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发表于 2009-4-7 18:22
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Posted on September 23, 2008 at 13:50 in Uncategorized by Valeria Bednarik2 Comments »
Again following yesterday’s post, the pair accomplished the proposed target zone for the intra day movement, and remains well above the 1.8514 level, first support to consider today, followed by the zone around 1.8480/60, 1.8410 and finally 1.8350 not seen for today. Regarding resistances, above 1.8600 the pair will be targeting yesterday’s max at 1.8641 that if broken, again could trigger bullish momentum in the pair, first to the zone around 1.8710 and finally close to the 1.8800 level.
Taking a look at bigger charts, and despite the strength of the bullish movement, the zone around 1.8600/50 seems to be the first key level to watch, followed by the very strong 1.8800 mentioned for the intraday, as it also represents the 50% of the last weeks fall measured from 2.0158 to 1.7446. A confirmation above that level, could mean a continuation first to the zone around 1.8950 and finally to 1.9120, the 61.8% of the mentioned rally that should offer quite a rebound to the downside. Like the Eur, the pair has broken yesterday the 38.2% level at 1.8483, major support and remains above it, after testing it earlier today. As long as this level remain unbroken, chances say to the upside. A Daily candle opening under it, will surely mean further falls at least to the zone around 1.8400 and 1.8280. Further falls don’t seem likely at least for this week.
The Eur/Usd daily and longer term
Posted on September 23, 2008 at 13:10 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
For the shorter term and following yesterday chart, the break above the 200 EMA and the 61.8% gave an impresive rally (not seen for the intraday) to 1.4867 a 4 weeks high for the pair. Right now, prices remains above the 76-3% of the mentioned rally. around 1.4715, first support for today, dollowed by the zone around 1.4650/60 that porved to be strong enough yesterday. A 4 hours candle opening under it, will confirm further falls, as the RSI indicator is showing the pair is quite over bough and momentum seems to be close to a maximun (despite is not yet exhausted) being next targets the zone around 1.4600 and finally 1.4567, the 61.8% level mentioned early. Regarding resistances, form actual zone around 1.4730, only above 1.4762 the pair can recover to the zone around 1.4811, followed by yesterday’s maximum at 1.4867 and finally 1.4905.
Regarding longer term charts, please take a look at this daily one: indicators remain clearly bullish, despite we could see some intraday correction, being the zone around 1.4920 the key level to watch: above this last, the bullish rally could easily continue to the zone around 1.4980 first, and if could manage to break above 1.5000, psychological level, next target will be the zone around 1.5210: Notice the weekly Fibonacci levels from the historical maximum to 1.3881 minimum acomplished this month: the daily candle today has confirmed above the 38.2% and remains unable to break down. The 1.5210 target is in fact the 61.8% of the mentioned rally. Anyway, if the pair manages to close the day under 1.4700, we could see that the 38.2% of the weekly level failed to hold, and further falls, first to the zone around 1.4580 and them to 1.4500 are likely for the next term, yet only under the zone around 1.4400 the pair could recovery bearish strengh not seen for this week.
Tags: eurusd
Starting a new day
Posted on September 23, 2008 at 10:07 in Starting the day by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Hello everybody, hope you are fine. Are you betting against dollar? Hope so. In Spanish we say something like “to try to cover the sun with one hand” and that’s more or less what I was saying yesterday opening: I was reading news just a few minutes before Asia opens and they were pointing to the same: a $700 billion injection to rescue private institutions from bankruptcy, not only will extend the U.S. deficit and sunk already weak growth prospects, but also represents the 5% of the country GDP, yes you read well 5%. However, it’s not easy to forecast where the market will find the right balance. I will take some time to day, to study longer term charts, and I will be adding the post.
Today we have only one new to take care of:
14:00 GMT USD Paulson, Bernanke Testify on Credit Turmoil at Senate Panel
The Usd/Jpy intraday
Posted on September 22, 2008 at 10:13 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The pair remains under pressure, attempting to break lower. with a tough congestion zone between 105.80/90 a continuation under it, will drive the pair to 105.55 another important support that also fall in the 61.8% of the last up leg 103.99/108.02. that level should hold today and offer some rebound. To the upside, resistances will be at 106.25, followed by the zone around 106.45/60 and finally 107.00
Tags: usdjpy
The Gbp/Usd for today
Posted on September 22, 2008 at 9:44 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The pair has break to the upside early this morning, and seems ready to continue, as long as the pair opens next 4hours candle above the 1.8400 zone. Having a first resistance around today’s maximum at 1.8460/70 zone, next resistance will be around 1.8514 zone, above wich the bullish rally could gain momentum and trigger more interesting rallies first, to 1.8550 zone and finally to 1.8604. Supports, under the mentioned 1.8390/1.8400 zone will be at 1.8311, 1.8276 and finally the zone around 1.8228.
A side note: 4 hours charts are forming king on unusual figure, a rounded floor: a confirmation above 1.8514 zone, seems the figure will be completed, and as it is a continuation figure, the target in the longer term will be around 1.9400.
Tags: gbpusd
Euro/Usd for today
Posted on September 22, 2008 at 9:21 in Uncategorized by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The Euro/Usd started the week pretty bullish, and looking at daily charts, indicators are suggesting this is only a beginning and the rally should extend along the week. Quoting right now above the 61.8% of the Fibonacci rally 1.4900/1.3881, 4 hours charts shown the pair has found a top in this time frame, with indicators a bit exhausted, and after rebounding in the 200 EMA around 1.4605 a very good dynamic resistance for the pair and of course, first resistance for today; however, a continuation above it, could take the pair to next resistance zone between 1.4650/60, that should hold for today. To the downside, the pair will find supports at 1.4555, followed by the zone around 1.4520, and finally the Fibonacci level mentioned, around 1.4500.
Starting the day
Posted on September 22, 2008 at 8:58 in Starting the day by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Hi everybody welcome to another week in forex market! As i was expecting, dollar fell by the end of last Friday’s American session and since Asia opening yesterday, as investors questioned whether a $700 billion U.S. rescue plan to bail out banks will help solve the worst credit crisis since the Great Depression. As I told you, just capital is not enough, meaning the underlying problems in the U.S. banking system haven’t gone away yet, and won’t be unless the goverment change the way of dealing with them. Yet, volatility remains high, and sentiment continues ruling markets,(have you heard LA DONNA E MOBILE from Rigoletto?) so I believe short term trades are better than never this days: don´t forget the Euro zone and the rest of the world face the risk of an economic downturn. Meanwhile oil recovered the 100 dollars a barrrel mark, while gold prices remain stable: don’t forget both comodites play against greenback, so better take a look at them once a while. There will be no fundamental news today to take care of, so enough chat and let’s go to technicals. I’ll be back in a few minutes.
Have a great trading day!
S.O.S (Same old situation)
Posted on September 19, 2008 at 13:46 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Early this morning, the Federal Reserve announced its new programs to ease troubled financial markets: extending loans to U.S. banks to help them finance the purchase of asset-backed commercial paper from money market funds that no longer want this debt in their portfolio. Meaning: more capital injections that are surely not a solution but a “time buying” if you know what I mean. The sub prime crisis that started one year ago, needs a solution, do you think capital injections will do something? Meanwhile the recover in oil prices is pushing greenback down despite the U.S. stocks recovery. Volatility continues ruling the market. Don’t get surprised if majors surpass actual week maximums.
Tags: eurusd, gbpusd, usdjpy
Majors for today
Posted on September 19, 2008 at 9:31 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The Eur/Usd is right now @ 1.4200, attempting to break the base of the imminent channel saw yesterday. A 4 hours candle opening under it, will confirm a bearish continuation, with a first support at the congestion zone between 1.4145/60, followed by the zone around 1.4110 and finally the zone around 1.4070. Resistances from actual price will be at 1.4225, followed by 1.4268 and finally the zone around 1.4300.
Gbp/Usd falied to break the 61.8% of the Fibonacci mentioned yesterday, and right now is right in the 38.2% of the mentioned rally, where we have also an ascendant trend line clear in 4 hours charts. A confirmation under 1.7945 could trigger a bearish rally, with next supports at 1.7906 and finally 1.7845. Resistances from actual price, will be the zone around 1.8010, followed by 1.8064 and finally the zone around 1.8105, 50% of the mentioned rally.
The Usd/Jpy is rising after the stocks rescue, almost covering the gap of the begging of the week. bullish yet quite exhausted in that direction, the pair could continue above today’s maximum, to the zone around 108.16, and even to 108.52 yet not seen for today. Rebounding in the 4 hs 200 EMA, a downside correction will find supports at the tough zone around 107.00, followed by 106.65 and finally the zone around 106.20
Good trades for all!
Tags: eurusd, gbpusd, usdjpy
To the rescue
Posted on September 19, 2008 at 8:52 in Starting the day by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Hi everybody, how are you? after hitting a two weeks low against European currencies, market continues highly volatile and greenback is making big progress all across the board, as yesterday The Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of Canada and the Swiss National Bank said they were taking action to alleviate pressures in the U.S. dollar funding markets; besides,U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson had discussed a government plan to fix the troubled financial sector by establishing an entity to handle bad debt, modeled on the Resolution Trust Corporation of the late 80s which was set up to resolve the Savings and Loans crisis. At this point, saying that sentiment is driving the market, sounds like a joke: is clear that major forces are in fact on charge; the dollar fall these last days, on financial turmoil and stocks drop, triggered a bullish rally against it, and seems that authorities don’t want to come back to were they where: expensive currencies, inflation pressures, unemployment, negative readings in both internal and external sales, etc. And by authorities, I mean the rest of the world ones: is clear that a stronger dollar, (let’s not forget a cheaper oil) will be in a world wide positive perspective. I don’t expect greenback to continue strengthening much further, yet seems to be very close to it’s equilibrium point at least against European currencies, unless until next crisis 
There will not be more fundamental news today, but some action could be triggered by the U.S. opening 9:30 East Time.
I’ll be back in a few minutes with today’s technicals.
« Newer posts – Older posts »
Posted on September 18, 2008 at 9:59 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The pair remains under pressure, and chances continue favoring the downside, with a first support zone around 104.00/10 zone, followed by this month minimum at 103.53: any movement under it will mean a downside continuation, with next support @103.20. Only above the 104.90/105.05 zone we could see some upside pressure, first to 105.35 and finally to the tough zone around 105.55.
Maybe a side note to all the technicals in all pairs: while we can see clearly in the chart indicators pointing to the upside and candles to the downside, and at least in my charts, in 5 minutes we have a new 4 hs candle opening, and surely indicators will turn after this last one price action; besides, and for me, there is not much to discuss about dollar weakness, so, remember to open mind and eyes, and keep a larger view on things.
Good trading for all!
Tags: usdjpy
The Gbp/Usd in the short term
Posted on September 18, 2008 at 9:35 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Clearly bullish in daily charts, 4 hours one seem a bit exhausted, after the pair rebounds in the 61.8% of the last daily down leg from 18799/1.7446. Quoting right now around 1.8180, there is not much of a definition here: to the downside, first interesting support will be around 1.8130, followed by the zone around 1.8090 and finally 1.8050. Above 1.8220, the pair could continue to today’s maximum, and the Fibonacci @ 1.8264 above which, 1.8315 will be next target.
Tags: gbpusd
The Eur/Usd for today
Posted on September 18, 2008 at 9:20 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The pair has broken above the 1.4400 and seems ready to continue: having a first resistance zone around 1.4428/35 above this last, the pair has a clear way to next congestion zone around 1.4471; moving in a 4 hours ascendant channel, a confirmation above that last zone, let’s say at 1.4486, the pair could easily continue to 1.4510 zone and finally 1.4558, zone that must break before attempting to test the roof of the channel, @ 1.4675. Supports from here will be the zone around 1.4382, followed by 1.4350 and finally 1.4330.
Tags: eurusd
What now?
Posted on September 18, 2008 at 9:00 in Starting the day by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Hello everybody, hope you are fine. Greenback continues losing ground against major rivals, on deeper worries over the American financial system and overall economy; if you saw yesterday’s gold price action, you can understand why: investors made it run almost an 11%, while U.S. stocks dropped nearly 450 points, the second worst drop in a year, preceded by Tuesday first one. All these factors are just telling us how hurt is the American economy, and that many investors are “regretting” the so fast and furious betting on dollar of the last two months. I surely don’t mean Euro will return to 1,60 or Pound to 2.11, yet a larger correction seems to be under way. Regarding fundamentals for today; the UK Retail Sales published just now has surprised to the upside, helping GBP to hold close to it’s daily maximum against major rivals, despite the general weakness of the currency; in the wills battle, seems GBP is overdoing Dollar for now. For the rest of the day, this are the most relevant news, East Time, in the U.S.:
8:30 Initial Claims 09/13 (Expected 440K Previous 445K)
10:00 Leading Indicators Aug (Expected -0.2% Previous -0.7%)
10:00 Philadelphia Fed Sep (Expected -10.0 Previous -12.7)
Usd/Jpy for today
Posted on September 17, 2008 at 11:50 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The pair is giving signs of exhaustion to the upside, after yesterday’s rally, although has an interesting support in the zone around 105.55. A correction could extend to the zone around 105.23 and finally to 104.84, not seen likely today. To the upside, only above 106.03 we could see a continuation in that direction, first to the zone around 106.32 and finally to 106.60/70.
Tags: usdjpy
Eur/Usd and Gbp/Usd for today
Posted on September 17, 2008 at 11:33 in Uncategorized by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The Eur/Usd looks slightly bullish in 4 hours charts, although divergences with technical indicators, and well contained in last days range; quoting around 1.4220, the pair has a first resistance @ 1.4236 followed by the zone around 1.4280. Above this last, the pair will confirm a bullish continuation at least to the zone @ 1.4330, tops for today. Regarding supports, 1.4178 will be the first to consider, followed by the dynamic one, an ascendant trend line now around 1.4118 that should offer a quick a profitable rebound if reached.
As said before, Gbp remains under pressure and bearish in 4 hours charts, probably at the beginning of a descendant channel: only above 1.7895 we could see the pair moving to the upside and attempting to test the roof of the channel @ 1.7960; seems unlikely the price pass above it yet in that case, next target will be at 1.8030, after completing the pullback to the broken line. Supports from here will be the zone around 1.7825, 1.7785 and finally 1.7755.
Tags: eurusd, gbpusd
At the begining
Posted on September 17, 2008 at 11:02 in Starting the day by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Hello everybody, hope you are fine. The Asian session didn’t change much last view, after FOMC decision: dollar remains under pressure against most rivals, (except Aud and Japanese Yen), but mostly in range, consolidating after the next clear trend leg. Good to notice, Gbp is also in trouble on renewed fears of the health of the U.K.’s largest mortgage lender, HBOS whose shares plummeted, wiping out earlier gains against the dollar. Australian dollar is the third weak currency I can mention, as risk aversion make investors flee away form high yielding currencies. Anyway, for the rest of the day, we have only two news to take care of in the U.S. (detail in east time):
08:30 Building Permits for August (Expected 930K Previous 937K) and Housing Starts (Expected 950K Previous 965K)
10:35 Crude Inventories 09/13 (Previous -5.9)
I’ll be back in a few minutes with the technicals perspectives for today.
After the FOMC
Posted on September 16, 2008 at 19:59 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Finally, the FOMC leaved rates unchanged, and despite some initial spikes, more majors are quite close to were they were previous to the release. In fact there was no signal of further rate cuts anytime soon, and ignoring actual markets turmoil, they stated “The downside risks to growth and the upside risks to inflation are both of significant concern to the Committee”. Seems rate movements are not enough to control actual crisis and authorities had understood so. So what’s next in Forx market? Well to be honest I keep on believing that dollar strength was due to counterparts weakness, so the name of the game will be to bet on the less weak currency (mostly like we vote our government here, not the best one, but the “less worse” ). Anyway, is clear that the crisis in the States is very very far form over, while the economic situation in the rest of the world was lately put in doubt, yet remains in much better shape. Both technically and fundamental perspective suggest more dollar loses for the rest of the week.
Previously posted levels are quite valid for today and tomorrow: only under 1.4080 zone we could see the Euro fall, and 1.7785 area for GBP. An exception is my be loved Japanese Yen that actually accomplished perfectly the suggested upside levels, and seems ready for more.
Anyway, the day is almost over. Hope you have enjoy the post, the live coverage, and most of all, took some advantage of the market!
See you tomorrow.
Fed Special Coverage Transcript
Posted on September 16, 2008 at 19:31 in Uncategorized by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Tags: fed
Before the FOMC
Posted on September 16, 2008 at 17:35 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria Bednarik2 Comments »
Majors remain losing ground after a good and unexpected rebound in the U.S. Stock markets. However, things can change if the FOMC decides to change actual rates (seems unlikely in fact, but you know) anyway, these are the lelels to watch for a break trough in either direction, if rates are in fact changed:
Eur/Usd : Under 1.4105, to 1.4082 first and 1.4065. Above 1.4178, first to 1.4220 zone and then to 1.4249
Gbb/Usd: Under 1.7820 to 1.7786 and then to 1.7755. Above 1.7895 to 1.7925 and then to 1.7970
Usd/Jpy: Under 104.84 to 104.55 and 104.20 area, and above 105.60 to 106.00
I will be covering the FOMC decision live! at Fxstreet.com home page.
See you there!
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