一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-4-7 10:11

Written by admin
Posted April 4, 2009 at 2:46 pm

Hey Traders,
very signifiant week in the markets technically. Regardless of this being biggest 4 week advance in the markets sine 1933, charts suggest that there might still be some room on the upside.

ES emini futures have managed to close above fib confluence zone at 832.75 with authority on two consecutive days, after taking out the trendline connecting November and January highs there really isn’t much upside resistance to reaching 883.5 conservative target for this rally (see Rally Target post, chart below)
Weekly charts managed to produce 2 green trend candles for the first time in over a year, suggesting new longer term could be starting.

Even though there is still some room on the momentum chart, Weekly momentum has not been at such overbought levels since October and November of 2007.
Regardless of the large advance it seems that not many traders are buying into this rally as indicated by NYSE bullish sentiment index:

The same people who are continuously trying to sell into this rally could fuel further squeeze to the upside, with possibility of us reaching important retracement target, extreme overbought momentum levels on the weekly chart and overly bullish sentiment reading all at the same.
All that being said, this market could roll over and head for retest of the lows starting Sunday night, but the charts at the moment are suggesting more upside is in store.
Have a great weekend
Vlad

Comments
Filed under: ES - SP500 Emini, Weekly

Interesting Week in The Markets.. To be continued..

Written by admin
Posted April 3, 2009 at 3:47 pm

Hey Traders,
congrats on making it through another week, this was one wild week that went something like this:

Check back for daily, weekly update and some cool new stuff later this weekend.
Cheers and have a great weekend!

Comments
Filed under: Announcements, Daily, ES - SP500 Emini

April 3rd Intraday Analysis

Written by admin
Posted at 8:20 am

Update 3:30pm EST: daily AL tested again to the tick watch 831-834 range breakout for further clues
Update 3:20PM EST: daily AL touched to a tick. Watching for further direction and trend clues. break below 828.5 would be bearish, even though in last half hour technicals tend to go out the window
Update 3:05pm EST: 830.5 is daily 50% retracement, good place to watch for a bounce on the way down. Trends are getting a little mixed now. Gotta be careful during last hour
Update 3:01pm EST: ES is currently in AL at 833.50 (at previous high), target of which is 840, 840 is also 61% range expansion of previous range

Update 2:35pm EST: ES broke above 61% line of daily ambush area and is now grinding higher, no reason to get in front of this right now, will be looking for reversal clues.
Update 2:19pm EST:
ES continues to make new highs with no high $tick, 1000k share and 2500 tick both showing bullish trend, looking for break above 836 to further build bullish case.
Euro / EC is is likely to test 1.346 and then 1.35 considering path of least resistance is up
Gold continues to roll over slowly.
Update 2:00pm EST: Break above 836 would really help the bullish case in going to retest 844.5 highs. 836 - 827 ambush consolidation range will be important to watch for further market direction today or next week.
Update: 1:55pm EST: Bank index if flying and ES made a new high by a tick with no $tick confirmation. STill within previously defined range
Update 1:31pm EST:
Trends are getting mixed, watching for 833.5 - 827 range breakout clues
Watch euro 1.3410 as daily 50% ambush
Update 1:28pm EST:
Range expansions on the euro continue to work beautifully this week, here is daily euro chart with expansion off of 10 am ambush

Update 1:22pm EST: Gold is trading only $1 above march lows, this could get real ugly for gold bugs
Update 1:10pm EST: test of 828.25 ambush area should be key to determining further direction, break below 827 is likely to signal retest of the lows, below there few significant levels from previous posts today. Of course can never count out the upside in this market
Update 12:55pm est:
2500 chart rolled over bearish, very small time frame but could be a clue for another trend change, worked well at the lows. 100k is still green, 60min is red. Little mixed. After London close seems like currencies and commods are going to chill out for a bid.
Update 12:47pm EST:
that level flagged several hours ago continues to work well, 50% on the downside is 828.5, breakout of 828.5-833.5 range should give clues as to further direction.
Update 12:38pm EST: ES has tagged previously talked about 833.5 level to the tick
Update 12:22pm EST: pushing up against trading hours only ambush from the very highs of the rally. 100k share trend has turned green.
Update 12:06pm EST:
2500K share trend rotation was a great signal of trend reversal, currently stalled at 38% retracement from Globex highs, got trend change confirmation from 15 min chart, waiting on 100k contract chart to turn up too. We did have high tick of the day of 1224 on the recent highs.
Update 11:44am EST: If new uptrend continues with a break above 892.5 watch for 833.5 level as 50% retracement form the highs for further clues. Looking for more time frames to turn bullish to favor bullish set ups even more
Update 11:34 am EST: ES SP emini is giving some warning signs on 2500 tick chart of possible trend reversal, we also got new $tick HOD around the lows indicating we could be heading higher, all that said we are in lunchtime chop. Short be careful.
Update 11:18am EST: Trend Summary:

100k contract trend on es emini has been good to us once again with 1 hr chart stating to roll over. Euro trend is chopping around as it’s looking for further direction in ambush consolidation.
Update 11:12am EST:
Euro range to watch for further clues:

Update 11:05am EST:
After finding support at 38% retracement of the rally, euro / ec has ralied almost 80 pips and has found resistance at 50% retracement from 1.3519 high
ES emini has been drifting lower with next major support expected at 821 and 811. Very quiet day today, be careful as we get closer to the close
Update 9:21am EST:
Ambush short on es emini @ 836.75
Euro found support at previously mentioned 38% retracement level to a pip
Update 8:56am EST:
Support levels to watch on ES Emini + gap fill at 810:

Update 8:40am EST:
Possible Head & Shoulders on the Euro with a target of 1.3252 if the pattern doesn’t fail. If it does work out also expect resistance at the following levels on the way down - Short Term Euro Support Levels

Update 8:31 am EST: numbers are about in line with expectations, -663k vs -660K, prior 651k, market seems to like it at the moment.
Good morning Traders,
ES is trading at highs prior to the payroll numbers, any hint of positive surprise and this thing flies. Also consider that sentiment is that we get a sell off on the numbers and then squeeze right after (derived from many blogs etc). At any rate be careful, let thing calm down a bit at first.
Good luck and good trading to you today.

Comments
Filed under: EC (6E) Euro, ES - SP500 Emini, Gold (GC), Intraday

Friday’s Job # Sell Off Target

Written by admin
Posted at 2:47 am

Good Evening Nocturnal Traders,
if we do get a sell off prior or after 8:30am EST, 810.75 seems like a very high probability bounce area being gap fill and 50% retracement of the move up started on Wednesday.

Enjoy

Comments
Filed under: ES - SP500 Emini, Intraday

View more »

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-4-7 10:16

Short Term Euro Support Levels

Written by admin
Posted April 3, 2009 at 1:38 am

Good Evening Traders,
after such big move in the euro pull back is expected, here are few significant support levels to watch on further pullback.

1.3355-1.3364 if a fib confluence zone with previous resistance that should serve as support.
1.3317 fib confluence and 50% retracement of the recent rally.
Cheers

Comments
Filed under: EC (6E) Euro, Intraday

April 2nd Daily Market Summary

Written by admin
Posted April 2, 2009 at 10:33 pm

Hey Traders,
another day of of pain for the bears today as ES continues to grind higher at all cost (or at taxpayer cost). Since Wednesday’s low all pullbacks have stopped at 23.6% retrace from that low with only one to exactly 38%. I have been calling for a bounce at 827.25 in intraday analysis for that particular reaosn.

Heikin-Ashi trend rotation have been extremely useful past week on 100k contract chart, with some possible warning signs as it tried to reverse a few times today.
On the daily this was an extremely important close:

ES emini had an important close above the ambush confluence zone, orange trendline is expected to act as resistance on the way up. 883 is still the target of this rally, even though some minor pullback is expected from this key area.
Euro has traded above 61% retracement of the rally and suggesting more upside could be in store for the Euro, possibly retesting the highs of the recent rally:

8:30am EST payrolls in the morning, be careful trading around that time, should be in for another interesting day in these wild markets.
Cheers

Comments
Filed under: Daily, EC (6E) Euro, ES - SP500 Emini

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-4-7 10:17

April 2nd Intraday Analysis

Written by admin
Posted at 6:30 am

Update 3:38pm EST: target of box trade is exactly 23.6% retrace of the rally 827.25

Update 3:20PM: 863.50 was tagged and selling off, looking for 837.5 and 831 to trade for further direction
Update 3:07pm EST: Failed new high / possible intraday double top would be confirmed by trade below 831. 827.25 is still the level to watch on the way down. 100k share trend is chopping around and no confirmation of bull trend, current indication bearish.
Update 3:00pm, ES pulled back to 836 ambush long area, watch it for short term clues. Be careful, in the last hour.
Update 2:40pm EST: ES has violate 61% zone of the ambush, all trends still bullish, 100k share trend is putting in first green bar, retest of highs likely, looking for ES hod to be confirmed by $Tick hod
Update 2:18pm EST: Euro has pulled back, watch 1.3424 level as its 23.6% retrace of this rally and previous resistance
Update 2:06 pm EST: considering possible trend change 836.5-837.75 short ambush area will be key
Update 1:58pm EST: if Ambush zone gives watch 827.25 for support, 23.6% from the lows of recent move
Update 1:40pm EST: Critical point for ES right now, at daily 50% retracement in 832.75 area, with 100k share trend producing a sell signal

Update 1:09pm EST: Daily Ambush Long 832.75, if we get that low will be a critical level to watch. 827.5 is 23.6% retracement of this 2 day rally
Update 12:27pm EST: Euro making new highs, ES Bumping up against resistance of November / january highs:

Update 12:02pm EST: Euro broke out of consolidation and seems to be heading for highs, if highs broken next target 1.3532 (61% range expansion)
Update 11:46am EST : just generated 2 red 2500tick bars for the 4th time today, 3 previous ones failed to get anything bearish started. Just a heads up
Update 11:11am EST: Slow grind of pain for the bears continues, still no tick confirmation, Gold continues to roll over to new lows, still awaiting $tick confirmation, 842 is weekly R1, doesnt seem there is a limit to how high this could go today.
Update 11:03am EST: ES emini continues to grind higher, there is approximately 0.00 reasons for longs to sell or shorts initiate short positions with such strong tape
Update 10:52 am est: new high not confirmed by high tick, seems like this will just keep grinding higher. Wont be considering any short set ups until 100k trend suggests start of a bear trend. Euro looks tired from all the whipsaw today, continues consolidating
Update 10:33am EST: as expected there has to be at lest some sort of pullback a such significant double top & retracement level from November highs. 2500tick has been red for past 5 bars, 100k and hourly+ still green. Note that since yesterdays low many highs retraced 23.6%, so retracing to 820 (current 23.6% level) would still be very strong uptrend for the markets.
Update 10:18am EST: New ES highs not confirmed by new high $tick
Update 10:16am EST: Gold has just traded in the 800s for the first time since that huge move from under S3 to above R3 in hours. Euro is consolidating around the ambush zone from the highs. ES is looking extremely strong still, no signs of weakness yet.
Update 10:02am EST: came within 1 tick of ambush from November highs confirmed by new high $tick on the new high. Tape remains very bullish internals and trend wise.
Update 9:57am EST: watch out for the 10am number, overall globex high of the rally830.5, euro traded above 61% retrecement of the rally making a more bullish case to retest the highs.
Update 9:42am EST: another huge gap on the daily’s, 832.75 marks the beginning of ambush zone from November highs:

Update 9:35am EST: Euro at 1.344 50% retracement form the highs, watch that level for further direction
Update 9:05am EST: Range expansions continue to work on both the euro and es this morning, check out EC range expansions from the recent ambush. If highs are broken, next possible target 1.3532

1.3500 on the Euro is also 61% line from the highs of the rally
Good Morning Traders,
rather eventful overnight session in anticipation of m2m and ECB, check out this beautiful range expansion on ES!

You simply can’t ask for much more from mr Fibonacci.
Also another exhibit of perfect TA, this cup and hangl pattern, which after break out reached it’s target to a tick and retraced good 5 points, after that braeking new highs , retesting them and heading for new highs on more occasions finding resistance at the rally highs. Excellent technical trading overnight.
In Daily analysis I flagged consolidation, breakout out of which should determine further direction of the euro, after breaking out of the triangle euro went right up and found resistance at 50% retracement of the whole rally and bounced for quick 80pips within minutes:

Please see Euro rally targets for previously flagged targets of this particular rally with target of second Fib confluence being hit to the tick!
Big time rally in world markets as well

Thanks for visiting and good trading to all
Cheers

Comments
Filed under: EC (6E) Euro, ES - SP500 Emini, Gold (GC), Intraday

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-4-7 10:20

April 1st Daily Market Summary

Written by admin
Posted April 1, 2009 at 5:10 pm

Hey Traders,
very bullish today in the markets, initially seemed that markets were going to roll over and look for retracements of the whole rally down below, all that was thrown out the window when “better than expected” economic data and your tax dollars went to work.
Here is our good friend 100K contract bar:

As pointed out in Intraday Analysis, after ambush zone from 807 highs to overnight lows was violated at 797, 100k bars signaled potential trend and market took off since then, retracing no more than 23.6% of daily move until it retraced exactly 38% on 3:15PM EST low.
Daily chart has put in second green trend candle suggesting continuation to the upside, retracement to 766 might be out of question prior to retesting the highs of the rally,

Euro has been really quitelately consolidating before a huge move that should be triggered by overnight ECB decision.

Here is a closer look at this Euro consolidation, watch for breakout for further direction that should resolve very short term, keep in mind though, that with ECB meeting overnight, technicals go out the window short term, except for very major levels.

Finally here is the end of day Euro and SP500 market trend summary:

Trends for euro are rather mixed since market has been in a very narrow range past days, but they do seem more bullish than bearish. Sp emini looks bullish on all time frames, it will be really interesting to see what happens next. Be careful trading overnight considering big ECB news.
Cheers

Comments
Filed under: Daily, EC (6E) Euro, ES - SP500 Emini

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-4-7 10:22

April 1st Intraday Futures Analysis

Written by admin
Posted at 9:13 am

Closing Bell: Closed at the highs, another nutty day in this market.
Update 3:52pm EST: Another new high followed by higher high with no high $tick. Last 23 minutes should be interesting. EC seems to have paused in daily ambush zone.
Update 3:27 pm EST: EC/6E 1.324 is daily 50% , watch for reaction in that area for further direction
Update 3:18pm EST: Looks like we could have big H&S setting up , that recent low is also daily 38% retacement with daily 50% at 794
Update 2:51pm est: every new high since 796 today retraced almost exacly 23.6% from overnight lows, current 23.6% is at 802
Update 2:45 PM est : new $tick low of the day, broke through the bottom of the channel from couple updates ago. Larger time frames (usually slightly lagging) not indicating trend change yet. Be careful on both sides of the trade going into last hour.
Update 2:26pm est: check out these fib range expansions, 812.75 is next target considering we have had a high not confirmed by new high tick

Update 2:16pm est: new high no new $tick hod, 809.5 break of ambush zone with no further ambushes till rally highs. All time frames trend bullish. Euro continues pre ECB snoozefest
Update 2:08 pm EST: new highs confirmed by high tick, no particular reason to get out of longs yet
Update 1:55, new highs, not confirmed by new high tick, looks like retest of previously mentioned levels is imminent. here is a new channel to keep an eye one:

Update 1:40pm EST: Trading above yesterdays highs and above 809 could get very painful for the bulls
Update 1:30pm EST: backtest of trendline successful for now, larger trends not showing any weakness just yet. 2500 share is chopping between bullish bearish with small market gyrations, will keep you posted.

Update 1:01pm EST: bullish case you be backetst of previous resistance of a trendline and 800 high

Bearish case is that we are still in 803 ambush zone
Update 12:55pm est: 800 is a level to watch (ambush and previous resistance), break below means we are likely to retest daily 50%.
Update 12:31pm EST: Watching ES uptrend channel for clues in the ambush zone

Update 12:15pm EST: ES is now above the trendline and in 803-809 ambush zone, looks like retest of yesterday’s highs is likely.
Update 11:19am EST: euro came back and made a lower low in the ambush zone, with most time frames rolling over to bearish, mixed signals, but trend and weakness suggest 1.3167 before 1.3289
Update 11:10: ES found resistance from trendline connecting two recent highs, watch for 803 on the way up, 791 previous overnight double top and 789.5 daily 50% on the way down. 2500tick trend has reversed to red, 100k still green

Update 11:02am EST: euro tested 1.3228 and found short term support, looking for retest of 1.328 for completion of little sloppy inverse H&S, failure of the ambush zone probably means heading back to 1.3167 or even 1.3120
Update 10:41am EST: broke above smaller ambush, retest of 803 ambush zone and yesterday’s highs seems likely, break above those levels could result in a cruel joke on the bears

Update 10:28am: magic green box held short term, 787.75 is 50% retracement from daily lows.
Update 10:18am: market seems to be very strong, 100k share trend is trying to close second green bar. Breaking above 797 could mean retest of 803 ambush zone

Update 10:16am: after better than expected econ data ES is pushing up against some overnight resistance and ambush zone, this level is critical in determining where this goes next, gap fill is also in this area.

Update 9:37am: Gap Central! After breaching yesterday’s lows, first resistance on the way down is 766.5. Watch for short term resistance at 785.25 on the way up.

Update 9:18am: possible inverse head and shoulders forming on the euro, pullback to 1.3228 and retest of 1.33 would form a perfect right shoulder, shall that h&s play out the target of that formation is right into 50% retracement of the whole down move, see (Euro Rally Targets)

Good Morning Traders,
rather eventful overnight session for the euro, going down 120 pips and recovering most of it, looks like EC is heading for a retest of 1.334. ES is a lot weaker than the euro this morning, down 10.0 on the overnight session. 793.25 is still a level to watch if bulls were to make a run at this. Levels from daily and overnight analysis have not changed.
Pre-Open Trend Summary:

EC Trend is bullish on all time frames, suggesting retest of 1.334 rather likely. ES Signals are rather bearish, will be watching for trend changes through the day, bearish set ups will be favored for now.
Good Trading to all

Comments
Filed under: EC (6E) Euro, ES - SP500 Emini, Intraday

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-4-7 10:24

Early April Fools Joke’s on the Bulls

Written by admin
Posted at 12:42 am

Update 3:02am:
Ambush level to watch 793.25 , from Tuesday highs to overnight lows:

That 793.25 level on ES is also previous support on the way down towards the close, break above 796.5 makes retest of 803-809 ambush zone much more likely
Good Evening,
here is a quick nocturnal trader update, no new set ups have come up, market trends for ES and Euro are 10 for 10 bearish. Note how well 100k contract chart marked trend reversals past few days, its becoming one of my favorite time frames to watch for possible trend changes:

Nothing to get very bullish about trend wise just yet, check the daily update to see significant levels on the way down.
Good night and good trading

Comments
Filed under: EC (6E) Euro, ES - SP500 Emini, Intraday

Tuesday March 31st Daily Summary

Written by admin
Posted March 31, 2009 at 4:53 pm

Hey Traders,
Today traded very technically, regradless of few dirty ambush shakeouts on ES. Not much changed from Today’s Intraday Analysis, all the levels remain the same. Euro has traded very techincally with today’s high and low being squeezed in an ambush consolidation.
Here is a bigger picture look at ES:

We are now in an ambush consolidation short term, with successful test of 803-809 area we have retraced 50% of daily gains in the last hour. Where it gets interesting is that target of the 803 Ambush is right in the area of 38% retracement of the whole rally (see chart below), which is a likely retracement level before resuming higher to final target of 883+.

Euro has been trading very nicely today, here is what we have:

Euro traded right up to ambush confluence zone at 1.3354 (see Euro Rally Targets analysis from last night). View from here on is simple, trading in 1.3230 - 1.3354 range until broken. If break out to the upside, likely target and stiff resistance at 1.3425, is it breaks lower Euro is like to head back to 1.3114. With failed tests of those extremes resulting in further range expansion.
Congrats on making it through this tough month
Cheers

Comments
Filed under: Daily, EC (6E) Euro, ES - SP500 Emini

Ambush Trade Webinar

Written by admin
Posted at 4:52 pm

Ambush Trade is one of the highest probability trades on all time frames in all markets . I talk about ambush trades a lot in my analysis posts, in case you were wondering what in the world that is, here is a 2 hour webinar from Ambush Trade King himself David Halsey from EminiAddict, he has too a particular trade set up and has made it his by combining it with few other strategies, this is really worth while watching:

I took a lot from Dave and have modified it to fit my personal style, more on that in “Trading Strategies” section of the blog once I get some time to put it together.
Enjoy

Comments
Filed under: Education, Webinars

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-4-7 10:25

Tuesday March 31st Intraday Futures Analysis

Written by admin
Posted at 8:52 am

Update 3:45pm EST: Merill and Goldman are simply pounding ES in the SP500 pit. Next Support @791.25 - 50% ambush from yesterday’s low
Update 3:36pm EST: Who could have thought, made it right to the bottom of the channel and tagged the 796.5 level to a tick!
Update 3:15pm EST: ES is pulling back from the ambush zone, be sure to watch the channel, ambush and previous support at 796 on the way down shall we get there:

Update 2:40 PM EST: stopped out of ES short, was a high probability set up and got out B/E , today’s trend remains bullish (obviously since we are at highs). Last hour should bring some fun. Note that we didnt have a new high $tick on the last ES high, suggesting that new high is likely.
Euro is at daily ambush zone, watch that 1.3287-1.33 level for further direction
Update 2:22 PM EST: ES tagged 803.25 , sold my long and got a limited risk short entry, probably last trade for the day considering end of quarter/last hour magic that could take place. Living to trade another day.
Update: 2:02PM EST: Thanks for the trend for keeping me on the right side of this chop, euro has been very ambush friendly all day today. Key zone for ES starts at 803 as indicated in previous posts. Shall we break above 809, retest of the highs becomes very likely. After London close EUR action has slowed down, so we might be stuck in 1.323 - 1.335 range for the rest of the afternoon.
Update 12:57EST: Short target on the euro of 1.323 reached. Watch for a bounce there, this is key area for determining if we go back to the lows or back to rerest 1.335s
Update Noon EST: good thing to watch - support line of this wedge

Update 11:50am: Super ES chop continues, would like to see 803 or 786 for higher probability entry, trying to avoid making broker too happy in the chop zone (market in blue)

Current Trend suggests we see 803 before we see 786

Update 11:28am EST: Euro has just retraced half of todays down move at 1.3298
Update 11:07: watch for 1.323 support on EC/6E

Update 10:56am: Got a nice bounce on a short ambush from fridays trading hours only close:

Update 10:30am EST: ES is heading for new highs, once again watch for 796.25, 798.5 and major 803 ambush level on the way up
Also, worth noting is daily trend, considering we had a very bad day for the markets yesterday, today’s daily trend suggests rally resuming (target still 883), if we close about 15-20 pts bellow current level, that would produce second consecutive bearish candle, bearish signal

Update 10:25am EST: choppy, dirty ambush action in ES. Euro confluence has been front run by a few ticks, next resistance on the way down~1.3297 with 1.323 being 50% retracement from the low of yesterday’s move
Update 9:35am EST: please note that starting today you should roll over to M contract in GC, as that is now the most liquid contracts, GCM09
Update 9:18am EST , pre-open trend summary:
Rather bullish action overnight in world markets:

Market Trend Summary:

Both ES and EC trends are bullish right note, note how accurate Euro trend changes have been on the hourly/120minute time frame in the past several days.
Good Morning Traders,
ES Futures are up 9,5 this morning and Euro has worked it’s way all the way up first resistance zone (see Euro Rally Targets)
First ES ambush resistance is expected 3 points above here at 796.25

With next ambush at short at 798.50, and a bigger one at 803 from the high of this rally.
Good Luck trading today, don’t forget its the last day of the quarter, so we could see some interesting action into the close.

Comments
Filed under: EC (6E) Euro, ES - SP500 Emini, Gold (GC), Intraday

« Go back — View more »

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-4-7 10:26

Market Internals Webinar

Written by admin
Posted March 31, 2009 at 8:50 am

One of the most underutilized tools in trading, especially by new traders are Market Internals, here is a link to a very informative 2 hr webinar from Emini Addicts as to how utilize market internals in your trading:

Enjoy

Comments
Filed under: Education, Webinars

Drama in Trading Blogosphere

Written by admin
Posted at 8:45 am

You do have to be crazy to be a trader, especially a consistantly successful one , looks like quad witch, chopfest, Fed magic month is taking a toll on the best of them:
Slope Drama
Evil Drama
Suggested resolution:

Cheers

Comments
Filed under: Random Thoughts, Uncategorized

Monday March 30 Intranight Futures Analysis

Written by admin
Posted at 12:51 am

Good Evening Traders,
there wont be many updates tonight, but just wanted to post this chart to watch for a short term support in 783.25 area, which also happens to be previous resistance and trendline support.

Note that the level would change shall ES make new high overnight
Cheers

Comments
Filed under: ES - SP500 Emini, Intraday

Euro Rally Targets

Written by admin
Posted at 12:27 am

Hey Traders,
as pointed out in most recent end of day trend summary, smaller time frame trends were turning up and now all intraday trends up to 120min chart are looking bullish.

Shall the rally continue, here are two very high probability resistances/targets for the Euro (EC) that should be considered by anyone long at those levels:

There is a Fib confluence in 1.3352-54 area (38% of the recent move down & 50% from the recent high/ambush from which the euro broke down). Second confluence area being 1.3411-1.3425 (61% from recent high , 50% of the recent move down, significant previous support)
Cheers

Comments
Filed under: Daily, EC (6E) Euro, Intraday

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-4-7 10:31

Daily Emini Summary - March 30

Written by admin
Posted March 30, 2009 at 4:41 pm

Hey Traders, rather boring day today, unless you were initially short or were playing the channel on the tick chart posted in intraday analysis. A lot of ambushes were dirty and tape was overall choppy.
Here is end of day trend summary:

Euro trend has been bearish all the way since Friday and has found support 20 pips away from 50% retracement of the rally from the lows. 15minute, 5000contract, and 60 minute charts put in at least 2 green bars suggesting at least short term bull trend could be in the making while 120 minute is putting in first green candle.
On ES Hourly and 120 minute trend is still red going back to 825s on Friday (great sell signal), with 100k contract chart producing three consecutive green bars suggesting possible short term retracement.
Here is a bigger picture:

ES has clearly broken down from the recent wedge formation on the Daily’s by gaping down below the support line, same goes with 100k contract chart where it traded right through it overnight. Key levels to watch on the way are 766.5 and major level at 746.50 on the way down. And on the way up 803 is 50% retracement from the highs, if we break above 810 (~61% from the highs) would fully expect to retest the highs.
Pull back was due after such an extended move, and are expecting pullback to at least 770 before resuming higher ultimately reaching 883 ( see Bear Market Magic Fib), while in this wild bearmarket we have to be open to all views, history suggests such scenario.
There are two contradicting outlooks considering bullish outlook on both the dollar and the markets, but charts suggest we could see another short term rally in the Euro regardless of economic conditions:

Euro has reached 50% retracement and put in a doji, which cold be sign of short term trend change. EC also put in first red trend bar which is a warning sign of new starting bearish trend. Pullback before continues move lower is expected over the next several days.
Cheers

Comments
Filed under: Daily, EC (6E) Euro, ES - SP500 Emini

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-4-7 10:31

Monday March 30 Intraday Emini Analysis

Written by admin
Posted at 9:07 am

Update 3:17 pm EST:
testing the top of daily channel now

Update 1:50pm EST:
New lows, no new low $tick, if you were to play the box, target of this trade is 774 (bottom of lower box)
Update 1:33pm EST:
ES Box Trade anyone?

Update 1:19pm EST:
ES continues to shop around the lows, watch for 1:30pm EST reversal period or other miscellaneous Turbo Tax Timmy magic
Smaller time frames starting to turn up on the euro right above 1.31ambush, something to watch, especially if larger time frames follow, could get quiet a snap back:

Update 12:21pm EST (Failed):
Fiat & Chrysler alliance news just came out, and ES is giving 4th try to reverse the trend, at least short term. Beware shorts

Update 11:51 EST:
at least gold is having fun:

Update 11:33am EST:
catching the falling chain saw game continues for the bulls, looking for new low confirmed by new low $TICK, failed short ambushes and some time frames starting to reverse the trend. Euro is showing some strength while ES making new lows.
Update 11:11am EST:
Obama speaking on Auto plan now, ES is pushing down on respective LRC channels on many time frames, suggesting the move is getting really extended to the downside short term, will be watching for 15s, 100k share etc to start turning green and some short ambushes failing

Also, EC/6E came within 20 pips of previously pimped 1.3095 level and seems to be finding support there art least short term
Update 10:12AM EST:
Looks like ES emini is finding support at 23.6% retracement of the rally from the lows, and testing yet another ambush

Update 9:33AM EST:
ES has clearly gaped down out of the wedge

Good Morning Traders,

ES had a rather eventful overnight session trading as low at 789.5 or down 26.50 on the session and has broken through an ambush longs at 808.5 and has found support in 796-788 ambush area. Backtest of the rising wedge support would be right in the ambush short area from the highs of the move.

Euro traded down withing 60 pips of 50% trecement of it’s recent rally, anybody holding on to shorts should really watch for that 1.31 level.
Good luck and good trading!

Comments
Filed under: EC (6E) Euro, ES - SP500 Emini, Gold (GC),

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-4-7 10:41

Sunday March 29 Intranight Analysis

Written by admin
Posted March 29, 2009 at 6:48 pm

Good Evening Traders,
just posting some things as I see them
2:06AM EST:
ES is now pushing down against 10,000,000 contract LRC channel, suggesting the move is getting overextended to the downside short term, be careful entering new short positions and watch for a bounce in 796 (ambush) 798 (S2) area
1:18AM EST:
Euro continues to roll over, next big support is expected at 1.31 level, if we get there today or tomorrow that would be unanswered 650 pip move with daily’s getting rather oversold, careful holding on to any shorter term short there
1:16AM EST:
61% line of the recent ambush long failed, also looks like trendline could be beraking, next bounce target 61% extension and large ambush long in 796-796.5 area
Good/Scary Read:

How The World Almost Came To An End at 2PM on September 18

On Thursday (Sept 18), at 11am the Federal Reserve noticed a tremendous draw-down of money market accounts in the U.S., to the tune of $550 billion was being drawn out in the matter of an hour or two. The Treasury opened up its window to help and pumped a $105 billion in the system and quickly realized that they could not stem the tide. We were having an electronic run on the banks. They decided to close the operation, close down the money accounts and announce a guarantee of $250,000 per account so there wouldn’t be further panic out there.
If they had not done that, their estimation is that by 2pm that afternoon, $5.5 trillion would have been drawn out of the money market system of the U.S., would have collapsed the entire economy of the U.S., and within 24 hours the world economy would have collapsed. It would have been the end of our economic system and our political system as we know it.
We are no better off today than we were 3 months ago because we have a decrease in the equity positions of banks because other assets are going sour by the moment.

9:54pm EST:

ES has now entered the highest probability long area since the plunge to 787 on Wednesday, keep in mind that there is still a short ambush from 820 working with target of 804.5, which happens to run right into the trendline of the recent wedge and still wouldn’t violate the long ambush zone.
7:56pm EST:
On 24 hr chart we are trading below support

Trading hours only chart should also be considered, since the high on Trading hours only chart is 1003 , as opposed to 1004.75 on 24hr chart, which puts that ambush at 832.75, which will probably be more watched level as opposed to 833.5 small difference, but something that should be considered

News:
General Motors Chief Rick Wagoner Said to Step Down
6:45 PM EST:
It surely doesn’t take a genius to figure out that after Euro dropped 500 pips from the highs of the rally that trend change might be in place, but here is an interesting nugget as to what happened last last few times Euro rallies got red heiken-ashi candle. Usually I like to see at least 2 in a row and at the close of the day , not 45 minutes after future open, but something to keep in mind:

Comments
Filed under: EC (6E) Euro, ES - SP500 Emini, Intraday

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-4-7 10:47

23.6 The Magic Fib of This Bear Market

Written by admin
Posted at 2:13 pm

Hey Traders, while doing hw on the charts for the week ahead, I found something very interesting. 23.6% retracement of the whole bear market was a great target for all the snapback rallies we have had to date, especially once the bear market became very extended. If history repeats itself, after seeing the recent low , we should see at least 883.5 on this snapback rally, see the charts below:

Exhibit 1:

Exhibit 2:

Exhibit 3:

Exhibit 4:

Exhibit 5:

And now the biggest question of all:
Exhibit 6?

Even though we have already rallied an incredible amount, as traders we have to be open to every possibility, especially such as history repeating itself.

Enjoy

Comments
Filed under: Daily, ES - SP500 Emini, Weekly

Weekly Summary for March 30 - April 3

Written by admin
Posted at 12:31 pm

Even though I personally do not trade long term, or even swing trade, it is always good to know where we are on the weekly time frame:

ES has put in a first green weekly trend candle, if we do resolve to the upside this week producing another green candle that would be rather bullish with potential to go as high as 940 to retest those highs. Also worth noting, ES is at overbought levels not seen since October 2007 on the weekly charts, even though not at extreme overbought levels just yet, so more upside is certainly a possibility.
Weekly Euro:

Euro weekly put in a what looks like could be a reversal / topping candle.

Comments
Filed under: EC (6E) Euro, ES - SP500 Emini, Weekly

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-4-7 10:48

Daily Summary for Monday March 30

Written by admin
Posted at 12:00 pm

Hey Traders,
futures open in about 6.5 hours and kick off a big week which will give us some more direction as to where the market will go intermediate term, with trying to chop everyone up in the process of course.
Here is what trend summary looks like at the close on Friday March 27:

After much chop the past several trading days, ES 120min , 60min trends are bearish with 100k contract trying to close second candle green suggesting we could be starting a new short term bull trend, trend is a great indicator for possible new trends starting after an extended move and not so effective when trading and chopping around in contracting range as we have been. After huge down day with closing under S2 for the euro no surprise most time frames are looking bearish.
On the daily the big ambush zone of 1.3571-1.3834 prevailed and euro found support at 38% retracement of the recent rally:

Trend is still green, even though euro has clearly broken down, another very significant even is that this was first close below the low of the high candle of this rally (only true way to catch tops, more on that in education posts)
Here is a drill down on the Euro on intraday time frame:

After this big break down euro is still flirting with the bottom trendline of the megaphone formation that has been a great guide for price action over the past two weeks. After such big move at least a small retracement is expected with two possible resistance areas, firstly ~1.3425 area with purple line being previous low , usually a high probability bounce area by itself, which just so happens aligns with an ambush trade. Another area is 1.3497, which is ambush from the highs of the rally which also happens to be at previous support area which has been tested numerous times in past week.
Now lets have a look at ES dailys

Since last post no trendlines have been violated and Friday was an inside day suggesting big move to come very soon, “crossroads” of all the trendline are crossing on what will be Wednesday, so I am expecting very large move by then that should give us some sense of direction.
Now lets take a closer look at ES emini:

ES is currently in a working ambush trade from 792.50 with a target of 838, which is right in the ambush zone from 1004 high to 662.5 low. Es has also been trading in a rising wedge with breakout/fakeout to the upside and then a breakdown being a rather high probability scenario. For short term clues watch the 808.75 level which is 50% retcement from Wendsday lows, would fully expect a bounce in that area, especially if that level ligns up with the bottom trendline of the wedge when reached. Same goes for 820, break above 822.50 would really increase the odds of retesting the highs of the rally and entering 833.5 ambush zone.
Good luck this week and keep checking back for more daily and intraday updates!

Comments
Filed under: Daily, EC (6E) Euro, ES - SP500 Emini

« Go back — View more »

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-4-7 10:49

Friday Morning Trends / Update

Written by admin
Posted at 9:14 am

Good morning again,
doesnt take a genius to figure out that with futures down 11 and euro down over 200 pips that most trends will be pointing down , and most of them are down the line:

Also keep in mind that we are approaching crossroads on the ES as mentioned in Last daily update, still no warning signs from the Trend, but keep an eye on the bottom trendline throughout the day

Good luck today, should be another wild one
Vlad

Comments
Filed under: EC (6E) Euro, ES - SP500 Emini, Intraday

WOW Euro

Written by admin
Posted at 8:32 am

Wish I was up for this 300 pip overnight move, but had to get some sleep, the set up even though a little dirty on the previous post, did mark the top of the move within 25 pips.
Good morning and good trading to all today, will keep you posted
p.s. Euro Appears to be in the ambush zone and flirting with some support lines from the whole move up, beware of a bounce at these very oversold levels and trading below R2

Comments
Filed under: EC (6E) Euro, Intraday

Ambush At Resistance On Euro

Written by admin
Posted March 26, 2009 at 8:35 pm

Update 9:42pm: Ambush level got a 19 pip bounce as of this writing, enough to hit first target and secure limited risk trade on remaining position.
Ambush setting up on previous resistance of yesterday

Comments
Filed under: EC (6E) Euro, Intraday

Thursday March 26 Summary

Written by admin
Posted at 5:34 pm

Another interesting day in the world of trading today with ES resuming its recent uptrend-at-all-cost and closing at the highs while EC closed at the lows, sure dont see that every day.

Here is how futures mutliple time frame trends ended up on the day:

ES 120 minutes has stayed bullish the whole day with 60 minute and 100,000 contract charts only briefly flashing sell signal before turning back bullish within 2-3 bars, ES closed with all 5 time frames looking bullish 2500 contracts up to 120 minute.EC on the other hand started out the day bullish through pre-market and later rolled over, finishing the day with all 5 time frames flashing bearish.

Lets drill down on EC now, on the daily’s EC looks like it is forming a bull flag after a 1000+ pip run up, in the ambush zone none the less.

As you saw from trend chart, situation seems a little more bearish and we could soon have a red waning candle on the daily generated if this continues to make new lows. Intraday it was a very tradeable today off of 987 tick chart:

In pre-market I flagged the triangle/wedge that was forming and alerted of first breakout being a false one, after bouncing around within the boundaries 2 more times EC broke the upside, backtested previous support and then crashed right through for 100+ pips, on the way down with another excellent set up of testing top of the triangle support one more time, with it being right around 50% retracement of the whole move, high probability trade considering even the 38% fib was being highly respected. -23% Target of that ambush was hit to the tick with several seconds to go in the trading session.

Here are a few channels to watch on larger time frame for EC, both of these channels will need to be broken to the upside if this will indeed play out as a bull flag:

ES emini continues to look very strong:

While ES remains impressively strong it is approaching crossroads and next week or so should tell the tale of where this heads intermediate term. Trend is still strong and green closing at the highs with a big green candle, nothing could be more bullish, also the very steep uptrend line intact since the lows has been successfully tested yesterday and sprung ES for quick 35 pts (PPT or whatever you want to call it, it’s still price that pays). 833.5 is an important level , being 50% retracement of the whole move from 1004.75 to the lows, shall that fib be broken along with two resistance lines while staying above current uptrend line, aka into the top quadrant, that would be very bullish for the markets most likely resuling in retest of 940s to complete what could be the head of bigger inverted head and shoulders. Breaking into right or bottom quadrant will likely result in more chop with possible retest of the lows.

In summary, very strong day for ES, especially considering dollar strength today, there is no particular reason to get in front of this rally just yet.

Cheers

Comments
Filed under: Daily, EC (6E) Euro, ES - SP500 Emini

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-4-7 10:50

Thursday Market Trend Summary

Written by admin
Posted at 12:43 pm

Update 12:43 EST: While ES has remained rather bullish at kept plugging away at new highs , up until this moment, EC charts are starting to look more bearish.

Update 8:00 am EST:
So far ES is in uptrend / bullish on all 5 time frames, euro is bullish on all 5 times frames also and has broken out of the wedge to the upside just a few minutes ago (EC WEDGE)

Comments
Filed under: EC (6E) Euro, ES - SP500 Emini, Intraday

EC Wedge

Written by admin
Posted at 10:31 am

Update 11:30am: this one played out false break out way and paused at the pivot.

Euro is consolidating into a tighter range, usually followed by a large move. Trading above the pivot and overall bullish outlook on the Euro, suggests it could be to the upside, either way watch for break either way and be ware of fake-outs of this particular formation

Comments
Filed under: EC (6E) Euro, Intraday

« Go back — View more »

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-4-7 10:57

		搜索
热搜: macd K线与均线飞狐分时指标共振指标分时橡胶牛股炒股入门

一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

浏览过的版块