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发表于 2009-4-7 16:19
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Tags: EUR/GBP, EUR/USD, European Central Bank, Jean-Claude Trichet, quantitative easing, QueenThe Queen and Trichet… The Battle of the Channel Continues!
Posted on April 1, 2009 at 20:08 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Greetings, Everyone to Tonight’s Battle!
We once again stop by the English Channel on our way home from the G20 “Conference/Party” and check on the latest Swimming Match of Her Majesty, The Queen Pound Sterling… and Her Skillful Adversary… who we shall name “Euro Trichet” !
“CVJ!… You were not even there!… We were the largest Flag-Waving-Sign-Carrying Protesters around!” “We vilified The Queen for interrupting our BBC Comedies on the Tellie… and drew funny faces on our Signs of Trichet for all to see!…..WE we were EVEN interviewed on NEWSNIGHT!!!”, the CVJ Fan Club Guys say with deep rebellious satisfaction.
“That is interesting, Guys… as I wondered who cleaned out the Commodity Accounts last week…. You Boys paying for your Big Trip!” , I say….. hee hee hee… 
In all seriousness, the ECB is up against the “Proverbial” Wall moving forward… despite the expected and largely “Price-In” Rate Cut from 1.50% to 1.00% for its’ Overnight Rate.
In our “Match” here… Her Majesty once again looks to be “Ahead of the Curve” in Her Swimming Skills… as the Euro continues to weaken in the Immediate-Term with Mr. Trichet not “Cranking The Throttle” for a little Policy Momentum.
Here are the Daily and Hourly Views since we have not had a visit in a while… so give the Captures a Click for Commentary.
Post-Time is a bit “early” for me @ 1:00 GMT… as I wish to check in for another Blog Update rather soon after the “Technical Perspectives of the Majors” Report at 7:00 GMT.
The ECB is notoriously “independent” in truly adhering to an “Inflationary-Following Model” … but now… it has deep Global Pressure to enact some sort of “Uniform” Quantitative-Easing Policy.
Of course… My Friend, Trichet, says nothing in his usual Tactful fashion.
Perhaps that Tact is needed more than ever these days in terms of Clear and Decisive Action.
Tags: EUR/GBP, EUR/USD, European Central Bank, GBP/USD, inflation, interest rate, Jean-Claude Trichet, quantitative easing
U.S Data Points Slightly Positive… Although Rangebound Action Continues
Posted on April 1, 2009 at 10:58 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Greetings again, Everyone!
Our overall Data Points come in slightly positive as Month-over-Month Pending Home Sales, ISM Manufacturing PMI, and Month-over-Month Construction Spending clock in better than expected… although the ADP Figures and pending NFP Numbers Friday may simply keep heavy “weight” on any significant U.S. Dollar Appreciation.
As we continue with some Volatility across our Units… we still are “caught” in these Larger Macro-Ranges, as the Dollar Itself remains “muted” with this Data.
The Sentiment of the G20 Activities, and especially the European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision, Press Conference, and Trichet’s Commentary are keeping the EUR/USD Unit in check through tomorrow.
The G20, at this point, may go either way in terms of a massive “Reactionary’ Stance… as in my personal opinion… the Protests literally seem more “interesting” than the actual Content of the Conference itself!
We have not really had any significant ground on the Euro… although on the “Flip Side”… USD/JPY still attempts to reach for the Coveted 100.00 Handle.
Here are the Hourlies again of both Units, so give them a Click, as always, for Commentary.
Post-Time is 16:00 GMT.
At this point… we simply maintain Patience as Observation continues.
A always, I will be back with you later, or at least tonight, for our “Big Blog Update”, as we head into a heavy Day of Activity tomorrow!
Tags: consolidation, continuation, Cross-Rates, EUR/USD, Home Sales, ISM, USD/JPY, Yen
Equities Fall at the U.S. Open while EUR/USD Attempts to Hold
Posted on April 1, 2009 at 8:52 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Greetings again, for another Update!
Plenty of Volatility keeps the European Session /U.S. Session Overlap moving along with Variants of Risk Appetite and Risk Aversion… meaning “Noise, Noise, and more Noise”…hee hee….
EUR/USD is still a bit “Clean” with Price Behavior on the Hourly…as we are “caught” in a Consolidative Channel of 1.3160’s to roughly 1.3300/1.3330’s.
While in the Immediate-Term… we look to Cap here with, perhaps, some “Triple Toppish” Behavior… in the Near-Term…we look for potential Dollar Weakness ( and Yen weakness as well…) to continue moving forward.
EUR/JPY also is finding Yen Strength in the Immediate-Term moving forward… and it will be interesting to see how Construction Spending, ISM , and Pending Home Sales out of the U.S. may simply “Bleed Out” to the Yen from the Dollar… as these two “Old Friends” are walking largely “In Concert” lately…
Here are the Hourly Views of both, so give them a Click for Commentary… and Post-Time is 13:50 GMT.
Of course, I will be back with another “Double-Duty Before-and-After” Update when the rest of the Data Points hit in about 10 Minutes!
Tags: channel, crude oil, data point, EUR/USD, housing, Institute for Supply Management, Inventories, risk appetite, Risk Aversion
Yen Slides on Tankan Data Points and Weak Repatriation
Posted on March 31, 2009 at 21:53 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Welcome to Wednesday, Everyone!
The Japanese Confidence Sentiment Survey, Tankan, comes in with it’s fastest fall on Record…posting a reading of -58 with Big Manufacturers… and a 34-point decline off of -24 in December’s Diffusion Index.
The Yen itself, as well as the Dollar, have Risk Appetite back in View with Repatriation and “Safe-Haven” Sentiment coming to a close, if you will.
The USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, and the GBP/JPY all peel off on “Corrective Counter-Intuition” with Profit-Taking of the Month and the Quarter.
Here are the Hourly Views of all three Units, so give them a Click for Commentary, as always… and Post-Time is 3:00 GMT.
We will certainly check on these during the European Session ( barring any Connection Issues, hopefully…) and I will be back with you in a few hours as 7:00 GMT for the “European Technical Perspectives of the Majors” Report!
Tags: EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, Inflows, Japan, Outflows, repatriation, sentiment, USD/JPY
The Majors Consolidate as the Yen itself Continues to Weaken
Posted on March 31, 2009 at 14:11 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Hello again, Everyone!
A brief Update to see where we are as we head into the “Doldrums” of the day, and look towards the Asian-Pacific Sector in a few hours.
Our Majors, in general… ( Euro, Swissy, Aussie, etc.)… are beginning to clearly quiet down although the USD/JPY and most of the Yen Crosses continue to grind away with Yen weakness.
Let’s have a look at Dollar Yen and notice some Areas of Confluence on an IntraDay basis.
( The 50% Fib Variant is “buried” under the Transitive Rollover…but clocks in @ 98.88)
Give the Capture a Click, and Post-Time is 19:05 GMT.
Of course… we will discuss the looming Rate Decision out of the European Central Bank as there appears to be resistance to following the “Quantitative Easing” Model…. more on that this evening!
Tags: Japan, Major Currency Pairs, transition, USD/JPY, weakness
Euro and Swissy Reach Key Levels… Will We Find Continuation?
Posted on March 31, 2009 at 9:46 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Greetings Again, Everyone for another Update!
( My apologies for the slight delay… as we are experiencing some Connection Issues…)
Our Two Friends, here… EUR/USD and USD/CHF… have continued on with their Price Levels that came into View… so we now see if Continuation with Directionality can continue.
With the Final Trading Day of the Month…we may expect “Extensions and Truncations” of Price Action across the Board… with Institutional Activity squaring the Books for the Month, Profit-Taking, and Covering… so always something to be mindful of.
The Asian Sector did kick into Gear with this exact “Plan of Action”, if you will… as we saw Appreciation in the Dollar Yen Unit as well as the Pacific Dollars of the Aussie and the Kiwi moving forward.
Here are the Hourlies once more of the Euro and the Swissy… so give the Captures a Click…and Post-Time is 14:45 GMT.
I will be back with you later for more Updates, ( if my Intermittent Connection Issues stay resolved…), as we move on with our Day!
Tags: cluster, confluence, continuation, EUR/USD, Fibonacci, USD/CHF
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A Blog of Commentary and Ideas from an FXstreet Premium Member by Tim Salem (CVJ
