. From my point of view, the easiest, and best, opportunity has gone already. Like the trade in EUR-SEK that was featured here couple weeks ago. To be sure, there is more downside potential, but objective is far more limited at this time.
Even though NOK is likely to get stronger over near future, it does not qualify as safe haven currency. It is too one dimensional, with strong correlation to oil prices. We can see how Krone collapsed with crude last summer, which is the opposite behavior than one would seek in a safe haven asset. Also, lack of liquidity, small market size, prevents it from being any real prospect for reserve currency of choice. More like darling of the month, a title that will likely be shared with other currencies for the most immediate future.
At the moment safe haven status of any one currency is questionable, at best. Thankfully, me, and most individual traders don’t need to fret over this. Since we don’t have several billion dollars to park safely over night again and again, this is of secondary consideration to us. We can afford to wait for a trade in any currency, no matter what its status.Mike K.

I’m glad this week is coming to an end. Of course, I say that every Friday and so do most people. Frankly, though, I need some time to go over charts and do some “profound” thinking. I can’t do it while starring at screen and looking for the next trade. Have this need to ponder over FED’s action on Wednesday, or rather the consequences, and try figure out in very broad terms what will happen next. In this context “next” means 6-9 months down the road. While most of my trading is short term, for those of you who don’t know, I also have a service for commercial hedgers and that requires long term view.
Some newspapers termed Wednesday’s action “Shock and awe”, while I see it as “Shock and … what?”. It didn’t hit me until few hours ago that in response to the news Dollar suffered biggest fall ever against the Euro since the creation of the single currency. When I look at it from this angle, only now realization comes of just how important this might be. Commodities surged wildly, with oil breaking above $50 mark. Markets are screaming “inflation ahead”, but how far down the road? Does it mean a start of another long term slump for USD? That’s what I mean, some heavy duty thinking is needed. Not that it will lead to any earth shaking conclusions, but at least I will have tried.
My short term trades will likely be as they are now, they mostly rely on shorter price swings. Like the onesThere was a buy order in GBP-CHF, which didn’t materialize. I’m leaving it in place for now. If warranted it will be discussed again. Aussie-Yen buy was executed at 65.65. I closed it about 45M ago, being done for the week. At 66.27 it was short of target, but still 62 pips ahead.

It really was not a bad trade. Nice move after the breakout, no pullbacks.  My trade in NZD-JPY started to get a little too long for my taste, so I closed it also. It was mentioned on these pages many times, most recently two

I took about 2 weeks from the time order was placed to execution. There is more potential here, but I’d rather look for it on shorter time frame. Besides, this was a nice move and I really don’t want to get into some sideways move or deep pull back. Also, 300+ pips is not bad at all, something I can live with. With this, all trades mentioned in this blog are closed now, I think. Some orders remain valid, like sell in EUR-PLN or the fore-mentioned GBP-CHF buy. Will start fresh on Sunday.

Mike K.

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hefeiddd

March 22nd, 2009 at 9:33 am

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hefeiddd

March 19th, 2009 at 10:00 am
Markets respond to FED.in: General, Trades

Entry happened to be at 1.6212, instead of 1.6250 so a small gain. Original plan was to

Small order was placed in AUD-JPY. Trying a buy at 65.65 and looking for 100 pips.  I hope that whoever reads it made some pips, or at least avoided losses,  yester


March 18th, 2009 at 9:50 am
FED decision.in: Best
Exit was


March 17th, 2009 at 10:23 am
AIG bailout a farce.in

Entry

We can see steady uptrend, with PLN loosing about 50% since last summer, very powerful move. This is different that the pattern which decided about EUR-SEK trade for me- that chart had a parabolic price run up. Here I don’t expect a fast price collapse, but rather somewhat orderly retracement. I don’t want to get into fundamentals here, the are numerous, but over time Zloty is set to appreciate against Euro, especially after this move. My goal is to find reversal pattern, on which to enter.


March 16th, 2009 at 9:17 am
Chinese Forex losses.

Three winning trades and 2 of them met the objective of 60 pips nicely, before reversing. It is not every day that the beast moves in such nice pulses. It is also not every day that a high probability longer trading opportunity presents itself in GBP-JPY. Today price almost reached 140.00. This is very close, on daily chart, to previous high.


March 15th, 2009 at 8:16 am
Swiss secrecy and Franc.



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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-6 17:30 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

March 13th, 2009 at 10:41 am
China is worried.

I really like thispost and it has played out. Already!

March 12th, 2009 at 9:56 am
Madoff’s plea and Swiss intervention.in: Best of Madness, General, Trades
.

This snap shot was taken yesterday,
Breakout buy order at 1.6060 was not

Did the same
Managed to

March 10th, 2009 at 9:51 am
Commodities are moving!in: General, Trades
Currencies took



March 9th, 2009 at 10:29 am
Economy fell of a cliff.in: General, Trades


This is it, two trades



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hefeiddd

March 8th, 2009 at 9:35 am
Ridiculous, sad and mundane.in: General, Trades
.

We can see ABC rever

Set up is


March 7th, 2009 at 1:59 pm
Record lows for Swedish Krona.
Monthly chart of EUR-SEK covers about 10 years. We can see the breakout above 10.0000 and massive run after. Price reached 11.8000 last week, another all time high. I put FIB
When parabolic moves to the upside reac
March 6th, 2009 at 11:34 am
Message to executives.in: General, Trades
Hard to believe how
I doubt

Price whipped both

March 5th, 2009 at 11:39 am
What does Bernanke know?in: General, Trades
Most of the week is gone

Yesterday I went long at 1.6620.
Entry was at 49.30 with an objective of 100 pips. Under current

EUR-

March 3rd, 2009 at 11:20 am
Forex reserves.in: General, Trades


It was a nice run  with entry
NZD-JPY was

I set up

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hefeiddd

March 2nd, 2009 at 11:16 am
Money pit.in:

Trade turned out nicely, but size was

Australian

March 1st, 2009 at 8:39 am
Conflict of time frames.
I trade JPY crosses a lot so they come up in this blog time and again. My view has been bearish Yen, or long crosses, due to the way they are quoted. In most instances, though, it doesn’t mean that I simply buy and hold them, but rather try timing my entries in order to maximize the gains while being in the market as little as possible. Sometimes in my analysis I come across a situation when I place a buy order even though it is possible that price might be going down first. Such is case with NZD-JPY. On 4H chart of this cross, nice breakout set up can be seen right now. Other Yen pairs have already gone through this line, more or less and are currently in a little different phase . Kiwi-Yen is lagging behind, but it provides additional buy opportunity. I want to include large charts in this post, that’s why thumbnail images.

If the price moves above 50.70 I want to be in on it, with first objective at 53.50 and second one at 56.00. On this graph both entry and targets seem nearby but, since an intermediate term chart is used, this will not happen tomorrow. Time will be measured in, probably, weeks. Hopefully sooner. At any rate, this chart is giving me bullish signal. Hourly chart, on the other hand, looks a little different. Here, by my analysis, the up move ran out of steam and some sell off is very probable. Opposite what 4H chart indicates.

Price broke through previous lows, went under 100SMA and even retested it already. These are indications of continued slide. Two charts of the same cross, two different analysis. Interestingly enough, this is the case for all JPY pairs at this moment. So, which view should be acted on? Neither one of

February 27th, 2009 at 11:31 am
It is not all depressing.in: General, Trades
From every corner of the world and

Beast behaved like GBP-CHF last few days and this level appeared to be solid floor. Well, next spike almost shook me out. At any rate, just closed it about an hour ago for 194 pips. Was hoping it would get to previous highs, or about. Not today.
I also kept on GBP-CHF with the trade from yesterday.

As we can see price have not reached level of the 1.6803 buy. I entered earlier, at about the same time that GBP-JPY. I’m done trading, so closed it for 90 pips profit. BTW, order

February 26th, 2009 at 10:57 am
My trades.in: General, Trades
In this post, with such clever title, I will discuss only my
As a reminder, I still have a buy order above 1.7050 with a larger objective, buy it doesn’t look like it will be filled soon.
Next pair I focused on was EUR-NZD. Couple of sell orders were placed and one of them even got filled.

Unfortunately, price movement in this cross was as sneaky and uninspiring as everywhere else, so I closed the position with few pips profit. At the moment no additional trades are planned here. Very good thing this week is almost over. Feel tired, charts are confusing, or maybe it is my thinking. I don’t see all that muc

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hefeiddd

February 25th, 2009 at 10:59 am
Roller coster ride.in: General, Trades

I decided to make a test trade here. Entry was at 1.6562 and objective is 1.6770-1.6800. Risk is 100-120 pips. Now all left to do is to wait for the swing up of the roller coaster. Previous buy order at 1.7058 still stands.
Another possible trade is in EUR-NZD.

Couple of sell orders, one at 2.5030 and another one at 2.4735. Target is about 250-300 pips. Hope this current choppy behavior comes to an end soon. I d


February 24th, 2009 at 11:20 am
Twisted stories.in:

At the time of writing price was at around 136. One of the possibilities was for it to retreat under 130.00, before resuming up move to maybe as high as 141.50. Few day later price indeed fell to as low as 127.15. I decided to go long at 129.94, with a target of 140.00. Couple of hours ago price almost got to my objective, but no exactly.

Oh, well. Not a 1000 pips, but 936 is not something to sneer at either. Market is above 140.00 now, and it will probably get to the previous high. Which brings next question- what now?

If the price makes new high, at around 141.55 (depending on the platform), next target would be 148.00 followed by 162.00. This is a daily chart, so we can’t expect the outcome overnight. Another thing is that a strong pull back is possible, or even likely. Not buying on a breakout could miss the move altogether(if it happens). Some compromise has to be made. One order is placed at 141.75 and another, smaller, at 128.00. This is one of the
February 23rd, 2009 at 11:19 am
Nationalization of banks?in: General, Trades

Shortly after the open price came close to touching the order but didn’t. Eventually it was triggered and the target was 1.5900. On this platform it was missed by 2 pips. I was watching it and just closed it there at 1,5908 or 71 pips.

Had to take it on another platform, since by this time had a number of Pound trades going. Entry was at 1.6750 and target 1.6950. It worked very good. Lately this pair has been

Only 2 trades. Not much to comment on other than the results are sub par relatively to how much the market moved.
Depending on wh

February 22nd, 2009 at 10:14 am
Friday close-Sunday open.Some time ago I noticed something interesting in market behaviour. It has to do with the way currencies close on Friday. If given pair ends the week strongly in one direction, chances are very good this will continue after Sunday open. This doesn’t happen all the time, but often enough for me to place an occasional trade. Continuation normally lasts first 4-6 hour of after weekend trading. This can’t be quantified with mathematical precision, but happens often enough to be of interest. The way some currencies acted on Friday I thought this relationship could be put to the test. Unfortunately, last 2-3 hour of trading negated this possibility.
This is how things turned out.

Swissy went on this crazy run which lasted few hours. Had the markets closed with candle marked “A”, or even an hour longer, I would be selling EUR-CHF at the open. Since move ran out of steam,
Want to sell it at 1.5980. Potential is small here, 80-90 pips, but I will give it a go and see what happens. Later in the week (maybe as early as tomorrow), will sta
February 21st, 2009 at 1:49 pm
Pound-Franc, what now?
British Pound has been

Since the original post was published, price made its way back to just above 1.7400 level. Notice how previous support in this are has become resistance now. This role reversal is called a “polarit

Intermediate term chart, 4H, is rather difficult to interpret, with couple of large swings both ways, but the price is getting progressively higher over time, so it has bullish undertone. One could get long here, but frankly, the best attribute
Now, this hourly chart is where I will look for long trades. It would be very tempting to simply buy at the open, but it is better to wait for farther price development.

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February 20th, 2009 at 11:24 am
Fake breakouts and Forex.

Price moved under 0.8795 and triggered my order. An absolute ( maximum) S/L would at be at 0.8915, but I rarely wait for that. Immediately after entry this chart clearly formed potential reversal pattern, so I got out for a loss of 37 pips. Once the action stalled at 100SMA and started to turn, I gave it another shot. Was hoping run would made on the low. As we can see it didn’t happen, I had enough of trading for this week and got out with small gain. Very good trade earlier and these two non events- the sum of my EUR-GBP trading this week.
Also in last post a buy in CAD-JPY.

This followed a decent trade couple of days ago. Another shallow
I’m bringing it up because there was a question about this trade in the comments. Here also price dipped well under entry level before resuming direction. In retrospect, I should have closed it with about 70 pips loss and then reenter at the same level as original buy. Well, it is what it is. Still learning to live with

February 18th, 2009 at 11:08 am
Few billions more.in: General, Trades
US automakers, namely GM and Chrysler
Price snapped sharply upward, triggering sell order at 0.8910 and then fell promptly. I got out at 0.8820, for 90 pips profit. Second sell order at 0.8801 was adjusted to 0.8795. If filled, objective still would be 100-110 pips.
Also, I’ve been waiting for weakness in Yen, which materialized. Here is a trade in CAD-JPY.

I chose CAD-JPY because loonie has been elusive for me lately. Entry was at 73.55 with 100 pips target. This coincides with an important high(on this chart). This

February 17th, 2009 at 11:38 am
Could this happen here?in: General, Trades
Yesterday I wrote about Japanese economy. Well, calling it “writing”
Shortly after order was filled market turned against me. Previous high as well as 100 SMA held, so I remained in it, but about 2 hours ago lost any residual confidence and closed it for 29 pips loss. Here is another reason why.

Another CAD cross, this one with EUR, behaved a little differently. Here the price took out previous high on this time frame. I jumped on the correctional move down after first bearish candle, for almost 100 pips. This pair behaves as if is setting up another move up. It conflicts with my prior opinion of strengthening CAD so I’m stepping away from the loonie now. Since market doesn’t want to move the way I want it to, time to wait until behavior is more recognizable by me. No sense fighting it.

Will see

February 16th, 2009 at 11:20 am
Japan in recession.in: General, Trades
With the President’s Day
One of the trades I took was in EUR-JPY. After some initial activity, price settled into range and failed to close the gap. I exited the trade couple of hour ago for minor gain. See the rules in original post.
Some trades did work as intended, though, like this one in GBP-CHF.

Trade made 100+ pips, but I decided against a countertrade after target was reached. Bad decision, it would have been another 150 pips. With Monday relatively slow, chances are for a little more activity tomorrow. Hard to say where this activity would manifest itself, but Yen crosses are always potential buy on a move above recent highs, GBP-CHF looks bullish above 1.6715 on 1H chart. Also after a failed attempt last week, my attention returns to Canadian Dollar.

I placed a sell order for AUD-CAD at 0.8005 , seeking about 110 pips. Seems like CAD is quietly gathering strength. Than again, that’s what I

February 15th, 2009 at 9:46 am
More on Candlesticks and Forex.was covered as it happened.

After a long and steep sell off large “hammer” formed at point “A”. Because of where and when in trend it formed, for me it was a “strong bullish candle”. I entered into long trade just above the high for this candle. This
At point “A” market created a “bearish engulfing line”. Since it happened after a long uptrend and I was looking for a trade to the downside, this became a “strong bearish candle” for me.  Price rebounded couple of weeks later. Once it approached 62% retracement of previous down swing I started to look for trades on the short side. At point “B” a variation of “evening star” developed. Following candle made it “strong bearish formation”. This resulted in a s
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February 14th, 2009 at 3:00 pm
Candlesticks and Forex.With the subscription they also provided very useful, and excellent, guides on the subject. Literature was great and the chart books were fantastic, too. Mind you, this was just before Steve Nison popularized candles with his book “Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques”. As a matter of fact, I think he was involved with CTS services. I do not know in they are still in existence, but at the time, their services were ground breaking. I scanned a page from one of the tutorials, from 1991, I think.

Here is the how actual chart looked like.

Click on the images couple of times to see full size. This is how candlestick trading before computer age looked like. The reason I bring it up is to demonstrate that I have been around this candles for a long, long time.
This type of charting was first used for rice trading in 1700’s Japan. They originally used as daily charts, so classical use of them would be for longer term perspective. When used in spot Forex trading, 24h market, they miss one of key elements used for their analysis- gaps. In this respect yes, candles lack one of the original dimensions, but it doesn’t make them useless. Another major misconception is using, or trying to use, each and every possible candle


February 13th, 2009 at 1:05 pm
Friday the 13th.in:

Somewhat to my surprise, the move came an hour after last post was made. I didn’t expect much till later in the evening my time, but orders had been in place. CAD-JPY reached its target for nice 120 pips. Had to spread my orders between different accounts, to avoid a big hit to any one of them in case I was wrong. Behavior of all JPY crosses was very similar and all of them presented good set ups.


Still felt that size of my trades was a little too big, so in most cases I closed half of them once about 50% objective was reached. It turned out OK and put this week into positive territory. Who says Friday the 13th is all bad? I might return to more active tracking of GBP-CHF and EUR-GBP after the week

February 12th, 2009 at 11:17 am
Crowded space.

This one, for example is giving mixed signals. This chart, hourly, suggests continuation of the down move, after this trading range. Higher magnitude chart, however, hints on possible reversal here. I find the picture a little confusing, in most pairs. Plan is to look for upside breakouts in yen crosses, but I doubt much
February 11th, 2009 at 11:24 am
Loonie blues.in: General, Trades
Way too busy yesterday to post anything. I was pouring over this new stimulus plan and tried to find a spot for me to get in line for some of that money. Why not? Since this whole mess started, government has been giving money away to banks, insurance companies and God only knows who else. In short, to people who have already proven beyond a shadow of doubt that they are incapable of running business. I’m just as skilled as they are, I mean, given some time any company run by me can also find itself in bankruptcy. Easy. Unfortunately, since my enterprise is still above water, I don’t qualify. Tough luck once again.
Just like in trading. My recent trades didn’t work out very well. As a matter of fact, they didn’t work at all. Last few orders I mentioned in this blog were in Canadian Dollar pairs. Sadly, Loonie didn’t cooperate. The worst one was in CAD-CHF.

I was using 4H chart for entry at 0.9575. Few hours later sharp sell off started and position was closed for 150 pips loss. Original chart, 4H, is a little distorted, so I leave it alone for now. Hourly chart looks a little better now and I’m considering entry at just above previous high. Another order placed was in EUR-CAD. This one, thankfully, never was filled. Price didn’t fall enough. To round up my Loonie trades, CAD-JPY position lost 49 pips.
Japanese Yen has been getting stronger for last two days . Currently congestion area is being formed. While it is not known at this time if the dontrend will continue or reverse, I will start looking for buying opportunities. Entry would be above most recent high. Here is an example.

Don’t know if GBP-JPY will be my first choice. It was chosen only to demonstrate the principle. Hope next few days are going to be better than the start of

February 9th, 2009 at 11:06 am
Swing trading.

One winner, one loser, with not much to comment on.
I’m not adding any new orders at the moment for trades on time frames suitable for these pages. To put it simply, I don’t see anything interesting right now,
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February 8th, 2009 at 10:19 am
Strange chart.in:long term charts is wrong. It is just not exactly compatible with my patience level, something maybe to work on. One more item to add to my long “needs improvement” list. If memory serves, there was one trade in this blog using weekly chart. A buy in GBP-CHF at the beginning of January, which produced good results. Well, this morning I found another interesting weekly chart. This one falls into the strange category. I mean, how often do you see large magnitude graph with this kind of profile? That’s how 5m charts look on news busy day.

Massive swings, sharp reversals and absurd volatility. I’m going to try a long trade here. Long as in to the upside and long in duration outlook. Small(very small) buy order was placed at 2.3070. Objective is 2.5100, large one for me. Size is minor in relation to my normal trading. Very unusual trade for me, but I think it has potential.
Back to routine. Want to try a sell in EUR-CAD. Canadian Dollar finished Friday on very strong note. This will probably carry over to early trading after the open. Just hope it will last long enough.

I used 4H chart for trade selection, but when(if) order is filled, 1H chart will have to be used for stop placement. At any rate, my objective is to gain 300

February 7th, 2009 at 11:21 am
Has beast hit the bottom?ipercentage of price than it does now.

There is technical indicator which measures this relationship. It is called a “disparity index” and it helps to spot extreme oversold/overbought conditions. It’s not plotted here because I like “clean” charts, as little clutter as possible. What typically happens in situations like these is that the price and the SMA of choice tend to gravitate towards each other. This doesn’t mean that GBP-JPY is going to rocket right back to 100SMA  but rather combination of MA moving down and price making its way up. On this chart, I think, they could meet in the area of 160-170 over next 3-5 months. On this time frame this would constitute a pull back, rather than reversal, since this down move has been of such extreme nature.
Daily chart makes a little stronger case for trend reversal. For me an important indication of reversal is for the price to get above most recent high/low. In this case it is previous high.

We can see that beast already tested recent highs on couple of occasions, market as A and B. These levels were taken out twice followed by establishment of new lows. Those breakouts failed. The more failures in the row, the higher probability that next one will be successful. On Friday price moved above136.00, breaching most recent minor high. This was the target of my trade in GBP-JPY using daily chart. Chances of the price not making NEW lows are very high. By “new low” I mean dropping under level of 118.80, but any pullback  to as
This chart doesn’t provide good stop for a long entry. Retracement to under 130 is possible. If I was still in a position from lower 120’s, then I could have tried to stay in. But as far as new trades here, well, not now. For that I’ll be watching even smaller time frames or wait for some pullbacks here to create additional support levels.
So, what is it? Has beast hit the bottom yet? In my opinion, probably yes, and GBP-JPY is in early stages of recovery. I don’t expect 5000-6000 pips run this y
February 6th, 2009 at 12:39 pm
The other dollars.in: General, Trades
Is it my
Entry was at 0.6362. Small pull back after entry, very typical followed by a beautiful up move. Objective of 120 pips was

Trade was closed few hours ago, that’s when this snapshot was taken, so it doesn’t include last four or five candles. My original objective was over 400 pips, however, this is the end of the week, trade was showing nice profit of about 300 pips. I would hate to see this cross get into sideways pattern for few days or maybe pull back, so decision was made to close it and be happy.
Last two day

February 5th, 2009 at 11:32 am
Yen stole the show.in: General, Trades
News of the day for Forex traders most likely were the Central Banks announcements. After all, both Bank of England and European Central Bank were making rate decisions a buy in NZD-JPY. I removed yesterday’s comments from the chart to make it more clear.

After a series of trades yesterday I placed another buy order at 46.21, with an objective of 150 pips. Earlier this morning this trade came intended conclusion, in a surprisingly swift fashion. While I didn’t expect the speed of this move, don’t have any complaints about it. I will leave this cross alone for now.
Back to Pound. For some time I’ve been carrying a GBP-JPY position. It is described in greater was based on daily chart and a week ago I exited half position. Today I closed the rest.

Objective was 136, but I couldn’t help myself and got out a little sooner. Turned out to just around the top of this bar, but this is coincidence, not any “knowledge” that the market would turn there. I was simply happy with it at that point. I’m pretty sure we’ll see 136 soon, maybe tomorrow, maybe next week. On Saturday I’ll try to take a longer term look at the beast and sketch out couple of scenarios.
I’m adding another order, this time a buy in CAD-CHF.

Plan is to get in on the breakout from this 4H chart formation at 0.9575. First target is 0.9800, and extended one at parity. I must stress, this is 4H chart so it might take some time and draw-down could be deep.
Some other  

February 4th, 2009 at 11:24 am
A lot of trades.in: General, Trades

Today happened to bring a lot of trades for me. Some of them were in crosses covered in this blog over last few days. While not strictly speaking the same trades, they were in the same

On this time frame price made a new low for the move at “B” which designated minor high “A” to be a threshold for turning bullish for me. This came at point “C”. This set up was loose and wide for my taste, so I left it alone, but this is where my NZD-JPY trade was triggered (covered next). Pullback inside the set up pattern is normal, but

Order was filled at 46.08. Few hours later price made another high (barely) but this move established a minor low between them which I considered a good place for a firm stop. Shortly after that’s where I took a loss of 68 pips. At about the same time trade in CAD-JPY was entered, I also went here at 45.02 and 100 pips objective. This pair turns out to be difficult for me recently, but another buy order is entered at 46.21 with 150 pips target.
intended trade in GBP-CHF using 4H chart, while being on a lookout for smaller trades on 1H chart.

Point “A” is next to a candle which happened yesterday about the time I was writing last post. It had absolutely bearish look and didn’t look as if anything exciting was going to happen on the bullish side. But I was tracking price with buy order which was filled at 1.6615. Price almost reached preceding major high (for this chart) and my objective of 200 pips was met. I must admit, that this turn of events was not expected after yesterday. Now must wait for trade on 4H chart. It is still valid.
I’m adding another Kiwi order in NZD-CAD.

Very simple trade, if it happens, buy at 0.6362 and objective 120 pips. One must watch Yen pairs for upside breakout, although it is a tough go. Swissy also looks

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