一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-4-7 19:31

Sunil.
Harmonics and support zones
Posted on October 15, 2008 at 6:14 in Uncategorized by Sunil MangwaniNo Comments »

Let’s have a look at a long term harmonic pattern forming on the monthly chart of the GBP/CAD.
This seems to be an interesting situation, since the harmonic pattern seems to have completed the 5 waves…at a confluence of other support levels.

As we can see in this chart, a bullish Gartley pattern has been completed, with pretty accurate fib levels.
Hence one would expect price to rally from this reversal level “D”
If we look at some more factors for confirmation, we can see that we also have a bullish divergence, and a support level which has formed at a fib projection of 127.2.

Hence this level becomes an important support zone and one would expect it to hold the price.
Even after such strong indications, we must still wait for price to give us a confirmation, before we take long trades.

Entry - For a harmonic pattern, an ideal entry is on the break of the “B” level, since this is an important barrier of resistance/support.
So, we would be taking trades, only if price closes above this level.
Stop - Ideally to be placed below the low of “D”
Targets - The minimum price objective for a harmonic pattern is usually the measured move of the wave “B-C” of the harmonic pattern.
If we plot this distance on the low of “D” we have an initial target zone, which also coincides with the 61.8 fib level of the move “C-D”.
If price surpasses this target, then further targets would be the 127.2 / 161.8 fib projection of this wave “C-D”
Again, we follow the “If-Then” principle, and look for long trades only if price satisfies our entry conditions.
And most important, we follow the trade with proper money management.
The advantage of using the fib ratios / harmonic patterns is that one can pre-define the anticipated target levels.
Hence one can manage the trade, by taking profits at the fib levels, and still participate in the trade if price moves further.
Sunil.

Sneak preview of the Live Technical Analysis workshop in Barcelona, Spain
Posted on October 13, 2008 at 6:17 in Uncategorized by Sunil MangwaniNo Comments »

Hello everyone,
This is with reference to the Live Technical Analysis Workshop, that I will be conducting in Barcelona just after the ITC.

Venue: The University of Barcelona
Date: Saturday November 1st 2008
Time: 08:30 AM to 04:30 PM
Cost: EURO 200.00 (including food and workshop material)

You can get the complete details here: http://www.fibforex123.com/Barcelona_workshop.htm
{For traders attending the FXstreet.com International Traders Conference (Barcelona October 29 to 31) there is a discount and the cost is 150

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-4-7 19:32

Posted on August 30, 2008 at 16:05 in Uncategorized by Sunil Mangwani2 Comments »
Let’s have a look at an interesting situation on the Usd/Jpy.
There are 4 patterns forming within each other along with similar measured moves across different time frames.
Now these patterns were all identified by one of our trader member “Carlos” who has developed a knack of identifying the harmonic patterns across different time frames. This makes our Live Trading Room very interesting as we get to discuss & trade harmonic price patterns across different time frames.
Situation.1 - A bearish butterfly in the process on the 4hr chart

As we can see in the chart, the first 3 legs of this harmonic pattern seem to have formed and we would expect price to rally to complete the last wave C-D. This would complete the harmonic pattern.
Let’s keep 2 points in reference on this chart.
One is the expected rally to the point ‘D’ which should be at 111.30 (appr.)
Second, notice the 2 parallel lines plotted within the wave B-C.
These lines form a classical AB=CD pattern, which normally occurs within a harmonic pattern.
Keeping this in mind, lets go down to a smaller time frame and have a look at this measured move AB=CD.
Situation.2 - A bullish Gartley completed on the 1hr chart

As we can see in this chart, this did form a bullish Gartley. Even though the fib ratios are not very accurate, it satisfies the basic parameters of a harmonic pattern, and more importantly the measured move AB=CD.
Now this pattern seems to have completed and we can expect price to fulfill the target objectives, which is the 127.2 / 161.8 fib projection of A-D.

Referring back to the 4hr chart, we can see that this expected price rally is the last leg ‘C-D’ of the bearish butterfly of situation.1
And the expected fib ratio of this ‘C-D’ wave is the 161.8 of the ‘B-C’ wave. (of situation.1)
So we can conclude, that if price confirms the objectives of situation.2 (the bullish Gartley) it would probably go the 161.8 fib projection.
And again on this 1hr chart, notice the 2 parallel lines within the wave ‘C-D’.
And we know that this classical AB=CD pattern normally occurs within a harmonic pattern.
So there exists the possibility of another harmonic pattern on a smaller time frame.
Situation.3 - A bullish butterfly also completed on the 1hr chart

Looking closely at this smaller AB=CD pattern, we could identify a bullish butterfly within the larger bullish Gartley.
Now in this case, the AB=CD does not apply precisely, but it gave us the base to look for another harmonic pattern.
Price seems to have found support on the ‘D’ level of this pattern and we can expect a rally to the upside from here.
Now we have 3 patterns indicating that price could rally to the upside and we need to look for a proper entry into the long trade.
As always, we do not assume anything and simply follow the “If-Then” principle.
We thus decided to go down to a smaller time frame to look for some confirmations.
Situation.4 - A bullish Gartley completed on the 15min chart
Going down to the 15min time frame, we could identify a bullish Gartley pattern which formed at the support zone.

So now we have 4 patterns indicating that price could rally to the upside.
There are 2 reasons that this post is worth looking at.
One is to observe the fractal nature of price when we have patterns within patterns. This is a very common occurrence in price movements and one only needs to concentrate more on the price action…rather than indicators.
Second is expected plan of action for such situations.
As we mentioned, we have 4 patterns indicating that price could rally to the upside.
But one should not jump into a trade and a trading plan has to be in place.
Applying the “If-Then” principle, we start from the smallest pattern and identify possible target levels. If price breaks these target levels, then we move to the next larger pattern and expect price to achieve those target levels.
Bottom line - A trade can be made successful by managing it properly and using the correct money management and risk management principles.
Sunil.

Harmonics on Gold
Posted on August 14, 2008 at 14:46 in Uncategorized by Sunil Mangwani6 Comments »

This is with reference to an earlier comment on the current situation on Gold.
If we are looking at the weekly chart, is this a bullish Gartley pattern?

While it does respect the fib levels within the legs of the pattern, there are a couple of points which are worth looking into.
Firstly any fib level and subsequently a harmonic pattern is more effective if plotted on a swing high / low which has acted a pivot.
In this case, the starting point of the pattern ‘X’ is a swing low which is a pullback within the existing uptrend. Hence this dilutes the effect of the fib levels.
Secondly, as we can notice the first retracement ‘B’ does not form exactly at the 61.8 level. In a Gartley, this point is often an exact retracement.
Hence we can scale down the effectiveness of this pattern to a lower level.
Now it does not in any way negate the pattern, since price will always respect the fib levels.
But in the favor of the pattern, the reversal point ‘D’ has formed at a confluence of 2 fib levels, as described in the chart image.
So, let’s look at this situation from a different perspective.

Looking at this daily chart, we can observe that there was a bearish Gartley pattern which had formed. The structure of this pattern was quite precise as described in the chart image, and one would expect the pattern to fulfill the price objective….which it did.

One can see that the price objective of this bearish Gartley was achieved quite accurately.
Hence one would expect this price target to turn into a support zone.
Coming back to our bullish Gartley pattern, now we can balance the different views we have on the situation and conclude that –
The point ‘D’ seems to be a support zone which could turn into a reversal area.
Let us plot the initial price objective of this bullish pattern, which should be the initial move…if price rallies up.
In any harmonic pattern, the minimum price objective is the confluence of 2 levels –
(a) Calculate the distance of the wave ‘B-C’ and plot it on the low of ‘D’.
(b) The 61.8 – 78.6 Fib retracement of the wave ‘C-D’
We can this set a target zone in this area.
In this case, this target zone is also capped by a trend line which we can plot on the highs of ‘A-C’.

This becomes a target zone and we can expect price to reach there, if the momentum turns bullish.
A safe entry into this long trade would be on the break of the Fib retracement 23.6 (of wave C-D), which is also a major support zone.
Lastly, at the risk of repeating the same point again & again, we never assume anything and do not jump into any trade.
We follow the “If-Then” principle and let price guide us into the trades.
Sunil.

Bearish Butterfly on the Aud/Nzd
Posted on August 12, 2008 at 8:21 in Uncategorized by Sunil Mangwani3 Comments »

Let’s have a look at another long term harmonic pattern - a Bearish Butterfly on the weekly time frame of the Aud/Nzd.

If we look at this chart, the pattern seems to have completed and is poised to take price down to the anticipated target zone of the pattern.
The fib ratios have been met quite precisely and hence there is a strong probability of the anticipated move being fulfilled.
Now even though the pattern looks nice, one should not jump into a short trade.
Any trade has to be planned, and the correct entry, stop and exit levels need to be precisely determined….before you enter a trade.
There are never any guarantees that price will fulfill the required objectives and it is only the correct money management approach which will increase the account equity.
Hence we must take into account mid level support zones and ride the trade by taking profits at these mid-support zones.
Let us identify some support zones, which will become our ‘Take-Profit’ levels, if price moves as per our expectations.

In any harmonic pattern, the initial objective should be determined by a confluence of 2 factors.
(a) We use the "Measured Move" concept, and calculate the distance of wave ‘B-C’. This distance deducted from the high of ‘D’ should give the initial support zone.
(b) The fib retracement levels of the wave ‘C-D’ also offer the initial support zones.
We can notice a confluence of these 2 factors at the Fib retracement 50.0 (of C-D) and designate that as our initial price target.
If price manages to break this level, then we can expect further price objectives at the 127.2 / 161.8 fib projection of the wave ‘A-D’.
Now that we have our exits in place, we should similarly plan the entry and the stop levels.
One could drop down to a smaller time frame to look for a “technical trigger” for a short trade. There seems to be pullbacks forming and one may not get an entry immediately, but at least one is prepared for the trade.
Sunil

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-4-7 19:33

Sunil
Harmonics and fundamentals
Posted on August 11, 2008 at 20:51 in Uncategorized by Sunil MangwaniNo Comments »

With the USD gaining strength and Oil retreating from its highs, could we be looking at a change in trend?
Too early to call for a reversal, but a strong pullback certainly on the cards.
Comparing the different financial instruments, we know that Oil and the Canadian Dollar have a strong correlation.
So if the USD is rallying against the majors and oil is pulling back from its highs, the one currency pair which should have a double effect is the Usd/Cad.
As expected, this currency pair broke all short term resistance levels with unprecedented momentum.
Now the question is where will it stop?
As usual we try and use fib targets, or harmonic targets to get a target zone.
In this chart we have identified a bullish Gartley pattern.

Now this pattern was not traded, but identified only after looking back for some target zones.
(Its always easy to look back at a static chart and identify patterns…right??)
But keeping in line with our topic, I want to point out the basics behind the harmonic pattern. That price does move in a particular pattern, and one only needs to be aware of this fact to gain an edge.
Which can be seen by the fact that price formed another harmonic pattern on its way to achieving the target of the first one.

Now one can also plot the fibs on the second harmonic pattern, but my point here is that it is the very nature of price to form such patterns.
In any case, price has crossed the expected target of the initial Gartley (the 161.8 fib of A-D) and looks poised to go further.
So we can expect some more bullish moves on this one, before we can identify another harmonic pattern.
Sunil.

A confusing harmonic situation.
Posted on August 6, 2008 at 12:07 in Uncategorized by Sunil MangwaniNo Comments »

Hi Folks,
First of all, let me apologize for not updating the blog in the last week, since I was away.
We may have missed some harmonic patterns in the process, but lets get on.
I wanted to discuss a harmonic pattern in the process on the 4hr Eur/Gbp, which is in response to a query from one of the traders.
If we look at this chart, we could be looking at the completion of a bearish Gartley pattern. The fib retracements have been met quite accurately (as shown on the chart) and one would expect price to move towards the downside.

The second chart shows the expected price objectives that are expected.
The initial price target would be the 61.8 fib retracement of the C-D wave & if price breaks this level, then we can further expect a move to the 127.2 / 161.8 fib projection of the wave A-D.

So far so good.
But if we have a look at this chart, then we can identify a possible bearish Bat pattern in the process….in the same price movement.

Now which pattern would be the right one?
And one needs to identify it correctly since the expected price movements would be in opposite directions.
If the smaller Gartley is valid, then we expect price to resume the downtrend with immediate effect.
If the larger Bat is valid, then we expect price to move to the upside to complete the last wave C-D of this pattern.
Let’s take some points into consideration.
First and foremost, the fib ratios plotted on the larger pattern would be more effective, since they are plotted on the pivot swing high & pivot swing low.
This simply means that the fibs in chart.3 are plotted on bars from where price has turned around.
In comparison, the fibs plotted on chart.1 are not on pivot bars.
The X on chart.1 (the bearish Gartley) is a pullback in the entire down wave & not a separate wave.
Plus the D of the smaller Gartley (chart.1) did not confirm accurately to the parameters of the Harmonic – D did not form at the fib projection 127.2 of wave C-D.
Hence one would give more weight age to the larger pattern.
Now this does not mean that we immediately go long & look to trade the last up leg of the Bat,
We simply follow the “If-Then” procedure.
We know that price does respect fib levels, so looking at the expected targets of the smaller Gartley we could expect a down move to the 61.8 of C-D.
If price breaks that, then we think short.
For expected longs, we can simply plot a trend line along the highs of X-D and we think long if price breaks this trend line.
Till the time price is within these levels, we are in a No-trade Zone, as we can see in this chart.

We wait for price to tell us where its going & till then we look at some other currencies….or go for a swim or a round of golf -J
Sunil.

Recap and follow up
Posted on July 29, 2008 at 7:49 in Uncategorized by Sunil Mangwani2 Comments »

Hi Folks,
Lets have a quick recap of the previous harmonic patterns that we have been following, and see how things are moving along.
(1.) Previous post of "A long trem harmonic pattern" regarding the Usd/Chf.
If you look at the daily chart in that post, we were expecting a rally from point B up. We also had a bullish divergence at that point for further confirmations.
I am enclosing the previous chart as well as the chart of the current situation, for quick reference.
Previous chart -

Current chart -

This chart shows that price did indeed rally up. We are looking at some retracements now and its time to take some profits. The bullish divergence targets have not yet been achieved, but we don’t want to take a chance.
We did catch some good moves and lets be happy with that.
(2.) Previous post of "Following up with a long term Harmonic pattern"
We were following the Usd/Jpy which was in a very similar situation as the Usd/Chf. The only difference was that we were looking at some possible bearish moves…which got negated since price did not find resistance at the fib level.
The following chart explains it -

So, as they say…be prepared, but wait for price to confirm and then take a trade…..never assume.
Following up with the Usd/Jpy -
Previous chart -

We were expecting an up move for the targets of this bullish Gartley to be achieved.
Present situation -

Price did rally up only to find resistance at a trend line & again, we dont assume anything. Time to take some profits.
(3.) Previous post of "A Gartley on the Looney"
This was an excellent trade and an ideal situation where price follows the harmonic patterns. We were looking at a harmonic pattern on the daily time frame on the Usd/Cad, and looking to trade the individual waves of the pattern.
The first one went off quite well -
Previous chart -

Current situation -

Trading within the pattern, we caught an excellent move of 175 points.
At present, we closed the trade since we are now expecting a down leg towards the point ‘D’ of this pattern.
Will price respect the pattern and give us the expected move?
Again, we dont assume. We set our levels and follow the "If-Then" situation.
If price breaks a certain level, then we think about shorts…..or we dont trade.
(3.) Previous post of "A Gartley or a Bat…or nothing?"
We were looking at a bullish Bat pattern on the 4hr Eur/Usd. This was a pattern to be taken with strong confirmations, since price has been in a strong downtrend and going against the main trend is like standing in front of an incoming train.
This trade was not taken, but I am mentioning it here for academic purposes…to prove that price does indeed respect the fibs.
Previous situation -

Current situation - Price did indeed find support and though we are not thinking long, we are looking at some more up moves to fulfill the targets

Sunil.

Not harmonics, but a Head & Shoulders & yet fibs
Posted on July 24, 2008 at 15:10 in Uncategorized by Sunil Mangwani1 Comment »

Hi,
We leave harmonics aside for the time being & have a look at a possible bearish Head & shoulder pattern on the Nzd/Usd weekly chart.

The chart shows the pattern which is quite symmetrical and price has broken the neckline.
So do we expect the downtrend to go to the expected targets?
Well, as always, price can do funny things, and especially when you are very sure of something.
So lets take things step by step.
If we drill down to the daily time frame, we can identify a harmonic pattern at the neckline.

Now I said "a harmonic pattern" and not "the harmonic pattern", because these fib ratios do not fit into any of the regular patterns that we use  - the Gartley, the Bat & the Butterfly.
This is an ABC correction, which follows the principles of the harmonic patterns.
But the first corrective wave to the 38.2 level & the second corrective wave to the 61.8 level,  is not part of any of the above mentioned patterns….which just goes to show that the harmonic  patterns are very specific in  structure & hence very accurate.
Now should we name this particular pattern as the "Sunil pattern" ??? he.he.he. !!!
Anyway coming down to business, price reactions around fib levels are quite accurate & this pattern did push price to break the neckline of the larger H & S pattern.
Hence we can expect price to continue to the harmonic price targets - the 127/161 fib projection of c-d.
This should push price well into the territory of the H&S target zone, which could set the tone for further down moves.
So, another long term pattern to follow.
Such large moves with the correct money management parameters,  should more than take care of the smaller losses that  one would have incurred.
Sunil.

A Gartley or a Bat….or nothing??
Posted on July 24, 2008 at 10:12 in Uncategorized by Sunil Mangwani1 Comment »

Hi folks,
This is with reference to a potential setup on the 4hr chart of the Eur/Usd, which was also commented upon in the previous post.
We are looking at a potential rally to the upside on the Eur/Usd….but right now the downtrend seems to be pretty strong.
Even if one has a potential setup which looks perfect, one must have a look at the overall situation & decide on the trade by taking that into consideration.
Hence we anlayse the situation and follow the "If-Then" procedure.
Which simply means that keep yourself prepared for potential moves (in either direction) and do not enter till price gives the confirmation.
Lets start by looking at the potential bullish harmonic pattern.

Looking at this chart, it seems to be a close call between a "Gartley" and a "Bat".
A Gartley has the retracement of ‘B’ at 61.8 (of XA) and the Bat has the retracement of ‘B’ at 50 or 38.2 (of XA)
Now in this situation at ‘B’, we do not have a close below the 50 level, so we can assume a Bat.
Especially since the ‘D’ level has gone beyond the 78.6 retracement (of XA)
Frankly, this is the point which indicates the underlying momentum is still strong to the downside, and if and only if, price finds support at the 88.6 level, we think about long trades.
If price slices through the 88.6 support level, then we re-analyse our charts.
As I said, lets get prepared for the trade - the "If-then" procedure.
If we do get support at the 88.6 level, then our trade conditions should be based on the fibs as shown in this chart.

I would consider a safe entry on the break of the Fib 23.6 level, as that will indicate the bullish momentum.
The risk-to-reward ratio works out extremely well, as in all the harmonic patterns.
Sunil.

A Gartley on the “Looney” ?
Posted on July 21, 2008 at 20:36 in Uncategorized by Sunil Mangwani1 Comment »

A possible harmonic pattern on the Usd/Cad.
Now this is one currency pair which is a two faced devil. It will meander along steadily & suddenly turn around and bite you.
I compare it to a roller coaster ride. If you are on the right side of it, then enjoy the ride. But if you are in the wrong side…then God help you -:))
Getting a good technical setup on the looney is like hitting a jackpot -:)
We could be looking at a bullish Gartley on the daily time frame & I want to make one point here. Due to its volatile nature, its best to look for setups on the Looney on higher time frames.
I have enclosed the chart of the possible bullish Gartley and there are still lots of "Ifs & Buts" to this setup.

Again, my reason for looking for a possible harmonic pattern is the precise retracement to the 61.8 fib level…which sets the tone for further moves.
Its something worth keeping an eye on.
Sunil M

Following up with “A long term harmonic pattern”
Posted on July 21, 2008 at 20:17 in Uncategorized by Sunil Mangwani2 Comments »

Hi folks,
As discussed last week, we are following on the expected harmonic pattern on the Usd/Chf.
Referring to the daily chart of the last post, we had a bullish divergence & are expecting price to rally into the point ‘C’ of the harmonic pattern.
Now since we are looking at the daily time frame, it will take some daily bars to give us a confirmation of the move, but we could be looking at some consolidation / pause / pullback before the expected uptrend.
There could be a bearish harmonic pattern developing on a smaller time frame, but we will comment on that once we have some confirmations.
As of now, we still have a bullish bias.
Since we are on the follow up, lets follow up on the earlier pattern of the Usd/Jpy on the daily time frame (earlier post of ‘Catching the Butterfly & playing with the Gartley’)

If you compare the chart from that post to this chart, we can see that price reached the expected fib targets precisely…AND bounced from there for the expected longs.
Hence we are still looking for some long targets to be fulfilled.
But let me spoil the party -:)
If price stopped dead at the expected fib levels earlier, then we can safely conclude that we expect price to react at those levels.
As of beginning of this week, we can see that price stopped dead at a 78.6 level….and a trend line resistance.
Can we expect a rejection & hence a bearish move??
The resistance at a 78.6 points to a butterfly pattern, so should we look at a bearish butterfly?

Well, lets wait for price to tell us where it wants to go, but it should turn out to be an interesting exercise.
Sunil Mangwani

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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-7 19:46 编辑 ]

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-4-7 19:33

Posted on July 18, 2008 at 9:45 in Uncategorized by Sunil Mangwani5 Comments »
In an earlier post (The harmonics with a Head & Shoulders pattern) we had discussions about analyzing the “pro-active” harmonic patterns. I had replied to the comments & want to add some more points to it.
My comments about not being ‘predictive’ may be misconstrued as not applying the technical knowledge to actual trading.
Finally we are traders & we are here to trade. All our efforts, our learning, our understanding of the technicals have but one purpose.
To use that knowledge to achieve success in trading.
But the unfortunate fact remains that most traders lose money in trading.
The simple fact is that implementing technical analysis alone is not enough to be successful. One has to apply all the 3M’s – Money, Mind & Method - to achieve success.
The Money & Mind part is controlled by the individual trader alone, and nobody else. He/She is solely responsible for these 2 factors, which are more important than the Method.
So, even if you have the best ‘Method’, you will not succeed unless your ‘Money’ & ‘Mind’ are not applied correctly. Period.
There is no ambiguity in this and there are no two ways about it.
The reason why I am mentioning this point is because of this particular pattern that we are looking at. We are analyzing a harmonic pattern on a weekly time frame and I want to demonstrate an effective way of “proactive” analysis.
We are looking at a possible Bullish Gartley forming on the weekly Usd/Chf. Now the first point is that if this pattern does complete, then we are looking at some strong reversals here. A harmonic pattern occurring at the end of a long trend becomes a very powerful reversal setup & we could be looking at some strong rallies in this pair.
But, let us take things one step at a time.

Looking at the chart, we can see that the point “B” seems to have formed since price has found support at precisely the 61.8 retracement.
Now we are being extra “proactive” and hoping for the next 2 legs of the pattern to form. Hence we are looking for a rally, then a down move AND THEN a change of trend with a stronger rally to the upside.
The chart shows the expected levels, which if formed, could see the completion of the pattern.
If these expected levels are not formed…then we don’t have a trade.
Now, why am I thinking of a harmonic pattern?
Is one retracement at a fib level enough to think about a harmonic pattern?
Since we know that price respects fib levels, this could just one of the many levels that price has found support on.
So it could turn into a harmonic pattern or it could not.
But we have 2 factors supporting this view.
One, the current weekly bar seems to be forming a reversal candlestick pattern. If we do get a weekly reversal bar (at the close of this current week), then we are looking at a rally in the coming week.
Secondly, if we shift to the daily time frame, we can observe a bullish divergence…at the harmonic point of “B”.

And the expected target of this divergence coincides with the expected “C’ of the harmonic.
Hence we could be looking at a possible Gartley in the process.
Now we come back to our topic of “forexology” and the approach to pro-active analysis.
We are not sure that the expected pattern will play out & price could suddenly reverse to the downside, throwing all our detailed analysis in the wind.
Hence one must take an “If-Then” approach.
If price breaks this level, Then we do this….or price breaks that level, Then we do that.
And in between, while waiting for a confirmation, we are in a “No-Trade Zone”
In this way, we are not trying to predict the price movement & yet are prepared with our plans once price decides to move.
I would like to take this example for demonstrating this approach & would like to follow the price & take decisions on every change of trend.
Step.1 – We wait for the break of the trend line on the daily frame. That should give us the indication, that price has a high probability of reaching the level “C” of the harmonic.
If it does not then we re-analyze the charts and look for other setups.
We will be following this & will keep updating the price movements.
Sunil Mangwani

Finally a “Crab” pattern
Posted on July 16, 2008 at 15:21 in Uncategorized by Sunil Mangwani2 Comments »

Hi,
We finally found a “Crab” harmonic pattern and I am attaching the chart image with the specific parameters.

There are couples of points here, which are worth mentioning along with the analysis of the pattern.
One, this pattern has formed on a smaller time frame of 15mins, which goes to show that the harmonic patterns are valid & effective across all time frames.
Secondly, with reference to a previous comment - “should one use additional tools like the stochastic/MACD for additional confirmation” – I would say that the answer lies within the question -J
“Additional confirmation”.
As long as you use the indicators as a secondary confirmation & not as a leading factor, then yes, they certainly help in confirming the price movements.
Like the example we have here – the reversal point “D” of the Crab pattern also had a bullish divergence, which is the additional confirmation.
But again, one must remember that price is the leading indicator & we have seen the effectiveness of price reacting at the fib levels.
As far as this setup goes, price bounced exactly at the 88.6 level & it seems to be rallying towards the expected targets.
I don’t like to be predictive and judge the extent of the price movement. But harmonic patterns are very effective & even though one can expect price to fulfill the expected targets, one should go in a trade with a proper trade plan.
Remember, now you have an edge & you must take advantage of that.
Sunil Mangwani.

The harmonics with a Head & Shoulder pattern
Posted on July 14, 2008 at 16:44 in Uncategorized by Sunil Mangwani6 Comments »

Hi,
There are times when we get a second confirmation of an expected price movement.
We have an ongoing trade on the spot Gold, where a harmonic pattern was analyzed & subsequently the price target was confirmed by another chart pattern - the Head & Shoulders.
This chart image shows the bullish Gartley which has been in process for some time.

In this Gartley though, the initial fib retracement of ‘B’ was not precise, but the other legs of the pattern formed accurately.
The parameters of the pattern have been laid down on the chart & I have plotted the fib projections for the expected price targets.
Price has broken the 127 fib level & we can expect a move to the 161 fib level…at least.
Should we close our trades when price gets to the 161 price target?
Ideally, yes.
Once a price objective has been met, one must always take the profits from the table.
But in this case, we can also identify a bullish Head & Shoulders pattern.

As seen in the chart, the price objective of this H & S pattern is yet to be achieved.
And it coincides with the fib projection level of 200 of the Gartley.
Now, even though the H & S objectives are usually met, there are no guarantees.
At the risk of repeating myself, we should take profits when we can, since we are traders & not astrologers -:)
Ideally, one should take most of the profits when (& if) price achieves the 161 fib level of the Gartley & still keep some positions running…in case price achieves the H & S objective.
That way you are positioned to take advantage of the larger moves & at the same time have already added to your capital.
The bottom line is that price action is never random & each & every price wave, will give you clues for the next wave….if you learn to look for the clues.
Happy trading.
Sunil Mangwani.

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-4-7 19:34

Sunil Mangwani.Catching the Butterfly & playing with the Gartley
Posted on July 11, 2008 at 15:17 in Uncategorized by Sunil Mangwani6 Comments »

Hi Folks,
Some more harmonic patterns formed precisely at the fib levels.
I want to discuss 2 separate patterns here, and combine the inferences to look ahead.
Price does respect the fib levels, as we shall see, but finally there is a certain amount of discretion required to look ahead.
First the Usd/Jpy -
On the daily time frame, we are looking for a completion of a bullish Gartley.

So, at present we are looking for price to go lower to complete the last leg of the pattern. Subsequently price may reverse from this level to give us a strong uptrend….but lets take things one step at a time.
Present circumstances - Technically the Usd/Jpy should weaken to 104.00 (appr.)
The other harmonic pattern is a Bearish Butterfly on the Nzd/Usd 1 hr time frame.

Due to precise nature of the fib levels, this pattern was traded intraday for longs.
As of now, the pattern has been completed, and we should be looking for reversal down.
Now logically, if the Usd/Jpy is to weaken further, its would mean that the Nzd/Usd should gain.
Hence at this stage, one of the above 2 patterns would not reach the logical conclusion.
This is where the "Trade plan" comes in.
Using personal discretion, one has to decide which pattern would have a better chance of completing.
One will come across such kind of contradictory situations quite often & I would like to make some relevant points here -
(1) Since we have seen the precise nature of the fibs, one should try & identify harmonic patterns on longer time frames & take trades within the pattern. In this way, you are not leaving anything to guesswork.
(2) In this present situation, a pattern on the daily time frame obviously has more weight age, than a pattern on the 1hr. So logically, I would be biased towards the Usd/Jpy.
(3) Lastly and the most important point - use proper money management, define the entry, exit & stop levels precisely, and take profits at the correct technical stages.
Remember, you are here to make profits, and there are no brownie points for the correct guess.
Sunil Mangwani

Classifying the harmonic patterns
Posted on July 10, 2008 at 7:41 in Uncategorized by Sunil Mangwani1 Comment »

Hi D Bista & Su25,
With reference to your comments on the “textbook Gartley”, I thought it would be a good opportunity to classify the different harmonic patterns….the way I see them.
Now, I have not come across this kind of classification anywhere & I could be wrong in my conclusions.
But over the number of years that I have been studying the fibs & harmonics, I have observed these subtle differences.
The best way to look at a harmonic pattern is to classify it as -
An impulsive wave (X to A) followed by two corrective waves (A to B and C to D) which ultimately gives rise to a larger impulsive wave (the price targets)
The main points that I follow are -

The retracement of X-A to point B usually identifies the kind of harmonic pattern that should ultimately form.

Point C is generally the weak link in the pattern. The retracement of A-B to point C could form at any fib ratio, right from 0.382 to 0.886.

Point D is the ultimate confirmation point of a harmonic pattern. ‘D’ will always form at a confluence of 2 fib levels (depending on the type of pattern) and these fib levels are very accurate. The 2 fib ratios (the Retracement of X-A AND the Projection of B-C) form precisely at the expected levels.

Let’s have a look at the specifics of the retracement ‘B’ (of the move from X to A) –

If ‘B’ is a shallow correction, and retraces to 38.2, then ‘D’ should form at 0.886 of X-A. – The Bat pattern

If ‘B’ is a normal correction, and retraces 50.0 to 61.8, then ‘D’ should form at 0.786 of X-A. – The Gartley pattern

If ‘B’ is a deep correction, and retraces 78.6, then ‘D’ should form at 1.272 of X-A. – The extended Butterfly pattern.

You will notice that the location of ‘D’ is based on the fib ratios of X-A, and the fib ratios of B-C have not been taken into consideration.
This is because I have observed that the B-C projections may vary from one fib level to another, but the fib ratios of X-A always form at the precise levels.
Another point is that I have not specified the other extended harmonic pattern of the “Crab”.
Very frankly, I have not been able to identify this pattern correctly while trading & I am still struggling to get the correct identification points for it.
The day I get it, you will be the first to know -J
Finally, some amount of discretion is required, since price will never behave exactly the way we expect. But this classification has given me an edge for the anticipated price moves & I hope it does the same for you.
I have attached an image showing the different types of the harmonic patterns for reference.
But again, from my experience, I have seen that it the Gartley & the Butterfly which occur more often & I would concentrate on these 2 more.

Sunil Mangwani.

When harmonics don’t work
Posted on July 10, 2008 at 7:29 in Uncategorized by Sunil MangwaniNo Comments »

Hi folks,
Lets get a dose of reality & look at a situation when an expected harmonic
pattern did not achieve the required targets.
In a previous post of "Still continuing with the harmonic patterns",
we analyzed a possible bearish Butterfly pattern on the Aud/Chf.
I am enclosing a chart of the present situation and if one compares it to the
chart in the previous post, we can see that the expected targets were not
achieved.

Which brings me back to my subject of "Forexology" -:)
One can never expect every trade to be successful. If you do, then you are
living in a fools paradise and you have lost even before you have begun.
Most newbie traders come in with unreasonable expectations and cannot accept
losses. This is one of the prime reasons for the trader’s failure.
It is only the experienced trader who realizes, that finally it is not the
technical setup which is important.
It is the proper use of the 3M’s - Money, Mind & Method (in that order)
which will ensure success.
Coming back to our example of Aud/Chf, I have always emphasized that one must
take profits at certain levels, to ensure that a winning trade does not turn
into a losing one.
As they say "A Dollar in hand is worth Two in the trade" -:))
In this case, I have plotted the fib levels from A to D, for expected fib
projection targets.
We can see that price stopped exactly at a fib retracement of 61.8 and changed
direction.
Now when price stops dead at a precise fib level, it tells me something has
changed.
In this case, one would have taken some profits at this stage, and maybe still
have some positions in the trade…in case price decides to "behave".
This ensures some profit has been added to my account.
However small the amount may be, its better than a loss.
Sunil Mangwani.

Tell me that fibs dont work -:)
Posted on July 9, 2008 at 16:56 in Uncategorized by Sunil Mangwani3 Comments »

Hello,
This is with reference to a comment posted earlier about a possible harmonic pattern -
"Could u look at Eur/USD 15 or 30 chart, there is a bullish gartley in the making,though its not ideal?"
As a matter of fact, this particular Gartley was an absolute textbook pattern, and I wanted to showcase the power of Fibonacci ratios.
I have enclosed the chart with the Gartley pattern clearly explained, and all the wave structures of the pattern formed at precise fib levels….to the ‘T’.

The most important point that one can see is the reaction of price at the precise fib levels.
Once we have such a precise price structure, the possibility of the targets being reached is very high.
Without getting into a predictive inference, lets put more emphasis on the fact that "price does respect fib levels"
Does this not give you an edge?
If we try and identify harmonic patterns on larger time frames, then one can trade the waves of the pattern on a smaller time frame, with the confidence of knowing the exact targets…..much before the crowd.
Trading is a business of probabilities & that edge is often the difference between success & failure.
Sunil Mangwani.

Harmonics within harmonics
Posted on July 8, 2008 at 12:41 in Uncategorized by Sunil Mangwani2 Comments »

All right, we are taking the harmonic patterns one step further.
Harmonics within harmonics !!!!!
You must be thinking that whatever will this man think of next -:)
I was analyzing the Eur/Jpy based on the comments of Su25 (who else -:) and
noticed something which I thought would be worth sharing.
Lets start with the Eur/Jpy 1hr.

This chart shows the expected bullish Gartley. As usual, I have specified the
parameters of the pattern with the specific fib ratios in the chart.
Now coming to forexology –
At this stage, price is almost on the completion of the last
leg of the pattern. As su25 rightly pointed out, it has stalled at the 61.8
level and there is a possibility that the pattern may not complete.
So, we sit on our hands & do nothing.
I don’t believe in trying to predict the direction that
price is going to take….there are no points for the right guess -J
But we follow the price and keep our trade plan ready.
In this case, if price does go down AND find support on the
78.6 level, then we get ready for a long.
If not, we look for other trades, or go for a swim or a
round of golf -J
Okay, so that is the plan for the 1hr.
Now I would be biased towards the view that price should
complete this pattern, because on the 4hr, we can identify a bearish butterfly.

Again it is an expected pattern and the parameters have been
defined in the chart.
But lets take a closer look at the leg B-C of this
butterfly, which is yet to be completed.
Price could come down to the support level ‘C’…WHICH IS THE
LEVEL ‘D’ OF THE BULLISH GARTLEY ON THE 1HR.
If at all this situation occurs, then price is expected to
rally from here to go up to the level ‘D’ of this 4hr butterfly….WHICH IS THE
EXPECTED TARGET OF THE BULLISH GARTLEY ON THE 1HR.
So, Harmonics within harmonics ??
Will they work…..we don’t know.
But for the serious learners of the harmonic patterns, this
is a good exercise in spotting patterns.
Have fun.
Sunil Mangwani

Harmonics again !!!
Posted on July 8, 2008 at 11:37 in Uncategorized by Sunil MangwaniNo Comments »

Hi Folks,
Ok, another harmonic pattern to discuss & analyse -:)
On the Usd/Jpy - 4hr, we have the possibility of a bearish Butterfly pattern.
(Nice names…by the way…butterfly, crab, bat…all sorts of insects & birds -:)
Anyway, back to business -
I have enclosed the chart showing the expected moves within this pattern.

Now, again, I must emphasize on the point, that one can never be sure of price going the way you expect.
We are traders & we want to pull out profits from the markets.
This is why I tend to identify these patterns on longer term time frames.
Firstly, we can trade intra day in the direction of an expected move. Now this expected move is one leg of the pattern identified on the longer time frame.
Secondly, we take advantage of the fact that price has a very high probability of reacting at the Fib levels.
Taking this example, we can see that price found resistance (at B) at the 78.6 Fib retracement quite precisely. Hence one would tend to take short trades from here, since a fib resistance is an important level.
I would initially trade a short only till the expected target (of C, as shown)
If price does manage to move as anticipated, then we think of the next leg.
Putting "Forexology" into practice, plan your trade and then go for it with no second guessing.
The advantage of the Fib levels & the harmonic patterns, is that they tend to play out quite successfully.
This can give you a definite advantage.
Sunil Mangwani

Forexology and Harmonics ??
Posted on July 8, 2008 at 10:26 in Uncategorized by Sunil Mangwani5 Comments »

Hi folks,
It looks like my subject of Forexology is being pushed to the background -:)
The contents of this blog were (& still are) devoted to the other aspects of trading - money management & the psychology of trading.
As I had mentioned, there is enough content available on technical analysis.
But I had not reckoned with the power of Harmonic patterns.
Since we have started discussing harmonic patterns, I have been getting a lot of comments/ questions on these patterns & coincidentally, we seem to be seeing them everywhere.
The fact is that these patterns are very effective, since they rely on specific Fibonacci ratios.
And at the same time, they have a slightly complicated structure.
Once I have started with these patterns, my intention is to continue to delve into these patterns specifically, and try and make them simple and easy-to-understand.
And based on the comments / mails that I have received, this seems to be the general consensus.
I think I should re-name my blog as "Forexolgy & Harmonic patterns" ?? -:)
So lets go ahead and combine this effective pattern with the non-technical aspects of trading.
I will be discussing Harmonics as & when we spot them & also write my thoughts on "forexology"….and will continue to do so, till I get brickbats -:)
Sunil Mangwani

« Newer posts – Older posts »

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-4-7 19:35

Posted on July 7, 2008 at 11:21 in Uncategorized by Sunil Mangwani3 Comments »
This is actually with reference to a comment from the previous harmonic post about a trade setup -
Hi Sunil
Is there a bearish butterfly pattern in the making on AUD/CHF 1 hr chart with target for point D=0.9900 area?
Regards
su25
I am putting it up as a new post since I have to put up the chart for it.
In fact, I am replying to it, after price has moved to the expected target.
Now its always easy to look back at a situation & comment - "see, I told you it works" -:) but this is not my intention.
This particular trade was a combination of 2 setups…both of which follow the Fib ratios quite precisely, and my intention is to show that……and of course, say "Tell me that Fibs dont work" -:)

In reply to the above mentioned comment, price now has completed the last leg of the bearish Butterfly pattern, and has found resistance precisely at the Fib levels of the pattern.
I have put in all the parameters of the pattern in the chart image and the main point that one can observe is how price pivots around the Fibonacci levels so precisely.
Along with the harmonic pattern of the Bearish Butterfly" price had also formed a bullish divergence, which was a double confirmation that we could be looking at strong up moves…to the fib targets.
And coincidentally, the expected targets of the bullish divergence were the same as the last let (wave CD) of the Harmonic pattern.
Which brings us to the present.
Since the bearish harmonic pattern has been completed, we expect price to reverse from here.
Will it ???? Now thats putting your money where your mouth is -:)
And this where "Forexology" comes in.
"Plan your trade & Trade your plan" We are traders & we will only take setups when price confirms the parameters.
In any harmonic pattern, the break of the mid point ‘B’ becomes a confirmation of the expected trend. In this case, one would wait for a close below (the high of) ‘B’, to consider further moves to the downside. Till then, we are in a "No-Trade" zone & we wait patiently for price to give us the clues.
Sunil Mangwani

ECB live coverage
Posted on July 3, 2008 at 15:40 in Uncategorized by Sunil Mangwani1 Comment »

Hi,
We had the live coverage of the ECB interest rates and the NFP data, which turned out to be a great event. It was 2 hours of live coverage and watching the market reactions to the important data.
It was covered by Valeria and myself and was watched by more than 1600 users.
I am posting the conclusions of the event -
Valeria Bednarik -
As Sunil said, the less hawkish comments and the expectations os a far
worse Payroll turned market dollar positive: the fact of buying the
rumor selling the news expresed at the beginning of this live coverage,
was pretty clear today: market priced in the 4.25 but not the tone of
Trichet speech. although the day is far from over, the close of today’s
candles will pretty much help us to define dollar future: we have DJIA
opening in a few seconds, and some more data in the US the ISM non
manufac. A bad reading there could trigger a correction from here. yet
not much more turns
Sunil Mangwani -
The ECB raised the interest rates by 25 basis points, which was widely
expected and factored in by the market. Hence the initial reaction to
the currencies was quite muted. It was the NFP data & the speech by
Trichet which finally saw some large movements. As discussed, the
Euro did not rally since the ECB comments were interpreted as "not
hawkish", and this could set the stage for some pullbacks in the
Eur/Usd. Technically some support levels at 1.5700 could still hold,
but for a short time,we could see some retracements on this pair.
Regards,
Sunil.

Continuing with the harmonic patterns
Posted on July 2, 2008 at 19:08 in Uncategorized by Sunil Mangwani4 Comments »

Bingo !!
This is what one would want to say, when your analysis is followed to the "T".
We have been following the Usd/Jpy (refer to the previous post of Harmonic patterns) and price has respected the Fibonacci levels quite precisely.
Skeptics may say that the anticipated price action may have taken place due to fundamental factors.
Well…maybe…It may have been the trigger for the move, but why would price react at specific levels?
But lets not gloat over one good trade.
Trading is a game of probabilities & we should always expect losing trades (giving the skeptics the opportunity to say…"see I told you so" -:)
So lets take this as an example of a well prepared trade…in the process.
The trade is still in the process, even as I write & still has to be managed.
Coming to the technicals & replying to an earlier query - Since the target of 106.75 was achieved, will 104.50 be the next target?
The setups of the bearish Elliot wave & the bearish Gartley certainly point to the 104.50 level.
But again, managing the trade & money management play a key role in the success of the trade.
I would recommend taking profits at certain levels in between & then following the price with trailing stops.
We don’t want a winning trade to turn into a losing one, and small profits are definitely better than any losses.
Plus with 2 important fundamental news expected on Thursday 3rd July, lets not take any chances.
Both the data releases (of the ECB interest rate & the US NFP) are expected to have a major impact on the currencies.
Incidentally, FxStreet will be covering these important events live.
Valeria Bednarik & myself will be the experts for this event
http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/central-banks-special-coverage-ecb/2008-07-02.html
Sunil Mangwani

Connecting the previous posts
Posted on July 2, 2008 at 5:54 in Uncategorized by Sunil MangwaniNo Comments »

Hi Folks,
Just wanted to put in a clarification for the previous posts.
The post of "Harmonic patterns" was actually a reply to a comment of the previous post of "Keep it simple".
It inadvertently got posted as new entry, and I want to give the correct link back to it.
Sunil.

Harmonic patterns
Posted on July 1, 2008 at 21:13 in Uncategorized by Sunil Mangwani3 Comments »

Hi su25,
Well, you answered the question before I could -J
But in any case, let’s go over the harmonics, since this would be a nice example of applying it on the live markets.
I have attached a chart showing the Gartley that you identified, which, by the way, was identified nicely.
As the comments on the chart mention, we would expect price to rally up to the pt.D of the pattern, since the confluence of 3 levels seem to forming quite accurately.

If, indeed, price does go up to this level AND finds resistance there, then we are looking at some strong down moves.
The ideal way to trade this pattern would be -
Enter short at the break of (the high of) pt.B.
Stop to placed above pt.D.
Expected targets – Fib projection 127 / 161 plotted from pt.A to pt.D.
Another confirmation of the expected down move is that we had observed a bearish Elliot wave…before we had this Harmonic pattern.

We had been following this Elliot wave in my live trading room, and I am attaching a chart image which was taken during the Asian session…much before price moved to this level.
This finally brings me to the conclusion.
Tell me that Fibs don’t work -J
Whether you identify an Elliot wave, or a harmonic pattern, both of them are based on Fibonacci ratios.
Now, we don’t know whether this pattern will play out as per our analysis.
I repeat myself by saying that we are traders, and not astrologers.
We don’t predict where price is going to be.
We follow price movement and take trades at the correct levels.
An awareness of the Fibonacci ratios & the knowledge that price respects these levels, would have made some good trades within this entire setup.
Sunil Mangwani.

Keep it simple.
Posted on June 30, 2008 at 13:45 in Uncategorized by Sunil Mangwani2 Comments »

During my regular webinar at FxStreet earlier, we had an interesting discussion on the use of technical analysis.
I thought this topic would be worth sharing and putting across for the views of other traders.
We were in the middle of discussing Harmonic patterns & Fibonacci ratios, which is not a very easy analysis.
And we had an opinion that the harmonic patterns are too complicated and its best to keep things simple.
While I am very much in favor of the “Keep It Simple Silly – KISS principle, its my personal opinion that it should not stop a trader from learning something new….which will give him/her an advantage in trading.
After all, everything in the beginning is difficult & gets easier with practice.
When you started learning technical analysis, did you have difficulty initially in understanding the basic workings of the indicators?
I am sure you did.
But after some time, it became easy & natural.
Let me go towards the technical part to drive home my point.
I have seen that price tends to respect Fibonacci levels quite accurately, and the correct use of Fib ratios can definitely give the trader an edge.
I would call it an earlier “Heads Up”, where you can anticipate upcoming levels of resistance / support…before the crowd.
A Harmonic pattern is a series of price retracements & projections which form a very accurate trade setup.
Without getting too much into the actual detail, let’s just take the base of the pattern.
The initial pullback of a price movement gives clues of the kind of harmonic pattern that should form, which in turn gives you the anticipated price movement.
If this can give me a “heads up” of the anticipated price structure, then it should be worth my while to understand this pattern.
Coming back to our topic, should I be content with the “simple” things I know, of technical analysis & keep following them?
Well, one school of thought says that “If it ain’t broke…don’t fix it”
So, if a trader is successful with the “simple” system he/she is following, then obviously, one would not want to complicate things further.
But if a trader is not getting the results from the trading, should he not try & improve the trading by implementing new & different techniques, which could give him better results?
Or should he desist from it, because it’s complicated?
Your opinions, please.

Having faith in your system.
Posted on June 25, 2008 at 13:26 in Uncategorized by Sunil Mangwani2 Comments »

Do you have doubts while placing a trade order?
Do you hesitate to get in a trade, even though all the factors for the trade have lined up perfectly?
Trusting your analysis, and pulling the trigger at the correct time, without any second thoughts, can be a real challenge.
It’s a natural part of trading and overcoming this problem is one of the key hurdles, which a trader has to overcome.
First & foremost, it is the faith and confidence that one must have in the system. Whatever technique one has decided to follow, one must enter the trade with no second guessing.
Easier said than done!
And this is exactly what we need to discuss.
How does one do that?
From personal experience, I can tell you that this comes from taking trade after trade based on the same technique, regardless of the outcome.
This is the key….regardless of the outcome.
In the process of trading, one will experience losses.
For most traders, this is the most difficult part to accept.
It’s not easy to accept a loss.
More than the financial loss, the effects of the psychological damage are more pronounced. Most of the times, it results in a “revenge” frame of mind.
It’s a natural human tendency to want to recover the loss & I have seen a lot of traders “get back” to the market by doubling their positions.
This is the beginning of a vicious circle that would only end in a greater loss.
Hence one has to learn to look at losses very objectively.
What I do, is look at these losses as a necessary expense, since one is learning from it…..here, I assume, that a trader would learn from the mistakes.
Taking an example, if you have to travel from one city to another by car, you would need to fill gas in the vehicle.
Would you consider this gas expense as a loss? The bottom line is that you have spent the amount, which is not going to come back to you.
I would look at this expense as a necessary requirement, since it is getting me from one city to another.
Similarly, if you learn from a loss, then it only adds to your experience…and makes you a better trader.
So….is it a loss or a necessary expense?
Coming back to the topic, we can conclude that the faith in your system comes only after taking it time & again…regardless of the losses.
So it has to chart time, chart time & chart time, till you know your system inside out…which then gives you the confidence.
One note of caution – One has to back test the system to check its effectiveness, before you start using it in real time.
There are different factors that go towards making a system effective & I would not advise trading with a technique which cannot give you positive results.
It would naturally end in losses & more losses….then you would want to catch my neck & say….you told me so -J
The second important factor is money management.
If you do not risk more than 2% of your capital at any given time, your risks become affordable.
Hence you go into a trade knowing that even if it ends in a loss, these losses can be taken in stride.
That itself, should give you the confidence of taking a trade.
The flip side is that one feels the expected profits will also be small, and one would tend to increase the capital exposure.
And this is where the discipline comes in.
Once you have decided on a certain procedure, you must have the discipline to follow it.
Most traders do not give the time to the technique, to prove itself.
Human nature being what it is, one tends to look for another technique because this one has had some losses.
And most traders quit a system when they have put in a lot of efforts, and are almost at the finish line.
This is not the place to give up.
The bottom line is that a trader should learn to analyze the markets for himself.
Only when he knows why price is moving…the way it does…will he have an edge & the confidence in the technique.
It’s only when you stick to one plan that you tend to make it perfect.

Beginner’s expectations.
Posted on June 20, 2008 at 17:45 in Uncategorized by Sunil MangwaniNo Comments »

Plan to make living from trading the forex markets??? ……yes, it can be done.
Let me first tell you, that it’s not an easy task, but not impossible either.
The first fact that one must keep the expectations small & reasonable.
The statistics say that 85% of the traders lose money.
In my opinion, most of them come with the wrong expectations into this business. They look at this as a Get-Rich-Quick game, and thus lose even before they have a chance.
If you think you are going to double your account in a month, then you are better off in a casino…at least you will have fun while losing money -:)
Trading has to be treated as any other business & it involves hard work, patience & determination.
Secondly, one would naturally tend to equate this business with the normal everyday situations that we come across.
In the real world, one gets paid at the end of the month, for the effort & work that one puts in.
Trading on the other hand, may not pay you consistently every month and a trader could even end the month with losses.
One must keep in mind, is that losses are inevitable in trading…and therefore money management plays a far more important role in your success, than technical analysis.
The basic concepts are -
Keep your expected profits at a reasonable level, and start with a fixed target per month. That I am going to increase my account by 5 to 10% a month, or I plan to make 30 points on every trade etc. Keep it realistic enough to happen.
Accept that you will have losing trades. The market is too big and too unpredictable. Finally trading is a game of probabilities, and your trading plan has to have that extra edge. Even the professionals consider that 5 winning trades out every 10 trades taken, is a very good win-loss ratio.
Keep a Risk-to-Reward ratio of at least 1:2. This simply means that for every risk (stop level) of (say) 30 points, your profits should be at least 60 points. Hence one winning trade should take care of 2 losing trades, which is the only way to make your equity grow.
Concentrate more on losses. Always consider the worst case scenarios. And if you accept that these losses are acceptable, you are prepared. As they say, take care of your losses, and the profits will come.
Remember, making money in forex is not difficult. It’s making money consistently which is the challenge.

Introduction - What is Forexology
Posted on June 17, 2008 at 9:21 in Uncategorized by Sunil Mangwani1 Comment »

Enough and more information is available about technical analysis, indicators, chart patterns, trade setups etc. etc.
But surprisingly, very few traders look outside the box and strive to understand the other factors which go into the trading process – the psychology of trading, money management….and a “Trading Plan”.
I could label “forexology” as the combination of these principles, which are more important than technical analysis, and ironically, the most ignored.
Let me introduce myself.
My name is Sunil Mangwani & I am a Physics graduate with a Diploma in Financial Management.
I have been trading the forex market since the last 6 years and devise simple trading strategies based on my vast knowledge and in-depth study in the field of technical analysis.
But in my years of trading and experience of teaching technical analysis, I realized that applying technical analysis is not enough to be a successful trader.
One can be successful in this exciting, fulfilling and yet demanding business, if and only if, one has a definite plan on how to approach the market.
If a trader has an iron clad “Trading Plan”, it automatically puts the trader into the top 15% bracket of the winners.
I now conduct special coaching for developing specific trade plans from my website www.fibforex123.com
My vast repertoire of services on this website also includes Live Trading room training, special webinars on educational topics & advanced trading strategies.
When I got the opportunity of presenting a blog on Fxstreet, to convey important & relevant thoughts on forex trading, it was only natural for me to think about forexology.
The underlying principle & the most important factor that I concentrate on, is the concept of 3M’s – Mind, Money & Method.
At the risk of repeating myself, most traders are not aware of the following fact -
If one were to distribute the 3M’s (Mind, Money & Method) on a scale of 1 to 10,
Money Management would account for 50%;
Psychology of trading would account for 30%;
Technical analysis would account for only 20%.
This by itself should highlight the fact that a trader should give more emphasis to the factors of forexology.
In this blog, I will be presenting my thoughts on the concepts of Trading Plan, Money Management & the Psychology of Trading.
My intention is to make the traders realize the importance of these topics & I will be touching on technical analysis only when required.
This does not, in any way, diminish the importance of technical analysis, since the foundation of a “Trading Plan” has to be a technical strategy.
We will, of course, be talking about trades, because we are here to trade and trade successfully.
But I will be giving more weight to the factors of forexology, to create a larger awareness.
I will be putting my thoughts regularly and will also include relevant situations which we come across in my live trading room.
Every day, every moment, the markets throw us different & unique situations and if one learns these lessons, it paves the way to success.
I would appreciate your comments and suggestions for this….and of course, bouquets & brickbats are welcome -J
Sunil Mangwani
www.fibforex123.com

A Trading plan
Posted on June 16, 2008 at 14:35 in Uncategorized by Sunil MangwaniNo Comments »

Surprisingly, the simple fact of preparing and following a trading plan could be the difference between success & failure in trading.
This is something which I repeatedly try to drum into the new traders, but human nature being what it is -:)), people don’t realize the importance of it.
For a new trader, and for that matter, even for an experienced one, I hope I can save a lot of unwanted stress & losses by pointing out the relevant facts.
You must have a Trading plan.
It’s just as simple as that, but it is very important.
Whether you trade on technicals, on fundamentals, on the news release or even by tossing a coin -:)), you must have your plan written in front of you…BEFORE you enter a trade.
And it has to be in black & white, with no shades of grey.
The simple fact is that most traders lose, because they just enter a trade when they see price rising or falling.
If you don’t know the reason for your trade entry, your battle is lost right at the beginning.
The bottom line is – Decide on your technical strategy & finalize a precise plan around that strategy which should clearly define -
What should be the conditions for entry?
Where you would put your stop?
Where you would exit the trade?
How much capital will you risk on this trade?
What would you do if the trade turns against you?
When & where would you take profits & when would you let a trade run?
And subsequently -
Have the patience to wait for this setup and not trade till this technical setup occurs.
Once it occurs, have the discipline to follow the plan to the "T" with no deviation & no room for emotions.
Finally -
The trade may not turn out to be a winner, but accept that losses are a part of trading and there will be more opportunities.
Don’t look at a single trade to gauge your success or failure.
The war consists of many battles, and one should consider this as a long term business with a steady growth, and not an Overnight-Get-Rich-Scheme.

« Newer posts

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-4-7 19:47

FX Path

Technical Trading Tips and Techniques by James Chen, Chief Technical Strategist at FX Solutions.

Posted on April 6, 2009 at 16:38 in Analysis by James ChenNo Comments »
The EUR/GBP cross has descended in the past week all the way down to an important uptrend support line extending from the late October low just below 0.7700. For more technical analysis on this currency pair, please click here for Monday’s Chart of the Day.

GBP/USD - Rejected Near Resistance
Posted on April 6, 2009 at 13:56 in Analysis by James ChenNo Comments »

Price action on GBP/USD as of Monday (4/06/2009) morning has been rejected around the key resistance imposed by the already double-tested price region just below 1.5. This resistance zone is important because it has been tested and respected on two separate occasions in January and February. On Monday’s daily bar, price reached all the way up to 1.4956 before exhausting its bullish momentum and retreating. Any further bearishness on this retreat should find dynamic support around the bottom border of the short-term parallel uptrend channel extending from the 3/11/2009 low. Conversely, a subsequent breakout above the current resistance could eventually target further resistance around the level of the 1/8/2009 swing high.

Forex Levels to Watch (Week of Apr 6-10, 2009)
Posted on April 5, 2009 at 15:00 in Analysis by James ChenNo Comments »

Here are some major forex support/resistance price levels to watch for (breaks/bounces) during the upcoming trading week of April 6-10, 2009:
EUR/USD - Support 1.3300 / Resistance 1.3735
USD/JPY - Support 99.65 / Resistance 101.50
GBP/USD - Support 1.4650 / Resistance 1.4980
USD/CHF - Support 1.1150/ Resistance 1.1400
- James Chen, CTA, CMT
For more information on my newly-released book, Essentials of Foreign Exchange Trading (Wiley), please click here.

EUR/USD - Weekly Forex Analysis for April 6-10, 2009
Posted on April 5, 2009 at 3:05 in Analysis by James Chen2 Comments »

EUR/USD (a daily chart of which is shown) adhered to a short-term uptrend support line this past week, as it recovered partially from a substantial drop the week before. This drop can be considered a pullback to the uptrend support line, which extends from the 1.2455 low hit on 3/4/2009. When measuring this pullback, or dip, from a Fibonacci perspective, it represents almost precisely a 50% retracement of the bullish run from 1.2455 to 1.3736. Currently re-approaching a long-term downtrend resistance line extending from the double-top high of 1.6037 hit on 7/15/2008, price has recently been taking on somewhat of a bullish bias. For the upcoming week of April 6-10, 2009, the main event to watch for would be any strong break and close above this long-term downtrend line which, with follow-through, should target further resistance around the last double-tested high of 1.3735. And any significant break above that level would confirm a bullish continuation of the new uptrend. To the downside, the noted short-term uptrend support line should continue to serve as dynamic support for the pair, at least for the near-term.
James Chen, CTA, CMT
For more information on my newly-released book, Essentials of Foreign Exchange Trading (Wiley), please click here.

USD/JPY - Weekly Forex Analysis for April 6-10, 2009
Posted on April 5, 2009 at 3:03 in Analysis by James ChenNo Comments »

USD/JPY (a daily chart of which is shown) struggled to reach the key 100.00 price level for most of the past week, unable to break this important psychological level until Friday, when price closed the week just around 25 pips above it. Price has not had a daily close above 100.00 for more than five months, so a break of this critical level, even if slight, is a significant technical event. After breaking out and closing above the last high of 99.66, price has tentatively confirmed an uptrend continuation. To begin the upcoming week of April 6-10, 2009, any further bullish momentum that stays above the 100.00 mark could eventually target further major resistance in the 103.00-103.50 support/resistance zone. To the downside, in the event of a break back below 100.00, price should find clear dynamic support around the short-term uptrend support line extending from the second bottom of the 87.00 double bottom, which occurred on 1/21/2009.
James Chen, CTA, CMT
For more information on my newly-released book, Essentials of Foreign Exchange Trading (Wiley), please click here.

Chart of the Day - 4/03/2009 – GBP/USD
Posted on April 3, 2009 at 17:20 in Analysis by James Chen2 Comments »

Price action on GBP/USD has displayed significant bullishness since the pair bounced up off the triple support provided by: the 1.4100 horizontal support level, a short-term uptrend channel support line, and a medium-term downtrend support line. For more technical analysis on this currency pair, please click here for Friday’s (4/3/2009) Chart of the Day.

AUD/USD - Stalled Near Resistance
Posted on April 3, 2009 at 14:21 in Analysis by James Chen5 Comments »

Price action on AUD/USD, a daily chart of which is shown, has stalled and retreated around key resistance in the 0.7230-60 region. This occurs after price broke out strongly above a flag continuation pattern. The current resistance area is a highly valid support/resistance zone, as price has turned several times in this zone both in the recent and distant past. Therefore, if price breaks out substantially above it, bullish momentum should be strong, and could eventually target the 0.7700 price region, a major support/resistance level to the upside. Conversely, if the current resistance is ultimately respected, the 0.6800 region should serve as major support to the downside.

USD/JPY - Reaching for 100
Posted on April 2, 2009 at 16:06 in Analysis by James ChenNo Comments »

After bouncing up off the key 96.00 support/resistance level early this week, price action on USD/JPY has reached all the way up to just a few pips shy of the targeted 100.00 level. For more technical analysis on this currency pair, please click here for Thursday’s Chart of the Day.

EUR/USD - Uptrend Support Bounce
Posted on April 2, 2009 at 13:34 in Analysis by James Chen4 Comments »

Bullish price action on EUR/USD, a daily chart of which is shown, as of Thursday morning has made a pronounced bounce up off a short-term uptrend support line extending from the early March 1.2455 low. This bounce is now targeting once again a long-term downtrend line extending from the 1.6037 all-time high back in mid-July 2008. In the event of a subsequent break and significant close above this long-term resistance trendline, price could conceivably shoot for a retest of the recent 1.3735 double-tested high. The noted short-term uptrend line should continue to serve as dynamic support for the pair, at least for the near-term.

AUD/USD - Conflicting Signals in Consolidation
Posted on April 1, 2009 at 12:04 in Analysis by James Chen2 Comments »

AUD/USD, as shown on the accompanying daily chart, has consolidated in a flag formation after showing signs of some significant bearishness earlier on in the week. After breaking down below the 0.6850 support/resistance level on Monday, price subsequently bounced right back up and into the current flag pattern consolidation. While this flag hints at an upside continuation break, oscillators are showing signs of a bullish exhaustion, as price is moving back down from overbought territory. In the event of a strong upside break above the top flag border and the key 0.7100 level, price action should target further resistance around the 0.7265 high.

Older posts »

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-4-7 19:49

support. To the upside, a major resistance target resides just below 0.7100.GBP/USD - Targeting 1.4000
Posted on March 30, 2009 at 14:06 in Analysis by James ChenNo Comments »

Monday morning price action on GBP/USD, a daily chart of which is shown, has extended its bearishness of last week, and currently appears to be targeting key support in the 1.4000 region. This price region combines a confluence of technical factors including: prior horizontal support/resistance; a key psychological level; short-term parallel uptrend channel support; and long-term downtrend line support. Therefore, any substantial breakdown below this level should carry a significant bearish bias that could subsequently target a re-test of 1.3655 support (the last major swing low). In the event of a bounce at or above 1.4000, the last major swing high around 1.4775 should serve as strong resistance to the upside.
UPDATE: As of Monday late afternoon, price has retraced much of the bearishness from the morning. Price is currently rising towards strong resistance in the 1.4300 region after respecting the support offered by both the short-term uptrend line and the long-term downtrend line.

Forex Levels to Watch (Week of Mar 30 - Apr 3, 2009)
Posted on March 29, 2009 at 15:10 in Analysis by James Chen6 Comments »

Here are some major forex support/resistance price levels to watch for (breaks/bounces) during the upcoming trading week of March 30 - April 3, 2009:
EUR/USD - Support 1.3000 / Resistance 1.3735
USD/JPY - Support 94.50 / Resistance 98.85
GBP/USD - Support 1.4000 / Resistance 1.4775
USD/CHF - Support 1.1400/ Resistance 1.1800
- James Chen, CTA, CMT
For more information on my newly-released book, Essentials of Foreign Exchange Trading (Wiley), please click here.

EUR/USD - Weekly Forex Analysis for March 30 to April 3, 2009
Posted on March 28, 2009 at 20:16 in Analysis by James Chen8 Comments »

EUR/USD (a daily chart of which is shown) consolidated for most of last week after rising dramatically during the prior week. But on this past Friday (3/27/2009), the consolidation was unexpectedly broken to the downside with a forceful 300-pip plunge. Originally, a well-defined bullish pennant pattern was in the making, but Friday’s drop invalidated the pennant as a continuation pattern, and transformed it into a potential reversal pattern. This pattern also occurred around an important downtrend resistance line extending from the second test of 1.6 back in July. Price has, for the time being, respected this trendline and settled down to end the past week around major support in the key 1.3300 support/resistance region, which represents a critical juncture. The beginning of the upcoming week of March 30 to April 3 should provide indications as to the pair’s directional bias going forward. Any substantial move below 1.3300 should head straight toward 1.3000, a critical price region from a trend perspective. Any move below that level could invalidate the recent double-bottom trend reversal. Conversely, a subsequent breakout above the noted long-term downtrend resistance line would help confirm a new uptrend targeting immediate further resistance around 1.3850.
James Chen, CTA, CMT
For more information on my newly-released book, Essentials of Foreign Exchange Trading (Wiley), please click here.

USD/JPY - Weekly Forex Analysis for March 30 to April 3, 2009
Posted on March 28, 2009 at 20:13 in Analysis by James ChenNo Comments »

USD/JPY (a daily chart of which is shown) recovered this past week from most of the drop that it experienced during the prior week. The key resistance level to target on this recovery was 99.65, a re-test or break of which would have had significant bullish ramifications. Instead, price fell short, double-testing 98.85 towards the end of this past week before failing and retreating. This currency pair, however, can still be considered to be within the normal bounds of a new uptrend. Currently, there is at least a 300-pip cushion to the downside (to around 94.50) before the uptrend can confidently be considered invalidated. To the upside, any breakout above the double-tested 98.85 should work its way towards the key 100.00 mark, passing the recent 99.65 high along the way. And any break above 100.00 could target further major resistance around the 102.50 price region.
James Chen, CTA, CMT
For more information on my newly-released book, Essentials of Foreign Exchange Trading (Wiley), please click here.

Point and Figure Charting in Forex
Posted on March 27, 2009 at 14:31 in Announcements, Education by James ChenNo Comments »

Just some thoughts on point & figure (p&f) charting in the forex market. Some may characterize point & figure charting as trading based upon pure price action. This is because only price, which is undeniably the most important aspect of technical analysis, is customarily included on this type of chart (in the form of X’s and O’s). Other data that can readily be found on bar and candlestick charts, like time and period opens/closes, are generally excluded on p&f charts. This leaves only the uncluttered purity of price action.
Trading from a p&f chart, like the historical EUR/USD chart shown here, generally involves a good amount of looking for breakouts. For example, whereas double and triple tops on bar charts are usually thought of as reversal patterns, they are considered breakout patterns on p&f charts. There are some intricacies to learning how to use point & figure, but they offer a whole new technical viewpoint to the typical foreign exchange trader.
I will be conducting an FXstreet.com open webinar next month devoted entirely to trading forex using point & figure charts. Please click here for more information and to pre-register.
James Chen, CTA, CMT
For more information on my newly-released book, Essentials of Foreign Exchange Trading (Wiley), please click here.

Chart of the Day - 3/26/2009 – USD/JPY
Posted on March 26, 2009 at 16:59 in Analysis by James ChenNo Comments »

Yen weakness this week has translated into a USD/JPY recovery that currently appears to be targeting a potential uptrend continuation. For more technical analysis on this currency pair, please click here for Thursday’s Chart of the Day.
UPDATE: As of early Friday morning (3/27/2009), dollar-bearish price action has made a tentative reversal back down below the downtrend resistance line, hinting at a possible false break scenario. There was a clear double-test failure at around 98.85.

USD/CAD - Yet Another Pennant Pattern
Posted on March 26, 2009 at 13:11 in Analysis by James Chen2 Comments »

Similar to other dollar-based pairs, USD/CAD (a daily chart of which is shown) is displaying a clear inverted pennant consolidation. This occurs after coming down off the fourth test of 1.3 resistance. In the event that this pennant is broken convincingly to the downside to confirm a continuation pattern, price should likely assume a significantly bearish stance, which should meet initial support in the 1.2100 price region.
UPDATE: As of early Friday morning (3/27/2009), price action on USD/CAD has invalidated the inverted pennant as a consolidation pattern, breaking instead in the opposite direction. This patterns appears now to be acting tentatively as a reversal consolidation.

« Newer posts – Older posts »

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-4-7 19:50

Posted on March 25, 2009 at 12:45 in Analysis by James ChenNo Comments »

An inverted pennant consolidation as of Wednesday morning has formed on USD/CHF, a daily chart of which is shown, just as a tentative flag has formed on EUR/USD. These small consolidation patterns after dramatic dollar-weakening moves last week hint at the possibility of continuations in the direction of these moves, but only if there are significant breakouts of these patterns. In the case of USD/CHF, a breakdown of the inverted pennant should meet immediate support just above the 1.1100 region. And any breakdown of that support level would indicate substantial continuing bearishness in the pair that could target further major support levels to the downside. A similar situation, but in an opposite fashion, should hold true for EUR/USD on any upside breakout of the flag pattern.
UPDATE: As of early Friday morning (3/27/2009), price action has invalidated these flags/pennants as continuation patterns, breaking instead in the opposite directions. These patterns appear now to be acting as reversal consolidations.

FXstreet.com March Monthly Webinar Recording
Posted on March 24, 2009 at 17:55 in Announcements, Education by James ChenNo Comments »

FXstreet.com’s March Monthly Webinar (Part 1) that I conducted last week has been recorded and posted online for you to view at your leisure. The webinar was entitled “Trading Forex on a Daily Basis Using Daily Charts.” Here is the link to the video: http://transcripts.fxstreet.com/2009/03/trading-forex-on-a-daily-basis-using-daily-charts.html .
Thank you,
James Chen, CTA, CMT
For more information on my newly-released book, Essentials of Foreign Exchange Trading (Wiley), please click here.

USD/JPY - Bullish Recovery
Posted on March 24, 2009 at 14:11 in Analysis by James Chen1 Comment »

USD/JPY, a daily chart of which is shown, has recovered most of its losses from late last week, and now appears poised potentially to re-test the recent 4-month high around 99.65 hit just earlier this month. Currently, price is just below a short-term downtrend resistance line. A breakout of both this line and the 99.65 high would confirm an uptrend continuation. Follow-through above the key 100.00 level could eventually target further major resistance in the 102.50 region. To the downside, the 94.50 region should continue to provide strong support for the pair going forward.

Chart of the Day - 3/23/2009 – USD/CAD
Posted on March 23, 2009 at 17:51 in Analysis by James ChenNo Comments »

Like other dollar-based pairs, USD/CAD has tentatively entered into a consolidation after the dollar plunge that occurred last week. The drop last week broke down below major uptrend and downtrend support, finally retreating back up at a point just above key support in the 1.2100 region. For more technical analysis on this pair, please click here for Monday’s (3/23/2009) Chart of the Day.

USD/CHF - Consolidation/Retracement After Plunge
Posted on March 23, 2009 at 13:48 in Analysis by James ChenNo Comments »

After the 700+ pip plummet last week, price action on USD/CHF as of Monday morning has entered into what currently appears to be a lower volatility consolidation with indications of a potential bullish retracement. There is a distinct possibility for an inverted flag pattern to develop. Any bullish retracement/consolidation that occurs should meet resistance around the 1.1400 price region. A subsequent breakdown below the 1.1100 region would confirm a downward continuation that could eventually target the 1.0700 support/resistance region.

Forex Levels to Watch (Week of Mar 23-27, 2009)
Posted on March 22, 2009 at 15:15 in Analysis by James ChenNo Comments »

Here are some important forex support/resistance price levels to watch for (breaks/bounces) during the upcoming trading week of March 23-27, 2009:
EUR/USD - Support 1.3300 / Resistance 1.3850
USD/JPY - Support 94.50 / Resistance 99.65
GBP/USD - Support 1.4300 / Resistance 1.4600
USD/CHF - Support 1.1120/ Resistance 1.1400
- James Chen, CTA, CMT
For more information on my newly-released book, Essentials of Foreign Exchange Trading (Wiley), please click here.

EUR/USD - Weekly Analysis for March 23-27, 2009
Posted on March 21, 2009 at 22:41 in Analysis by James Chen3 Comments »

EUR/USD (a daily chart of which is shown) made some dramatic, fundamentally-driven moves to the upside last week, finally stalling at and retreating from around the 1.3730 price region towards the end of the week. The price level at which momentum stalled in its latest bullish run coincides approximately with a key downtrend resistance line extending from the second test of the 1.6 region last July. Does EUR/USD have the bullish momentum (and dollar bearishness) to continue up on its potential path towards 1.4 and possibly beyond, breaking significant resistance levels in the process? The pivotal upcoming week of March 23-27 should provide substantial direction for the pair going forward. Likely, a bearish correction, or dip, within the latest bull run should occur before price potentially continues further to the upside towards major resistance in the 1.3850 price region. In the event of this dip, strong support to the downside resides around the key 1.3300 price region.
James Chen, CTA, CMT
For more information on my newly-released book, Essentials of Foreign Exchange Trading (Wiley), please click here.

USD/JPY - Weekly Analysis for March 23-27, 2009
Posted on March 21, 2009 at 22:40 in Analysis by James ChenNo Comments »

USD/JPY (a daily chart of which is shown) fell precipitously last week to bounce up off a key uptrend support line extending from the second test of the 87.00 lows in January. This bounce can also be considered to have occurred right around both the 50% and 61.8% retracement levels of the latest bullish run. The pair dipped significantly below the key 94.50 price region, which effectively represents the point of demarcation between a potentially continuing uptrend and a failed uptrend, but then quickly recovered back up above 95.00 by the end of the week. The upcoming week of March 23-27 should provide strong direction for both the dollar and this embattled currency pair. To the downside, continued support should be provided by the 94.50 level, while any substantial breakout back up above 96.00 could once again target a re-test of the recent 99.65 high.
James Chen, CTA, CMT
For more information on my newly-released book, Essentials of Foreign Exchange Trading (Wiley), please click here.

Chart of the Day - 3/20/2009 – AUD/USD
Posted on March 20, 2009 at 16:22 in Analysis by James ChenNo Comments »

Like other dollar-based pairs in the past two days, price action on AUD/USD has experienced significant dollar-weakening. This move has manifested itself on AUD/USD as a tentative break of the sideways consolidation that has characterized this currency pair since mid-January. For more technical analysis on this currency pair, please click here for Friday’s (3/20/2009) Chart of the Day.

EUR/USD - Pause in Dramatic Bullish Run
Posted on March 20, 2009 at 13:29 in Analysis by James ChenNo Comments »

Remarkably bullish price action in the last two days on EUR/USD, a daily chart of which is shown, has extended its reach all the way up to a key downtrend resistance line extending from the second test of the 1.6 record high. Around this line, resistance has held and the bullish price run has stalled, as of Friday (3/20/2009) morning. A full-fledged retreat from this trendline should meet strong support once again around 1.3300. Any subsequent breakout above the current downtrend line should meet immediate resistance in the 1.3850 support/resistance region.

« Newer posts – Older posts »

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-4-7 19:50

Posted on March 18, 2009 at 13:57 in Analysis by James ChenNo Comments »

Price action on EUR/USD, a daily chart of which is shown, has tentatively climbed out of a double-bottom consolidation near the long-term lows (around 1.2500). By breaking out decisively above the key 1.3 region, price has confirmed a substantial bullish turn within the overall downtrend. This bullishness is now outlined by a steep and narrow uptrend channel. With continued bullish momentum, the next major resistance target to the upside resides around 1.3300. To the downside, the 1.3000 support/resistance region should now serve as support where it previously served as resistance before breakout.

Reminder: Monthly Webinar on FXstreet.com
Posted on March 17, 2009 at 19:11 in Announcements, Education by James ChenNo Comments »

Just another quick reminder. I will be conducting the live Monthly Webinar on FXstreet.com this month. This webinar will be held in a few days (on Thursday, March 19, 2009), and will consist of two parts.
The first part will be a free, open webinar entitled: “Trading Forex on a Daily Basis Using Daily Charts”. Please click here for more information and to pre-register: http://www.fxstreet.com/live/sessions/session.aspx?id=eef7f318-267e-4e34-80de-b91a5bb38ad2 .
The second part will be a premium webinar for FXstreet.com Premium members. It is entitled: “Using the Principles of Confluence to Trade Forex Effectively”. Please click here for more information and to pre-register: http://www.fxstreet.com/live/sessions/session.aspx?id=ad268ec6-f3b7-49bd-9414-9c3730495d22 .
These live sessions should prove to be very useful and informative for forex traders of all levels. I hope to see everyone there!
James Chen, CTA, CMT
For more information on my newly-released book, Essentials of Foreign Exchange Trading (Wiley), please click here.

Chart of the Day - 3/17/2009 – GBP/USD
Posted on March 17, 2009 at 17:29 in Analysis by James ChenNo Comments »

Price action on GBP/USD has continued its traverse along an important parallel downtrend channel that began in late October. Within the context of this channel, price has recently been adhering to the top border of the channel within a smaller downtrend channel of similar slope. For more technical analysis on this currency pair, please click here for Tuesday’s Chart of the Day.

USD/CAD - Sitting on Uptrend Support
Posted on March 17, 2009 at 14:01 in Analysis by James ChenNo Comments »

USD/CAD, a daily chart of which is shown, has descended from its quadruple test of the 1.3 price region to sit squarely on top of a key uptrend support line extending from the late September lows. The fact that price is stalling here lends significant additional validity to this particular trendline, which has been respected at least six times since its inception. Because of this validity, any significant breakdown of the line should represent substantial bearishness, potentially targeting further support around the downtrend line extending from the third 1.3 test in December, and then further down around the 1.2400 support/resistance region. Conversely, a pronounced bounce off the current uptrend line would have nowhere to go but up towards a potential re-test of 1.3.

GBP/USD - Bullish Retracement to Trendline
Posted on March 16, 2009 at 14:02 in Analysis by James ChenNo Comments »

GBP/USD, a daily chart of which is shown, has once again reverted back up to approach the resistance offered by a trendline that has been bisecting price action since around mid-2008. Currently acting as downtrend resistance, this trendline is now part of a parallel downtrend channel that has been in place since October. Because the long downtrend line is exceptionally valid, with many touches throughout its history, GBP/USD is currently at a critical juncture. Within the next day or two, if this line is respected with a clear turn at or near the dynamic resistance offered by the trendline, price could subsequently head back down towards major support in the 1.3500 region. Conversely, any exceptionally substantial breakout to the upside should eventually target major resistance around 1.5.

Forex Levels to Watch (Week of Mar 16-20, 2009)
Posted on March 15, 2009 at 14:30 in Analysis by James ChenNo Comments »

Here are some important forex support/resistance price levels to watch for (breaks/bounces) during the upcoming trading week of March 16-20, 2009:
EUR/USD - Support 1.2500 / Resistance 1.3000
USD/JPY - Support 95.65 / Resistance 99.65
GBP/USD - Support 1.3655 / Resistance 1.4350
USD/CHF - Support 1.1400/ Resistance 1.1965
- James Chen, CTA, CMT
For more information on my newly-released book, Essentials of Foreign Exchange Trading (Wiley), please click here.

EUR/USD - Weekly Analysis for March 16-20, 2009
Posted on March 14, 2009 at 19:07 in Analysis by James Chen4 Comments »

EUR/USD (a daily chart of which is shown) made some significant gains in the past week, breaking out above a parallel downtrend channel within the context of a general downtrend. The key level to watch for on this pair as we move into the upcoming week of March 16-20 is 1.3000. A further rise to this price region and beyond can still be considered corrective and easily within the bounds of a typical bear market retracement. But any substantial break above this level could be cause for some concern among the long-prevailing EUR/USD bears. If this occurs, the 1.3300 price region is a logical resistance target to the upside. Any turn/reversal at or near the key 1.3000 level, on the other hand, should be a significant bearish signal, and could subsequently target the major 1.2500 support level once again. A strong breakdown below 1.2500 would confirm a bearish trend continuation.
James Chen, CTA, CMT
For more information on my newly-released book, Essentials of Foreign Exchange Trading (Wiley), please click here.

USD/JPY - Weekly Analysis for March 16-20, 2009
Posted on March 14, 2009 at 19:04 in Analysis by James ChenNo Comments »

USD/JPY (a daily chart of which is shown) declined last week to just below 96.00, which represents the approximate level of a key 38.2% retracement level, before recovering some of its losses by the end of the week. Price action continues to be entrenched within a horizontal consolidation, and the upcoming week of March 16-20 should finally provide some directional guidance. To the upside, the obvious level to watch out for is 99.65, which, if broken significantly, would confirm an uptrend continuation. If this occurs, the 101.50 region should provide a further resistance target. To the downside, any re-break and close below the 96.00 level would place the current uptrend in some jeopardy, and could subsequently target further support around 94.60. And any substantial breakdown below that level could potentially invalidate the current confirmed uptrend.
James Chen, CTA, CMT
For more information on my newly-released book, Essentials of Foreign Exchange Trading (Wiley), please click here.

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hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-4-7 19:52

Posted on March 13, 2009 at 14:05 in Analysis by James ChenNo Comments »

Price action on USD/CAD has retreated substantially from the recent false break of 1.3 resistance. Now that price has come down, that false break may be considered the fourth leg of a quadruple test. Currently, as of Friday (3/13/2009) morning, price has descended to the point where it is approaching an uptrend support line extending from the September 2008 lows. This trendline represents a critical juncture for this pair. A bounce at or near the line could indicate a subsequent retest of the 1.3 upside target. A breakdown of the line could target further support in the 1.2400 price region.

USD/JPY - Rejected by Support
Posted on March 12, 2009 at 13:46 in Analysis by James ChenNo Comments »

Price action on USD/JPY as of Thursday (3/12/2009) morning has shown a substantial descent, and then a clear rejection by support just below the key 96.00 price region. This rejection hints at a potential waning of bearish momentum, and a possible subsequent resumption of the new uptrend. This potential uptrend resumption, of course, would not be confirmed without a breakout above the 99.65 region, which represents the last swing high. To the downside, if price goes on to re-break below 96.00, the 94.60 region, which represents the peak in the middle of the double bottom formation, should provide strong further support for the pair.

AUD/USD - Consolidating Above Uptrend Support
Posted on March 11, 2009 at 14:05 in Analysis by James Chen2 Comments »

AUD/USD, a daily chart of which is shown, continues to consolidate right on top of a key uptrend support line extending from the late October 5-year low (around 0.6000). This uptrend line is providing exceptionally strong support, as it has not yet been violated in the five tests it has experienced since its inception. Therefore, any subsequent breakdown of this line should carry enough bearish momentum to target major support around the 5-year, 0.6000 low. Currently, price is also on the verge of breaking out above a downtrend resistance line extending from the swing high at the beginning of the year. In the event of a significant break and close above this downtrend line, price could target key resistance in the 0.6800 price region.

Chart of the Day - 3/10/2009 - EUR/GBP
Posted on March 10, 2009 at 16:12 in Analysis by James Chen2 Comments »

In a significant burst of euro bullishness, EUR/GBP has broken out cleanly above both a large triangle pattern consolidation as well as a downtrend resistance line extending from the historical record high around 0.9800. For more technicals on this currency pair, please click here for Tuesday’s Chart of the Day.

EUR/USD - Retracement Up to Resistance
Posted on March 10, 2009 at 14:10 in Analysis by James Chen2 Comments »

Price action on EUR/USD, a daily chart of which is shown, has retraced all the way back up to the top of the parallel downtrend channel that it has been traversing since the beginning of the year. A momentum failure at or near this dynamic resistance level should prompt price to work its way back down towards the 1.2500 support region. In the event of a breakout above the channel, the 1.3000 level should serve as further resistance on this retracement.

Reminder: Live Monthly Webinar on FXstreet.com
Posted on March 10, 2009 at 13:48 in Announcements, Education by James ChenNo Comments »

Just a quick reminder. I will be conducting the Monthly Webinar on FXstreet.com this month. This webinar will be held next week (on Thursday, March 19, 2009), and will consist of two parts.
The first part will be a free, open webinar entitled: “Trading Forex on a Daily Basis Using Daily Charts”. Please click here for more information and to pre-register: http://www.fxstreet.com/live/sessions/session.aspx?id=eef7f318-267e-4e34-80de-b91a5bb38ad2 .
The second part will be a premium webinar for FXstreet.com Premium members. It is entitled: “Using the Principles of Confluence to Trade Forex Effectively”. Please click here for more information and to pre-register: http://www.fxstreet.com/live/sessions/session.aspx?id=ad268ec6-f3b7-49bd-9414-9c3730495d22 .
These live sessions should prove to be very useful and informative for all attendees. I hope to see everyone there!
James Chen, CTA, CMT
For more information on my newly-released book, Essentials of Foreign Exchange Trading (Wiley), please click here.

Chart of the Day - 3/09/2009 – USD/JPY
Posted on March 9, 2009 at 17:32 in Analysis by James ChenNo Comments »

After confirming a double-bottom reversal by breaking out above 94.60, USD/JPY came just around 30 pips shy of the key 100.00 mark last week before retreating. This retreat took price all the way back down to a steep uptrend support line that began in mid-February, before bouncing back up again. For more technicals on this currency pair, please click here for Monday’s (3/09/2009) Chart of the Day.

GBP/USD - Break of 1.4000, Continuing Downtrend Stroll
Posted on March 9, 2009 at 14:07 in Analysis by James Chen3 Comments »

GBP/USD as of Monday morning (3/9/2009) is continuing its downward stroll along the lines of a parallel downtrend channel that has been in place since late October 2008. This morning’s substantial breakdown below the key 1.4000 level highlights the continuing bearishness in this currency pair within the context of the downtrend channel. To the downside, the next major support level resides in the 1.3500 region, the level of January’s long-term low. To the upside, the broken 1.4000 level should now act as resistance where it previously served as support.

Forex Levels to Watch (Week of Mar 9-13, 2009)
Posted on March 8, 2009 at 3:52 in Analysis by James Chen2 Comments »

Here are some forex support/resistance price levels to watch for (breaks/bounces) during the upcoming trading week of March 9-13, 2009:
EUR/USD - Support 1.2500 / Resistance 1.3060
USD/JPY - Support 96.00 / Resistance 100.00
GBP/USD - Support 1.4000 / Resistance 1.4350
USD/CHF - Support 1.1400/ Resistance 1.1830
- James Chen, CTA, CMT
For more information on my newly-released book, Essentials of Foreign Exchange Trading (Wiley), please click here.

USD/CHF - Uptrend Channel Breakdown
Posted on March 6, 2009 at 17:03 in Analysis by James Chen2 Comments »

Friday’s bearishness on USD/CHF, a daily chart of which is shown, manifested itself in a tentative break below the bottom border of a parallel uptrend channel that has been in place since late January. For the technicals on this currency pair, please click here for Friday’s Chart of the Day.

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hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-4-7 19:52

Posted on March 6, 2009 at 15:04 in Analysis by James ChenNo Comments »

After coming just a few pips shy of quadruple-testing the 1.3000 4-year highs, price action on the USD/CAD daily chart, as shown, has retreated back down a bit and formed a potential bullish flag formation. While support currently resides around the uptrend support line extending from the September 2008 swing low, any substantial breakout above the flag consolidation pattern could also carry the bullish momentum to break above the key 1.3000 resistance. If this occurs, further resistance targets will be posted.

Presenting at Steve Nison’s Webinar
Posted on March 5, 2009 at 17:07 in Announcements, Education by James ChenNo Comments »

I know it’s short notice, but I will give a presentation tonight on forex trading basics at a webinar hosted by renowned candle charts expert, Steve Nison. It will be held tonight (3/05/2009) at 8:00 PM U.S. Eastern Time. I will cover all of the basics of trading the forex market. If you would like to attend, please click on the following link: http://candles.omnovia.com/registration/pid=87161236003073 . Hope to see you there!
James Chen, CTA, CMT
- And for more information on my newly-released book, Essentials of Foreign Exchange Trading (Wiley), please click here. -

EUR/USD - Still Sitting on Support
Posted on March 5, 2009 at 14:44 in Analysis by James ChenNo Comments »

Price action on EUR/USD, a daily chart of which is shown, continues to sit right on top of support around the 1.2500 price region. A convincing breakdown of this support has not yet occurred within the past several days. Price is also entrenched within a small parallel downtrend channel, as shown on the chart. The outlook for this pair continues to be overall bearish. An eventual breakdown of the 1.2500 and then 1.2330 levels should confirm this bearishness.

Live Monthly Webinar on FXstreet.com
Posted on March 5, 2009 at 14:24 in Announcements, Education by James ChenNo Comments »

Just a quick announcement. I will be conducting the Monthly Webinar on FXstreet.com this month. This webinar will be held on Thursday, March 19, 2009, and will consist of two parts.
The first part will be a free, open webinar entitled: “Trading Forex on a Daily Basis Using Daily Charts”. Please click here for more information and to pre-register: http://www.fxstreet.com/live/sessions/session.aspx?id=eef7f318-267e-4e34-80de-b91a5bb38ad2 .
The second part will be a premium webinar for FXstreet.com Premium members. It is entitled: “Using the Principles of Confluence to Trade Forex Effectively”. Please click here for more information and to pre-register: http://www.fxstreet.com/live/sessions/session.aspx?id=ad268ec6-f3b7-49bd-9414-9c3730495d22 .
These live sessions should prove to be very useful and informative for all attendees. I hope to see everyone there!
James Chen, CTA, CMT
P.S. For more information on my newly-released book, Essentials of Foreign Exchange Trading (Wiley), please click here.

EUR/JPY - Bullish Flag
Posted on March 4, 2009 at 17:13 in Analysis by James ChenNo Comments »

Price action on EUR/JPY has just formed a small pennant pattern that may hint at a bullish continuation if broken to the upside in a substantial manner. For the technicals on this currency pair, please click here for Wednesday’s Chart of the Day.

USD/CHF - Nearing Short-Term Bullish Exhaustion?
Posted on March 4, 2009 at 13:24 in Analysis by James Chen5 Comments »

As shown on the accompanying USD/CHF 4-hour chart, price has been entrenched in a gradual parallel uptrend channel since around late January. More recently, since late February, price has been rising steeply within this channel in a rising wedge formation. After hitting the top of the wedge, price has just turned down. Momentum oscillators are displaying a turn down from severely overbought. Could this signal a short-term exhaustion of the recent bullishness. A breakdown below the wedge would lend strength to this view. If this occurs, further clear support resides around the bottom of the parallel uptrend channel. Conversely, any break above the wedge should target resistance around the top of the channel.

EUR/USD - Sitting on Support
Posted on March 3, 2009 at 16:52 in Analysis by James Chen5 Comments »

As of Tuesday morning, price action on EUR/USD (a daily chart of which is shown) has fallen back down near the support established last week, just above the 1.2500 level. Still technically bearish, this key currency pair is teetering on breaking down below this 1.2500 level, which would confirm a downtrend continuation. For the technicals on this currency pair, please click here for Tuesday’s Chart of the Day.

USD/JPY - Potential Continuation Pennant
Posted on March 3, 2009 at 14:36 in Analysis by James Chen2 Comments »

Price action on USD/JPY, a daily chart of which is shown, has formed a small pennant pattern within the context of the latest bullish run. This pennant may be considered a minor price consolidation before a potential continuation of the new uptrend. In the event of any strong break above the top border of the pennant, price should target substantial further resistance around the key psychological 100.00 level.
UPDATE: As of early Wednesday morning, price action has indeed broken out above the continuation pennant, and appears poised to target the 100.00 region.

AUD/USD - Weighing Heavily on Support
Posted on March 2, 2009 at 18:08 in Analysis by James ChenNo Comments »

Price action on the AUD/USD daily chart has once again reached down to a key uptrend support line extending from the 5 ½ year low hit in October. This strong uptrend support line has had at least four touches since its inception, and price has currently just poked its head tentatively below the line as of Monday morning. For the technicals on this currency pair, please click here for Monday’s Chart of the Day.

Forex Levels to Watch (Week of Mar 2-6, 2009)
Posted on March 1, 2009 at 21:37 in Analysis by James ChenNo Comments »

Here are some key forex support/resistance price levels to watch (breaks/bounces) for the upcoming week of March 2-6, 2009:
EUR/USD - Support 1.2510 / Resistance 1.2990
USD/JPY - Support 96.00 / Resistance 98.70
GBP/USD - Support 1.4050 / Resistance 1.4660
USD/CHF - Support 1.1460/ Resistance 1.1885

« Newer posts – Older posts »

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-4-7 19:56

Posted on March 6, 2009 at 15:04 in Analysis by James ChenNo Comments »

After coming just a few pips shy of quadruple-testing the 1.3000 4-year highs, price action on the USD/CAD daily chart, as shown, has retreated back down a bit and formed a potential bullish flag formation. While support currently resides around the uptrend support line extending from the September 2008 swing low, any substantial breakout above the flag consolidation pattern could also carry the bullish momentum to break above the key 1.3000 resistance. If this occurs, further resistance targets will be posted.

Presenting at Steve Nison’s Webinar
Posted on March 5, 2009 at 17:07 in Announcements, Education by James ChenNo Comments »

I know it’s short notice, but I will give a presentation tonight on forex trading basics at a webinar hosted by renowned candle charts expert, Steve Nison. It will be held tonight (3/05/2009) at 8:00 PM U.S. Eastern Time. I will cover all of the basics of trading the forex market. If you would like to attend, please click on the following link: http://candles.omnovia.com/registration/pid=87161236003073 . Hope to see you there!
James Chen, CTA, CMT
- And for more information on my newly-released book, Essentials of Foreign Exchange Trading (Wiley), please click here. -

EUR/USD - Still Sitting on Support
Posted on March 5, 2009 at 14:44 in Analysis by James ChenNo Comments »

Price action on EUR/USD, a daily chart of which is shown, continues to sit right on top of support around the 1.2500 price region. A convincing breakdown of this support has not yet occurred within the past several days. Price is also entrenched within a small parallel downtrend channel, as shown on the chart. The outlook for this pair continues to be overall bearish. An eventual breakdown of the 1.2500 and then 1.2330 levels should confirm this bearishness.

Live Monthly Webinar on FXstreet.com
Posted on March 5, 2009 at 14:24 in Announcements, Education by James ChenNo Comments »

Just a quick announcement. I will be conducting the Monthly Webinar on FXstreet.com this month. This webinar will be held on Thursday, March 19, 2009, and will consist of two parts.
The first part will be a free, open webinar entitled: “Trading Forex on a Daily Basis Using Daily Charts”. Please click here for more information and to pre-register: http://www.fxstreet.com/live/sessions/session.aspx?id=eef7f318-267e-4e34-80de-b91a5bb38ad2 .
The second part will be a premium webinar for FXstreet.com Premium members. It is entitled: “Using the Principles of Confluence to Trade Forex Effectively”. Please click here for more information and to pre-register: http://www.fxstreet.com/live/sessions/session.aspx?id=ad268ec6-f3b7-49bd-9414-9c3730495d22 .
These live sessions should prove to be very useful and informative for all attendees. I hope to see everyone there!
James Chen, CTA, CMT
P.S. For more information on my newly-released book, Essentials of Foreign Exchange Trading (Wiley), please click here.

EUR/JPY - Bullish Flag
Posted on March 4, 2009 at 17:13 in Analysis by James ChenNo Comments »

Price action on EUR/JPY has just formed a small pennant pattern that may hint at a bullish continuation if broken to the upside in a substantial manner. For the technicals on this currency pair, please click here for Wednesday’s Chart of the Day.

USD/CHF - Nearing Short-Term Bullish Exhaustion?
Posted on March 4, 2009 at 13:24 in Analysis by James Chen5 Comments »

As shown on the accompanying USD/CHF 4-hour chart, price has been entrenched in a gradual parallel uptrend channel since around late January. More recently, since late February, price has been rising steeply within this channel in a rising wedge formation. After hitting the top of the wedge, price has just turned down. Momentum oscillators are displaying a turn down from severely overbought. Could this signal a short-term exhaustion of the recent bullishness. A breakdown below the wedge would lend strength to this view. If this occurs, further clear support resides around the bottom of the parallel uptrend channel. Conversely, any break above the wedge should target resistance around the top of the channel.

EUR/USD - Sitting on Support
Posted on March 3, 2009 at 16:52 in Analysis by James Chen5 Comments »

As of Tuesday morning, price action on EUR/USD (a daily chart of which is shown) has fallen back down near the support established last week, just above the 1.2500 level. Still technically bearish, this key currency pair is teetering on breaking down below this 1.2500 level, which would confirm a downtrend continuation. For the technicals on this currency pair, please click here for Tuesday’s Chart of the Day.

USD/JPY - Potential Continuation Pennant
Posted on March 3, 2009 at 14:36 in Analysis by James Chen2 Comments »

Price action on USD/JPY, a daily chart of which is shown, has formed a small pennant pattern within the context of the latest bullish run. This pennant may be considered a minor price consolidation before a potential continuation of the new uptrend. In the event of any strong break above the top border of the pennant, price should target substantial further resistance around the key psychological 100.00 level.
UPDATE: As of early Wednesday morning, price action has indeed broken out above the continuation pennant, and appears poised to target the 100.00 region.

AUD/USD - Weighing Heavily on Support
Posted on March 2, 2009 at 18:08 in Analysis by James ChenNo Comments »

Price action on the AUD/USD daily chart has once again reached down to a key uptrend support line extending from the 5 ½ year low hit in October. This strong uptrend support line has had at least four touches since its inception, and price has currently just poked its head tentatively below the line as of Monday morning. For the technicals on this currency pair, please click here for Monday’s Chart of the Day.

Forex Levels to Watch (Week of Mar 2-6, 2009)
Posted on March 1, 2009 at 21:37 in Analysis by James ChenNo Comments »

Here are some key forex support/resistance price levels to watch (breaks/bounces) for the upcoming week of March 2-6, 2009:
EUR/USD - Support 1.2510 / Resistance 1.2990
USD/JPY - Support 96.00 / Resistance 98.70
GBP/USD - Support 1.4050 / Resistance 1.4660
USD/CHF - Support 1.1460/ Resistance 1.1885

« Newer posts – Older posts »

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-4-7 19:56

Posted on March 6, 2009 at 15:04 in Analysis by James ChenNo Comments »

After coming just a few pips shy of quadruple-testing the 1.3000 4-year highs, price action on the USD/CAD daily chart, as shown, has retreated back down a bit and formed a potential bullish flag formation. While support currently resides around the uptrend support line extending from the September 2008 swing low, any substantial breakout above the flag consolidation pattern could also carry the bullish momentum to break above the key 1.3000 resistance. If this occurs, further resistance targets will be posted.

Presenting at Steve Nison’s Webinar
EUR/USD - Still Sitting on Support

Posted on March 5, 2009 at 14:44 in Analysis by James ChenNo Comments »

Price action on EUR/USD, a daily chart of which is shown, continues to sit right on top of support around the 1.2500 price region. A convincing breakdown of this support has not yet occurred within the past several days. Price is also entrenched within a small parallel downtrend channel, as shown on the chart. The outlook for this pair continues to be overall bearish. An eventual breakdown of the 1.2500 and then 1.2330 levels should confirm this bearishness.

Live Monthly Webinar on FXstreet.com

Posted on March 4, 2009 at 13:24 in Analysis by James Chen5 Comments »

As shown on the accompanying USD/CHF 4-hour chart, price has been entrenched in a gradual parallel uptrend channel since around late January. More recently, since late February, price has been rising steeply within this channel in a rising wedge formation. After hitting the top of the wedge, price has just turned down. Momentum oscillators are displaying a turn down from severely overbought. Could this signal a short-term exhaustion of the recent bullishness. A breakdown below the wedge would lend strength to this view. If this occurs, further clear support resides around the bottom of the parallel uptrend channel. Conversely, any break above the wedge should target resistance around the top of the channel.

EUR/USD - Sitting on Support
Posted on March 3, 2009 at 16:52 in Analysis by James Chen5 Comments »

As of Tuesday morning, price action on EUR/USD (a daily chart of which is shown) has fallen back down near the support established last week, just above the 1.2500 level. Still technically bearish, this key currency pair is teetering on breaking down below this 1.2500 level, which would confirm a downtrend continuation. For the technicals on this currency pair, please click here for Tuesday’s Chart of the Day.

USD/JPY - Potential Continuation Pennant
Posted on March 3, 2009 at 14:36 in Analysis by James Chen2 Comments »

Price action on USD/JPY, a daily chart of which is shown, has formed a small pennant pattern within the context of the latest bullish run. This pennant may be considered a minor price consolidation before a potential continuation of the new uptrend. In the event of any strong break above the top border of the pennant, price should target substantial further resistance around the key psychological 100.00 level.
UPDATE: As of early Wednesday morning, price action has indeed broken out above the continuation pennant, and appears poised to target the 100.00 region.

AUD/USD - Weighing Heavily on Support
Posted on March 2, 2009 at 18:08 in Analysis by James ChenNo Comments »

Price action on the AUD/USD daily chart has once again reached down to a key uptrend support line extending from the 5 ½ year low hit in October. This strong uptrend support line has had at least four touches since its inception, and price has currently just poked its head tentatively below the line as of Monday morning. For the technicals on this currency pair, please click here for Monday’s Chart of the Day.

Forex Levels to Watch (Week of Mar 2-6, 2009)
Posted on March 1, 2009 at 21:37 in Analysis by James ChenNo Comments »

Here are some key forex support/resistance price levels to watch (breaks/bounces) for the upcoming week of March 2-6, 2009:
EUR/USD - Support 1.2510 / Resistance 1.2990
USD/JPY - Support 96.00 / Resistance 98.70
GBP/USD - Support 1.4050 / Resistance 1.4660
USD/CHF - Support 1.1460/ Resistance 1.1885

« Newer posts – Older posts »

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-4-7 19:57

Posted on February 26, 2009 at 14:52 in Analysis by James ChenNo Comments »

The big news of the past several days, of course, has been the substantial weakening of the yen. Perhaps nowhere is this more evident than on the USD/JPY, a daily chart of which is shown. The pair has reached and stalled, as of Thursday morning, around the key 98.00 support/resistance level. A double bottom reversal has already been confirmed. With continued bullish momentum, the major 100.00 price region is within target. Support to the downside continues to reside in the 94.50 region.

EUR/GBP - Riding Support
Posted on February 25, 2009 at 16:56 in Analysis by James Chen1 Comment »

Though it can technically be considered in a medium-term downtrend since the beginning of the year, EUR/GBP has continued to respect an uptrend support line extending from the late October low just below 0.7700. Therefore, the pair is currently still entrenched in a longer-term uptrend until any substantial breakdown of this trendline occurs. For the technicals on this key cross, please click here for Wednesday’s Chart of the Day.

USD/CAD - Adhering to Uptrend Support
Posted on February 25, 2009 at 14:57 in Analysis by James Chen4 Comments »

Consolidating price action on USD/CAD, a daily chart of which is shown, has been adhering closely to a key uptrend support line extending from the swing low in late September. Moderately bearish within the last week or so, this pair has stalled at uptrend support, but may go on eventually to make a bonafide breakdown of this line. In this event, strong support to the downside resides in the 1.2100 price region, a major prior support/resistance level. To the upside, a true breakout of the downtrend resistance line (currently in the 1.2600 area) should meet further resistance in the 1.2750 region, another important prior support/resistance level.

USD/JPY - Marked Bullishness Cracks Resistance
Posted on February 24, 2009 at 14:47 in Analysis by James ChenNo Comments »

Marked bullishness on USD/JPY, a daily chart of which is shown, has broken cleanly above the previously noted 94.50 resistance region, and has gone on to take out further resistance levels well above. This includes a key downtrend resistance line extending from the August 2008 highs. Tentative confirmation of a bullish double-bottom reversal is currently in the making, as price has exceeded the peak between the two extreme lows around 87.00. With any further bullish momentum that takes out the 98.00 level, price could target further resistance in the major 100.00 price region.

Forex Levels to Watch (Week of Feb 23-27, 2009)
Posted on February 22, 2009 at 19:46 in Analysis by James Chen2 Comments »

Here are some key forex support/resistance price levels to watch (breaks/bounces) for the upcoming week of February 23-27, 2009:
EUR/USD - Support 1.2512 / Resistance 1.3091
USD/JPY - Support 91.00 / Resistance 94.50
GBP/USD - Support 1.4050 / Resistance 1.4982
USD/CHF - Support 1.1400/ Resistance 1.1883

EUR/GBP - Fallen Back to Support
Posted on February 20, 2009 at 14:38 in Analysis by James ChenNo Comments »

Price action on the displayed EUR/GBP daily chart has reverted once again back to the dynamic support offered by a key uptrend support line extending from the late October low just below 0.7700. After hitting a peak of 0.9800 in late December, price has fallen in a series of bearish waves with substantial bullish retracements, through support level after support level. At the current juncture, if the uptrend support holds and price bounces, the 0.9070 region should serve as significant upside resistance. Any breakdown below the current uptrend line should meet immediate further support in the 0.8650 price region.

USD/JPY - Up Against Resistance
Posted on February 19, 2009 at 18:14 in Analysis by James ChenNo Comments »

Price action on USD/JPY has risen substantially up to key resistance in the 94.50 region. For the technicals on this currency pair, please click here for Thursday’s Chart of the Day.

EUR/USD - Pullback to the Line
Posted on February 19, 2009 at 15:04 in Analysis by James ChenNo Comments »

After breaking down cleanly below the uptrend support line extending from the long-term low hit in late October, price action on EUR/USD, a daily chart of which is shown, has pulled back up to the line, which should now act as some resistance for the pair. To the downside, any subsequent breakdown below the 1.2500 region should confirm a continuation of the downtrend.

« Newer posts – Older posts »

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-4-7 19:58

Posted on February 19, 2009 at 14:49 in Analysis by James ChenNo Comments »

As of Thursday morning, price on the AUD/USD daily chart, as shown, has made a precise and pronounced bounce up off the uptrend support line extending from the 5-year lows. This indicates that the pair is still entrenched in a prolonged trading range. It also indicates that the uptrend support line is a rather strong and valid one. Continued bullish momentum on this bounce should meet key resistance in the 0.6800 region.

Reminder: International Traders Expo, New York
Posted on February 18, 2009 at 19:40 in Announcements, Education by James ChenNo Comments »

Just a quick reminder - I will be speaking at the International Traders Expo in New York City next week on Monday, February 23rd, at 10:45 am (U.S. Eastern Time). The topic will be: High Probability Breakout Trading in the Forex Market . For more information on this event, please click on the following link: http://www.moneyshow.com/nyot/wBios.asp?id=840733A . If you’re in New York during that time, I hope to see you there!
James Chen, CMT

AUD/USD - 4th Touch of Support
Posted on February 18, 2009 at 14:42 in Analysis by James Chen2 Comments »

Price on AUD/USD, a daily chart of which is shown, has just made a fourth touch of an uptrend support line extending from the 5-year lows (just above 0.6000) hit in late October. This latest tentative bounce lends even more validity to this particular trendline. Therefore, any subsequent breakdown of this line (currently in the 0.6300 price region) should carry strong bearish momentum, and could potentially target further support around the mentioned 0.6000 lows. Conversely, any substantial continuation of the current bounce should meet strong resistance to the upside around the significant 0.6800 region, which represents the top border of the current trading range consolidation.

EUR/USD - Pronounced Support Breakdown
Posted on February 17, 2009 at 13:02 in Analysis by James Chen8 Comments »

Price action on EUR/USD has finally made enough of a bearish move to break cleanly below the strong uptrend support line that it had adhered to since the long-term low (around 1.2330) was hit in late October. Since that low was reached, this line has supported price at least six times. As of Tuesday morning, as shown on the accompanying EUR/USD daily chart, price has made a pronounced breakdown, and is currently approaching further support around the previously noted 1.2550 region. Any subsequent breakdown below this support level could target long-term support around the 1.2330 region, the level of October’s 2+ year low.

Manual vs. Automated Trailing Stops in Forex Trading
Posted on February 16, 2009 at 15:25 in Education by James Chen2 Comments »

The markets are somewhat quiet today, so I thought I would give my perspective on trailing stops, specifically the difference between manual and automated trailing stops. I touch on this subject relatively often in my talks and webinars, so I wanted to give my thoughts on this important topic.
To implement an automated trailing stop, one would simply set-up that function on one’s forex trading platform, choosing the amount of pips by which the trailing stop will follow market price if the trade goes in the trader’s favor. To perform a manual trailing stop, on the other hand, one would actually move the trailing stop manually to lock-in profits as price goes in one’s favor.
I much prefer manual trailing stops. For one, automated trailing stops have the potential to be extremely arbitrary, especially when choosing the number of pips to trail the market by. With manual trailing stops, on the other hand, one can move the stop loss according to how the market moves with respect to support and resistance levels. Using manual trailing stops, a trader sets his/her risk management according to actual market price action (in the form of support/resistance), and not according to an arbitrarily-chosen number of pips.
Of course, if one does not possess the proper time or discipline to move one’s stop loss manually, then automated trailing stops do serve their purpose. But if at all practical, manual trailing stops are preferred, as they allow traders to let the market dictate a sound risk management strategy.
James Chen, CMT

Webinar Reminder: Forex Trend Trading
Posted on February 15, 2009 at 3:24 in Announcements, Education by James ChenNo Comments »

Just a quick reminder - I will be giving an open FX Street webinar entitled “Forex Trend Trading” on Tuesday, February 17, 2009 at 17:00 GMT (12:00 Noon U.S. Eastern Time).
This free webinar will demonstrate the intricacies of trend trading in the forex market. Discover the highest-probability methods and strategies for identifying, trading, and capitalizing on the strongly trending nature of Forex markets.
This will be a very useful and informative session for traders of all levels. For more details and to pre-register, please click on the following link: http://www.fxstreet.com/live/sessions/session.aspx?id=ee76d043-f9b3-416c-a159-eea56caad17d .
Thank you!
James Chen, CMT

Forex Levels to Watch (Week of Feb 16-20, 2009)
Posted on February 15, 2009 at 3:07 in Analysis by James ChenNo Comments »

Here are some key forex support/resistance price levels to watch (breaks/bounces) for the upcoming week of February 16-20, 2009:
EUR/USD - Support 1.2705 / Resistance 1.3328
USD/JPY - Support 91.00 / Resistance 92.40
GBP/USD - Support 1.4050 / Resistance 1.4982
USD/CHF - Support 1.1500 / Resistance 1.1780

AUD/USD - Consolidation Near Lows
Posted on February 13, 2009 at 14:02 in Analysis by James ChenNo Comments »

Price action on the AUD/USD daily chart, as shown, has been consolidating near the pair’s 5-year low (around 0.6000), which was hit in late October. Extending from that low, a gradual uptrend support line has formed that price has been adhering to. Currently, price is oscillating between this trendline and strong resistance in the 0.6800 region. Any significant breakdown below the uptrend line could target major support around the noted 5-year low 0.6000 region. Any approach and subsequent breakout of the 0.6800 resistance, conversely, should target further key resistance to the upside in the 0.7250 region.

USD/CHF - Wedge Consolidation
Posted on February 12, 2009 at 17:35 in Analysis by James Chen2 Comments »

Price action on USD/CHF has been consolidating in a rising wedge formation for the past several weeks. Currently around the vertical middle of this wedge, the pair has recently been wavering in indecision. This consolidation can be seen as a lull before an inevitable directional push. For the technicals on this currency pair, please click here for Thursday’s Chart of the Day.

EUR/USD - Sixth Touch of Support
Posted on February 12, 2009 at 14:50 in Analysis by James Chen6 Comments »

As of Thursday morning (2/12/2009), price action on EUR/USD has made what amounts to the sixth solid touch of uptrend line support. This uptrend line extends from the low of 1.2330 reached in late October. The price level at which this trendline currently resides, as mentioned in yesterday’s Chart of the Day (click here to view), is in the 1.2750 region. Watch for any strong break and close below this area for further possible bearishness, potentially targeting support in the 1.2550 region.

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hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-4-7 19:58

Posted on February 11, 2009 at 16:49 in Analysis by James Chen2 Comments »

I wasn’t able to post the Chart of the Day through the regular channels today, so here it is in its entirety:
(Chart courtesy of FX Solutions’ FX AccuCharts. Price on 1st pane, Slow Stochastics on 2nd pane; horizontal support/resistance levels in yellow; downtrend lines in red; uptrend lines in green; chart patterns in white; 50-period simple moving average in light blue.)
2/11/2009 – EUR/USD – Price action on EUR/USD (a daily chart of which is shown) has formed a small inverted flag consolidation that hints at a potential bearish trend continuation on breakdown. This flag pattern coincides with a key uptrend support line extending from the recent two-year lows around 1.2330 hit in late October. With this confluence of strong support (flag formation and key uptrend line), any significant breakdown below this support should carry additional significance, with the potential bearish momentum to target the long-term lows. Currently, the breakdown price level to watch for (both the flag and the uptrend support line) is in the 1.2750 region. Any strong violation of this level, which would break the current consolidation, could target further support in the 1.2550 region, the level of the last major low. To the upside, the top border of the flag should continue to serve as near-term resistance for the consolidation, with the key 1.3300 level acting as major resistance to the upside.
James Chen, CMT
Chief Technical Strategist
FX Solutions
IMPORTANT NOTICE: These comments are for information purposes only. The information contained on this document does not constitute a solicitation to buy or sell by FX Solutions, LLC., and/or its affiliates, and is not to be available to individuals in a jurisdiction where such availability would be contrary to local regulation or law. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Forex trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.

USD/CAD - Struggling Bulls
Posted on February 11, 2009 at 14:58 in Analysis by James ChenNo Comments »

The past couple of days on the USD/CAD daily chart has seen price action bouncing up off a key uptrend support line as well as a horizontal support/resistance level in the 1.2100 region. To the upside, major dynamic resistance resides around the downtrend resistance trendline that extends from the third test of the four-year high around 1.3000. Any strong breakout above this trendline could see price target that long-term high once again. To the downside, the noted uptrend support line should continue to serve as significant support for the pair in the near-term.

Webinar: Forex Trend Trading
Posted on February 10, 2009 at 18:51 in Announcements, Education by James ChenNo Comments »

I will be giving an open FX Street webinar entitled “Forex Trend Trading” on Tuesday, February 17, 2009 at 17:00 GMT (12:00 Noon U.S. Eastern Time).
This free webinar will demonstrate the intricacies of trend trading in the forex market. Discover the highest-probability methods and strategies for identifying, trading, and capitalizing on the strongly trending nature of Forex markets.
This will be a very useful and informative session for traders of all levels. For more details and to pre-register, please click on the following link: http://www.fxstreet.com/live/sessions/session.aspx?id=ee76d043-f9b3-416c-a159-eea56caad17d .
Thank you!
James Chen, CMT

EUR/GBP - At Substantial Support
Posted on February 10, 2009 at 14:56 in Analysis by James Chen2 Comments »

Price action on the EUR/GBP cross has fallen substantially since the record high at 0.9800 was triple-tested in late December. Since then, the downtrend that has formed has been breaking down below support level after support level in a significant bearish correction. Currently, price has reached and respected a key support level around 0.8660 that stems from a prior horizontal support resistance level, as well as an uptrend support line extending from the 0.7700 low hit in October. Any strong breakdown below this uptrend support line should target further support around 0.8350. Conversely, a significant break above the 0.8850 support/resistance zone should constitute a support bounce that targets further resistance in the 0.9100 region.

EUR/USD - Retracement/Consolidation
Posted on February 9, 2009 at 18:42 in Analysis by James ChenNo Comments »

EUR/USD has made a pronounced bounce up off a key uptrend support line extending from the lows (around 1.2330) hit in late October. This constitutes at least the fifth precise bounce off this line, which makes it an exceptionally valid dynamic support level. For the technicals on this currency pair, please click here for Monday’s Chart of the Day.

Forex Levels to Watch (Week of Feb 9-13, 2009)
Posted on February 9, 2009 at 2:55 in Analysis by James ChenNo Comments »

Here are some key forex support/resistance price levels to watch (breaks/bounces) for the upcoming week of February 9-13, 2009:
EUR/USD - Support 1.2705 / Resistance 1.3328
USD/JPY - Support 91.00 / Resistance 94.62
GBP/USD - Support 1.4500 / Resistance 1.5372
USD/CHF - Support 1.1400 / Resistance 1.1800

GBP/USD - Bumped Up Against Resistance
Posted on February 6, 2009 at 17:55 in Analysis by James ChenNo Comments »

Bullish retracement price action on GBP/USD (a daily chart of which is shown) has just bumped up against a significant downtrend resistance line extending from the swing high at the end of October. Any substantial subsequent breakout above this line should meet immediate resistance around 1.5000, and then in the 1.5350 region on further bullishness. Immediate support resides at the short-term uptrend support line that defines the bullish retracement of the last two weeks. This dynamic support is currently in the 1.4500 region.

USD/JPY - Breaking Out Above Consolidation
Posted on February 6, 2009 at 16:38 in Analysis by James ChenNo Comments »

Bullish price action on USD/JPY has just broken cleanly out of a prolonged triangle consolidation near the double-tested 13-year lows. This triangle breakout has also gone on to break a key support/resistance level in the 91.00 region. For the technicals on this currency pair, please click here for Thursday’s Chart of the Day.

My New Forbes.com Article on Dollar Strength
Posted on February 6, 2009 at 2:32 in Analysis, Announcements, Education by James ChenNo Comments »

Following is a link to my new Forbes.com article on dollar strength that just came out on Thursday, Feb 5, 2009: http://www.forbes.com/2009/02/05/dollar-euro-currency-personal-finance-investing-ideas_0205_dollar_strength.html . I hope you enjoy it!
James Chen

AUD/USD - Supported Near Lows
Posted on February 5, 2009 at 19:02 in Analysis by James Chen2 Comments »

AUD/USD is right above a critical confluence of support, and appears to be respecting that support in the midst of its general downtrend. For the technicals on this currency pair, please click here for Thursday’s Chart of the Day.

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hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-4-7 19:59

Posted on February 5, 2009 at 14:41 in Analysis by James ChenNo Comments »

USD/CHF, a daily chart of which is shown, has formed a well-defined triangle/pennant formation with somewhat of a bullish bias. Only a significant break of this triangle to the upside, however, would confirm this potential bullishness. If this break occurs, a reasonable resistance target resides around the 1.1800-1.1830 region. Support remains around the bottom border of the triangle.

GBP/USD - Bullish Retracement within Downtrend
Posted on February 4, 2009 at 17:13 in Analysis by James Chen4 Comments »

GBP/USD is currently in the midst of a bullish retracement within the context of a general downtrend. For the technicals on this currency pair, please click here for Wednesday’s Chart of the Day.

AUD/USD - Key Support Bounce
Posted on February 4, 2009 at 15:00 in Analysis by James ChenNo Comments »

Price action on the AUD/USD daily chart, as shown, has just bounced up off an uptrend support line extending from the 5-year low hit in late October. Any bullish continuation off this potential retracement bounce should target resistance around the major 0.6800 support/resistance region. To the downside, if there is a subsequent breakdown of the uptrend support line, price should meet substantial further support right around 0.6000, the level of October’s 5-year low and also a key psychological level.

Speaking at the International Traders Expo, New York
Posted on February 3, 2009 at 19:50 in Announcements by James ChenNo Comments »

Just a quick announcement - I will be speaking at the International Traders Expo in New York City on Monday, February 23rd, at 10:45 am to 11:15 am (U.S. Eastern Time). The topic will be forex breakout trading strategies. For more information on this event, please click on the following link: http://www.moneyshow.com/nyot/wBios.asp?id=840733A . If you’re in New York during that time, I hope to see you there!
James Chen

EUR/USD - In a Downtrend Channel above Uptrend Support
Posted on February 3, 2009 at 14:36 in Analysis by James Chen2 Comments »

EUR/USD has been traversing a steep parallel downtrend channel since the dramatic swing high right before the New Year, as shown on the accompanying daily chart. Within the context of this channel, as of Tuesday morning price has just bounced up off a key uptrend support line extending from the long-term lows around 1.2330 (hit in late October). In the process, price has retraced to the top border of the steep downtrend channel. Any substantial break above this channel border could target further resistance in the key 1.3300 region. Conversely, any subsequent drop below the strong uptrend support line should target further major support in the 1.2550 region.

EUR/GBP - Bounce off Support Test
Posted on February 2, 2009 at 14:46 in Analysis by James ChenNo Comments »

Price on the key EUR/GBP cross (a daily chart of which is displayed) has just bounced cleanly off a major support region just above 0.8800. This occurs after price broke below an important uptrend support line late last week. From a technical perspective, there is currently somewhat of a bullish directional bias on this pair. With continued upward momentum off the current support bounce, price could potentially break above the 0.9125 resistance level, after which the most significant resistance target to the upside resides just above the 0.9500 region. This is the area where price last reached at the height of its most recent swing high.

Forex Levels to Watch (Week of Feb 2-6, 2009)
Posted on February 1, 2009 at 2:54 in Analysis by James Chen7 Comments »

Here are some major forex support/resistance price levels to watch (breaks/bounces) for the upcoming week of February 2-6, 2009:
EUR/USD - Support 1.2763 / Resistance 1.3328
USD/JPY - Support 87.10 / Resistance 91.00
GBP/USD - Support 1.4200 / Resistance 1.4900
USD/CHF - Support 1.1312 / Resistance 1.1714

EUR/USD - Sitting on Substantial Support
Posted on January 30, 2009 at 16:57 in Analysis by James Chen2 Comments »

EUR/USD has descended within the past couple of days to hit a key uptrend support line. For the current technicals on this pair, please click here for Friday’s Chart of the Day.

USD/CAD - Potential Continuation Towards Highs
Posted on January 30, 2009 at 14:40 in Analysis by James ChenNo Comments »

Price action on the USD/CAD (a daily chart of which is shown) has just bounced up off a key uptrend support line, as well as a horizontal support/resistance level in the 1.2100 region. The pair’s most recent bullish move failed to reach all the way up to the triple-tested highs around 1.3000, stopping short at 1.2765. Therefore, in the event of continued bullishness off the recent uptrend line bounce, the region surrounding 1.2765 should pose strong resistance to any further upside move towards the triple-tested highs. To the downside, the static 1.2100 region and the dynamic uptrend support line should continue to serve as strong support factors going forward. From a technical perspective, the bias currently appears somewhat bullish, though we should soon be seeing a sideways consolidation forming.

GBP/USD - Clear Bounce Off Extreme Lows
Posted on January 28, 2009 at 14:42 in Analysis by James Chen4 Comments »

GBP/USD (a daily chart of which is shown) has made a clear 3-bar bounce off the recent 23-year low of 1.3500, as of Wednesday morning. In the process, price has broken back up above the bottom border of the wedge formation that it broke below just last week. Price action has now reached the level of the last significant swing low in the pair before the 23-year extreme low was hit. Are we now seeing a major bottom occurring in the pair? Momentum still appears to be to the upside, and any continued bullishness that breaks above the 1.4400 region should provide more strength to the bottoming outlook. If a break above this level occurs, price could eventually target the 1.5300 region to the upside. And any substantial move above this further resistance level should provide stronger confidence that a reversal could indeed have begun. Of course, major support to the downside continues to reside in the 1.3500 extreme low region.

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hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-4-7 20:00

Posted on January 27, 2009 at 14:20 in Analysis by James ChenNo Comments »

After tentatively breaking above short-term downtrend resistance, price action as of early Tuesday morning rose up to hit and slightly exceed significant further resistance in the 1.3300 region before essentially being rejected by that price level. Momentum still appears, however, to be biased somewhat towards the upside. Any subsequent strong break and close above this 1.3300 level could eventually work its way up towards the 1.3750-1.3850 resistance zone. In the event of an extension of the 1.3300 price rejection, key support below the current price action resides around the 1.3050 region.

USD/JPY - Consolidating Near Long-Term Lows
Posted on January 26, 2009 at 13:01 in Analysis by James Chen4 Comments »

Price action on USD/JPY, a daily chart of which is shown, has tentatively retreated from the 13-year low that was precisely double-tested just last week. In the process, the pair has reverted back up to a short-term downtrend resistance line that extends from the 94.62 swing high reached in the beginning of the year. Price is currently still considered to be consolidating near the long-term lows, but if this downtrend resistance is broken to the upside, the 91.00 level should serve as strong resistance to the upside. A break above that should meet even stronger resistance in the mentioned 94.62 region. And any strong break above this 94.62 level could confirm a potential double-bottom reversal. To the downside, of course, is the ever-present 87.00 extreme support region, a substantial breakdown of which could presage a major downward move.

Forex Levels to Watch (Week of Jan 26-30, 2009)
Posted on January 24, 2009 at 19:26 in Analysis by James Chen2 Comments »

Happy Chinese New Year! The Year of the Ox officially begins on Monday, January 26th. What do we have to look forward to in the forex market for the beginning of this Chinese New Year? Here are some major forex price levels to watch for the upcoming week of Jan 26-30, 2009:
EUR/USD - 1.2700 / 1.3300
USD/JPY - 87.10 / 91.00
GBP/USD - 1.3502 / 1.4200
USD/CHF - 1.1480 / 1.1800

EUR/USD - On the Verge of Breaking Support
Posted on January 23, 2009 at 16:53 in Analysis by James ChenNo Comments »

The EUR/USD has just reached a key dynamic support level as of Friday morning. For the current technicals on this pair, please click here for Friday’s Chart of the Day.

GBP/USD - Fresh 23-Year Low
Posted on January 23, 2009 at 14:40 in Analysis by James ChenNo Comments »

Price action on the GBP/USD has descended to hit a new 23-year low as of Friday morning. The fact that these depths (around 1.3500) last occurred in 1985 makes the current price action virtually unprecedented. At this point, we should be seeing some consolidation above the 1.3500 low with upside resistance around the bottom border of the wedge, which is currently in the 1.4200 region. Of course, the major event to watch for would be any subsequent break below 1.3500, which could carry enough bearish momentum to extend the decline down to a potential support target in the 1.3300 region.

USD/CAD - Targeting Triple-Tested High
Posted on January 22, 2009 at 18:24 in Analysis by James ChenNo Comments »

Yet again, price action on USD/CAD appears to be targeting the 4-year high in the pair (around 1.3000) that has already been triple-tested within the last several months. At the current juncture, price is traveling up a steep uptrend support line, with the key 1.3000 extreme in its sights. If price loses its bullish momentum, as technical oscillators are suggesting, and breaks down below this steep uptrend line, price should eventually find major support in the 1.2100-1.2150 zone.

USD/JPY - Re-Approaching Historical Depths
Posted on January 22, 2009 at 14:58 in Analysis by James ChenNo Comments »

Wednesday’s price action on USD/JPY (a daily chart of which is shown) descended all the way down almost precisely to the 13+ year low in the pair that was just established in mid-December. After hitting this support low (just above 87.00), price was rejected and rose back up substantially. Price action as of Thursday morning has shown the pair displaying much of the same bearishness that occurred on Wednesday. Whether or not the pair is able to break below the 87.00 support is the big question of the week. This is definitely the price level to watch as we end this week and look forward to next week. A break below this extreme support level would have nothing in the way of recent precedent, so further support to the downside is difficult to determine on a concrete basis. A pronounced bounce up off the 87.00 support, though, should meet substantial resistance in the 91.00 region.

EUR/GBP - Bullish Continuation Targeting Record Highs
Posted on January 21, 2009 at 18:03 in Analysis by James Chen2 Comments »

EUR/GBP has recently bounced decisively up off an important uptrend support line, thereby continuing the upward momentum that has been place for several months now. Could this pair be re-targeting the recently established record highs? For the technicals on this key cross, please click here for Wednesday’s Chart of the Day.

EUR/USD - Stalled Near Support but Still Bearish
Posted on January 21, 2009 at 14:50 in Analysis by James ChenNo Comments »

EUR/USD price action has descended to approach support in the 1.2800 region, but has stalled above this support as of Tuesday morning. This level was noted both on Monday’s Chart of the Day and right here on this blog. Any strong subsequent breakdown below this 1.2800 support could target further key support in the 1.2550 region, potentially on its way towards extreme support around the 1.2330 long-term lows.

USD/CHF - Dollar Pummeling European Currencies
Posted on January 20, 2009 at 16:36 in Analysis by James ChenNo Comments »

Like the euro and pound, the Swiss franc has been battered mercilessly by the U.S. dollar on Monday and Tuesday. For the technicals on the key USD/CHF currency pair, please click here for Tuesday’s Chart of the Day.

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hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-4-7 20:01

Posted on January 20, 2009 at 15:03 in Analysis by James Chen2 Comments »

Price action on GBP/USD as of Tuesday morning has hit a new 7+ year low after breaking down below the bottom border support of a prolonged wedge consolidation. Where this pair was previously giving signs of forming a tentative base, the dollar bulls have been relentless and overpowering against the European currencies this week thus far. At this juncture, the pair has reached and is stalled around very long-term support in the 1.3900 region. Any continued bearish momentum that breaks down and closes significantly below this level could target further support around the 1.3680 level, the low extreme reached over 7 years ago.

Webinar - Disciplined Position Trading
Posted on January 19, 2009 at 18:40 in Announcements, Education by James ChenNo Comments »

I will be holding an FX Street premium webinar on Monday, January 26, 2009 at 13:30 GMT (8:30 AM U.S. Eastern Time). The title is “Disciplined Position Trading”. Learn the ways in which many professional traders shun the immediate gratification of short-term trading and concentrate on the really big, long-term moves in the forex market. This webinar will focus on the best methods for exploiting the highly trending nature of currencies, and will cover strategy, psychology, and risk management. If you are an FX Street Premium Subscriber, check out this webinar, as it will be a very useful and informative session. For more details and to pre-register, please click on the following link: http://www.fxstreet.com/live/sessions/session.aspx?id=06666091-d259-4c1d-aaee-7079c238c848 . Thank you!
James Chen

EUR/USD - Strength of the Bears
Posted on January 19, 2009 at 14:51 in Analysis by James Chen1 Comment »

After offering a glimmer of bullish hope late last week, EUR/USD (a daily chart of which is shown) has once again fallen to the bears as of Monday morning in New York. This indicates that the small upswing on Friday was probably just a minor retracement in the continuing downtrend. As it has since late December, the pair is continuing to look bearish, potentially targeting the long-term lows around 1.2330. Before possibly reaching that depth, however, if price drops substantially below the 1.3025 level, intermediate support resides around the 1.2800 region.

Forex Levels to Watch (Week of Jan 19-23, 2009)
Posted on January 19, 2009 at 1:36 in Analysis by James ChenNo Comments »

Below are major forex price levels to watch for the upcoming week of Jan 19-23, 2009:
EUR/USD - 1.3025 / 1.3798
USD/JPY - 88.46 / 94.62
GBP/USD - 1.4348 / 1.5372
USD/CHF - 1.0863 / 1.1287

USD/JPY - Bounce off Trendline Support
Posted on January 16, 2009 at 14:42 in Analysis by James ChenNo Comments »

After descending back down to a significant downtrend line from which it broke in the very beginning of the year, USD/JPY (a daily chart of which is shown) has just made a pronounced pullback bounce off the trendline in a classic case of resistance becoming support. Oscillators like the displayed Stochastics are showing a turn-up of momentum from extremely oversold. As of early Friday morning in New York, price is just under the key 91.00 support/resistance level. If price subsequently makes a strong break above this level, major resistance to the upside resides around the 93.50 region.

GBP/USD - Converging Consolidation
Posted on January 15, 2009 at 15:40 in Analysis by James Chen3 Comments »

Unlike the strong recent directional movement on the other major pairs, GBP/USD (a daily chart of which is shown) has been displaying a prolonged consolidation. This consolidation has now taken the rough form of a descending wedge pattern, and has been validated by at least three touches on each side of the wedge. The pair appears now to be forming a base, but any break below the bottom wedge border will obviously invalidate this view. In any event, there should shortly be an upside correction within the context of this converging consolidation, in which case the top of the wedge would serve as an obvious resistance target. And any strong break above the top wedge border should lend significant strength to a potential bullish reversal outlook.

USD/JPY - Yen Winning the Risk Aversion Game
Posted on January 14, 2009 at 17:12 in Analysis by James ChenNo Comments »

In a market environment of increasing risk aversion, yen has been making substantial gains. To view the technicals on the key USD/JPY pair, please click here for Wednesday’s Chart of the Day.

EUR/USD - Continued Freefall
Posted on January 14, 2009 at 14:41 in Analysis by James Chen2 Comments »

EUR/USD has continued its freefall of the past several days, breaking support level after support level in its potential quest to re-test long-term lows. Having broken down well below the noted 1.3300 region yesterday, the pair has gone on to break a key downtrend line, as shown on the accompanying EUR/USD daily chart. Where does price go from here? The bearishness in this pair, more likely than not, is far from over. Although we should soon be seeing a consolidation or correction after the impressive bearish run, EUR/USD currently looks to be targeting major support in the 1.2330 region, the level of the last long-term low. A strong break and close below the significant 1.3050 support/resistance level would lend additional strength to this bearish outlook.

Recorded Webinar Posted - The World of Forex Breakout Trading
Posted on January 13, 2009 at 15:58 in Announcements, Education by James ChenNo Comments »

In response to many inquiries, I wanted to post the link for my recorded webinar on Forex Breakout Trading, which I conducted live on January 8, 2009. So if you missed it, or attended and would like to review it again, here is the link to the video: http://transcripts.fxstreet.com/2009/01/the-world-of-forex-breakout-trading.html . Thank you!
James Chen

AUD/USD - Still Bearish after Channel Breakdown
Posted on January 13, 2009 at 15:03 in Analysis by James ChenNo Comments »

Bearish price action on the AUD/USD daily chart, as shown, appears to be headed even more south, possibly targeting a key long-term downtrend line currently in the 0.6500 region. Price has already broken down below the skinny parallel uptrend channel, as noted on this blog late last week (AUD/USD - Traversing a Breakable Channel). And the bias continues to look bearish. More updates and levels to come on this pair if price succeeds in breaking down below the above-mentioned long-term downtrend line.

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