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发表于 2009-4-7 18:54
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Posted on July 2, 2008 at 15:27 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The pair gain quickly despite I was unable to see this run today. Right now, the pair is above the roof of the horizontal channel clear in daily charts. If the pair manages to stay above 1.5850 and confirm with a candle opening up here, the figure will be pre announcing further raises for the medium term. However short term charts show the pair is over bought: we could see it returning to the zone around 1.5830/40 in the next minutes, it the maximum remains intact.
Not new, bad news in the US
Posted on July 2, 2008 at 14:24 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Not something market wasn’t expected yet the deviation between expected and real ADP (that sees June US private sector jobs down 79,000, against the expected down 20,000) has triggered a bearish rally in dollar all across the board, showing market players are highly skeptical of the US economic future. Although I’m not expecting larger rallies for today, if mayors consolidate around this zone, things are getting really dark for greenback.
Majors for today
Posted on July 2, 2008 at 11:21 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria Bednarik2 Comments »
Despite a new maximum at 1.5849 Eur/usd remains in range, unable to define a certain direction. In 4 hours charts the pair seems ready to correct a bit more today, but needs to confirm under 1.5775, first support for today, to continue in that direction to the zone around 1.5745. Seems unlikely the pair break trough that point today; to the up side, above 1.5820, the pair will retest the maximum’s zone, and could extend the movement till 1.5860.
GBP/USD rebounded yesterday in the roof of an ascendant channel, and with bad news from the housing sector, the pair is approaching to a very strong support level around 1.9820/30. Under that point, GBP will probably continue falling at least to the zone around 1.9785, next support for today. Resistances from actual price will be at 1.9904 and 1.9942.
USD/CHF is forming a double floor in 4 hours charts: an hourly candle opening above 1.0226, neck of the mentioned figure, could trigger a more interesting bullish rally, first to 1.0260 and finally the zone around 1.0300
USD/JPY is right now in a key zone, that could turn the pair bullish for the next hours: if the pair remains and confirms above 106.45, we could see a continuation to the zone around 106.78 and then the tough 107.10. Under 106.20, preview view will be denied and the pair should continue falling, first to 105,93 and finally the zone around 105.65
Starting the day
Posted on July 2, 2008 at 10:23 in Starting the day by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Good morning! Welcome to a new day in forex market. Dollar maintains it’s negative tone, despite Euro zone manufacturing activity contracted in June for the first time in three years, with the PMI falling to 49.2 from 50.6 in May, and U.K. PMI manufacturing index slumped to 45.8 in June, its lowest level since December 2001, but seems market players continue pricing in tomorrows data; anyway don’t expect too much action today, ahead of the big Thursday.
We have a number of fundamental news today, none of them of relevance, except maybe the US ADP. Please check the following link at FxStreet, to see the upcoming events for today
http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-calendar/
I will come back in a few minutes, with some technicals.
Have a great trading day!
Majors Update
Posted on July 1, 2008 at 13:59 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
USD/JPY has completed a pullback to the trend line broken earlier. It the pair is unable to confirm above 105.65, we surely see more falls here
Meanwhile, GBP approached to the first resistance, channel roof, and rebounded strongly. If passes 1.9946, we could see a deeper correction in the next hours.
Finally EUR/USD accomplished the proposed first target after breaking above 1.5780, to the zone around 1.5810. Right now, I cannot see a clear continuation from here, yet surely the pair remains bullish.
A final word about AUD/USD: the pair is turning bearish, after breaking a 4 hours ascendant trend line, and completed the pullback. It has an important congestion support zone around 0.9525, and seems like under 0.9520, the pair could gain momentum to the downside to the zone around 0.9485
More technical
Posted on July 1, 2008 at 11:05 in Uncategorized by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Japanese Yen continues to recover all across the board, helped by better than expected Tankan reading yesterday (in fact, the survey showed that manufactures expectations for the economy have continued to deteriorate, yet not as bad as the market was expecting).
In hourly charts, we can see a triangle, announcing a probable continuation to the down side, if the pair breaks the key support level around 105.50: the continuation will find a first support around 105.20 before breaking down to the zone around 104.90. A failure in the base of the triangle, will send the pair to the congestion zone around 106.10 and finally 106.47. Above this point, the pair will regain bullish strength.
USD/CHF, is moving sideways, unable to confirm a certain direction, yet tending bearish in bigger charts: the pair has a first support around 1.0170, followed by 1.0129 yesterday’s minimum: a break under this point could trigger a more interesting rally at least to the zone around 1.0085. Resistances from here will be at 1.0225, 1.0268 and finally the zone around 2.0300
Technical’s for Majors
Posted on July 1, 2008 at 10:38 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Taking a look at 4 hours charts, seems Eur/usd is ready to continue: yesterday the pair rebound exactly around the 38.2% of the last upleg, letting us draw an ascendant trend line that will be, together with the mentioned Fibo, the levels to watch: the pair will find the first support zone between 1.5720/40, and only a confirmation under those levels could turn into bearish, at least in the short term, targeting the zone around 1.5680, and finally 1.5650, 61.8% of the mentioned rally. To the upside, above 1.5780, the pair could easily recover ground returning to the zone around 1.5810 and finally 1.5843. Take a look a this chart:
GBP/USD remains strong, moving in an ascendant channel, with no signs of exhaustion coming from indicators: above 2.0010, roof of the mentioned channel, the pair will find it’s next resistance around 2.0033 and finally 2.0085, congestion zone. A correction will find supports at 1.9946 and the strong zone around 1.9890. A confirmation under this point could send the pair to the tough support around 1.9830.
Starting the day
Posted on July 1, 2008 at 10:18 in Uncategorized by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Good Morning! welcome to another day in forex market. Monday, as always, has been a boring day, with not much action around, and majors correcting last week rally. Yet the pause seems to come to an end and dollar continues falling, supported by good news both in Europe and England: German Retail sales early today come out far better than expected, and also did the Nationanwide House Prices in England, that remains the biggest winner these days. From the fundamental point of view, today we could see some more action, yet expect the markets to remain quiet tomorrow, ahead of the big Thursday. Anyway today, we have the following news, East time:
04:30 GBP Manufacturing PMI (Expected 49.8 Previous 50.0) High
10:00 US Construction Spending May (Expected -0.6% Previous -0.4%) Medium
10:00 US ISM Index June (Expected 48.6 Previous 49.6) High
Both indexes,PMI for GBP and ISM for US are expected under 50.0. A reading above 50.0 means growth, while under that mark means desaceleration.
In a few minutes, I will post the technical point of view
Have a great trading day!
USD/JPY hourly chart
Posted on June 30, 2008 at 15:20 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria Bednarik2 Comments »
The pair has found buyers around 105.00 and started a recovery above the key level of 105.50. right now, the pair needs to break above 105.94, a descendant trend line in hourly charts, that could trigger a more interesting bullish rally; also CCI is about to cross tue 0.00 line, ready to give a bullish signal. A confirmation above the trend line, will target at least, the zone around 106.20.
A fail to break the trend line, will send the pair back to 105.50. Remember we have Chicago PMI in the US in a few minutes.
« Newer posts – Older posts »
Posted on June 30, 2008 at 14:14 in Uncategorized by Valeria Bednarik3 Comments »
The pair has an ascendant trend line in 4 hours charts, around actual price, and also a 38.2% retracement of the last upleg. A hourly candle open under this line, will send the pair to the zone around 1.9875.
Take a look at this hourly chart.
Majors Update
Posted on June 30, 2008 at 10:40 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Eur/usd is quoting around 1.5810, and despite the pair is overbought, and technical divergences in 4 hours charts, the pair seems far for turning even in a small correction for now. Firs resistance for today will be the zone around 1.5845, followed by 1.5891 and finally 1.5920. Under 1.5789, the pair will find supports at the zone around 1.5750 and finally 1.5710.
GBP/Usd remains more clearly bullish, ready to test 2.00: the pair will find an intermediate resistance around 1.9965, that if broken will take the pair to 2.0000 followed by the strong zone around 2.0040. Supports from here will be at 1.9923, the zone around 1.9870 and finally 1.9830.
USD/CHF is giving signs of exhaustion in 4 hours chart, after already reaching 1.0140,first support for today, that if broke, will send the pair to the zone around 1.0105, an important congestion zone that won’t be easy to break. Resistances for the next hours will be at 1.0170, 1.0204 and finally 1.0233.
USD/JPY already tested the 105.00, and continues falling with no signs of a reversion yet. Under today’s minimum, the pair could easily conntinue to the zone around 104.60 and finally 104.34: watdh the US DJIA openning, as japanese yen is moving on risk aversion these days. Resistances from here, will be at 105.55 and then 105.91-
Starting the day
Posted on June 30, 2008 at 10:10 in Starting the day by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Good morning! Welcome to a new day in forex market. The first half of the year comes to an end with dollar really weak, falling across the board as the market has already priced in a rate hike from the ECB this week, while the most important report of the US, Non Farm Payrolls, is expected to disappoint also. In this situation, greenback continues falling against it’s major rivals despite the over sold state the currency is showing, yet dollar bears seems not that tired yet.
Today, we have the following news, East time:
5:00 EUR CPI Flash Estimate (Expected 3.9% Previous 3.7%)
9:45 USD Chicago PMI (Expected 48.2 Previous 49.1)
7:50 JPY Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (Expected 3 Previous 11)
7:50 JPY Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers Index (Expected 8 Previous 12)
9:30 JPY Average Cash Earnings y/y (Expected 0.7% Previous 0.8%)
Let’s take a look at the charts.
Mixed data in the U.S.
Posted on June 27, 2008 at 15:02 in Uncategorized by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Personal Income and Spending growth more than expected, yet inflation disappointed in the US. (check the following link to review the data: http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-calendar/ ), but despite the negative sentiment against dollar, majors seem quite exhausted and ready to start a correction: Euro needs to break under 1.5725 to run to the zone around 1.5680, while Japanese Yen needs to regain the 106.50 zone to trigger a bullish rally. GBP/USD, under 1.9853 to 1.9830.
Commodities Currencies
Posted on June 27, 2008 at 11:32 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria Bednarik1 Comment »
Another post special just for the Australian and Canadian dollar: as you know, they are called commodities currencies as Australian dollar follows gold, as Canadian usually moves with oil; well oil has hit a new record high: crude oil futures rises above $141 a barrel in early London trade, while gold is above 922.00 dollars.
That’s sending both currencies up against greenback, with AUD very close to it’s record high (quoting right now at 0.9621, only 35 pips away) a correction seems likely before the upside continuation above that maximum. Meanwhile Usd/Cad is very close to a key support level around 1.0046, that should hold for now.
Note Consumer Confidence fell more than expected in the Euro zone, and that keeps the currency a bit on hold, after already testing the strong 1.5780 zone: the resistance was strong enough to give an almost 30 pips correction. Let’s see if the pair moves to test it again, witch probably will mean a break trough.
Majors preview for the day
Posted on June 27, 2008 at 10:54 in Short-Term Analysis by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Eur/Usd remains bullish in 4 hours charts, with a first resistance zone around 1.5770/80. A confirmation Above this point the pair is ready to test the the 1.5845 zone with a previous detention zone around 1.5815. If 1.5780 remains unbroken we could see a correction to the zone around 1.5745, and then to 1.5710.
GBP/USD also remains strong as the pair is moving in an ascendant channel: above 1.9895, yesterday’s maximum, the pair will be targeting 1.9933 the roof of the mentioned channel: a confirmation outside it, will send the pair first to the zone around 1.9935/45 and finally to 1.9990. Supports from here will be at 1.9858, 1.9820 and finally 1.9770.
USD/CHF continues falling although the pair seems over sold: with a first support around 1.0160,only breaking under 1.0144 the pair will gain enough momentum to continue to the zone around 1.0108. A correction will have resistances at 1.0217, 1.0261 and finally 1.0300.
USD/JPY is breaking a daily ascendant trend line, around 106.50 today, pre announcing further falls: under 106.10 the pair could easily continue to the congestion zone around 105.84, and then to 105.26, with an intermediate support around 105.50. Resistances from here will be: first, 106.50 the mentioned trend line that if regained, will negate previous view, and could take the pair to 106.77 and then to the zone around 107.10.
Have a great treading day!
Starting the day
Posted on June 27, 2008 at 10:31 in Starting the day by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
Good morning! Welcome to a new day in forex market. Market remains dollar negative all across the board impelled by rising old and gold prices, and stocks drop, all of this after FOMC dovish decision last Wednesday; also, the Euro zone current accout deficit narrowed sharply in April, early this morning.
In a few minutes we have the first interesting fundamental of the day, for GBP, expected quite negative for England:
4:30 GBP Current Account(Expected –12.0B Previous –8.5B)
5:00 EUR Consumer Confidence (Expected -16 Previous -15)
08:30 US Personal Income (Expected 0.4% Previous 0.2%) and Personal Spending (Expected 0.7% Previous 0.2%)
08:30 US PCE Core Inflation (Expected 0.2% Previous 0.1%)
12:30 EUR ECB President Trichet Speaks
USD/JPY
Posted on June 26, 2008 at 18:52 in Uncategorized by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
The pair is right now, standing on a strong zone between 107,05 and 107,16. If you like trading breaks, wait for the pair to fall under 107,05: then it will probably continue to the zone around 106,85. But if you like rebounds, more likely at this time of the day, enter a bullish position to the zone around 107,30, wuth stop losses just a few pips under 107.00.
Remember the inverted triangle?
Posted on June 26, 2008 at 16:21 in Uncategorized by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
the Eur/Usd is running high, following a strong trend against dollar today. If the pair breaks above today’s maximum, we could see a continuation rally to the roof of the inverted triangle mentioned a few days ago, also coincident with a daily descendant trend line, around 1.5780, that will be a top resistance level zone for today.
Look at the 4 hours chart:
Supports and Resistance definition
Posted on June 26, 2008 at 16:15 in Technical Education by Valeria BednarikNo Comments »
My college Dr. S Sivaraman made a comment here that I found extremely inlighting, as I have a very short experience as a blogger, so I decided to start a Technical Education section, to clear definitions, concepts indicators, and all the tools we have aviable for trading, adding comments of which ones, in my experience, are more useful.
So starting from the bases, let’s say that
A Support is the zone under market actual price, where demand strength is more powerful than offer strength, what produce a “stop” of the bearish movement followed by a bullish rebound.
A Resistance, is the zone above market actual price, where offer strength is more powerful than demand strength, what produce a “stop” of the bullish movement followed by a bearish rebound.
So, we understand as support or resistance, a zone where inside a bullish or bearish trend offer and demand are quite balanced enough to stop the price rally or even produce a retracements.
Notice I remarked, first a zone: prices could pass a few pips one way or the other, before actually stopping or reversing. Also, stopping or reversing, that will depend on the volume traded at the moment, the publication of a fundamental new, and some other factors, is something very useful for short term trading: if you don’t have an external factor, (as a new) is more than probable that at least the first time a pair test an important zone, you will have a retracement of around 15 pips like actually majors did today. If prices remain close to the level, the second attempt will probably be a break trough, confirming a new rally at least to the zone of the next one.
Let’s remember, the strength of a support or a resistance, will increase as more times a price rebound on it without breaking, and as much as it longs during time. And at the same time as stronger is a resistance, the stronger will be the bullish potential when is broken (and of course the same goes for a support).
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