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发表于 2009-4-7 20:26
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Posted on July 10, 2008 at 15:00 in Analysis by James ChenNo Comments »
 (Please click on the accompanying chart to enlarge.) As noted yesterday on this blog, the short-term upmove in the GBP/USD (the daily chart of which is shown) did in fact stop abruptly at the expected resistance imposed by the bottom of the short-term parallel uptrend channel. After the turn at resistance, price is now heading once again towards the support imposed by the long-term downtrend line. The pair is currently in a continuing consolidation, but any breakdown of the long-term downtrend support should provide a potential opportunity targeting the 1.9350 region.
- James
James Chen is the Chief Technical Analyst at FX Solutions, a leading Forex broker. He is also a registered Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) and a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) Level 3 candidate. At FX Solutions, Mr. Chen writes daily currency analysis, conducts forex trading seminars, and has authored numerous articles on currency trading and technical analysis for major financial publications. His upcoming book, Essentials of Foreign Exchange Trading (John Wiley & Sons), will be released in early 2009.
Forex Swing Trading Webinar
Posted on July 10, 2008 at 14:33 in Announcements by James ChenNo Comments »
Just wanted to give everyone a quick heads up. I know it’s a bit early to be talking about it as it will be held next week, but I wanted to let all those interested know ahead of time. I will be conducting an open FXstreet webinar on Forex swing trading. It will be held on Wednesday, July 16th at 14:00 GMT. In this webinar, I will discuss how I evaluate high-probability swing trading setups, including criteria, entries, exits and risk management. Here is the link for more information:
http://www.fxstreet.com/live/sessions/session.aspx?id=b4f993e2-6c88-4d4b-b720-6de47d593061
If you would like more details on how to attend webinars at FXstreet.com, please go to:
http://www.fxstreet.com/forum/showthread.php?t=129
Hope to see everyone there!
- James
James Chen is the Chief Technical Analyst at FX Solutions, a leading Forex broker. He is also a registered Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) and a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) Level 3 candidate. At FX Solutions, Mr. Chen writes daily currency analysis, conducts forex trading seminars, and has authored numerous articles on currency trading and technical analysis for major financial publications. His upcoming book, Essentials of Foreign Exchange Trading (John Wiley & Sons), will be released in early 2009.
AUD/USD Wednesday Evening (NY) Video Update
Posted on July 10, 2008 at 0:49 in Analysis by James ChenNo Comments »
EUR/USD Wednesday Noon (NY) Update
Posted on July 9, 2008 at 17:49 in Analysis by James Chen4 Comments »
 (Please click on the accompanying chart to enlarge.) As promised, here is the update on the EUR/USD pair (the daily chart of which is shown). After breakdown of the short-term uptrend support line yesterday, price moved back up today to hit the underside of this line once again, but this time as resistance. In the process, price action has formed what looks like a small inverted pennant consolidation pattern, which hints at a possible impending downward continuation. At the same time, however, price has been hugging the top of the pennant, pushing towards a break to the upside. Today’s price action will tell us whether this resistance will hold, in which case we might prepare ourselves for a subsequent drop.
- James
James Chen is the Chief Technical Analyst at FX Solutions, a leading Forex broker. He is also a registered Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) and a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) Level 3 candidate. At FX Solutions, Mr. Chen writes daily currency analysis, conducts forex trading seminars, and has authored numerous articles on currency trading and technical analysis for major financial publications. His upcoming book, Essentials of Foreign Exchange Trading (John Wiley & Sons), will be released in early 2009.
GBP/USD Wednesday Morning (NY) Update
Posted on July 9, 2008 at 14:58 in Analysis by James ChenNo Comments »
 (Please click on the accompanying chart to enlarge.) For now, long-term downtrend support extending from the multi-decade highs on the GBP/USD daily chart, as shown, has held steady. Any continued momentum upwards on a short-term basis should meet resistance at the bottom of the short-term uptrend channel from whence it broke just a couple of days ago. Further resistance on a medium-term basis resides around the key 2.0000 level. Any clean breakdown of the long-term uptrend support line, on the other hand, would be a significant technical event, and would target strong support around the 1.9350 region.
- James
James Chen is the Chief Technical Analyst at FX Solutions, a leading Forex broker. He is also a registered Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) and a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) Level 3 candidate. At FX Solutions, Mr. Chen writes daily currency analysis, conducts forex trading seminars, and has authored numerous articles on currency trading and technical analysis for major financial publications. His upcoming book, Essentials of Foreign Exchange Trading (John Wiley & Sons), will be released in early 2009.
Clean and Simple
Posted on July 9, 2008 at 5:27 in Education by James ChenNo Comments »
People often ask me why I don’t add a ton of indicators and other studies onto my charts. Other people ask me why I don’t put up elaborate chart drawings and notations (like Elliott Wave) or layers of price levels (like pivot points). Although I respect all of these tools and methodologies, the simple answer is that I don’t like a lot of clutter on my charts. The charts that I create are usually clean and simple for a reason - I truly believe that price action is revealed best when clutter is kept to a minimum. Although I have become well-versed with most technical methodologies in common use today, including the more complex disciplines, I am still of the firm belief that the basics are most often the best. For this reason, I tend to stick to a few tried-and-true tools of the trade. In approximate order of importance for me, they are:
- Visually-derived horizontal (static) support/resistance lines
- Diagonal (dynamic) support/resistance trendlines
- Parallel trend channels
- Multi-bar chart patterns (e.g., flags/pennants, triangles, doubles/triples, head-and-shoulders, rectangles, wedges, etc.)
- Single-bar chart formations (e.g., “pin” bars AKA hammers and shooting stars, etc.)
- Oscillator confirmations of turns and pullbacks (usually Stochastics)
- Moving averages for trend indications
- Fibonacci retracements for watched levels
- ATR for volatility
- ADX for trend strength
But usually, you will find only a few of the above elements on my charts at any given time. My trading/analytical style conforms most closely with swing trading (as I have been talking about recently on this blog) where I aim to take advantage of short- to medium-term swings in the market, during both trends and trading ranges. When making trading decisions, I certainly look for confirmations and confluences from different tools, but too many tools at one time have a tendency to contribute to “paralysis by analysis.”
That’s just my view on the subject. Thanks for reading!
- James
James Chen is the Chief Technical Analyst at FX Solutions, a leading Forex broker. He is also a registered Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) and a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) Level 3 candidate. At FX Solutions, Mr. Chen writes daily currency analysis, conducts forex trading seminars, and has authored numerous articles on currency trading and technical analysis for major financial publications. His upcoming book, Essentials of Foreign Exchange Trading (John Wiley & Sons), will be released in early 2009.
EUR/USD Tuesday Evening (NY) Video Update
Posted on July 9, 2008 at 4:07 in Analysis by James ChenNo Comments »
EUR/GBP Tuesday Noon (NY) Update
Posted on July 8, 2008 at 17:51 in Analysis by James ChenNo Comments »
 (Please click on the accompanying chart to enlarge.) This is not of great urgency - just a very well-defined triangle pattern on the EUR/GBP daily chart, as shown. Watch this pair for an eventual breakout. For details, please check out the Chart of the Day by clicking here.
- James
James Chen is the Chief Technical Analyst at FX Solutions, a leading Forex broker. He is also a registered Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) and a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) Level 3 candidate. At FX Solutions, Mr. Chen writes daily currency analysis, conducts forex trading seminars, and has authored numerous articles on currency trading and technical analysis for major financial publications. His upcoming book, Essentials of Foreign Exchange Trading (John Wiley & Sons), will be released in early 2009.
EUR/USD Tuesday Morning (NY) Update
Posted on July 8, 2008 at 15:51 in Analysis by James ChenNo Comments »
 (Please click on the accompanying chart to enlarge.) After the premature/false breakdown yesterday of the short-term uptrend support line, price on the EUR/USD daily chart, as shown, has made yet another tentative breakdown today. Whether this turns out to be a true break remains to be seen within the next couple of days. In the event of continued downward momentum, as might be expected, the next support to the downside resides around the 1.5580 region, a significant previous support/resistance level.
- James
James Chen is the Chief Technical Analyst at FX Solutions, a leading Forex broker. He is also a registered Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) and a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) Level 3 candidate. At FX Solutions, Mr. Chen writes daily currency analysis, conducts forex trading seminars, and has authored numerous articles on currency trading and technical analysis for major financial publications. His upcoming book, Essentials of Foreign Exchange Trading (John Wiley & Sons), will be released in early 2009.
Swing Trading 2
Posted on July 8, 2008 at 15:25 in Education by James ChenNo Comments »
This is a follow-up to my original post on swing trading that I posted over this past weekend (please click here for the original post). I received an interesting comment from a blog reader, and I wanted to post my response here because it is such an important and timely subject. David writes:
“Dear James,
This is an interesting perspective which I guess could be applied with some variation to commodity trading and particularly to movements observed when we trade crude oil.
I would be interested to know your thoughts on taking a slightly longer term perspective and just using simple daily moving averages, say combined 15 and 25 days, to capture the trends.
If we accept we get in late and also exit early from a clear trend, is this not preferable to trying to get in on the swing, and possibly make the wrong call?”
And here is my response - Great question. Yes, getting in on trends is definitely the way to go. The way I apply swing trading in the Forex market is exactly in that manner. During ranging conditions, I will play the directionless turns, especially if the range is wide. But when there is a clear, identifiable trend, I will trade pullbacks in the direction of the trend. This is also a form of trading the swings, or turns. So swing trading is extremely adaptable to most market conditions, both ranging and trending. I use a highly disciplined risk management strategy, which helps a lot when the market decides to do an “about-face” right after a clear turn. With swing trading, applying good risk management controls is very straightforward - just get out as soon as you know you’re wrong and you realize that the reasons for entering the trade are no longer valid. This is made very clear in the vast majority of potential swing trades.
By the way, I will be doing a webinar here on FXstreet exactly on this subject. This should be next week or so. I will keep everyone updated on this upcoming webinar via this blog. Thanks!
- James
James Chen is the Chief Technical Analyst at FX Solutions, a leading Forex broker. He is also a registered Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) and a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) Level 3 candidate. At FX Solutions, Mr. Chen writes daily currency analysis, conducts forex trading seminars, and has authored numerous articles on currency trading and technical analysis for major financial publications. His upcoming book, Essentials of Foreign Exchange Trading (John Wiley & Sons), will be released in early 2009.
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