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发表于 2009-4-7 16:26
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Tags: confidence, Data, dollar, EUR/USD, fundamental, Germany, paradigm, risk appetite, signify, technical, USDDollar and Yen Regain IntraDay Strength But Still Consolidate
Posted on March 16, 2009 at 13:54 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Hi Everyone!
We area bout 1 1/2 hours ahead of the NYSE Close… and we basically have “Muted and Quiet” Price Action across the board with our Currency Units.
We hear and digest rhetoric from Obama and Giethner on plans to stimulate Small Business in America as part of the Stimulus Initiatives, TIC Data, Capacity Utilization, and Industrial Production all come in under the radar, and we are still working with “Mixed” Sentiment moving throughout the day into evening for many of you.
Here is one more check on the Euro and Euro Yen, so give them a Click… and both appear to have more Upside Potential left on these corrective moves.
If both fail… then lower Supports may, indeed, come back into view as we move into the Asian Session.
Post-Time is almost 19:00 GMT.
I will certainly be back with you this evening, and we will see if any of our Price Appreciation and Risk Appetite Behavior, indeed, continues on into Asia-Pacific Rim Activity!
Tags: Asia, channel, consolidation, dollar, EUR/JPY, EUR/USD, intraday trading, range, resistance, small business, Stimulus Plan, support, Treasury, Yen
Consolidation Breaks on Rhetoric for the EUR/USD and EUR/JPY
Posted on March 16, 2009 at 6:58 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Greetings Again!
As we discussed in last night’s Post… we can often see “Rhetoric” becomes Market “Catalysts” just as effectively as actual Data and Statistical Releases. In fact… in my personal view … from a day-to-day perspective… “Rhetoric” effects the Markets more acutely than Data Points in many cases.
This is why do the Central Banks use it so much… with their “Signature Tool” of “Jawboning”!… hee hee… 
U.S. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner is talking of another new “Plan” to remove Toxic Assets and wipe the slates clean from U.S. Banking Institutions with some sort of “Partnership” with Public and Private Assets.
While this is an encouraging concept… as always… we will see… as one clear “Entity” we do need to see return to the Playing Field is the whole concept of Private Equity on all levels.
Of course we can consider the above and other kinds of rhetoric as the “Catalyst” for the Risk Appetite we are currently seeing in our Euro and Euro Yen Units… although in my view … Technicals were leading us here in the first place.
Here are the Hourlies again with Commentary, so give them a Click.
We are about 9 hours after our last Post… and the “consolidation breaks” are rather clear.
Post-Time is almost 12:00 GMT.
Our next Update will really bring these Upside Momentum activities into focus… as we will be able to see if we simply breach the strong IntraDay Resistance Areas on both Units with confidence… or depreciate back towards the equally-as-strong Support Areas!
Tags: Ben Bernanke, breakout, catalyst, consolidation, Data, EUR/JPY, EUR/USD, Tim Geithner, Treasury
Data Points and Two More Cousins: EUR/USD and EUR/JPY
Posted on March 15, 2009 at 22:12 in Uncategorized by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Greeting to a new week, Everyone!
We continue on this week from last weeks’ fallout of Macro-Event Risk… as the FOMC Decision is on course this week, as well as the Bank of Japan, the G20 Meeting Rhetoric, and the BoE MPC and RBA Meetings Minutes.
TIC Data at 13:00 GMT may be interesting… considering the recent Press Conference from Wen Jiabo in China, and his blatant concerns about Chinese Inflows and Assets in U.S. Treasuries.
While all of you know I am not a Fundamental Trader in terms of “Style”… I do enjoy and find it essential in my own work to be enlightened as to what is going on.
As we know… any Data Points… be they actual Release or “Rhetoric”, do affect the Long-Term Cycles of the FX World, as they give us a “Bellwether” in looking out several months concerning general ”Sentiment”.
In the Interim… we simply look to the Technicals in our Tool Box and move forward.
At the risk of annoying my “Partners”… the CVJ Fan Club Guys… I wish to visit the Euro and the Euro Yen out on my Longer-Terms Views to see where we are.
“CVJ!… We knew the IntraDay views would not last!… We knew you would break down and go to your Monthly and Weekly Views… so we have a message for you… Off with your Head!…”
They should be on TV, shouldn’t they… a real trio of characters for the stage, these guys…hee hee…
Here are the Monthly, Daily, and Hourly views of the Euro, so give them a Click.
Post-Time is 3:15 GMT.
Failure in the near-term may propel a stronger Dollar to the 1.2800 area of Support, followed by 1.2760’s/50’s and the lower Channel Line.
A clean momentum push through the 1.2960’s will meet with Major Resistance at the 1.3000 Handle in which short-term Bearish Views may be favored… as well as highly probable Options Barriers.
EUR/JPY is moving in a very similar fashion, and here are the Daily and Hourly Views.
A Bearish View will really only come into favor here on the Hourly if we can breach the 124.00 Handle, while Bullish Views will gain significant confidence violating the 128.00 Handle with ease.
So here we are… Continuation and Consolidaton.
A Catalyst is needed… so we will check back on these two during the European Session, as always!
Tags: central bank, Data, EUR/JPY, EUR/USD, fundamental, news, paradigm, technical
The Queen and Her Cousin Go For a Swim
Posted on March 13, 2009 at 14:00 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Greetings Everyone for this week’s final Post!
I decided to do a “late” Post about 2 1/2 hours before the NYSE Close… and see where we are with Cable and Pound Yen.
Despite the U.S. Trade Deficit clocking in “better than expected” from -39.9B to -$36.0 B… and Michigan Sentiment coming in at 56.0 instead of 55.0… the Dollar overall is still rather “muted” and “capitulatory”.
We have simply see the Dollar aspect of Cable… and the Yen aspect of Pound Yen follow Technicals with “normal classic” corrective behaviors.
We are still in these larger Macro-Downtrends… and the Dow and S&P500 are no different.
I will say this again as I have mentioned before… in my personal view… these are all simply “Dead Cat Bounces”… “Bear Market Rallies”… and any other Label you may come up with.
In the same fashion that we could not tear down the Canadian Dollar all year a couple years back with a few days of Dollar strength… and in the same fashion we could not tear down the Carry Trades overnight in 2006/2007 with Yen strength… our current Climate is roughly the same.
These massive “Ski Slope” Downtrends will not disappear in the Foreign Exchange world… much less the Equities and Indices world with simply a few days, or even a few weeks for that matter… of strength.
Here is an Analogy I think of quite a bit:
If we are climbing the stairs…or descending the stairs… does the Banister and top or bottom half of the Stairs simply fall away?… on that “next” few steps of your feet?
Of course not.
While the possibility of a massive Paradigm Shift certainly exists… for now… it appears to simply be Macro Short-Covering to me and an idea of “too much too fast”….
On to our Title here… while both of these Units are still “Flag Potential”… at this point in the day at the end of the week, they are simply moving into quiet consolidation for the weekend.
Hence…. they both are just “swimming laps” in the English Channel back and forth…
Here are the Hourlies once again, so be sure to give them a Click… and Post-Time is 19:00 GMT.
Have a fine weekend, everyone… and I will see you on Sunday, as always, for the Sydney Open!
Tags: counter trend, Dow Jones, equity, Foreign Exchange, FX, GBP/USD/trend, indices, Standard and Poors
Appreciation Comes Though for GBP/USD and GBP/JPY
Posted on March 13, 2009 at 7:11 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »
Greetings, again Everyone!
We check back in with the significant Fractal Appreciation with Her Majesty and Her favorite Cousin, Pound Yen!
As of Post-Time, we are approaching Key Levels to either Breach… or face Rejection… in the next few Hours.
While the Pound itself is obviously in Play here… in my personal view… the Dollar and the Yen sides these Units are more revealing to overall Sentiment indication.
We continue to “weave” in and out of Risk Appetite and Risk Averse climates…so we will see how this continues along in our day, as we do have Data Points on the way.
Let’s get to the Hourlies, so give them a Click… and Post-Time is 12:15 GMT.
Now… keep in mind the Appreciation we are seeing is “Counter” to the Trends here… as we have Rallies in these larger Macro-Views!
So… use Caution as we move forward, as several of the dynamic and static Resistance Areas may “cap” Price Action.
Of course… I will return later as the Data Points become digested and see where we are heading into the weekend!
Tags: appreciation, dollar, GBP/JPY, GBP/USD, Price, Risk Appetitie, Risk Aversion, Yen
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