一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

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Where to now for the USD versus other majorsSunday, September 21, 2008



We are certainly in tumultuous times in all markets at present. I would suggest this condition will continue for some time. Weeks months or even years. We are witnessing the most volatile period in financial markets in our lifetime. This allows for greater swings in markets, producing many more opportunities than normal while also increasing the risk. In times like this more than any other, use good sound money management and only expose a very small margin of your account at one time. 2% or less in a very good rule.

This week, I present the EUR/USD and GBP/USD in 4 hour chart frames. This allows for a better view of the current patterns. Both are in a range that when broken should produce a very strong move.




The USD/CAD this week has appeared to have topped medium term. Now attacking it's monthly support, a break might produce a revisit of Par (1.0000) or lower. Watch that barrier at $1.0416


The EUR/JPY is of course reacting to the risk reduction with the Fed. Bail-out. A move up is expected. What I would be watching for however is a sudden reversal at the Carry-Trade does not like these very volatile conditions and when things turn again we may see a further very violent unwinding.


Cheers and good trading,
Pierre

Posted by Pierre Charlebois in FX Weekly Report at 09:33


Counter-Trend Appears Very LikelySunday, September 14, 2008



It looks like Thursday was the start of a long overdue counter-trend rally in the dollar pairs with Friday being the break-out day. There is always the chance of a new low or sudden re-tracement, In fact I would expect a re-tracement of Friday's move at minimum, however I believe the dollar rally is over for a few weeks. Look for a weakening dollar for a while.

Looking at how strong the Dollar rally has been we should expect equal volatility at times in the counter-trend.





Posted by Pierre Charlebois in FX Weekly Report at 19:16

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Trader Sentiment is changing - Could this be an important turning point?Sunday, September 7, 2008



I'm going to keep it short and sweet this week and just say that if this isn't an important turning point on most pairs we are very close. Market sentiment is extreme and we should now see a strong reversal.
See this article for market sentiment: http://www.dailyfx.com/story/charting_center/futures_positioning_cot_report/Euro_Close_to_a_Bottom_1220383803951.html
Cheers
Pierre





Posted by Pierre Charlebois in FX Weekly Report at 19:13


Where is the bottom on the EUR/USD?Tuesday, September 2, 2008




Indeed it is becoming quite difficult to believe that a bottom even exists on this pair. However with the recent moves appearing choppy this is an indication that the trend is coming to an end. The most likely targets are 1.4435 or 1.4300. From an Elliott Wave perspective this also fits nicely as it shows the trend completing its series of 5 waves down turning at the previous larger wave 4.

I dare say that when a bottom forms and a re-tracement/reversal takes place the counter trend will be swift and strong so be prepared to change your bias when this happens.

Remember to be patient here and not to jump the gun on a buy, as it may take the balance of the week or even into next week before the tied turns.
Cheers
Pierre

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Where will the USD Rally End?Monday, August 25, 2008



The current rally for the USD had been in some cases record setting. So turning trader sentiment does not happen easily but sometimes may happens suddenly.
None of the current major pairs appear to be at important technical junctures so I am hesitant to say bottoms could form here. So for the time being it's most important to be patient and wait for clear indications counter-trends have resumed. I have made reference to where support/resistance lie in the event the USD rallies further.
Good trading,
Pierre

If the EURUSD breaks below 1.4630, then support lies around 1.45 - a break above 1.49 signals upside potential.

The GBPUSD's support lies in the 1.85 area. The levels to watch here are 1.84 and 1.8780.

The USDCAD is in a battle between trading with Oil or trading with it's economic indicators being tied to the US. Again, until the picture clears up waiting to trade the break-our is likely the best trade.

Here to as the EURJPY we have reasonable levels to use as break out points. Such as 1.60 to the downside and 1.6350 to the upside.

Posted by Pierre Charlebois in FX Weekly Report at 07:34


Counter Trend Moves are DueTuesday, August 19, 2008



The USD has been strengthening unchallenged now for several weeks. It appears that bottoms and tops are forming on most pairs and this should now give way to counter-trend moves.
Expect some sort of capitulation to take place and wait for trend-line breaks or good candle reversal patterns before take any positions. Waiting for a reversals to be apparent should then yield good trading opportunities.
Good trading,
Pierre




Posted by Pierre Charlebois in FX Weekly Report at 07:57

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USD Showing Signs of Being Highly Overbought - But move may not yet be overSunday, August 10, 2008



The charts shown here show ranges that are likely over coming weeks.






There may very well be some new highs/lows registered this week however I would expect the overall sentiment to start shifting later this week and into the next month or so. That will then give way to additional USD strength.
We saw a tremendous sell-off of every major currency against the USD these last two weeks. Candlestick patterns should now be the focus at critical Trend-lines and Support and Resistance. Most currency pairs will fall into consolidation or reversal patterns over the next few weeks. Remain aware that once corrections start, they may be somewhat volatile matching in opposite direction some of the previous moves in the market.
So look for continuations that should then give way to consolidations later this week or starting next.
Cheers and good trading.
Pierre

Posted by Pierre Charlebois in FX Weekly Report at 10:55

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Still Following AUD/USD and EUR/USDSunday, August 3, 2008



Both the EUR and AUD appear to have put in long term tops and will now follow a Bearish path overall for the next few months.


Having said that what I expect this week is to see consolidation and retracement takes place to offset the moves down. However on both pairs I expect a failed attempt at a new top and for a turn down to resume after some correction.
Cheers
Pierre

Posted by Pierre Charlebois in FX Weekly Report at 18:21


Did the AUD/USD Top Yet?Sunday, July 27, 2008




The AUD/USD has dropped considerably this week and now a correction or reversal is coming due of the recent move down.  As of writing, the current level of 0.9550 is quite an important pivotal point.
A move much below 0.9500 could target the opposite side of the long term channel (around 0.8500) in place for several years, whereas a move back up above 0.9750 would likely result in an attempt at 1.00.
Be prepared for either the break back up or the breach of the lower trend line for a continued fall. This week will give us a longer term direction.
good trading,
Pierre

Posted by Pierre Charlebois in FX Weekly Report at 15:30


AUD/USD still in topping process - EUR/USD likely to put in one more topMonday, July 21, 2008



I was talking to Zoltan Vass (our Chief Economic Strategist) earlier this week and we were discussing how it appears we are on the verge of some very volatile activity. Looking at what the JPY pairs did this week really confirmed our expectations.

Now let me add to this that I think the old adage of 'We Ain't Seen Nothing Yet' is about to be confirmed. I can't say for certain it will be this coming week, but I am getting very organized to trade it if it is.

AUD/USD

I have been saying for weeks we should see one more push to the upside and then a reversal that; as Kevin O'Leary of BNN says 'Comes Down Without Hitting the Sides'. The price action on the chart shows how there has been a new top and now somewhat of a correction that has staled. I would surmise that there will still be one more move higher before the larger decline as the reversal was not sharp enough to really announce a top in place.

EUR/USD

Although not visibly in an ending diagonal, but going on almost the same premise, that because we have not rejected the new recent high in a very dramatic fashion we are likely still in the topping process and should see another 100 to 400 pip move higher to form a blow-off top. Remember what happened to the USD/CAD back in November when it dipped all the way down to .9000, the reversal from there was 1000 pips in just a few days.  

PS, look at your charts and see what the volatility was like in July and August of last year.

Pierre

Posted by Pierre Charlebois in FX Weekly Report at 09:36

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The EUR/ USD gives more surprises + Watching for a blow-off top on the AUD/USDSunday, July 13, 2008



EUR/USD

Last week's rejection of 1.5912 lasted for a few days however after Friday's move above that price point we have to assume a new high above 1.6020 is possible. What is recommended here in trading a currency that is this volatile is to actually have more patients and enter only when absolutely all your conditions for a  trade have been met. In short, when things are this crazy one needs even more patients.

AUD/USD

Last week I wrote about this pair looking to make one last high before a potentially very strong reversal. We have approached that tipping point now. We should see a little more up-side before the blow-off top appears. (100 to 200 pips). If we see a strong reversal pattern in this current price range, we need to see this as a signal that a top may very well be in place. So be patient but vigilant on this pair as the risk/reward is very attractive.
Cheers and have a good trading week.
Pierre

Posted by Pierre Charlebois in FX Weekly Report at 22:02


Is there a top in place on the EUR/USD? What of the AUD/USDFriday, July 4, 2008



EUR/USD

As one of my mentors ‘Zoltan Vass’ would say; Believe what you see!
Once again we have seen another volatile reaction after important economic news. And this was the strongest reaction so far. It is also important to note (as Zoltan pointed out to me) that this reaction is quite a contrary move to the news that preceded such a strong rejection.
How to trade this
For now it is best to look for selling opportunities. Thursday’s move produced a strong Engulfing Bearish candle and all other such candles have seen continuations after such moves. What is most likely here is a three wave move back up and then a continued drop down. It will be after the expected second drop down that caution is advised. For now I see the initial target to breach as 1.5555 which is the .618 re-tracement of this most recent move up.

AUD/USD

Somebody should tell the AUD/USD traders that the party is almost over!
Of all the majors trading against the USD the AUD seems to partying on a little late. What appears to be happening here is the final throws of an ending diagonal. We should see one more final wave up targeting the upper trend-line. I can’t accurately predict the top or whether we will strike the upper line but I can suggest that when the final top is in place there will be no subtlety to the reversal. Watch this pair closely over the coming week(s).
How to trade this
Look for a reversal Candlestick pattern in the reversal zone between the two top trend-lines. Remember there will be no subtlety to the reversal so the signal should be strong.
Good trading and happy Canada Day and 4th of July!
Pierre

Posted by Pierre Charlebois in FX Weekly Report at 20:11


How to trade the USD/CAD this weekFriday, June 27, 2008




If we look at the USD/CAD from Friday we can see there had been a very big shift in sentiment and a dramatic turn has taken place. There is a tweezer bottom/engulfing candle on the 4 hour chart. So how do we trade this now. Two things are highly probable.
1. We will see a retrace of something in the neighbourhood of 50% of the first leg up (maybe even .618 as this is common)
2. And the dramatics of the reversal have likely established at least a short term low.
So an entry point around 1.0090 allows for a stop of 55 pips as we will set our stop at the turning point below at 1.0045. (Remember the total at risk here must be less than 1% of your trading account for good money management), and we will set a limit of 2 times the value of the stop which is 1.0200. This needs to be done in order to get a return on the trade that is greater than the risk. This is proper money management. If we go into profit of greater than 150% of the risk you can move you stop to break even and set your target at a technical level beyond the 200% goal.
Remember, if we are wrong we have managed our risk well and need to reward ourselves for a stop well respected. We have to remain clear on the fact that we traded the most likely outcome of the engulfing candle. We need to be able to do this again the next time this pattern shows up.
Good trading.

Posted by Pierre Charlebois in FX Weekly Report at 13:23


EUR/USD - The range continues. What of the GBP/USDSaturday, June 21, 2008



   
Last week I wrote about important levels on the EUR/USD. Not so much about the direction it would go but what the likely targets or outcomes could be if we hit certain levels. Let’s examine what is happening now.
There are two very important levels now on this pair. The recent high at 1.6018 and the recent low just following the high dropping to 1.5282. We are still stuck in the range between those two levels and it is likely we will spend yet another week in that range. Let’s examine this further.
The current triangle scenario is still alive and the way we ended last week may be how we continue through the coming week. So a move up is most likely.
The current target then, is the top of the triangle. If we break though there then the next target will be the record high at 1.6018. I would view any move above that level as limited and that the risk would then change to the downside for a larger correction.
Remember I always try to focus on where the best places are to take risk. Frankly being in the middle of the range is not really the place (At least not for swing trading) However if you really feel you need to trade this than the current risk (for stop) is likely best placed at Friday’s opening price. If you’re momentum or day trading I would expect the best break-out opportunities for now would be to the upside.
Currently for swing trading, I’m on the sidelines until we re-visit either 1.6018 or 1.5282. Waiting for a break or turn at either one of these levels is definitely going to be where reward outstrips risk by a large margin.
Summary and technical levels to watch:
Middle of range - Not a great risk reward for swing trading
Top of triangle trend-line
1.6018 for failure or break and reversal
1.5283 for a break below
These levels will all come into play over the next few days or weeks. Mark them well on your charts as they will continue to be important throughout the next 3 to 24 weeks or more.
What of the GBP/USD?
Ah… now here we are poised to break-out of a range or turn hard around. The current descending trend-line has contained the price action for over 6 months. So this level is very important.
Technically speaking the two levels to watch here are:
The top descending trend-line current price at: 1.9761
And the bottom barrier at 1.9400
Join me on Sunday night at 6:15PDT in our OTR (Online Training Room) this Sunday night for a detailed live interactive review of these two currency pairs
Until then, good trading,
Pierre

Posted by Pierre Charlebois in FX Weekly Report at 10:03

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EUR/USD at critical levelFriday, June 13, 2008




This week I maintain the focus on the EUR/USD as we are witnessing a very important level being approached as well as an ever increasing amount of news and rhetoric regarding the value of the Euro versus the USD, especially from Trichet and Bernanke (the central bankers from the EURO Zone and the US).
Both are giving speeches arguing that their respective currencies should be strong so this is sending mixed messages to the market. So consider this: Trichet has been arguing and posturing on his ‘Hawkish’ side for a very long time. For Bernanke it’s a relatively new stance. The G8 Summit it this weekend and there is little doubt the value of oil, the USD, inflation and how this may effect the overall world economy is on the docket. Somebody said it quite well earlyer this week that Trichet may whish he could take a 'Mulligan' on his comments about raising the Euro interest rate in July. Does this mean an immediate downside move is coming? Well… not necessarily what it does mean is that traders are going to continue to be quite reactionary as news comes out from both sides of the Atlantic. Swinging in favour of who made the most ‘Hawkish’ statement last.
Technically we are presented with a very good ‘line-in-the-sand’ that should provide a reasonable place for traders to go Bearish or Bullish next week. On the chart I’ve pointed out where this happens and we are very close to this level at market close on Friday. The statements out of the G8 this weekend will very likely send the pair on a strong move one side or the other Sunday, Monday or Tuesday.
What to watch:

• The most important trend-lines over the last month have been the apparent developing triangle that is now in jeopardy of failing, falling below the 1.5283 barrier which will negate the Triangle theory and open the door to the potential fall to the previous area of resistance around 1.5000 (which in Elliott Wave Theory is also the most probable outcome landing in the previous wave 4 area of one lesser degree).
• A rejection and strong move up from Friday’s low would in turn confirm the Triangle and send the pair up above the opposite trend-line for a re-visit of the record highs. The 100 day moving average would be a good defining line to use for support once above.
• If we get a break down, copy the upper trend-line and move to the bottom of the pattern. This will serve as the first target of the move down. Then in week or two if we break below it; this will serve to provide us an opportunity for a new buy position.
• If the break is up, I would expect a re-test of 1.6020 before finally reversing longer term.

So remember the price point of 1.5283 – It will undoubtedly be an important level next week and also when we revisit this area again in the near future.
Good Trading,
Pierre

Posted by Pierre Charlebois in FX Weekly Report at 17:33


EUR/USD - Range Trade Opportunity - Take IIFriday, June 6, 2008




I think it's worth spending a little more time on the EUR/USD this week as last week I discussed how the best opportunity on the EUR/USD would be to look for reversal candles within a developing range. I had said that looking for reversal candles on the daily chart would quite possibly give us some very good opportunity for swing and position trades. If you look at the chart provided we were indeed given such an opportunity. This came right at the 100 Day Simple Moving Average in fact, which has been supporting the EUR/USD since March 2006.
If we look at the shape of what is developing there is a potential for a triangle to be forming. This is the most common pattern in this position following a long move up. In Elliott Wave terms; this would be a Wave 4 Triangle pattern preceding the 'Terminal Thrusts'. If this is the case we should now see a reversal at or near the current levels.
However... as a technical trader I have to look at all the possibilities and decide what is the highest 'Probability'. In this case the move up so strong and with only a minor correction it is possible that the target for the current move sits around 1.60 again. So I don't just buy into what I believe is most likely. Just like last week, we need to see confirmation from another source.
How To Trade This... At the risk of sounding repetitive, I will once again say we need to see a good reversal candle at or near a trend-line. As the move up was so dramatic so too should the reversal pattern be if it does indeed show up here in the very near future.
Failing that, I would expect a return to near or just above the all-time high and look for a good selling opportunity when we are back in that range around the 1.60 mark.
At this stage I find myself repeating a saying I heard years ago when I started trading: I would rather not be in a trade then in a bad one.
Good Trading
Pierre Charlebois

Posted by Pierre Charlebois in FX Weekly Report at 15:22


EUR/USD - Range Trade OpportunityFriday, May 30, 2008



We have been fortunate to have witnessed one of the most active periods in currency trading in the last 30 years. In fact I don't think it's quite over yet. Having said that however, we are currently in  a period of consolidation between the EUR and USD. Why do Believe that? And what can we do about it?
I am a technical trader and I study several disciplines with the main focus on Candlesticks and Elliot Wave . I use Elliott Wave for the larger general perspective and Candlesticks for entry and exit points where overbought and oversold conditions appear.
So here is my assessment and why I think range trading is in order.
We recently witnessed an Ending Diagonal on the EUR/USD when it peaked at 1.60. What is most common is that these diagonals form at the top of larger wave 3's from an Elliot Wave perspective. What should follow is a large wave 4 that is corrective, complex and usually quite time consuming.
So I'm expecting a choppy move in a descending channel or a triangle to form (which is the most common shape for a  wave 4). Either way it should be large and burn a lot of time and oscillate up and down creating a range.

To trade this; look for good candle reversal patterns at potential trend-line support and resistance. We saw this type of action on the wave 4 of a lesser degree two months ago and I would expect this next consolidation to last as long or longer. We were also witness to very distinctive candlestick reversal patterns.
There is a slight possibility that in this correction we make a slight new high, however following an Ending Diagonal the correction does not usually bounce that high. What should take place is a completion of the correction below current levels then in a few weeks (months maybe) we should see another attempt at the high for a double top.
Good Trading
Pierre Charlebois

Posted by Pierre Charlebois in FX Weekly Report at 11:36


EUR/USD – Long or Short… That is the questionFriday, May 23, 2008



Each week I try to focus on a high probability set-up on the daily charts. Over the last four weeks or so there have been some great opportunities however the waters are now becoming somewhat muddy. The opportunities are not clear and we seem to be at crossroads on many currencies. So let’s look at the EUR/USD to see if we should buy or sell.
Just one month ago we saw the EUR/USD terminate an Ending Diagonal and drop significantly from its high of 1.6020. Since this time we dropped to 1.5283 and we are now back to straddle the retrace point of .618% around 1.5750.
What clues and/or cues can we take from this?
Well, firstly I always look for trend direction changes when I realize we have seen roughly a month since the last dramatic pattern change. WHY? Because we are now just a few days off of the 34 day Fibonacci time block. Indeed, for those of you that think it’s hogwash to count days between swing highs and lows then don’t bother reading the rest of my article. For those of you that are looking for places where potential turns or patterns will occur, then consider the following.
The chart I’ve posted shows approximate trading day intervals around definable patterns. Of course there are a few different ways to count this, however I believe the key is to remain curious and alert at these junctures.
So if we count the candles on the daily chart since the top we are now at 23. (Notice the potential pattern direction change at 21 days). So if this pattern is to develop further on the way to 34 and/or 55 days we can use these juncture points to aid in our assessment.

So what else should we consider in our analysis?

• Knowing that Ending Diagonals are strong reversal signals, it is reasonable to believe at least a short term top is in place.
• The most common pattern in trading is a Zig Zag and we don’t appear to have come down in this type of pattern.
• We are straddling the .618 area of retrace around 1.5750
• Oscillators are starting to show signs of overbought conditions.

With al this in mind my bias if for a move down to below 1.53 and even perhaps 1.48 which is what a number of annalists where targeting when the move first started. So I believe this presents a good risk reward trade as a sell.


And what if I’m wrong?
Well, we saw strong rejection of 1.6020 just 23 days ago. A new high above this will provide fresh opportunities to look for a reversal pattern again as any new high at this point will be under pressure to hold above the 1.60 area. So I will be watching closely where we are at on the next Fibonacci day counts. Assuming we are at 23 now from the top, I’ll be watching closely; 34, 55 and 89. And for sure I’ll count every 5, 8, 13 and 21 in between too.
Cheers and good trading
Pierre Charlebois

Posted by Pierre Charlebois in FX Weekly Report at 14:52 | Comments (0) | Trackbacks (0)

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Is the top in place on the AUD/USD?Sunday, May 18, 2008



This week let's look at the AUD/USD. I has had quite a successfully run since march 2006 and has recently found strong resistance around the 0.9500 area. It seems as if there is a glass ceiling on this pair that won't allow the AUD to appreciate all the way to even par. So how do we trade this.
It's entirely possible that we are witnessing another ending diagonal forming, like we saw recently on the EUR/USD however this time it appears that the entire move since August 07 is a giant wedge. The question is; is it complete or do we need one more thrust upward? The shape is a little unorthodox however the rules and guidelines are all in place. Let's review what we know about Ending Diagonals and what usually happens immediately following them.
We saw the sudden and direct reversal on the EUR/USD once the pattern was complete. This is in fact one of the most important characteristics. So if the AUS/USD has topped, have we seen a strong reversal? I would say no, not yet. The most recent move down was choppy and complex. In Elliott Wave terms this suggest a corrective wave and that if this assessment is correct will be followed by a final thrust upward to herald the top of the overall pattern.

So I would look for a reasonably strong move upward followed by a small break of the upper trend-line and then a sudden and fast reversal that should confirm the top. This comes about because of the inexperience of the smaller traders that drive the price upward to make a final new high where the big players are all waiting to sell, believing a price point over the current top (0.9500) will not hold. So the sellers get very aggressive the second they see the high re-visited.
Buying here at might be a good swing trade, targeting just shy of 0.9500. But be wary, because if the assessment is correct this will come down without touching the sides.
Cheers and good trading,
Pierre

Posted by Pierre Charlebois in FX Weekly Report at 06:17


How trader emotion moves the EUR/USD & How to read itFriday, May 9, 2008



Logic moves the markets, right? Supply and demand, economics and market forces are  at the cause of market movement; right? That is certainly one school of thought, however most technical annalist would tell you (myself included) that it is emotion that moves the market. The combined emotional state of the group of traders buying and selling. And that this very emotion is often very identifiable by the patterns that develop on the charts of all traded securities. Trader's emotions reveal themselves in patterns and if we study hard enough, we can learn to recognize the patterns unfolding and therefore what patterns are to follow.
Case in point this week is on the EUR/USD. I was explaining to a group of traders that I mentor that the ending diagonal that formed last week was in itself an identifiable frame where traders where in a particular state of emotion. And that the reversal signalled a change in emotion. Recognizing this helps us a great deal in speculating on where we can target a move to stall or retrace. If we look at the EUR/USD on the daily chart we can speculate that the ending diagonal is a state of emotion that is being countered by the correction that followed. So based on this, it is reasonable to anticipate a stall or re-tracement at or near the point where the previous pattern started to develop.
There are many indicators pointing right at that place now; the barrier where the diagonal began, a doji with a long tail and several standard oscillators signalling an oversold condition. In other-words we are hitting a balance now between the two opposing emotional forces.

How far the re-tracement goes or whether it fully reverses the downward move now requires good technical annalisys. What could be the emotional state of the traders next week? Here are the points we need to ponder that caused the initial reversal.
1. The EUR/USD was highly overbought for an extended period prior to the reversal.
2. Ending Diagonals typically form at the 'END' of moves that are extended.
3. The trader sentiment has turned strongly in favour of the USD.
4. There is still a large technical void down to any meaningful diagonal trend-lines.
Based on the the above, my bias is for the the EUR/USD to see lower numbers in the medium term. So I expect any move up to be corrective and that after a brief period of EURO strength the downward move will likely resume targeting the lower trend-lines. In Elliott Wave terms this move would be labelled as 'A' or as '1' for the first leg down which now appears complete. What is to follow will help determine where the trader's emotions are headed and will reveal more about how we should be counting this going forward. The next move should help reveal what patterns are likely to follow. As always, I remain open to being wrong as the most important thing all technical traders must learn is where they shouldn't be in a trade rather than where they should.

In summary, look for a re-tracement next week to be followed with renewed downward pressure.
Good trading;
Pierre Charlebois

Posted by Pierre Charlebois in FX Weekly Report at 15:56


USD Index - Forex Technical Analysis Video - May 8, 2008Thursday, May 8, 2008



Play this forex technical analysis video (3:08 min)

In this week's forex training video for May 8, Marius from Phincorp Capital Markets reflects on his thoughts from last week's US Dollar Index analysis.
If you liked this analysis, check out Phincorp's Trading Signals, which was made to assist traders in their day-to-day trading.

Posted by TM Communications in FX Weekly Report at 11:31 | Comments (0) | Trackbacks (0)

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Is the JPY due to strengthen?Friday, May 2, 2008



I was studying the EUR/JPY this week and I drew a trend-line across the tops. At that moment it struck me that a trend-line across the bottom presented the possibility that a large triangle has been forming since August of last year.  The wave structure through the triangle is not ideal (and we know this is usually the case), however the patterns do represent a reasonable possibility. (Remember a proper triangle should have 5 moves of three and then continue in the previous trend direction). And even if the triangle scenario is incorrect the trend-lines are still valid and provide reasonable boundaries and  expectations. So I am trading this pattern expecting downward action over the next couple of weeks.

What the problem is now of course is weather the top boundary is within a reasonable risk tolerance for your trading. Having a stop loss of several hundred pips is truly not recommended, so what do we do now.
I believe there are two options. Simply let this move go by and keep this pair on your watch list for a buy when it appears we have bottomed near the lower  trend line. Or watch the one hour chart for a retracement upward and a candlestick pattern that represents a reversal back down.

Good trading all and for my European readers, I trust you enjoyed a nice long weekend.
Pierre
pcharlebois@tradingpostfinancial.com

Posted by Pierre Charlebois in FX Weekly Report at 10:03


Currency Rollcall - Forex Technical Analysis Video - May 1, 2008Thursday, May 1, 2008



Play this forex technical analysis video (8:32 min)

In this week's forex training video, Marius Alexe from Phincorp Capital Markets looks at US Dollar Index for May 1, 2008.
Check out Phincorp's Trading Signals, which was made to assist traders in their day-to-day trading.

Posted by TM Communications in FX Weekly Report at 16:45 | Comments (0) | Trackbacks (0)


How Low Will the EUR/USD Now Go?Friday, April 25, 2008



Last week I focused on the forming Ending Diagonal on the EUR/USD and suggested that if the pattern was correct, there would be no subtlety in the move down once the top was in place. Indeed the assessment was correct and subsequently the pair has now fallen over 400 Pips in little more than two days. I heard it described as; it came down without touching the sides!

The next challenge is to now be alert to the next possibility of buying or selling depending on how the pattern will unfold. Let's address what is common following Ending Diagonals.
The name ending implies we have completed a substantial move and at least a temporary top is in place. So at the very least we should expect a total correction from where the pattern began forming. If we are also at the end of a longer cycle, then an even greater correction will take place.
The way to trade this is to expect a trading channel to form and to look at barriers on the way down and to Sell after Bounces as the move down corrects, reducing your position size as we approach lower levels below the Ending Diagonal pattern.

It will be at this stage that we will likely see a reversal that will either be a correction of the move down, or a new move up towards a potential double top or marginal new high.

So for now, sell the reversal off the bounce when a definable channel looks to have formed. For those of you that are impatient, you could consider a buy if you can identify when the currency pair turns to correct. Just remember, this is like trying to catch a falling knife; lot's of fun when you do it right, but plenty of blood when you miss.
Good trading!
Pierre
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Posted by Pierre Charlebois in FX Weekly Report at 16:32 | Comments (0) | Trackbacks (0)


EUR/USD – Teetering on a Top?Sunday, April 20, 2008



Last week, I wrote about a forming triangle and to look for a bottom in the GBP/USD that should/would provide a good risk-reward trade. Such a trade did materialize for over 200 pips (so far). My target on the GBP/USD is 2.01. Note that any move back into the Triangle should be seen as a reversal and that the overall trend has changed. At that point (a move below 1.9800), I would expect heavy selling and I would then join the bearish pack.

This week, it is very relevant to address the differences between a ‘Triangle’ and a ‘Wedge’ based on the ‘look’ of the EUR/USD.
The Misconception
In my interactions with students and trading partners, the term falling or rising ‘Wedge’ is very often used to describe two trend-lines that have such an appearance. What I have observed over the years about this is; that frequently the two trend-lines are valid, however the ‘Wedge’ pattern and what it represents is often miss-interpreted, and I think, used in too broad of a sense. What also occurs with these patterns is that some traders call all ‘wedge-like’ patterns ‘triangles’. By not discriminating between these patterns a trader must wait to observe what side the price action will exit, as without proper identification the price action can go either way as triangles and wedges (if correctly identified) produce price action in opposite directions.
The Opportunity
With better analysis, it is possible to increase the likelihood of identification and in doing so, provide better recognition of potential entry levels. As such, I like to refer to ‘Wedges’ as ‘Ending or ‘Leading’ Diagonals. I will attempt to explain the subtle but important nuances that separate the Diagonal from the Triangle in general terms with some references to Elliott Wave Theory as this study explains the patterns in very specific detail. (I’m only going to address the ‘Ending Diagonal’ today)
1. Firstly, why I use the term ‘Ending Diagonal’ rather than ‘Wedge’ is as the name implies, the pattern must be in the ending position of a trend.
2. It foretells a reversal (Triangles are continuation patterns)
3. It must come at the end of a long or exaggerated move (just following a small correction)
4. An ending diagonal will in all cases move in the direction of the aforementioned large move.
5. It should have a look resembling a wedge more so than a triangle
6. When the top/bottom is in place, there is absolutely no subtlety to the reversal and a swift retracement/reversal ensues.
7. On an ending diagonal the internal ‘Elliott’ wave structure is 5 waves that subdivide into 3 waves each. (This part can be a little hard to identify).

Based on the criteria above, there is a possibility that the EUR/USD is forming an ending diagonal. I don't like the structure of the first wave in the formation, however as much as it doesn't fit good guidelines; it can be counted to fit the possibility. The following waves fit the guidelines well, as does the overall shape and of course it appears in the correct position following a large and fast movement.
I believe that if the pattern is correct, we are just at the bottom of wave 4 and we need one more move of three waves up to re-test the highs for a completed 5th and final wave. Once this happens, we should witness a very sudden and strong fall.
My bias is: Look for a return to the 1.60 area. From there, watch for a reversal candle on the one hour chart. If the pattern is correct this will signal that the top is in place.
Keep a close watch; Sunday, Monday, Tuesday
In the end, if I am wrong about the pattern, as I said earlier, the trend-lines are very valid and a break going the opposite way than originally expected provides in itself, a new opportunity for trading.
Pierre
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Posted by Pierre Charlebois in FX Weekly Report at 23:50 | Comments (0) | Trackbacks (0)

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Latest Entries
How to trade the GBP/USD next week and monthFriday, April 11, 2008





Hi Folks.
It’s good to be writing this report again after a 3 month absence. I will be changing the format a little to primarily focus on technical patterns and trade opportunities rather than the fundamentals. That work should be left up to the economist and business writers. My view is to use ‘big picture’ fundamentals in order to understand the overall business mood then look for buy or sell opportunities based on the general direction this pressure is exerting on currencies, equities and commodities.
A great example of this is the USD, GBP and EUR. What we know is that based on current world economics; the EURO has been favored over the other two currencies. So my focus has been to favor the EURO in most trades. What I am now looking for is a shift in sentiment in order to correct overbought or oversold conditions.


Latest Entries
FX Weekly Report - For the week of December 23, 2007Friday, December 21, 2007



Battle of the Bears and Bulls GBP and EUR versus USD
What a ferocious battle between longs and shorts it was from late Thursday evening, overnight and into the New York session in the morning on Dec 21st. The EUR/USD and the GBP/USD oscillated wildly back and forth for the 24 hours leading up to the market close on Friday. In fact at time of writing I observed a 90 pip gain and loss in less than 24 hours on the GBP/USD. What this is all about fundamentally is simply that news is bad out of both the Euro Region/Great Britain and also out of the US. So the annalists are not looking at good economic news of one country over another but rather from which country is the news not as bad. This puts us in an interesting place technically. The USD had gaining very well over the last few weeks and in particular the last 10 days. The question going into the holidays is whether this trend will continue or is there a turn in the currency markets in Santa’s bag?
Let’s look at the technical indicators and the overall sentiment versus the USD.

The Canadian Dollar is back below par and seems to be doing it’s best to stay below the very important $1.00 psychological level. Are we on our way to a double bottom? The COT reports (Commitment of Traders) has the EUR/USD as ‘ready for a turn’ to Bullish. We are at lower trend-lines on both the EUR/USD and GBP/USD and a turn is due And the Cary Trade seems to have been given some new life on Friday
• However one important factor not yet in line is that the GBP/USD COT report has yet to move from Bearish to Bullish

None of these factors alone or even together indicate the moment a turn in trader sentiment happens, however they should been seen as at least signaling that further Dollar strength
limited for the short term.
Have a Happy Holiday,
Pierre Charlebois

Posted by Pierre Charlebois in FX Weekly Report at 15:10


FX Weekly Report - For December 14-21, 2007Friday, December 14, 2007






The dollar advanced the most against the euro since August 2004 after the biggest increase in consumer inflation in two years prompted traders to pare expectations for interest-rate reductions. The dollar was helped this week by a coordinated plan led by the Fed to alleviate the credit crunch and the U.S. central bank's third cut in interest rates this year to avert a recession in the world's largest economy.
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK – DAILY CHARTS

EURUSD
Resistance:1.4750
Support:1.3990
Sentiment:BEARISH

GBPUSD
Resistance:2.0450
Support:2.0000
Sentiment:To Bearish
USDJPY
Resistance:114.90
Support:110.50
Sentiment:Bullish
USDCHF
Resistance:1.1735
Support:1.1160
Sentiment:Bullish
USDCAD
Resistance:1.0340
Support:0.9975
Sentiment:Still Bullish
AUDUSD
Resistance:0.8900
Support:0.8335
Sentiment:BEARISH
GBPJPY
Resistance:233.70
Support:224.80
Sentiment:Mildly Bullish
The dollar gained against 14 of the 16 most-actively traded currencies as futures show the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in January declined from 100 percent.
U.S. consumer prices increased 0.8 percent last month after a 0.3 percent gain in October. The median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey was 0.6 percent. Producer prices rose the fastest in 34 years last month, data showed yesterday.


Posted by Zoltan Vass in FX Weekly Report at 13:01 | Comments (3) | Trackbacks (0)


FX Weekly Report - For the week of December 9th, 2007Saturday, December 8, 2007




Dollar versus EUR and GBP
I was reading an article on Bloomberg this morning after the payroll data and although the news item took a positive slant, I think the most important factor mentioned was “The (US) economy is slowing down in the forth quarter but not so rapidly that you’re going to have a big down-draft in consumer spending”. So is it saying; things are bad, just not really bad? I think Kathy Lien’s article on Daily FX posted just shortly after the announcement is closer to the mark in regards to how currency traders are seeing the news. She had written an article the previous day about how a very strong number would be needed to bolster the fragile current Dollar recovery. So although the numbers were better than expected they don’t seem to be enough to give the Dollar what it needs for an accelerated recovery.
What’s next?
All focus now shifts to next week’s FOMC interest rate decision. There has been talk of as much as a ½ point reduction however with reasonable Employment data a ¼ is now just as possible. So the thing to watch going into the announcement is what the street will be expecting. If sentiment is for ¼ point and this is what we get then we may not see much reaction and a slight strengthening of the Dollar may occur. However on the other hand if the street expects a ¼ point and we get ½ then we will likely see resumption of the strong upward trend and a return to the 1.50 area on the EUR. The key here is to try and stay attuned to what the expectation is. The GBP/USD is at a precarious point on the up-trend line so keep an eye on an attempt at that level. (See chart)
The Carry-Trade watch
So far we are still in limbo waiting to see if the critical levels are going to be revisited. At this time it looks like more correction to the upside is due before any new attempts at the lower levels. Let’s a keep a vigil here.
The CAD back at a Buck even
The CAD made a great run back to parity coming within 5 Pips of par again friday morning. I think another visit to the other side for a short while is in the making. The Canadian Government has been jawboning (making positioning statements without action) but has yet to take any real action towards reducing the value of its currency. As long as traders continue to view the USD as soft and resources remain strong (Oil , Gold Etc), we should expect continued play at the “Par” level.  
Have a great week in trading,
Pierre Charlebois

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK – DAILY CHARTS

EURUSD
Resistance:1.4785
Support:1.4490
Sentiment:Mixed

GBPUSD
Resistance:2.505
Support:2.0140
Sentiment:Mixed To Bearish
USDJPY
Resistance:112.90
Support:109.50
Sentiment:Bullish
USDCHF
Resistance:1.1460
Support:1.1160
Sentiment:Mildly Bullish
USDCAD
Resistance:1.0340
Support:0.9835
Sentiment:Still Bullish
AUDUSD
Resistance:0.8925
Support:0.9655
Sentiment:Mildly Bullish
GBPJPY
Resistance:231.10
Support:222.40
Sentiment:Mildly Bullish


Posted by Pierre Charlebois in FX Weekly Report at 10:44


For the week of December 2, 2007Friday, November 30, 2007





Yen Pairs retreat from critical levels… But don’t take your eyes off the charts too long!
Last week I posted a shot of a Head and Shoulders pattern on the GBP/JPY and just as the price approached the critical level we saw an abrupt about face in the general direction on the currency. This is not unusual and I have heard it said that sometimes a failed signal can be the best signal in representing the next opportunity.



That said though the pattern is still valid. The two things we need watch for now are: A) A break of the neckline to confirm the pattern or B) a new high above the second shoulder to invalidate it. In fact it is not uncommon to see that kind of retreat to such an important barrier on the first attempt. Let’s see what happens when the price action comes back for another try. In fact I’ve place a longer term view of this currency pair to show what happened the last time a Head and Shoulders pattern appeared. This one is inverse and definitely started a new general direction on the pair. So keep a very close watch on all JPY pairs for breaks below their August low’s.


Fundamentally it is hard to sometimes understand that a reaction on the stock markets have a strengthening effect on the Yen. This however is the case as the Yen strengthens when traders move to reduce risk.
In the news is how there is wide spread opinion now that the Shanghai exchange may be a bubble in the bursting stage and this could have a domino affect on everything else. What is still yet unknown of course is just when the next attempts at these critical levels will take place. However I can say that in the short term I noticed a ‘Diagonal’ or ‘Wedge’ on a 15 minute EUR/JPY at market-close on Friday. Look for a sudden burst of activity at market open on Sunday.

What about the USD versus the GBP and the EUR.
Last week I talked about how the EUR and GBP where flying a little too high for political and economic comfort and we are now starting to see that these currencies couldn’t keep going in one direction. Although the news isn’t great out of the US it seems that pour news out of the Euro Zone is giving back some momentum to the Dollar. But don’t get too comfortable thinking this is for sure the top as there is now strong belief a large US interest rate cut is coming again on December 11th. Traders and economist may start pricing in this expectation starting next week. Let’s watch the highly anticipated Employment numbers this coming Friday to get a sense of what may be to come the following week.
A quick note on the CAD
We should see a little bit of rejection here and then some consolidation around the par level for the next week or two. The Canadian will be going through a bit of an identity crisis now if Oil continues to drop. It’s going to walk to its own drum for a while I think.
Have a great weekend and positive trading week.

Pierre Charlebois
TECHNICAL LEVELS

EURUSD
RESISTANCE: 1.4910
SUPPORT: 1.4520
SENTIMENT: BEARISH
USDJPY
RESISTANCE: 112.90
SUPPORT:108.50
SENTIMENT:BULLISH
GBPUSD
RESISTANCE:2.0835
SUPPORT: 2.0355
SENTIMENT: BEARISH
USDCHF
RESISTANCE: 1.1510
SUPPORT: 1.1160
SENTIMENT: BULLISH
USDCAD
RESISTANCE: 1.0155
SUPPORT: 0.9820
SENTIMENT: BULLISH
AUDUSD
RESISTANCE: 0.8955
SUPPORT: 0.9725
SENTIMENT: BEARISH
GBPJPY
RESISTANCE: 231.30
SUPPORT: 222.40
SENTIMENT: MILDLY BEARISH
EURJPY
RESISTANCE: 165.05
SUPPORT: 158.70
SENTIMENT: BEARISH


Posted by Pierre Charlebois in FX Weekly Report at 14:48

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Latest Entries
FX Weekly Report - For the week of November 25th, 2007Saturday, November 24, 2007



  Will the Carry Trade unwind?
Last week we saw the JPY gain against all 16 major currencies and we are now sitting at a critical point technically. The fundamentals do appear to be coming together as Zoltan has been saying, for this to be the year of the Yen. In January of this year, Zoltan Vass (our Chief Economist and Chairman), delivered a presentation on what to expect for the year. He stated $140 on the Euro was in sight and that this would be the year for the Yen, especially in the second half.  Well we are now just shy of $1.50 on the Euro and of course we know what happened in August on the JPY pairs. What’s next?
Last week I wrote about how we need to stay focused on the JPY as we are in a range that when we break out, we will likely see the longer term direction immerge. Specifically I said watch the EUR/JPY as our barometer for other moves. Look at where we are now and ask yourself what is likely to happen when institutional traders return to trading this coming Sunday/Monday. The added volume that was absent due to the US Holiday will undoubtedly start some volatility in all equity and Forex markets. We made it below the first important barrier of 160.50 and although we quickly retreated, the next important barrier is well within striking distance. The technical void below 158.72 provides fertile ground for further decline. BTW… take a look at the potential Head and Shoulders pattern on the GBP/JPY. What would a break below 220.00 produce?
The politics of a $150 Euro
Something I have been watching for this week is how the Euro Zone exporters are reacting to such a high Euro. In the news this week from London, comes a report that Airbus, the second largest Airliner manufacturer has done a flip flop on how it is affected by such a strong Euro and British Pound. A week ago their statement was that it was not such a bid deal and now this week, they claim to be losing as the Euro rises and the Dollar falls. Airbus is in a precarious place right now having just started delivery of the worlds newest and largest Jumbo liner, 2 years latter than promised with of course extreme overruns and the threat of lost orders. What are the European politicians going to do as Airbus’ profit and viability becomes jeopardized as the Euro continues to climb. Airbus is an enormous company and is a conglomerate of the assimilation of many of Europe’s aeronautics’ businesses, that represents exactly what the Euro Zone and the Euro itself is supposed to be. A sudden decline or at worst a failure of such a company at this time would potentially undermine a great deal of the recent gains made economically by the Euro Zone. I think at this time we will see European politicians start to support the idea of a reduction in the Euro’s value fearing too much pressure on the local exporters.
Politics of an interest rate change in the USA
The other thing that will be brewing over the next week or so is the rumors surrounding the next FOMC meeting and subsequent interest rate decision. In the week just passed we have seem the sentiment flip-flop between keeping the rate steady and decreasing it further. At this time the fears seem to be about a US recession so a further reduction in the rate is favored (at least for now). Let’s see how this enters the mix if the carry trade bottom falls out and whether the Euro Zone considers policy to reduce the value of the Euro.
A quick word on the USD/CAD
Well, we do seem to have put in a Key reversal. The question here is; have we seen the significant turn. My perspective on this as a trader is to ask what is going on with the Loonie that makes it different from other currencies trading against the USD. Virtually all other Dollars pairs have gained or at least not weakened anything close to what the CAD has in the past two weeks. This could be the beginning of trader sentiment towards a possible re-strengthening of the USD. After all, Oil and Gold are making records while the Canadian retreats. This is completely different to what we had seen over the previous 12 months. What is underlying here in the psyche of trader mentality of this pair? Will we look back on this move and say; this pairs was giving us clues as to what was to come on other USD pairs.
I do hope we you have all had a great Thanksgiving.
Pierre Charlebois – VP Trading Solutions
EUR/USD
RESISTANCE: 1.4965 – ALL TIME HIGH, 1.5000
SUPPORT: 1.4705
SENTIMENT: UPTREND RELENTLESS, BUT STARTS WANING, CORRECTION IS DUE

GBP/USD
RESISTANCE: 2.0800
SUPPORT: 2.0355
SENTIMENT: MIXED TO BEARISH

USD/JPY
RESISTANCE: 110.55
SUPPORT: 106.50
SENTIMENT: BEARISH

USD/CHF
RESISTANCE: 1.1145
SUPPORT:1.0895
SENTIMENT: MIXED, SEEMS BOTTOMING

USD/CAD
RESISTANCE: 1.0095
SUPPORT: 0.9705
SENTIMENT: BULLISH

AUD/USD
RESISTANCE: 0.8995
SUPPORT: 0.8540
SENTIMENT: BEARISH

GBP/JPY
RESISTANCE: 225.85
SUPPORT:217.40
SENTIMENT: BEARISH

EUR/JPY
RESISTANCE: 162.60
SUPPORT:156.30
SENTIMENT:BEARISH


Posted by Pierre Charlebois in FX Weekly Report at 11:56


FX Weekly Report - For the week of November 18th, 2007Saturday, November 17, 2007



  
The week ahead in the Forex and other markets
This week the focus is on one currency that should act as a barometer for all other pairs and even other markets and indices. I spoke about it on the special webcast this last week and it is the Japanese Yen. I won’t go into much detail this time about the fundamentals except to say that there is still a lot of anxiety in the markets regarding the liquidity issue around the sub-prime mortgages. This is the current major driver of virtually all world economics. The constant question on everybody’s mind is still; If the US sneezes does the rest of the world catch a cold?
How does the Yen act as a barometer regarding other currencies and indices?
Studies have shown that the EUR/JPY currency pair has been in relative parallel with the MSCI World index which is a selection of stocks from the larger stock exchanges world-wide rolled into one index. Many technical annalists would say it to be over 90% correlated.

So as the EUR/JPY has moved up and down over the years so has this index and also worth noting is that the Dow Jones and S&P have followed similar paths.
So this brings us back to the JPY Carry-trade and its potential unwinding. As you see on the charts I’ve posted, one thing that is hard to argue is the simple observation that this pair either moves up or down with definitive momentum and spends very little time consolidating or moving sideways. That said; look at where we are at, in terms of the momentum since last July when we had a strong correction. Now take a look at where the price is hovering as it appears that a breakout will be coming shortly in either one direction or the other. This looks like a threshold point. I’m considering a break above 166.00 and then 167.74 to be the trigger barriers going up and 160.50 and 158.67 to be the barriers to break going down.

What if the EUR/JPY goes up?
If the move is to the upside I would expect business as usual with momentum remaining in the Bulls favor on most indices. The general trend remaining up on the Dow and likely continued strength for the EUR and CAD.

What if it goes down?
If we break below the levels I have mentioned then I would expect a reversal of the general trend on most indices (if not all) towards the downside, and a reversal of all general trends on the currencies. Meaning that we should see at least for the short to medium term, some strength come back to the USD.

My bias at this point is to expect some movement towards higher levels for now, knowing a sudden and sharp reversal is possible.
Pierre Charlebois - VP Trading Solutions
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK – DAILY CHARTS
EUR/USD
Resistance: 1.4775
Support: 1.4465
Sentiment: mixed
GBP/USD
Resistance:2.0675
Support: 2.0320
Sentiment:  bearish
AUD/USD
Resistance: 0.9100
Support: 0.8740
Sentiment: mixed
USD/JPY
Resistance: 113.35  
Support: 109.15
Sentiment: bearish
USD/CAD
Resistance: 1.0015
Support:0.9530
Sentiment: mixed to bullish
USD/CHF
Resistance: 1.1450
Support: 1.1000
Sentiment: mixed to bullish
GPB/JPY
Resistance: 232.45
Support 219.35
Sentiment: mixed to bearish
EUR/JPY
Resistance: 164.30
Support: 161.55
Sentiment: mixed

Posted by Pierre Charlebois in FX Weekly Report at 10:51


FX Weekly Report - Week of November 11th, 07Friday, November 9, 2007





The Carry trade is unwinding again…
So what’s in store for Sunday afternoon market opening? The JPY rallied like we haven’t seen since August of this year. Remember in one week in August we saw a 1600 pip drop in the EUR/JPY when the markets tumbled along with it.
It appears investors and traders are moving back into risk aversion mode which means moving away from things like the Carry Trade. Combine this with continued news about write-downs for lenders due to the ongoing concerns of the sub-prime debacle and we have a perfect storm brewing all over again.
What this means for the EUR and GBP versus the USD.
In essence what happens short term with these currencies is a strengthening of the USD. Investors/traders take profits out of the markets most often in the form of US Dollars so this tends to create an immediate short term strengthening of the USD. Let’s also remember that the USD is at an extreme against most of its counterparts so the timing of this may be another factor to consider.
And what of the High Flying Loonie?
Another incredible week for the CAD, setting more records in the process. What was very interesting on the CAD was the 250 pip movement in both directions in a single day. The downside is now starting to appear limited and if we haven’t yet hit the bottom we can’t be far off. This currency pair has been breaking all the rules technically and is due for at least a correction. What may buoy the Canadian is if Oil and Gold continue to soar. BUT… if they come off… the loonie could do a bit of a crash landing.








Posted by Pierre Charlebois in FX Weekly Report at 16:25


FX Weekly Report - November 2nd 1PM PDTFriday, November 2, 2007



Economic Calendar http://www.dailyfx.com/export/sites/dailyfx/files/Calendar-11-04-2007.pdf
    
This week’s currency story is still about the Canadian Dollar
Well let’s start of with what that Loonie is doing. It was pushed once again to record highs on continued high Oil prices back above $91/barrel and Gold creping over the $800 mark. And to cap off the trading week, great numbers were registered in ‘Employment’ Friday morning for Canadians in the month of October. This is all continuing to fuel the Loonie’s continued move of strength, especially against the US Dollar.
The value of the Loonie though is starting to put the Bank of Canada between a rock and a hard place. There are still surges in good economic news and at the same time the currency has moved so far so fast and for so long that
it is putting severe pressure on the Canadian manufacturing sector. This is causing many factories to relocate outside Canada, reduce production or close all together. If Canada continues to reduce its value added manufacturing and becomes even more reliant on commodities to sustain its economy, then what happens when commodity prices cool off?
This becomes a conundrum for the Bank of Canada in that raising rates should cool the economy but will create more pressure on further increasing the value of the currency and the speculation cycle accelerates some more. Watching what the Bank of Canada does over the next month or so will become sport for most of us as it will be interesting to see how the Banks tries to put balance back in the economy. Most of the action on the CAD right now is traders looking for any excuse to buy it some more. As long as this goes on, we will see the same direction. Just keep a watch out for the end.

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The Trader's EdgeAn overview of the currency markets by Ross Yamashita,of Pro Pipper Trading










Enjoy the rest of your weekend and we’ll update our blog with a full report at the beginning of the week.
NZD/CAD Trade
Posted on March 31, 2009 at 4:02 in Uncategorized by Ross YamashitaNo Comments »

Hello everyone!
Let’s review the NZD/CAD hourly chart.

We have had a nice, strong movement up. We hit a new high from the recent up-trend and the question now is will it continue or start to head back down.
Current price is 0.7128 and our analysis shows there’s still a good potential move to the 0.7200+ area before heading back down again.
One other factor you must consider is that the spread on this pair can be astronomical. Some people pay up to 20 pips as the spread to enter this currency pair so be sure to weigh your Risk vs. Reward options.
Be sure to check your announcements, place your stops and apply your money management.
Tags: Elliott Wave, NZD/CAD, Pro Pipper Trading, Ross Yamashita

GBP/NZD Trade Set Up
Posted on March 26, 2009 at 23:11 in Uncategorized by Ross YamashitaNo Comments »

Hello everyone.
Let’s take a break from the EUR/USD and take a look at another one of our favorites - the GBP/NZD.

We completed a large movement down and then did a 3 wave movement up (a, b and c) and am now heading back down in a 5 wave movement.
We came down to wave i, up to wave ii, down to wave iii and now heading back up to complete wave iv before going back down again in wave v.
The nice thing about this is that we know from our Elliott Wave rules is that Wave 4 cannot overlap the range of Wave 1. So, if the pair goes above the black lines, then this wave count is invalidated. If it turns below back and heads down below the black line, then we know we have a high probability movement down.
We hope everyone has a very nice weekend. Don’t forget that we’re also on Twitter. You can follow us at www.twitter.com/propipper.
Apply your money management, use your stops and check your announcements. Good luck.
Tags: Elliott Wave, GBP/NZD, Pro Pipper Trading, Ross Yamashita


EUR/USD Follow Up
Posted on March 26, 2009 at 0:27 in Uncategorized by Ross YamashitaNo Comments »

Hello Atif,
Thank you very much for your comment. Yes, we haven’t been able to close near the high for the past week now.

As you can see on the chart, we are now forming a channel. Look for a potential move down to the bottom trend line, however, the longer term trend still appears to be bullish.
When the pair starts to channel like this, look for a major breakout. We will most likely get a glimpse of the direction before the NFP coming out so between now and next week is a critical time for this pair.
When we see a nice wave count or can get a clear direction, we will update everyone on our ‘Trader’s Edge’ blog here on FX Street.
Good luck and be sure to use your stops and apply your money management.
Tags: Elliott Wave, Euro, Pro Pipper Trading, Ross Yamashita, US Dollar


What’s next for the EUR/USD?
Posted on March 23, 2009 at 23:59 in Uncategorized by Ross Yamashita1 Comment »

March 24, 2009: EUR/USD - Retracing almost all the way back up from yesterday’s session, the bulls seem to still have control and look for a continued movement up.
With many Eurozone and UK PMI coming out later on today, we may see a small retracement down before heading back up again.
Technically speaking, we may potentially be forming an Expanding Triangle, in which case look for a move up, then retracement back down and then back up to continue the overall upward movement.

Currently, we’re about 3 hours before the opening of the European session. For shorter-term trades, look at the smaller time frames, keeping this general movement in mind - as well as the announcements coming up.
Good luck.
Tags: Elliott Wave, EURUSD, Pro Pipper Trading, Ross Yamashita


USD/CAD Short Term Trade
Posted on March 19, 2009 at 22:56 in Uncategorized by Ross YamashitaNo Comments »

Hello.
Here is a shorter term USD/CAD 5 min chart.

Although you can’t see it in the chart, this movement back up is completing Wave 4 of an Impulse movement down.
So, look for a potential small movement back up and then a move down. Remember, this is a 5 minute chart so this is a shorter-term trade and this can move very quickly in a short amount of time.
Check your announcements, apply your money management and place your stops.
Good luck and happy pipping.
Tags: Elliott Wave, Pro Pipper Trading, Ross Yamashita, USDCAD


GBP/USD Trade
Posted on March 16, 2009 at 23:48 in Uncategorized by Ross YamashitaNo Comments »

Hello.
Our scan has brought up some movement on the GBP/uSD. We formed a nice triangle formation and the shorter term trend is down. Look for the pair to come down and test the bottom trend line and then head back up.

Looking at the bigger picture, it’s also good because once the currency pair breaks the last channel, then it’ll potentially help us determine what our wave count is.
We’re watching for a break on the down side lower than 1.3654 and for a break of the high of 1.4227.
Check your announcements, use your stops and apply your money management. Good luck and happy trading.
Tags: Elliott Wave, GBP/USD, Pro Pipper Trading, Ross Yamashita


GBP/USD Trade Analysis
Posted on March 12, 2009 at 21:51 in Uncategorized by Ross YamashitaNo Comments »

Hello everyone.
Here is an hourly look at the GBP/USD. We analyzed the lower time frames and got the smaller counts to come up with this hourly analysis.

Look for the pair to head down in the very short-term, go up to hit the trend line (around the 1.4050- 1.4150) and then start heading back down.
As many of you know, this pair can move quickly so watch your trades, check your announcements, place your stops and apply your money management.
Tags: Elliott Wave, GBP/USD, Pro Pipper Trading, Ross Yamashita


EUR/CHF Long Term Trade Set Up
Posted on March 11, 2009 at 23:46 in Uncategorized by Ross YamashitaNo Comments »

Hello everyone.
Let’s take a look at the EUR/CHF daily chart. This is a longer term chart and trade set up. We have an ED forming - which we outlined by the two black lines.

Look for a short sell off and then a sharp, strong move upwards. Again, keep in mind this is a longer term chart. We do so potential for a shorter-term downward movement.
Check your announcements, place your stops and apply your money management.
Good luck and happy trading.
Tags: Elliott Wave, EUR/CHF, Pro Pipper Trading, Ross Yamashita


VIDEO: USD/CHF Update
Posted on March 10, 2009 at 2:29 in Uncategorized by Ross YamashitaNo Comments »

Hello.
We have uploaded a video analysis of the USD/CHF. This is our first video so please send us your feedback, comments and suggestions. Click here to send us your feedback.
In this video, we explain how you can combine trend lines with Elliott to find some potential trading areas.
Click here to watch the video.
Good luck and happy trading.
Tags: Elliott Wave, Pro Pipper Trading, Ross Yamashita, USD/CHF


Older posts »

hefeiddd

Posted on March 6, 2009 at 2:00 in Uncategorized by Ross YamashitaNo Comments »
Hello everyone.
Here is an analysis on the USD/CHF and we’ll show you how you can work in trend lines with your Elliott Wave analysis.

First, let’s take a look at the trend lines. What we did is simply draw a trend line and duplicate the exact trend line and place them on different trend lines on the chart. We can see this particular trend line fits in well 3 times in our current chart so we can use this trendline to help predict potential future movement of the market.
Moving to our wave count, you can see that in our last movement down, we have come down to complete Wave 1, up to wave 2 and we are currently completing Wave 3. Once wave 3 completes, you can place the trend line where Wave 3 ends and use that trendline to see potential future movement.
Once Wave 3 completes, look for a move up to complete Wave 4 and then move back down to complete wave 5 of the movement down.
Moving over to the US NFP announcement, most experts and analysts are saying that good news about the US economic status is not anywhere in the near future. For numbers, experts and analysts are predicting:
A loss of 500,000 to 800,000
Unemployment rate to 7.9% (up from 7.6%)
Be sure to monitor your trades when trading during the NFP. Use your stops and apply your money management.
For more NFP news and analysis, please visit the FX Street website. They are definitely a great resource for all your NFP news and analysis.
Good luck and have a nice, restful and safe weekend.
Tags: Elliott Wave, Pro Pipper Trading, Ross Yamashita, Trend Lines, USD/CHF

GBP/NZD Trade Analysis
Posted on March 4, 2009 at 2:29 in Uncategorized by Ross YamashitaNo Comments »

Hello everyone.
Our scan of the market has picked up an Ending Diagonal. This is another wave formation that we like to trade.

Watch for the pair to head back up to the upper trend line and then move down quickly.
Remember to use your stop losses and apply your money management.
We also updated the Pro Pipper Trading website with a video update so watch for video updates to hit our blog on FX Street soon.
Good luck and happy trading.
Tags: Elliott Wave, GBP/NZD, Pro Pipper Trading, Ross Yamashita

EUR/USD Weekend Analysis
Posted on March 2, 2009 at 1:51 in Uncategorized by Ross YamashitaNo Comments »

Hello and welcome back from the weekend.
Before the trading week starts for both the European and US sessions, let’s take a look at the EUR/USD longer term chart for an analysis.

We can see that we are in an overall down trend on the daily chart. Our look at shorter time frames has also signaled that we have just turned to a downward move again - not to say that this could change very quickly as these are shorter time frames.
I’m still holding for another retracement back up. If the currency goes below the low of 10/28/08 and breaks away, then I know that we are looking at a nice, continued downward movement.
We’ll wait to see what unfolds as the markets open from the weekend. Remember to place your stops when trading and apply your money management.
Good luck.
Tags: Elliott Wave, EURUSD, Pro Pipper Trading, Ross Yamashita


EUR/USD Trade Analysis
Posted on February 25, 2009 at 22:51 in Uncategorized by Ross YamashitaNo Comments »

Hello.
We are about 4 hours away from the opening of the European markets and we wanted to give you our EUR/USD analysis.

As you can see from the screen capture, we have put in two trend lines.
The overall trend seems to be downward movement. Look for the pair to go up and test the top trendline before coming back down. If it breaks the bottom trend line and spreads away from it further down, then look for a nice continuation downward.
As many of you in Europe and the UK get ready for this trading day, be sure to do your research - including checking for announcements that may affect the market. Also, be sure to place your stops and apply your money management.
Good luck.
Tags: Elliott Wave, EURUSD, Pro Pipper Trading, Ross Yamashita


USD/JPY Trade Watch
Posted on February 24, 2009 at 10:15 in Uncategorized by Ross YamashitaNo Comments »

Hello.
This is a trade watch for a potential turning point for the USD/JPY.

We drew a Fibonacci line from the high of 8/15/08 to the low of 12/17/08 and have highlighted where we currently are. If you notice, we just broke the 38.2% retracement line. We broke it, but we did not break away from it yet.
Watch for a potential change in trend to the downside in the near future. It may go all the way up to the 61.8% retracement.
The best way to analyze this is to break it down in lower time frames to see what comes up. As far as this daily chart goes, we can see a 3-3-5 wave formation.
Good luck and remember to always use your stops and apply your money management.


USD/CHF Forecast & Wave Count
Posted on February 20, 2009 at 5:08 in Uncategorized by Ross Yamashita2 Comments »

Hello.
We’ve been getting a couple questions about the USD/CHF and, as it turns out, we have a pretty nice wave formation going rigth now so we thought we’d give you our count of this currency pair.
Refer to the chart.

As you can see, we had a nice 5 wave movement up that is pretty self explanatory on the count. Now, we’re in the retracement wave.
After the pair peaks at Wave 5, some analysts would put the first wave (the one we marked “i”) as the “a” wave. Although this may be correct, it is very short in both time and price so we’re labeling that as the first wave of the 5 wave corrective “a” wave.
We then see we have a 5 wave movement down to complete the “a” wave and am now heading up into the “b” wave of the retracement. Look for it to top soon and then head down for a “c” wave. If the pair goes above the high of Wave 5, then this will invalidate this forecast.
Remember to use your trailing stops and apply your money management when trading.
Good luck and if we don’t see you before then, we hope everyone has a restful and relaxing weekend.

Tags: Elliott Wave, Pro Pipper Trading, Ross Yamashita, USD/CHF


EUR/JPY Trade Analysis
Posted on February 18, 2009 at 1:46 in Uncategorized by Ross YamashitaNo Comments »

Hello and welcome back!
We had a nice weekend here and am just catching up with all the markets. Our scan of the markets has pulled up the EUR/JPY.
We first pulled up a daily chart and see that the overall trend seems to be down. We took it down to the hourly (H1) chart for a closer look and have attached the screen capture here.

Look for a test of the first trend line at Line 1. If the pair breaks the line and keeps moving up, look for it to test the second trend line at Line 2. At that point, look for a potential reversal to the downside - keeping in mind that it may wick above the line.
Good to see everyone again and we’ll see everyone again shortly.

Tags: Elliott Wave, EUR/JPY, Pro Pipper Trading, Ross Yamashita


GBP/JPY Analysis and Count
Posted on February 12, 2009 at 23:54 in Uncategorized by Ross Yamashita2 Comments »

Hello.
Let’s take a look at a shorter term chart - GBP/JPY.

We’re about halfway through the Asian session and about 4 hours before the opening of the European markets.
We saw the currency pair hit a potential turning low point on Thursday. From there, we have a nice movement up. You can see our count of the retracement.
The bears seem to have short-term control of the GBP/JPY. We’ll potentially see a retracement back down (completing Wave 4) and then a Wave 5 movement back up.
Remember, this is a shorter term trade so be sure to keep your stop losses tight and apply your money management. This pair can move very quickly in a short period of time so check your announcements.
For those of you in the US, we hope you have a nice (and relaxful) President’s Day weekend.
Good luck and we’ll see everyone again shortly.
Tags: Elliott Wave, GBPJPY, Pro Pipper Trading, Ross Yamashita


AUD/USD Trade Set Up
Posted on February 11, 2009 at 0:23 in Uncategorized by Ross YamashitaNo Comments »

Hello and welcome back to another week of trading.
On the AUD/USD daily chart, we’re forming a (contracting) triangle formation and we’re almost near the end of it.

According to our analysis, we are in a downtrend. Watch for a potential test of the upper trend line, however, look for it continue down. If you are are currently in a sell trade, put your stop rigth above the upper trend line - keeping in mind that it may “wick” you out so be a little generous when setting your stop loss prices.
Once it breaks and moves away from the bottom trend line, look for a nice movement down.
This is a nice potential trade set up here so keep your eyes on this one. Remember to place your stops and use your money management.
Good luck and we’ll hopefully we’ll get another set up to share with you tomorrow.
Happy trading.


Post NFP
Posted on February 9, 2009 at 0:26 in Uncategorized by Ross YamashitaNo Comments »

Hello.
What a trading day we had on Friday. We were looking for a longer term short trade and we made a few pips before the pair came back up.
Now, has the pair “topped” and will we see a move down? Our analysis shows that we’re potentially in a definite long term down trend so watch the opening of the European session and also some economic data and announcements coming out of the U.S. today.
We’ll have all the updates with screen captures for you later on in the week.
Good luck and happy trading.


« Newer posts – Older posts »

hefeiddd

Posted on February 4, 2009 at 22:52 in Uncategorized by Ross YamashitaNo Comments »
Hello.
It’s the middle of the Asian trading session and we’d like to update everyone on the AUD/USD Daily chart.
The daily chart has formed somewhat of a triangle and we are nearing the breaking point.

Watch for the currency pair to break either Trend Line 2 (TL 2 ) or Trend Line 1 (TL 1 ).
If it goes up and breaks TL 2 and continues moving upward, then look for a good movement up to test the top of high of 1/7.
If it goes down and breaks TL 1, then watch for it to test the low of 10/27/08. If it breaks and moves lower, then look for a good movement down.
We will most likely see what unfolds on Friday mornings USD’s NFP announcement.
Remember to use your stops and apply your money management.
Tags: AUD/USD, Elliott Wave, Pro Pipper Trading, Ross Yamashita

Coffee Break
Posted on February 3, 2009 at 0:41 in Uncategorized by Ross YamashitaNo Comments »

Hello everyone.
Welcome back to another trading week. I wanted to take a break from analysis and forecasts for a day and take somewhat of a ‘coffee break’. And although this is not a forecast, I hope this will potentially help you in your own trading because that is what we want you to achieve.

Part of our analysis involves trendlines. Many times when we are approaching a trendline (as we were in the EUR/USD daily charts), we said to watch for a break of the black line and for the pair to keep moving down.
The pair did break the line, however, you can see it quickly retraced back up. So, although this may constitute a break, we didn’t trade this because it didn’t close below the line and then continue down.
This is a good rule to follow when entering the market near trend lines.
So, you ask - what do we do now? We look at shorter time frames to see if there are any internal wave counts that could indicate a retracement or continuation.
We’ll save that for our next coffee break.
Good luck and happy trading.
Tags: Elliott Wave, EURUSD, Pro Pipper Trading

EUR/USD Preview
Posted on January 29, 2009 at 23:24 in Uncategorized by Ross YamashitaNo Comments »

Hello.
As we are midway through the Asian session, let’s get a preview of the EUR/USD.
As we approach the European opening, we saw the Euro weaken across the board yesterday as a result of poor economic data.
Technically speaking, we’ve have a support line that has popped up and would indicate a continued move down if broken (Level 1). If the currency breaks and moves away from Level 1, then look for it to test Level 2. We’ll watch the opening of the session through the New York session for developments.
Watch your announcements and be sure to apply your money management.
Happy trading!



Following the NZD/JPY Trend
Posted on January 28, 2009 at 2:02 in Uncategorized by Ross Yamashita2 Comments »

Greetings.
Let’s pull up the NZD/JPY and see where we’ve gone.
As you can see, the currency is starting to channel - making a potential triangle formation.
The daily charts are showing a minor retracement to the upside before heading back down.
This pair can move a lot so watch for a false break of the lower trend line. If it breaks and goes lower than the invalidation line, then look for a retest of the low 1/21/09.
The Asian markets are winding down and we’re about an hour before the opening of the European markets.
Check the economic calendar on FX Street and be sure to use your stops and apply your money management.
Good luck and have a great day of trading.

Tags: Elliott Wave, Japanese Yen, NZD/JPY, Pro Pipper Trading, Ross Yamashita


NZD/JPY Continuation
Posted on January 26, 2009 at 0:04 in Uncategorized by Ross YamashitaNo Comments »

Hello.
Welcome back from the weekend and another week of trading.
Let’s bring back something we looked at last week on the NZD/JPY.
We said that there was a potential bottom on the daily chart and now we’re headed up into a correction. We looked at the hourly chart and drew in a nice trend line where the currency is currently hovering around.
Look for a potential continued move up. We are midway through the Asian session so you may see some pushes down lower but look for the overall short term trend to be bullish.
Remember that this pair moves fast so be sure to put your stops in and apply your money management.
Good luck.

Tags: Japanese Yen, NZD/JPY, Pro Pipper Trading, Ross Yamashita


EUR/USD Correction?
Posted on January 22, 2009 at 0:03 in Uncategorized by Ross YamashitaNo Comments »

Greetings.
Let’s pull up the EUR/USD hourly chart. Although the long term trend is still down, it looks as if we may get a retracement in the market.
The daily EUR/USD chart indicates we hit a potential low on 1/21/09 and am now going to head up for a retracement.
A good way to stay safe while doing your research is to wait until the currency pair crosses the upper black line. If it crosses the line and breaks away, look for a continued movement up.
We’re about 3 hours before the opening of the European markets so we may see some low volume spikes here and there, but wait for the European session to open and watch for a break of the top line.
As always, apply your money management and use your stops.
Good luck.

Tags: Elliott Wave, EURUSD, Pro Pipper Trading


Snapshot - NZD/JPY
Posted on January 20, 2009 at 1:30 in Uncategorized by Ross YamashitaNo Comments »

Hello.
Because we posted some of the majors on our website, let’s look at another potential trading opportunity.
We’ve been watching the NZD/JPY for a while now and the currency keeps creeping further and further down.
As you can see by the last candle in the chart, the bears seem to keep pushing the market down. Watch for a break of the trend line we drew in.
This pair does move quickly and can move hundreds of pips very quickly so be sure to put your stops in and apply your money management.
Good luck.



EUR/USD Snapshot
Posted on January 15, 2009 at 1:37 in Uncategorized by Ross YamashitaNo Comments »

Hello.
It seems the screen capture software we’re currently using isn’t working out. We’ve tried for two days now and it may be time to look for another program. But, just like our time in the markets, we’re determined so we’ll get it done one way or the other.
Just a quick entry pre-European opening. The daily charts show the general trend is down and we potentially have a lot of room to play with.
Bringing it down to an hourly chart, we have two trend lines and can see the trend is down. On the upside, watch for a break and strong move up across the top trend line (highlighted yellow area). With the way the market is consolodating and moving, don’t be fooled by being “wicked” out. If it does move up, next point to look for are 1.3338.
On the downside, watch for a break of the black line (low from 1/14). A strong break would be a nice potential move down.
We’ll continue to monitor the markets and update everyone when the market develops. Be sure to watch your economic calendar and apply your money management.
Good luck and we’ll see everyone again shortly.



2009 Trader of the Year Contest
Posted on January 13, 2009 at 13:21 in Uncategorized by Ross YamashitaNo Comments »

Hello.
Also, if you haven’t seen it on FX Street yet, they are coming out with the Trader of the Year contest for the third year running.
It’ll be interesting to see what returns contestants get this year. Last year, we netted more than 30% on our demo account - which, if it was part of a fund, would be outstanding.
We were ranked in the top 100 for a couple weeks but fell out of the top 100 as people starting gaining outageous returns.
Nonetheless, we had a great time trading in the contest and am looking forward to it again. Reading some of the forum posts from last year, I know many traders want it to be a live trading account - since most people trade live accounts very differently than demo accounts. We’ll wait to see what happens.
Either way, we hope to see all of you in the contest as well.
To read the press release - click here.


Mid-day EUR/USD
Posted on January 13, 2009 at 13:11 in Uncategorized by Ross YamashitaNo Comments »

The EUR continues to slide down against the dollar. Mid-day through the New York session, look for the pair to slowly bounce up and down but have a general downward move.
We also broke the 1.3308 low, signaling that we’re looking at a good, continued downtrend.
We’ll post a full analysis again before the opening of the European session tomorrow.
Good luck.


« Newer posts – Older posts »

hefeiddd

Posted on January 9, 2009 at 2:11 in Uncategorized by Ross YamashitaNo Comments »
Hello.
With the NFP coming out, we’ve got to really be on our “A” game.
First, the general consensus is that the numbers are going to be bad - but how bad will they be? Even with the holiday hype late last year, analysts are still favoring a massive cut in employment for the month.
Technically speaking, we need to look at the longer term and hourly charts. Looking at the attached chart, I drew in a trendline but the main line to be watched is the black line. We’re still waiting to see if that was indeed a top to the retracement.
As with all NFP’s, be sure to use your money management, put your stops in and watch your trades. We will hopefully get a better overall picture of the pair after the announcement. Until the announcement, do your research, get your trading plan together and get some rest so you’ll be ready. Good luck.


USD/JPY Update
Posted on January 7, 2009 at 2:50 in Uncategorized by Ross YamashitaNo Comments »

Greetings.

Let’s take a look at the USD/JPY. As you can see on our hourly chart, we hit a top and am now stuck in a triangle.
Remembering to do your research on longer and shorter time frames as well, here is a potential set up for some pip action.
There are two triggers on both the buy and sell side (the first trigger being more risky). If the pair moves up and passes the first line, look for a potential continued movement up and to test the top. If it breaks the top blue line, then look for a strong move up.
Conversely, if the pair crosses the first red line, then look for a continued move down to the second red line. If the pair breaks the second red line, look for a nice, continued movement down.
At this point, it’s a waiting game to see what unfolds. In the meantime, be sure to check the economic calendar and do your research on other time frames.
Also, just a quick note about the upcoming features of ‘The Trader’s Edge’ - we will be adding audio/video recordings, which will hopefully help walk you through the process.
We’re looking forward to 2009 - for trading and growing - so if you haven’t done so already, be sure to get on our mailing list as we will slowly start implementing more updates.
Good luck and remember to apply your money management when trading. Capital preservation is key.

EUR/USD Wraps 2008
Posted on December 31, 2008 at 17:20 in Uncategorized by Ross YamashitaNo Comments »

Hello everyone!
We just wanted to round up the year end of 2008 and look forward to what’s up for 2009.
As expected, we’ve seen some wavy moves on the EUR/USD as trader’s around the world are looking to celebrate the new years celebration.

Let’s wrap up ‘08 with the EUR/USD - 5 minute chart. The trend line on top was drawn on an hourly chart. As you can see, we are slowly creeping up - however, late December is always a tricky time to diagnose market sentiment.
On the technical side, look for a break of the two trend lines. If it breaks the bottom trend line, look for it to continue going down to the low earlier today. If it heads up past the upper trendline, look for it to test the top trendline (area marked in yellow).
Remember, if for some reason you decide to place a trade, be sure to use your stops and apply your money management. However, at this point, it’s probably better to have fun tonight with friends and family and then we’ll take a look at the markets in ‘09.
We still have a couple hours to wish all our friends in Europe a Happy New Year! We hope that 2009 will be a great year and a year for people to acheieve their trading goals.
Tags: Euro, Pro Pipper Trading, Ross Yamashita


Bottom on the NZD/JPY?
Posted on December 27, 2008 at 20:45 in Uncategorized by Ross YamashitaNo Comments »

Hello. After a year long down trend on the NZD/JPY, have we finally seen a bottom?
Welcome back to the last trading week of 2008! Let’s pull up a chart from one of our favorite currency pairs - the NZD/JPY.
We’ve had a pretty good down trend starting from early 2008 and the question is - did we have a bottom on 12/5?
This may have set the stage for this pair in 2009. If the pair breaks the low, look for a continued down trend and there some trend lines that can be drawn in to potentially determine how much further this pair can go.
On the smaller scale, watch to see if the pair breaks the high of 12/18. If it breaks, look for a continued bullish movement and from there, we’ll be able to potentially guage the strength of the movement.
This pair can move very quickly in a very short amount of time so utilize your stops and apply your money management.
As we move into 2009, look for more from ‘The Trader’s Edge’ from Pro Pipper Trading. Many readers have requested videos and we plan on uploading short videos of our analysis - which will hopefully be a great tool for helping people learn.
Until next time, we hope you have a great day of trading.



AUD/USD - What is the market doing?
Posted on December 23, 2008 at 3:29 in Uncategorized by Ross YamashitaNo Comments »

Hello everyone.
We hope everyone had a great weekend. Let’s check in on our friends from down under and pull up the AUD/USD.
We looked at the longer term charts to get the overall picture and have focussed in on the 30 minute chart.
As you can see, we are starting to consolodate and move sideways - which means that a breakout is coming soon. We have drawn trendlines that show a potential triangle forming.
If the pair breaks the bottom black line, then look for it to head down and test the low from 12/18. If the pair breaks the top of the triangle and the high from 12/22), look for it to potenially re-test the high from 12/18, If it breaks that high, then look for continued bullish sentiment until we begin to see a slowing of the trend.
Good luck and be sure to utilize your own money management.

Tags: Aussie Dollar, Pro Pipper Trading, Ross Yashita


GBP/JPY Bottom?
Posted on December 19, 2008 at 3:01 in Uncategorized by Ross YamashitaNo Comments »

Hello.
Taking a break from the EUR/USD, let’s take a look at the GBP/JPY.
The first screen capture is of the daily chart. We labeled the chart with our count of the longer-term movement. Have we completed a Wave 3 bottom on 12/12?
We turn to the hourly chart and see a potential triangle forming. If it breaks the bottom trend line, it will likely go down and test the 12/12 low again. If it breaks that low, then we know we are in a continuation of the down trend.
If the pair heads up and breaks the upper trend line, then we’ll wait and see if it breaks the high of 12/16.
Keep in mind this pair moves very quickly in a short amount of time. If you’re not used to trading this pair, applying your own money management and stops are necessary to protect you from whipsaws.


On a side note, I’d also like to wish my wife a Happy Birthday. Her birthday is actually on December 20 (how convenient when the markets are closed) so it’ll be a fun time for us and the family.
Don’t forget - you need to take the time to rejuvinate yourself so you’re fresh for trading.
Good luck and if we don’t post again before the weekend, have a safe and happy weekend!
Tags: Pound, Pro Pipper Trading, Ross Yamashita, Yen


EUR/USD - Is there a break in sight?
Posted on December 18, 2008 at 0:59 in Uncategorized by Ross YamashitaNo Comments »

Hello.
We saw some fireworks today across the majors as the EUR/USD spiked almost 500 pips for the day. This week alone has seen a 1000+ pip movement in the EUR/USD.
The uptend fiddled around the 50% Fibo line from the top starting 7/15/08 and the bulls took the pair and ran with it.
Watch for some pullback and retracements as the European session opens for the day but look for the pair to potentially hit the 61.8% Fibo level up in the 1.4621 area. We also can look at smaller time frames to help us understand the inner workings of the current wave.
When the timing is right, we will look for potential tops and potential turning points to explore - so be sure to keep checking back with us on ‘The Trader’s Edge’.
In the meantime, apply your money management and use your stop loss.
Good luck.



Has the USD/CHF seen a top?
Posted on December 16, 2008 at 2:35 in Uncategorized by Ross YamashitaNo Comments »

Have we seen a top on the USD/CHF?
We have shown our count of the USD/CHF and from the current movement, it seems there was a potential top on 11/21.
The pair has since broke the low of 11/25 and is continuing to head down. We will continue to monitor this and update everyone as it unfolds.
Remember that as we get closer to the end of December, you need to trade with extra caution as volume is low - which may potentially cause very erratic and unexpected movements and spikes. Monitor your trades and apply your money management and put in your stop losses.
Although we don’t like to look too far ahead, we’re very excited for the new year! If you haven’t already subscribed to ‘The Trader’s Edge’ newsletter - be sure to do so now so you’ll be notified when we update our blog.
Good luck!



AUD/USD - Friends From Down Under
Posted on December 12, 2008 at 0:58 in Uncategorized by Ross YamashitaNo Comments »

Hello everyone.
As you can see, we have pulled up a AUD/USD Daily chart. We can see a nice top back in July/August and a nice, trending movement downward.
We have labelled the charts with our count of this momement. You can see wave “B” tested the bottom (labelled “3″) but did not break it.
Watch the current daily candle to close above the trend line to ensure its not a false breakout. If it holds above the trend line, watch for the current movement to remain somewhat bullish as we finish off the C wave and then continue back down for Wave 5.
Again, be sure to use your stops as we move closer to the holidays. Low volumes may create erratic and unexpected movements so don’t get caught off guard.
Good luck and if we hope everyone has a happy and restful weekend.



EUR/USD Zone
Posted on December 10, 2008 at 3:04 in Uncategorized by Ross YamashitaNo Comments »

Hello everyone.
We hope everyone had a great NFP trading day and a restful weekend. We’re back and let’s take a look at the EUR/USD.
Two key prices remain in effect to see where the Euro is heading. Our larger term count shows the low on 10/28 to be the completion of Wave 3 on the Daily chart. To determine this, we need to watch two levels.
1.3296 on the upside and 1.2331 on the downside.
If the pair moves above the 1.3296 level, look for continued movement up and would potentially be the 3rd wave of the retracement.
The triangle formation would suggest a down movement, however, shorter time frames suggest there is more room for potential up movement.
It is important to keep in mind that the closer we move to the holidays, the less volume may come into play and pairs may be very erratic with the low volume. Be sure to use your money management and trade with a stop.
Good luck and we’ll see everyone again tomorrow.

Tags: Euro, Pro Pipper Trading, Ross Yamashita


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hefeiddd

Posted on December 3, 2008 at 1:30 in Uncategorized by Ross YamashitaNo Comments »
Hello everyone.
As we continue to monitor the majors, let’s take a look at the EUR/NZD.
We saw a nice movement up and then a retracement. The retracement came close to the 38.2% Fibo level but never hit it. It is now near the top and a little ways from the high of 11/25 (2.4080). If it strongly breaks this level, look for a potential upward movement.
Keep in mind there are a lot of risks trading this pair. This pair can move a lot in a short time frame and you could get caught on the wrong side, which will move against you very quickly. Also, keep in mind the spread on this pair is astronomical at best - sometimes as high as 25 pips and up, depending on who you trade through. So, you’ll really have to evaluate your Risk vs. Reward and your money management. Also, check for economic announcements that could affect this pair.
Good luck with trading and be sure to keep checking back on FX Street for the latest data and analysis on the upcoming NFP.



Weekly Warm Up
Posted on December 1, 2008 at 1:25 in Uncategorized by Ross YamashitaNo Comments »

Hello and welcome back.


Even though the end of the year is near, there is still a lot of room for movement amongst the majors – starting this week with a plethora of announcements, including interest rates amongst four central banks and the US NFP on Friday, December 5.


From early looks, it seems the EUR/USD is forming a triangle in what is potentially the Wave 4 on the Daily charts. We will monitor and update everyone.


As we get closer to the NFP, we’ll also get a better idea of the consensus and plan our course of action from there.




Tags: Pro Pipper Trading, Ross Yamashita

EUR/USD • US Celebrates Thanksgiving
Posted on November 26, 2008 at 20:22 in Uncategorized by Ross YamashitaNo Comments »

Hello everyone.
The EUR/USD bounced back up from hitting a low of 1.2817 on the EUR/USD and has settled around the 38.2 Fibonacci level of the shorter-term down trend.
If you’ve looked at the EUR/USD Daily chart recently, you may have noticed a nice pattern forming. The graph shows our count of the movement. But, if this count is indeed correct, are we done with Wave 4? The yellow shaded box is broken down in our next chart in an hourly time frame.

We then focus in on the highlighted region and look at it more closely.

Here we have labelled potential break points. Because of the US Thanksgiving holiday, watch for low volume and potential erratic movements.

From everyone at Pro Pipper Trading, we’d like to wish everyone in the US a happy and safe Thanksgiving holiday. We’ll be back with our first outlook on the weeks ahead and the next US employment data.


USD/JPY Basics
Posted on November 21, 2008 at 3:40 in Uncategorized by Ross YamashitaNo Comments »

Hello everyone.
Let’s go back to some basics with our friend - trendlines. Let’s take a look at the hourly chart on the USD/JPY.

Although you can’t see it, we had a triangle forming and you saw that once it broke the bottom triangle trendline, it went down, came back up to almost the same level and then dropped.
Now, we are approaching another area of indecision. We’ll watch this pair as it approaches the trendline in the yellow shaded area.
The pair may go up to the trendline and keep going, it may hit the trend line and reverse back down or it may not hit the line at all. This gives us a potential area where the currency may hit so we know what to potentially watch for.
Remember, when you are trading to always apply your own money management and risk vs. reward ratios.
Heading into a short week for the U.S. markets due to the Thanksgiving holiday, there will be less volume and you may witness more volatile movements.
Good luck and if we want to wish everyone a happy and safe weekend.
Tags: Pro Pipper Trading, Ross Yamashita, USDJPY, Yen


EUR/USD and the Economic Calendar
Posted on November 19, 2008 at 3:02 in Uncategorized by Ross YamashitaNo Comments »

Hello.
Today will be a busy day as we have the CoE, CPI and FOMC Minutes coming out.
Let’s take a look at the EUR/USD. As you can see, the pair has been pretty stagnant right before the opening hours of the European session.
We drew in a couple trend lines and we will wait and see what unfolds from the day’s trading and the reports coming out later on today.
Initially, it shows that the EUR/USD will potentially  continue its downtrend, however, we’ll need to wait and see what unfolds. A strong break of either line may indicate a short-term breakout.
Good luck and remember to use your own money management and Risk vs. Reward ratio when placing any trade.
If you’d like more detailed analysis on the reports coming out, be sure to visit FXStreet.com.

Tags: Euro, EURUSD, Pro Pipper Trading, Ross Yamashita


EUR/AUD Analysis
Posted on November 14, 2008 at 2:42 in Uncategorized by Ross YamashitaNo Comments »

Hello everyone.
Let’s take a look at the EUR/AUD. As you can see, we drew a Fibo line for the larger trend high from October 27. As you can see, the pair tested the 50% Fibo line numerous times, giving indcations the bears may be gaining some steam back.

It is also our opinion that the November 12 high was the completion of a Wave 2, meaning a 3 wave movement down on the EUR/AUD.
Look for a potential downturn from the current market position. If the pair breaks the 50% Fibo barrier moving up, then look for the next Fibo line.
Good luck with your trading and alwys be sure to apply your own money management to each and every trade you may potentially trade.


USD/CAD Outlook
Posted on November 10, 2008 at 0:34 in Uncategorized by Ross YamashitaNo Comments »

Hello. We hope everyone had a nice and restfull weekend.
This is our wave count for the USD/CAD. As you can see, our count shows we are on the 3rd wave of a Zig Zag (ZZ) movement down. We completed the first wave (of the ZZ Wave 3) as denoted by the “1″. After that, we saw the pair go back up to the 61.8 Fibonacci level from the high at Wave 2 and the low of Wave 1.

Have we completed Wave 2?
Right now, we’re in a watch zone. If the pair breaks the top of the highlighted box, we potentially look for a buy. If the pair breaks the bottom of the box (equal to the low of Wave 1), then we potentially look for a sell.
Remember to always consider your own personal risk and apply your money management techniques when trading.
Good luck and we’ll see everyone shortly.
Tags: Pro Pipper Trading, Ross Yamashita, USDCAD


GBP/JPY Analysis
Posted on November 5, 2008 at 4:08 in Uncategorized by Ross YamashitaNo Comments »

Hello everyone! It’s great to see everyone again!
Let’s ease back into the swing of things and take a look at the GBP/JPY - 30 minute chart.

Just a  a little shorter time frame then what we’re used to dealing with but it’ll be fine. As you can see from our drawing, we have a strong barrier. Our analysis actually shows the pair potentially testing this barrier again. If it breaks the barrier and closes well above the line, then look for an increased move up.
Be sure to always use your money managemnt techniques when trading and we’ll see everyone again shortly.


AUD/CAD Trade Update - What’s the magic formula?
Posted on October 23, 2008 at 3:17 in Uncategorized by Ross YamashitaNo Comments »

Greetings.
This chart should look very familiar to you as this was the one I put up yesterday. As I have mentioned in the past, when you combine a good mixture of technicals together and they all flow together, you get some pretty high probability trades.

I knew I was looking for a ZZ Wave 3. I also had a contracting triangle which is great for showing a continuation of the trend. So, even if my count was wrong, I knew i had a better probable chance of being correct because I matched it up with a triangle. If you entered at the market price shown on the chart 0.8239, you’d be up more than 150 pips as current price is about 0.8406.
The reason for this post is not to toot my horn about being correct. I can give you plenty of trades throughout my career where I was completely wrong. The point here is that I used two types of analysis (Elliott Wave and a Contracting Triangle) to increase my probability that this trade was correct. There is no one magic formula to the markets, however, you can increase your probability of being correct. Keep researching, develop a trading plan and stick with it, always remembering this is a dynamic market and you must change with the times.
We do have a few more of these similar patterns forming in the market right now. They are not complete but when they do arise, I will be sure to post them.
Good luck and we’ll see everyone again shortly.

Tags: Aussie Dollar, Canadian Dollar, Pro Pipper Trading, Ross Yamashita


AUD/CAD Trade Set Up
Posted on October 22, 2008 at 3:21 in Uncategorized by Ross YamashitaNo Comments »

Hello.
We have a shorter term set up on the AUD/CAD pair. Although not our idea of the ideal ZZ, we have a potential ZZ forming right now. Again, this is not my ideal formation due to the Wave 2 is must shorter (time wise) than Wave 1. Does that invalidate our forecast? No - but that is definitely something to keep an eye out for.

We potentially also have a triangle forming now, which also indicates that it is conituing to go up.
We have 3 stop prices here in case the trade goes against us.
Stop 1 - 0.8158 (where the bottom line and the next candle intersect)
Stop 2 - 0.8147 (low of 10/21/08 at 21:00)
Stop 3 - 0.8128 (this would also serve as our invalidation point).
Be sure to check for any announcements/news that may effect this pair.
Good luck.


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hefeiddd

Posted on October 21, 2008 at 0:58 in Uncategorized by Ross YamashitaNo Comments »
Hello everyone.
We actually have a trade set up on the CHF/JPY hourly chart. This will be a good example of putting some elements together to form a trade set up.
First off, we’re in the 3rd wave of a Zig Zag (ZZ), which is one of the best waves to trade with. We’re also approaching a nice trendline. If we see a nice break of this trendline, look for a nice movement down.

Be sure to watch the news announcements. This is rigth between the two markets (Japan closing and Europe opening). As always, use your money management when taking any trade.
Good luck.
Tags: Elliott Wave, Pro Pipper Trading, Ross Yamashita

AUD/JPY Trade Set Up
Posted on October 16, 2008 at 3:27 in Uncategorized by Ross YamashitaNo Comments »

Hello everyone.
We have a potentially nice trade set up in the AUD/JPY. Although this is not a considered a major pair, there is still a great deal of potential profits to be made.
As you can see, we have a ZZ formation heading up. We have a complete Wave 2 and am heading up into a Wave 3.

We will continue to keep scanning the charts and post if anything comes up. Remember to use your money management when executing any trade.
Thanks again.
Tags: Elliott Wave, Pro Pipper Trading

The EUR Outlook
Posted on October 9, 2008 at 1:21 in Uncategorized by Ross YamashitaNo Comments »

Hello everyone!
The FX markets, as a whole, has not given us a great trade set up so let’s look at the EUR/USD. This will be more of an analysis than a trade set-up or call.

Our initial scan indicated that we are moving up to complete a correction from the larger move downword. Take a look at the two lines. Look for a strong break of either of these two lines to enter your trade.
Good luck and we’ll see you again shortly.
Tags: Add new tag, Elliott Wave, Euro, Pro Pipper Trading


Bailout Plan Follow-up/ECB & NFP Preview
Posted on October 1, 2008 at 22:22 in Uncategorized by Ross YamashitaNo Comments »

The senate has approved the Bailout Plan by a landslide vote.
The EUR/USD has since bounced back from hitting the low of 1.3929 and seems the bears are gaining some of the momentum back. The GBP/USD looks very similar as we seem to be moving steadily up from the lows.
To find out what happens next for the U.S. Bailout Bill, read FX Street’s Marina Schiaffino and Mauricio Carrillo’s report about it.
We now turn our attention to the ECB rate decision set for Thursday. Most analysts predict that the ECB will hold borrowing costs at 4.25%. After that, of course, we have the U.S. Non-Farm Payroll numbers.
Be sure to trade the NFP live with FX Street’s Wayne McDonell. For more information, click here.
Tags: Bailout Plan, Pro Pipper Trading, US Dollar


The EUR/USD Elevator - Going Up or Down?
Posted on September 25, 2008 at 2:35 in Uncategorized by Ross YamashitaNo Comments »

Greetings.
The EUR/USD is starting to channel off and we have a couple alternate counts for where its headed. Of course, one says it’s going up and one says it’s going down.
I have drawn in a trend line and two high/low points of the current channel. When it starts going sideways, look for a nice breakout.
Look for the pair to continue heading up. Confirmation of a long trade comes when it closes above the top black line. The good thing about this is that you’ll know fairly quickly which forecast to go with. Be sure to check for any major news announcements.

Good Luck!


USD/CHF Long-Term Trade
Posted on September 23, 2008 at 0:42 in Uncategorized by Ross YamashitaNo Comments »

Hello everyone.
We hope everyone had a nice weekend. I’m sure with all the financial news going on throughout the U.S. at this time, everything is in a shake up.

We have a longer (daily) term trade set up. We are starting a Wave 3 Impulse down. Look for the pair, in the longer-term, head down towards the .9000 and below. If it goes above the Wave 2, then that will invalidate this forecast.
We’ll continue to scan the markets and follow with the news to bring you any more potential trade set-ups.
Good luck.
Tags: Elliott Wave, Forecasts, Pro Pipper Trading


AUD/CAD Trade
Posted on September 17, 2008 at 3:10 in Uncategorized by Ross YamashitaNo Comments »

Hello everyone.
We’ve got a trade set-up in multiple time frames showing a sell in the AUD/CAD. We’re in a larger wave ZZ pattern and have potenially completed the retracement with the high of September 16. If it goes above this point, disregard this forecast.
Good luck and we’ll see everyone again shortly.



EUR/USD Trade Set-Up
Posted on September 16, 2008 at 1:21 in Uncategorized by Ross Yamashita2 Comments »

Greetings. We hope everyone enjoyed their weekend. For those of you that attended the Forex Trading Expo in Las Vegas, I hope you had a good time. Perhaps next year you will attend one of my seminars or group discussions at the expo. I know I will soon see all of you at an upcoming ITC from FX Street.
Let’s take a look at the EUR/USD. Let me first state that this is a risky set-up (of course, all trading set-ups are in some way ‘risky’). However, this does show a good example of utilizing your Risk vs. Reward Ratio.

One Elliott Wave count is looking at a Wave 3 Impulse move down. The high of 9/15/08 serves as the invalidation point, as that is the completion of Wave 2 - put your stop right above there. If this forecast is correct, look for the pair to head down below Wave 1, potentially to the 1.3700 area.
Again, this is a RISKIER set-up than I would prefer when trading but it is a valid count. Proceed with caution and utilize your money management techniques.
Good luck.
Tags: Elliott Wave, EURUSD, Pro Pipper Trading, Ross Yamashita


What’s next for the Euro?
Posted on September 12, 2008 at 2:55 in Uncategorized by Ross Yamashita2 Comments »

Hello everyone.
If you remember, we said the EUR/USD was heading down to 1.1000. We’ve had a good move down thus far and now we’re in a bit of a retracement. The longer term trend is still down.
I drew in a trend line and did some Fibonacci analysis and found a potential turning point at 1.4220.

So, the question is, do we trade against the overall trend? We’ve all been taught - the trend is your friend. Well, the answer depends on your risk tolerance and money management. Also, be sure to check out the other expert bloggers on FX Street.
Good luck and happy trading.
Tags: Dollar, Euro, Pro Pipper Trading, Ross Yamashita


USD - Long term buy against the Canadian?
Posted on September 9, 2008 at 7:54 in Uncategorized by Ross YamashitaNo Comments »

Hello everyone.
We hope everyone had a restful weekend after the NFP.

Our scan has brought us to the USD/CAD Daily charts. As you can see, we have completed the larger term waves 1 and 2. To verify internal waves and if this wave count is correct, we would analyze the same time period in a smaller time frame (usually hourly).
Also, to help portray the uptrend, wait for two (2) consecutive candles to close strongly above the Wave 1 price point.
As always, check the economic calendar for any announcements coming up and uitilize your money management techniques.
Good luck.


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hefeiddd

Posted on September 5, 2008 at 8:02 in Uncategorized by Ross Yamashita2 Comments »
Hello everyone.
With the non-farm payroll coming at us in a couple of hours, this is where we look for trade set-ups to take, once we hear what the actual numbers are and the market’s reaction to the numbers.
In this trade set-up, we actually scanned the daily charts first and then broke it down into the hourly charts.

We have completed a Wave 1 and 2 and am in the process of a Wave 3. Remember, the 3rd Wave of an Impulse must be impulsive. We completed wave “i” and am now forming wave “ii”.
Depending on the numbers and market’s reaction, look for a surge down and then an overall reversal back up.
Be sure to read Pierre Charlebois’s blog on how the NFP figures will affect the USD and steps to take to trade during the NFP.
We wish everyone happy trading during the NFP.

EUR/CAD Trade Set Up
Posted on September 4, 2008 at 8:15 in Uncategorized by Ross YamashitaNo Comments »

Hello everyone,
We have a major announcement in the EUR coming out later on today (Central Bank Rate Decision) so we are in limbo until that comes out.
Our scan of the EUR/CAD shows 2 potential outcomes. This is what we do when there are no clear trades to be taken and we have a big announcement coming up.
If that’s something you don’t like to hear, then I understand and visit us again shortly  (most likely tomorrow after the market settles) for some clear trades. However, we do not post trades (or live trade) just to trade. To do that would be foolish. Sometimes, trading is a waiting game - but don’t fret - you’ll get a chance to trade in the near future.

So, knowing that we have an announcement coming up, we do our analysis. We have a ZZ wave. We see a pretty clear movement down to complete Wave 1. From here, this is where our 2 possibilities arise.
The move up could be a complete Wave 2 move (meaning we’re in a Wave 3 down) and you’ll want to look for the pair to cross the “b” low and keep heading south. If the pair closes above the upper trend line, then we can assume that the “red” analysis is correct and we’re going in an upward movement to complete the C wave (and Wave 2 of bigger ZZ wave).
I know most of us just want to know the trade and get into the market, however, at times you must resist that urge. In trading, you’ll only spend 10% of your time in the markets. The other 90% of the time should be dedicated to analysis and times like this to see what the market gives us.
Good luck and we’ll see everyone again shortly.

The Business Plan of the GBP/JPY
Posted on August 29, 2008 at 7:36 in Uncategorized by Ross Yamashita1 Comment »

Hello everyone.
If you look back, we had entered a sell in the GBP/JPY at 204.56. The current market price is 199.90.
Look for a continued down movement and a target area below 190.00.

So, what do you do after your trade has moved heavily in your favor? Do you get out? Do you just wake up and if you feel like getting out that day, you do? Pierre Charlebois, another FX Street blogger, says that we should treat trading like a business and has written a fascinating article about it. Click here to read it.
And, as we always promote, we want everyone to have a nice, extended weekend for those of us in the United States. Take this extra time to spend with your family and loved ones.
Good luck and we’ll see everyone next week.


EUR/USD Wave Count
Posted on August 26, 2008 at 9:43 in Uncategorized by Ross YamashitaNo Comments »

Hello everyone.
Here is a great set up in the EUR/USD in the hourly chart.
We know from our study of Elliott Wave, Wave 3 of an Impulse must be an impulsive. If you look at the larger wave, you see that we started in early August and completed Wave 1 and 2 and am now headed down into Wave 3. A study of Wave 3 shows that we have an impulsive move.

This goes nice with our longer term weekly EUR/USD forecast we put out about a week ago.
Good luck with your trading and we’ll see everyone again shortly.


GBP/JPY Continuation
Posted on August 22, 2008 at 8:36 in Uncategorized by Ross YamashitaNo Comments »

Hello Vytas.
Thanks for the question. I misread your question when doing a screen capture of the chart but since I did it, I’m going to upload it just for added visual.
Since we’ve drawn the trend lines and have done the analysis on the daily charts, we would want to enter the trade off of the daily charts.
We actually had a perfect example of how it the pair "wicked" below the line but did not close below the line - therefore not entering the market in a short. A lot of times you’ll also see the close right on (or just below) the line. If that happens, we wait to pull the trigger as well.

If you’re already in the trade, like we are, then just continue to watch this. Review the economic calendar for any news/announcements that may effect this pair.
Good luck and if we don’t post again, then we hope everyone has a wonderful and relaxing weekend.


EUR/USD Long Term
Posted on August 21, 2008 at 10:45 in Uncategorized by Ross YamashitaNo Comments »

Hello everyone.
We had a comment by St_Fx asking about a EUR/USD or GBP/USD analysis.
First off, I appreciate the comment and correspondance and I have attached a long term analysis for the EUR/USD.
Taking a weekly chart, I have the EUR/USD (in the longer term) coming down to the 1.3500 - 1.3000 area.

Although it’s not shown in the chart, we’ve went back to the start of the bull trend in 2002 and have seen a good movement up from then. Our analysis shows that this wave has topped out with the recent highs and we’ll see a retracement.
Keep in mind, this is a longer term forecast so be sure to analyze the time frame you trade in. I will do a little more analysis on this and will be able to come up with my exact price (to the pip) my forecast says the pair will hit.
Until then, happy trading and we’ll see everyone again shortly.


GBP/JPY Update
Posted on August 21, 2008 at 8:57 in Uncategorized by Ross Yamashita2 Comments »

Hello.
Wanted to post an update on a trade we posted earlier this week.
If it breaks the line on the chart, then look for a sell. By "break" - I mean the candle closes below the line. Sometimes it’ll just wick under the line but be patient and wait for it to close.

Good luck.


The Big Mover - GBP/JPY
Posted on August 19, 2008 at 7:09 in Uncategorized by Ross Yamashita2 Comments »

Hello Everyone!
First off, I want to thank everyone that expressed their love and support of my daughter. She is truly a gift.
It’s good to be back and I wanted to take a look at the GBP/JPY daily chart. For those of you that trade this pair, you know this is a very fast moving pair and daily movements in this pair can be have some very big moves.

We are in a 3rd wave down of a ZZ. The trend line drawn is a longer term trend line. Look for the pair to potentially move up to to test the trend line, even possibly wicking above the line. Failure to break the line is confirmation of the longer term down trend. If the pair goes above the end of the 2nd wave, then this forecast is invalidated.
During my short summer break, I have been outlaying some good fundamentals for Elliott Wave analysis that I will be sharing with all of you. When you combine Elliott Wave with both technical and fundamental analysis, you’ve got a pretty good combination. Look for that shortly.
Good luck with your trading and we will see everyone again very shortly.


Short Summer Break
Posted on August 4, 2008 at 10:41 in Uncategorized by Ross YamashitaNo Comments »

Hello everyone.
First off, I would like to thank everyone for their nice comments and emails regarding the birth of my daughter. As I mentioned in the comments section, it’s truly wonderful to have such a supportive group of people.
I just wanted to inform everyone that I will be taking a short break from posting blogs (and the markets) to spend some time with her. I will be back sometime next week and look forward to continuing what we have started here on FX Street.
For those of you trading this week - I hope you have a profitable week of trading.
Thank you.


The Newest Addition to Pro Pipper Family
Posted on July 31, 2008 at 8:13 in Uncategorized by Ross Yamashita8 Comments »


I want to welcome the newest member of the Pro Pipper and FX Street family, my daughter, Kaylee.
She was born on July 30 in the morning.


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hefeiddd

Posted on July 30, 2008 at 8:22 in Uncategorized by Ross YamashitaNo Comments »
Hello.
Carlos had a comment about the analysis we put out yesterday and I’ve outlined the trend lines he pointed out. We had to move up to a daily chart and the prices go back to 2007.
Carlos is right and the chart shows we are in a tight zone here and we’ll have to wait and see what unfolds. If you remember from my analysis yesteday, I said a more conservative trader would wait until it comes down to the bottom trend line to go long.

For those of you that have been trading the markets, you know that at an instance notice, you may have to change your mind pretty quick. What I would do if I was trading this is wait until it comes down towards the second line and then re-analyze the charts to see where Elliott, as well as my other indicators, tell me the highest probability on which way the market will go.
Thanks for the comment Carlos. I apologize for the delay in my response but I’m still getting used to "blogging" and all it’s features.
Our pre-European session scan has brought up a couple of potential trades. I will need to analyze them further and if I see anything, I will post on my blog.
If no trade comes up, I am going to post something I did on avoiding the Pitcher’s mentality.
Thanks again for the comments and we’ll see everyone again shortly.

GBP/JPY Trade Analysis
Posted on July 29, 2008 at 10:46 in Uncategorized by Ross Yamashita2 Comments »

Greetings everyone.
We hope everyone had a nice and relaxing weekend. We did and now we’re back in the saddle for another trading week.
We’ve come quite a long ways in a very short amount of time and I’m glad you’re sticking with it.
Let’s take a look at the GBP/JPY. In our first chart, we give you an extended view of the pair since mid July. You can see a nice trend line has been drawn in our charts.

In our second screen capture, we zoom in on the last part of the chart, which came across our scan of the charts as a ZZ wave formation.

The general trend of the pair is up. So, taking that into consideration, look for a buy entry. Look for the market to head up or come down to touch the trend line before moving back up. It may spike a little below the trend line. Aggressive traders would get into a buy at market price. More conservative traders would put a buy order in a short distance above the trend line and put the stop below the trend line. If the pair goes past the July 24 low, then that would invalidate the forecast.
Be sure to check your economic calendar for any major announcements.
Good luck.

USD/JPY
Posted on July 25, 2008 at 7:17 in Uncategorized by Ross YamashitaNo Comments »

Hello.
Here is a look at the USD/JPY and will be more of an analysis than a signal.
Our long term forecast shows the USD/JPY is in an upward trend - and we all know that we never trade against the trend. Pulling up an hourly chart, the yellow area represents the potential area the currency will go. I also included a trend line with a MacD as an indicator.
We see the pair going up while the MacD is doing the opposite (look at lines).

If you’re currently in a sell trade, I would put my stop right above the trend line with the invalidation point right at the high of July 23. If you’re currently in a buy, depending on your money management and entry, I would put my stop around the 106.00 area.
Good luck and be sure to always use your money management when trading.
Have a nice and restful weekend!


CHF/NOK Trade Explained
Posted on July 24, 2008 at 10:02 in Uncategorized by Ross YamashitaNo Comments »

Greetings everyone.
Through our scan of the charts, we came across the CHF/NOK Daily. We actually did a forecast for this on FX Street a couple days ago but wanted to show everyone some details on it.
Alright, we know a little about Elliott Wave theory and some of the wave formations. Do we base our entire trading strategy on Elliott? No. We incorporate Elliott in with various forms of technical analysis.
If you refer to the first chart, you see that we have a 3rd Wave of a ZZ forming. Our time analysis tells us that we’re nearing the completion of Wave 2 around July. On July 16, we get a variation of a "Shooting Star" candlestick. Candlesticks can be very useful in helping determine potential changes in trend. The shooting star candle gives us additional confirmation that this analysis is correct.


From here, look for a good movement down. Zig Zag’s wave structure is 5-3-5, so look for a nice 5 wave movement down.
Our poll is still up on our website about what readers want to see on our blogs. If you haven’t voted yet, be sure to cast your vote to let us know what you’d like us to cover. Obviously, without any readers or interaction with them, this blog will not achieve the success and interaction we envision it to receive.


EUR/USD Short Term Analysis
Posted on July 22, 2008 at 7:25 in Uncategorized by Ross Yamashita1 Comment »

Hello.
As of this moment, there is a tie between on our website on what the FX Street viewers want to see on our blog. Thank you for everyone that voted and also sent us their commentary through our contacts page.
I figure we’d take a little break today from our normal routine and address a comment from Max. Max wanted to know about Elliott Wave and how it applies to the majors. Can Elliott’s theory be applied? The answer is absouletly and that is what I plan on covering as we progress in my blog.
For now, let’s look a quick look at the EUR/USD.
Initial analysis shows a Double 3 (D3) wave (keep in mind, as the market unfolds, wave formations may change). A D3 is a 3-3-3 wave. So, 3 waves up to complete Wave 1, 3 waves to complete Wave 2, and now we’re forming 3 waves up to Wave 3. You can see we’ve got a pretty nice move up so I’d look for a retracement down before heading back up.
Potential Buy entry prices are:
Price 1 - 1.5901
Price 2 - 1.5893
Price 3 - 1.5862
As far as target goes, look for it to push back up to 1.5975+ level. If it goes below the Wave 2 low (July 21), then that would invalidate our forecast.
Would I take this trade? I’d have to see how it unfolds and keep running analysis, especially after the European market open. At this point, I wouldn’t take the trade until I get more confirmations, check for major announcements, etc. Also, I’d have to factor in my Risk vs. Reward ratio.
There are a lot of factors going on here and this is just a summary. We’ll break it down for you in future postings so you can put all the pieces of the puzzle together. I just wanted to give a quick analysis on
Keep in mind, this is not the way we trade. We scan the markets for good trade set-ups based on our criteria. I know the EUR/USD is probably the most favored amongst all pairs, but I wait for what the market gives me. I don’t trade when a good set-up is not there.
I will continue to scan the majors and I did see a potential longer term trade unveiling itself in the USD/JPY. If I get any nice formations, I will be sure to post it here.
Again, we appreciate the commets and feedback. If you want to contact me directly, feel free to email me at ross@propipper.com or use the Contact page on our website.



Pro Pipper Trading Needs Your Input!
Posted on July 21, 2008 at 2:20 in Uncategorized by Ross Yamashita2 Comments »

Hello.
We hope everyone has enjoyed their weekend.
We have gotten some great feedback from both readers, other bloggers and FX Street regarding our blog. Through continued research, we have gathered an abundance of information of what members of our website are looking for. Because we consider this a long-term relationship, we would like to do the same for readers of our FX Street Blog.
We have created a poll for you to fill out on what you would like to see our blog contain. This poll will help structure a plan for us to deliver content the readers want to see. We can’t post the information you want to see if you don’t let us know what materials you want us to cover.
Visit the poll at our website.
We’ll leave this poll up for a limited time so please pass this along to your friends as well so they can leave their input as well.
Thank you and we look forward to your feedback.


NZD/CAD Trade Set Up
Posted on July 18, 2008 at 8:17 in Uncategorized by Ross YamashitaNo Comments »

Hello.
We have gone over some very basic principles of Elliott Wave. Now, let’s apply it to a live potential trade. Looking at the NZD/CAD daily chart, our market scan shows that we are just starting the 3rd Wave of a ZZ movement. Due to the size of our chart, we have not shown you the interior wave count that makes up the larger degree ZZ.
The reason this trade is really appealing is that, if our analysis is correct, we’ve identified the completion of Wave 2 and the beginning of Wave 3. You can enter at market (currently .7673) and put your stop just below the May low of .7553. Our Fibonacci analysis says another potential entry point is at .7613, making your risk even smaller.

There is a Leading Indicators announcement for the CAD coming out at 12:30 pm GMT. Be sure to monitor your positions during announcements.
If the pair breaks the .7553 level and stays there, then that would invalidate our forecast and we would re-analyze.
If we don’t update tomorrow (Friday), then I hope everyone has a very nice and restful weekend. Remember to take time away from the markets to enjoy your family and friends.
Good luck.


AUD/CHF Cowboy
Posted on July 16, 2008 at 10:01 in Uncategorized by Ross Yamashita1 Comment »

Welcome back everyone! Thanks for joining us again.
Let’s take a look at the AUD/CHF daily chart.


As you can see in the chart, we have a nice move up and we are currently in a channeling retracement.
Our analysis tells us the overall movement is up, but when will it the pair turn to the upside? Do I enter a buy now or wait?
As you can see, the pair came very close to hitting the 61.8 Fibo line (0.9626). Our analysis actually shows the low on July 1 was the completion of Wave 2 of an Impulse wave and we are heading up in a Wave 3 (which, if you remember, is the wave we prefer to trade on an Impulse).
Well, if the analysis says it’s the end of the wave and we’re in a Wave 3 up, I’m going to enter a buy right now!
Hold your horses, cowboy! As you can see, we are near the top of the channel and we predict the general trend is up. At this point, you wait. But I know you’re just anxious to login to your live broker account and execute a trade.
Here are the scenarios we’re looking for:
1) If the price goes (and stays) above the top blue trend line, then we get into a buy. Our target area is 1.0500 so there is plenty of room for PIPS.
2) The pair goes down towards the low of July 1. As the currency moves forward in time, the bottom trend line (in terms of price) keeps getting lower. If, indeed the July 1 candle was the completion of Wave 2, then a price lower would technically invalidate the original forecast. However, there are other circumstances that you would take into consideration if this happens - something we’ll get into in a future session. But for right now, since the forecast is technically invalidated, it would be a no trade.
The moral of the story is, keep this pair in your watchlist and resist the urge to pull the trigger on this one and watch what unfolds. By doing that, you’ll put yourself in a much better position to make profits while minimizing losses. Either the pair will break the top trend line and you’re in a good probability trade up or the pair goes below the July 1 low and you have a no trade - saving you a loss.
We appreciate the comments and support we’ve been receiving from the FX Street community. Please do not hesitate to visit us and leave any feedback on our blogs.
See everyone again shortly.


Elliott Wave Basics Applied
Posted on July 14, 2008 at 3:28 in Uncategorized by Ross YamashitaNo Comments »

Hello and welcome back to another trading week. We are already at Week 29 of 2008 and the year is going by quickly.
Continuing with our overview of Elliott Wave, we have found a potential Wave 3 of an Impulse in the USD/CHF hourly charts. Please keep in mind one thing - I want to point out this is the basic breakdown of Elliott and not a comprehensive analysis.
That said, if you have ever followed our analysis on our Forecasts section of FX Street, you probably know which wave of an Impulse we prefer to trade. For an Impulse wave, we like to trade Wave 3. Why wave 3, you ask?
If you remember from our blog entry a couple sessions ago, I outlined the basic internal wave structure of an Impulse. Basically speaking, it is a 5-3-5-3-5 pattern, where wave 1 breaks into 5 waves, wave 2 into 3 waves, wave 3 into 5 waves, wave 4 into 3 waves and wave 5 into 5 waves. We sometimes trade other waves of an Impulse, however, that is a little more advanced and as we will cover that when we come to that point. Wave 3 is a strong, 5-wave movement and it gives us a strong trend directional movement.
Take a look at the chart below:

You see we started our Impulse wave in June 2008. We had a nice 5 wave movement down (outlined in chart) that completed our Wave 1. We then had a 3 wave correction, completing Wave 2. Now, where do we go?
As you can see, we had a good strong movement back down (the start of Wave 3). You may say to yourself: "I don’t want to get in a sell trade now since I missed a lot of the movement." Sure, if the world was perfect, we’d get into a sell right at the turn of the market - and we’ll cover that later with Fibonacci projections and analysis. But, in the current situation and in general terms, what we’ll do is wait for a retracement back up before getting into a sell.
I know what you’re thinking - "Okay great! I’ll wait for it to go up but when do I get back into a sell?" Don’t worry my friends - we’ll get into that in the near future. What I wanted to point out up to this point is the breakdown and structure of the Impulse wave.
We’re all traders - we have hopefully developed some form of patience when dealing with the market. As we move forward, we’ll definitely get into the nitty gritty of details and the when and why’s.
We hope everyone has a great week of trading. Remember that the beginning of the week is when you should familiarize yourself with the economic calendars of the Forex markets. You need to know what announcements are coming out and how each announcement affects the markets. Down the road, we’ll go over how you tie in economic announcements into Elliott and techinical analysis.
Good luck.


Interpreting Elliott
Posted on July 11, 2008 at 8:39 in Uncategorized by Ross YamashitaNo Comments »

Hello everyone.
Well, as fate would have it, we didn’t have a good example of an Impulse or Zig Zag (ZZ) wave structure in the past couple of days. Although I wanted to show you an example, this brings up a good point.
Unless you are a major institution or player, YOU are NOT a market maker. You do NOT make the markets. You must take what the market gives you. A lot of times, traders will think they can make the markets go where they want it to or see trades that aren’t there. They do this because of they are so anxious to place a trade they throw their trading plan right out the window. This is where you’re going to make mistakes.
So, as in trading, we’ll wait as we know there will be another chance to trade in the future. What I am going to show you are one of the arguments against Elliott Wave.
I took the EUR/CHF hourly chart from yesterday and showed you two potential analysis. Both are ZZ’s, but one shows the outlook as down and the other as up. Which one is correct?


It is a little misleading as we only show you a certain part of the chart, but the more probable chart is the one where it forecasts going up. Why?
If you look at the ZZ down, you see it is a very short movement (in terms of time) where the second wave almost doubles the first wave in terms of time. If we showed you a daily chart, you’d see that the sharp down movement is most likely a retracement from the upward trend.
So, where does the pair go from here? Look for a strong continued movement up to the high of October 2007.
Remember, you have to get the feel of the market and take what it gives you. Never get in the mindset that you can make the market.
I’ll continue to scan the markets and update as soon as I find a good example. Good luck and see everyone shortly.


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hefeiddd

Posted on July 9, 2008 at 11:34 in Uncategorized by Ross Yamashita1 Comment »
Hello everyone.
To start off on this trading journey together, we’re going to start off with the basics. First off, let me start by saying that the focus of the early entries of my blog is for you to LEARN the concepts and not just to FOLLOW. You will become more self-confident and a better trader when you understand the concepts and can apply them yourselves and not have to rely on someone else. Not to fear - as we progress through the blog, I will definitely progress into real time analysis, trades, fundamental analysis, etc.
Like many other things in life, fundamentals are key. Tiger Woods didn’t get his long drive with accuracy by doing it a couple times a day. He practiced his swing hundreds of times a day to get to where he is now. A lot of traders get caught up with the latest technical indicator that has the "coolest" name. Sure, indicators help analyze the market, but when your trading plan involves analyzing a single chart with ten to twenty different indicators, you’ll drive yourself insane.
So, why the golf analogy? Basically, it is very important that you learn the basics - not only be familiar with them, but know them intimately because you will always refer to them in your trading and sometimes you will not have time to pull out your cheat sheet.
That said, the core of our analysis is based off Elliott Wave analysis. I have heard every argument when it comes to Elliott Wave analysis - some very compelling. I am not going to go into a long, detailed background on Elliott Wave theory, but basically, it says that the market moves in patterns.
Below are some Elliott Wave patterns we look for to trade.

IMPULSE - Very strong trend movement. The impulse wave is a 5 wave movement with waves 1, 3 and 5 being in the direction of the trend. Wave 1, 3 and 5 break down into smaller five wave movements and the Wave 2 and 4 break down into 3 wave movements. It can be in the opposite direction as well.
ZIG ZAG - A 3 wave move. Waves 1 and 3 are in the direction of the trend and break down into 5 waves with Wave 2 breaking down into a 3 wave movement. It can be in the opposite direction as well.
Don’t worry if you don’t understand this right away. This is by far not the only two patterns. I wanted to start you off with the two patterns we look for first to place a trade.
Next post, we will see how these patterns apply to a live chart. Until then, have a great day of trading!

The Week Ahead & Market Analysis
Posted on July 7, 2008 at 11:39 in Uncategorized by Ross YamashitaNo Comments »

Hello.
The Non-Farm Payroll came in close to consensus and we saw trader’s reactions short the EUR/USD after the NFP and Trichet’s comments.
Now what can we expect from the currency markets? It is a pretty busy week in terms of announcements this week and we’ll break this down for you in future posts.
It’s important to note that the core of our technical analysis is derived from Elliott Wave patterns. In my upcoming posts, I will go over some of the more common patterns in Elliott Wave theory and how to trade them.
For now, one pair we’re keeping a close eye on is the USD/CHF. Looking at a daily chart, we see a nice down movement since June of 2007 and even further back to October 2006.
Starting from the high of June 2007, I see that we are in a nice downward movement. I drew in some general trend lines and put a Fibonacci from the June 2007 high to the March 2008 low. As you can see, some key points arise as crosses between the two lines.
Do we trade this? NO. This is just a quick analysis on combining Elliott Wave patterns and basic trend lines and Fibonacci to come up with some entry targets. What’s good about this is not only the price target, but it also gives you a time target as well. Keep in mind the target area at the bottom is neither to scale for price or time, but just gives you a quick reference to the overall trend of the currency.
As we move forward with the blog, it’s important to understand and know the basics - which is what we’re going to review in the next couple of entries. Once you get that down, you’ll be able to apply them to your trading with confidence.

Welcome to the Trader’s Edge Blog
Posted on July 7, 2008 at 7:20 in Uncategorized by Ross Yamashita2 Comments »

Hello everyone.
This is Ross Yamashita and I am the owner of Pro Pipper Trading. We are very excited about starting our blog with FX Street and hope our viewers will find our blog educational, useful and incorporate it into their daily trading routine.
In our blog, we will cover many topics and analysis. We will also show viewers how we analyze the market and place trades, walking them through the entire process from analysis to entry, exit and money management.
We welcome questions and suggestions about our blog. Feel free to contact me directly at ross@propipper.com with any questions or suggestions you have. See everyone shortly.


New Page Test
Posted on July 3, 2008 at 8:23 in Uncategorized by Ross YamashitaComments Off

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