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Posted on March 5, 2007 at 15:48 in Uncategorized by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
A Few weeks after the G7 stated that they “support the orderly adjustment of global imbalances” The Yen for the Yen is quiet obvious. I had been commenting for a few weeks to people how all the Carry Traders were bound to eventually run for the exits once the pain and the stops began to get triggered.
GBP-JPY - Classic Stair Step Pattern on 15 Minute Chart (Click to Enlarge)
Who is Jerry Furst? President of Investors Education Network (IEN), Mr. Furst is also a mentor and trading coach to select clients.
Jerry can be reached at [email=JerryB1st@ienweb(dot)com]JerryB1st@ienweb(dot)com[/email] or visit www.InvestorsEducationNetwork.com.
Volatility - You’ve Gotta Love It!
Posted on March 2, 2007 at 6:22 in Uncategorized by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
Greenspan Speaks Again! - (Click on Chart)
Can you guess the Moving Average?
I am amazed at how many “pundits” are blaming Alan Greenspan for the recent market correction. It’s like giving Bill Clinton credit for inflating the tech bubble of the late 1990’s (as he was taking care of business in the oval office and Air Force One!) Well wait, he did hire the other “Al Green” that created the internet that created the boom before the bust, before Y2K.
Spouting Blame vs. Taking Responsibility
A sure sign of a “rookie” is when they “blame” someone else for their bad trading. Whether it’s the “Market Makers”, the Dealing Desk, China, the Carry Trade, the Housing Market, Program Trading, let a lone a single person “Greenspan”. Rumor has it he shops at the supermarket in Boca Raton not far from my home. I’d love to have a moment to ask him what it’s like to have such power! But Seriously - It’s Amusing (is that an oxymoron) to see the parade of “pundits” as they point the finger of blame on a long awaited and anticipated retracement.
And then there are the “Successful Veterans” - calm, cautious, and careful - as they see opportunity in the volatility. They certainly do not see fear - except in the eyes of their victims being interviewed by Maria. I have to admit, it is entertaining.
I know of a Veteran trader in the futures markets, he made over 400 Dow eMini points Tuesday - “A New Personal Best” As the equity markets finally took a long overdue and expected retracement - I do not hear him thanking Alan Greenspan.
Stolen Picasso Found (Click on Image )
It’s a Picasso! - Happy Trading!
I’m taking the rest of the week and next week off with my trades on auto pilot! However, G-d (and FX Street) willing - I will be broadcasting my “1st on Forex - The Week Ahead” webinar here on FX Street - Monday at 7am EST - Be sure to tune in…Register Here - Wait - I’m not on the line up next week….
Traders - Remember to have some fun this weekend!
Who is Jerry Furst? President of Investors Education Network (IEN), Mr. Furst is also a mentor and trading coach to select clients.
Jerry can be reached at [email=JerryB1st@ienweb(dot)com]JerryB1st@ienweb(dot)com[/email] or visit www.InvestorsEducationNetwork.com.
9am - Yen Breaking Down - China to Blame?
Posted on February 27, 2007 at 16:20 in Uncategorized by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
Something Happening Here, What it is - Not Exactly Clear
The Chinese stock market in Shanghai had its largest loss in over 10 years, losing almost 10% of value. Is this an excuse to exit the Carry Trade?
GBP-YEN is testing Key Trend Line Support and a big 61.8% retracement
Or is there something else happening….
Fear on Bloomberg - As More News Comes In
A parade of panicked traders and Bears has been spotted… As the US Equity Markets were preparing to open - Is this a contrary indicator… or something more indicative to take note of?
Fear abounds as phrases like - Bad day ahead, they are running scared, sellloff, “So called Goldie-Locks market”, weakness, is this fundamental, exploiting emotions! My My…. they are talking about “Behavioral Finance!”
US Durable Goods fell 7.8% posting the worst results in almost two years! This began driving the US Dollar lower, Followed by better than expected Existing Home sales Rising 3%. Consumer Confidence also surprised to the upside…
What’s a Trader to do? - Trade or get out of the way…
Tomorrow the US GDP Report - 1st on FX Webinar
Tune in to the live webinar coverage of Wednesday’s US GDP Report on FX Street - register here
Mr. Furst is Founder of Investors Education Network - A mentor and trading coach to select clients. Jerry can be reached at JerryB1st (at) ienweb (dot) com or visit www.Investors-Education-Network.com
Special Webcast - Wed Feb 28 8am EST
Posted on February 25, 2007 at 21:04 in Uncategorized by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
Watch Live Coverage of the US GDP Report
This Wed String at 8:00am EST February 28
Sponsored by Investors Education Network on FX Street.com The US GDP report is closely watched as it tells institutions, governments, investors, and traders about the overall health of the US Economy. The release of this important economic indicator is likely to cause a temporary spike in volatility. - 8:00 AM (EST) - Before: What makes this scheduled event so important
- 8:30 AM (EST) - During: Watch the markets react with volatility spiking charts in all markets!
- 9:00AM (EST) - After: What Happened and What to Expect Next!
———> To Register for the special US GDP Webinar: [url=http://rs6.net/tn.jsp?t=ngvg47bab.0.0.zhh4dvn6.0&p=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.fxstreet.com%2Flive%2Fsessions%2Fsession.aspx%3Fid%3Dfc623772-0f93-418b-9732-b679d00e5221]Click Here to Register [/url]or copy and paste this link into your browser: http://tinyurl.com/2lncnn
Reminder - Register for “The Week Ahead” Weekly Webinar Every Monday at 7am EST Live on FX Street.com
AUD and CAD Rally While Yen Continues to Fall
Posted on February 21, 2007 at 22:00 in Uncategorized by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
Is it Real or is it the Carry Trade?
While everyone is talking about the BoJ raising a measly .25 to a whopping .5% the USD, GBP, and EUR seem to be enjoying continued strength against the Yen - but is it real or is it the Carry Trade? Eventually the Yen will correct.
Looking at the broader landscape the AUD-USD and CAD-USD look interesting. It could be a reason to look at Gold again…. but for now let’s look at the charts.
The USD-CAD is continuing it’s fall (click on Chart 1)
the AUD-USD has broken two trend lines to the upside (Click on chart 2)
FYI - Just hearing a report that US Equity Margin Debt is breaking above 2000 tech bubble levels…
Jerry Furst is Sr. Analyst for IEN-FX, presenter, educator, and trading coach/mentor. Tune in to his Webinars on FXstreet.com, every Monday at 7am EST for his 1st on Forex – The Week Ahead Live Report - Click to register
Holiday - What Holiday - Pound on the Move!
Posted on February 19, 2007 at 18:33 in Uncategorized by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
Well once again - the fact that the US Gov’t call it a Holiday may mean that the banks are closed - But Trading in the currencies goes on!
The Pound is tearing up (and down) the charts! (click to Enlarge)

FOMC: Data Dependant with Transparency
Posted on February 16, 2007 at 22:17 in Uncategorized by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
I like the charts….
Last weekends G7 meeting seems so far away now. Ben Bernanke’s testimony to Congress is done. Looks like the currencies are on the move. The Yen and Sterling is weakening, China is tightening, the Loonie looks bright… what’s a trader to do?
Look at Chart 1 - Is The Yen Finding Support - or Breaking the Trendline?
Look at Chart 2 - Is this a buying opportunity for the Sterling?
Look at Chart 3 - The Loonie is building more strength against the USD
Transparency Abounds - Interest Rate Watch, BoE, FOMC
Although sometimes it’s what not is said that can be most important - the days of the Fed being vague on future interest rate policy may be over - for now…It appears that the Fed is “Data Dependant with Transparency”
The following seems to be the current consensus for Interest Rates:
BoE - Raises rates .25 - .5
ECB - Raises rates .5 - 1.0
BoJ - Raises at the most 1.0
FOMC: Holds Steady - but “Data Dependant”
If you agree with the above Add to that the widening gap between the US Trade deficit and the Capital inflows - then the pressure on the US Dollar is on.
Jerry Furst is Sr. Analyst for IEN-FX, presenter, educator, and trading coach/mentor.
Tune in to his Webinars on FXstreet.com, every Monday at 7am EST for his 1st on Forex – The Week Ahead Live Report Click to register
USD Breaking Up Against the Loonie
Posted on February 14, 2007 at 6:04 in Uncategorized by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
A Not So Happy Valentines Day for Long Time USD-CAD pair
While the data released on Tuesday Feb 13th, 2007 shows that the US Trade Deficit continues to grow, Canada - the neighbor to the north, posted a larger surplus showing strong growth in both exports and imports.
Could this be the beginning of the end for the long time relationship of US Dollar strength against the Canadian Dollar. Often joked about in the past, The Loonie was often tossed aside like a rag doll and the butt of many jokes.
Trend Line and 50 SMA Break
The widening disparity in Trade Balance reports quickly showed up on the charts as the Loonie broke a strong uptrend that began back in Sept 2006. Winter is temporarily hibernating global warming advocates as Heating Oil comes back in demand and puts value back into the “Resource Currencies” such as Canada and Australia Chart one shows how the USD-CAD Daily 50 SMA has been a decent indicator that has proven to hold price quite well. That line and the solid up trend has now been violated.(Click on chart to enlarge)
Well, Once upon a time (not that long ago) the term “Made in Japan” was synonymous with an inferior product from a second rate country. Will the Loonie soon be given equal R-E-S-P-E-C-T in the relationship that often counts the most - next to your cheeks and in your wallet!
Jerry Furst is Sr. Analyst for IEN-FX, presenter, educator, and trading coach/mentor.
Tune in to his Webinars on FXstreet.com, every Monday at 7am EST for his 1st on Forex – The Week Ahead Live Report Click to register
Tuesday - Watch GDP and Trade Balance Reports
Posted on February 13, 2007 at 0:02 in Uncategorized by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
Scheduled Volatility Events
Main News for Tuesday Feb 12th is GDP reports from the Euro zone, GBP Core CPI due at 4:30am EST.
US Trade Balance Report at 8:30am EST. the consensus is that the US trade Gap will widen to -$59.8B. Canada also reports Trade balance at the same time as the US.
Japan reports Trade balance report at the beginning of their session 6:50pm EST Tuesday. Consumer Confidence for Japan is due out at 12 Midnight EST.
The US Dollar has been showing strength against the Majors. This may be an opportunity for dollar bears - but wait for Bernanke’s congressional testimony Wednesday before making any major decisions.
Jerry Furst is Sr. Analyst for IEN-FX, presenter, educator, and trading coach/mentor.
Tune in to his Webinars on FXstreet.com, every Monday at 7am EST for his 1st on Forex – The Week Ahead Live Report Click to register
G7 - Supports "Orderly Adjustment"
Posted on February 12, 2007 at 5:49 in Uncategorized by Jerry FurstNo Comments »
The G7 Finance Ministers official statement Sunday started off by stating that they “support the orderly adjustment of global imbalances” but did not name pairs! Is it an imbalance of the USD and China, or Euro-Yen.
Tough Talk Directed at China - Not Japan
Most analysts were expecting tough talk on the Yen to put pressure on Tokyo to raise rates. But the G7 had more to say about hedge funds than the Yen. thee was a statement of “exchange rates should reflect economic fundamentals.” However, this was directed at especially at “China, it is desirable that their effective exchange rates move so that necessary adjustments will occur.”
Hedge Funds Under Scrutiny
US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson released his own statement and stated that although the US wants a free and open price discovery market - Investor protection and financial stability must be maintained.
Friday’s Close on the GBP-USD Spike Marks Resistance
Although Spikes and Gaps are not supposed to occur in FX trading it is interesting to note when they do appear. Sometimes they can provide opportunities or clues as to what to expect. Chart 1 is a composite of over 500 data feeds. As the FX markets were closing on Friday February 9th, 2007 - a 400 pip spike on the GBP-USD took price from the 1.9500 range clear up to approx 1.9900!
This spike is also a double top going back a few weeks to January 23’s high.
Click on Chart One for a better view.
Jerry Furst is Sr. Analyst for IEN-FX, presenter, educator and mentor.
Tune in to his Webinars on FXstreet.com, every Monday at 7am EST for his 1st on Forex – The Week Ahead Live Report Click to register
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