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- 2006-7-3
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发表于 2009-4-6 09:09
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Adobe, ADBE
So, here it is - I talk far too much about this stock, but talking time is now over. If there´s one tiny pullback coming as wave 2, that should be another&second entry gate to go long with it - then, we should go.
There should be from 4 to 6 impulse waves 3 impulses behaviour behind of it with different timeframes. If previous 38 $ is violated downside, all of my adobe hardcore work would be complet failure, that´s also area where my stoplosses are set up now, but I am planning to add from next bullback, even from very tiny one´s.
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Merkinnät: ADBE, Adobe
Nokia
One update (again) for Nokia, my workstudio tells me nokia is working with subminuette 3 wave up, ended subminuette wave 2 when re-touched 17.10 euros. As mentioned allready target area 17-19 for multimonths, but I believe now it´s going to reach 19 euros during july-august. Bullflag confirmed very quick and rapid wave 2 allready. Nokia harmony number is very unrare, I haven´t see many stocks progressing this path. This is pretty powerfull call, because after reporting Q it reached 17 euros.
This is my summer gift for europeans as I don´t usually follow much EU stocks. That´s euro calculation, BUT here´s US $ based chart and middle-time frame target area. Note that target should be met even with nokia would work only with B corrective wave or even complete diagonal would be just wave 1. It really would not surprize me to see B wave to happen with impulse mode as it seems now. Nokia is very odd company by charting point of view, it might be related to the issue it´s main currency is euro to trade in europe.
However, my work suggest it´s progressing with impulse mode now, so I must prepare for possibility this is also longer term turnaround for nokia. If you want to spot another, lower resistance from US chart, it´s located in the lower wave 2 linear line.
But end of the day, it´s just one another diagonal, nothing more & nothing else and as simple as that pattern is.
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Merkinnät: Nokia
California Micro Devices, CAMD
It´s too early say can this ending wave 5 pattern breake out yet, but at least it should achieve upper channel now. If it stops without able to breake upper channel, wave 3 down would be then placed where I marked wave 5, meaning extended wave 3.
If "bear" case is issue, next upside impulse wave is only wave 4 and wave 5 still coming downside before wedge is closing and solving this pattern, but together with that macd and RSI we can try as both alternatives pinpointing to the same direction. I would not like to miss this, pattern is pretty big and powerfull when it´s ending. All these stocks are next week earnings cases.
However, that wave 4 came pretty complex allready, indicating that this impulse might be ready. If it breakes above, it´s then time to look at it more deeply what waves this pattern is actually solving out from the longer history. One small tect stock and at least upper channel should be reached.
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Merkinnät: California Micro Devices, CAMD
Weekend + SP 1290
Ah, finally weekend.
QQQQ, my thoughts are that rest of the july we don´t move much anymore with progressive direction, market is working reactionary wave 4 which very likely going to take more complex method instead something very simple like a-b-c-. I think this is better time for intratraders, scalpers, bollinger band boys etc. while we consolidate (zigzag) and not making so big movements anymore, but end of the day not much progress - just shaking. May I add that certainly I would not buy my idea also that we stay here, while bigger impulses still keeps velocity downside, upside "risk" is also very limited, but at least it´s exist.
Beginning of August or during the August I expect this reactionary wave to be finished for 47 - 47.50 area, so see in here that I wait one another higher high blow-out nor matter what happens during the end of july.
Then we can take the rest down and finish this bear market and we´ll see also how far we go, bear in mind that in theory all EW chartist can make mistake in here and there´s still possibility wave3 could extend which would push us much more lower as no-one expected, when the next impulse wave starts - there´s even possibility it could be first impulse wave 3 down. I don´t think this is the issue but when we will reach end of this reactionray wave market knows this possibility and wave 5 can come pretty powerfull, however, consolidation between stocks will be propably seen now on and good times for longer timeframe pickers, there will be a lot of experienced fundamendal buyers out there now and oscillators has confirmed turnaround allready - meaning real investors and many quarter swingers who prefer to buy blood on the street acts now (even I didn´t see that blood yet, just falling banks).
Actually this dowside was not so bad after all when looking back now, it´s was very much financial stock related - I expected it could come much more violent for tech stocks also.
To express this simple way, QQQQ turned from 50 % fib cycle retracement as 44 $ and that´s our bottom now, which should keep until wave 4 is fully done & finished.
I just figured out also I missed very simple and good buying place when not taking any financial stock longs, it´s certainly most shorted area and new SEC rulez started cover panic and I am envy to those percents they go, UBS investment bank alone from 21 to 27 $ in a just few days and I even charted it just month ago.....well, one guy cannot run to each corner....
[size=180%]Minium Target for SPX 1290 for wave 4.
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Merkinnät: Google
Nokia
Increasing my target to 17-19 euros area and I believe for long term investors buyzone was placed in here. The move I wanted to see after 17 euros is reached, if it´s able to breake, even with 10 cents, this opens path much higher. My TargetPrice for 2009 is 27 euros, but for next multimonths I believe Nokia stays between 17-19 euros. Still long with it.
Another update: One small failure in here at so far and that´s xilinx, executed it. Also going to lock Altera profits today and many other´s also, 2 mad rally days is just enough for me when indexes are working only with reactionary waves. Nasdaq is allready up 25 points and dow over hundred, if you add for that yesterday´s rally we should have at least one A wave in here and I don´t need calculator to understand it. I called market temporary to come and turn with qqqq 44 and it came 43.50, bouth deepest bottoms market offered and called corrective reactionary wave to go 47. Today it went 45.78.
I prefer to left some room as many propably have noticed. Still believe also that qqqq 47 or close will be reached but I don´t want to be there when and if it will reached, but better be sure, besides my stocks setups allready blowed up between 10-30 %, all of them besides xilinx and intel came a bit shy.
Going to waiting mode or & and to hunt either new invididual stock setups or new place to entry short market, but I don´t believe it´s going to happen today or tomorrow either. Market propaply takes one small b wave down and blows up another C wave, but that´s only positive scenario and it would also end this reactionary wave rally.
The fact is that even with individual stocks upside impulses as wave one up to wave 2 down can allmost overlap wave one meaning that they can take allmost double bottom, nor matter is there impulse wave 3 progress behind of them, but I´ll keep TSL & SOLF and I am ready to expect situation if they will take wave 2 down now-on, just sold call side options of them.
No reason propably to worry (yet), I am just allways early birth, but indexes have still long way to go down.
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Merkinnät: Nokia
Nokia
16.7 - 2008 I need to change my opinion in here a bit, I still think this is a bit more risky long entry as Altera, Intel, Adobe, Cisco, Xilinx, KlacTencor, Autodesk or any other similiar semi & software stocks bottom I am bullish with, but there´s possibility that Nokia could start new impulse wave from here, chart is not updated as stock has not moved much since this post, earnings release will be thursday from europe while US still sleeping. If this fails, the yellow linear line will be very likely met to put bottom for nokia, but I believe now nokia chart doing exactly the same as all the other´s (meaning stocks mentioned). My first upside target is now 17 euros, so it´s as concervative as Intel target. More interesting as my target price is how the price perform, if I recognice any impulse method, I might keep this stock a bit longer.
If I recognice only 3 method upside progress (a-b-c) after earnings I call it just another B wave meaning nokia multiyears chart is working with complex sideways, even double or triple tree pattern. Either the case is, I am slightly bullish with it now and expect upside reaction & behaviour. This will be fast over the earnings trade, perhaps just a few days or overnight, even it would go much higher I´ll propably roll my positions back to US, I am not very interested to follow multiple timeframe markets, but long with it allready as mentioned before, let´s call it rainy summer trade. 78.6% fibonacci retracement sounds for me just a bit too bearish view at this stage to call in.
In percentage terms, I would say 70% chance for corrective B upwave and 30% chance for new upside impulse wave. Bearish scenario is marked to the chart, but my bullish view is suggest now a-b-c corrective letters down where last c wave allready is broken to fully impulse meaning end of it.
Additionally no need for chart, but another SOX stock, Xilinx (XLNX) is similiar case as Altera was, it´s reporting on thursday also and buy zone was today - none of the plusside cannot be bought anymore, when index working only reactionary wave these stock need to be bought only from ultimate intra bottom and still if being right capital gain can be come very sligt and tiny one.
28.6 - 2008 Reactionary B wave rally watch case. If it sells 21-22.50 $ area, buy it.
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Merkinnät: Nokia
Altera
Bought it at 18.68 $. (I like .681 prices....). Actually it was down only -1.7% but fair enough for me to fulfill C.
Novellus, Xiling, Adobe, Autodesk, Intel, Klac............sox & smh just won´t go down together with market, either we stay in here or we go up. I think this is pretty good place to collect this business area for longer term portofolio, even financial stocks would bail out or go to the zero.
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Merkinnät: Altera
Altera
15.7-2008 It´s a bit freaknomics to work for a while opposite as market is heading down, but at so far my I don´t have problems with Sox & Shm stocks, but indeed these upmovements are very slow and difficult to progress, but I don´t see any other method if you bored for shorting.
Altera is going to report tonight and together with other big sox stocks setup seems something similiar, but note that these upmovements might come very tiny one´s. If Altera will plunge today 18-19 area before earnings, I might go long with it. KLAC is another.
Trinasolar is my biggest long position and heading up, no matter what does it do at daily basis.
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Merkinnät: Altera
Bullish
I added Nokia (NOK) to my bullish position today, from european market - going long with this also over earnings now.
Intel, Nokia, Adobe, Autodesk, Apple and Cisco, Agilent are at so far biggest tech stocks I am very bullish with from here. It might be klac, lrcx, ffiv and other similiar Sox stocks have same EW setup now, but I haven´t worked much recently since weekend was decent wheather.
Propably will do some EW work at least with FFIV soon. Moreover, my recent charts below including TrinaSolar, Cytokinetics should start working from here. Many market participants seems to looking for Vix panic low over 30 for monday, but I seriously believe now that last week deepest plunges were right place to buy one corrective snap-back rally which is coming up, at least with individual stocks as examples mentioned.
If this market will plunge hard again on monday, I will propably just look to take more Sox & Smh related long positions.
DUG chart is for me very bullish now, meaning bearish view for Oil and I do expect eurodollar to take impulse wave 3 soon opposite direction meaning strong US dollar and weaker Euro. There´s possibility next eurodollar movement will be 1300 pips to the 1.47 level - this gives a bit distance, so I don´t care much anymore what does it do between 1.60 and 1.62 if it reach this high levels. The fact that Oil reacher higher high last week didn´t change individual oil stocks technicals anymore, they´re falling now.
However, I don´t buy any rally from here either and I do believe last week deepest plunges were right time to go in for this reactionary wave (if it comes now) but as mentioned earlier SOX and some special Software stocks have completely different EW setup as overall SP500 index or Dow does and still I do expect them to see much lower lows. Still keeping QQQQ 47, perhaps 47.50 as temporary target.
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Merkinnät: Bullish |
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