一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-4-6 08:31

38.2% temporary bottom met
At 1.3420.
That´s huge reaction for that fib ! But enough for me, I closed it immediately at 1.3638

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Merkinnät: 38.2% temporary bottom met

Eur_Usd + Eur_Jpy

[size=100%]Mr. Prechter in EW International made a brilliant job when he called all real investors to close all their short position with all equities in the very end of february at SPX 750 because counter risk were far too high. There´s huge waves under control now, even primary or cycle one´s if he´s right. Well, congratulations, that was indeed a a real short postition of 750 points (1500-750 = 750 points profit !!!).
[size=100%]SPX 60 minutes macd seems to be falling after first impulse, likely some more consolidate ahead of us. It´s damn too difficult for me to breake it now, large upside movement could partial of 4C, which would mean that plunge we started in january wasn´ t fifth wave position at all, it was only fifth wave position for last autumn freefall wave3 position. If this is the case we do work with huge size of 4:th upwave. We´ll see if we live, but I have´t saw major collection of bullish diagonals in individual equities - to consider if the bottom was placed at 668 we should have a thousands of them available easily or under progress now.
[size=100%]I really hope Prechter is wrong, because if he´s not we just started cycle or primary (or both) 2 upwave, which would practically kills us someday when it ends.
[size=100%]As stockmarket seems to consolidate a bit huge rally, I´ve been trading eur-usd again. It´s relatively much more easy as SPX. As you can see it took fully impulse to major 50% line (1.4700-1.2500) and under correction mode also.
[size=100%]There´s actually a real lot to trade in there if you go to one minute chart; ie. bought today 1.3500 in european market hours as it left big southern doji with one tiny a-b-c movement at 1.3475. Once it rallied 60-80 pips it build later bear diagonal again and in US market hours it took it down with new subminuette impulse or at least first part of it.
[size=100%]38.2% level is going to give reversal also, likely. This is not so agressive setup, just a main direction for me. EurJpy in one minute chart also at perfect shorting zone now at 132.55 level seems to confirm again that 1.3500 is resistance now after it was support earlier today (to short down again after 70 pips rally from the very latest bottom) and I do believe that my oil chart below is going to follow some day.
[size=100%]Once and if these main fib retracements are met as correction in here, then you should take a really good look for stockmarket also, because then we had arrived to the real crossroads where market direction might be confirmed for much longer run.

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Merkinnät: Eur_Usd + Eur_Jpy

Whops
[size=100%]That didn´t work out all.
[size=100%]I am very say guy now, not because of this small stoploss occured - but unfortunately we must made this bear market to stay with us at least one year longer in my count in pinpoints to the real ABYSS.
[size=100%]However, EW cycle bull has propably started allready, so, expect more to more - more closer of SPX900 or even 1000. My oil shorts is still on there - need to believe the pattern...

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Merkinnät: Whops

SPX 803, 23.3 - 2009
[size=100%]On the tape again (something similiar for previous 800).
[size=100%]Considering W1 would be similiar size as W2 I shorted it again. On rare cases W2 can come 110% from W1 (or then it´s B wave). There´s very clear impulse again in the chart. Should know these banks stocks are going to fly with Obama toxic assetts plan.
[size=100%]With that oil chart below, it looks alike overnight it plunged small A wave down, then tiny B wave up again. The completely diagonal is likely A wave, where B would correct it - not an impulse as I marked it in the bigger picture.
[size=100%]If these levels breakes in here to the upside, something very alternative by EW point of view is valid.
[size=100%]With Oil short my stops are placed at 56$ and with SPX in 813. I wasn´t actually planning to short SPX anymore - but coudn´t resist....

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Merkinnät: SPX 798

Oil - Not so fast Vladmir

[size=100%]Looks double diagonal for me with fifth wave own diagonal inside on there.
[size=100%]34 $ was bottom. 55 $ could behave roof for here > if 38.2% or 50 % correction would occur perhaps we could go next to 89
[size=100%]3-5-8-13-21-[size=130%]34-55-89-144[size=100%] (=recent top) - oil seems to trade with fib numbers.
[size=100%]UN opinion about currency basket might have something to do with here, carefully watch it with Eur-Usd. Leading diagonals very often overthrows and this is special behaviour with commodites.
[size=100%]Shorted it with stoploss of 55 $.

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Merkinnät: Oil - Not so fast Vladmir

21.3 - 2009 Weekend thoughts - work
[size=100%]SPX went to 768 pivot point in 2 days, I covered my SPX short but likely opening it soon again (just a bit trading for as this bear market won´t aloud us to stay at the long side).
[size=100%]Silent unviolent plunge from 800 to 768 appears to be small W1 for me, likely small and tiny W2 upwave ahead which should not violate SPX800 (in most often W2 comes 50 - 78.6% of W1 size with price and time attitude).
[size=100%]This might take a day, half or few (not important factor actually for anyone else as most nifty traders), then 5/5/3 down should follow ending below 700. Toxic assetts in US is going to be one subject on next week - more toxic bills to pay for US taxpayers, god help them.
[size=100%]Btw. By kontratieff point of view, market cycle is 8,6 years. If we multiply that with X 365 we end 3138 fibonacci number days. This targeted day seems to pinpoint for 23.4- 2009 based for work by Amstrong famous PI model. I do assume if we would take 3138 days looking behind far enough this chart is going to hit to the very meaningfull place where market turned last time.
[size=100%]There´s cycle downtrend bottom knocking our doors allready when and if we start to approach closer to the SPX 600 calm waters, but I do afraid we didn´t get this easy. Next autumn might come as ugly as previous one bringing a new downwave impulse for us - but it´s a little bit too early to look that far yet.
[size=100%]Slow motion is a bear market attitude. Everything moves much slower phase as during bull market: Peoble in the streets, cars and even a music tempo. Did you know that most classical music tempo were much slower in 193X. Here´s some stunning performaces from US. From the program format which ideally describe some psychology behind the bull market sceme.

[size=100%]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jLa5qYP_HCw
[size=100%]Enjoy the weekend & spring,
[size=100%]Market Geometry

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Merkinnät: 21.3 - 2009 Weekend thoughts - work

FED - the very last pyramid still standing
Added JP. Morgan and Goldman put options today for swing over the next weekend.

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Merkinnät: FED - the very last pyramid still standing

SPX800 - 18.3-2009
[size=100%]Too much for me and too fast. I did a exit all longs (actually sold most allready at SPX 770).
[size=100%]Perhaps this IV wave leads us far ahead at the end of the day meaning much later in longer run, but I prefer to take only easy setups and prefer to exit on time as well.
[size=100%]Particulary I don´t like FED action today even market bought an idea of "paper money".
[size=100%]I also shorted SPX800, planning to keep it for next week (if my stoploss with 823 will not blow it down).

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Merkinnät: SPX800 - 18.3-2009

16.3-2009
[size=100%]Now, that was nice fourth of fifth up wave from 662 Fib bottom (3/5). It seems it mostly effected to the financial & bank stocks pretty much doubling City and Band of America.
[size=100%]SPX 770-800 is the area where I would expect the final fifth of fifth to start to lead this market to the new bottom as mentioned SPX600 area. We are pretty much end of this bearmarket at least for now (next 6 months), nor later that 23.3 - 2009 - 23.4-2009 there should be massive long times ahead for us. [size=100%]Swiss frang is shorting allready as another approvement.
[size=100%]It´s great to be invested - personally I started to get tired for trading allready. Only advice I can give is that buy next plunge. If you´re more trader approach behaviour, be very carefull to short very last 5/5 - there´s huge truncated risk.

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Merkinnät: 16.3-2009

662 - fibonacci target bottom
[size=100%][size=130%]7.3 - 2009, Market Closed

Occured today.

Well, 666 if you want to dress it for devils number as DowJones cut 6666 too ;).

It appears GE run away from me - should act there on wensday when it really lost it´s tick. Not much action for me today, but holding what I bought yesterday + some Intel trading. There seems to be spike during the late hours with SPX - certainly because Fib662 was so close, even reasonable decent one. Now, we´re inside of far too low for me and it´s real danger to short anything anymore unless you´re very fast moving intrawave trader.

It´s time to start scanning most heavily oversold RSI´s from this market and time to take more conservative approach, I am planning to start taking some heat very soon. Be aware that if SPX600 fails, there would be more significant drop to much lower, far below 500 and no, I don´t call todays action as final bottom yet instead this is a reversal which might give more on next week or then not - but when all of this destroy finally ends even more temporary, I´ll do expect that it would be something more violent & specific issue related as silent friday lag of buyer & sellers.

With existing W5 truncated risk there should be soon some real investors buying, the one´s who are able to take the heat meaning well reserved cash.

Nor reversal, but not panic either - market starts to look pretty dead place. Nothing new in this posts I assume for my readers, 600-662 is buy road for me and very minium target of it was met today with 4 points error. [size=100%]

I am preparing also with Eur-Usd more steady reversal in here also back to 1.30000 area[size=100%]. I propably should call todays as "mini-minium" buying requirements are met with SPX points, but I really didn´t expect this targeted range to come this quickly, basically many weeks freefall withthout any positive day at all and it didn´t pause today either before very last hours.[size=100%] Market is 2 weeks ahead from my charts. One more up, one more down and we could be clear if none of the waves in this impulse will not extend. If waves will extend, this spring is going to be very ugly.

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Merkinnät: 662 - new bottom

Well,
[size=100%]No breake for bears it seems, but yesterday selling program was not very panic either to my eyes even Indexes ended big minus pertantages the day. I bought Adobe, Pfizer, 2X Intel and Amazon yesterday even they didn´t actually fall together with market - more or less they all were dead flat.

Market still seems to sell bank´s and financials mostly. JPM, The US biggest bank at the freefall. Perhaps that GE would be buy at 5 $ also if it falls that far.

I am waiting at least some breake for friday, but likely we are going down again on next week to my abyss as mentioned 600-650 area before, but I cannot smell much panic on there yet - Vix seems not to spike either even there´s SMA 50/200 bullcross behind of it.

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Merkinnät: Well

Terminal Breake
5.3 - 2009
[size=100%]
Perhaps it´s time to re-consider this market as terminal breake for bears again. Some stocks starts to get real hammered and as one example is General Electric. With 4 days it sold down -40% which was real hammer from the marketplace - is this enough for world biggest company ?
It starts to sound a very mad, GE money is not a bank and very small part of their business.

Also, one exceptional stock does not much care about market selling is Amazon, it looks like would prefer to breake SMA200 line to the upside and with that MACD I cannot see much bears with it instead more upside impulses. Third one is Adobe, RSI-30 line seems to bottomed allready, at least now, so is Pfizer.

I see this market very danger now to estimate actual direction from here, have you ever seen the bear rally, if that one occures Eur-Usd can run in here even 600 pips and it´s the US dollar which dominates the market, only advice I can say is that follow it (Eur-Yen also).

The market was slightly positive yesterday, even it still looked very much as bear bounce and falled again during the last hours leading us pretty much nowwhere else than back to SPX710 which is not far away from ultimate new low (692). Financial and Banks stocks were still under pressure and ended day with big minus percentages.

[size=100%]And yes, when writing this for europen morning coffee, SPX futures are selling down back to 692...[size=100%]because General Motors informed they might get down if they don´t get more money told reuters. Interesting, because 692 is also pivot support.[size=100%] God Damn, Let it go down, it would approve that economy still works.

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Merkinnät: Terminal Breake

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-4-6 08:32

Nokia & Other PinPoints
[size=130%]1.3 - 2009, Weekend Thoughts & Work PinPoints,

[size=100%]- Gold has topped at 1000 $ and preparing to fall more.

- Oil has bottomed at 13.2-2009 with 34 $ future price (rollover weekend).

- SPX will find bottom between 600-662 - Minor Wave 5 should end there.

- Tele-operators are most bullish stocks globally at sector rotations.
(American Tower from US as one example)

- SOX / SMH stocks are the weakest sector to try to short anymore.

- Chinese and Russian´s StockMarkets has bottomed allready.

- Market absolute turn will occure between 17 - 27.3. 2009
(SPX points are the most important one´s).

- Energy might appears to have have leading sector at this time before everything else turns

- REIT´s are the best to short.[size=100%]

- IBM bottom is placed allready[size=100%].

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Merkinnät: Nokia

SPX
[size=100%]27.2 - 2009

There was likely sideways triangle break occured today which should give some boost to the downside again, perhaps not so big - as you can see 780 double fib resistance (with 2 different timeframes) kept roof while market traded 752 fib bottom twice today closing just above 750.

This could be new impulse, but as market is generally more sideways as during last year end-of-era waves, be very carefull with SPX 734-740 area. There´s real big 38.2% retracement on there from 34 years of SPX history chart plus many others, not to forget mention old bottom.

So, what are these EW labels, pasted bottom in the chart is either extended W1 or W3 of fifth position. Marked it as W3 meaning not extended impulse would be the scenario.

I would bet one of the wave will extend in here by end of the day meaning pretty pessimistic end result, but everyone should work with 5 and 15 minutes macd - as you had seen allready this market does not fall with the same speed anymore as it did 2008. Either the way, it´s pattern break-out meaning direction should be down from here.

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Merkinnät: SPX

780 Resistance Hit
[size=100%]Kind of flat bullish day, SMH (semi´s) was at some stage even over +5% rally mode, so some divergece seems to occur allready between the sectors.

My FAS chart below offered some upside trading twice today and looks alike BKX index had also same doji a few days ago as well as Bank of America, but today FAS finally ended day with "long legged doji" day candle ending slightly positive territory after SPX 780 resistance was hit and sold - long legged doji is bearish says my book . Reason for me to stay out and watch, because it´s not only ETF, it´s weapon because of it´s beta X 3. Bank of America has actually come up now over +100% in one week which is very decent.

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Merkinnät: 780 Resistance Hit

SPX 840 - DoubleBottom Holds
[size=100%]25.2 - 2009

Interesting, Bernanke spoke worked.

I think market will pretty much rest the rest of the week or two, meaning we will not breake this bottom yet - it´s pretty singificant since it´s 1997 asian crisis bottom also. When looking my favorite RSI-30 bottom charts, perhaps this is one need to take some upside room (to fall again).

Macd has come up for very long since price has still be falling. It´s not far away from zero either ;). Perhaps, at least we could get another positive candle or two for it. While 780-800 for SPX should be resistance, in W5 there should be some divergences exist allready - meaning some stocks might have very independent life, looks alike financial stocks might offer some examples. It´s been really amazing deep abyss in the chart in the past 3 months because these stocks didn´t reach to the upside with W4 either.

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Merkinnät: SPX 840 - DoubleBottom Holds

Sweden - ABB, German - Siemens, China - FXI
[size=100%][size=130%]24.2 - 2008

On the way, deep, deep down together with SPX.

Just a 3 example charts of international stocks & China Index with IV corrective wave top patterns together with bearish Head&Shoulders currently progressing V downside wave impulse. SPX 618-682, here we go....

It´s going be interesting how market is going to behave tomorrow as old bottom at SPX 840 comes, at least today market did not have courage to try to sell it through yet, one short lived rebound or directly through to the abyss ?

I am not sure is this slow progress down good news or bad news, but we still have plenty to go before even minimal target of fully impulse would be met.

Nothing much to add any of previous posts, it´s still wave 3 of 5 (3/5) on the progress, most likely wave 2/5 corrective is placed at the right shoulder in these charts. Still falling love with shorting & puts.

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Merkinnät: China - FXI, German - Siemens, Sweden - ABB

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-4-6 08:33

SPX 13.2 - 2009
[size=100%]Just how many HS patterns we need ;). One more time (again), perhaps 848 pivot gravity do it again or perhaps it will fall just before touching it. 850 seems to be important factor for this market. Waves still appears & comes very clear, I just don´t know anymore where they belongs, perhaps W2 ZigZag (in lower chart ZigZag shows).

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Merkinnät: SPX 13.2 - 2009

SPX
[size=100%]SPX 4 hours chart, trading with golden mean touches, just below SMA-50 line.

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Merkinnät: SPX

SPX, Do you recognice this pattern ?

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Merkinnät: Do you recognice this pattern ?, SPX

Eur-Usd "Obama speaks" signal is here again

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Merkinnät: Eur-Usd "Obama speaks" signal is here again

Dublex HeadShoulder Patterns
[size=130%]6.1 - 2009

[size=100%]Eur-Usd. Should follow the guidelines, let you profits run....I don´t know why I cover these shorts at all in any stage, there´s usually just another deeper plunge just on the next corner coming, but looking now, it´s very exotic with EW - I cannot fulfill it with waves, but asian market has build 1 minute inverse HS (bullish) and 5 minute chart from pasted 3 days is (bearish).

Perhaps I´ll leave it now for tomorrow, but still I am bearish with it in the longer run. Interesting detail by pattern side of view is that this right shoulder with Island spike was placed for ECB news to fall.

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Merkinnät: Dublex HeadShoulder Patterns

Market Closed, QQQQ
[size=100%]Bot first put options from nice cisco rally for QQQQ, such a long time since last traded this product. SMA-50 line for SOX/SMH looks a bit attractive at this moment, but really looking for swing to this for the next week and it´s unchanged. I will be looking tomorrow also some ETF´s (there´s so many new beta 3X etf´s). Closed Eur-Usd or actually trailing stop did it as it plunged pretty hard after ECB disappointment news to leave rate unchanged. It would still trade far much lower and never reached my entry point anymore, but perhaps new setup would come tomorrow. It´s not easy by EW point of view now (at least for me) - in past 2 days zigzag is most likely scenario.[size=100%]

Likely going to trade it a bit during Asian market hours, but those trades are too fast to post charts as working under 40 pips movements.

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Merkinnät: Market Closed, QQQQ

5.1 - 2009 Short of Everything
[size=100%]I shorted ECB ratecut, need to mention bear wedge also in minute chart. 1.2895 - 1.2900 area looks to be similiar B wave top with Eur-Usd usually seen with bear diagonal.

I will also load bear ETF´s as well as put options today for portofolio for longer swing, with
[size=100%]conservative target SPX 500-600[size=100%]...

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Merkinnät: 5.1 - 2009 Short of Everything

SPX 848-862
[size=100%]While market rallied a bit today before coming down again during afternoon, I do suppose now that right shoulder was placed with 850. Still, it´s industrial / dow jones driven path down, QQQQ is more flat as negative.

Cisco might keep some mild postive air on the SMH/SOX part, but I do expect market to start coming down again, nor later that next week if we consolidate / zigzag rest of the week. Very lazy market indeed.

Eur-Usd rallied about 130 pips since last post, but my trailing stop did exit it allready for 50% + 61.8% fibs (marked in chart) and I don´t think that count is valid anymore, it starts to look much more than bearish HS pattern also (too many of those nowdays everywhere you look), even it´s still trading above my original entry setup post. It´s doing pretty much nothing anymore meaning sideways zigzag tonight, there´s big risk that more impulses could follow down for it.

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Merkinnät: SPX 848-862

Eur-Usd
[size=100%]4.1 - 2009

Hmmm, it seems stockmarket have huge divergences between the sectors. SOX / SMH still have relative good times.

This is 15 minutes eur-usd chart and supporting from my 2 hours wedge data chart posted before, I bot long again for possible C wave. Does it hold, I have no idea, but trailing stop will work with it. 15, 30 and 60 minutes MACD´s are still bearish, hopefully turning.

[size=100%]With SPX I cannot see any impulses down since that 872 top yet, it starts to looks much more like A-B-C down and reached again allmost 805 on monday. Looking for example Catepillar chart, I wonder a bit can we sell more those industrial stocks, they starts to be pretty oversold. Hopefully it builds something more clear soon again, but it seems my HS pattern comes true with it as speculated earlier with that 30 minutes chart. However divergences are huge, for example Transportation and Maritime sectors had very bullish action yesterday, Sox / Smh also still going well with that SMA-50 line.

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Merkinnät: Eur-Usd

Usd-Chf
[size=100%]

Not so often, but sometimes my most favorite patterns appears somewhere and in very rare cases it appears also as clear as it is at this time with USD-CHF. My old readers certainly know I mean diagonals which are very high propability patterns plus my favorite one´s, but what really surprize me is how deeply FX market trades by physical fib numbers as well. Stocks do the same, but nothing this hardcore FX market does.

I noticed this accidently on sunday night and kept watching next 48 hours. It´s very good indicator for Eur-Usd also and I was not surpriced that at the same time as Eur-Usd found 1.2700 bottom as perfect fib number + distance to fullfill that last W5 (1.27) Swiss Frang found it with price 1.168 (or 2 pips lower).

Euro expects to see surprizing ratecut by ECB and speculation starting to roll in immediately after asian market dropped W5 down with Eur-Usd on sunday night (for my previous 2 hours wedge chart) which was missing only W5. Therefore I suppose I was right also with that W3 doublebottom.

Let´s see how does it progress now, but pattern works now. Enjoy the view of USD-CHF 2 and 4 hours charts plus yearlong daily chart below. You cannot deny that first leg down was also impulse, this is why I marked it as impulse W1.

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Merkinnät: Usd-Chf

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-4-6 08:35

SPX, Oil, Gold, Eur-Usd
[size=130%]Saturday, 31.1 - 2009

[size=100%]Something I see. Gold might come as trade of the year, but perhaps it need to pause also for a while, be aware that in commodity sector W5 is very often longest wave.

I can bring only very little hope anymore, but see how deeply waves works with retracements. With SPX there´s little hope it would build even bigger HS on future missing right shoulder, but I am afraid we´re inside of impulses allready and very deep of them and nothing much going to change it much in long run.

The good news is that QQQQ, SOX, OIH, XLE all trade just above of SMA-50 line with no extreme bear setups available via oscillators either. It seems to be mostly industrial stocks are taking free landing. With that Eur-Usd DoubleBottom, perhaps there´s hope at least one wave ended, but sooner or later we will just change new impulse wave from one to another.

We´re in deflation now officially, in long run I don´t see much places to buy real long term holdings for very long time. I had been wondering for real long if eur-usd is leading stockmarket and once again I think last week showed it does, it´s far ahead of stockmarket by EW point of view allmost in every EW timeframes.

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Merkinnät: Eur-Usd, Gold, Oil, SPX

And so are we going down....Bear HS was placed...

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Merkinnät: And so are we going down....Bear HS was placed...

30.1 - 2009 Friday, European MidDay
[size=100%]At least they´re beautifull, cannot deny it.

SPX and Eur-Usd. Deep fall night after night. If previous bottom will get broken without doing doublebottom, I think SPX will do the same, meaning market would be no kidding anymore with SPX800 area which has gave a lot of temporary upside reversals at so far. In that case I need to serious think W3/5 sepaku wave down would follow and most important big W4 is behind allready as well as W1/5.

Mentioned earlier with mass-destruction bear wedges post that SPX wedge will propably overlap (overthrow) and it certainly did approximately 24 points. I had a little hope that cup&handle could come real, but yesterday key level was broken also, better to stay with more accurate ew patterns - they seems to work like a dream factory. However, there seems to be some Ok stocks still in the air like Amazon with SMA50 line.

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Merkinnät: 30.1 - 2009 Friday, European MidDay

Down
[size=130%]Party is over....it wasn´t just FED alone...

W4 is allways HS pattern, but enough trading for me, leaving to the pub after succesfull week.

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Merkinnät: Down

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-4-6 08:36

Hmmmm,
[size=100%]
First subminuette impulse ready, big volalitet during these market hours, so quickly runner way up and at least first A or 2 down again, watch if yellow line holds. If not we have troubles...

I think this market is now far too fast to post anything, patterns just comes and goes, trade what you see market....

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Merkinnät: Hmmmm

50 % BoardRoom Meeting,
[size=100%]New day, new challenge.

Eur-Usd still trading my charts route.

Exact 50% correction is met now also, while it sank more during Asian market hours + rest during the european morning.

Diagonal chart below should be ready now and I am long with it 1.3040 (50%). Based for Bear Wedge Chart below. Cup & Handle pattern should be placed now also, it was actually that handle I shorted earlier with those wedges, in EW terms this is very often marks W2.

If these patterns holds now including inverse HS, runaway might come pretty sizy.

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Merkinnät: 50 % BoardRoom Meeting

Hmmmm,
[size=100%]While Eur-Usd 38.2% correction came it would give similiar size of each wave; A, B and C - which I suppose should be also minimal correction. We´ll see if 50% or even 61.8% will come, but pattern starts to looks alike now inverse HS and also Cup & Handle which is bullish, with 50% Fib it would be perfect for inverse HS. With most cases C would never come as this "short", but I assume it´s possible because of these bigger bullish patterns exist with bigger ew timeframes.

Btw. It seems StockMarket didn´t much bother about this event and there was bulllish day behind. That´s something new. Eur-Usd bigger count (with 2 hours data) have bullish wedge I allready posted before. I assume we have a lot of waves working for different direction, this is also the reason why B wave was so long lasting with previous pattern, but I bet most waves are for upside - one reason last plunge was difficult to get - but indeed found it on time.

Likely will update this post tomorrow, but here´s some much bigger patterns behaves with Eur-Usd. Good profit, Case Closed, Good Night.

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Merkinnät: Hmmmm

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-4-6 08:37

Short in everything - everywhere
[size=100%]Say Good Morning to Bearish Wedges,

(Too many bear pattern to list starting from SouthAfrican ZAR, Spend some time with Eur-Usd Charts as these charts pop up a bit surprizingly to my eyes[size=100%].
[size=100%]Btw. if SPX builds it´s own now also (bear wedge), overthrow likely going to happen or then it´s missing someto the upside, I have difficult to fit waves for it yet to complete pattern, perhaps it´s not impulse at all but it differs from currency pairs patterns. It trades 856 which is new high also for a while. Wedge lines draw it higher.

Eur-Usd looks alike build one another bear wedge (in subminuette count) again to top at 1.3260 with last W5. We live weird times, wedges everywhere !
[size=100%]
(Be Aware of possible OverThrows).
[size=100%]
28.1 - 2008 I did edit Eur-Usd Chart by overnight as B wave came similiar size of of A, at least that´s what is does look alike now = 2 first charts for most important Eur-Usd.

2[size=100%]8.1-2008 Updated Eur-Usd 5 Minutes Chart (Huge Island Occured).
[size=100%]
This starts to look reasonable difficult, Eur-Usd comes down everytime, but 2 hours datachart fib 23.6% at 1.3220 seems to have no interest to give it away, hopefully tomorrow brings more power for it..[size=100%].

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Merkinnät: Short in everything - everywhere

Eur-Usd (Additional Pattern for previous post)
[size=100%]European Morning reach it slightly higher after previous B, but subminuette C wave down seems to be accurate.

I think at least first part of subminuette correction could be over for 1.3120, haven´t broke it for EW´s and not time to do it either, but I fully trust patterns. (see previous charts for more accurate and bigger patterns, this is just one trade from there...)

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Merkinnät: Eur-Usd (Additional Pattern for previous post)

Eur-Usd

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-4-6 08:37

Eur-Usd
[size=130%]Finally it starts to make some sense,

[size=100%]New week, new challenges.

Mentioned last week Eur-Usd should come tradable again to the upside. With 2 hours data Bull Wedge is certainly confirmed while 5 minutes data looks alike build allready first impulse, the roof trades now right at the 23,6% fib with subminuette EW count, but with 2 Hours data 38.2% resistance stands about 1.3500 - above for it 50% could come real at 1.3750. There´s all MACD bull crosses from last week occured for Eur-Usd; 5, 15, 30, 60, 120 and 180 minutes and even 240 minutes.

[size=100%]To add life a little more complex, be aware the lowest OIL chart was taken at the same time as with 1 hour datachart and it looks alike might be building bear wedge.

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Merkinnät: Eur-Usd

Palm - too much, too fast = RSI short
According to statements made in the company's third-quarter conference call, Apple could be on the verge of taking legal action against Palm. But why would these 2 smartphone makers come to blows?

It seems that Apple no longer has exclusivity to the multi-touch interface. Specifically, Palm's new WebOS platform and its Pre smartphone have this capability. Making the situation even more suspicious is that Palm's Executive Chairman Jon Rubinstein used to be a top hardware engineer at Apple, while Fred Anderson, now a director at Palm, was previously Apple's chief financial officer. Apple's COO Tim Cook all but took the offensive in today's conference call. "We like competition as long as they don't rip off our IP," he said, "And if they do, we're going to go after anybody that does."
When listeners asked about Palm (PALM) specifically, Cook replied: "I don't want to talk about any specific company. I'm just making a general statement that we think competition is good. It makes us all better. And we are ready to suit up and go against anyone. However, we will not stand for having our IP ripped off. And we will use whatever weapons that we have at our disposal. I don't know that I can be any more clear than that."

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Merkinnät: Palm - too much, too fast = RSI short

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-4-6 08:38

CarryTrade Charts
[size=100%]Just forget to add this chart for previous posts&comments, this is the real reason why assetts and stocks took some upside shots, huge doublebottom. The pressure or heat comes nowhere else as UsdYen heatmap...chart is 2 hours datachart.

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Merkinnät: CarryTrade Charts

Some thoughts

[size=100%]

Could be that CREE will reach SMA200, which would give price 21 $, but I suppose this starts to be enough (after all it was pretty good reaction from inverse HS pattern, even it was very large large daily candle range in percentage terms).

It seems SPX took another hit later today after some recovery was done, while market reaction was pretty agressive to the upside much later, I suppose that 1/5 was placed during afternoon. Very last fifth looks to be a truncated or it was similiar size as it reached another touch to the 800 area.

If this is the case now we should starting getting very different kind of waves as what we have seen at so far during last 2 monts because it would mean we had left that boring wave 4 behind of us. In natural order we would be working now with new 2 (if my count is correct). If previous top as SPX 940 would get broken to the upside it invalidates my count.

Asian markethours offered Eur-Usd 1.2950 while writing this, it´s 50% fib correction what it advanced during late night US rally since new year 2009 bottom. This is for scalper tales long setup as market is now much more unsure how far this SPX W2 leads us (or what is new wave setup), perhaps fibs starts to work again in shorter timeframes also meaning 40-50 pips scalping should come more easy. I bet there´s a real lot of positions stopped recently during basically freefall from 1.4700 to the 1.2830 level.

In generally if we consider that SPX W3 ended during 2008 (with SPX 740) where recover as W4 started - I can easily imagine over 13 different scenarios how this is going to be played out before we reach end of this sepaku wave, but it would not be first time while upside W2 or W4 takes very large daily & agressive daily movement, we saw these last autumn very offen and there was no guarantee that next day would follow it - quote opposite. One alternate could be also that 5/1/3 ended at SPX 800 and there would be 5/1/4 progress now which would lead 5/1/5 next, it all just depends how many EW timeframes we look (there´s 13 of them).

However, the difference is that we don´t have EXTREME bear setups now available by pattern site of view (at least I haven´t found) and I can still also find plenty of decent bottom setups,
CREE was one good example.

I am extra carefull anyway next weeks , because when this, perhaps complex wave 2 would be over, next downside impulse would not be one I would like to hold as it would mean 3/5. However, at least one good news is that in my lower chart smaller W3 extended allready in very first wave 1, so this fifth should not do the same as it looked allready it came very short today - theory by itself seems to work, it just difficult sometimes to apply for production.

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Merkinnät: Some thoughts

Eur-Usd
[size=100%]At least some size of short covering in here also after HS pattern by the very end of day...

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Merkinnät: Eur-Usd

SPX
[size=100%]Possible first impulse might be ready soon. SPX seems to cover sligtly (815 now )by overnight and looks alike subminuette a-b-c [size=100%](corrective) [size=100%]pattern upside again. W1 size was about 50 points, while W3 was 90 points, W5 at so far 60 points.

IF this is coming to the end of first downside impulse since primary/minor 5 with this points.

W3 = 1.78 X wave1
W5 = 1.382 X wave1

Btw: With minium I cannot see last smaller fifth downside impulse placed yet there, but I suppose everyone would agree yesterday was wave 3.

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Merkinnät: SPX

Sepaku Wave
[size=100%]Nasdaq down allmost -6%, while bank´s still leading & pinpointing to the Abyss. We´re inside of fifth downside impulse indeed, are we still inside of 1/5 or did we allready changed it for 3/5 - does it actually matter. Both direction is the same, but speed of progress might suggest we changed the wave to the 3/5 allready or at least 5/1/3.

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Merkinnät: Sepaku Wave

Obama DownSide Bull
[size=130%]Amazing Obama Morning Opening, SPX 820>

[size=100%]Take a look of SP-100 biggest decliners;
BANK OF NY MELLON CP USD 16,49 -28,18%
Bank of America Corp. USD 5,92 -17,55%
Wells Fargo & Co. (New) USD 16,03 -14,19%
JPMorgan Chase & Co. USD 20,12 -11,83%
Citigroup Inc USD 3,09 -11,71%[size=100%]

[size=130%]GBP/JPY -3,8%

SPX looks a bit like bearish HS pattern.
[size=100%]Today might migh come as very volalitet day...

[size=100%][size=130%]

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Merkinnät: Obama DownSide Bull

Cree
[size=100%]Something more 50 & 50 basic for a while at daily chart. CREE will report earnings tomorrow after market closing, looks alike RSI 50 + Moving Average 50 trying to hold with mild positive volume.

Pattern looks alike inverted head & shoulder. Stock has been trading big turns allways based for fib numbers by itself, 34, 21, 27 (GANN), and latest bottom price as around 13 $ sounds like a one more. Bottom price was also 50% correction since last top.

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Merkinnät: Cree

Another stop,
[size=100%]Now it´s tested - bear wedge is bear wedge nor matter where it is located. It´s allways short wave. I does not need to be located only with W3 or with W5, it can be also W1 and perhaps it can be even even wave A.

I suppose I needed to see this myself, we had talked about this issue a lot with trading partners recently.

[size=130%]-16 Pips

Btw. 15 Minutes macd cross & bottom did not come before price found 78.6% fib, I think this should be every Fx traders core tool before even looking shorter timeframes.

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Merkinnät: Another stop

Hmmmmm,
[size=100%]That didn´t hold for long. Tiny 40 pips advance and quickly down again.

[size=130%]Stopped it at 1.337 = -13 Pips

[size=130%]Opened another one as 50% > 1.3210, if this stops also I will likely exit from market - there´s none of the reason to look at it today. Dax is week/flat also, perhaps someone took party far too early with UK bank newsflow. I think 15 minutes MACD should give bullish cross before going long, it hasn´t give any cross yet and might be that it´s wont.

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Merkinnät: Hmmmmm

EuroDollar
[size=130%]19.1 - 2009, European Morning.

[size=100%]It will be silent day as US is closed today. Looks alike I should stay short overnight also, but I just opened new long position at 1.3250 based for some ew patterns as 15 minute chart pinpoints.

If this 38.2% will not support, I will open 50% support long position also.

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Merkinnät: eurodollar

Older Posts

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-4-6 08:43

EuroDollar
[size=100%]19.1 - 2008, Sunday Night

[size=100%]Time to be chicken now because I need a sleep!

Minute oscillators start about turning.

[size=130%]+58 Pips

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Merkinnät: eurodollar

EuroDollar
[size=130%]19.1 - 2008[size=130%], Sunday Evening

[size=100%]
Weekend allmost over. I never had opened market this early (I suppose none of the far east markets are not even open yet), but it seems my last count has failed at some stage during sunday or then overthrow was just done to blow out a real lot of short positions or perhaps it was just effort of that Obama Concert I just watched from Tv ;). EuroDollar has spiked to the 1.3380!

It might be that I was completely wrong with waves , but spending a moment with my macd machine it looks so overbough for me with small timeframes, I just opened short position for it anyway as I was planning to do originally. Besides this is not far away from 1.3400 - 1.3420 level either which should offer some resistance (at least in shortterm). Let´s see how does it looks when monday arrives.

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Saturday Morning, EuroDollar
[size=130%]17.1 - 2008 Saturday Night

[size=100%]Well, it seems my exit was done pretty good time since 1.3340 was top for the day - well, it was just EW impulse which looked about to be ready. I am postive sure I would short it with my MACD if I would be in the market.

Currency market is bit hazard, you need to be ready to change cource & opinion very quickly if technically something new approvements appears or seems to develop. On the other hand there would be no catastrof happened, it crashed 40 pips and then another touch to the 1.3300 area again followed.

BUT, I think I need to change my view in here for next week based for EW patterns again and we will never see that final end to the 1.3400 for this wave structure.

Firstly, it looks very much as A-B correction after speculated impulse came just as it shoud be and with minimium C wave down to should follow with 5 minute chart, but 15 minutes chart also shows up as expanding bearish triangle and E could be pretty massive. Even with this 5 minute chart below, impulse size is quite a lotfy (at least for me !). I think we might reverse very strongly from here back to bear market, which in generally seems to be related only for banks in stockside. Most tech´s I follow seems still Ok for me - that gracy PALM alone up +38% yesterday, and +10% more today.

Btw. I still have RIMM and ATVI longs and both did Ok today, RIMM up +4% after yesterdays +10% reaction and ATVI wedge should be broken now to the upside with runaway gap, so I expect to see more uproads for both of them. Both of them are techical swings for me. If you know any decent technical swings I am open for new suggestions. My portofolio is very low & empty.

[size=130%]Enjoy your weekend !

[size=100%]Btw. those white fib´s marked in 5 minute chart for traders who prefer more fast setups, temporary reversal areas you should be aware.

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Merkinnät: eurodollar, Saturday Morning

Baby, we´re flying...
[size=130%]16.1 - 2008 Friday, US Morning

[size=100%]That came quickly (I thought I would need to wait next week with this one), even I think it´s a bit risky to leave europeans trade overnight positions without monitoring. 1.3300 reached at so far twice (looks a bit like resistance), perhaps there´s still that another 100 pips road upcoming, but with this much advance I lock profit with trailingstop.

IF this another breake of 1.3300 will not get success I will not take profit out, if it will advance more - I let it run, but I will not accept any 1.3300 support test anymore. It trades 1.3320 now, so break from this level might come succeed also meaning more advanced impulse but if not, profit taken in here.
[size=130%]
[size=130%]+138 pips[size=130%] (Minium)

[size=100%]Have a good weekend, likely taking day-off today from US market.

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Merkinnät: Baby, we´re flying...

EuroDollar
[size=130%]16.1 - 2008 Asian Market

[size=100%]Eurodollar allready started rally exactly at the same time with previous SPX bottom chart in US markethours, but looking a bit bigger charts as below with two hour and 30 minutes shots explains the story.

The bottom was placed with ECB ratecut and it turned right after touched 78.6% fib, if you look the impulse road which it definetely was, retracements are very correctly based all way long for each waves based for EW theory. There´s very clear place where we could turn as for new wave if market would stay at positive side a little longer. Propably in real EW world eurodollar chart much more and very complex one, but as it is not necessary even to try to breake complete ew picture with all necessary timeframes as we could see a plenty of possible trading setups from the charts below.

So again, eurodollar just rallied to this 1.3200 key level again mentioned before hundreds of time, where multiple fib levels are placed, not alone this 23.6%, with other timeframes there´s also at least one another 61.8% located.

The lower chart is just closer look of very last fifth impulse. Asian market is nowdays very "chicken", they don´t have much guts to try to breake any key fib levels - basically they trade only what US and Europeans left for them as easy road and mostly there´s not much left to go before Europen and US market hours take contral again.

However, I do believe that at this time 1.3200 will bet breaken very soon to the upside and I´ll leave it run for overnight (with trailingstop). It should easily reach 61.8% fib first and perhaps later even 50% fib level.

[size=100%]These are very big charts, so look them very closely (not subminuette charts), alone to reach even 61.8% fib level would be over 300 pips runaway road (likely it will be at least some size of shorting road also after and if reached it as 1.3400, but it would be need to re-considered there anyway again does this hold at all).[size=100%]

This looks very attractive place for me to reach real big bang with eurodollar and I am staying with it, note that minute or 5 minute movements won´t even much show up in these charts, so if you´re just scalper or daytrader this might not help you much as details of information.
[size=100%]I don´t know is this coming to be true, but at least it seems market is buying the same idea as SPX turned today also at the same place and my MACD machine approved it.
[size=100%]
(My trailing stop for this setup is 60 pips and positions was opened today at 1.3162)

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Merkinnät: eurodollar

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-4-6 08:43

So, so,
[size=100%]16.1 - 2008 (European time) Market Closed

[size=100%]Chrisis, that was nice runaway indeed, SPX got resistance from exact point of 848 - which is also resistance. However as 50% retracement from intra view offered another support there´s still chance market could run even higher. (perhaps I´ll still keep hope of C of IV to come true). Is it going to happen, I don´t know - it depends what EW letter we need to add to this 848 intra climax top. EuroDollar seems to dance now also with SP. My SPX entry was based for different MACD packets, so I cannot confirm it is it just part of the downside correction or did something end on there. (Sorry, a bit lazy with EW counting now).

Btw. There´s 2 stocks in mobile phone business which might come as very succesfull strories nor matter market has been negative for several days. Another one is Palm and another is RIMM. Rimm chart is very bullish, so it Palm. Palm runaway has been amazing story allready - I think it´s up around 500% since bottom, but RIMM might be just starting it based for it charts.

[size=100%]Might trade later again Asian markethours with Forex products.

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Merkinnät: so

SPX
[size=130%]15.1 - 2008

[size=100%]Speculative long opened at 815, if I am bit lucky we could have entire 1/5 intermediate impulse ready in here, wave 2 to follow and then abyss as W3.

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Merkinnät: SPX

SPX 832
[size=100%]It seems to be 50% correction on the table since entire upleg from the november 2008 bottom, it could offer some reversal, even meaningfull, but I have to confess that entire downleg from (940) january top looks alike very much impulse now also. SPX also made intra doublebottom today. Either way, we´re inside of W5 down or this is still just a part of W4 correction, but EW theory might have difficult times because considering this as part of W4, you would need to fill impulse for B wave - who knows, it´s not first time this would happen, but there´s really danger propability exist now that we just saw impulse wave 1/5 down at so far during january.

Eurodollar market seems to up and down movements with same 50% retracement level (still !) as it behaves current resistancei. It´s doing all kind of zigzag´s charts just below 1.3200, only one overthrow at so far as happened to the 1.3215 which was also 50% retracement from 1.3330 top.

I am afraid this zigzag can be too narrow to leave any position open without monitoring or working just with trailing stops, all which makes sense is to short 1.3210 (50%) and I missed it allready when trying to figure out actual EW path for it.

My best guess is that Asian markets will just keep this zigzag up and running several times without much actual progress at all. Perhaps tomorrow new and more clear setups appears.

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Merkinnät: SPX 832

Hmmmm,
[size=100%]As weird as it is, but with eurodollar you can trade opposite of trend - the detail you cannot do much with stockmarket. Eurodollar advanced again allmost over 100 pips to hit this 1.3200 (23.6% plus 61.8%) with that macd helped also with crude oil investories.

Logging out from the market. Might come back to see BeigeBook reactions if anything decent offered again for Asian night...

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Merkinnät: Hmmmm

No Mercy
[size=130%]14.1 - 2008

[size=100%]New day, new tricks.

That was short overnight party, it seems. EuroDollar is difficult to reach right waves, but on the other hand to trade is very profitable. My impulse was not correct but direction was (I don´t what was it), next move was not a-b-c to the downside either instead new impulse to the downside. I was bit too greedy with last setup, should exit in my previous chart top as I draw it, but waited a bit more last night as it started to correct allready got +50 pips.

I am waiting another entry setup, could trade with whis macd possible zigzag ie. 15-20 pips slots, but for bigger setup might need to wait. SPX looks also very negative for this morning (market has been open 30 minutes).

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Merkinnät: No Mercy

EuroDollar (Asian Night)
[size=180%]14.1 - 2009

[size=100%][size=130%]Like this chart now ? It did overthrow, 20 pips lower (not bad estimate) from such a huge chart, I was ready to expect much deeper overflow.....and so we´re flying....

1.3265 looks alike one ready impulse in chart, which could correct a-b-c for it.

SPX has rallied to the 874 at so far during aftermarket & asian hours.

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Merkinnät: EuroDollar (Asian Night)

EuroDollar
[size=180%]13.1 - 2008

[size=100%]1.3180 - got long, hopefully 23.6% offers some reversal later, this is also 61.8% retracement level since last impulse down from 1.4700. Sorry, no time to fill EW components to the chart now. If hourly or even daily chart would leave any doji´s in here - I do suppose it would be bullish sign. If not, there´s not many places exist anymore and we would be inside much bigger new impulse wave to the downside. At so far SPX found support yesterday from 850-860 area as mentioned before should be also bounce area IF reactionary waves upside keep coming. 858 was 38.2% if I do remember correctly. Chart below could offer some overthrow, big places usually allways builds island or any another lonely spike.

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Activision, ATVI
There could be something interesting happening with dailysignal for Activision, 2 doji´s placed while volume and macd gives some positive signals. Hopefully fullmoon market efect will be over soon. Seems to be kind wedge channel also. Unlike so many stocks, this has not even tried yet to breake SMA50 line.

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Merkinnät: Activision, ATVI

Another Ew - Fib Trader
[size=100%]Found very interesting site just accidently>

http://ew-indextrader.blogspot.com/

Btw. I deleted my EuroDollar Charts - Need to Re-Work as new impulse today changed it....

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Merkinnät: Another Ew - Fib Trader

StockMarket Closed, EuroDollar Target Met
[size=130%]Case Closed - allmost 240 pips advance (Mamma Mia !)

Might come with another chart tomorrow as jobless numbers plus ECB ratecut newsflow starts to approach. SPX 900 hold at so far even advanced just slightly after wallmart news hit, but oil traded slightly more down, it´s definetely impulse wave now also but it seems to trade now back pretty quickly - so, overall I am pleased my new year first chart setups. SPX and Oil likely lead more tomorrow.

Actually I shorted EuroDollar 1.3800 50 % Fibonacci also later, but took only 30 pips from it, currency market is definetely much more interesting core product by charting point of view for skillfull theorists, because there´s happening so much all the time - offering some real challenge !

If you look it now after it met 1.3800 it also retraced another 50% again and going up from there now.

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Merkinnät: EuroDollar Target Met, StockMarket Closed

EuroDollar

Third Chart as EuroDollar.

Dollar rally looks impulsive, but chart leaves pretty many options open in the long run (yes, 1 to 2 hours chart in forex business is really long run enough!) - but fibs keeps working if you trade anything between 20-80 pips ranges. EuroDollar has been leading indicator for stockmarket, if I did mark impulse wave correctly there´s more to come - impulses never come alone - this would indicate more troubles for stockmarket - however, I think this is good approach to fill intermediate chart on future as 1.4700 looks alike top for Euro at least now after 2008 year-end runway road from 1.2500.

It trades now just above 23.6% - easy part of this chart has been traded away allready and solution should come quickly in next few days - when something key places breakes in here, market runs with direction immediately.

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Merkinnät: eurodollar

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-4-6 08:45

StockMarket (SPX-500 Index)

[size=130%]
a-b-c-[size=180%]X[size=130%]-a-b-c and [size=180%]C Upwave Next.

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Merkinnät: StockMarket (SPX-500 Index)

Oil

[size=180%]5 or [size=180%]C UpWave Next.

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Merkinnät: Oil

Satyam, Intel, Alcoa.....
[size=180%]7.1 - 2009

[size=100%]If you read bloomberg news during today, flow was like directly from hell.

Yesterday it was reported also german business man suiciside who participated with brilliant investment bankers who widely sold idea to short WV, you might remember it rockted up several hundred percents after porchse took a stake.

Oil made a hard correction today, down over -10%. We had nice rally, I executed today my DRYS swing, it was actually down allready -10% before I opened US account, but it was up allready over 35% since picking, I think I am going to step a side for a few days and try to catch idea where we are going because as market takes over -3% downside movements, which is bigger than any reactionary upwave movement at so far there´s chance A=B=C meaning similiar size could of IV could be met allready. I don´t think C is finished yet, but it´s also possible it is. After all, we did rally a real lot allready with terrible news for several months, so corrections meanwhile are not surprizes. DRYS alone is more than tripled allready!

I was trying to figure out some currency market setups today, but at least now I am out still completely out of blue. 42.67 $ is 50% fib retracement for oil and that´s where it trades now, could be reversal point. I don´t personally like very much IV´s, that´s why a I am bit lazy with scanning stocks or even participating to the market.

Either the way, everyone who trade any IV waves are allways playing with fire in, it will be only matter of time when new impulse achieves us to lead down. for the same reason we do not have bullish patterns much available, just zigzag´s or reactionary upwaves - we´re living a bit boring times, but my best guess is that C of IV is still under progress - 940 top of it sounds a bit short for it.

There seems to be a real lot of Armstrong PHI model discussion going on nowdays and for good reason because this market has been terrifying exactly following his Head&Shoulder Charts, more terrifying is also his acccurate timing - this is another view for Elliott Wave Kontratieff and Benner Cycle theory approach. It´s interesting Armstrong study done with very young age has not been more analyzed by fib & ew theorists even it´s been there for years even with accurate dates.

You can read Armstrong theory pinpoints via ContraHour site, I suggest you spent some time with it, specially if you´re familiar with kontratieff & benner´s cycle theory>>>

http://www.contrahour.com/contrahour/2006/06/martin_armstron.html

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Merkinnät: Alcoa....., Intel, Satyam

Happy New Year 2009
[size=100%][size=180%]5.1 - 2009

Christmas is over, holiday is over, new year party is over - god damn, it´s hard to come back.

Looks alike IV / C / Complex ZigZag upwave started to progress as expected it to do for January. I have not much to add, everything is pretty much said allready on december - I do swing this month and as mentioned most bullish with Oil & Energy and I do have DIG calls and particularly smaller size stocks selection. I do avoid Dow components as January is generally best time for more smaller size stocks. Wherether you look between individual stocks you see plenty of IV bottom patterns which are ready to change cource.

Could take a week or two before I understand what´s has happened, since I am still completely out of blue after landing. Hopefully SPX will do a little more active participate during C upwave progress, last 2 months were indeed very passive one taking extreme deep retracements in every and each corner. I do keep SPX 1100 as fare target, then very ugly spring can come with V downside impulse.

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Merkinnät: Happy New Year 2009

SPX 875.75
[size=180%]23.12 - 2008
[size=100%]
Well, at so far it went up to 878 which is also 23.6% resistance. Then corrected 78.6% with expanding diagonal at 872 and now trying to hit 878 top again.

Nice small size rally or start of it, but so far it´s only technical bounce - we need to break this 23.6% fib soon to go more and it looks alike roof now. If we don´t breake this now, 50 % and/or 61.8% lows might be under work with 2 hours data chart and I am afraid they might. I am still a bit skeptical with this "wedge" pattern. Perhaps it´s time to lock up profits, leave the market and go to finish X-mas shopping project - it´s very boring ZigZag anyway. One minute SPX futures seems to build kind of bearish HS pattern now also. I do believe market willl build better long setup at some stage for / in January, but that entry setup we might need to wait.

Btw. did you noticed it was bearish HS actually SPX made in the very top of this diagonal, that one came down yesterday from right shoulder.

[size=180%]Enjoy your Holiday Season !

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Merkinnät: SPX 875.75

61.8% broken
At 859-863.

It didn´t hold, trades now at 854 (could be overthrow). SPX 850 (848) is next support. This might be a bit risky bet that we´re placing zigzag bottom and NOT placing any IV yet, but I´ll buy some from this 850-860 road to accept this risk for swing, targeting for january.

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Merkinnät: 61.8% broken

SPX, Double (or triple) ZigZag
22.12 - 2008

Lazy X-mas ZigZag Path & Chart. It looks pretty passive one, 61.8% lower point might come later today, 50% retracements mostly comes with more simple A-B-C formats.

Alternate or bigger view would be my B wave down as mentioned in previous post, but this could fill the same pattern just meaning more complex future - just with a different elliott wave view - when charting this 874 got broken allready to the downside (slightly), but mentioned waves could be the next upwaves after correction is down. Chart covers 30 minutes StockData.

(The Entire Upleg from SPX 7xx level could come as very complex ZigZag).

[size=130%]C Up
[size=130%]Z Up
[size=180%]X Up

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Merkinnät: Double (or triple) ZigZag

Season Greetings

[size=100%][size=180%]2009

It´s time to wish season greetings.

As investment banks tends to give targets - I´ll join the the group. Below is some targets I expect to see during first half of 2009. My best call for 2008 (plenty of them) was indeed oil & energy shorting roads from all the they way down from the very top covering allmost 78 individual oil charts for shorting, but I didn´t expect it to go below 50$ per barrell so easily but wasn´t bullish either, at least.

SPX expanded flat upwave IV Target 1080-1100 (winter 2009)
SPX expanded flat downwave V Target 380 (spring 2009)

For smaller timeframe I believe SPX might have now A wave of IV placed. If that´s the case B wave down might be coming (chart in previous post), but then C wave up again should be under progress to complete IV upwave.

(For SPX this is most simple A-B-C view one can possible see, but there´s much more IV wave scenarios exist, it could come even as double-tree or triple-tree for instance which would mean we do zigzag´s like past month for much, much longer between current SPX 700 bottom to SPX 1100).

Most commodites I expect start to get some passive reactionary wave uproads for january. Oil euro price is increasing allready, while dollar price has been more down. Metals likely will follow soon (sink, copper, iron, steel, nickel....), but likely all impulses down not seen yet as they tends to move with SPX where economy pinpoints.

Oil wave IV 78 $
Oil wave V 21 $ - (Longer term bullish with it up to the 300 $ (2011-2013))

I also expect to see British Pound to reach 1/1 paritet with Euro. Russian ruple will correct down 17-27%.

With printing money Eur-Usd target 2 .2700, long term view remains extremely bearish, but with SPX view it might miss one leg to touch 1.2100

Merry Christmas,

Market Geometry

Btw. Logo in picture belongs to beautifull US boat builder who makes boats also looks alike boats.

http://www.hinckleyyachts.com/

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Merkinnät: Season Greetings

German Dax
[size=100%]I checked this weird wedge SPX have as chart below pinpoints, DAX have exactly the same, but these does not fit for normal wave structure, there´s no single impulse inside on there. I suppose A wave can build this kind of diagonal, but wedge is wrong term in this case and EW does not approval this kind of pattern to be normal shorting road. It will be interesting how it´s going to solve itself with 2 hours data it might lead us for next week.

Amazing FX movements keeps coming, EuroDollar now down over 700 pips in 2 days after hitting head to the .618% retracement at 1.4720. Never underestima power of golden touch....there´s so many things happening now in this indursty; Japan zirp, US zirp, Norwegian rate cut of 1.75% from this week!, Russian ruple freefall, Polish Zloty, British Pound freefall, Swedish Kronor fall....likely next zirp will be Euro on next year.

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Merkinnät: German Dax

StockMarket + EuroDollar
[size=100%][size=180%]19.12 - 2008

Pretty interesting thing started to happen actually, just when it just looked alike too boring. Firstly, SPX still keeping offering these bear diagonal shorting setups time after time - which are my favorite one´s to drop down, even they could be opposite of main direction movements I like them as they come´s down reasonable faster that uproads, besides this last one was also doubletop.

They usually allways corrects 50% as did this one too, then they allways offer some long reversals.

More interesting was certainly Eur-Usd road which I pretty much missed, traded perhaps maximum 300 pips out from there, 61.8% retracement from 1.600 gave 1.4720 and today 500 pips correction for it, I think this is guinness record for one day movement. If you did swing these wave or one of them, you´re made a small fortune. So it was yesterday 500 pips movement to the other direction pretty extreme - certainly nice volatility in FX market !

However, first and bigger SPX diagonal gives some reason to stay alerted. There´s risk exist, this completed pattern could be one big "A" wave pattern. Unfortunately complete pattern is too complex to fit for waves for me, but at least very last part of double top looks mini size of bearish HS also and it´s corrected as did smaller wedge. What about this bigger one then ?

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Merkinnät: StockMarket + EuroDollar

1.4700
[size=100%]Approximately is 61.8% retracement for EuroDollar from 1.600.

Seems it finally offered some more sizable resistance.

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Merkinnät: 1.4700

Zirp rally
[size=100%]C/4 started to progress as expected. I traded break-out 38.2% with EuroDollar with Fed, but shorted it today as my 50% (1.4200) was met. Macd is falling very deeply while price is more conservative to come down (100 - 150 pips at so far) with it. This is likely another sign that main trend with eurodollar is other direction meaning weaker dollar - could come zigzag day today or even rest of the week. Commodites should start following dollar later also, getting stronger. Once this eurodollar 50% level will get breaken, stocks can run more.

I am offline from the marketplace most of december.

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Merkinnät: Zirp rally

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-4-6 08:46

SPX

[size=130%]10.12 - 2008, US Market Closed

[size=100%]Unfortunately, I accidently just noticed 60 minutes data pattern looks very much of it > Bear Diagonal...

If it´s going to retrace, size is 80 points. SPX 808 is 61.8% retracement for this pattern. 830 is 50%.[size=100%]

Very different view what I been looking at so far as A-B-C reactionary upwave, but if you look this particular shot again, it could be easily be also fully impulse which has ran it´s cource allready. W3 could fit previous top, as well as then a-b-c with W4 down, and finally last W5 up.

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Merkinnät: SPX

SP-500 - Some StockPatterns + Elliott Wave Projections
[size=100%][size=180%]7.12 - 2008

I need to confess your life who try to hold this market and ride up with it is not comfortable task, even it looks alike 718 offered that bottom for us, at least for now - because each waves and each up movements takes so deep retracements it allmost looks alike market is not going anywhere while terrible macro fundamendals slash market down seriouslytime after times. Last monday market bottom was 814 with SPX, 5 days later as this friday it was 817. That´s 3 points up progress in 5 days holding most uncomfortable & unpleasant riskparameter called time.

For traders this is paradise, deeper the movements are more clear they comes as there´s much less noise. Even, it´s not easy task to fill specific waves for them, patterns and fibs still works, market simple getting from very oversold to very overbought several times per week offering multiple entry and exit points for both directions - if you patient enough to wait your turn to make a new entry, should not be too difficult.

Here´s a few charts for the new week or next 2 weeks ahead, but not subminuette wave charts, so, these does not telling anything about tomorrow. If mainforce (wave) C comes valid now, "speed" and overall wave progress could come slightly better to fullfill IV upwave, but I would not certainly be surprized if this deep retracements seen at so far keep coming every day and every week, besides I never hold&swing any any IV waves - it´s one of the most boring trading wave you can get, but still doing some progress at this time because our impulses down were so huge one´s during the year.

Enjoy your trading, before Santa will come and watch carefully every bigger 50% retracements market offers - they usually offers reversal points, even when overlap occures.

[size=100%]I have no idea what is this very last impulse wave we got on friday, it kicked in after 50% retracement was met, just traded it based for my 15 minutes macd signal as it looked alike a-b-c also, but it ran to the 875 area and over again, which is massive bearish HS right shoulder (see my older post charts). If market leaves this pattern now, perhaps at this time we could be lucky and it retraced allready, but at so far this pattern has been one of the best shorting setup in all timeframs and it appears often also. If it´s part of the right shoulder, we have very serious troubles ahead. Which is the case, we´ll see on next week, but my best guess is as mentioned in charts we work with C upwave, but I have absolute zero positions to hold it. Waiting another signal & retracement from market, besides this very last powerfull upwave should easily retrace also, even it looks alike impulse wave.

[size=100%]Btw. one nice thing to have a blog is that peoble usually post if anything interesting new websites hit the area. Usually they´re don´t anything interesting or unique, but someone might like this one - if you don´t have any financial software for most basic tasks stock scanning you might like to test this>

http://www.dojispace.com/

[size=100%]No register requirement either, seems to work just like that. Webmaster seems to forget fill shorting scanning plus fibonacci issues also - the most important thing which works in this business like a train, but after all - for quick very basic scanning if you´re happy enough with daily signal data seems to be fare enough.

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Merkinnät: SP-500 - Some StockPatterns + Elliott Wave Projections

Well,
That was quick ! It went to 44,50 $, then freefall again ;)

We´ll see if Merrill Lynch is correct and Oil will reach 25 $ on next year ! Hugo Chavez will have pretty tough times ahead as well as Mr. Putin with that price!

Enjoy your weekend, if US market will offer something interesting today when it opens, I might come with chart - if not, enjoy your weekend!

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Merkinnät: Well

European Morning
[size=100%]5.12-2008

TrailingStop Covered EuroDollar short position at 1.2745 by over night. No clear setup enough for re-consider, but I think it´s at zigzag mode.

Thank You Eur-Usd. We really need to see crude oil reversal soon, it cannot fall without reversals at all placed. 43 $ plus those pennis sounds amazing price. 15 Minute macd has done allready pretty nice rollover, I think today could be Oil bullish day.

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Merkinnät: European Morning

Another Entry
[size=100%]US market closed. Same old, same old - usually when you do short major size fibonacci with EuroDollar first one allways blows out with stoploss, but I allways make new entry and certainly it finally started to fall, even needed to wait allmost all day with it as 1.2800 offered some shorter timeframe support before it was broken.

SPX bearish Head&Shoulder chart I mentiond somewhere in lower posts department was placed today, market build that right shoulder at 875, twice actually making doubletop for it while 15 minutes macd started to fall in last 24 hours. I don´t know if this HS pattern will be under progress now, but if it is, we will go much deeper on next week as it´s very large pattern at this time.

SPX 837 is .618% fib support for this new downwave, one snapback movement from there likely ahead, but then the rest should follow - I´ll keep the same Eur-Usd short position by overnight. Haven´t decided exactly yet where to cover it.

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Merkinnät: Another Entry

EuroDollar
Eur-Usd, going short once and if target price will be reached. Might be that car makers will get their money and bull is coming, but I allways short 50% retracements.

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Merkinnät: eurodollar

EuroYen
4.12 - 2008 Morning, it seems EuroYen has been falling more during rest of the night even more, so, I suppose this was true bear diagonal (even it looked a bit weird). I removed my stops at this morning to 117.50 level, it if breakes it upside - profits taken home in there, if it falls I´ll let it fall - as it looks alike after all countries made a rate cut.

Thank You EuroYen !!!!!!!!!!

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Merkinnät: EuroYen

EuroYen
[size=100%]4.12 - 2008

Asian night, shorted EuroYen at 118,72 as it build so beautifull bear diagonal and bear HS above of it - hopefully someone on there is with me with this one, but perhaps this might build something bigger later on, if we get that 50 % we could have inverse HS - which would be extremely bullish pattern. Chrisis, I love this currency paritet (it track´s also stockmarket very closely).[size=100%] Simple a-b-c down, first a down, then b wave up from .618, then c wave down....

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Merkinnät: EuroYen

Still Expanding
[size=180%]3.12 - 2008

[size=100%]Noap, no crash, just average down, then up again - higher. Pretty deep retracements inside of this triangle what every upmovement takes. Perhaps, this is it. We start getting expanding triangle channel as upwave, because I am not coming with you - I am going to subdivide to EuroYen trading for this month.

Enjoy, but take care that you won´t be there when final E will be placed, when it´s placed I will be there then ;). I think VIX is the best target to EW chart now, because it does have a fully impulse which could correct A-B-C down. Sorry, I just don´t like non impulsive expanding channels, if Oil will join to the club, then I might re-consider, but at so far it´s still landing, even 50 $ didn´t offer much support for it.

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Merkinnät: Still Expanding

SPX-500 - Elliott Wave Count
[size=100%][size=180%]3.12 - 2008

I know many expext and hope market to take snapback rally for Christmas for SPX 1000 or even to the better side as Vix gave extreme bearish signals reaching allmost one hundred. We have alternates and we could see A-B-C up wave as as scenario to fullfill IV for SPX1000, but as monday sold down relatively strongly & violently I started to gave today another look for it, after all it was just one of these same bearish HS patterns which EuroYen and EuroDollar has also recently offered quite often, but pretty strong - It argues it have to be impulse wave ?

After stockmarket crashed at this monday market took then 50% correction and bought immediately when US closed, it was SPX 814. It make it twice creating doublebottom again on the next day ie. today as 817 and once again market bought it and once again it was HS pattern which dropped market to this level. Then with full impulse wave making relative strong snapback rally for SPX 850 level. More important information however was 50% level itself, because this fib retracement has been in the most strong short and long setup for this market for decades in all wave time formats starting from subminuettes all the way up.

So, here it is, if this comes true - Houston, we have a serious problem if I am right this one. Likely I will update this one tomorrow or at least before ECB will release ratecut on thursday - hopefully, FX world express more clear setup just before. All the other countries like UK and Australia cut allready 0.75 points and that´s likely what ECB will do as well, but chart might want to tell us something before that happens.

So, if you see crash tomorrow, start looking these charts - if you won´t see any crash, then you can still look at these charts and make a point > nice charts, but wrong call.

Oscilllators are however relatively neutral in all timeframes, not extreme setups or support available from there. Either the case, I feel this expanding triangle to be very interesting to see how it´s going to solve itself - you don´t see it often with SPX ! However, after waves, we have soon (again) one bearish HS as one chart below pinpoints. Timeframes with charts below are down from 2 hours to 15 minutes.

99 % of the hard pro technical folks are bullish now in this indursty, but there´s also very simple guideline of the EW theory I just created, the side which ran faster is usually correct and with this one I mean this monday plunge. Do you really think most strong downside day of the multimonth plunge is end of this when it´s not even new low - don´t know, but one need pretty good imagination if you try to fit that for B wave for example...let´s hope it´s more clear tomorrow - shall we....

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Merkinnät: SPX-500 - Elliott Wave Count

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-4-6 08:47

Art and Money
[size=130%]22.11 - 2008

Saturday ChartArt & Elliott Wave Session with SP-500 Index.

(60 Minutes and 15 Minutes Charts). Possible bottom approaching.[size=130%] With VIX Macd is falling allready and not following the price up. Either the case, I assume we take both of those IV´s now (one of them is down and another is up based for charts below, but then the rest should follow as final wave V down and this is could be ready for more steady bounce (not just a one day)).

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Merkinnät: Art and Money

Complex Wave 4
20.11 - 2008

Market has been up and down all week, at the end of day not so serious new lower lows found yet while SPX keep up and running between 800-900 road despite the negative performance. Related for lower post I believe this W4 is complex one, trying to flll it, but these waves are not easy to follow, likely it´s either double to triple. When it´s finished the rest down should follow. If more clear setup will come, I will post shots for it. Could be that market want to close this month derivatives first before it´s will give free road to go.

Besides of that I have birthday today & going pub, market cannot take serious progress without me (I hope).

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Merkinnät: Complex Wave 4

SPX, My Kamikaze - Sepaku Wave is here ?
[size=100%]Sunday, 16.11 - 2008

Please visualize alternate scenario as A-B-C because next movement will be massive. Either the case, after skewed triangle was executed down last friday it was either B wave meaning market started to work with corrective C wave. This is bullish scenario after C would be fully retraced (likely .618%), but if we just entered to the new impulse wave SPX will find it´s way below 800 very quickly (next week).

If I have time on next week I´ll post additional charts for this setup (if they changes middle of the day, likely I don´t have time to update), oscillators + fibs will confirm when waves changes and I certainly will trade these. Eur-Usd build skewed (overlapped) bearish triangle on friday in one minute chart confirmed that we will subdive and certainly we did.

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Merkinnät: My Kamikaze - Sepaku Wave is here ?, SPX

18 Days Minute Chart of Eur-Usd
Nice wave IV rally. Ugh, hard day behind for me, my stoploss occured when SPX 838 was broken with intratrade, then I also missed the ultimate bottom too, but I understood very quickly when SPX started to rally back that this could come huge now, thanx very much again to eurodollar charts, fixed damaged + made decent profit going long with it 3 times.

It´s a bit difficult to post setups as they come and go, 20-40 pips movement are very nice to do, not too fast running, but a few hours swings. Created chart below just now, there should be at least one shorting setup also meaning possibe wave 1 of 4 at least with 61.8%. It could breake later, but they never go directly throw in first drive. SPX chart is very similiar, likely. Note that this is only last part of impulse finished today, this IV wave can come huge (or then not) - either the case, it´s only IV for me.

Btw this complete chart is exactly similiar as august stockmarket rally day had.

What do trade, here´s my favorite one´s (which I allways confirm with oscillators plus fibs>

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Merkinnät: 18 Days one Minute Chart of Eur-Usd

EUR-USD plus USA-CAD
[size=130%]Monday, 10.10-2008

[size=100%]ZigZags days after days.......market getting nowhere. US Market closed with EuroDollar just above or 1.2700 horizontal triangle again. At the same time SPX 905 fibonacci support was touched again making late night rally. Today I shorted smaller bear diagonal inside from this EuroDollar triangle, but as bigger picture presents it should hold .618% retracement meaning we could go slightly up again, but if broken to the downside it could suggest a-b-c-d-e impulse where last e would be next candidate and in this case we would be dealing with new impulse wave. Either the case, pattern is starts to reach it limit soon meaning resolving this pattern should be this week issue. US Stockmarket will follow this pattern closely when the breake occures. UsaCad shot below also as HS pattern. (CadUsa makes it inverse).

Beautifull market this Forex Indursty, there´s real lot of things to trade every day and night & much less noise versus for stock market.

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Merkinnät: EUR-USD plus USA-CAD

SPX 900 with Eur-Usd 1.2700
[size=100%]7.11 - 2008 US Market closed. After 2 days of decent selling program I start to feel slightly bullish in here again. Should 905 hold - might go long for a few weeks from here. Smells like 897 low n the late trading was kind of shake away movement, but we see does this setup hold now tomorrow. Should it hold rest of the week sould be bullish. Good Day in FX market after United Kingdom and ECB did a rate cut and shame on you Russians - while the all world joined to congratulate US, ex. KGB boys behaves like teenage boys. Your speake including information of new missiles placed in Stalingrad got a good laugh in Europe. Excuse me, but may I let you know WWII ended allready some time ago....

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Merkinnät: SPX 900 with Eur-Usd 1.2700

Obama Wins, EuroDollar Sinks
[size=180%]Thank You Obama & Congratulation !

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Merkinnät: EuroDollar Sinks, Obama Wins

Obama Vote
[size=100%]US Market closed. My virtual vote goes for Obama (even we don´t have rights to vote next US president from european side). He´s younger, he doesn´t attack & start new oil wars, he seems to be more sympathy as a real human. Looking from here as another side of Atlantic Ocean US has pretty much lost everything else including their trustworthy & respect of another nations. It was political suicide to loose this much with so short period. This negative development has been very fast speed process including a serious numbers of mistakes, should be guinness record. All is left anymore is US military world power. It took even from Stalin years to destroy Russian and they still has not covered - country is complete mess. Perhaps too many thinks to fix for one man or parlament now in US also.

I am sorry I said this, but looking back last 6-7 years I don´t like much the progress which direction US has been heading. It´s been basically jumping from one disaster to another every year, but I do love your financial markets & country side is very beautifull in US, specially Colorado, Wyoming, Montana, Maine, Vermont and New Hampshire are my favorites. Chicago is my city in US, used to jump there all and back for years. The good news is that at least is fair election competition and better wins, in Russian election system have only one side of paper - if you write wrong numbers it´s not going to counted.

It seems market gave it´s vote today also for Obama, however I am not much buying because I never swing any wave IV´s not matter which size they are - they´re too diffucult to fit for waves and progressing of IV usually include lot of pullbacks, but with this Vix it can run for expanded flat wave as bookchart below shows, for this reason I am pretty much at the trading mode - it can go and rally even for christmas but it can also go without me, because this correction is not over yet for me and I do enjoy now much more Forex world. I used to swing a lot of VIX rallies in early of 2000´s bearmarket, but for some reason I don´t like this one anymore. Should I change my opinion or if going short more long timeframe, will write about it then. I had difficult to go long also with last winter after january-2008 wave came down because I knew next up will be only reactionary wave - this is a bit same situation again, it´s great wave to trade, but I don´t like to hold it much.

Going to trade Far-East when it´s open, might update those charts below later.

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Merkinnät: Obama Vote

USD-JPY
[size=100%]4.11 - 2008 I have been trading US Dollar / Japan Yen for all night with reasonable good success, it seems to work well with myt EW counts, here´s a few of them. If you take those lines we might be dealing also with bearish wedge in here, but please use your own indicator package - this is far more danger market as stock exchanges because of massive leverage. Charts offered below are 5, 15 and 60 minutes charts.

My russians programmers seems to have good fan in US index market ;).

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Merkinnät: USD-JPY

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-4-6 08:48

3.10 - 2008 - Sunday, Relaxing
[size=100%]Well, well. Month RollOver and Weekend allmost over.

I have absolute no any setups, not a single one for next week as I didn´t do & check any charts during the weekend. Extreme neutral now with SPX also as well as Eur-Usd, it seems Japan is breaking it as bullish cup & handle in 30 minutes chart (10 days) and it start to look zigzag a-b-c- letter´s to the upside now as one alternate scenario, besides it´s US election time effect time.Yen crosses seems to do same, well HS can breake in theory point of view to the both directions.

Someone might start to speculating soon with new russian aviation company which is going to be merged to be one giant collecting several existing smaller aviation companies together. Russians basically merge every aviation company exist in their country. It´s going to be bigger than Aeroflot. Russian Airway Co. is aviation museum, they need to order new planes - propably all of them.

Btw. Take a look at this one, did these Russians broke the code of the universum or is it just a luck ? I think I am going to try it, they have 13 points SXP stoploss, which is pretty tight in this market environment.http://eminiforecaster.com/videos/gline1031/gline1031.htm?a_aid=ee6ff7da

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Merkinnät: 3.10 - 2008 - Sunday, Relaxing

SPX

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Merkinnät: SPX

31.10 - 2008 US Afternoon
[size=100%]Now, that was nice, I start to really love FX world - it´s so technical environment !

Here´s new chart for next setup as mentioned earlier what´s going to happen, building massive bearish HS !!!

Those both D´s should be on the progress, 1,2820 (those fibs 38.2% and 50%) should offer shorting road again, my stops will be placed at 50% also (perhaps 10 pips more for throw-over situation).

It´s possible this bear setup will be build for next week, wave D usually tends to take more complex mode. This is pretty extreme bearish setup when white D is placed !

Have a good weekend !

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Merkinnät: 31.10 - 2008 US Afternoon

31.10 - 2008 Good Morning US, EURUSD
It was B wave, all my orders filled & executed automatically while sleeping !

1.2820 as larger expanding bearish triangle is now one short setup, another one is 1.2755 which should be smaller expanding bearish triangle channel, just now building another bearish HS pattern in there and in much larger view eur-usd is building also bigger bearish HS as was the previous one I posted - it´s getting wider (=more bearish).

1.2760 - 1.2765 as shorting setup now in smaller expanding triangle should be accurate. See my previous posts & charts where this is explained with more details - setup has not changed anywhwere at all, it´s just progressing.

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Merkinnät: 31.10 - 2008 Good Morning US

Eur-Usd
[size=100%]Setups for shorter (nanominuette) timeframe program:

(Farm and Planned for possible complex wave 2 zigzag view or B wave)

1)

Long entry: 1.2780
Stoploss: 1.2767
Profit Exit: 1.2855

2)

Long entry: 1.2815
Stoploss: 1.2805
Profit Exit: 1.2845

3)

Long entry: 1.2791
Stoploss: 1.2783
Profit Exit: 1.2857

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Merkinnät: Eur-Usd

31.10 - 2008 Asian Market Opens
[size=100%]There we go ladies and gentleman.......should know this IV wave is going to be as large as it technically can by theory point of view - perfect touch and shaken 38.2% retracement. FX market seems have behaviour to shake all stoplosses & overthrow these levels, I haven´t notice same behaviour in stockmarket. FX is very, very cold place, you can´t actually take position well on time like in stockmarket - you need to go and hit very exact entry point and this is big change & impact for me, with daily signal you would kill in here 7 minutes or sometimes seconds. Beautifull HS pattern, would you agree ? [size=100%]Watch that 61.8% retracement for possible B, because if it would come & breake, I would be more bullish also with stockmarket on future...[size=100%]together with this bear diagonal not bad setup after all. If you look closely what we broke at so far, it looks very much as 1-2-3-4-5 subminuette count. If that´s the case this lower 38.2% fib pretty much fills one bigger timeframe as W1 - meaning reactionary W2 could follow, but if this setup is now correct by main point of view, there´s much worse troubles ahead also for stockmarkets as well as for eurodollar, because next would be impulse W3 down after W2 is finished. [size=100%]If you do only scalping these charts have no much help for you, with minium my target points 600 pips lower, still........

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Merkinnät: 31.10 - 2008 Asian Market Opens

30.10 - 2008 EuroDollar, Asian Market
[size=100%]2008 Eur-Usd Fib Calculation for StockMarket BearRoad
[size=100%]From 1.6000 To 1.3900 = 2100 PipS = Wave A

From 1.3900 To 1.4900 = 1000 Pips = Wave B

From 1.4900 To 1.2350 = 2555 Pips = Wave C (At so Far !)
[size=100%]Size of C ? >>>

Multiply Wave A with 1.2700 = 2667 Pips > gives target at > 1.2133

Multiply Wave A with 1.3800 = 2900 Pips > gives target at > 1.1900

Multiply Wave A with 1.6182 = 3400 Pips > gives target at > 1.1400
[size=100%]Additional Approvement> Oil 8 years chart retraced 61.8%, after touching it with 61.8 $ (price just happened to be there also) today it rallied strongly. As 61.8% correction is usually Wave 3 bottom, we´re likely dealing with Wave 4 reactionary upwave. When it´s finished rest should come.

I believe this is very high propability setup that we´re still landing and we´re landing hard to new lower lows. Plus everything to the upside basically is only IV corrective waves with every products. Risk stands in here withthis triangle, I guarantee for you it´s not wedge, it´s just a "flag" triangle, should mean wave 3 bottom position and looks alike A-B-C-D-E corrective letter as IV on the progress and we´re inside of where last E wave allready, when finished big wave V plunge should follow.

This US Dollar rally missing fifth wave and in this market it´s going to be small wave, should it stop before 38.2% we will see (actually allready tried to short 50% fib, but blowed it out with my stoplosse).

I do keep working with this same chart (same as yesterday posted, but updated), because if it this is the case as I believe SPX/QQQQ and Stock Exchanges will Crash to the new Low.

So, below is SPX 2 hours chart, it depends from here now, is this triangle W3 bottom position which it broke allready 2 days ago and how far will that W4 go before turning it´s the issue, it looks impulsive ?[size=100%] Perhaps it´s good to wait now as commodites lead the market with that crude before trying to short.

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Merkinnät: 30.10 - 2008 EuroDollar, Asian Market

Newer Posts Older Posts Home

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-4-6 08:50

EuroDollar 29.10 - 2008
Just decided to post one of my Eur-Usd chart - very updated. This is not completely picture but should have details enough to point out some future possibilites plus explaining some paste movements. My old readers will spot immediately my favorite stock patterns from Bulkowski Bible and plenty of them. I am big fan of ending diagonals, specially if there´s 2 of them meaning last fifth wave building it´s own as it does in this case.

It´s correcting wave IV now, when it´s finished wave V to new high likely coming behind the corner. Together with that idea we should see that SPX 1000 also as corrective, violence untrending directional wave IV. Important detail is that this is not end of rally for US dollar / falling Euro, just one part of it, there should be more to come. Read my previously posted targets for if interested.

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Merkinnät: EuroDollar 29.10 - 2008

Frontline / Oil
[size=100%]Swimming with fundamendals, i[size=100%]s Frontline getting too cheap ?
[size=100%]Below is one of my older post bringing back to daylight again, but just noticed something interesting.

Frontline, it´s very volalitet oil shipping stock as all commodity and oil stocks are nowdays, range alone from friday 30-34 $, but looking it´s dividend history this stocks yields 39% with PE-3 ! Unsane, with EPS 10 $. Certainly market is pricing allready the fact they will cut dividend to be less on future, but with gross margin 59% this will be my choice. I trade it a lot, but with these numbers + with an idea oil retraced allready 50% correction I think this is good bet to add as portofolio holdings also.

Of cource this is history information and conference call on november brings new dividend numbers, but I don´t think it´s basic fundamendals could drop down much more and we´re approaching the situations this kind of high yield history will attract the market. If this market is going to take even temporary multimonths reversal leverage the Frontline stock offers is trendemous, in fact much higher that any QQQQ stock offers. It´s pretty much corrected the same 50% from the top indicating it´s beta is very much 1 to 1 compared for oil price. Wherever you look between the stocks there´s so much risks exist related for consumers, perhaps oil will be my top choice.
[size=100%]My SPX target drops to 690-740 area where I believe market bottom will be placed, it likely means eurodollar is going to reach 1.2700-1.300, perhaps even slightly more, when we´re there I will buy this one with many different contracts. If this low comes FRO might offer anything between 21-27 $ as an buy zone. Will give then another eye to it´s chart. However, as oil started to take some steps up allready and likely more coming on next week - this stock will be angry behaviour to the upside also, but I suggest to wait a bit more if looking long term investment with it.
[size=100%]I am still expecting to see more snapback rally days on next week / market going higher despite the high standard deviation, but I am likely out from there well on time, then the real "Das Boot U-96"abyss coming.... personally I believe we are going to see serious domino efect with hedge & leveraged funds, which brings hard pressure power to all markets. It could be funeral for a few stockfunds also.

Original/Previous Oil & Frontline Charts as setup was build>

Possible double correction (a-b-c-X-a-b-c) with Frontline. All markets volalitet are still mad so please note that this can appear as triple correction also, but OIH will likely solve this.

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Merkinnät: Frontline / Oil

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-4-6 08:52

EuroDollar 29.10 - 2008
Just decided to post one of my Eur-Usd chart - very updated. This is not completely picture but should have details enough to point out some future possibilites plus explaining some paste movements. My old readers will spot immediately my favorite stock patterns from Bulkowski Bible and plenty of them. I am big fan of ending diagonals, specially if there´s 2 of them meaning last fifth wave building it´s own as it does in this case.

It´s correcting wave IV now, when it´s finished wave V to new high likely coming behind the corner. Together with that idea we should see that SPX 1000 also as corrective, violence untrending directional wave IV. Important detail is that this is not end of rally for US dollar / falling Euro, just one part of it, there should be more to come. Read my previously posted targets for if interested.

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Merkinnät: EuroDollar 29.10 - 2008

Frontline / Oil
[size=100%]Swimming with fundamendals, i[size=100%]s Frontline getting too cheap ?
[size=100%]Below is one of my older post bringing back to daylight again, but just noticed something interesting.

Frontline, it´s very volalitet oil shipping stock as all commodity and oil stocks are nowdays, range alone from friday 30-34 $, but looking it´s dividend history this stocks yields 39% with PE-3 ! Unsane, with EPS 10 $. Certainly market is pricing allready the fact they will cut dividend to be less on future, but with gross margin 59% this will be my choice. I trade it a lot, but with these numbers + with an idea oil retraced allready 50% correction I think this is good bet to add as portofolio holdings also.

Of cource this is history information and conference call on november brings new dividend numbers, but I don´t think it´s basic fundamendals could drop down much more and we´re approaching the situations this kind of high yield history will attract the market. If this market is going to take even temporary multimonths reversal leverage the Frontline stock offers is trendemous, in fact much higher that any QQQQ stock offers. It´s pretty much corrected the same 50% from the top indicating it´s beta is very much 1 to 1 compared for oil price. Wherever you look between the stocks there´s so much risks exist related for consumers, perhaps oil will be my top choice.
[size=100%]My SPX target drops to 690-740 area where I believe market bottom will be placed, it likely means eurodollar is going to reach 1.2700-1.300, perhaps even slightly more, when we´re there I will buy this one with many different contracts. If this low comes FRO might offer anything between 21-27 $ as an buy zone. Will give then another eye to it´s chart. However, as oil started to take some steps up allready and likely more coming on next week - this stock will be angry behaviour to the upside also, but I suggest to wait a bit more if looking long term investment with it.
[size=100%]I am still expecting to see more snapback rally days on next week / market going higher despite the high standard deviation, but I am likely out from there well on time, then the real "Das Boot U-96"abyss coming.... personally I believe we are going to see serious domino efect with hedge & leveraged funds, which brings hard pressure power to all markets. It could be funeral for a few stockfunds also.

Original/Previous Oil & Frontline Charts as setup was build>

Possible double correction (a-b-c-X-a-b-c) with Frontline. All markets volalitet are still mad so please note that this can appear as triple correction also, but OIH will likely solve this.

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Merkinnät: Frontline / Oil

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-4-6 08:54

15.10-2008, European Morning, nice correction
Market came down (as expected) to correct a bit last 2 days rally. Since volatility is so high I do bring my decision now from from Oil / Currency department instead from index markets like SPX or QQQQ.

Eur-Usd holds 1.3400. It was very likely my big size EW C wave from 1.4700. Oil is again 78 $ which is decent technical platform (if it´s not breaken). Eur-Usd 1.3600 is another strong EW case now. Eur Usd build bearish diagonal last winter between 1.55 - 1.60. From there first wave down as wave 1 to 1.55. then back again somewhere 1.58 as wave 2.

All the rest down from there (with euro) is part of C wave. This C wave was broken to fully impulse all the way to 1.3400 offering W3 in 1.37 and W5 bottom in 1.34. If this wave is really C, not W3 and ff this scenario is correct with primary wave degree eurodollar might be working with movement close to the 1.37 again.

This setup force me to look strong shortterm rally with commodity sectory, even very shortterm one. It´s obvisious that this market is more tradable than fore-ever holdings in here, with this high standard deviation I cannot tell exact retracement MittalSteel chart below could take, to put it simple and short way I am looking a-b-c correction down to fill possible wave 2. This stock is extremely high beta (high risk), emerging markets stocks trade basically X3 faster than US steel for example - there´s no tricks with this. Be aware that this W2 can even retrace 100% going all the way down to 24 $, but generally 38.2% and 50% what I will be looking for. But be also aware that I usually use 90/10 and 80/20 strategy meaning I have my protections to sleep deeper and better nights.

Intel reported yesterday, I traded it as volatility long. Bought both, ITM puts and calls on the morning, sold them in last hour with 12% profit. Options market has locked Intel price to trade range 15-17 $ opening a lot of contracts for both of those strike prices. This means, it should not go in shortterm (2 weeks) below 15 $ anymore, but it also indicates it might have difficulties to stay above 17 $, but this is just options market current opinion - nothing else.

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Merkinnät: Nice correction

European Morning, 14.10-2008
Rally on the screen after US reaction. As far as I do remember every rally from significant VIX bottoms usually gives 2 days, then serious consolidation ahead.. I do count last friday as rallyday also since it came so much up from bottom +12%.

There´s significant risk on the market still that we plunge, still. If this market is goes and retrace ie. 38.2% now - we could end for significant minus percentages. It if comes with 50% we can toward down even -12%

I don´t flag yet yesterday as trend change yet, but it´s obvisious sign market is building a bottom at least. I do expect this bottom building to be very different kind of as any other earlier market bottoms we had saw during 2000-2008. Macro and fundamendal risks are much more with us now as with previous bottoms. This market is driven not by stocks, but CD and Corporate Bond markets - unfortunately there has not been dramatic change yet at all there, yesterday market reaction did not work, at least not yet.

Take a look at TED spread, it screams still that situation is not over.

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Merkinnät: 14.10-2008, European Morning

10.10-2008, US market closed,
I was 2 days off from the market, went bookstores & some relax in the city, but I am planning to come back to market tomorrow. It seems it sold more quikcly as I expected and VIX hit historical top for close.

The reason, why I am coming back this quickly is oil, wtic 85 $ is here and XLE 50% correction is here, XTO -50% correction is here. With this idea, I expect one another hard plunge, but turning long from there. I have one qqqq straddle open, will execute puts from it. Tomorrow with charts.

After one stoploss, I try to find another bottom is my mind and still pretty significant, but before that we need to come more down also. There´s for you one undergroud chart I did on last weekend (didn´t published it), but of cource it did not hit my pricetarget as 5$ instead turned right before it, damn. However, it might tells us it´s own story about commodity market now where we are.

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Merkinnät: 10.10-2008, US market closed

Saturday Evening Charts
5.10 - 2008

Some saturday drawings. I want to show you an ALTERNATE scenario what would happen if SPX would fail to hold .618 retracement, which would breake us not anymore for A-B-C correction view instead opening us to fully impulse mode. If you look at that SPX chart closely you should also see that what I draw would not be even final bottom, just temporary. At the end of the day it would be bottom for only W3 and W5 would take is deeper at some day (2009) even without extended impulse.

This is not exact count done with millimeter additional wave checking, but it still makes sense in every manner EW theory offers to look different propabilites. Also, JP Morgan does not look nice or healthy in here at all - changed opinion with it now completely. I mentioned once to use 90/10 strategy and mean it. It also makes sense in every manner in this market environment if you make more serious movements & long entry at the wrong place. If you enter long at the wrong place or ending completely wrong count that small insurance is paying a fortune for you even with being wrong.

Don´t be surprized if I hit during the rest of the weekend a lot of charts to this blog. I haven´t change my opinion what´s going to happen next (related previous posts), but I don´t want to be blind either - allways visualize the alternate scenario(s). But I have no problems to find still plenty of bearish charts from this market.

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Merkinnät: Saturday Evening Charts

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-4-6 08:54

Weekend ChartPoint
[size=130%]Early Sunday Morning with Charts

Some PinPoints;

- That RIMM was perfect technical case

- NVDA final bottom should be ready

- Oil correction is over

- Nokia is Bearish as well as most MobilePhones stocks

- BioStocks plus Some Tech´s looks to poison up for X-mas

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Merkinnät: Weekend ChartPoint

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-4-6 08:57

26.9-2008, US market open, midday
Closed OIH shorts. My work argues this wave might be ready to turn now, but I am leaving now and closing my short position. I might be off-line fully week on next week.

Have a good weekend.

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Merkinnät: 26.9-2008, midday, US market open

26.9-2008 Small Bear Diagonal
European Morning,

After yesterday rally QQQQ build during last 2 day small bearish diagonal, which I believe is pretty final solution if that fitth wave of fifth wave of fifth wave is coming to end this bear market. But I didn´t short it, if that´s the case hopefully it will give some negative impact for oil. I am short with OIL, but just slightly.

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Merkinnät: 26.9-2008 Small Bear Diagonal

Alternate Scenarios
25.9 - 2008 European Morning,

With this high VIX it´s easy to determine this market moves like mad. GE profit warning hit the screen at this morning while US premarket is still deeply sleeping, just after a few hours later crashbank news.

For me this setup is unclear, with subminuette waves if last week thursday&friday spike was wave 4, then this week selling at so far has been wave 1/5 and corrected as wave 2/5 yesterday. This is bearish scenario because it would mean next wave should be 3/5 down.

However, last week reaction seems to be for me too impulsive and it´s also far too strong to consider it as wave 4, also it´s construction is not corrective, it´s impulsive.

With bullish scenario last week rally was first impulsive wave up (where at leasts subminuette 1,2 and 3 occured allready), then corrected during this week, monday and thuesday marking minuette wave 4 and possibility also subminuette wave 4 - with this week lack of panic & easy and relax selling this could made sense also.

However, if this would be subminuette wave 2 what we saw, we would have also massive upside movement ahead. My long term EW counts suggest that SPX 1100 & QQQQ 37-38 touch and it´s also bear for oil, but I am not going to follow & hunt that SPX&QQQQ target anymore - W3´s are the one´s I hunt and SPX W3 ended at 1134 allready while QQQQ did the same with 39.50, leaving risk of truncated fifth wave to the market. With EW, never hunt any fifth waves, you´re the last guy in the train if you do, intraday trading might have different story.

After trading, I had been buying recent plunges, but one might consider 90/10 portofolio options strategy which means 10% protection buying index puts or bear ETF. With this high volalitet straddles makes sense also. This market might be soon at culmination point to hit that historical high VIX 50 corner, which we had saw several times in last 8 years and it was allways a bottom.

Either direction one do, stay protected at least a bit using any deltaneutral strategy, it makes your life much easier, market might have difficulties to decide any direction from here and volalitet to come even worse. GE profit warning & RubbishBank news will have strong effect today. QQQQ closed yesterday with doji candle, which indicates bit movement ahead again.

All assetts moving now very quickly, not only stocks. Also interest rates, FX, commodites, index.......

Current Status: Buying possible Bottom.

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Merkinnät: Alternate Scenarios

Something Subminuette XLF Impulsive
Last 2 days has not have much power full sell anymore, while market has came down. Either it´s that part of that fifth wave I had been expected to happen or wave construction has fully changed, but financials might have their own wave life and different EW structure now. In theory divergence between stocks should be huge at this stage anyway. Goldman, Morgan Stanley and XLF charts below.

I have absolute no idea what´s the bigger degree EW where these patterns belongs, but for subminuette as daily movements seems to makes some sense.

Solar stocks looks bearish for me and they certainly follows oil.....JASO or LDK to mention just a few.......

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Merkinnät: Something Subminuette XLF Impulsive

Oil
23.9 - 2008 European Morning,

XTO and XLE seems for me to have bear wedge in 10 days charts, it´s not huge, but be carefull. Oil seems to have gracy legs now, I wonder if 127 $ fib roof keeps it below. This oil spike came pretty fast and yesterday something weird happened while it spiked 20 $ up.

Risk to operate now in the market is pretty high. Yesterday selling was not huge & panic for me anymore, it came down pretty easily. I would not call this any huge selling program, for me market just corrected more last week rally. However, if that W4 is really W4 with SPX 1264, that fifth wave might be on the progress now. It will be interesting to see how last july bottom SPX 1200 behaves now.

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Merkinnät: Oil

QQQQ
Friday, Midday, Market Open,

This is it, the pattern I mean. Lower you can see previous QQQQ which started W3 plunge.
It came down to 39.50 and now up again allmost to the same level, 44.00 which is resistance now and possible W4 end.

I don´t know is this going to work, but my stoploss levels is 44.20, if market stays below today - I am going to swing this for next week also and I do have position size with this to wait possible W5 (which is very powerfull wave also). On the other side I have ADBE calls from yesterday. I just don´t prefer to trade those mad financials. QQQQ seems to trade now 43.11 $

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Merkinnät: QQQQ

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-4-6 08:58

EW Count CheckPoint
[size=130%]12.9-2008, Thursday - Market Closed,

8 Charts>

QQQQ, XLE (ETF), XTO, IBM, POT, CRM, JOYG and US Steel (X).

Enjoy your weekend & tomorrow friday session. CRM pattern should be long lasting based for my earlier work with it. Oil might miss one tiny wave to the upside, I think I saw somewhere USO bull wedge.

Overall, it looks alike most of the stocks are starting to be pretty much ready now to open new downside wave. Perhaps there could be one tiny, tiny subwave left to overthrow that cubes chart closer of actual 44 $ - if that come´s it´s likely tomorrow, some other charts suggest the same like IBM.

I believe I have even some major size better setups also - stocks that going to see end of the world, but let´s look at them during the weekend.....

It looks alike pretty good shorting setup now, would you agree ? You can easily add tomorrows price action to these charts to see monday starting setup if interested any. There´s no smaller wave exist as subminuette wave which makes any sense to follow & fit bigger waves...

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Merkinnät: EW Count CheckPoint

CountCheck Point

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