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发表于 2009-4-6 18:15
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December 8th, 2008 at 12:11 pm
Pound still loosing weight.in: General, Trades
Looks like our automakers are going to get some kind of government help. The details are not yet decided, but apparently deal is very likely. Well, it is rather logical. Once you start bailing out some industries, many others will want help too. They will have valid point - “If these guys received some money, why not us? We are just as important to US economy.” Problem is where do you draw the line? Dollar has been getting stronger, partly because of view that USA is proactive in handling current crisis. This perception might change into “wasteful spending” should Uncle Sam continue this process into other industries.
Meanwhile the Pound is still loosing ground. Granted, GBP had a decent run up against JPY and USD. At the same time it managed to set new low against EUR. This didn’t help my cause, or rather trade. Plan was to sell EUR-GBP at 0.8603.
Price broke and snapped against me. I pulled a plug on it at 0.8643 for a loss of 40 pips. Still think this pairs is about ready to stage a correction, so new order was placed to sell at 0.8571. Should the price keep making new highs, I’ll be moving sell order to just under most recent low. Target will depend on the preceding up swing, but most likely will be between 50-100 pips, with 1H chart being the primary time frame for now.
No a more inspiring note, NZD-JPY trade worked out very well. Price dipped slightly, not enough to to trigger my lower trade, but then made a nice run and produced few pips.
Target of 51.10 was reached, with only few pips to spare. I really like these instances when trades work out almost exactly as planned, makes me think like my work is validated. On the same token, I also know this will not happen all the time…
Since there were no gaps at the open to speak of, I didn’t have to baby sit additional trades and decided to take similar position in GBP-JPY. This was done on another platform, where I have some spare capacity. Buy level for this trade was also posted yesterday.
This produced 190 pips. This drop that followed in all JPY crosses creates a decent buying opportunity just about know, with likely run on previous highs, but I’m passing on it. Done for the day.
Tomorrow I’ll f
December 7th, 2008 at 9:36 am
Before the open.in: General, Trades
Economic calendar is really full for this week, but in all honesty, not much of it looks like real market movers. Possible exceptions are Japanese GDP numbers on Monday and Michigan Sentiment on Friday. Frankly, currency have calm down dramatically over last couple of weeks, so scheduled news releases might not produce massive moves, barring any huge surprises. This is good news for people who read charts, since we rely on rather orderly price flow. Of course there is always a chance for developing story to wreck havok with the markets, but this is something we have to learn to live with at any time.
The much beleaguered Pound showed some signs of life late on Friday. Short term indication of reversal is evident in EUR-GBP. This pair has just made an all time high and I think is going to take a break. Historically this has not been the best cross to trade, but over last few months daily ranges have increased substantially, and with large pip value, about 14.65 per pip on standard lot, it is attractive.
I have a sell order at 0.8603 with an objective of 0.8530. Decent target using 1H charts. Daily chart looks very promising as well. This reversal might be much bigger, as low as 0.8200. I’ll leave it for another post.
For all the talk(writing) I did yesterday about AUD-JPY, relatively short term trade I’m looking for at the moment looks a little better on NZD-JPY chart.
Kiwi seems a little bit stronger than Aussie and the set up is more to my liking. I’m looking for a breakout at 50.15, but if the price moves lower before I will be
December 6th, 2008 at 12:42 pm
Aussie-Yen.in: General
My last post mentioned pending buy order I had in GBP-JPY. The entry was at 134.95, seeking 100 pips gain. Order was filled while I was whiting the post. Here is what happened.
Rather surprising run took place, taking the price to well above 137 and meeting my objective in the process. It was nice way to finish the week. This loose end tied up, I’m going to take a look at AUD-JPY. Last week I followed it with mixed results, trying to take trades on the long side, using mostly 1H charts. After the massive sell off over last few months, I think this cross is building a long term bottom here. This would be the case for most JPY pairs. I chose AUD-JPY for this analysis because it made an all time low of about 55, a fate other currencies avoided, although GBP-JPY is not far away now.
As we can see on this monthly chart that price has stabilized after historic sell off. Trading ranges have contracted, which suggests potential end of the down trend, or at least start of a sideways movement until new fundamentals emerge and influence traders decision making process. This should be viewed with optimism by those who are bullish this pair, since important, long term turning points take rather long time to develop. Just look at the market bottom from 8 years ago. While jury is still out, it looks like early stages of similar process are taking place now. Monthly charts are not a tradeable time scale(not for me at least) but they are important element of trading landscape.
Zooming it to daily charts, we see that price is contained within the span of last leg down, an area between 74 and 55. I would expect this market to stay roughly within this this area for some time, maybe 2 months or so. The red zig-zag is not to scale, just a representation of approximate next moves. Somebody who trades triangles, pennants and wedges should be able to see them here. I don’t use these formations myself, since there is great degree of subjectivity in drawing them. We should see, on daily chart, price being pulled towards 100MA, or vice verse, depending on the point of view. Undercutting the low of 55 doesn’t necessarily mean resumption of down trend. Personally, I don’t see another major leg down of 1000 pips or so, but rather slow up turning process.
4H chart is more of my trading time frame, together with 1H graphs. On this time frame I like the price starting to “hug” 100MA, important step in turning. I’m watching areas at points A and B. These two levels must be taken out before we can start talking about longer term reversal. Incidentally, recent minor lows, 1 and 2, are not of any real importance here. The only level that matters on this chart is the low of 55. My trading here will be limited to long positions, mostly on 1H charts.
A lot of
December 5th, 2008 at 12:02 pm
Yen on the roll.in: General, Trades
News of the day was probably the employment data from USA. Net loss of 533,000 jobs was way above the estimate of 335,000. This the steepest drop since 1974. Despite that, dollar got stronger against most currencies. Most, but not all- Yen was even stronger. It is not the end of trading day, so there may be some more developments. Closing on Friday often sees a counter move in last few hours.
JPY’s strength didn’t suit me, since I was looking to short it. First short term trades in GBP-JPY, for which I use 5M charts.
There was only one decent set up, which I entered at 135.88, only to be stopped out almost immediately, for a loss of 55 pips. As of this writing one more buying opportunity is emerging. I have an order at 134.95 with an objective of 135.95, or 100 pips. Whatever happens, I will want to be out of it before the close.
The cross I’ve been following most the week, AUD-JPY, didn’t produce a trade.
There wa no buying opportunity, that I could see, so I stayed on the sidelines. Looks like all JPY crosses are rebounding right now, but I’m not placing additional trades, except for the beast buy I mentioned early. I’m rather surprised by this continued Yen run, it is not like everything is rosy there.
December 4th, 2008 at 11:36 am
Rough trading.in: General, Trades
No question about it, Thursday has been rough. Sharp direction changes on news of rates cuts. Sweden, EU, UK and New Zealand all cut rates. Of most interest to me today was the announcement from Great Britain and NZ. Once again, I don’t try to predict moves based on news releases, but existing positions might be altered depending on how the markets react to them. Not only did I trade my daily GBP-JPY long jumps, but also a short GBP-NZD position. This sounds confusing, but both crosses were traded on completely different time frames, seeking different magnitude of moves, so, in my mind, there was no conflict of interest. New Zealand financial authorities cut rates by 1,5% and BOE shed 1% to 2%. Here is how the interaction on GBP-NZD looked like.
My sell order was filled at 2.7420 and price swiftly moved towards the target of 2.7000, but came short at 2.7050. At this point my trade was up 370 pips. GBP rebounded on the news of rate cut and closed the trade at 2,7232, for a gain 188 pips. I was lucky I didn’t wait any longer. Even though, I consider this trade a success.
AUD-JPY trade was not as good. First, price just hit the buy level and I was in.
Right away things apart on my trade and I got stopped out for 50 pips loss. This pair has been moving in a range for last couple of days, so chances were, the range would hold. I zoomed in to smaller time frame, found another set up at just above 60.00 and managed to recover 50 pips. I still think there will be a breakout to the upside, so placed new buy order. It is marked on the chart.
Just to illustrate how things changed in Forex trading, think about how markets reacted to rate changes just one year ago. Currencies gained strength when central bank raised rates. Now it is exactly the opposite, slashing rates gets rewarded. Things are more convoluted than that, of course, nothing here is that simple. Riksbank (Sweden) cut rates today by more than consensus and the Krona lost ground. Go figure.
Tomorrow
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