一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

Tags: Aussie, Canadian, chart patterns, currencies, dollar, euro, FX, Loonie, swiss, trading, trend channel, triangleThe Week Ahead - Let’s Get Technical!
Posted on December 7, 2008 at 23:50 in Fundamental Analysis, News: Scheduled and Breaking, Technical Analysis by Jerry FurstNo Comments »

By Jerry Furst - Sr Analyst “1st on Forex” at Investors Education Network.comWhat Now!
Last week I went fundamental - and with good reason. There was more news than I could keep up with - scheduled or otherwise. This week I will stick to the charts - unless if we get some major fundamental issue - like Charlie Gasparino deciding to drive some poor equity into the ground. Bottom line - be ready for anything in this enviornment!
Euro in The Box - Nice Consolidation Zone

Dollar Swiss Continues in Uptrending Channel
Usually the USD-CHF is a Mirror Image of the USD-CHF, however the status quo seems to be in question as the continued Dollar strength against the Swiss is not dargging the Euro down - for now…

The Week Ahead Calendar and Webinar - Click Here
Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

Tags: currencies, dollar, euro, FX, swiss, trading


Mid Week Report - Fundamentally Speaking


Posted on November 28, 2008 at 16:21 in Technical Analysis by Jerry FurstNo Comments »

By Jerry Furst - Sr Analyst
Investors Education NetworkThe US Dollar Rallies against the Swiss and the Euro
Head and Shoulders

The 2 Hour chart on the Euro shows a decent Head and Shoulders Pattern that completed after taking a Thanksgiving Day pause. The Chart Below Shows the Inverse Correlation between the Euro and the Swiss back in sync - However - the other majors did not participate and consolidated

Inverse Head and Shoulders ?

Above USD-CHF chart shows the mirror image of the EUR-USD, However - this Inverse Head and Shoulder has not reached it’s patterns target price. The Euro-USD basically has played out the pattern - so we need to watch the USD-CHF to see if this will complete.
Pound Does Not Participate

The other majors did not participate in the move shown with the Euro and the Swiss - As one example the above chart shows the continued consolidation on the Pound - Dollar.
The Week Ahead - Webinar

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US Consumer Confidence Surprises To The Upside
Posted on November 25, 2008 at 23:54 in Fundamental Analysis, News: Scheduled and Breaking, Technical Analysis by Jerry FurstNo Comments »

Good News and Signs Emerge
The US Consumer is feeling more optimistic, and the President Elect continues to show he is working hard at putting together his team to address the US and World economic situation.
The Currencies React
At 8:30 the news hit the charts that the US GDP came in at the consensus number of -0.5% growth.

The Pound Sterling rose from 1.5000 to 1.5400 in an hours time!

Dollar Losing to the Loonie? Chart above shows a possible beginning of a new Stair Step pattern down.
Jerry Furst is Sr Technical and Market Analyst and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a an active trader, educator, mentor, and trading coach to Select Clients  Click Here for your Free Trader Self Evaluation Survey.
Tags: Canadian, dollar, GDP, Loonie, Pound, Presedent Elect


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hefeiddd

Posted on November 21, 2008 at 5:54 in Technical Analysis by Jerry Furst1 Comment »
Greenback Rally Strides On
My last post on November 18th showed the USD-CHF getting to a pinnacle point of decision as the chart showed a beautiful upward trend channel that was getting narrower and narrower – so a trend line break was immanent
  
Charts Past and Present
The chart above shows that the Dollar decided to break out to the upside vs the Swiss as the Chart below shows the EUR-USD continued its descent in the existing trend channel.

   
   
The USD-CAD took the highroad breaking out of a classic triangle formation and now pausing about 500 pips higher than where she stood two days earlier on Nov 18, 2008
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Click Here to Watch Live Coverage of the US GDP Sponsored by   Tue - Nov 25Jerry Furst is Sr Technical and Market Analyst and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a an active trader, educator, mentor, and trading coach to Select Clients Click Here for your Free Trader Self Evaluation Survey.



Tags: charts, dollar, EUR-USD, euro, FX, Greenback, Technical Analysis, trading, USD-CAD, USD-CHF

CPI - Housing Starts - FOMC Minutes - To Break Trend?
Posted on November 19, 2008 at 5:14 in Fundamental Analysis, News: Scheduled and Breaking, Technical Analysis by Jerry FurstNo Comments »

Dollar Rally Pauses - Charts Tell The Story
The Dollar may be poised to retrace as several bad numbers are out again so far this week, GM is still teetering on either Bankruptcy or Bailout, and Wednesday is bringing CPIand Housing Data that may poke the charts around a bit. Take a look at the following three 4 Hour charts of the Euro, Loonie, and Swiss pairs versus the US Dollar.

Euro at the Crossroads - Triangles and Trend Chanells (click Above)

USD-CAD - Trend Chanell or Triangle Break (click above)

USD-CHF: Upward Trend Coming to the End of the Road?
Jim Rogers, “It’s Happening Again!”
The famed trader speaks on the US Dollar, Real Estste Speculation, and more…
http://www.ft.com/cms/893ac9c8-757e-11dc-b7cb-0000779fd2ac.html?_i_referralObject=929363526&fromSearch=n  From www.FT.com

hefeiddd

Tags: Bush, Communique, current crisis, Declaration, Dr Strangelove, G20, markets, ObamaDollar Acting Schizoid Ahead of G20
Posted on November 14, 2008 at 3:05 in Fundamental Analysis, News: Scheduled and Breaking, Technical Analysis by Jerry FurstNo Comments »

By Jerry Furst - Sr Analyst atInvestors Education Network.comDollar Acting Schizoid Ahead of G20The “normal” correlations of currency pairs was anything but – as the Euro surged from the 1.2500 range to over 1.2850, while the Pound Sterling lost ground most of the day closing relatively unchanged at around 1.4800. Meanwhile the Carry Trade continues it’s gyrations as the dollar gained ground against the Yen while losing against the Aussie. The Canadian Loonie also lost it’s marbles dropping from 1.2400 to 1.2100, All this within a traders dayze.
Review of the Charts - 3 Days Later   
(Above)  Aussie Maintains Consolidation but Tests Support (click on Charts to Enlarge)
   
(Above)  Dollar - Swiss pair continues upward trend while creating a new lower support line
   
Above-  Euro makes almost a double bottomand stays within Trend Channel - (click to Enlarge)
   
Above - Pound Rides the Lower Trend Channel - Testing Below  (click to Enlarge)
President Bush Addresses Manhattan Institute
The currencies seemed to get reactive around the same time as President Bush addressed the Manhattan Institute mid day. His speech seemed to be a reminder of why the Free Market system must survive despite the changes that must be made to move into the interconnected global markets. Bush may have been alluding to the Bretton Woods agreement when he stated that decisions and changes must be made that, “Better reflect the 21st century not those based in the 1940’s” – which leads me to discuss the….
Historic G20 Meeting starts in Washington
UK Prime Minister Harold Brown has been quoted as saying that decisions over the next few months will reshape our world for the next few decades or more. President elect Obama is sending former secretary of state Albright to monitor the discussions. In my opinion he is missing an opportunity to understand the players and issues – yet his appearance may have been a distraction - so It’s a toss up.
Tensions may run high, and with 20 nations sovereignty on the line - the odds are that this meeting will be a meeting to hold more meetings. UN-less some agreement has already been drafted behind the scenes –
The news on Thursday morning was bleak
New Weekly Jobless Claims were far worse than expected with 516,000 new additions to the unemployment rolls and the US Trade Numbers showed a large drop in exports. But that did not stop the market from surging ahead.
The Good News
The MBA Mortgage Purchase Applications rose 9% and Refinancing applications were up 16% as lower interest rates are filtering down to the buyers that need to sop up the liquidity of the flooded housing market.
Friday Brings Retail Sales and Consumer Sentiment


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Jerry Furst is Sr Technical and Market Analyst and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a an active trader, educator, mentor, and trading coach to Select Clients  
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Tags: Bretton Woods, charts, CHF, dollar, EUR, euro, FX, G20, GBP, Obama, Pound, Sterling, Technical Analysis, trading, UN, USD


The Week Ahead - Currencies Pause Before…
Posted on November 11, 2008 at 5:04 in Fundamental Analysis, News: Scheduled and Breaking, Relevant Ramblings, Technical Analysis by Jerry FurstNo Comments »

By Jerry Furst - Sr Analyst Investors Education Network.comThe Week That Was: Nov 3 - 7 Last Tuesday’s Historic US election of Barack Obama was followed by disappointing reaction from the markets, with ADP employment numbers confirming contraction on Wednesday. Thursday  got started with a monster 1.5% surprise interest rate cut by the Bank of England, and Friday closed the week with Non Farm Payrolls painting a bleak picture, and then to close out the week we had Consumer Credit jumping 6.9 Billion in September.
The Week Ahead Nov 10-14This week gives us a breather in scheduled news until Thursday when International Trade numbers coe out with the Weekly Jobless Claims. Friday has import - Export prices, with Retail Sales at 8:30, followed by Consumer Sentiment and Business Inventories at 10:00pm. The equity markets may be tested as AIG and GM will be trying the patience of the media.
Currencies Look Paused For a Break OutA look at the majors on a Daily or 4 Hour chart shows some triangle and consolidation patterns. Submitted for your approval Note the charts below.  

The Aussie - US Dollar looks Like Consolidation

The Euro Testing Support
US Dollar Approaching Resistance versus Swiiss Franc
Pound Sterling Approaches Support of Descending Triangle and has a Trend Channel to follow.

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Jerry Furst is Sr Technical and Market Analyst and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a an active trader, educator, mentor, and trading coach to Select Clients  
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hefeiddd

Tags: charting, currencies, FX, resistance, support, Technical Analysis, trading, trend channel, triangleObama Wins–Market Sells the News-”Rattle ya Jewlery”
Posted on November 6, 2008 at 4:31 in Fundamental Analysis, News: Scheduled and Breaking, Relevant Ramblings, Technical Analysis by Jerry FurstNo Comments »

By Jerry Furst - Sr Analyst Investors Education Network
Pre Non Farm Payroll Numbers Disapointed early Wednesday asInterest rate Cuts of 50bps are expected from the BOE and ECB Thursday. No shock to the  charts are expected - but expect the unexpected.
November 5th, 2008 - Nothing but Down

Above - The Major Indexes and the VIX-Volatility Index 5 Minute Charts
Above - USD-JPY 4 Hour Chart breaking Support (click to enlarge)Finally - the Election of 2008 is Over! - Now What?
Thankfully John McCain allowed Americans to get an early nights sleep Tuesday by conceding defeat - before California and the West coast was even finished voting.
For me, John McCain and Barack Obama both never resonated beyond mediocre sound bites. IMO – Despite McCain’s pleas for others to help him fight, It looked as if the maverick was relieved to give up. Only in the last few days was Sarah Palin allowed to regain her dignity and throw a few punches for him.
The Big Picture - Click to Enlarge

US President Elect Obama makes his acceptance speech Tuesday night
Calls for the lowering of expectations are coming from the four corners of the left.
Now that the media has put the public in a state of mass psychosis, the public will be in need of a “rattle ya jewelry”, John Lennon type statement from the President elect. Reality sank in fast Wednesday as the financial markets gave BO the cold shoulder as the weight of the world began it’s descent.  
Leadership Needed Now for US All – Starting with You!Support Your Local Trader!
The lack of a “True North” – in Government, Business, Religious, and even in personal relationships is sorely lacking.  Hopefully Obama will open a honest discussion on the real issues and get deep into the details such as Immigration, Jobs, Energy, Personal and Public Responsibility, Realistic Enviornmental programs, Social Security Reform, National Security, Responsible Oversight, Moral Issues, etc.





The new President elect has proven that the United States is truly a land of equal opportunity - he should start by eliminating any program that favors the affirmative action of any group over another - or excludes any person - regardless of age, gender, color, race, or religion.

And let’s remind the new President that confiscation and the demonization of wealth is not the answer. It is speculation that funded the New World - and his campaign. While greed needs to be convicted and eradicated - the healthy free markets of capitalism and trading allows for the liquidity neccessary for entrepreneurs and small businesses to take risks and get funding for the “next big thing” creating jobs and prosperity. Financial and Trading education needs to become an international priority - Starting within the governments and businesses entrusted to oversee the financial markets.  


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Jerry Furst is Sr Technical and Market Analyst and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a an active trader, educator, mentor, and trading coach to Select Clients  
Click Here for your Free Trader Self Evaluation Survey.


Tags: charts, DOW, FX, Interest Rates, John Lennon, Nasadaq, NFP, non farm payroll, Obama, politics, S&P 500, Technical Analysis, trading, unemployment, VIX, Volatility Index


Week Ahead - US Election Finally - Rates and NFP
Posted on November 3, 2008 at 5:43 in Fundamental Analysis, News: Scheduled and Breaking, Relevant Ramblings by Jerry FurstNo Comments »

By Jerry Furst - Sr Analyst
Investors Education Network

The Week Ahead - Calendar and Webinars
For my summarized Scheduled Economic Calendar - Click Here
Monday - US Election Coverage Goes Parabolic!

I’m expecting the markets to be really quiet Monday and Tuesday as the world sits back and pops enough pop corn for the next few days (or maybe weeks). For Americans - It’s time to decide if you are Red or Blue. IMO the 2 party system, with the primary in Iowa and New Hampshire filtering out the majority of candidates is a sham. Am I the only person frustrated with this hypocrisy?

Tuesday - US Election Finally !?

Drum Roll Please - and the winner Tuesday - I mean Wednesday - or Maybe by Friday is? YOU! Yesss! It should finally be over, the election that has taken longer than light from the edge of the universe! Worse than Water Boarding in the Caribbean, do you think that the public will be given a chance to get back to the nauseating reality of real news and what really matters like… Who is Jennifer Aniston dating?  

Wednesday - US Election Finally - Over?
There will also be a heads up on Friday’s NFP as ADP and a few others report on employment data.  Did they finish counting yet?




Thursday - US Election - Over?
“Over? - Was it Over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?” - John Belushi
Interest rates out of the Euro zone and the UK are expected to be lowered. The actions of the ECB and BOE are widely expected and probably no surprise to the charts.
Friday - US Election - 2010 Next!
Yes - it’s not too late to start campaigning for 2010 - Don’t worry about 2012 - the Mayan calendar comes to an end. But then again that should not stop CNN from running Hillary vs Sarah ads next week.  Non Farm Payroll report will be watched carefully and then at the end of the day/week in the US - Consumer Credit comes out at 3pm EDT and that may roil the markets into the close of trading what may prove to be - quite a week ahead.  Stay Tuned….


The Week Ahead - Calendar and Webinars

For my summarized Scheduled Economic Calendar - Click Here
***  Attend A Free Live Market Coverage and Technical Analysis Webinar ***

Click Here to Register for this weeks “1st on Forex” The Week Ahead Webinar  - Every Monday at 12 Noon EDT
Jerry Furst is Sr Technical and Market Analyst and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a an active trader, educator, mentor, and trading coach to Select Clients  
Click Here for your Free Trader Self Evaluation Survey.


Tags: BOE, currencies, dollar, ECB, Election, euro, free, FX, Interest Rates, Jennifer Aniston, NFP, Pound, trading, Water Boarding, webinars


Trick or Treat - Low Rates and Other Good Numbers?
Posted on October 31, 2008 at 5:44 in Fundamental Analysis, News: Scheduled and Breaking, Relevant Ramblings, Technical Analysis by Jerry FurstNo Comments »

By Jerry Furst - Sr Analyst
Investors Education Network

The Dollar - Gives and Takes The past few days have seen the US Dollar give back a small portion of it’s historic rally - save the Yen… This despite factors that fundamentally - “in normal times” - should have hammered the greenback. The biggest factor being the FOMC dropping rates to 1%, and GDP coming in an anemic 0.3%.
Jumbo Jets and Jobs Anyone? Durable Goods in September were reported to be a positive 0.8% with expectations running as low as -3%. This was primarily attributed to aircraft orders. With the Delta and Northwest merger approved by shareholders - there may be a few “pre-owned” birds along with some stewardesses on the market. Jobless claims came in at a steady - unchanged 479,000 on Thursday - only to hear that American Express and Motorola were going to lay off a pfat part of their payroll.
Costa Rican Telemarketing @ the Beach? Joke of the Day: What do you get when you put some laid off Airline workers, cellphone makers, and wall street types together at the unemployment line talking about pensions and vacations? Send me your punch line. (I’m thinking Quentin Tarantino for some reason)

Technically Speaking - More Patterns I See The Canadian Dollar Setting Up Again? (Click to Enlarge Chart)
USD-CAD Symmetrical Triangle
appears to be setting up on the 60 minute chart as of 1:30am October 31. Fibonacci levels coincide with the potential price pattern targets at 1.2540 for the upside and 1.700 for the downside support level.

Look back at my previous posts from October 21 - 26 for a text book example of a triangle pattern completing quite nicely.
Live Webinar Monday - The Week Ahead - Free Registration
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Posted on October 26, 2008 at 3:43 in Fundamental Analysis, News: Scheduled and Breaking, Technical Analysis by Jerry FurstNo Comments »



By Jerry Furst - Sr Analyst
Investors Education Network

Last Weeks Chart Analysis Results
[url=http://blogs.fxstreet.com/1stonforex/2008/10/26/last-week-and-the-week-ahead/2008-october-21-cad-triangle-pattern1/] USD-CAd - Triangle Setup 700 Pips - Triangle Pattern Quickly Completes
[/url]
700 Pip Targets Hit in 48 Hours - Dollar Continues Amazing Rally - Technicals Look Great
Greenspans Admits to Flawed Reality of Greeds Span
The Senate oversight committee with testimony from former chairman Greenspan, Treasury Secretary Snow, and SEC Commissioner Cox was barely covered by the networks. It amazes me that the pundits and judge Judy can talk over and over rule what could have been the most important testimony broadcast to date as to what happened and why there was so little oversight.   Given the fact that Tax payer dollars are being used - you would think the tax payers should be given the opportunity to listen to the testimony - un interrupted if they wanted to.  But no reason to bore the people with the facts from the sources directly - better we get some 4th party opinion to talk over the testimony in between commercials.
The Week Ahead - Calendar and Webinars
Summarized Scheduled Economic Calendar - Click Here
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FOMC and US GDP Report Live Webinars Ths week - Click Here to Register
Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

Tags: charting, commisioner, Cox, economic calendar, FOMC, free, FX, GDP, Greenspan, SEC, Snow, Technical Analysis, trading, treasury secretary, triangle pattern, webinar


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hefeiddd

Posted on October 21, 2008 at 8:25 in Fundamental Analysis, Relevant Ramblings, Technical Analysis by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
If You Can’t Say Anything Good - Keep Your Mouth Shut!

Last week I was invited to the Federal Reserve in Miami for Dinner and a Seminar, The Filet was excellent! The subject matter made me uneasy as I came to realize that there is a bit of a disconnect between the realities on the ground and the knee jerk reactions taking place in Washington.
I would like to report that the end is near for our economic troubles - however I think I will just let the Fed and the Treasury do what it does - they have some good ideas and they do seem to be taking action - although it all seems to be symptom based and observational in nature -  versus leadership based, and proactive. I was vocal about the need to address the root of the problems - Like getting people into real mfg jobs creating and installing solar panels and hydrogen-electric-propane vehicles… getting us off the oil and utility companies nipple, etc….
Retroacttive Tax Deductions - Stimulus Plan II
One suggestion I made at the Fed meeting was an idea to return the tax deduction for using credit - retroactively - for all those people teased into spending to keep the worlds economy humming? I heard Ben Bernanke today mention that he was in favor  of a second stimulus package.
Another Idea: Recall All Dollars - Before They Start The Printing!
Another Idea I blurted out (befoe they took the microphone away from me) was to recall all US paper currency and replace them with new certificates - this would have an immediate effect of temporarily flushing/wiping out the underground - unreported economy. Might as well create some new certificates as long as they are going to have to start printing a whole lot of them soon!
Technical Analysis - Dollar - Canadian Poised for a Triangle Break?


The US Dollar - Canadian - 4 Hour Chart shows a nice example of a Triangle pattern with a very strong supportive trend line and a well defined resistance line on top. The Fibonacci Retracements and Extensions are lining up with the Triangle Pattern’s potential projected price targets.
Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

Tags: Bernanke, Canadian, charting, federal reserve, fibonacci, FX, patterns, ressistance, support, Technical Analysis, trading, Treasury, triangle, US Dollar

From Mickey Mouse to the Federal Reserve


Posted on September 21, 2008 at 7:01 in Fundamental Analysis, News: Scheduled and Breaking, Technical Analysis by Jerry Furst2 Comments »

Looking for a Bottom? -  Catching A Falling ——
Last week is indicative of the type of headlines and panics worthy of a possible bottom. I’m usually looking for the scapegoat being handcuffed and paraded infront of  televsion cameras - last time I think it was Martha Stewart and some cable television guy …
However - this trader understands that most market bottoms usually come in with a thud, and I am just not convinced that we have heard it yet - although a 40 foot crater at the Pakistan Marriott is a telling sign - nothing for us to worry about…
Photo ops of the entire US Government represented by The Treasury, The Federal Reserve, The Speaker of the House, and the Senate - at the Presidents Invitation to…. spend 700 Billion to prop up a “house of cards”  that the president just recently learned was a bit bigger than his.
Are We There Yet?  A Look at The Vix and S&P 500

Click Here for Videos
Currency Markets Acting Well Technically - Hypoyhetically - Not Speaking
Currency Traders with their heads in the sand and only watching the charts may be doing quite nicely, as the trend and momentum trading is nothing less than excellent…. There are other issues that are currently hypothetical that I will not delve in to, but the possibility of extremely unexpected surprises are possible that might affect the currency markets and the way many of us trade…



Tags: AIG, Art Cashin, BAC, Bank of America, depression, dollar, euro, Fear, gold, resolution trust


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hefeiddd

BuzzNet Tags: Forex,FX,currency trading,trading,technical analysis,charts,consumer sentiment,personal income,consumer confidence,support,resistance
US GDP Report - But Wait… There’s More!
Posted on August 28, 2008 at 0:14 in Fundamental Analysis, News: Scheduled and Breaking, Technical Analysis by Jerry FurstNo Comments »

Jobless Claims and Corporate Profit Reports
There will be a small storm of scheduled news released Thursday at 8:30 Eastern time  - this may throw some volatility onto the charts. Jobless claims and Corporate profit reports is on the US calendar and Canada Releases Import-Export Trade Data too!
Your Are Invited - Register for Live Coverage of the GDP Report - Webinar
US GDP Report Live Webinar this Thursday begins at 7:30am Eastern Time - Click Here to Register
Pound Going Down?  See Video Below

1st on Forex - FX Market Update Video - Wednesday August 28, 2008



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BuzzNet Tags: Forex,currency trading,trading,economic calendar,fundamental analysis,GDP,webinar,education,training,mentor,coach

Poor PPI and Dismal Housing Start Data Provides Dollar Retracement
Posted on August 20, 2008 at 6:01 in Fundamental Analysis, News: Scheduled and Breaking, Technical Analysis by Jerry FurstNo Comments »

US inflation data is being quoted as the worst since 1981. The US Housing market continues to show severe contraction. This may actually be a good sign that we are approaching the “bottom of the cycle. It is refreshing when government officials have stepped away from their “rose colored windows” and have begun stating the “true” inflation numbers - even if it means they will need to pay higher Cost of Living Allowances, otherwise known as “COLAS” .
Yesterday’s Blog Post - Today’s News
Yesterday - I posted a few charts and did a video detailing some signs that we were due for a retracement - and that’s what we got the start of yesterday - click on the charts and video from today and yesterday.

Triangle Pattern Completes (above) and then Dollar Retraces  -  See Yesterday’s Post

Euro Bounces off of Horizontal and Trendline Support (Click on Charts to Enlarge)



Posted on August 19, 2008 at 6:04 in Fundamental Analysis, News: Scheduled and Breaking, Technical Analysis by Jerry FurstNo Comments »

What Goes Down Must Go ….. ?
The Greenback has made a dramatic run, but without much of a retracement. The Daily charts show the picture quite clearly. If the past is a guide, you can see the dramatic run up in the Euro in February and March and then the pullback - if for no other reason than to respect the laws of gravity!


Triangle in Play? Time for the Retracement?

Euro at Support on Weekly Chart

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BOE Inflation Report Kicks Pound to the Curb
Posted on August 13, 2008 at 13:27 in Fundamental Analysis, News: Scheduled and Breaking, Technical Analysis by Jerry Furst1 Comment »

250 Pip Drop against Dollar
The Pound Sterling nose dived from 1.900 to 1.7500 in minutes as the BOE released a report that indicates lower interest rates may be coming soon. Currently the BOE is holding rates at 5% and has plenty of room to cut - just to gain parity to the ECB’s rate.

GBP - USD 1 Minutes Chart 250 Pip Drop (click to enlarge) Dramatic example of Scheduled News Events effects on currencies.
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Dollar Stalls vs Euro - Falls vs Yen
Posted on August 13, 2008 at 6:14 in Fundamental Analysis, News: Scheduled and Breaking, Technical Analysis by Jerry FurstNo Comments »

The US Dollar Rally took a rest on Tuesday even as good news for the Greenback came in the way of a better than expected Trade Balance report.

Euro vs US Dollar - 30 Minute Chart above (click to enlarge) shows the 650 pip drop in the last four trading days, and the current consolidation.
Yen Rallies vs Dollar even with Weak GDP
Meanwhile, The US Dollar Fell in the Asian Session as Japan reported a 0.6% drop in GDP. This number was inline with expectations. But it is surprising to see the Greenback drop about 100 pips on the news.

US Dollar vs Yen Daily Chart Above and 30 Minute Chart Below Shows…
shows the Yen is at a support level of convergence with horizontal trend line support, and rising trend channel support. It is interesting to look at the two charts of different time frames as the 30 minute chart highlights and brings into focus the support level.

*** Your Invitation For Free Live Market Coverage and Analysis Webinars *** Click Here to Register for this weeks “1st on Forex” The Week Ahead Webinar  - Every Monday at 12 Noon EDT - Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.  43 Things Tags: Forex,currencies,trading,technical analysis,charts,Euro,Yen,Dollar,GDP,trend,support,webinar,free

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No News Is Good News For Euro
Posted on August 12, 2008 at 6:22 in Fundamental Analysis, News: Scheduled and Breaking, Technical Analysis by Jerry FurstNo Comments »

As US Data is Scheduled
The Euro continued to give up ground on Monday against the US Dollar as did the Sterling, Swiss, and Aussie. The Yen, and Canadian Stayed stable.
Tuesday brings no scheduled news for the Euro zone worthy of mention, but the US calendar brings in International Trade reports in the morning and the US Treasury Budget later in the afternoon. This may give the currencies some time to retrace - time will tell.
Euro Inside Old Support Range

August 12, 2008 - daily Chart  (Click to Enlarge)
The Euro has now fallen Through Support and is in familiar territory.
From Nov 2007 through March 2008 the Euro trended Sideways from 1.4300 - 1.500
Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.





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hefeiddd

Posted on August 8, 2008 at 5:49 in Fundamental Analysis, News: Scheduled and Breaking, Technical Analysis by Jerry Furst2 Comments »
No Surprise on Interest Rates - So What’s the Panic About?
Trichet has suddenly seen the light of the economic train bearing down on him with the horn blaring a siren of economic weakness. Does he now feel that  Bernanke and the FOMC across the pond have taken the proper path? Well things are not so clear cut, and that’s what makes the financial markets such an interesting game.
Oil Heads Lower - $30 per Barrel - Believe Me Later
As the US Dollar continues to Strengthen - Oil is breaking one support level after another and seems to be heading for the $100 range. In my opinion anything above $30 is too damn high… but that’s me…. I’m going to go out on a long limb here and say that once Oil falls off the radar screen and the lips of the financial pundits that $30 per barrel may be the new support level. It might take a year or more - but I will revisit this in the future(s).
Is Euro Over Sold? 800 Pip Drop To Continue?
After the FOMC announcement on August 5, I stated that if the Euro breaks below 1.5350 the US Dollar might be reclaiming it’s footing and getting traction - I posted the Weekly chart of the Euro approaching support - The Euro is now testing 1.5200 - It’s a new day!

Euro Breaks Support - Weekly Chart Tells the Story (click to Enlarge)  
On July 15, 2008 the Euro traded at a all time high of approx 1.6030 - The current price today August 7, 2008 is approx 1.5230. My indicators on all time frames above 30 minutes show that the momentum to the downside has not completed yet. This 800 pip drop seems to continue
Dollar - Yen Poised in Consolidation

The Dollar has posted an impressive gain against the Yen running from 104 to almost 110 since July 15.
The 60 Minute Chart Above Shows a Nice Consolidation As the Dollar is Approaching Resistance on the Yen.
*** Your Invitation For Free Live Market Coverage and Analysis Webinars *** Click Here to Register for my “1st on Forex” The Week Ahead Webinar  - Every Monday at 12 Noon EDT - Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.
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FOMC Holds Rates Steady - Dollar Holds
Posted on August 5, 2008 at 23:35 in Fundamental Analysis, News: Scheduled and Breaking, Relevant Ramblings, Technical Analysis by Jerry FurstNo Comments »

Possible Turning Point Getting More Confirmation
The consensus in the Live FOMC Webinar was that Ben Bernanke would keep rates steady. This was in line with the pundits consensus. The Fed Funds Futures Rates Shot up indicating that there are expectations that rates will be on hold for the time being. I posted on the blog a while back that there is the possibility that the FED may not raise rates until after the election in November. So much for a “independent” Federal reserve an just doing what is right.
High and Low Water Mark Spike

Often a FOMC, GDP,  or NFP release will “spike the charts and create what I call “High and Low” water marks. The 1 minute chart above showsthe high point at 1.5495 and the Low Mark at 1.5443- As of this typing the Euro was trading inside the range at 1.5457

Euro Still at Support

The Weekly Chart Above Shows the Euro Heading down after making a “Double Top” on July 15th. The 32 SMA is prepared and ready to hold support at approximately 1.5390 a Break below 1.5350 could signal the US Dollar is reclaiming it’s way back up.
Rate Increase is Needed Badly
The simpleton side of the debate screams that “you must be crazy to raise rates” with an economy like this. However,the person on the street has no access to the 2% rates that are reserved for the banks. No….. The dirty little secret is that Credit Card companies are charging 17% to regular clients - and heaven help you if you miss a payment - The rates can jump to 30% plus!
Mortgage Rates have nothing to do with Fed Rates - What would happen if…
The standard fixed rate mortgage today is approximately 7% - What would happen If…. the Fed raised a quarter point to 2.25%?  You would see the US Dollar rally - and the Black Crowes sitting on the fence that are waiting to buy houses - would fly off the fence and start to clear some of the inventory off the market in fear that rates would continue to go higher. So the Fed rate really has nothing to do with the trickle down effect that is needed to get things moving. Again - a rate increase will bring down the price of oil and help us all.
Australian Dollar Ready To Fall?

The Weekly Chart above shows the AUD-USD with the 50 SMA clearly holding support is ready to crack as rumors of the RBA needing to cut rates in the near future are getting louder.

hefeiddd

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Dollar Holds Steady Despite Dows Drop
Posted on July 25, 2008 at 4:24 in News: Scheduled and Breaking, Technical Analysis by Jerry Furst1 Comment »

Weak Economic Data - No Surprise
US Exiting Home Sales and Jobless Claims pushed the equity markets over a cliff on Thursday with the DOW Industrials closing down almost 300 points. But the Greenback held steady.
Friday Has More News Ahead
Durable Goods, Consumer Sentiment and New Home Sales will be news to watch coming out Friday morning.
Above and Below the US

The Daily Chart above shows Australian vs US Dollar shows a nice up trending channel with price at support.

Australia - Above and Below the US at Support

Australia Coming Up Strong vs Canadian Dollar - For How Long?

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Dollar Continues Gains - Euro Drops vs Pound
Posted on July 23, 2008 at 18:10 in News: Scheduled and Breaking, Technical Analysis by Jerry FurstNo Comments »

As the US Dollar continues to gain ground, The Pound has seen some strength as well after the Bank of England released their meeting minutes earlier in the European session.

Triangle In Play - Daily Chart of Euro vs Pound (click to enlarge)

Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

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Dollar Soars on FOMC Statement Suggesting Rate Hike
Posted on July 22, 2008 at 21:06 in Fundamental Analysis, News: Scheduled and Breaking, Technical Analysis by Jerry Furst2 Comments »

Oil Drops Despite Storm in the Gulf - Coincidence?
The Dollar made a huge rally against all the majors. Today’s drop in Oil, despite a storm in the Gulf is proof to me that a strong US Dollar will bring down oil, gasoline, and hence inflation comes down.
Current Policy “Too Accommodative”
Voting member of the FOMC - Philly Fed President Plosser stated that, “I anticipate the reversal will need to be started sooner rather than later” when he was discussing the fact that current policy was “too accommodative”. The fact that the low rates between the banks are no where to be seen by consumers should be an issue.
The Currencies
As of midday Tuesday

The Euro tanked over 180 pips dropping form 1.5940 to 1.5760.

The Pound gave up over 150 pips sinking from 2.0075 to 1.9900.
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Dollar Giving Up Ground
Posted on July 22, 2008 at 3:38 in Technical Analysis by Jerry FurstNo Comments »

It was a quiet Monday - but the Dollar continued to drift lower against the Majors

The Euro is in a Trend Channel - Wants to go Higher?

Nice Sideways Symmetry - The CAD - USD  has retested and broken parity again today
Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.


Week Ahead for July 21 - 25 Calendar


Posted on July 19, 2008 at 0:33 in Fundamental Analysis, News: Scheduled and Breaking, Technical Analysis by Jerry Furst1 Comment »

Forget about Iran - Dollar Gains Ground
A seismic fundamental shift in the Energy Crisis may take place - but  the US Congress must act quickly to lift barriers to domestic oil drilling. The charts below show that at 11 am July 14, 2008 the US Dollar spiked and has either continued to gain ground or flat lined ever since US President George Bush announced that he would lift the Executive Prohibition on drilling Monday.  
Timely Action Taken and Needed Now
A close look at the charts below show that the US dollar was heading for lower lows, and threatening to fall off some technical cliffs - until the President made his announcement, but this may be short lived if the Congressional Prohibition is not lifted.  

Euro posts historic high over 1.63 - then drops on the news - flat lines for the rest of the week.

Pound Shows Similar Flat Line Pattern as Dollar Consolidates (click on chart to enlarge)

US Dollar Rallies against the Yen after Bush Oil Drilling Policy Change Sinks In
Hey Greenpeace - Take Al Gore to China!
Although environmental critics may not like the idea of drilling off the Florida coast - the reality is that China has already got the rights from Cuba to drill in the same fields off the US coast.  Whether this was a carefully contrived plan or not - we need to act now to start drilling, and at the same time start General Motors and Ford cranking out Electric Cars on a Manhattan Project schedule and get the world off of Fossil Fuels - ASAP! Geez - now I sound like Al Gore….
*** Your Invitation For Free Live Market Coverage and Analysis Webinars *** Click Here to Register for my “1st on Forex” The Week Ahead Webinar  - Every Monday at 12 Noon EDT - Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.


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hefeiddd

Posted on July 17, 2008 at 5:45 in Fundamental Analysis, News: Scheduled and Breaking, Technical Analysis by Jerry Furst1 Comment »
Somebody Showed Him The Memo - Leadership at Last?
On Monday July 14, US President George Bush announced that he would lift the Executive Prohibition banning offshore oil drilling as soon as Congress agrees. Crude Oil has been in a tailspin ever since! Two days after Bush pulled out this  tourniquet for the United States hemorrhaging economy, Finally - something real is being “talked” about that might reverse the madness driving oil to perverse price levels. But the US Congress needs to act fast, before the summer break.
Presidential Magic Wand Causes Stumbling and Tumbling Oil Prices
As the price of oil dropped, the dollar rallied! Is this because the United States is ready to open up it’s vast reserves of untapped oil. If done properly - by the time all of this oil comes online - we should have new technology to replace these fossil fuels. But that will take real leadership and accommodation by the government to help the private sector bring to market new forms of energy replace the old.
A scan below the headlines shows reporters stumbling around to figure out why the sudden drop. The list of culprits is long:

• A surprise in supplies,
• Computer based trading,
• Liquidation of positions to cover shorts,
• Options Expiration.

Enough is Enough - Let’s Get Drilling!
No mention of the President wielding the “Magic Wand” he supposedly did not know he had. The fact that the futures market is all about future prices, and by bringing the United States vast untapped oil fields online - the future markets are signaling that enough is enough!
Surprise Surprise Surprise - Look at the Dollar

The Euro had just made a stab 1.6040 and then plummeted almost 250 pips,

The Pound lost about 200 pips after making a peak at 2.0150! Triangle in Play is almost complete.
Chart Update Update

Inverse Head and Shoulder - Now Formed and In Place - See July 15 Post
Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), He is a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients  Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

Dollar Sinking as Rate Increase Odds Diminish
Posted on July 15, 2008 at 5:23 in Fundamental Analysis, News: Scheduled and Breaking, Technical Analysis by Jerry FurstNo Comments »

0% Chance of Rate Increase in August???
According to Market News International, the odds of a rate increase in August has dropped from 35% June 25th, to a 0% chance today. September you ask…. on June 25th the odds were 65% odds of a .25% rate increase, today only a 12% chance. This is based on the Fed Funds Futures Rates as of 11:30 July 14, 2008.
Talking About Odds….
The Fed Funds Futures rates are often referenced to predict.. The Interest Rate from the Fed in the Future. Well, that kind of sounds like it should make sense, except that Ben Bernanke has told congress in the past that he watches the Fed Funds Futures rate as a way to gauge what to do….. Hmmmm…. sounds like a mythical snake that swallows it’s tail or something….. The thing to remember is that as quick as those odds have gone down - they can turn right back around! You are invited to watch me broadcast a live Webinar when the FOMC releases their Rate Announcement on Tuesday August 5th - info below.
Speaking of Round Abouts….
The UK posted Price Inflation at Double Digits earlier in the day and the Pound took a quick drop against the Greenback.

1 Minute Chart - Pound - Dollar -  News Causes Temporary 80 Pip Drop

Short Lived Loss Gets the Head & Shoulder? Yes - No - Maybe ??

4 Hour Chart Shows Inverse Head and Shoulder Pattern Forming?

hefeiddd

FOMC and others in Denial Bernanke stated that he believes headline inflation will come down even if oil remains at current levels - as soon as the current data in the “pipeline” comes out in upcoming reports. Such revelations come on the same day that former US Senator Phil Gramm stated that Americans are  “whiners” and in a “Mental Recession”. Gramm was presidential hopeful John McCains economic advisor - until today’s gaff. BOE - Hold Rates Steady No Change in Policy - No Statement - No Change in Pound 30 Minute Pound Chart July 10 - 22:30 EDT - Going Sideways Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN),He is available as a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.
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Dollar Gives Up Gains as Bear Growls
Posted on July 10, 2008 at 2:51 in News: Scheduled and Breaking, Technical Analysis by Jerry FurstNo Comments »

US Equities and Futures Markets were under pressure Wednesday as continued concerns in the financial and housing market put pressure on the Greenback. The Canadian Dollar has been gaining again against the Dollar and the Euro.

Triangle Pattern In Play - USD-CAD 60 Min Chart
UK Interest Rates - What’s Next?
The Pound Sterling has regained some lost ground over  the past few days. Recovering about 200 pips from the 1.9650 range and settling back into the 1.9800 range as of this post.
The Bank of England is expected to keep rates steady at 5.0% tomorrow. Although a cut in rates would be expected to help a slowing economy, the banks are not passing these lower rates on to consumers. The same seems to be happening in the United States.

30 Minute Pound Chart 20:30 EDT
Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN),He is available as a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.
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T.Boone Pickens Alternative Energy Plans - Bernanke and Paulson Speak
Posted on July 8, 2008 at 22:00 in News: Scheduled and Breaking, Technical Analysis by Jerry Furst2 Comments »

Pickens Plan - Away from Fossil Fuels
Famed oil man T. Boone Pickens has taken action towards the future of energy - away from oil.  Finally someone has decided to take a leadership role in the growing energy crisis. Getting the world and the United States off of fossil fuels is the challenge of our time. Pickens has debuted a web site called www.PickesPlan.com - dedicated to Alternative Energy initiatives. Specifically Natural Gas and Wind Power. Interviewed on CNBC this morning Mr. Pickens is open and willing to meeting with both presidential candidates to discuss his alternative energy ideas.
I personally want to see Solar Energy highlighted more as a way to get consumers away from the utility companies - but this is a long overdue start at addressing the issue of getting away from fossil fuel technology that is over 100 years old.
I encourage you to view and share Mr. Pickens site with everyone you know to get the word out that there are alternatives to fossil fuels. Pickens shows that one person can make a difference  - and that person is you! Again go to:  www.PickensPlan.com
Meanwhile - Bernanke and Paulson Speak
Pending home sales for the US came in surprisingly worse than expected falling 4.7%. This as Ben Bernanke and Hank Paulson both addressed the FDIC mortgage conference in Washington today.  Both officials spoke about concern of continued fallout from the housing and credit crisis. Maintaining financial infrastructure while allowing “pain”  to take it’s path. Bernanke seemed to be asking Congress for broader powers.
Euro Continues Consolidation
The US Dollar has shown some strength against the Euro and the Pound. The Canadian dollar was mixed for the New York  Session.

Fibonacci Extensions show one set of Support and Resistance ranges for the Euro - July 8, 2008.

Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN),He is available as a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.
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hefeiddd

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ECB - NFP - Trichet - No Surprise - Dollar Rallies
Posted on July 3, 2008 at 16:15 in Fundamental Analysis, News: Scheduled and Breaking, Technical Analysis by Jerry FurstNo Comments »

Expected News is Good News for Greenback
The US Dollar rallied even though US employment data shows continued weakness. The data could have been worse. Meanwhile, the ECB had no major surprise with it’s rate hike, and the accompanying statement had a “neutral” bias. There was a quick spike, and “Sell the News” seems to have been applied - at least temporarily.
Trichet Has No Bias - Maintains Credibility
Unlike his US counterparts - Jean Claude Trichet maintained his credibility by doing what he had said he would do. Having followed through with this rate increase, it appears as if a cruising altitude may be in place. During his press conference Trichet stated that, ” Starting from here I have no bias.” indeed the ECB did not make any mention of future intentions.
Bank of England is Up Next Week
Normally the BOE Interest Rate would have been announced today - However, the UK shifted the announcement date to next Thursday July 10th, to allow for it’s former colonies Independence Day celebration.
Pound Holding at Support

4 Hour Chart - Nice Trend Channel Holding Support (click to enlarge)

30 Minute Chart shows an Inverse Head & Shoulders pattern that has failed, as the Non Farm payroll, and ECB statement was released at 8:30am EDT. This resulted in a 100 pip drop,  quickly completing the failure of the pattern - that results in a “Double Bottom”.
Register for Free - Live Market Analysis Webinars “1st on Forex” The Week Ahead Every Monday at 12 Noon EDT - Click Here Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN),He is available as a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.
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Trichet Speaks after NFP Thursday
Posted on July 3, 2008 at 5:24 in Fundamental Analysis, News: Scheduled and Breaking, Technical Analysis by Jerry FurstNo Comments »

The News After The News - Q and A to Follow
Trichet is in the spotlight - Not for the ECB Interest Rate decision at 7:45. The .25% rate hike is baked into the charts. The real news is that his prepared text is scheduled to be released at the same time as the Non Farm Payroll report. Trichet then enjoys his moment with his Question and Answer session where he will be scrutinized for any hint of future moves.
Clarity vs. Mumbo from Jumbo
President Bush in the Rose Garden and Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson in London spoke back to back today mumbling something about a strong US Dollar….. Meanwhile Oil hit a new high of $145 during the Asia session and Gold is soaring towards the mid $900 range.
Euro Set For Re-Test of 1.60?

Daily Chart Shows Fractal of Double Bottom Pattern. Is the Euro ready to break out to a new range? (Click on Chart to Enlarge)

8:30 am EDT is Decision Time

30 Minute Chart Shows Nice Trend Channel with Center Support Line.

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“1st on Forex” The Week Ahead Every Monday at 12 Noon EDT - Click Here Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN),He is available as a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.
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Week Ahead for June 30 - July 4 Calendar

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hefeiddd

Posted on June 27, 2008 at 6:39 in Fundamental Analysis, News: Scheduled and Breaking, Relevant Ramblings, Technical Analysis by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
The Daily Chart of the US Dollar - Swiss Franc

The Dollar is Losing Ground Again - The Chart Above (click to enlarge) shows a nice Consolidation Range that goes back to Early May when the pair was trading at approximately 1.0600. That level has been Resistance as the 1.0200 level has held Support. The chart above shows the 25% and 50% retracements are holding the upper and lower extremes of this range. The 38.2% Retracement is symmetrically splitting the range in half. At the current time of this post - the Dollar is testing the support level.

CBOE- VIX - Volatility Index - June 26, 2008 Close

The VIX  - Threatening a Spike ???
A surprise rate increase by the Fed would have been a boost of confidence for the dollar and Bernanke. A day after the FOMC meeting,  Oil and Gold Spiked as the Dow Dropped 358 and the Nasdaq went down 80. The Volatility Index - otherwise known as the “fear indicator” is looking to break above the current 38.2 Fibonacci resistance level of 24.
Friday’s News
Over night the UK is reporting GDP at 4:30 EDT and the Euro Zone will report on Consumer Confidence at 5:00. The US will report on Personal Income and Spending at 8:30am and at 10am Consumer Sentiment should set the stage for Trichet to talk at 12;30 EDT to either slaughter the dollar with continued threats of a rate hike - or - If he wants stable currencies - he might state that the status quo is good enough for now.
But then again - Be prepared - as anything might spook the markets at this time….
Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN),He is available as a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.
Technorati Tags: Swiss Franc,US Dollar,Euro,Pound,FX,Currency,chart,Fibonacci extensions.,Support,resistance is futile,consolidation range,Trichet,Bernanke,interest rates,retracements,DOW,Gold,oil,consumer confidence,personal spending,GDP

FOMC Leaves Rates Unchanged = No Confidence: Indeed
Posted on June 25, 2008 at 23:46 in Fundamental Analysis, News: Scheduled and Breaking, Relevant Ramblings, Technical Analysis by Jerry Furst2 Comments »

Currencies barely phased by inaction


What Happened to the Strong US Dollar Policy?
So the Fed did what was predicted - left rates steady and no real hint of propping up the US Dollar. This raises the main issue. Will the Fed and the others back up what they mean when they say they support policy of a strong US currency. The sooner they realize that:
It’s All About the Money
Oil is transacted in US Dollars, and the cheaper US Dollars become the more expensive Oil becomes. I fail to see how there is any debate about this.
Next Up - US GDP Report
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Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN),He is available as a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.


Posted on June 18, 2008 at 15:51 in Fundamental Analysis, News: Scheduled and Breaking, Relevant Ramblings, Technical Analysis by Jerry FurstNo Comments »



Currency Without a Nation
Fundamentally - Political uncertainty can undermine a nations currency. The Euro is in a unique and interesting situation that may cause some currency volatility as the European Union itself is being reopened to debate.
Will the Euro stay in the current consolidation range of 1.53 -1.60, or fall back into the 1.43-1.50 range?
Euro Daily Chart - June 18, 2008

Lower Highs as Support is Getting Closer - (Click to Enlarge Chart)
Interest Rates vs European Unity - Which is Stronger?
With Trichet’s reputation as being quite clear that their will be a .25 rate increase in the next 30 days - the question will focus on whether all the jawboning coming from the US will result in a FOMC increase later this month. If there is no rate increase from Bernanke - there may be a credibility and transparency crisis over just what the definition of a “Strong US Dollar Policy” means.
EU: Concept is in Question - Focus on Brussels
So which factor or variable  will trump the current currency situation? The European Union has been moving along for several decades as if it will just happen. Last weeks vote in Ireland on the Lisbon Treaty puts the “concept in question”. On Thursday European Union leaders will gather to tackle the issue of what to do with a treaty that has been defeated every time it has been put up for referendum.
Don’t Blame it on the Irish
The French and Dutch themselves have said “No” to this idea of giving up national sovereignty long before last weeks vote in Ireland. The fact is that the creation of a European Nation, patterned after the United States formation in 1776, is going to be a hard sell for countries with proud histories going back many generations.

Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN),He is available as a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.
Technorati Tags: Euro,currencies,EU,Lisbon Treaty,Brussels,dollar,daily chart,support,resistance,interest rates,Trichet,Bernanke,FOMC

hefeiddd

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European Union Gets a "NO" Vote — G-8 to Raise Rates?
Posted on June 13, 2008 at 19:37 in Fundamental Analysis, News: Scheduled and Breaking, Technical Analysis by Jerry FurstNo Comments »

Does No Mean No Problem?
Ok, so Ireland voted “No” to the Lisbon Treaty - So for now the EU Constitution is in question and will need to re-drafted. At first glance this would seem to be destabilizing for the Euro. However, this may actually  be “Euro Positive” as it will keep the status quo for now. This “No Vote” leaves Trichet and the European Central Bank with no official Parliament to answer to.  There is less oversight, and less political interference form member states. In fact Trichet is arguably the most recognized and powerful figure in the European Union - and he probably likes it that way!
                                  The Trichet Smile!

The Euro consolidated in a tight range - (Click to Enlarge Chart)

G-8: What if They All Raise Rates?
The Finance Ministers of the G8 meet in Japan this weekend and it will be interesting to see what the communiqué says. Recent grumblings about wanting to raise rates have been heard coming from the Bank of Canada and Japan. Will the US start doing something more than whistling.and start singing in tune with the ECB and the BOE?
All Together Now!
Perhaps there may be a consensus amongst all central banks to raise rates. This would effectively leave the differential unchanged - and maybe help make everyone happy.
Dollar Ready for a Rally?
The next FOMC announcement is scheduled for June 25th. Up until now talk has been cheap - Now It’s Show Time! Paulson, Bernanke, and Bush in recent days (and years) have been talking about their strong US Dollar policy. Signs of action and maybe even “intervention” to shore up the US Dollar will need to be seen soon - or the US will lose even more credibility.
Dennis Gartman “Smells” Something in the Air
The Gartman Letter on Thursday was quoted as saying, “We fear that Washington is preparing some material action that will shake the dollar bears from the positions with a “Old Testament-like” vengeance. Call it traders intuition or call it what you will but we “smell” something.”
Dennis has seen quite a few cycles - amongst other things - Perhaps it’s Iran that’s stinking up the place.
Live Market Coverage and Analysis Webinars
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Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN),He is available as a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.
Technorati Tags: European Union,vote,Ireland,Non farm payroll,currency,Euro,Dollar,G8,Japan,Interest Rates,webinar,rally Dennis Gartman


European Union Failing??
Posted on June 12, 2008 at 18:06 in Fundamental Analysis, News: Scheduled and Breaking, Technical Analysis by Jerry FurstNo Comments »

Euro Poised at Support - Will It Hold?

Click to Enlarge Chart

No “Plan C” for the EU
So it all comes down to Ireland today as there is no “Plan C” to the Lisbon Treaty. But if the 27 nation bloc fails - it will not be because of one tiny Ireland. The Dutch and French said no to the previous treaty back in 2005. So this vote today is in fact “Plan B”.
10 Years After
The Financial Times today had an interesting editorial by Vaclav Klaus throwing water and shining a light on the “pressures” being faced10 years the creation of the European Central Bank. Initially the Euro zone was created as a “political project” that quickly turned into a economic project of the “common currency”. Now “the European Commission declares that the most important step towards improving the Eurozone’s prosperity is closer political union.”
Imagine…. There’s No Countries….
Klaus writes, The 1st 10 years of the EU saw no serious crisis - but that If Europe does not wake up - it could soon face hard times. “the European Commission has declared the most important steps towards improving the eurozone’s prosperity is closer political union.” and that, ” Member countries should give up their representations in international institutions and their right to express their own views.”  

Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN),He is available as a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

Technorati Tags: Euro,currency,trading,charts,Lisbon Treaty,Ireland,vote


Week Ahead - June 9 - 13
Posted on June 10, 2008 at 3:30 in Uncategorized by Jerry FurstNo Comments »

This Weeks Calendar Below is a Consolidated Summary of Scheduled News Events that I am watching. for the “Week Ahead”  Note: All times are listed in US Eastern Time Zone and there are other scheduled events that I may not have listed. Jerry’s US News Watch for -June 9-13  

Mon Jun-9	10:00	Pending Home Sales
Tue Jun 10	8:30 8:55 9:00	International Trade Red Book Canadian Interest Rate Announcement
Wed Jun 11	10:00 10:30 14:00	Services Survey Petroleum Status Treasury Budget and Beige Book
Thu Jun 12	8:30 8:30 10:00 10:30	Import - Export Prices Retail Sales Business Inventories Natural Gas Report
Fri Jun 13	8:30 10:00	CPI - Consumer Price Index Consumer Sentiment

Jerry’s International News Watch for - June 2- 6

Mon Jun-9	21:30	AUD	Home Loans
Tue Jun 10	4:30 8:30 9:00 19:50	GBP CAD CAD JPY	Industrial Production & Housing Price Index Trade Balance Interest Rate GDP - Current Acct - GPI
Wed Jun 11	4:30 8:30 21:30	GBP CAD AUD	Unemployment - Trade Bal - Avg Earnings New Housing Prices - Industrial  Capacity Employment Numbers
Thu Jun 12	All Day 6:45	EUR NZD	Ireland Votes on EU Ratification Retail Sales
Fri Jun 13	All Day	G-8	2 day Meeting in Japan Begins

Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN),He is available as a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.
Technorati Tags: Week Ahead,calendar,scheduled,economic events,G-8


Trichet Jawbones Euro Back Up - Carry Traders Happy? New Video Analysis
Posted on June 6, 2008 at 3:00 in Fundamental Analysis, News: Scheduled and Breaking, Technical Analysis by Jerry Furst1 Comment »

Battle of the Jawbones!

The chart above shows the Euro regained some lost ground from Bernanke’s Jawboning Tuesday. Wednesday saw the Euro settle into a tight trading range. Trichet’s comments left most people to believe that a rate hike is in the cards before the end of the summer.  

Central Bank	Current  Rate	Decision
BOE - UK Sterling	5.00	Hold Steady
ECB - Euro	4.00	Hold Steady
RBA - Australia	7.25	Hold Steady
RNNZ - New Zealand	8.25	Hold Steady

Differential Keeps Carry Traders Happy?
There were no surprises this week from any of the four central banks that had scheduled interest rate policy announcements. All held interest rates steady. New Zealand and Australia are sporting some nice interest rates for Carry Traders if they are willing to take the risk of te sudden unwinds that can happen.
NEW - Video Analysis




Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN),He is available as a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

Technorati Tags: interest rates,dollar,euro,Bernanke,Trichet,carry trade,inflation,techincal analysis


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hefeiddd

Posted on June 4, 2008 at 19:26 in Fundamental Analysis, News: Scheduled and Breaking, Technical Analysis by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
100 Pip Run - AUD-USD 30 Min June 3, 2008 — 22:30

Australia GDP numbers surprised to the upside and the Aussie took off over 100 pips as shown by the chart above. GDP came in at +0.6%, twice the 0.3% expected. Consumers seem to be spending and suspicions for a rate hike are in play for the AUD.

Euro Set To Go - Which Way???

Euro In The Box
The Euro has settled into a nice consolidation range. The ECB led by Trichet is set to announce interest rate policy tomorrow. Will the Euro Stay in the Box until then?
EUR vs USD  - Earnings Reports Comparison
Current data shows that Europe is far from decoupled. The Financial Times reported today that Net Earnings of European countries have fallen over 23% while the US is only showing a drop of 13%. Trichet;s tightrope is walking between fighting inflation and an economic slowdown that can not be ignored. The argument for a “pause” with “no bias” is strong.
Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN),He is available as a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.
Technorati Tags: Euro,Aussie,dollar,consolidation,interest Rates,earnings,Trichet

Bernanke Jawbones the Dollar
Posted on June 3, 2008 at 15:43 in News: Scheduled and Breaking, Technical Analysis by Jerry FurstNo Comments »

Hints of Rate Increases ahead of other Central Banks decisions this week
Euro Drops 160 pips - Pound Falls 120


Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN),He is available as a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.

Technorati Tags: Interest Rates,BOE,ECB,RBA,RBNZ,NFP,non farm payroll,webinar,week ahead,calendar

hefeiddd

Technorati Tags: Interest Rates,BOE,ECB,RBA,RBNZ,NFP,non farm payroll,webinar,week ahead,calendar
US GDP and Unemployment Figures:Good? –> Oil: Bad?
Posted on May 29, 2008 at 17:08 in Fundamental Analysis, News: Scheduled and Breaking, Technical Analysis by Jerry FurstNo Comments »

Volatility was muted as GDP and Unemployment numbers came in with no surprises and barely fazed the currencies.
GBP-USD 1 Minute Chart 11am EDT

Triangle Patterns Can Work on Any Time Frame
US Oil inventories came in unexpectedly lower than expected and their was a slight pop on the charts - for about 5 minutes
FDIC: “Take your Lumps!”
CNBC’s Steve Leesman interviewed a representative of the FDIC and asked about the health of the Federal Bank Insurance organization.
There seemed to be yet another warning being issued - similar to Bernanke’s comments about possible  Regional Bank failures - that given the “continued uncertainty” the FDIC would like to see higher than the “normal” minimum on bank reserves.
Other comments were that there are still some ways to go in the troubled housing market and they would like to see the foreclosures level off and get the houses selling - even if some people and institutions have to “take their lumps”
- Subscribe to the blog with the link on the right to keep posted…
Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN),He is available as a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.
Technorati Tags: GDP,FDIC,Bernanke,triangle pattern,technical analysis,oil


Union of South American Nations Formed - Was That a Tree Falling?
Posted on May 27, 2008 at 7:43 in News: Scheduled and Breaking, Relevant Ramblings, Technical Analysis by Jerry FurstNo Comments »

We Interrupt This Broadcast  -   Ohh, Nevermind..
Last Friday May 23, 2008  - According to Marco Sibaja of the Associated press, 12 nations of South America signed an agreement to form a “Continental Parliament” fashioned after the European Union.  The “Union of South American Nations” or abbreviated is UNASUR has been born. A Google search was needed to reassure myself that the news was “official” and sure enough Wikipedia has the facts laid out.
New Currency On The Way
As a currency trader my interest was piqued as I learned on Wikipedia that this has been in the planning stages for a long time. The presidents of the seven founding countries (Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Ecuador, Paraguay, Venezuela and Uruguay) have already officially launched the South American Bank in Buenos Aires in December 2007.

“We are here to make Simón Bolívar’s dream real. [...] Sooner, rather than later, we shall have a single currency, a single passport… Sooner, rather than later, we shall have a parliament with directly elected representatives for this new nation that we are creating today. “ —Former Peruvian President Alejandro Toledo, 8 December 2004. Source: Wikipedia

I watched patiently for any major news organization to pick up on any of this, especially the Sunday major network shows  - But all we get is Barrack and Hillary 7×24…  It seems to me that this is like the proverbial “tree falling in the Brazilian Rain Forest” - Is this not major news? Is anybody out there?  There’s tress falling everywhere!  (and I think the Chinese want to make chop sticks out of them!)   

Back to Our Regular Programming - and the charts,,,,

GBP-USD Daily Chart above - Resistance is Futile (click to enlarge)


GBP-USD 30 Min Chart above - Sterling in the Box! (click to enlarge)
Look carefully and you can see the failed inverse Head and Shoulder that completed quickly.
Good trading to ya’all.. down south… Happy Pippin…
Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN),He is available as a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients Click Here for a Free Self Evaluation Survey.
Technorati Tags: Union of South American Nations,UNASUR,UNASUL,constitution,May 23 2008,common currency,GBP,USD,Dollar,trading,techincal analysis,resistance is futile


The Week Ahead - May 26 - 30

Posted on May 23, 2008 at 23:58 in Technical Analysis by Jerry FurstNo Comments »


USD-CAD 30 Min Chart

Dollar Breaks Out of the Loonie Box in Final Minutes of Week (Click to Enlarge)
The last few posts have documented a text book example of a consolidation “box”.  In the final minutes of the New York session the US Dollar made a break out of the box - and now is on higher ground - for now. The question is: What will happen when the markets re-open on Sunday - especially with the Memorial Day Holiday in the US? Stay Tuned….


US Home Sales - and the Dollar - Still Under Pressure
Posted on May 23, 2008 at 18:14 in Technical Analysis by Jerry FurstNo Comments »


CAD-USD 60 Min May 23, 2008 12 Noon EDT (Click to enlarge)
Reacting to US Home Sales -  The chart above as of 12 Noon shows the market moving from the previous post about an hour ago! Resistance is now being tested to the upside as I type. The 10 am 60 minute bar - (possibly reacting to US existing home sales) opened at the low end of 0.9834 and topping out at 0.9877 - closing near the top at 0.9872. That’s 43 pips - which is approximately  the same width of the box.
Technorati Tags: US Home Sales,Dollar,Canadian,Loonie,chart,technical anlayis


Chart Review
Posted on May 23, 2008 at 17:41 in Uncategorized by Jerry FurstNo Comments »


The Loonie in the Box  - 1 Day Later

CAD-USD 60 Min May 23, 2008 10:30am EDT (Click to enlarge)
The CAD-USD pair 24 hours later is still going sideways in the box. The chart above overlays the previous posted with current price at time of posting. The current range of 0.9878-0.9825is being tested to the up side with the 10 am 60 minute bar opening at the low end of 0.9834 and topping out at 0.9877 - closing near the top at 0.9872. That’s 43 pips - which is approximately  the same width of the box.

Aussie Doing the 2-Step - Back up

AUD-USD 2 Hour Chart May 23 2008 10:30am EDT (Click to enlarge)
The Stair step that I posted May 21st around midnight took the step down - and in the process broke the trend channel. Price has since bottomed out at 0.9542 and is reversing to the upside. As of this posting price has exceeded the 75% retracement and stepped back up into the previous range above resistance.
Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network(IEN),He is available as a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients Click Here for a Free Survey and 15 or 30 Minute Consultation.
Technorati Tags: Aussie,Canada,US,Dollar,Chart Patterns,Technical Analysis. USD-CAD,FX,Curreny


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hefeiddd

Posted on May 22, 2008 at 16:26 in Technical Analysis by Jerry FurstNo Comments »

(Click on Chart to Enlarge)
Symmetrical Box Pattern
The above chart shows the USD-CAD 60 min chart in a nice consolidation range of 40  pips. This box pattern is split symmetrically with 20 pip ranges each. There is also an upper and lower buffer range of a few pips for extra measure.
The Canadian Dollar continues to strengthen as hints that the Bank of Canada may be poised to hold or start raising rates. This is in addition to Canada having oil reserves in the form of shale - ready to be cracked - as Oil and other commodities continue to spike.
Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network(IEN),He is available as a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients Click Here for a Free Survey and 15 or 30 Minute Consultation.
Technorati Tags: Oil,Loonie,Forex,Chart pattern,technical analysis. USD-CAD,FX,dollar,trading,range


Oil Up - Dollar Down - Aussie Takes the Stairs
Posted on May 22, 2008 at 5:36 in Technical Analysis by Jerry FurstNo Comments »

FOMC Minutes Released - Fed Cuts Growth Targets - Worries About Inflation
What’s a Central Bank to do? Depending on who you read and listen to - there is either reason for concern - or “the worst is over”.  The messages being telegraphed from the likes of Trichet and Bernanke as well as the BOE and even the Australian and New Zealand banks all are extremely concerned about inflation - and slower growth.
Going Up - Down Under — Aussie vs. US Dollar
Ascending Trend Channel

The 2 hour chart (above) shows the AUD-USD gaining continued strength with a well formed ascending channel.
60 Minute Stair Step Pattern

The same AUD-USD pair  but the 60 minutes chart (above) shows a really nice “Stair Step” pattern. Of course, the question is - which step is next?
Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network(IEN),He is available as a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients Click Here for a Free Survey and 15 or 30 Minute Consultation.


Posted on May 17, 2008 at 3:01 in Fundamental Analysis, News: Scheduled and Breaking, Technical Analysis by Jerry FurstNo Comments »



Calls for Rate Increases Rising to an Audible Level for Bernanke
Rising Oil prices and Food prices worldwide can be attributed to the falling US Dollar, and like it or not - there is no other real “safe haven” in the world. So finally…. the Fed is making noise that it might start raising interest rates and supporting the US Dollar.  US consumer confidence is reported to be at it’s lowest since 1980! Former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker has been very vocal lately about Bernanke’s team ignoring inflation. When Volcker was Chairman he raised interest rates into the high “teens” in the early 1980’s. This successfully stopped the bleeding of the US Dollar for the Reagan administration. Volcker is also credited for causing a recession in the process.
Signs of Other Central Banks Frustrations
On Friday, ECB member Erikki Liikanen echoed and restated Trichet’s comments about Central Bank policy being focused on the “Long Term” price stability and watching inflation. This is in contrast to the “Short Term” interest rate policy that the US Treasury has been using to maintain liquidity in the financial markets amongst banks. The Financial Times front page reported that the ECB is investigating that banks are exploiting the liquidity of low interest rates to  “offload more risky assets”
Euro Rising - For Now

Technical Analysis - Interest-ing Chart  (click on chart to enlarge)
The Euro gained about 100 pips in the New York session closing the week at approx 1.5575. The 60 Minute chart above on the EUR-USD is interesting from many angles. Friday’s close shows a nice Triangle Pattern that is in play. 1.5700 is a potential target If this Triangle completes, as it coincides with a 1,618 extension.  Price settled in at a “Prior Resistance Level“  at the May 6 spike just shy of 1.56. Also interesting in this chart is a Fibonacci Cluster with 200 and 161.8 extensions at the 1.5780 range.
Beware that any clear signs of raising US interest rates from the FOMC could see the Dollar gain substantially and quickly  - Despite the bullish implications on this chart for the Euro.





40 pip Spike on the CPI News The US Dollar reaction to the CPI numbers took the Euro from 1.5440 to 1.5480 in a few minutes – The Pound also gained about 40 pips from 1.9420 to 1.9460 - and 90 minutes later gave back most of the gains.  
Technorati Tags: Forex,currencies,US Dollar,Euro,Pound,CPI,USD,Inflation,Glenn Beck,Shadow Government Statistics,gas,TIPS,bonds

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hefeiddd

Pound Drops - FT says Slowing UK Economy - Lower Rates Fundamental data coming out of the UK confirms some technical weakness for the pound. CPI increased from 2.5% to 3% in April and theFinancial Times reported that UK Sales dropped 1.5% in April - the first time spending has dropped two consecutive months since 2005. FT article also suggests that the BOE may need to lower rates .25 in June.  Today’s Chart - click to enlarge Chart above shows an expanding wedge on the 4 hour chart with strong resistance at the 1.9600 range confirmed with several Fibonacci levels and the 50 SMA.  Tune In to Live Webinar’s - Broadcast Free - on FX Street New Time-12 Noon Eastern Time - Every Monday Tune in to my Live Webinars every Monday at 12 Noon Eastern US Time - 16:00 GMT for the “1st on Forex - The Week Ahead” - Click Here to Register for your Free Password and Admission to the Show! Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN),He is available as a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients Click Here for a Free Survey and 15 or 30 Minute Consultation.
Interest Rate Watch - Oil Ready For Final Spike?
Posted on May 8, 2008 at 0:13 in Uncategorized by Jerry FurstNo Comments »

What’s Trichet Going To Do - Or Say? The Bank of England – BOE, and the European Central Bank seemed to cast a cloud over the currency markets on Wednesday. Expectations that both Banks will hold rates steady on Thursday left traders with a relatively tame trading day. The chart below shows an unusually quiet GBP-USD pair  trading a very tight 30 pip range for the NY Session.   Chart Above - Pound Trades in Tight 30 Pip Range Ahead of Rate Announcements Oil – Ready for a Blow Off Top? I hear more and more speculation that Oil has no overhead resistance and will soon be spiking to heights of $150 - $200! Could we be ready for a blow off top? Usually when there is chatter of unlimited, unbelievable prices (Do you remember the books titled like “Dow 30,000” just before the Tech Bubble Burst?) this helps the bulls to run over the cliff at full speed - faster than Wylie Coyote! Further, there is also talk of raising margin requirements for the Oil pits that would potentially slow down the speculation. The question is -  is the current price above $120 sustainable and valid? Economists looking for high prices to curb demand are detached from the reality that the high price of oil is a weak US Dollar issue - as all Oil is settled in US Dollars. The sooner Hank Paulson and Ben Bernanke acknowledge, accept, and react to this fact - with paying more than lip service to a strong dollar - the sooner we all will pay less for gas and oil.  When The Going Gets Tough, … Filler Up – and Charge It! The US consumer is continuing to spend on credit with a surprise number of over $15Billion! This is way above the consensus expected range of $3B to $7.5 Billion. The report coming at 3pm Eastern time could be viewed as good or bad depending on your angle. The currency markets ignored it completely. Could it be that the middle class is filling their gas tanks with plastic? Tune In to My Live Webinar’s - Broadcast Free - on FX Street New Time-12 Noon Eastern Time - Every Monday and….Today Twice! Tune in to my Live Webinars every Monday at 12 Noon Eastern US Time - 16:00 GMT for the “1st on Forex - The Week Ahead” - Also - register for  my live coverage of the GDP and FOMC announcements here on FX Street - Click Here to Register for your Free Password and Admission to the Show! Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN),He is available as a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients Click Here for a Free Survey and 15 or 30 Minute Consultation.


Technically Speaking - Dollar - Gold
Posted on May 6, 2008 at 2:08 in Uncategorized by Jerry Furst3 Comments »


US Dollar - Time For a Real Rally?
There is plenty of speculation as to what Jean Claude Trichet will do with the Euro zone’s interest rates. Depending on who you listen to the ECB may move rates up, down, or keep them steady. To his credit, Trichet keeps us guessing with statements that he is concerned about inflation and slowing growth.  Hypothetically - All it would take is a clear policy statement from JCT of staying steady - or for a shock a mention of dropping rates - and the US dollar will be able to roar back.

Pound Predictions?

Looking at the Weekly chart (above ckick to enlarge) for the Pound Sterling vs. US Dollar you can see that a Head and Shoulder pattern may be completing if price was to drop to the 1.9100 range. This would complete the right shoulder. If that happens - you will have a bounce or break off the supporting neck line. A Dollar Rally will be confirmed if this neck line is broken.

US Dollar Poking Holes in the Swiss Cheese?

The USD-CHF (above) is usually a good indicator of Dollar Direction. The chart above shows the 100 SMA has held as resistance quite well - but a solid break above that line - would have it also break above the current up trend channel. If that happens, it could signal a real Greenback rally against  the British Sterling and the Euro.

Meanwhile Back in the Darkened Gold Mines


Gold - Giving Traders the Shoulder - Heading Lower?
While Oil is posting lifetime record Highs, and the US Dollar shows a lack of direction, Gold is showing a chart pattern that might be bearish. The Daily chart of Street Tracks ETF GLD shows a Head and Shoulders Pattern with a broken neck line. The neck line coincides with the key 61.8% retracement level support level making this line quite significant if it is violated again. The 200 Period Daily SMA is currently at just about 81. GLD typically trades at 1/10th of the spot price.

Tune In to My Live Webinar’s - Broadcast Free - on FX Street
New Time-12 Noon Eastern Time - Every Monday and….Today Twice! Tune in to my Live Webinars every Monday at 12 Noon Eastern US Time - 16:00 GMT for the “1st on Forex - The Week Ahead” - Also - register for  my live coverage of the GDP and FOMC announcements here on FX Street - Click Here to Register for your Free Password and Admission to the Show! Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN),He is available as a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients Click Here for a Free Survey and 15 or 30 Minute Consultation.


Fed Cuts Rates - Jobless Grows - Dollar Confusion
Posted on May 2, 2008 at 17:22 in Uncategorized by Jerry FurstNo Comments »

When Bad News is Good
The US Dollar rallied Friday morning as the Non-Farm Payrolls Report - NFP showed a net loss of only -20,000 jobs. This negative growth of jobs was a positive surprise as it was much better than the expected job loss range of -150,000 to -25,000K .
Euro Double Bottoms at 1.5400 - click to enlarge chart


Gold and Oil Up - Despite Dollar Rally
Usually we see a very clear inverse correlation between the US Dollar vs. Oil and Gold - However as of this posting Oil is up over a Dollar at 113.73 and Gold is Up at $855 - So go figure. Yesterday Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson stated once again his “long term” strong dollar policy.  Reuters is quoting Paulson saying, “I’m a strong dollar man” - please….
Planned Confusion: Now You See It… Now You Don’t
15 minutes before the NFP report the Fed announced that in conjunction with the ECB and the Swiss National Bank they increased their liquidity arsenal from $50 to $75 Billion available through the TAF or Treasury Auction Facility. That’s an an extra $25 Billion between friends! They are also increasing the “Frequency” of the auctions. This unexpected announcement caused some confusion to an already tense trading world awaiting the NFP. Was this timing planned? The FED clearly watches CNBC for direction (not to mention the Futures) - perhaps they wanted some attention just before NFP? I think they should pay attention (and a consulting fee) to Rick Santelli :>)
Waiting Game For Clarity? Read - Fed Minutes
Transparency used to be quite clear with Ben Bernanke, but it appears as if the guessing game is on! Wednesday the FOMC led by Ben Bernanke cut interest rates the expected .25 lowering it’s bank rate to 2.0% - However, the Fed left no hint of future policy.. leaving my previous post on April 30th correct - stating that we will have to wait until May 21st for the FOMC minutes report to see what was discussed. Again - restating my previous post, the next FOMC scheduled announcement is not until June 25th - leaving the window open for surprise announcements.
New Time for Weekly Webinar - 12 Noon EDT (16:00 GMT)
Tune in to my Live Webinars every Monday at 12 Noon Eastern US Time - 16:00 GMT for the “1st on Forex - The Week Ahead” -
Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder ofInvestors Education Network (IEN),He is available as a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients Click Here for a Free Survey and 15 or 30 Minute Consultation.


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hefeiddd

Posted on April 19, 2008 at 1:38 in Uncategorized by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
Relief Rally - or Short Squeeze?
As many traders were anticipating the Euro to test the 1.60 mark, the US Dollar had other plans. Reasons for the Dollar rally run rampant as analysts needing a story speculated that Citigroup’s $5.1 Billion Loss ($16 Billion in Trading Write Downs), and cutting another 9,000 jobs was a relief rally… Go Figure!
Break Out - Fake Out


The charts (Click to Enlarge) show how large and violent Friday’s European session was. The above Ascending Triangle break proved to be a fake out.
The Euro’s Upward Trend Channel (shown below) that begins back on March 12 was marked from top to bottom in one 4 Hour bar. The Euro bounced off support around 1.5700 before the New York session began and closed the day and the week in the middle of the channel near the 38.2 retracement level of 1.5817.
Euro Dives Over 240 Pips

An “orderly decay” of the US Dollar on the long term charts sounds reasonable to assume.
According to the CFTC’s COT report - Speculators are moving away from the Euro and into the Yen. Speculators or not. It should be noted that the Dollars rally was not contained to the Euro as all the charts were showing extreme volatility. It should also be noted that the British Pound Sterling bounced up against the Dollar closing at 1.9973 and tapping the 2.00 mark.

Gold and Silver Index: Up Channel - Wedge - 50% Retracement


You are Invited to attend “1st on Forex-Week Ahead Webinar” Free
I expect the volatility on the currencies will continue as a battle over some very strong chart patterns need to be played out to the north or south. Tune in to my Weekly Webinar - “1st on Forex - The Week Ahead” every Monday morning at 7am EDT - 11:00 GMT - on FX Street - Click Here to Register - and Attend Free.
Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN),He is available as a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients Click Here for a Free Survey and 15 Minute Consultation.

Sterling Strugling as Euro Poised For New Highs
Posted on April 16, 2008 at 16:53 in Uncategorized by Jerry FurstNo Comments »

G7 - Gee Whiz - Now What?
Last Weekends G7 Meeting left observers with nice words of cooperation - but as the respective leaders headed their separate ways to the four corners of the globe - the currencies seem to be on their own paths now as well.
The G7 is calling for China to increase the flexibility of it’s currency - But it seems to me that all that will do is cause the price of their exports to go up - causing more inflation for consumers worldwide!  Click Here for a Link to the G-7 Statement

Euro Poised for 1.60 Range?
On Wednesday the Euro zone reported higher than expected inflation - dragging down hopes that Trichet might lower interest rates to help prop up the US Dollar.   

Inverse Head and Shoulders on 30 Min Chart

Click to Enlarge
Ascending Triangle on Daily Chart

Click to Enlarge

Tracking Errors?
Although the UK came out with better than expected CPI numbers the Pound Sterling seems to almost track the US Dollar down more than it’s traditional tracking of the Euro - currently on it’s way up.


Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN),He is available as a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients Click Here for a Free Survey and 15 Minute Consultation. Tune into his broadcasts weekly on FX Street with “1stonForex the Week Ahead”.

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Tune into his broadcasts weekly on FX Street with “1stonForex the Week Ahead”.  G7 Meets - Interest Rates - UN-Interesting
Posted on April 10, 2008 at 18:18 in Uncategorized by Jerry FurstNo Comments »

G7 This Weekend the Group of 7 – Finance ministers meet in Washington and the US Dollar and FX rates appears to be high on the list of topics. European Central Bank President Trichet has indicated that rates will stay stable as the ECB walks a tightrope of being concerned about inflation, while extremely concerned about market turmoil. He was quoted Thursday as saying, “I deplore the excessive volatility in exchange rates.” GBP-USD The currency markets were little changed as there were no surprises to the markets as the Bank of England cut interest rates .25% to 5.00%   Euro – USD The European Central Bank left rates steady at 4.00% as expected. The currency markets had little reaction as continued intervention seems to be at work. Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), Tune into his broadcasts weekly on FX Street with “1stonForex the Week Ahead”.  He is available as a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients Click Here for a Free Survey and 15 Minute Consultation


Pound Under Pressure - Euro on the Rise
Posted on March 28, 2008 at 21:50 in Fundamental Analysis, Technical Analysis by Jerry FurstNo Comments »

As the Dollar Bides Its Time
It has been a rather boring week of headlines and news announcements compared to the volatility of the past few weeks.
Focusing on the US Dollar - It could be argued that intervention is at work propping up the Greenback for the past two weeks. Active traders have witnessed an amazing pause in the laws of gravity as the Dollar has actually strengthened in the face of negative forces, most notably after the Fed cut interest rates on March 18. Others may call it consolidation… But the Dollar can only hold on for so long - paused against expectations of further rates cuts by Bernanke. The EMU has expressed several times this past week that their main concern is with inflation and feel that growth will continue as demand continues from areas other than the US.
Pound Losing It’s Sterling?

The Above Chart Shows a Classic Head and Shoulders patter on a 30 minute chart that would have netted savvy Technical Traders with over 130 pips!
Euro on the Rise!



The Chart Above Shows the Euro Strengthening against the Pound
Jerry Furst is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), Tune into his broadcasts weekly on FX Street with “1stonForex the Week Ahead”. He is available as a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients Click Here for a Free Survey and 15 Minute Consultation


Thee Calm Before…….. The Fed (and After?)
Posted on March 18, 2008 at 16:12 in Uncategorized by Jerry FurstNo Comments »

More Volatility Ahead?
Markets are in a state of shock Tuesday mourning awaiting the 2:15pm Eastern time US interest rate announcement. Sunday’s slaughter of Bear Stearns has evaporated  as it appears to me that Intervention is at work around the globe to avoid systemic panic. This is is a good thing - I think…. Ben Bernanke and his advisors (who ever they are) have done a magnificent job of keeping the markets orderly. As of this writing the DOW is up over 250 at 12,222 points and the S&P 500 is up over 30 points at 1308. Bravo Ben!

Euro Trending Nicely against the Dollar - Click Chart to Enlarge
2:15 - The Moment of Truth - Save or Kill the Dollar
At 2:15 the currency markets will show just how much (if any) intervention is at work - as the guessing game for Interest rate announcement ranges from a 1.25% cut to people like myself that say rates should hold steady at current rates. If they surprise by holding rates (please!)  then the dollar may rebound quickly and help to establish a sense of security in the financial markets  liquid. The Flip side - The Fed already cut .25% in a surprise move on Sunday - a smart move - so if they lower a full point - It might be look out below…! It might even signal a new Gold Rush.
You can tune in to my live Webinars every Monday at 7 am EST and Today I will be covering the FOMC interest rate announcement - live on FX Street - Free - Click here to register.
Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), Tune into his broadcasts weekly on FX Street with "1stonForex the Week Ahead".  He is available as a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients Click Here for a Free Survey and 15 Minute Consultation


To Save The Dollar - Fed Should Keep Rates Steady!
Posted on March 17, 2008 at 5:02 in Uncategorized by Jerry FurstNo Comments »

Shock and Awe - Bear Sterns Sold Out - at $2 Share Sunday Night!
The Fed is using Depression era measures! The Dollar is breaking down into free fall. All bets are off - current market conditions are in flux as the Asian Session opens. Breaking news announcements are likely to be coming from expected and unexpected corners. How many other banks - worldwide - are going to be gutted?
The Good News Is…The Worst is Probably at Hand!
Smell the Fear….The above paragraph - as true and as panicked as it sounds signals that  the capitulation days that are necessary to get past the worst - is at hand. However, it reminds me of living through several hurricanes recently in south Florida. Despite the fact that you know a dangerous storm is bearing down on a path headed straight for you -  The best you can do is take cover and pray. The waiting is the hardest part, it can seem to never end. Surveying the damage comes later - your main concern is survival. However, the landscape that was once familiar may no longer exist - Just like Bear Stearns.
Rate Cuts are Not the Answer - Save the Dollar NOW
Although Ben Bernanke has stated that the FOMC watches the Fed Funds Futures Rates - It’s about time for the chairman to flex his muscle and pause the rate cuts to save not only the US Dollar - but the world economic system. The Fed chief might find some new respect too…
Lower the rates more than .25% and the Dollar will likely free fall. If it was up to me….. I would hold the rates steady!
Saving the Big Banks - Let the Little Ones Disappear?
The front page of Investors Business Daily Saturday stated,” the Federal Reserve made clear that some banks are simply too big to fail.” So wrote Jed Graham. The problem I have with this is that there has been zero oversight of the mergers and acquisitions of financial institutions - or any business for that fact - What happened to anti-trust law?. Correct me if I am wrong - but JP Morgan now has the Bank of New York, Chase, Mellon, and how many other entities under it’s roof. I thought the idea is to have risk spread around - not consolidated. Now they are handed Bear Stearns for a few million dollars? What happens if JP Morgan ends up in trouble?
Which Bank and how many - individuals - are next?
Two weeks ago Congress asked Bernanke about what to do about massive credit card debt being held by individuals with rates adjusting to loan shark levels! Ben’s response was that people need to know what they are buying…. Not good enough Ben - Your ignoring the warning - just like when Congress tried to warn you and Greenspan over two years ago that the housing market was getting overdone with improper lending.
I am amazed that the US can spend Billions a month in Iraq - but let American institutions and individuals get crushed.  

Yen Rally’s as I Anticipated Thursday - Now What?
Pound Craters agaist the Yen - We have seen this before

As of this typing at 23:30 Eastern time March 16 the GBP-JPY has traded below 194, down from 200 at the sessions open only a few hours ago. The chart above going back to 1986 shows several times when the Pound has slid quite fast against the Yen - Are we there again?
Tune in to my live Webinars every Monday at 7 am EST and Tuesday I will be covering the FOMC interest rate announcement - live on FX Street - Free - Click here to register.  
Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), Tune into his broadcasts weekly on FX Street with “1stonForex the Week Ahead”.  He is available as a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients Click Here for a Free Survey and 15 Minute Consultation with Jerry


Where Does It End? Yen To Rally?
Posted on March 14, 2008 at 6:25 in Uncategorized by Jerry FurstNo Comments »

Duck and Cover- Dollars Falling
Why do I get the feeling Imelda Markus’s shoe collection is about to drop…
So the Fed tried to prop up the dollar with $200 Billion - Nice try - it lasted for a few Hours… Gold hit $1,000 an ounce and Oil hit $111 a barrel…. Bush says the Dollar is adjusting….Carlyle Capital Collapses… and Hank Paulson is asking financial institutions to cut dividends to preserve capital….
Calls for Emergency G7 Intervention - Not So Fast….
During a press conference today, the US Treasury Secretary stated once again a strong Dollar policy - but when asked to explain -  he was at a loss for words. The call for intervention by the G7 is going out…. Well - the buzz is that the Bank of Japan is fighting the call to intervene to prop up the Dollar, citing the market is too large and intervention might fail. Leaving Trichet with pressure to lower rates.
FOMC Meeting Next Week - Rate Cut In Question
Past rate cuts have had a temporary saving effect on the US equity markets - but the Fed is finally feeling the heat of the harsh reality that it’s just too painful for the Dollar. Expectations for next week by most pundits are expecting a .75% rate cut - and .50% at least at the March 18 FOMC meeting.  My guess is that the Fed will surprise by leaving rates steady….
Yen to Continue Rally? Or is Pattern Complete
Back on January 8,  I posted the Weekly chart of the Pound-Yen at around 215 with a very nice Head and Shoulder pattern breaking the neck line and in play. it was a text book looking example….

Above - January 8 - Post with Head and Shoulder on Weekly Chart in Play
Below - March 13 - Pattern now completing as we approach the 203 range.

Stopping the Bleeding - At What Cost - Arm - Leg?
The question now is will this level become support? Will the Yen, a Proxy for the Asian region continue to Rally? Will Intervention Be Used and If So - Will It Stop the Dollars Slide? - My Guess is the Plunge Protection Team will apply a tourniquet and stop the bleeding - but an arm or a leg may need to come off….
Jerry Furst is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), he is also a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients Click Here for a Free Survey and 15 Minute Consultation


Interesting Week Unfolds – Dollar Stinks and Sinks Down Under
Posted on March 7, 2008 at 4:07 in News: Scheduled and Breaking, Relevant Ramblings, Technical Analysis by Jerry Furst3 Comments »

Read my post of January 8 – As at that time two months ago we were awaiting Interest rate announcements from across the pond. Since then the UK has lowered rates a .25% to 5.25% and Trichet and the ECB has held rates steady at 4.0% - But the key point here is that at that time – it became apparent to me that despite the words coming out of US Treasury Secretary Paulson’s mouth –  well to put it bluntly - nah….. I’ll be nice… He’s got such bags under his eyes…..I think he should switch jobs with Condolesa Rice - I think she sleeps better at night…. and eats better too….
The FOMC’s actions were poised to “Damn the Dollar”.    Is what I stated back then and Since then the damage to the US Dollar has been nothing short of "damning". Ben Stein tonight on the Glenn Beck Show said, “There is no End to the Fall of the Dollar” Well….I basically said that two months ago…. the difference is that now Ben Bernanke has recently publicly distanced himself from his mentor -  Secretary Paulson’s policy of a "Strong US Dollar" policy. Stating that his main concern is economic growth. Really, I though he said it was guarding against inflation - at least that was his line back in August. How stupid do they think we are? Or maybe they just  figure that most people could care less about the "facts".  Unfortunately - It is not Ben Bernanke’s fault - and to his credit - He’s holding up well in the "hot seat" Anyone else want his job?
Sometimes I wish I was wrong but my next post on January 22 called that the US was in recession (while most pundits were still debating it) and I raised the notion that a “Depression” is possible. Well with Oil spiking past $105 and Gold heading for $1,000 an ounce – the average person on any street in most any country is likely to be oblivious to what is coming. For new readers - I suggest you scroll back and read my past ramblings….If you dare….
Non Farm Payroll - Is it real?
OK – well – now that the UK and ECB has left interest rates alone today – all eyes are turned to the Non Farm Payroll report due out in a few hours – as if that really reflects the “facts”.  If the government wanted to report the "facts" it would be easy to calculate all "legal" workers and residents in the US with Social Security numbers that are either paying into payroll taxes - vs. retired - or not paying into "the system".  But that might make sense. Ohhhh… and Let’s see what the revisions are….  I believe they basically just count how many people are collecting unemployment checks. … Anyway…..
So as the Greenback Sinks – let’s look Downunder at the AUD-USD

Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), Tune into his broadcasts weekly on FX Street with "1stonForex the Week Ahead".  He is available as a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients Click Here for a Free Survey and 15 Minute Consultation with Jerry


Euro Breaks Above 1.50 - Loonie Gains 400 Pips
Posted on February 27, 2008 at 5:24 in Uncategorized by Jerry FurstNo Comments »

As Predicted Yesterday4 Month Trading Range Pierced Today
What’s Next? The question now is will the Euro continue higher or drop back into the range.  There is projected resistance at 1.5130 and 1.52.  The answer may come from ben Bernanke’s testimony tomorrow - or perhaps with Thursday’s US GDP report.
The Dollar began it’s slide after Fed Vice Chairman Kohn said Tuesday that, ” “Interest rates cuts will not stop…”  the housing market from going through tough times.”
The Loonie Gains on Weak DollarThe US Dollar dropped from 1.02 to below 0.98 in rapid fashion. Attendees of my Monday morning session on FX Street were treated to in depth analysis on the USD-CAD showing support levels that sliced through.
Current Support is seen at 0.9809 and 0.9776 and resistance at 0.9917.

US GDP Report this Thursday - I will be broadcasting a special Live Coverage Webinar Free here on FX Street beginning at 7:30am Eastern time. Click Here to Tune in
Jerry Furst  is an active trader, educator, and Founder of Investors Education Network (IEN), Tune into his broadcasts weekly on FX Street with “1stonForex the Week Ahead”.  He is available as a Mentor and Trading Coach to Select Clients Click Here for a Free Survey and 15 Minute Consultation


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