一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

Chartology Inside technicals and chart patterns by Raghee Horner, trader and author at Raghee.com










The free MT4 GRaB plug in is at my personal blog.
Wide Range Rectangle Sets Up an Inside-the-Range Scenario
Posted on March 23, 2009 at 23:09 in Chart patterns by Raghee HornerNo Comments »

The EUR/USD is heading sideways inside a wide ranging congestion pattern.  The double top pattern has a floor and ceiling that has prices bouncing off support and resistance.

The play is now heading up to the ceiling and if price continues to find selling pressure as 1.3740 approaches — the last three tops are 1.3737, 1.3726, and 1.3735 — then there will likely be another opportunity to play a short of the ceiling.  If price at some point breakout beyond either support or resistance then it’s possible that a momentum play has triggered.  Look to confirm any breakout with the MACD Histogram.

Join me each Tuesday at 11:00am EST at FXStreet for the Chart Pattern Trading webinar featuring Autochartist for more information on set upslie this.



Follow Up to the 240 minute USD/CAD
Posted on March 18, 2009 at 20:56 in Chart patterns by Raghee HornerNo Comments »

The uptrend lines on the daily were broken to the downside and the 30 minute — while not pretty — eventually took out uptrend line support as well.
But it was this four hour chart that too went lower, but was such a thing of swing trading beauty.

This was among the charts we looked at.  What i want to stress here is that all three set ups were essentially plays off USD/CAD weakness.  Choosing which to take is as much a function of findhing which has the cleanest set up but also which presents the best risk/reward ratio that is appropriate for your account.
Look for support neat the 1.2400 major psychological level as we’re alredy sliced through 2500.


A look at the top in the USD/CAD…LOTS of charts!
Posted on March 17, 2009 at 20:09 in Chart patterns by Raghee HornerNo Comments »

Between the Wave and a hard place: I’ve been playing the top just beyond 1.3000 on the USD/CAD and there have been plenty of reasons to keep an eye on this level as the canada continues to congest between the Wave and the ceiling.

Prices are trading on the strong side of the Wave and price has been respecting the support of the uptrend line where the USD/CAD is trading now.

There really isn’t a current set up on the daily canada as prices are far south of the 3000 ceiling.  There are however opportunities amid the weakness on the 60 and 240 minute charts.  The 240 is setting up a swing short off Wave resistance.  The clock angle is not a great four to six o’clock angle but there is decent resistance at the 34EMA low.


The 60 minute chart is heading sideways and setting up a momentum play.  In any sideways market scenario be ready for a break to the up or downside.  Currently the the MACD Histogram is positive but that doesn’t mean it will be there if or when prices break out of the consoldation.



Looking at a breakdown in the Cable
Posted on March 16, 2009 at 22:24 in Chart patterns by Raghee HornerNo Comments »

The GBP/USD is breaking down through the uptrend line support.  This pattern has broken out mainly because — as in the case of any self-limited pattern — this triangle simply ran out of room.  The break then is price moving slightly lower as it trades through what I call the “narrows” of the triangle.

This doesn’t necessarily mean the break is invalid.  But it does mean that I am likely to look for nearby support and resistance that is likely to test the bears’ resolve to move the cable lower.
So far the support that has developed is sitting just below the original breakdown and is holding.

Bears should be happy that all this is still occuring below the 1.4100 level and that there is near term resistance going into the Asian session at minor psychological level of 1.4080.  The next near term support is waiting at 1.4050.


GBP/USD: Tale of Two Trends
Posted on March 13, 2009 at 14:44 in Chart patterns by Raghee Horner2 Comments »

It’s Friday and I am in half-day trading mode so I thought a nice educational updated would be perfect going into the weekend.  I’m going to walk you through using an invalid chart pattern alert, two different intraday trends, and confirming Initial Trend readings on the your Autochartist alert.
The two patterns that have formed on the charts are setting up to entirely different trades, the only thing being the fact both are trending pattern alerts.


The 240 minute chart however is not heading in a mark down cycle so the pattern alert is not valid BUT the downtrend line of the pattern will be a level to watch for a potential breakout.  In this way, even invalid patterns can be helpful.
So since I am looking at a potential break out through resistance on the 240 and a potential trend follow buy on the 30, these two time frames have more in common than it may look like at first glance.

One thing I need to caution you when looking at trending and non-trending markets is to be sure and confirm the “Initial Trend” reading with the current market cycle before assuming that the underlying market environment is a good match for the alert!

Again the 30 minute chart shows a weak reading on Initial Trend, no doubt partially correct because of the recent consolidation before the pullback.  But when looking at the market cycle, the trend is a strong uptrend.
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Another leg down in the USD/JPY
Posted on March 11, 2009 at 15:22 in Chart patterns by Raghee HornerNo Comments »

Here’s a look at a triangle breakdown on the 60 minute USD/JPY.  I’m sure many of you have taken advantage of the chart pattern alerts right here at FXStreet.
There are a number of what as known as “quality indicators” that accompany each chart pattern alert.
Let’s take a look at those for a moment to get a better read on this set up.

Initial Trend is low.  This is fine, even good, because a triangle is a consolidation/congestion pattern that ideally develops in a sideways market.
Uniformity is medium.  Although I would like the uniformity to be higher, indicating that the touchpoints of the trendlines are spaced evenly within the pattern, for shorter term set up it can be low.  The pattern itself is only 72 candles larger.  That means that pattern developed and triggered in less than three sessions.
Clarity is high and this is always good.  Clarity can be considered the aesthetic value of a pattern.  Some patterns simply look good or right.  The clarity reading takes the subjective and offers an objective measurement.
The key to follow through on this set up will be the 97.89 low from yesterday giving way.


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hefeiddd

Posted on March 9, 2009 at 15:03 in Chart patterns by Raghee HornerNo Comments »
…playing the bounce here.
Watch the downtrend line resistance (green line) for a short play as price reaches the resistance of the pattern.

With prices above the 1.2600 level there is a chance that prices could bounce higher on the break up through the “00″.

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Hey Aussie! Where ya going now?
Posted on March 4, 2009 at 16:10 in Chart patterns by Raghee HornerNo Comments »

I’ve been watching the daily aussie for a breakdown as I posted in the previous update.  With the 0.6300 level now holding as support and the aussie trading near the 0.6450 psychological level, it looks like my daily trade is going to be taking the scenic route.
This doesn’t mean the daily set up is no longer valid, it just means that I can look at some other intraday opportunities.

The15 minute chart broke the intraday resistance of the downtrend line (green) and rallied higher to and through the forecast region plotted by Autochartist.  The rally has the intraday time frames like the 240 (below) heading towards breakouts of their own.

The daily chart set up would certainly be under pressure of going invalid if the 240 triggers and encourges more longer term intraday buyers to react.  These are the signs I look for across multiple chart pattern alerts.
In the meanwhile the 15 minute time frame is ripe for swing set ups.

Aussie breakdown on the daily
Posted on March 3, 2009 at 19:01 in Chart patterns by Raghee HornerNo Comments »

With the Australian GDP release tonight, the AUD/USD is already breaking down lower through uptrend line support on the daily chart.
The formation is a triangle pattern and has triggered with MACD Histogram confirmation.


While the market cycle is not “ideal” with a sideways, three o’clock market cycle, the formation is occurring in a sideways consolidation which is what we look for when trading triangles.
The GDP release will be tonight (Tuesday) at 7:30pm EST.


Looking to the intraday USD/CAD set ups for the trigger I’m watching
Posted on February 24, 2009 at 22:34 in Chart patterns by Raghee HornerNo Comments »

We looked at the daily canada in the last update…but the key to the upside follow-through could be the intraday time frames like the 30 and 60 minute charts.

I’m still watching the downtrend line on the daily time frame for follow-through from the pierce of the downtrend line.  This broke the triangle.  But as price pulls back, it’s not as if the daily trigger is no longer valid, it’s simply wandering in the “no man’s land” of a trade that is not yet following through.  Intrday charts can often set up while this is happening.  Case in point, the downtrend line on the 60 minute.  A breakout here could potentially lead to the upward momentum that the daily needs.
Don’t be afraid to play mutilple time frames of the same pair.  They will have their own nuances and should be traded on their own merit - often you will see that the key to the larger time frames moving will be the “building blocks” of the shorter time frames.


This is the triple top I’ve been watching on the canada…but where’s the set up?
Posted on February 23, 2009 at 23:54 in Chart patterns by Raghee HornerNo Comments »

The triangle pattern on the dollar-canada on the daily chart caught my eye as I was trading crude oil today…I trade one, I always think of the other…

The triple top that has contained the rallies.  The triangle pattern has broken out although the follow through isn’t there yet.  Remember the triple top that is waiting.
The pattern is setting up — as it should idealy be — within a sideways market cycle.



Ok, so the safe haven play is alive and well…
Posted on February 19, 2009 at 19:29 in Price actions by Raghee HornerNo Comments »

It’s always nice and fun and needed to play out different scenarios on the chart.  A bottom on the EUR/USD is one that while cetianly can be possible is simply not a reality when you look at current price action.
I am not as impressed with the U.S. Dollar Index running up through 88.00 where is was sold off swiftly starting early in yesterday’s Asian session and accelerated in the European/U.K. overlap.  I am am impressed with the support at 87.00.  Remember higher highs in an uptrend are important to the psychology of attracting buyers but it’s the support — the higher lows — that are the backbone of the move.
That means the bigger picture downside targets in the EUR/USD are likely alive and well, as is the dollar safe haven play.


Crude weakness, the safe-haven play, the fiber, and the U.S. Dollar
Posted on February 12, 2009 at 16:31 in Uncategorized by Raghee HornerNo Comments »

There’s a lot to think here but it all works together and that’s the way the forex market works.
I am going to look at current levels in crude oil using the USO symbol, intraday support int the fiber, and what this all means to the safe haven play in the dollar.
The intraday EUR/USD has reached and bounced off a 30 minute forecast region.
The supprt on the 30 minute chart sits between 1.2730 and 1.2710.  The channel down pattern is a trending pattern so the forecast/support cannot be taken as a reversal but rather jsut a bounce.  An intraday reversal would come if prices can get north of 1.2865.

The USO (United States Oil Fund) is hovering just above support which is waiting between 25.18 and 22.93.
If oil begins to attract buyers at this low price, if traders feel it is “oversold” this will all culminated toa rally back at the key $40 decade level.  In turn it will put pressure on the dollar.  While the dolllar might be enjoying safe haven status, it’s looking awfully tippy up here above 86.00 and has not been able to get footing above 86.50, a major psychologicla level.

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Patterns alerts supplied by Autochartist chart pattern recognition software.


The 15 minute bear flag followed through, now what? Set up a trend follow!
Posted on February 11, 2009 at 15:00 in Chart patterns by Raghee HornerNo Comments »

The downtrend that has initiated from the breakdown has formed 1) a four to six o’clock mark down cycle and 2) an opportunity to set up swing shorts within a down channel.


The downtrend is best capitalized on shorter term, intraday charts right now as the longer term trend (daily chart) is sideways.  Follow-through in this environment of uncertainty is difficult to come by on longer term intraday (180 or 240 minte) charts.
Look for short triggers between 4435 and 4450 on the 30 minute chart.  The downtrend will be intact on the this time frame until the cycle flattens (keep an eye on the Wave!) or price find their way north of 4500.


Short Tem Set Up: 15 min cable bear flag
Posted on February 9, 2009 at 21:13 in Chart patterns by Raghee HornerNo Comments »

The set up here is a short term (15 min) chart pattern.  Bear flags are upward angling, short channels.  The trigger for the short occurs when the uptrend line support is broken.  These patterns can set up in both an accumulation or distribution cycle; this is occurring in the distribution.  The trigger for a flag is always in the opposite direction of the angle.  Bear flags angle up while bull flags angle down.




Why I am using this chart to set up a short in the EUR/USD…
Posted on February 9, 2009 at 19:03 in Chart patterns by Raghee HornerNo Comments »

I feel like I have been writing a lot bearish analysis for the EUR/USD…I call ‘em like I see ‘em and until the downtrend is broken I don’t see any reason to be a bull.  Price action alone will justify that stance. in the meanwhile, I am keeping  an eye on the Wave resistance and just as a point of interest, for you trades that like candlestick patterns, a bearish harami that completed Feb. 5th.

So here’s the chart that has me thinking that perhaps the shift back to the downside is happening.  This is an “outside the box” way to look at chart patterns, trade follow-through, and Autochartist alerts.

The 60 minute chart has broken the resistance of the rising wedge pattern and while this is a “classic” breakout trigger for this pattern it is not necessarily the best way to trade a trending pattern.  (Trending patterns are best set up to capitalize on trend follows and reversals.)
What I do get from this alert (and I will use Autochartist alerts like this) is an indication of potential reversals/support/resistance is that the follow through has reached a target and that this target is resistance and could signal weakness.  Follow? It’s not a short signal but a potential short term shift in sentiment that aligns with the overall trend in the EUR/USD.
The daily chart is trading at the resistance I am looking to short from between 3050 and 3070.  And the 60 minute rising wedge forecase region confirms the ceiling there as well.


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hefeiddd

Posted on February 6, 2009 at 16:11 in Chart patterns, Price actions by Raghee HornerNo Comments »

Let’s look at the daily chart with the GRaB candles and you’ll see there is just one more hurdle before a more conservative buy is triggered and that’s the top line of the Wave at 6740.


USD/CAD Squeezes into Triangle Pattern
Posted on February 5, 2009 at 14:17 in Chart patterns by Raghee Horner2 Comments »

The dollar-canada is congesting as crude oil bounces along $40/barrel.


The market cycle is sideways (aka three o’clock) and the eventual breakout from the triangle — as long as the market cycle stays sideways — is inevitable as all triangle patterns are “self limiting”.  While there is s slight bearish bias point to a downside break, this pattern can be expected to move up or down.  However the bearish move seems — at least for right now — to make the most sense as the dollar is having issues with staying above 86.00 and the $40 level on crude is strong.

Channel Up on the 15 minute Dollar-Yen
Posted on February 4, 2009 at 2:16 in Chart patterns by Raghee HornerNo Comments »

With uptrend line support at 89.40 there is the opportunity for a reversal (short) however since there is a weak uptrend on the time frame, play the trend follow until the uptrend line is broken.  The risk is minimal if the entry is triggered by the support line since a break below will make the buy invalid.



Swissy Sets Ups an Intraday Triangle Breakdown
Posted on February 3, 2009 at 14:47 in Chart patterns by Raghee HornerNo Comments »

I rely on my “GRaB” charts to visually indicate changes in strength and weakness.  The MT4 chart shows the shift to “red” and the weak side of the Wave on the 30 minute swissy.

The plug-in is available for download right from this blog here.
The shift is the first indication of possible weakness to come.  Add to that the triangle pattern alert (below) and the momentum set up was taking shape.  The 30 minute chart was in a sideways market cycle which is the first filter the run the chart pattern alert through.  Finally comes the confirmation indicator, the MACD Histogram.  The MACD-H went negative at 6am EST.

This is how you take a chart pattern and set it up with price action and some simple idicators.  The trade is price action based but with a few indicatiors (like the Wave and MACD-H) you can filter the chart pattern to make sure it is forming in the ocrrect market cycle and you confirm the break.
Keep it simple!


EUR/JPY Swing Set Up with Falling Wedge Pattern
Posted on February 2, 2009 at 17:19 in Chart patterns by Raghee HornerNo Comments »

The trend on the daily chart is down as prices are on the weak side of the Wave and the market cycle is a “four to six”:

Starting with the markey cycle put’s me on the right track for what entry type I will need to capitalize on subsequent price action…my philosophy is this:
If you don’t know what the market cycle is your entry will be relegated to guesswork.
Now on to the chart patterns.  Notice that the first and most important criteria for the chart pattern has been met:  The downtrending pattern is forming in a downtrending market!  Just because the lines and levels have formed DOES NOT mean that the pattern is valid for the market cycle.

A bounce is needed to get the ideal swing short set up which is a test of resistance so if there is an intraday bounce this will set up the daily chart…one thing leads to another.

The reversal and rally on the 15 minute chart could be the very catalyst needed to get the daily to the shorting zone.
There’s long way to go before prices enter the 118 region…but this is one to keep an eye on this week.


Waiting for a AUD/USD Bounce for a Swing Short
Posted on January 29, 2009 at 23:40 in Price actions by Raghee HornerNo Comments »


The trend is down on the 15, 30, and 60 minute charts and it on the weak side of the Wave across the 180, 240, and daily as well.
The play is to capitalize on what could be an active Friday Asian session and a possible bounce off the 0.6500 psychological level.  But there are a lot of “ifs” in this aussie swing short set up.  The trigger is the bottom line of the Wave.
Right now the AUD/USD is trading at 0.6495.


Will 90.00 hold as a ceiling on the dollar-yen?
Posted on January 29, 2009 at 22:52 in Chart patterns by Raghee HornerNo Comments »

Take a look at the triangle pattern on the chart.  First things first though.  The triangle is occurring in a downtrend so that make’s it an invalid trade set up BUT there is the “pieces” of the pattern available to us.  This means that instead of playing a breakout/breakdown set up as would normally be the case with a triangle, look at the resistance of the downtrend line (and the Wave!) and the support of the double bottom.



Swing Short Zone on the Fiber
Posted on January 28, 2009 at 1:07 in Chart patterns by Raghee HornerNo Comments »

The weakness in the EUR/USD has corrected to the bottom line of the Wave setting up a swing short…this is a valid set up just as long as the market cycle remains down.

The chart pattern on the daily backs this set up nicely…while there is a short ready at the bottom line of the Wave now, the weakness can be shorted all the way up the the downtrend resistance line of the down channel.

Keep it simple.


Facebook…no Forexbook!
Posted on January 27, 2009 at 3:12 in Uncategorized by Raghee HornerNo Comments »

Join me there.
Thanks to the many of you who have emailed me…at this point my Inbox may explode…enter Facebook.  I’ll be using Facebook more as support for the chats and the blog.
I’m working on a Chartbook I’ll be adding to there.  Here’s a sample of an opening range chart from this morning’s London session that I shared with my buddie Aaron at Facebook.



The Dow Rallies and the Yen Looks Ready for a Breakout
Posted on January 26, 2009 at 16:18 in Chart patterns by Raghee HornerNo Comments »

The set ups are coming quickly across multiple time frames on the USD/JPY.  Chart patterns are pointing to a breakout.


The 30 minute chart has a forecast region that begins just below the 90.00 major psychological level.
The momentum on the 30 is carrying through to the 240 minute chart as the down channel is poised to break the downtrend line resistance and here’s where is gets interesting:

Patiently waiting just above the intraday chart breakouts is the daily chart swing short which would trigger between 89.95 (”step out in front of size”) and 90.20 (minor psychological level and Wave low).
So short term I’m bullish, especially with the Dow up 160 this morning.  Longer term I am bearish unless or until price get north of 91.80 to 92.05.
[url=]Download a trial of Autochartist and get the “GRaB’ chart plug for MT4[/url]


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hefeiddd

Posted on January 24, 2009 at 19:36 in Price actions by Raghee Horner8 Comments »
“Grab” charts are a visual cue to let you know at a glance whether prices are trading within, above, or below the Wave.  It works on the MT4 platform and as far as I can tell any version of the MT4 platform.  This is nothing more than the same color coding that has been a part of my eSignal plug for about seven years.  it’s not a system or anything like that…let me be clear about that…although certainly there are system ideas that could be devised from price movement up and down through my Wave.  You read about what I do with “grab charts” here. There are plenty of visual cues that can be picked up from where prices are in relation to the dynamic support and resistance of the Wave.
I’m not customer support and I’m certainly no MT4 expert so if you need to know how to use indicators on your MT4, check the help and support docs.  After unzipping the file, I put the “Raghee’s Indicator.mq4″ in the “indicators” folder.  You can find this if you go into you C: drive –> Program Files –> MetaTrader (or whatever version of MT4 you are using is called) –> experts –> indicators
download ex4
download mq4
(click to enlarge the chart)


Thanks to Mistigri.net for the MT4 programming.

Short Term Chart Patterns Key to Early & Aggressive Entries
Posted on January 24, 2009 at 4:10 in Chart patterns by Raghee HornerNo Comments »

I usually don’t trade off short term time frames but now and again, especially when the pairs are trending strongly up or down, the best way to capitalize on corrections will often be the 15 minute time frame.
And that’s not to say that momentum set ups aren’t effective on th 15 minute, they are!  In fact when the 30 or 60 minute doesn’t give me a consolidation/congestion cycles, it’s the 15 minute that will be the time frame that is the only way to enter the breakout/breakdown.
I usually feel that 15 minute charts are aggressive in momentum and swing entries because they are the alerts that will show up first…and that’s both the strength and weakness of the short term.  You may be getting in with the only opportunity or you may be getting in too soon ot too aggressively.
The key is to know this!
Here are some great 15 minute set ups from Autochartist:

This is a set up that has already followed through but the reason I think it will be one to wath is because it’s trading inside the forecast region which will be resistance.  If this time frame begins to pull back, there could be some corrective opportunites on the 30 ro 60.

I love this look because in any trending set up there are three possible entries and two that I look for in particular.  First and this is should be the first consideration, is the trend follow.  Look for weakness and selling pressure at the downtrend line resistance line (green).  The other consideration will be a breakout through the green line as a trend reversal.

The aussie is setting up a similar set up to the canada.  Instead it’s an uptrend and the support line (blue) is where buying support would be expected to step in.

Crude Oil Tumbles Early
Posted on January 20, 2009 at 13:06 in Price actions by Raghee HornerNo Comments »

Crude has rebounded this morning BUT not before it sold off early as the Asian/European overlap ended.

The push down to 33.00 was not long lived as traders rallied the market up from that major psychological number.  Crude has been moving and is dependable to react to the “00″ as has been the case on the climb up and now on the $100-plus sell off.
While prices have once again found some footing north of 34.00 the U.S. Dollat Index and the USD/CAD have reacted to the morning’s bearishness.

The U.S. Dollar is currently trading above 86.00.  Inauguration euphoria?  Likely no.  Europe and the U.K. continue to have a flood of bad news and data and the U.S. Dollar is simply rallying on it.


The USD/CAD Stall at 2500 Sets Up a Correction Buy
Posted on January 15, 2009 at 14:55 in Chart patterns, Price actions by Raghee HornerNo Comments »

The dollar-canada is on the strong side of the Wave on all my timeframes and the uptrend is great…but only if you are already long right?  Well, I have already scaled out of my initial entry and I am looking for a way back in.  In this  uptrending market, I will wait for a swing buy.

The rising wedge chart pattern alert is confirmation of my thinking and the support of the lower uptrend line (blue) set up my chance.  
Here’s my visual confirmation of the 60 minute’s uptrend and support using my Wave.

The uptrend is valid as long as 1) the clock angle is twelve to two and 2) prices remain above the botom line of the Wave (34ema low).


Trends and Set Ups on the Fiber
Posted on January 14, 2009 at 17:44 in Chart patterns, Price actions by Raghee HornerNo Comments »

This is “Chartology” and I’ve always felt the best way to find and manage trades is based on price charts.  So let’s dissect the EUR/USD aka the fiber and look at what it’s likely to do next and what price points worth watching.
The EUR/USD has been selling off as the U.S. Dollar Index has been steadily climbing through two key resistance levels:  the 84.00 and 84.20 psychological levels.  Next to watch for the greenback is the 84.50 to 84.63 area.
The fiber has broken down through the 3200 level and not found any push of buyers to get it back over this once strong support level.  The break down has accelerated over the past three trading sessions and today brings to first stall — the candle could result in a doji (pause) candle — in the sell off.  This weakness in this market is going to key off the U.S. Dollar strength as the flight to quality continues…

The .786 Fibonacci level is waiting near the minor psychological 3020 level.  Today’s low is 3094 as there was a brief pierce of 3100 but buyers we’re ready and eager to support this “00″.
So what are the set ups?  When the market is trending, as the intraday 180 and 240 minute EUR/USD are, the best play is the the “trend follow” or swing on corrections (bounces) while the downtrend is intact.

There was a swing short opportunity this morning on the 180 minute chart. This is one of the five time frames that I track along with the 30, 60, 240, and daily.
Here’s a look at the 240 with Autochartist:

The trending market confirms the channel down pattern on the 240 minute chart and so trend follow plays would be shorts off the resistance (green) downtrend line.  But this chart as well as the 180 minute above also allow me to be ready for reversal of the trend.  On the 180 I will look for a break above 3420 and on the 240 channel down pattern, I will look for a break above 3560.


Revisiting the rising wedge on the cable: How to play a trending pattern reversal
Posted on January 12, 2009 at 18:05 in Uncategorized by Raghee Horner2 Comments »


Remember this alert from a couple posts ago?  scroll down
Now with the cable selling off sharply through the support of the rising wedge now what?

The two uptrend lines I have drawn are representative of the reversal and sell-off and they represent the reversal play from the breakdown of the wedge pattern.
Remember:  Every trending pattern can be played as 1) trend follow and 2) trend reversal.  In this case there was opportunity for both.


A look at patterns in the USD/JPY and EUR/JPY
Posted on January 12, 2009 at 17:47 in Chart patterns by Raghee Horner1 Comment »

Here are two set ups on the end-of-day charts:

This is a classic swing short off downtrend line resistnace.  The asymmetriacl triangle pattern on the EUR/JPY can be played short off the ceiling - this would be an “inside the range” play as prices bounce within the pattern itself.

Both these set ups are curerntly setting up as prices are weaker.  Here’s the relationshit between the USD/JPY and EUR/JPY:

Competitive devaluation anyone?
There is a 50 basis point cut that’s been baked in to the cake in the Euro…the credit story out of Spain is leading the way after the country of Spain’s credit has been put on watch by the S&P.
You can see the yen gaining against the euro as this story unfold.
We’ll look the weakness in the euro in the next post.
Check out other patterns set ups right here at FXStreet here or try a 21 day free trial with the free INTRO video series here.


The wedge continuation play…continues…on the cable
Posted on January 7, 2009 at 16:43 in Chart patterns, Price actions by Raghee HornerNo Comments »

The cable on the 60 minute chart is climbing within the rising wedge pattern on the intraday uptrend…exactly the type of play I’m looking for when I want to trend follow.


The green candles indicate that prices are trading above the Wave and ofcourse you wouldn’t need that visual cue in this situation because the higher lows (support) are obvious.
The play here is to wait for the pullback and trigger a long with that.  A pullback to where?  The support of the top line of the Wave would be on spot but the problem with that it is is far, far south of where prices are now.  The other option is to use the last major move and pull a Fibo off it:

I’m not usually a fan of a .25 correction for an entry (too shallow) so the .382 is what I’d be watching PLUS it’s got the support of the 1.5100 “00″ behind it which is always good.
- Raghee


EUR/JPY Triangle Set Up to Watch
Posted on January 7, 2009 at 16:20 in Chart patterns, Price actions by Raghee HornerNo Comments »


This is a rather large pattern with the breakout level at 127.70 and the breakdown levels at 125.20.  The market cycle is neutral and prices are still trading within the wider part of the triangle.  A triangle is a self-limiting pattern and as prices continue towards the “narrows” of the pattern a break basically becomes inevitable as prices will eventually break because there is no where else left to go.

The blue candles on the chart above signal a sideways market as the candle paints blue only when the close is inside the Wave itselft.  Taking a market cycle reading of neutral — especially after a series of blue candles — is reliable.
This pattern has some ways to go before it will appear on my “proximity radar”.  In the meanwhile it’s a set up that can sit on the back burner.  The main thing here is that with this kind of *heads up* I can be proactive about this play.
- Raghee


Daily versus 30 minute USD/JPY Set Ups
Posted on January 6, 2009 at 19:47 in Chart patterns, Price actions by Raghee HornerNo Comments »

Dualing set ups!  Time for a closer look:
Here’s the view of the Autochartist alert.

The falling wedge pattern triggered by breaking the resistance of the (green) downtrend line and has reached the “Forecast” area which is resistance.  The buy is still valid but I’m going to have to sit through the curernt  intraday pullback.

So now wait?

The 30 minute chart is setting up a potential short on today’s pullback with a break through 93.65.  Wait for the weakness before pulling the trigger.
You’ll notice that I am playing around with some different studies here but they are not new.  This is the Wave set up as I described in my first book back in ‘04 and the way I traded futures for about ten years before that.
More on this later…
Just some charts to ponder.
- Raghee


« Newer posts – Older posts »

hefeiddd

Posted on January 24, 2009 at 19:36 in Price actions by Raghee Horner8 Comments »
“Grab” charts are a visual cue to let you know at a glance whether prices are trading within, above, or below the Wave.  It works on the MT4 platform and as far as I can tell any version of the MT4 platform.  This is nothing more than the same color coding that has been a part of my eSignal plug for about seven years.  it’s not a system or anything like that…let me be clear about that…although certainly there are system ideas that could be devised from price movement up and down through my Wave.  You read about what I do with “grab charts” here. There are plenty of visual cues that can be picked up from where prices are in relation to the dynamic support and resistance of the Wave.
I’m not customer support and I’m certainly no MT4 expert so if you need to know how to use indicators on your MT4, check the help and support docs.  After unzipping the file, I put the “Raghee’s Indicator.mq4″ in the “indicators” folder.  You can find this if you go into you C: drive –> Program Files –> MetaTrader (or whatever version of MT4 you are using is called) –> experts –> indicators
download ex4
download mq4
(click to enlarge the chart)


Thanks to Mistigri.net for the MT4 programming.

Short Term Chart Patterns Key to Early & Aggressive Entries
Posted on January 24, 2009 at 4:10 in Chart patterns by Raghee HornerNo Comments »

I usually don’t trade off short term time frames but now and again, especially when the pairs are trending strongly up or down, the best way to capitalize on corrections will often be the 15 minute time frame.
And that’s not to say that momentum set ups aren’t effective on th 15 minute, they are!  In fact when the 30 or 60 minute doesn’t give me a consolidation/congestion cycles, it’s the 15 minute that will be the time frame that is the only way to enter the breakout/breakdown.
I usually feel that 15 minute charts are aggressive in momentum and swing entries because they are the alerts that will show up first…and that’s both the strength and weakness of the short term.  You may be getting in with the only opportunity or you may be getting in too soon ot too aggressively.
The key is to know this!
Here are some great 15 minute set ups from Autochartist:

This is a set up that has already followed through but the reason I think it will be one to wath is because it’s trading inside the forecast region which will be resistance.  If this time frame begins to pull back, there could be some corrective opportunites on the 30 ro 60.

I love this look because in any trending set up there are three possible entries and two that I look for in particular.  First and this is should be the first consideration, is the trend follow.  Look for weakness and selling pressure at the downtrend line resistance line (green).  The other consideration will be a breakout through the green line as a trend reversal.

The aussie is setting up a similar set up to the canada.  Instead it’s an uptrend and the support line (blue) is where buying support would be expected to step in.

Crude Oil Tumbles Early
Posted on January 20, 2009 at 13:06 in Price actions by Raghee HornerNo Comments »

Crude has rebounded this morning BUT not before it sold off early as the Asian/European overlap ended.

The push down to 33.00 was not long lived as traders rallied the market up from that major psychological number.  Crude has been moving and is dependable to react to the “00″ as has been the case on the climb up and now on the $100-plus sell off.
While prices have once again found some footing north of 34.00 the U.S. Dollat Index and the USD/CAD have reacted to the morning’s bearishness.

The U.S. Dollar is currently trading above 86.00.  Inauguration euphoria?  Likely no.  Europe and the U.K. continue to have a flood of bad news and data and the U.S. Dollar is simply rallying on it.


The USD/CAD Stall at 2500 Sets Up a Correction Buy
Posted on January 15, 2009 at 14:55 in Chart patterns, Price actions by Raghee HornerNo Comments »

The dollar-canada is on the strong side of the Wave on all my timeframes and the uptrend is great…but only if you are already long right?  Well, I have already scaled out of my initial entry and I am looking for a way back in.  In this  uptrending market, I will wait for a swing buy.

The rising wedge chart pattern alert is confirmation of my thinking and the support of the lower uptrend line (blue) set up my chance.  
Here’s my visual confirmation of the 60 minute’s uptrend and support using my Wave.

The uptrend is valid as long as 1) the clock angle is twelve to two and 2) prices remain above the botom line of the Wave (34ema low).

hefeiddd

Posted on January 24, 2009 at 19:36 in Price actions by Raghee Horner8 Comments »
“Grab” charts are a visual cue to let you know at a glance whether prices are trading within, above, or below the Wave.  It works on the MT4 platform and as far as I can tell any version of the MT4 platform.  This is nothing more than the same color coding that has been a part of my eSignal plug for about seven years.  it’s not a system or anything like that…let me be clear about that…although certainly there are system ideas that could be
(click to enlarge the chart)


Thanks to Mistigri.net for the MT4 programming.

Short Term Chart Patterns Key to Early & Aggressive Entries
Posted on January 24, 2009 at 4:10 in Chart patterns by Raghee HornerNo Comments »

I usually don’t trade off short term time frames but now and again, especially when the pairs are trending strongly up or down, the best way to capitalize on corrections will often be the 15 minute time frame.
And that’s not to say that momentum set ups aren’t effective on th 15 minute, they are!  In fact when the 30 or 60 minute doesn’t give me a consolidation/congestion cycles, it’s the 15 minute that will be the time frame that is the only way to enter the breakout/breakdown.
I usually feel that 15 minute charts are aggressive in momentum and swing entries because they are the alerts that will show up first…and that’s both the strength and weakness of the short term.  You may be getting in with the only opportunity or you may be getting in too soon ot too aggressively.
The key is to know this!
Here are some great 15 minute set ups from Autochartist:

This is a set up that has already followed through but the reason I think it will be one to wath is because it’s trading inside the forecast region which will be resistance.  If this time frame begins to pull back, there could be some corrective opportunites on the 30 ro 60.

I love this look because in any trending set up there are three possible entries and two that I look for in particular.  First and this is should be the first consideration, is the trend follow.  Look for weakness and selling pressure at the downtrend line resistance line (green).  The other consideration will be a breakout through the green line as a trend reversal.

The aussie is setting up a similar set up to the canada.  Instead it’s an uptrend and the support line (blue) is where buying support would be


Posted on January 20, 2009 at 13:06 in Price actions by Raghee HornerNo Comments »

not before it sold off early as the Asian/European overlap ended.

The push down to 33.00 was not long lived as traders rallied the market up from that major psychological number.  Crude has been moving and is dependable to react to the “00″ as has been the case on the climb up and now on the $100-plus sell off.
While prices have once again found some footing north of 34.00 the U.S. Dollat Index and the USD/CAD have reacted to the morning’s bearishness.

The U.S. Dollar is currently trading above 86.00.  Inauguration euphoria?  Likely no.  Europe and the U.K. continue to have a flood of bad news and data and the U.S. Dollar is simply rallying on it.


The USD/CAD Stall at 2500 Sets Up a Correction Buy
Posted on January 15, 2009 at 14:55 in Chart patterns, Price actions by Raghee HornerNo Comments »

The dollar-canada is on the strong side of the Wave on all my timeframes and the uptrend is great…but only if you are already long right?  Well, I have already scaled out of my initial entry and I am looking for a way back in.  In this  uptrending market, I will wait for a swing buy.

The rising wedge chart pattern alert is confirmation of my thinking and the support of the lower uptrend line (blue) set up my chance.  
Here’s my visual confirmation of the 60 minute’s uptrend and support using my Wave.

The uptrend is valid as long as 1) the clock angle is twelve to two and 2) prices remain above the botom line of the Wave (34ema low).

hefeiddd

Posted on January 24, 2009 at 19:36 in Price actions by Raghee Horner8 Comments »
“Grab” charts are a visual cue to let
(click to enlarge the chart)


Thanks to Mistigri.net for the MT4 programming.





I love this look

The









The uptrend is valid as long as 1) the clock angle is twelve to two and 2) prices remain above the botom line of the Wave (34ema low).

hefeiddd

click to enlarge the chart)

Thanks to Mistigri.net for the MT4 programming.
Short Term Chart Patterns Key to Early & Aggressive Entries
Posted on January 24, 2009 at 4:10 in Chart patterns by Raghee HornerNo Comments »

I usually don’t trade off short term time frames but now and again, especially when the pairs are trending strongly up or down, the best way to capitalize on corrections will often be the 15 minute time frame.
And that’s not to say that momentum set ups aren’t effective on th 15 minute, they are!  In fact when the 30 or 60 minute doesn’t give me a consolidation/congestion cycles, it’s the 15 minute that will be the time frame that is the only way to enter the breakout/breakdown.
I usually feel that 15 minute charts are aggressive in momentum and swing entries because they are the alerts that will show up first…and that’s both the strength and weakness of the short term.  You may be getting in with the only opportunity or you may be getting in too soon ot too aggressively.
The key is to know this!
Here are some great 15 minute set ups from Autochartist:

This is a set up that has already followed through but the reason I think it will be one to wath is because it’s trading inside the forecast region which will be resistance.  If this time frame begins to pull back, there could be some corrective opportunites on the 30 ro 60.

I love this look because in any trending set up there are three possible entries and two that I look for in particular.  First and this is should be the first consideration, is the trend follow.  Look for weakness and selling pressure at the downtrend line resistance line (green).  The other consideration will be a breakout through the green line as a trend reversal.

hefeiddd

hefeiddd

Posted on January 20, 2009 at 13:06 in Price actions by Raghee HornerNo Comments »
Crude has rebounded this morning BUT not before it sold off early as the Asian/European overlap ended.

The push down to 33.00 was not long lived as traders rallied the market up from that major psychological number.  Crude has been moving and is dependable to react to the “00″ as has been the case on the climb up and now on the $100-plus sell off.
While prices have once again found some footing north of 34.00 the U.S. Dollat Index and the USD/CAD have reacted to the morning’s bearishness.

The U.S. Dollar is currently trading above 86.00.  Inauguration euphoria?  Likely no.  Europe and the U.K. continue to have a flood of bad news and data and the U.S. Dollar is simply rallying on it.

The USD/CAD Stall at 2500 Sets Up a Correction Buy
Posted on January 15, 2009 at 14:55 in Chart patterns, Price actions by Raghee HornerNo Comments »

The dollar-canada is on the strong side of the Wave on all my timeframes and the uptrend is great…but only if you are already long right?  Well, I have already scaled out of my initial entry and I am looking for a way back in.  In this  uptrending market, I will wait for a swing buy.

The rising wedge chart pattern alert is confirmation of my thinking and the support of the lower uptrend line (blue) set up my chance.  
Here’s my visual confirmation of the 60 minute’s uptrend and support using my Wave.

The uptrend is valid as long as 1) the clock angle is twelve to two and 2) prices remain above the botom line of the Wave (34ema low).


Trends and Set Ups on the Fiber
Posted on January 14, 2009 at 17:44 in Chart patterns, Price actions by Raghee HornerNo Comments »

This is “Chartology” and I’ve always felt the best way to find and manage trades is based on price charts.  So let’s dissect the EUR/USD aka the fiber and look at what it’s likely to do next and what price points worth watching.
The EUR/USD has been selling off as the U.S. Dollar Index has been steadily climbing through two key resistance levels:  the 84.00 and 84.20 psychological levels.  Next to watch for the greenback is the 84.50 to 84.63 area.
The fiber has broken down through the 3200 level and not found any push of buyers to get it back over this once strong support level.  The break down has accelerated over the past three trading sessions and today brings to first stall — the candle could result in a doji (pause) candle — in the sell off.  This weakness in this market is going to key off the U.S. Dollar strength as the flight to quality continues…

The .786 Fibonacci level is waiting near the minor psychological 3020 level.  Today’s low is 3094 as there was a brief pierce of 3100 but buyers we’re ready and eager to support this “00″.
So what are the set ups?  When the market is trending, as the intraday 180 and 240 minute EUR/USD are, the best play is the the “trend follow” or swing on corrections (bounces) while the downtrend is intact.

There was a swing short opportunity this morning on the 180 minute chart. This is one of the five time frames that I track along with the 30, 60, 240, and daily.
Here’s a look at the 240 with Autochartist:

The trending market confirms the channel down pattern on the 240 minute chart and so trend follow plays would be shorts off the resistance (green) downtrend line.  But this chart as well as the 180 minute above also allow me to be ready for reversal of the trend.  On the 180 I will look for a break above 3420 and on the 240 channel down pattern, I will look for a break above 3560.


Revisiting the rising wedge on the cable: How to play a trending pattern reversal
Posted on January 12, 2009 at 18:05 in Uncategorized by Raghee Horner2 Comments »


Remember this alert from a couple posts ago?  scroll down
Now with the cable selling off sharply through the support of the rising wedge now what?

The two uptrend lines I have drawn are representative of the reversal and sell-off and they represent the reversal play from the breakdown of the wedge pattern.
Remember:  Every trending pattern can be played as 1) trend follow and 2) trend reversal.  In this case there was opportunity for both.


A look at patterns in the USD/JPY and EUR/JPY
Posted on January 12, 2009 at 17:47 in Chart patterns by Raghee Horner1 Comment »

Here are two set ups on the end-of-day charts:

This is a classic swing short off downtrend line resistnace.  The asymmetriacl triangle pattern on the EUR/JPY can be played short off the ceiling - this would be an “inside the range” play as prices bounce within the pattern itself.

Both these set ups are curerntly setting up as prices are weaker.  Here’s the relationshit between the USD/JPY and EUR/JPY:

Competitive devaluation anyone?
There is a 50 basis point cut that’s been baked in to the cake in the Euro…the credit story out of Spain is leading the way after the country of Spain’s credit has been put on watch by the S&P.
You can see the yen gaining against the euro as this story unfold.
We’ll look the weakness in the euro in the next post.
Check out other patterns set ups right here at FXStreet here or try a 21 day free trial with the free INTRO video series here.

hefeiddd

Posted on January 7, 2009 at 16:43 in Chart patterns, Price actions by Raghee HornerNo Comments »
The cable on the 60 minute chart is climbing within the rising wedge pattern on the intraday uptrend…exactly the type of play I’m looking for when I want to trend follow.


The green candles indicate that prices are trading above the Wave and ofcourse you wouldn’t need that visual cue in this situation because the higher lows (support) are obvious.
The play here is to wait for the pullback and trigger a long with that.  A pullback to where?  The support of the top line of the Wave would be on spot but the problem with that it is is far, far south of where prices are now.  The other option is to use the last major move and pull a Fibo off it:

I’m not usually a fan of a .25 correction for an entry (too shallow) so the .382 is what I’d be watching PLUS it’s got the support of the 1.5100 “00″ behind it which is always good.
- Raghee

EUR/JPY Triangle Set Up to Watch
Posted on January 7, 2009 at 16:20 in Chart patterns, Price actions by Raghee HornerNo Comments »


This is a rather large pattern with the breakout level at 127.70 and the breakdown levels at 125.20.  The market cycle is neutral and prices are still trading within the wider part of the triangle.  A triangle is a self-limiting pattern and as prices continue towards the “narrows” of the pattern a break basically becomes inevitable as prices will eventually break because there is no where else left to go.

The blue candles on the chart above signal a sideways market as the candle paints blue only when the close is inside the Wave itselft.  Taking a market cycle reading of neutral — especially after a series of blue candles — is reliable.
This pattern has some ways to go before it will appear on my “proximity radar”.  In the meanwhile it’s a set up that can sit on the back burner.  The main thing here is that with this kind of *heads up* I can be proactive about this play.
- Raghee


Daily versus 30 minute USD/JPY Set Ups
Posted on January 6, 2009 at 19:47 in Chart patterns, Price actions by Raghee HornerNo Comments »

Dualing set ups!  Time for a closer look:
Here’s the view of the Autochartist alert.

The falling wedge pattern triggered by breaking the resistance of the (green) downtrend line and has reached the “Forecast” area which is resistance.  The buy is still valid but I’m going to have to sit through the curernt  intraday pullback.

So now wait?

The 30 minute chart is setting up a potential short on today’s pullback with a break through 93.65.  Wait for the weakness before pulling the trigger.
You’ll notice that I am playing around with some different studies here but they are not new.  This is the Wave set up as I described in my first book back in ‘04 and the way I traded futures for about ten years before that.
More on this later…
Just some charts to ponder.
- Raghee


« Newer posts – Older posts »

hefeiddd

Posted on December 22, 2008 at 18:50 in Chart patterns by Raghee HornerNo Comments »
….here’s a great set up to capitalize on that weakness.  The USD/CHF moves directionally with the U.S. Dollar Index so as the dollar weakens the franc strengthens against it and you get the push lower on the chart below.

Watch for 1.0900 support as price approach the major psychological level of support.

“One-Thing-Leads-To-Another” Chart Pattern Set Ups
Posted on December 18, 2008 at 19:58 in Chart patterns by Raghee HornerNo Comments »

While waiting for a longer term time frame set up to trigger you’ll often find that short term charts hold the key to getting there.  That’s the case with the trend follow on the daily dollar-yen and the 240 minute falling wedge below.

Consider that the daily chart needs a rally to reach the downtrend line resistance and simulataneouly a break through resistance on teh 240 minute chart would be a first step in that move.  That’s why it’s called “one thing leads to another” and why there can be a longer term short set up while playing an intraday long set up as in the case of the falling wedge alert.


The USD/JPY Downtrend and the Continuation Channel Down
Posted on December 16, 2008 at 21:48 in Chart patterns by Raghee Horner1 Comment »

How are you playing the downtrend in the JPY/USD?

The dollar-yen on the daily chart shows what we’ve known for some time:  The USD/JPY is in a downtrend as the yen strengthens against the dollar.  So what’s the play here?
First, as long as the trend is down I’m looking for a short off a ceiling.  The short would be set up by a bounce in the downtrend - in other words a short off short-term strength.
- Raghee

hefeiddd

Posted on October 23, 2008 at 17:54 in Uncategorized by Raghee HornerNo Comments »
I’m not looking to call a top…BUT the 30 minute chart of the USD/CAD is setting up a potential breakdown.  The market cycle has transitioned to a sideways Wave and with the MACD Histogram firmly negative, the pre-confirmation is to the downside.

Crude oil will likely hold the fate of the follow through.  Today’s pause in the relentless uptrend is tempered only by the bit of strength in today’s crude oil trading; currently crude is at 68.05.

If the climb can take us higher towards 70, there’s a good chance that the consolidation here in the Canada will turn into a break lower on this short term 30 mnute chart.

Just remember that the only reason I am looing short is because of the negative MACD-H that is accompanying the sideways price action.  If the MACD-H goes positive then it’s a pre-confirmed buy waiting for the trigger.

The trigger is if price can break first, the 55EMA and then the green horizontal support line I have drawn.

- Raghee

Crude Oil Below $70
Posted on October 22, 2008 at 23:27 in Price actions by Raghee HornerNo Comments »

The new, low crude oil levels seem to be flying under the radar amidst the problems on Wall Street and the congressional hearings.
It certainly isn’t hurting the U.S. Dollar…

This dollar strength is killing the fiber…

and as much as I wanted to step in and catch a falling knife on the weekly chart…

It just wasn’t meant to be.  
I was really hoping to see a break to the upside when the market cycle went sideways on the 240 minute chart.  I got whipsawed for a quick stop out o the 30th of October and didn’t get another set up as the fiber just didn’t give me the signal to act.

- Raghee

Another look at the cable.
Posted on October 17, 2008 at 3:00 in Chart patterns by Raghee HornerNo Comments »


The short term 60 minute set up outlined in the last post has triggered and although it tested my patience, ended with a nice outcome.  Next.
The 240 minute time frame is consolidating and the set up is a triangle in an distribution cycle.

The MACD Histogram has just gone positive but is far from solidly confirmed above the zero line.

If prices head lower it would be very easy for the MACD to negative at this point.

As long as the market cycle is sideways, look to play the breakout to either side.

- Raghee

GBP/USD Swing Buy on 60 min.
Posted on October 14, 2008 at 17:41 in Uncategorized by Raghee HornerNo Comments »

The cable has pulled back to Wave support on the 60 minute chart.  Add that to the current mark up trend cycle on that time frame and you have a swing buy set up off the 1.7457 level.

This buy trigger is occuring within an overall (daily) bear market so in essence this is a short term time frame play on a bounce.

The daily chart correction could certainly add up to what I call a “one thing leads to another” set up where the 60 minute buy is exactly what would be needed to play a daily short off resistance (trend follow).

I will upload some video pertaining to this set up later today.
- Raghee


The canada is giving us a chance here…
Posted on October 13, 2008 at 14:44 in Price actions by Raghee Horner2 Comments »

The USD/CAD has been running higher like it has booster rockets at its side.  At these heights all I can do is wait for a pullback to engage the uptrend and seize the opportunity to buy strength.

The opportunity is setting up as a momentum trade on the 60 minute chart.  Now this sideways action by no means guarantees a break downward, but I’m taking my cue from the negative MACD Histogram and am playing an aggressive short from the 1585 level and would love to see a second breakdown as prices trade lower through 1495 thus breaking the “00″ psychological level.

All this would lead to the swing trade buy I really want on the 240…

A pullback to the top line of my Wave — just as long as it is still in a 12 to2 o’clock angle – will trigger a buy.

- Raghee

I’m Waiting for Dollar Index Re-test of Support
Posted on October 3, 2008 at 0:34 in Price actions by Raghee HornerNo Comments »

I have to admit that I have literally and figuratively “gone fishing” in terms of engaging these crazy markets this week…so much so that I have fled to Dallas for a mini-vacation to keep from getting involved in the market’s flurry…and fury.
I do have 52 week high/low alerts and many have gone off this week (EUR/USD, EUR/JPY. AUD/USD, Nasdaq Comp., NYSE Comp…) but it’s the U.S. Dollar that I am watching as it pierces the big psychological 80.00 decade level.

I will be watching the 80.00 level closely (on the daily chart) for a re-test.  Breaking up through 80.00 shows that the ceiling can be broken, but that is NOT the same thing as this ceiling becoming a floor.  Price action must establish that.

Realize that it is not inherent strength in the greenback…rather it is comparatively strong when looking at the Euro and that has the EUR/USD tanking (current support is at 3800) pushing the Dollar Index higher.  

October, November, and December Fed Funds futures have a 25 basis point cut fully discounted and a 50 basis point cut as a possibility.  This would be dollar bearish, but greenback bulls don’t care.

The 700b rescue plan is really going to be a 1.5t (trillion) dollar plan before we know…history tells us these initial estimates represent half of what is typically going to be spent.  The Fed will lower rates to 1.75 or 1.50%.  If crude oil bounces at the 90.51 low, head’s up!  But let’s not forget the other side of the dollar argument…Is the decoupling theory unraveling?  Is that the fuel for the USD rally?   Read this artcile from Reuters.

Are dollar buyers bullish because the are long…or long because they are bullish?  I am thinking that there are an incredible number of stops sitting between 80.00 and 80.80.  And we all know the market moves in the direction of the greatest number of stops…

I’d love to hear what you think…

- Raghee

Guest Post: “You…Me…The “Two W’s” ….and Expectation” by CVJ
Posted on September 29, 2008 at 0:47 in Uncategorized by Raghee Horner4 Comments »


“You…Me…The “Two W’s” ….and Expectation”

We are facing a historical climate in the financial sectors of our country, and after all the analysts and pundits have their say…it is clearly emerging that the Citizenry of America is having their say as well. Pick up your morning newspaper…or turn on the TV at any time of day or night….and we are seeing constant opines from our neighbors around the country concerning Washington and Wall Street.

…As if we are truly “disconnected” from them…..like the “Two W’s” are seemingly separate entities from the citizens who fund them, and the constituents they represent.


In the same fashion we as Traders view intermarket relationships as resources in our endeavors…..the “Two W’s” are searching for similar relationships in analyzing,  explaining, and justifying their fates.


What is it they are expecting this massive monetary package to do? Of course…the rationale is to stabilize the U.S….albeit the World’s financial system. But this is the rationale…the reasoning…….what is their Expectation ???


And here….everyone…lies my “built-in Lesson”……


When you are involved in your own trading endeavors….do you consciously think of what YOUR expectations are?


Of course…we all can justify the whys, hows, reasons, for why we placed the trade….but is our working process really done there? What are we expecting from the trade?


Do you expect to not be stopped out?……..expect not to be immediately wrong?……expect the position to hit your targets and exits and be successful?


I propose that in this moment of Expectation… that the real work begins. Our mental stability and psychological make-up begin their processes after we pull the trigger….


I try to look back on all of my trading and try to remember what I was expecting from the trade…the entire process. Winning or losing is only the first conclusion we have. The final conclusion is how far off or how close to “The Mark” we were on the anatomy of placing a trade.


So try to take a look back on your own trading work….and see how many of your own “Expectations” were either met or led astray.


The self-actualizing aspect of this can greatly improve your own abilities to analyze the ONLY Trader you really know……..Yourself.
by CVJ

—————————————————————————————————————————–
Have a comment, question or a post you’d like to share here at Chartology.  Send it to me at ragheehorner@yahoo.com.  Let’s start the discussion.  Get off the bench and into the game!
- Raghee
—————————————————————————————————————————–




Trading the correlation between the canada and crude
Posted on September 26, 2008 at 17:51 in Price actions by Raghee HornerNo Comments »

The canada and crude are being watched closely as both are sitting near key decision levels.
So what’s going on in oil going into the weekend.  It’s quiet in the pit.  I’m looking specifically at the Dec. contract as that’s the month I’m short.

The bottom line of the Wave has help buyers in check but there certainly hasn’t been a sell-off as the U.S. Dollar Index continues to trade within Monday’s wide range.  My short position is just sitting…but boredom is and has never been a reason to exit.  However, if the market cycle shifts it will get my attention and if prices rally up through the top line of my Wave, my trade is no longer valid and I’m out.
The canada has me looking at a short off the Wave which means that the crude oil market will have to rally and this is opposition to my crude oil short…I have to be aware of that as I am trading both commodities and the forex pair.

I’m looking for a short off a hit from the bottom line of the Wave and that will initiate my short - as long as the market cycle is still down (four to six o’clock Wave angle).
So here I am, between a rock and hard place but with the understanding that if my crude oil trade fizzles out with a USD/CAD downtrend, the USD/CAD trade could be a viable entry.  Now here’s one more scenario and it’s not ideal but it is one I must consider if I am to short the canada, and that would be a break down through the support of the 233 LDL (Lazy Days Line).
- Raghee


The U.S. Dollar sits and waits for D.C.
Posted on September 25, 2008 at 22:34 in Uncategorized by Raghee Horner2 Comments »

Another day of waiting to see whether the groundhog sees his shadow…only this time the groundhog is Congress.  With all the closed door talks all that we can do is sit and wait.

The question I keep getting is what the 700b bailout will do to the dollar.  I am split on that as I think the move could be bullish OR bearish depending on perception of the bailout worldwide.  Any significant cash infusion one one hand could deflate the dollar but at the same time, could this also give the world a chance to regain confidence in U.S. securities?
The dollar shows this “wait and see” psychology as there are two issues…FIRST, will there be a decision before tomorrow’s 3:00pm “deadline” and TWO, what will the final bill look like?
- Raghee


Failed Swings.
Posted on September 21, 2008 at 21:52 in Uncategorized by Raghee HornerNo Comments »

The timing for this particular post is good since Friday the price action on the USD/CAD pushed below the bottom line of the Wave.  

Here’s where a failed swing meets the opportunity to be a trend reversal.  Now think about WHY the swing was merited in the first place.  The trade sets up because the trend was 12 to 2.  The trigger is when price touched the support of the Wave itself.  Now it’s valid as long as 1) the trend is in place and 2) prices stay above the bottom line of the Wave.
The trend reversal which is most often set up by a failed swing is a short as prices break the bottom line of the Wave with at least a -100 reading on the CCI.  I call it the Wave/CCI set up, or Wave reversal set up.  
Secondarily we must consider both the U.S. Dollar and the crude oil market.

This bounce is crude oil strengthened the Canadian Dollar and weakened the U.S. Dollar resulting in the deeper pullback.  The break of support requires more crude strength and greenback weakness.  I am looking to short crude oil as it trades into 107.50-108.00.
Currently the USD/CAD is resting on Lazy Days support at the 55ema.
- Raghee


« Newer posts – Older posts »

hefeiddd

Posted on September 17, 2008 at 0:37 in Chart patterns by Raghee Horner4 Comments »
I like breakout trading, it allows me to take advantage of a move as price breaks congestion or consolidation.
These set ups must first and foremost, set up in a sideways market, which for me means a sideways, three o’clock Wave angle.
Now consider a few scenarios.  Since the forex is a 24 hour market, there are times that we can miss trades.  Maybe you’ve taken the trade and have either run out of lots to scale out of or been trailing stopped out.
There could be any number of reasons that we are now looking for another way into the USD/CAD.
Here’s the USD/CAD as it is today.

The trend is now up.  I have also drawn in the Autochartist pattern alert so you can see the market cycle as it was at the time - which set up the momentum entry long.

Now I am transitioning to swing (trend following) trading.
The play now is buying into the dip back into the top line of the Wave.
You can use the Lazy Days Lines to help with trade management…

- Raghee
Tags: autochartist, Chart patterns

Back from Las Vegas!
Posted on September 15, 2008 at 1:57 in Uncategorized by Raghee HornerNo Comments »

I had a great time out in Las Vegas!  But I am so glad to be back!  This is the first week of my new schedule here at FXStreet with my Chart Pattern Trading webinar on Tuesdays and my premium webinar on my Forex Market Pulse on Fridays.
Las Vegas was hectic and fun as usual.  I did a four hour presentation on trading covering my Lazy Days Lines and Market Pulse.  Both of which you can learn about each week here at FXStreet.  I saw my good buddie CVJ in Vegas and had a chance to sit and talk with him about trading and the markets and more about what he feels a contributor here at FXSTreet should offer.  As one of the original FXStreet members I take his advice and will be implementing more about those ideas here.  Thanks CVJ!
I also had a chance to hang out with my good buddies at Interbank FX and their new Chief Currency Strategist Rob Booker.  Rob is one of those rare genuine people that I consider lucky to call a friend.  And without spilling the beans, he is working on some things that are really going to blow your mind.  I for one can’t wait to see the kinds of things he’s cooking up out there at IBFX.
By the way, I love the new blog layouts.  Kudos to FXStreet for the redesign!
So what am I going to be doing more of here at my Chartology blog.  Well for one, I want to get more chart pattern set ups here and incorporate my Lazy Days Lines as well.  My goal going into 2009 is to make more objective tools available to traders so that they can make decisions on trading based upon chart levels with less discretion.  You know discretionary trading for new traders in intimidating.  New traders certainly cannot trade with the confidence of experienced, seasoned traders as confidence comes from understanding and confirmation of the tools and set ups.
I also will be spending more time on what I think is the most important concept I teach:  Market Cycles!
So I think that Vegas was a great way for me to kick off this new week, new schedule, and new blog design.
- Raghee

Economics and the Charts
Posted on September 10, 2008 at 18:24 in Uncategorized by Raghee HornerNo Comments »

I’m sitting in Salt Lake City Intl airport waiting for my flight to Vegas and thought I would share a few ideas from the past couple days.  I was talking with a friend of mine and greattrader…and we were discussion economics and their place within an overall trade set up.
Economics, Fundamentals, News…I think they are most applicable on daily and weekly chart set ups.  As a chartist I certainly don’t ignore the undercurrent of any trade I make.  I think in many ways all good trades begin with an economic story that we understand.  It may not be a complete picture (I don’t think that exists) but we can be as well informed as we can be.  Much of that will be limited by what we UNDERSTAND.
So if a trade or an overal view of the market begins with an economic story, what exactly does tht represent?
I think for shorter time frame set ups it’s impending news.  e.g.  a 30 minute EUR/USD set up and NFP on Thursday night or Friday morning.  For longer term set ups it can be — for example — March ‘09 Fed Fund futures and the U.S. Dollar Index futures.  These are just simple examples…you can dig much deeper and look at many other correlations for getting an economic story you can wrap your brain around.
Looking at your charts with an understanding of not only the psychology but fundamentals effecting them can be helpful - just as long as you wait for price to confirm your research.
- Raghee


I’ll be out in Vegas this week.
Posted on September 10, 2008 at 6:11 in Chart patterns by Raghee HornerNo Comments »

I’ve had some active posting here at the Chartology blog these last few months…but this week I will be out of the office. I’ll be presenting at the Forex Expo in Las Vegas. I’ll be sure to post some pictures and thoughts once the show starts…
- Raghee


” A few thoughts concerning Risk Aversion and NFP..” by CVJ
Posted on September 5, 2008 at 2:54 in Price actions by Raghee HornerNo Comments »

My buddie CVJ had some interesting thoughts about tomorrow’s Non-Farm Payroll and I thought I would share them here at the Chartology blog:
    With such massive activity in the low-yielding  currencies of the Dollar and the Yen…we certainly have an emotionally heavy Marketplace !
    Risk Aversion takes place when the unwinding…decoupling…and non-correlating aspects of "Fear" makes its’ presence known.
    The high-yielding high interest rate pairs begin to look for "safe haven", and repatriate into lower-yielding units like the Dollar and the Yen.
     Risk Appetite is the opposite of this phenomenon….when we see repatriation into the high-yielders, with the " Hollywood Star of the Show" being the Carry Trade concept.
    The ECB and BoE hold rates…my efficient and effective friend, Jean-Claude Trichet,  is rather muted in his ECB Commentary…the massive 3% falloff in Equities and the Dow….Crude still pulling back….do I need to go on?
    This paradigm shift is enough to make your puppy understand the concept of being "averse" to something…….
    Seriously….where does this leave us ahead of the most volatile Data flashpoint in Foreign Exchange…..the Non-Farm Payroll Report ?
    As a Trader, I am choosing to not participate. I have nothing against NFP, or News Trading work for that matter…that is not the relevant question.
    I do follow the NFP each month and really study Fundamentals and the "numbers inside the numbers"….I simply  choose to never taken  positions.
    I choose not to…simply because my trading style and comfort zone simply does not compliment it. If I have maintained logical and sound positions in the first place…the volatility of NFP does not tempt me and it is not needed.
    …And here lies the Lesson…….no technical reasons and complex Fractal analysis…no lack of Fibonacci confluence or charting patterns…..I simply pick and choose my "battles".
    That’s it…..no mystery.
    NFP is…to me…a "battle" I have already won before engagement.
    Every Trader is unique and different…. and it is our psychological levels of comfort that make us so in how we approach this business….
Thank you once again for sharing your ideas my friend!
- Raghee


Where is the EUR/USD going from here?
Posted on September 4, 2008 at 23:04 in Uncategorized by Raghee HornerNo Comments »

The trend has been down since the roll-over through the Wave the end of July.
With a clock angle firmly at 4 to 6 o’clock it’s no time to try to pick a bottom.  If you are looking for a buy, it will be better set up on a time frame that is not in a mark down cycle.
There is no doubt that right now we are testing a thick support level but there is a big, BIG difference between trying to pick the bottom in a market (dumb, dumb, dumb!) and playing a break up through resistance (brilliant!).

EUR/USD daily
IF we get a worse-than-expected NFP number tomorrow it will create in a bounce in the EUR/USD.  I will be looking for a short on the 180 or 240 minute time frames if the set up triggers on the move higher.

EUR/USD 180 minute
And don’t forget that there have been short set ups on the shorter term intraday charts.  This morning there was a 60 minute short that triggered during my Forex in the Morning chat:


EUR/USD 60 minute
There will be key support levels below the "Support/Decision/Area" at the 610EMA Lazy Days Line at 1.4150 and the psychological level "0O0" (triple zero!) at 1.4000.

EUR/USD Daily with Lazy Days Lines
- Raghee

hefeiddd

RagheeMy “Lazy Days” Support, Resistance, and Trend Lines
Posted on September 3, 2008 at 1:14 in Uncategorized by Raghee HornerNo Comments »

We talked about Fibonacci-based moving averages on my post on August 29th.  What’s funny to me is the first time I started calling these my "Lazy Days" support, resistance, and trendlines.  It was on a trip down to one of my favorite restaurants, "Lazy Days" in Islamorada.  
(Islamorada is about halfway between Miami and Key West and one of my favorite get-a-ways…far enough to feel "out of the office" and close enough so that if I need to really be back in the office I can be in just over 120 minutes.)
I am a discretionary trader, that means that the tools I use can be subjective. If there’s one thing that traders are always looking for it’s objectivity and I will be using alternate tools to add more objectivity to my trade entries.  Since I draw most of my lines and levels on my own or with the help of my automated software or Autochartist, I have ways to speed up the time it takes to go through all my forex, futures, and stocks charts.  
On one of my recent trips to my favorite restaurant, I decided to take a look at some of my positions (mainly daily chart trades) while I was at lunch.  I had bought a new laptop a few days earlier and forgot to install my automating software…so I decided to to put my Fibonacci-based moving averages on the charts.  I had plenty of reason to trust these levels as I had plenty of data and chart print outs on them from my "wave development days".
So in between bites of the most delicious coconut-encrusted, snapper sandwich I’ve ever had in my life, I was scanning my charts and saw the support and resistance that the "Lazy Days" Fibonacci-based lines provided.  I quickly noticed that as I drew in my support, resistance, and trendlines manually how often they lined up with the Fibonacci-based moving averages.
I’ll talk more about how to use these lines in the coming days and weeks as it will be a part of my next book, which I am very excited about.
But here’s a few examples of short term momo set ups…since I used so many longer term charts in my August 29th post I want you to see how they work on shorter term intraday charts.


..and here’s the daily on the swissy in a Fibo-squeeze:

and another momo play on the 30 minute dollar-yen:

Try out these "Lazy Days" lines for yourself and see how they are an effective alternative to the more subjective support, resistance, and trendlines levels on your chart.
Tomorrow I’ll be doing a 90 minute live webinar on these tools and more.  You can register free at raghee.com.
Hope to see you there!
- Raghee


Discipline and Conviction, a Chartology Guest Post from CVJ
Posted on September 2, 2008 at 4:30 in Uncategorized by Raghee HornerNo Comments »

While we have increasing volume and the "base foundation" returning to the Currency markets in the next week or two…we have varying degrees of flashpoints to reflect upon. The strengthening and re-emergence of the Dollar…the weakness of the U.K. and Euro-Zone economies…Crude Oil…Central Bank activity, and so much more…the real flashpoint in my view remains the Gustav storm issue…where a fine trading Lesson is built
right in.
This "Lesson" pertains to maintaining the Discipline and Conviction of your own views.
The Gustav issue is a "textbook" example of "Buying the Rumor, Selling the Fact". The trillions of prognosticators have emerged to reveal to us the path, strength, direction, and where landfall will be breached. My instant issue with this is simple….No one knows.
This "true" concept of "not knowing" actually brings me
peace……because I realize I do not HAVE to know. I simply have to stick with my convictions and original sentiments that got me into my trading positions in the first place.
If I am wrong, so be it. If I am stopped out, that is fine. If I am flat and missed an opportunity, so what.
It is much more important for me to never compromise my discipline and trading plans, than to be afraid of being wrong. I will take 100 losing positions that were based on sound logic on all levels of criteria……than 1 profitable trade that was "lucky" because I compromised my overall style, routines, and character.
by guest-blogger CVJ

Thanks buddie!
- Raghee


Fibonacci-based moving averages: Examples on the daily charts.
Posted on August 29, 2008 at 0:09 in Uncategorized by Raghee Horner4 Comments »

I have been using Fibonacci-based moving averages on my charts almost as long as I have used the Wave (Raghee’s Cycle Indicator) on my charts and on all my time frames.
The initial testing that I did before deciding upon the 34 EMA H/L/C had me experimenting with the Fibonacci series up to 144 and beyond.  The number beyond 144 were ruled out as they were to slow to be nimble enough market cycle indicators however I did keep the research on the 233, 377, 610, 987, 1597…all the way to the 6765 because of the dynamic support and resistance they consistently identified, especially on the daily chart.
Throughout my trading I have always incorporated Fibonacci in my trading mainly with the Wave and the Fibonacci retracements and extensions.  Fibonacci is a mathematical rule of nature, and it is that belief that has fueled my pursuit of these numbers.  But that certainly is not enough to stick with them.  The reason I do is because I see the levels these numbers help me project act as effective support and resistance levels time and time again.  It’s that confirmation that created my confidence.
Since seeing is believing here are a few examples to take a look at.  Hopefully they will pique your curiosity and you will begin experimenting with these moving averages in your own trading.
Just as my Wave is made up of exponential moving averages, so are the other Fibonacci based moving averages on my charts.





Remember just like every trading indicator, these moving averages identify support and resistance.  It will be your strategy and the market trend that will dictate what you do with these "decision levels".
- Raghee


Asian session set up: EURJPY 15 min. Continuation Rising Wedge
Posted on August 27, 2008 at 20:46 in Chart patterns by Raghee HornerNo Comments »

I’ve been scanning the cross-rates today which is something that I don’t do daily as most of my active forex trading are dollar-correlated pairs.
Since the dollar is range-bound and even moving with the crude oil market due to independent, major news in each I thought the timing was right.  You can read more about the current state of my dollar-correlated trading here and also learn about when I look to stop trading and what the clues are right now.
In the meanwhile, let’s keep an eye on the 15 minute EUR/JPY as we close in on the Asian session open.



The trend is up and the play I am interested in is the short.  Why?  Because the EUR/JPY has a double top at 161.52.  Ofcourse a breakout/continuation is certainly a valid entry but a reversal short with the ceiling overhead and the "50" pip psychological level would be moving with the larger trend.
Remember though that a trending pattern has three possible entries:  reversal, trend follow, and breakout. Don’t ignore that the trend continuation also can be played with a swing off the top lines of the Wave at 161.20.
- Raghee


« Newer posts – Older posts »

hefeiddd

Posted on August 26, 2008 at 21:18 in Price actions by Raghee HornerNo Comments »
I received some really good emails regarding the prior post regarding the swing trade and I thought I would share the gist of them here since a couple thoughtful points were brought up.  Thanks for your feedback.
The first and I think most important point was that the trade, when it did finally trigger during the Asian session, represented a 21 pips risk at entry.  The point of validity (stop loss) on swing trades is the opposite side of the RCI (aka Wave) plus five.  In this case that price at entry was 109.61.  Remember since the RCI is dynamic resistance in a downtrend, that price level can change.
I also liked many of the emails I received mentioned the fact that there was a second chance short entry at between 8:00 and 8:30am EST that morning.  And that is correct!

The RCI/CCI short did not follow through immediately and offered a chance for selling that morning long before the swing short set up.  While that has no direct bearing on the swing short getting stopped out, it does have a bearing on being able to capitalize on the initial set up and playing during a more reasonable hour of the day.
- Raghee

Swing Short Set Up on the USD/JPY
Posted on August 25, 2008 at 23:08 in Price actions by Raghee HornerNo Comments »

The 30 minute dollar-yen has turning over and begun trending lower.  The initial set up was a Raghee’s Cycle Indicator/Commodity Channel Index (20) short.
The trigger came at 2:30am to 3:00am EST.

Now, if you’re anything like me…you’re probably sleeping.  My active trading hours are roughly 7am to Noon. So as with any 24 hour market, you have to have ways to set up another trade.  In this situation the early morning turn over led to a down trending market and a four to six o’clock angle on the RCI.
Now I’m looking at a swing short if prices can bounce to the bottom line of the RCI (the 34 period EMA on the low).

A couple things are going for this entry.  First there’s a good chance it will trigger during the Asian session, and second, I love the "50" psych number as resistance as the current number we’re looking at is the 109.49 level.
- Raghee


Capitalizing on a Stopped Out Swing Trade
Posted on August 22, 2008 at 0:05 in Price actions by Raghee Horner2 Comments »

I’m posting this partly for a comment left in the previous post ("Trade Management on the EUR/JPY 240").
While I am going to walk through them step by step, keep in mind that these are two separate trades.
Playing a trend reversal trade is especially challenging when the previous trade was a trend following swing entry that was stopped out, however, entering RCI reversal trades are quite often done after a swing trade stops out.
I posted a 240 minute EUR/USD swing short which — with the weakness in the U.S. Dollar today — broke through the point of validity.
If you want to see the details of the U.S. Dollar and crude oil moves, click here to read the post.
I’m going to walk you through what is essentially a stopped out swing trade that triggers a RCI/CCI reversal entry.

1)  This is the entry for the short.  Yes, the clock angle of the cycle was not the best for a swing as the downtrend was weakening, but none-the-less it was basically an aggro swing short at 1.4771.
2)  Prices did follow through the "00" and this did allow for an exit in front of the "00" at 1.4705.  The low was 1.4669.  This price action did set in motion the process for two keys orders: the exit and ratcheting the stop from a risk based to a break even
3)  Prices hit the break even stop (five pips above the entry = 1.4476)  You’re out of the short trade.
4)  Price continue to rally up through the top line of the RCI with CCI (20) confirmation, this is the buy trigger for the RCI/CCI (aka Wave /CCI) entry
5)  The initial profit target.  Just like the profit target in the short was based on stepping in front of size at the "00" same on the upside.  Step out in front of the 1.4900 at 1.4895.  
- Raghee
Questions? Join me each Tuesday at my weekly webinar here at at FXStreet.


Trade Management on the EUR/JPY 240
Posted on August 21, 2008 at 19:54 in Price actions by Raghee Horner1 Comment »

After the swing short entry off the bottom line of the RCI (Raghee’s Cycle Indicator aka The Wave) we’re now in the enviable position of trade management, no longer risk management.  In other words, we’ve ratcheted the stops up to a trailing stop.

Now you have a few choices.  One would be to use the "50" and "00" levels as profit targets, basic but easy and effective.
I don’t see a good "last major move" for a Fibo to be pulled so that’s not an option.
Finally, you can use the bottom line of the RCI (the 34 period EMA on the low) as a trailing stop.  You can do this once the level would represent at worst a break even level for the trade.
I have highlighted the two "00" levels.  One thing to keep in mind is that unless you are using the bottom line of the RCI, you are probably out on the bounce back up through 161.00 or 161.50.
- Raghee


Chartology Follow-Up on 240 min. EUR/JPY
Posted on August 19, 2008 at 22:13 in Uncategorized by Raghee Horner5 Comments »

It’s a perfect storm and please don’t read into that statement "fool-proof, perfect trade", there’s no such thing.
The prefect storm here starts with the support on the U.S. Dollar Index.

The current pullback to the cycle indicator (aka The Wave) is the trigger I look for when setting up a swing buy.
Next up, the EUR/USD.

The fiber is setting up a swing short of the bottom line.
The EUR/JPY set up we took a look at in the prior Chartology post is setting up my preferred trend follow trade with the bounce.

It’s this same touch on the bottom line of the cycle indicator with the channel down pattern still intact that I am looking to capitalize on.  All three entries are valid and triggered and that’s what makes it a "perfect storm" for me.
The Dollar Index and the EUR/USD make for secondary confirmation for the EUR/JPY trigger.
- Raghee

hefeiddd

RagheeChartology of the Day: Playing the downtrend on the 240 minute chart of the EUR/JPY
Posted on August 19, 2008 at 2:52 in Chart patterns by Raghee Horner2 Comments »

Trending markets has three possible entries:  trend follow, reversal, breakout.  The down channel below is no exception.

The current chart shows that the downward market cycle is starting to lose it’s steepness.  But it’s still in a four to six o’clock angle none-the-less according to the cycle indicator.


There is a low that already created a short term bottom at 161.33.  I’m looking for a bounce to the bottom line of the cycle indicator at 162.64 for a short or a hit on the resistance downtrend of the channel pattern.
A reversal of the pattern would be either a break of the resistance downtrend line and/or the top line of the cycle indicator.
- Raghee


Chartology for Next Week: A Few Set Ups to Watch Monday
Posted on August 16, 2008 at 22:04 in Chart patterns by Raghee HornerNo Comments »

The dollar-yen is heading higher on the 240 as the market cycle is still in an uptrend.  With 111.00 ahead there is an opportunity to play a breakout but since this is a trending market, I’d much rather get long on a correction than a breakout.  A pullback to 110.20 or 110.05 would make a good pullback in order to buy support and follow the trend.  Keep in mind that any trending pattern like the rising wedge does also have the reversal trade waiting on the back burner so a break down through 109.00 would trigger a short on the break on uptrend line support.




I’ve have a key support on the aussie on the daily and 240 minute waiting just above the .8600 level.  Now I have been peeling out of my short position from the 1-2-3 short we talked about here at the Chartology blog and in the Chart Pattern Trading webinars here at FXStreet and if there will be a area of support from which the aussie will base and rally, it the area between 0.8600 and 0.8380.
And just so no one gets the impression that I have some unusual obsession with the 240 time frame…The 60 minute aussie is trading in the narrows of of the triangle pattern that has formed.  The MACD Histogram is currently well above the zero line so I will be looking for the break higher for a trigger to buy.


Finally the swissy on the 240 is playing a lot like the dollar-yen.  A pullback to initially the 1.0900 would be a great corrective entry long.  If you’re looking for a little deeper pullback, the 1.0883 level — which is also the top line the my Cycle Indicator (RCI) — would be a great place to trigger a buy.


As far as "U.S. Dollar harmony" realize the we need a quick pullback on the dollar to initiate the dollar-yen and swissy buys.  As far as  dollar support, which the dollar at the 77.18 closing level on Friday, there will be support at the 77.00 and then again between 76.50 to 76.33.
As I have said often this week, if the dollar rally is to continue it NEEDS to correct (pullback) along the uptrend to attract the next wave of buyers.
- Raghee


If you want to get chart pattern alerts like the ones above, check out Autochartist.  You can get a free 21-day demo here.  


Chartology of the Day: Every Good Entry Needs an Exit
Posted on August 15, 2008 at 0:24 in Uncategorized by Raghee HornerNo Comments »

Thursday, August 14th  6:10pm EST
I often find when talking to traders that an exit is the result of "Aaah!  Get me out! I’m losing money!" or…"Yeeah!  Get me out!  I made some money!"
…hardly a well thought out plan of exit.
I see that most often traders (and investors for that matter) seem to endlessly plan entries but exits become a knee jerk reaction to price either moving for or against their position.  
There are only two types of exits really:   a profit target or a stop loss.  Both in my opinion should be based upon support or resistance in the market, not dollars, not a percentage, not boredom.  You should have a cap as far as what your tolerance for loss is.  For example, a 2% cap for loss is fine but a 2% stop loss is totally random.  If you determine that your max loss is 2% that’s fine but do not place your stop loss based upon that number.  You stop loss should be determined by where the trade is no longer valid and if that is within your 2% cap, great.  If not, don’t take the trade or "cheat in" your stop to a another support or resistance level with the full knowledge that you are working within the point of validity and could be stopped out before the trade become invalid.
This concept of a a trade being invalid is often foreign to many trader who have been placing stops and even profit targets based upon dollar amounts.  Profit targets should be also placed using support and resistance.  If you are long a market, then you are looking up to potential resistance levels for profit target(s).  
Personally I like to enter with multiple lots and exit at predetermined levels.  If the price moves beyond at least my first profit target (preferably my second) I can then consider using a trailing stop and that for me will usually be either Fibonacci Levels, psychological levels or if I really want to give the trend room to move, I will use my RCI (aka the Wave) which is the 34 period EMA on the high, low, and close.
Realize that my risk management is totally tied into my profit target placement.  I ratchet the stop loss as the trade goes in my favor.  When I hit my initial profit target and then move through it (preferably 50% to the next profit target) will move my "risk based" stop loss to a break even - which is typically five pips below my the trade’s entry trigger price, which by the way is not the same as where I got my fill.
The final step as a trade continues in my favor is to transition from a break even stop to a trailing and that’s where you can look to Fibos, psych numbers, the RCI.
Autochartist will also give you a visual cue with their "Prediction Region".


These two charts are a great follow up to my previous post with the EUR/USD set up.  As the fiber broke down the swissy broke up and Autochartist plotted "Prediction Region".
- Raghee


Chartology of the Day: Autochartist EUR/USD Triangle Alert
Posted on August 13, 2008 at 23:22 in Uncategorized by Raghee HornerNo Comments »

Let Autochartist do some of the heavy lifting for you!  It’s going to scan the markets, recognize patterns, and bring them to your attention…which is especially great since it frees you up from your computer monitor(s)!  
Here’s a current alert and the set up.

There is a symmetrical triangle setting up on the 60 minute chart of the EUR/USD going into the Asian session.
The current market cycle sideways so the confirmation for the pattern is there.  This is the first step of pattern confirmation.  A consolidation or congestion pattern must set up in a sideways market!
Since we’re talking about the EUR/USD here, it’s of help to look at the current price action in the U.S. Dollar Index (in grey).  Here’s an overlay of the fiber and the dollar.

The set up is currently slightly pre-confirmed to the upside with the MACD Histogram above the zero line.  However because it is not very strong above the zero level and the pattern is wide enough, the confirmation could easily shift to the downside and a negative MACD Histogram so make the final call at the time of the break…which quite frankly is the most prudent course of action for any momentum set up.
Remember any automation like Autochartist is not designed to take away your decision making, but rather facilitate finding opportunities.  It’s our job to confirm the pattern and set up the trade.  
- Raghee


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hefeiddd

Posted on August 12, 2008 at 21:18 in Price actions by Raghee HornerNo Comments »
Here’s a sample of what was discussed during today’s Chart Pattern Trading webinar.
Fibonacci Levels were the main topic of discussion as well as a quick survey of topics that were requested for future discussion.
Among the topics were:
Money Management
Fibonacci Levels
Futures
…and a few others.  
Sp here are two chartology snapshots from today’s webinar and the set ups.

The cable had a channel down that we were discussing.  Remember when you are setting up trending patterns there are THREE possible entries opportunities:  trend follow on the correction, trend follow on the breakout, and the reversal.

The set up we discussed was one of my favorites:  One Things Leads to Another.  Where an short term bounce could break the downtrend resistance line of the channel for a buy (light green) and then set up the short off the top line of the RCI and major downtrend line (the lower thick blue line).
This is all dependent upon the "market pulse" chart of the dollar as well as it is taking breather today.

We did a Fibonacci work up in the room to show the significance of today’s pause.
———-
Regarding the weekly webinars (and here’s where you can help!) is whether or not
to separate the chart pattern discussion from my forex market pulse
since combining the two often makes for an overwhelming presentation
packed into a mere 30-40 minutes.
Well, I am open to your ideas but for now I am thinking of one Chart
Pattern Trading webinar and a second, Forex Market Pulse webinar.  The
second webinar is ideal for those of you who are interested in how the
dollar, Dow, gold, and crude oil correlate with the U.S. Dollar
correlated majors and commodity currencies.  Knowing this makes a
significant difference in how to analyze key levels, trends,
corrections, and reversals in the forex pairs.
———-
- Raghee

Chartology of the Day: The First Floor and Basement is Next on the Fiber and Cable
Posted on August 7, 2008 at 17:03 in Uncategorized by Raghee HornerNo Comments »

As the U.S. Dollar Index continues to hold support above the key 74.00 level — although it has not been tested! — the 74.50 psychological level has not been broken and so the sellers are still holding tight.  This price action coincides with the support levels being tested in both the EUR/USD and GBP/USD on the heels of their respective rate decisions today.

I’ve marked the support on both charts and you can see the "first floor" and "basement" levels as they are being hit today.

If the U.S. Dollar continues to climb the the downtrend in the fiber and cable will push on, but these levels represent considerable support through ‘08.
I’ll be watching for a potential distribution cycle to develop and if we can set up an inside-the-range at the lows I will post it here at the Chartology blog.
And ofcourse, feel free to join me each Tuesday at 11:00am EST for the Chart Pattern Trading webinar here at FXStreet.
- Raghee

Chartology of the Day: Is the Dollar Going to Continue Higher?
Posted on August 6, 2008 at 17:03 in Uncategorized by Raghee HornerNo Comments »


The distribution cycle of the U.S. Dollar Index would lead me to believe that the 74.31 high will be resistance.  I would expect this area to extend to 74.50 (major psychological number).
We shouldn’t neglect the minor psychology resistance level at 74.20 either.  
Again, it’s the distribution market cycle and and the summer-long range we’ve seen that leads me to focus on the resistance here.  I am long from the bounce of the 71.50 level so this level presents a major shift for me as far as the thinking behind my being long.
There are some significant changes in the fundamentals though.  Crude below 120, the commodity sell-off in the gold and grains certainly have allowed the dollar to rally.  But there is certainly support at the 118.00 level in crude and gold has attracted buyers from 873 to 876.  So the question is:  Is this where the dollar rally begins to find selling resistance.
The Fed Funds futures doesn’t show the likelihood of a hike until January ‘09.  And I think the next level traders are looking at will be the 110.00 decade level and the 109.00 200SMA support in crude. This is a huge support level that the equity and currency markets will be effected by.
- Raghee


A clip from yesterday’s webinar: What to look for in front of FOMC decisions.
Posted on August 6, 2008 at 16:40 in Uncategorized by Raghee HornerNo Comments »

- Raghee


Tommorrow’s Chart Pattern Trading webinar agenda: FIBONACCI LEVELS
Posted on August 4, 2008 at 19:43 in Uncategorized by Raghee HornerNo Comments »

We’re going to talk about Fibonacci levels tomorrow.  There are a few ideas to keep in mind regarding Fibo levels and I am going to outline them now…so here they are in no particular order.
First remember that Fibonacci levels are simply one of the many ways to identify support and resistance.
Second, Fibonacci always assumes a reversal so if you are drawing a Fibo from the last major sell-off you are going to project resistance levels and if you draw them from the lat major rally, you will project support.
Third, you must draw Fibonacci levels from the *subjective* last major move, but at the same time, there is seldom just one Fibonacci set of levels to consider on any chart.
Fourth, Fibonacci levels are usually going to be relevant only on the time frame that you draw them on.  Don’t assume that a Fibo on the 30 minute is necessarily going to be the same on the 60 or 180 and so on - UNLESS the last major move happens to be the same on the other time frames.
Bring able to identify minor highs and lows will help you find the touchpoints of the last major move.
Fibonacci levels have a unique way of "confirming" themselves.  Look how often after you’ve drawn a Fibonacci you will see past support and resistance level line up with the Fibo levels.
Fibonacci is not just a trading tool!  Fibonacci is a mathematical law of nature with application in biology, architecture, chemistry. And since we are applying this law of nature to the markets we are actually measuring human nature (fear & greed) to price movement.  
I’m sure many Fibonacci fans shrieked in delight at the mention of Fibonacci in the Da Vinci Code movie.  (hey I couldn’t have been the ONLY one!)  PS3 fans might have caught the Fibonacci series being sung in Metal Gears Solid 4.  Even the conversion from miles to kilometers is very close to a Fibonacci ratio, the "golden" 1.618!  
Oh yeah…It’s everywhere!  

- Raghee


How to Use Dow 1-2-3’s and Fibonacci to set up trades off significant highs/lows
Posted on July 30, 2008 at 3:37 in Uncategorized by Raghee Horner2 Comments »

I think the title speaks for itself. It’s especially important to understand set ups like this in today’s environment.
This is part one and next we’ll discuss playing intraday 1-2-3’s and minor highs and lows.  I consider all these "patterns within patterns" as often these smaller formations will develop within a larger chart pattern formation.





Dow 1-2-3’s to check out before this Tuesday’s webinar
Posted on July 26, 2008 at 19:01 in Uncategorized by Raghee HornerNo Comments »

A chart is worth a 1000 words…these are Dow reversals off 52 week high.  I’m not one to pick tops (or bottoms) but if you are going to do it…this is the "right" way to pick tops and set up shorts off a trending market.
[url=http://forex.typepad.com/.shared/image.html?/photos/uncategorized/2008/07/26/072508eurdaily_2.gif][/url]



- Raghee


If you are a technical trader or chartist (like me!) you’ve already or should have read about Dow Theory
Posted on July 26, 2008 at 4:46 in Uncategorized by Raghee HornerNo Comments »

I read about Dow Theory years ago and with all the new highs and lows setting in across the markets I trade, I seem to be thinking about quite often these days.
There are six major principles of Dow Theory and my own trading has been inspired and guided by four of the rules.
ONE:  The market has three movements.

TWO:  Trends have three phases
THREE:  The markets discounts all news
FOUR:  Trends exist until definitive signals prove that they have ended
I am going to discuss these four principles in detail at the upcoming Chart Pattern Trading webinar here at FXStreet this coming Tuesday.
If you use chart patterns and price action to decide on your trades, this is a presentation you need to watch.
- Raghee


Four Step Trading: Forex Transcript Info and Follow Me on Twiiter.com
Posted on July 23, 2008 at 19:48 in Uncategorized by Raghee HornerNo Comments »

I have been using this neat little web app for a few weeks now and I think I trust it enough to start doing some constructive posting using it.  You can check it out at http://www.twitter.com/ragheehorner
I’ll be posting quick trading ideas, thoughts, and set ups from time to time…however the Twitter application allows only very short posts of just 140 characters which is great for quick messages but you’re going to have to have a basic understanding of how my trade entries to follow what I’m doing…however no fear! you can learn more about what I do at the weekly Chart Pattern Trading webinar right here at FXStreet each Tuesday at 11:00am EST.  Oh yeah, and it’s free.
Also, if you are new to trading and/or want to learn more about my entries and set ups, feel free to check out the transcript from my January presentation called Four Step Trading: Forex.  You can find it here:  
http://transcripts.fxstreet.com/2008/01/raghee-horners.html
- Raghee


Did the U.S. Dollar Have Any Choice But to Bounce?
Posted on July 23, 2008 at 19:03 in Uncategorized by Raghee HornerNo Comments »

The U.S. Dollar has been bouncing as of late.  And let’s for the sake of clarity discuss briefly the difference between a bounce and a rally.  It’s all in the direction of the Wave.
If the Wave is three o’clock or sideways, then a move higher within that context is simply a bounce.
If the Wave is two to four o’clock, again, just a bounce.
I will refer to a move higher as a rally when the Wave angle is twelve to two o’clock and I will refer to a move lower as a sell-off when the Wave angle is four to six.
Even I will sometimes use these interchangeably but it’s not right and I am writing this as much to remind myself as to you…
So like i said, the dollar had no choice so let’s look at why:

The fact that the U.S. Dollar Index fell to the support of the channel it’s been trading in is certainly reason enough to think that buyers might support the level.  Add to that the two to four o’clock Wave and there is market cycle confirmation of a range-bound market.  I think the main factor is what I have been calling the floor and the basement.
Prices have reached such levels as to attract bargain hunters.  Consider that if we break the "first floor" the basement is next and below that, new all time lows.
I also would factor in the 1.6000 level on the EUR/USD.  This level in the fiber is certainly a major psych level that would be resistance.  And even on the break up through the "000" (TRIPLE zero!) level there has to be a test to confirm that what was once resistance, 1.6000, is now support.  This did not happen so the "000" sent prices lower as sellers push prices lower from this level.  Never assume that a break such as this is automatically support.  Big mistake.

- Raghee


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hefeiddd

Posted on July 17, 2008 at 13:49 in Price actions by Raghee HornerNo Comments »
That’s almost word for word an the first line of an email I received. That makes me think two things, first, I have to bring my crystal ball back from the shop and second, maybe I need to stop giving out my email.
(kidding, kidding!  I love getting emails from traders and students, truly)
I don’t know when, where, and in what language I gave anyone the impression I pick tops or bottoms.  I will occasionally trade range-bound markets - shorting ceiling, buying floors.  But the idea that I will actively look for a short in an uptrend or a buy in a downtrend is the furthest thing from my mind…until I get an email like this.  (You see it feeds the "pig in the head". It gets the "pig" curious.  Hmmm, well since curiosity is a cat killer, is the pig any safer?)
I like to mock up different analysis scenarios on my charts.  Trader role playing…  So this is what I replied to the email and the charts I included.  Now keep in mind, even though I spend the first few sentences of my reply chastising this poor fellow (I’m going to leave that out), the analysis that I sent and am sharing here was serious, I wasn’t playing around.  IF I was a top and bottom picker, here’s how I would do it…

In this example, I am toying around with the idea of a Dow Theory reversal.  Ideally this pattern should rally to a 2 point perhaps at a Fibonacci or psychological number level and reverse lower.  Then leave a 3 point which could ideally (again) be at a Fibonacci or psychological number.  I like when the 3 point either make a 50% retracement or better yet a double bottom without going lower than the 1 point.  Add to that I prefer to see this set up take no less than ten trading days and no longer than 20 trading days to develop and trigger.
See even when playing "make believe" I specific about what I want!

Crude is an easier story to tell because it’s not really a top picking set ups at all.  Even though I was long the CL contract and still am long via call options and the USO, I have been very upfront about the 150 resistance and the psychological significance of it.  I have also discussed that current price action and the frequency of pullbacks to the Wave are the first steps into the distribution market cycle.  I think the likely scenario here is a two to four o’clock Wave.  For anyone looking for a Wave reversal short here, I don’t like the set up.  This is not the kind of rally that simply reverses in a "V" pattern.  It’s going to take some time to shake the buyers off the uptrend and that’s exactly what the distribution cycle does.
I should mention that when playing scenarios, be sure to have a scenario for both sides of the market.  Also, feel free to have multiple scenarios.  This way you are more likely to recognize and be prepared for the trades as it develops…in essence you have seen it already!

The AUD/USD had a really sweet Fibo on the daily.  And if you’re going to pick a top or bottom in any market, it’s best to do it off the daily.  I could have also done a mock up of a Dow Theory reversal but in the interest of simply diversifying the top picking approaches here I’m going with Fibonacci, extensions in this example.
The 1.618 was hit really solidly and left behind a good size wick.  The level is also further reinforced by the "50" pip level.  The AUD/USD and the U.S. Dollar Index have an inverse correlation but remember that the aussie is a "split personality" as it’s a comm-doll too.  That means factoring in the trend in gold.  Gold is still in an uptrend and trading above the Wave.  It’s also below 1000 and that’s going to be an important resistance level (again).  Last time we broke 1000, it was a short lived move and reversed and started the distribution cycle were in now.  Since the mid-March run through 1000 and the subsequent pullback, I’d say that there was a one month span where gold was in a downtrend (four to six o’clock Wave) from mid-April to mid-May.  Other than that, the Wave’s been two to four…distribution.
So there you have it.  but remember just because you can set the trade up doesn’t mean you should take it.
And by the way, the most realistic set up to me is the AUD/USD short…love that Fibo ceiling.
- Raghee

Talking about the market volitility as crude oil drops 10 dollars.
Posted on July 16, 2008 at 13:32 in Price actions by Raghee HornerNo Comments »

This is the playback of this week’s live webinar presentation that was
initially focused on hourly and daily volatility numbers and historical
tendencies that transitioned into a discussion of the crude oil drop,
dollar & Dow rally.



Chart Pattern Trading webinar playback
Posted on July 15, 2008 at 13:51 in Uncategorized by Raghee HornerNo Comments »

We had some technical difficulties with last week’s webinar so here’s the playback.  By the way, all of the webinar presentations are posted here at the Chartology blog so you can catch up and review at your leisure.  Don’t forget that you can catch the LIVE presentation each Tuesday at 11:00am EST right here at FXStreet.  Enjoy!


- Raghee



Trading Lessons from Mom…
Posted on July 11, 2008 at 1:22 in Price actions by Raghee HornerNo Comments »

(This is pertinent to any market trader!)
My mom had just come back from Miami where she likes to shop for beads.
She makes beaded jewelry, much of which I wear and give as gifts, and
she handed me a small green jade blob.
Now realize the charts looked like it had fallen off the wrong side of the mountain and was down almost 200 points that session.
My mom always get phone calls from friends and family asking “What is
Raghee doing with this down market?” Her reply is the usually “she’s
short” or “she’s buying stocks that are on sale”. My mom has been
listening to me talk about the markets since I was 17 and a lot of it
has stuck with her. Every now and then I will look at my investments
and hey I’m human, it can bring you down. Luckily I snap out of it
pretty quickly and get to work, finding opportunities. For cryin’ out
loud: That’s my JOB!
I think she may have noticed that my “snapping out of it” was taking
a little longer and being a mom, did what she does best: Tell me
exactly what I need to hear.
“Even bears eat”.
She puts this small green blob of jade on my desk. I hadn’t quite
realized what it was or really what the heck she was talking about.
Apparently my expression said much and she repeated, “Even bears eat”.
And she walked out of the room. I’m shaking my head and finally the
small green jade blog came into focus.

Yup, once again, mom was right.
Are you looking for opportunity as the Dow sinks?  Are you looking at the stocks, you “wish list stocks” that you want to own?
The financial sector is like an out-going tide right now bringing
everything lower but there are companies that are worth buying and they
are on sale.
- Raghee




A walk through a recent set up in the Aussie
Posted on July 10, 2008 at 22:56 in Price actions by Raghee HornerNo Comments »

I’m not sharing this because it was a winning trade, actually the trade got stopped out.  I am sharing it because yesterday morning I did a complete build out of the entry, stop, profit targets, Fibos - I think it shows the thinking behind a *typical* trade.  Enjoy!


Forex and Futures Go Hand-in-Hand
Posted on July 2, 2008 at 16:15 in Price actions by Raghee HornerNo Comments »


I have been a futures trader for almost two decades and adding forex to that experience has been invaluable…and I hope that by shedding light on the futures market it will help increase the accuracy of your forex trading as well as see the opportunities that you can capitalize on in the futures market!
- Raghee


Step by Step Chart Pattern Entries, Stop Loss & Profit Target Placement
Posted on June 17, 2008 at 23:43 in Uncategorized by Raghee HornerNo Comments »


Test drive the Autochartist Suite (Autochartist DIRECT, PowerStats ADVANCED, and Stop Loss/Take Profit Adviser) for 21 days!


Do you trust this move higher in the dollar?
Posted on June 13, 2008 at 18:06 in Uncategorized by Raghee HornerNo Comments »

The rally the dollar is enjoying has stepped up the talk of near term rate hikes from the FOMC.  The more the dollar rallies, the more it seems that traders are intent on strong-arming the Fed into a sooner — rather than later — rate hike to support the battered dollar.
There are some important levels that need to see buyers step in so that the rally can set a foundation.  74.00 will be the key level to watch.  
Here’s the chart.

- Raghee


“Price Movement Range” in the EUR/USD
Posted on June 11, 2008 at 16:30 in Uncategorized by Raghee HornerNo Comments »

Experienced traders understand volatility from hours spent in front
of their charts and trading platform.  There’s usually statistical
relevance that can back up anecdotal evidence.
Experienced traders will tell you that active trading hours are
typically between 8:00 and 10:00am EST.  Looking at the chart below of
the EUR/USD you can clearly see when the widest ranging activity
occurs.  This is not applicable to the EUR/USD only, a similar study of
the USD/CHF, USD/JPY, GBP/USD reveals the same active trading hours.
The reason?  The U.S. Dollar.

Over the next few posts we’ll take a look at some of the stats as they apply to trading times, days, and specific pairs.
courtesy of Autochartist PowerStats


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hefeiddd

Posted on June 9, 2008 at 19:56 in Price actions by Raghee HornerNo Comments »
The U.S. Dollar Index is the most important confirmation chart I use…and I use it to gauge what the EUR/USD, USD/CHF, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY are most likely to do.  Don’t forget that "comm dolls" like the USD/CAD, AUD/USD, and NZD/USD have correlation to the Dollar as well…even though we look at these as split personality pairs because of they are "commodity currencies".
Even though the U.S. Dollar is a future contract there is too much correlation between the major pairs and the Dollar Index to ignore this key chart. Plus I really feel that ALL forex pairs are, to a degree, "commodity currencies" when you understand the correlation between the pairs and the Dollar and the Dollar and market like crude oil and gold.
So with that in mind, the Dollar is bouncing around in a range between73.80 to the upside and 71.80 to the downside.  These are both minor psychological levels.

If this chart continues to bounce in the range, then daily charts are not going to find a lot of room to run on breakouts.  I’m watching this range closely.  For intraday chart traders (I watch the 15, 30, 60, 180, 240) the range should not present too much of an issue.
- Raghee

The ECB helps confirm the ceiling on the Dollar Index
Posted on June 5, 2008 at 17:03 in Price actions by Raghee HornerNo Comments »


For now, the ECB’s decision to leave rates at 4.00% helped the EUR/USD stay above 1.5500 and begin a potential double top in the Dollar Index.
Never assume a breakout in any market…and always know the context of the trend…many traders were putting too much emphasis on the "dollar’s recovery" without looking the major ceiling(s) still overhead.


Today’s Chart Pattern Trading webinar replay
Posted on June 3, 2008 at 22:16 in Chart patterns by Raghee HornerNo Comments »




Bernanke kicks the Dollar…up!
Posted on June 3, 2008 at 20:00 in Chart patterns by Raghee HornerNo Comments »


The dollar is finally enjoying some time trading higher…but what makes it so interesting is that for once it’s Bernanke who’s helping it higher.
Bernanke hinted at a second half of the year recovery and mentioned that the weakened dollar has increased the price of imports.  Now ofcourse I am using my own words, but that’s the meat of what he said.  This in effect is the first of three steps to a dollar recovery…first is taking future rate cuts off the table.  Stock bulls don’t like the sound of that as most stock traders think the whole world revolves around nothing but equities…well all that complaining and whining for lower interest rates has helped crude oil higher…hmm, do people not understand "cause and effect"?  Apparently not.  Ofcourse speculation and demand has helped crude higher as well (less of the former and more of the latter).
The Dow has been reversing the pre-market rally and down triple digits now…the sell-off has suspiciously accelerated on the lunch time doldrums and that alone will lead me to look at the close and see if this sell-off doesn’t recover some after the bonds close.
I think what no one is mentioning is the fact that the rate cuts are off the table for now and the stock market is selling off for the same reasons the dollar is buoyed up above 73.00.  Maybe a simplistic view but certainly part of what is being baked into the cake.  
I’ll be watching the 73.20 and 73.00 levels for a "base and bounce" if the Bernanke dollar rally is for real…
- Raghee


Market Pulse for the week of June 2nd
Posted on June 2, 2008 at 23:11 in Price actions by Raghee HornerNo Comments »



Step by Step Trade Entry…it’s just three steps!
Posted on May 27, 2008 at 19:11 in Uncategorized by Raghee HornerNo Comments »

Is it really this "easy"?  Well, the concept is, but like most things, knowing is usually easier than DOING.
Step One.  Identify the market cycle.  Use the the Wave.  Whether you know it or not, every entry strategy ever devised was designed for a certain market environment.  Somehow that fact has been lost and certainly the allure of that one magical set up is tempting for many traders.  It just doesn’t work that way.  Market go up, down, and sideways.  You need a way to enter all, and that means at minimum three entry strategies.
Step Two.  Once you know the direction of the market, now you know which entry style to use.  Simple?  Well only if you know which of your strategies are breakout/down or trend following.  Some of you might even have a range-bound entry strategy.  Have all three?  You’re set.
Step Three.  Confirm your entry with some sort of filtering indicator.  Indicators should not be used to make entry decisions, but they are terrific filters.  I use the MACD Histogram for momentum entries, CCI for reversal entries, and the Wave of trend following.  Occasionally I will use a slow stochastic for range bound entries.
Now there is ofcourse the detail that you must work into these broad strokes…but some trades don’t even do the *obvious* I’ve listed above.  Understanding order entry will give you an edge in getting your price.  Using chart patterns will offer more and better trade opportunities.  Fibonacci levels and pivot will assist you in finding support and resistance levels and trade management.  This is where you trading style can be more personal and designed for your own approach to the markets.  
Each Tuesday we talk about these steps in detail.  Join me here at FX Street for the chart pattern trading webinar each Tuesday and you can see it at work in the LIVE market.
You can also join me tomorrow for the Forex for Newbies webinar at raghee.com.
- Raghee


A busy week of presentations: lesson, set ups and more!
Posted on May 26, 2008 at 20:11 in Uncategorized by Raghee HornerNo Comments »

Hello Everyone, I am enjoying some time away form the office in Dallas this week but we have PLENTY of webinars this week.
Ofcourse, I hope to see you all tomorrow for the Chart Pattern Trading webinar.
We’ll be taking about chart pattern set ups and more…
Also this week is the Forex for Newbies webinar at raghee.com - it will be a step by step presentation about forex for anyone who is just learning about trading foreign exchange.
Last, but certainly not least, feel free to visit my personal blog at http://www.ragheehorner.com
For anyone who hasn’t tried the Autochartist chart pattern recognition, scanning, and alert software - what are you waiting for?  You get a 21-day trial and the INTRO video series…free.
- Raghee


Is your strategy designed for a trending or non-trending market?
Posted on May 21, 2008 at 0:19 in Uncategorized by Raghee HornerNo Comments »

It’s a simple question that most people don’t know the answer to…mainly because no one talks about it or because no one has an answer to the question.
Each and every strategy you’ve ever seen, learned, or used was designed with a particular market direction in mind - whether you what it is or not.  Maybe it’s a breakout strategy.  Maybe it’s a trend following strategy.  Maybe it’s trend reversal strategy.  Maybe it takes advantage of range-bound markets.
Whatever it is, you must know when to apply the strategy.
Now somewhere along the way this idea has been discarded.  I think partly because some people are fooled into thinking that their strategy works in all market environments (wrong!) or they don’t have a reliable tool to determine a trending versus non-trending market.  (it’s not as easy as you think to do in real time)
This video talks about this topic…in fact all the Chartology chart pattern trading videos discuss this as a confirmation step.  It doesn’t matter if you trade chart patterns or not, learning how to identify the market direction should be one of the initial steps in any trading approach.


Today’s Chart Pattern Trading webinar


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