一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-4-6 07:42

EUR/USD Update March 9. 2009 1h chart

Here is an update. I believe we are in wave V of 5 and this should be the last wave before a significant move up.
2509 is the 161.8 extension of wave I and the target for wave 3.
See the fibonacci channel drawn in the chart as well.
Both indicators are pointing down, reaching their turning points (oversold) a good indication that this is indeed a wave 3 and an indicator that it might stay oversold for a while. As a contra indicator you could see this as a sell signal.
Remember there is still a minor wave iv to form before heading down one more time, so expect some pullback.

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Filed Under: eurusd

9:54 AM
Psychology in Trading
Approaching Trading With an Empty MindBrett N. Steenbarger, Ph.D.www.brettsteenbarger.comNote: A version of this article appeared on the Trading Markets site, 8/7/06I recently accompanied my father to a real estate sale in the southern part of Florida. That market for homes and condos had been among the hottest in the country. When we looked at the number of properties on the market at present, however, and the (paltry) number that were selling, we could see that most million-dollar units would have to be priced $200,000 or more below their recent, peak values. Nonetheless, sellers, for the most part, were keeping their asking prices fixed, despite the clear reality that they were generating no traffic and certainly no offers. Quite simply, they were slow to update their perceptions in a changing reality.

Cognitive psychologists emphasize that we see what we want to see: we are all prisoners of the mental maps we create. Once a trader forms an opinion, he or she is more likely to overweight information consistent with this view than information that is contradictory. In one behavioral finance experiment, subjects have the opportunity to offer an item for sale. In one condition, the subjects have won that item in a contest. In the other condition, the subjects price the item for sale, but it hasn't been given to them. As you might guess, the subjects who owned the item demanded much more money for the item than those who had no ownership. It was the same item: only the fact of ownership made it valuable. So it is with our market opinions: once we own it, we overvalue it.

Other studies suggest that we see only what we expect to see, and thus become blind to new realities -- much like the Florida sellers.

Laurence Gonzales, in his fascinating book "Deep Survival: Who Lives, Who Dies, and Why", describes a research study from Harvard psychologists. They showed people a film of basketball players passing the ball to each other. During the film, a man in a gorilla costume walks into the middle of the action and stays visible on the screen for about five seconds. One group of subjects was asked to count the number of passes among the players; the other group was simply asked to watch the film. Incredibly, 56% of the subjects who counted the passes didn't ever see the gorilla. Of course, everyone asked to simply watch the film noticed the gorilla man on the basketball court.

The point is that the brain is a kind of search engine: a Googler of reality. If we program our search to look for passes among basketball players, that's the output we receive from the brain. What is extraneous to our search (gorillas) is eliminated. When we conduct a broad search, we receive a wider range of outputs. Focused searches work well if we're looking for a specific item, such as lost car keys. They don't work so well when we need to process all of the information needed to survive in an environment of risk and uncertainty.

It is very easy to approach the markets in focused search mode. We develop a hypothesis about the market (bullish or bearish) and we prime ourselves to look for certain chart patterns or indicator readings. In our haste to find what we're looking for, we can miss the gorillas in the market. Afterwards, we might look back on market action and think, "How in the *^#@ could I have missed that??!!"

Gonzales writes, "The practice of Zen teaches that it is impossible to add anything more to a cup that is already full. If you pour in more tea, it simply spills over and is wasted. The same is true of the mind. A closed attitude, an attitude that says, 'I already know', may cause you to miss important information. Zen teaches openness. Survival instructors refer to that quality of openness as 'humility'. In my experience, elite performers, such as high-angle rescue professionals, who risk their lives to save others, have an exceptional balance of boldness and humility..." (p. 91).

Gonzales has provided a concise formula for trading success: boldness and humility. The exemplary trader has the boldness to act with conviction, and the humility to realize that what is apparent may not be all that is there.

Notice how so many of the excellent market bloggers -- and come readily to mind--track a variety of sectors and indices, examining the market from multiple angles. They're not just looking for the passes on the basketball court; they want to make sure they're not missing any market gorillas.

As I recently emphasized on my research blog, TraderFeed, the dominant themes of the equity markets have changed. Everywhere we look, there is evidence of risk-aversion. Look at which sector funds are growing assets and which are losing them. Look at which sectors have outperformed the market, and which have not. Value is trumping growth, and large caps are outperforming the small and Midcaps. This is no longer 2003 and 2004.

We can fail to update our mental models, like those Florida homeowners, and miss the gorilla in the market, or we can have the humility to accept and work within changing realities. When it comes to the markets, an empty mind goes a long way toward ensuring a full pocketbook.

Brett N. Steenbarger, Ph.D. is Associate Clinical Professor of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences at SUNY Upstate Medical University in Syracuse, NY and author of The Psychology of Trading (Wiley, 2003). As Director of Trader Development for Kingstree Trading, LLC in Chicago, he has mentored numerous professional traders and coordinated a training program for traders. An active trader of the stock indexes, Brett utilizes statistically based pattern recognition for intraday trading. Brett does not offer commercial services to traders, but maintains an archive of articles and a trading blog at www.brettsteenbarger.com and a blog of market analytics at www.traderfeed.blogspot.com. His book, Enhancing Trader Performance, is due for publication this fall (Wiley).

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8:49 AM
EURUSD long term pespective 030609 4h

This is the long term perspective, only a probability. The bottom channel needs to be taken out to confirm a deeper correction.
For now we will go up for a while. I am targetting the blue highlighted area.

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Filed Under: eurusd

9:14 AM
EURUSD update March 5, 2009 1hr chart

Here is my take. Now remember that B waves are crazy waves, they can go whereever they want to, even a new low, as long as the correction is in 3 waves. My experience the 78.6% fibo usually holds well and it rarely drops below the start of wave A, but this is no guarantee that it will be so in this case. Caution is advised.

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hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-4-6 07:43

Dow Jones, will history repeat?

I made a comparisment between the DJ of today to the DJ of '29 - '34.
If history repeats, we are in for a long and deep depression.
Corrections happen in 3 waves A, B and C. We are about to complete a wave A.
Wave B retraced 50% in '30, that would put us at about 10000 today. Then a deep wave C came and a same correction would put us at 3500. Twice as low as we are today. Recovery won't be until 2012.
Hopefully it won't happen...

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Filed Under: dowjones

4:44 PM
eur/usd update march 4, 2009

After evaluating the 3 scenario's the impulse is the only scenario left.

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8:47 AM
GBP/USD updare March 3, 2009

Update on the cable. Still some room downward.

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Filed Under: gbpusd

8:41 AM
EUR/USD update March 03, 2009

It will be interesting to see if 2509 holds. If it goes through, we are very bearish.

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hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-4-6 07:44

EUR/JPY 4h update 03-01-09 4h

Chart for the EURJPY.

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Filed Under: eurjpy

5:44 AM
GBP/USD update 03-01-2009 4h chart

Here is an update on the cable.
It looks like the 61.8% fibonacci support at 4067 is holding well sofar, however there is still potential on the downside possibly as far as 3800. The upside is there is C is a flat C which would complete wave B.
Once B is completed there is a potential for 1.6000.

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Filed Under: gbpusd

3:33 PM
EUR/USD Elliott Wave Update 02-28-09 30m chart

Here is a bigger picture update. I like this probability.
Looks like we need to close the long we entered and wait for an enty near the bottom of the channel.

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Filed Under: eurusd

9:10 AM
Update EUR/JPY Feb 27, 2009

You have got to love this game...
After I entered long on eurusd it went up 100 pips and down another 100 pips. However, the stop is not out so we are still in and yes, up 30 pips now.

Here is a look at the EUR/JPY notice the alternate count. However given the MACD I prefer the current count as the MACD shows lots of room on the downside still.

Trade safely!

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hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-4-6 07:45

Update Dow Jones Feb 27, 09

[size=85%]Here is my update on the Dow Jones. As I said last week, it will go lower. 7000 was the target and the market has gapped towards that level.
[size=85%]Will be interesting to see if 7000 holds, the 1.618 extension of wave 1 has already been passed. If it holds it will be wave 5 of 3, then a retrace will follow, followed by another run down.

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Filed Under: dowjones

6:50 AM
EUR/USD update feb 27, 2009

I just entered a long based upon this count.
I kept the stop really close. A break through 78.6% fibo might mean we go back to 100% retrace. Below 1.2509 and we are bearish.

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Filed Under: eurusd

6:23 PM
Update Feb 26, 2009

[size=85%]Today was a bit of a strange day for trading. Usually the EUR/USD, EUR/JPY and GBP/USD are trading in good corrolation with eachother, today not so.
[size=85%]I was long on EUR/JPY and short on GBP/USD and EUR/USD on the 15m intraday chart and won all 3 trades. Also, the EUR/JPY went down 200 pips, then up 200 pips and down 260 pips again. In other words, the pairs are looking for a direction.
[size=85%]The EUR/JPY looks ready for a bigger correction. The price dropped form 126 to 123.61 which is a 23.6% retrace from the start of wave III at 115.63. The price might drop some more, maybe even to 120. Looking at the MACD we can see that the crossing is very high up which usually means a bigger correction.

[size=85%]The EURUSD is a mess right now. I would stay away. The chart I gave is in very thin pencil. We might also see another wave down. For the price to stay bullish we need to stay above 1.2511. See my earlier chart for that.
[size=85%]A good risk reward is to enter the market when it bounces off the trendline with short stops. The RSI is slightly up and my neuronetwork is about to cross on up.

[size=85%]The GBPUSD has the same story. It might drop to the 78.6% fibonacci to as much as 1.3818, but it might also stay flat at the 61.8% retrace at 1.4067. From there we will go up again in the form of a bigger wave C to as high as 1.6000.
[size=85%]RSI is slightly down.

[size=85%]Stay tuned...

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Filed Under: eurjpy

9:37 AM
EUR/USD Update Feb 26, 2009

This is what might be occuring on the eur/usd.
A seemingly indecisive eurodollar might be setting up for a big move upwards.
The C wave went flat and couldn't quite reach the low of wave A.
That means a triangle is now forming and in this count it is part of a wave 2 (or B).
If this is correct price might be 'coiling' to reach 1.3400 which is the 1.618 extension of wave 1(or A)

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hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-4-6 07:45

EURJPY reevaluating feb 24, 2009

We broke out of the upper trendchannel and tested the upward trendline at 119.55. Resistance held and that means we might have to look at different options.
Wave 1 ends at 123.69. That is the line in the sand for a wave 4 correction. Crossing this price would mean that a bigger correction is ongoing and we might see higher prices. Staying below could still mean another run down to retest the low at 112.29.
We should see a retrace from her but staying above 119.55. If we go below 119.55, we will go further down, possibly to 112 again.

Another option for this is a double zigzag where wave I is in fact a C and II would be an X (notice the 5 wave correction) and we are currently forming wave Y, but that depends on the 123.69 mark, it needs to hold in order for the double zigzag to be true.

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Filed Under: eurjpy

2:13 PM
EUR/USD update feb 23, 2009

Where are we now?

We are now in a 3 wave correction and depending on which of 3 scenario's described earlier we are in a 2 or B wave.
They can retrace almost all of wave 1 or A. B waves can even exceed the level of wave A.
I marked 2585 as the 78.6% fibonacci level. That is my initial target although we should realize that the price can hold at 2700 which coincides with the 61.8% fibonacci retrace, but I like to see confirmation from the MACD first. Once we have a bottom, a C or 3 wave should form and target there is 3300.

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Filed Under: eurusd

2:00 PM
Dow Jones Feb 23, 2009

Update on the Dow. As predicted last week, a new low has come. Not only that, it overshot the 161.8% fibonacci extension.
A new resistance can be found at 7000.
Price could retrace from there and set up for a wave 5 and a deeper correction.

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Filed Under: dowjones

10:28 AM
EURJPY update Feb 23, 2009

Ouch, got stopped out of the EURJPY.
The count might still be valid though, given following Elliott rule:

Wave E almost never stops at the trend line precisely, it either never reaches the trend line or it overshoots the trend line fast and temporarily. For now we need to wait to see if price falls back into the channel.

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hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-4-6 07:46

EURJPY Feb. 22, 2009

EurJPY seems to be trading in the latter stage of wave 4 of 5 of (5).
There is strong resistance at 120.00.
I am short with a stop at 121.00 1st target is 116.50, which is the bottom of the channel.
There is still a little room upward, a patient trader waits a little while to enter closer to the upper resistance line.

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Filed Under: eurjpy

10:22 AM
EURUSD 4h chart update Feb. 21, 2009

[size=85%]Hello Traders,
[size=85%]
[size=85%]The price is going up, but we are not sure in which scenario we are in the big picture. The scenario where the price should go to at a minimum is the impulse down, where we are currently forming a wave 2. In that case a retreat to the 38.2% fibonacci is probable. We should reevaluate from there.
[size=85%]The price could then continue to the 61.8% fibonacci or even 100% to 1.4700, although not likely. If the price passes 1.4700 then we are in an impulse up, likely to form a new high higher then 1.6000. If the price drops to below 1.2300 we are likely in an impulse down. Critical phase but we should know where we are within the next couple of weeks. Meantime we keep our eye on the intraday Elliott wave developments.

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Filed Under: eurusd, forex eur/usd elliott wave technical analysis

9:15 AM
EURUSD scenarios Feb 21, 2009

[size=85%]In my mind the following 3 scenarios are most probable.
[size=85%]It is with these scenarios in mind that I will be counting the waves.

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Filed Under: eurusd

9:40 AM
EURUSD short term update

Well, it went up...and how!
My short term was obviously a little off, because the price was unable to reach the low which implies that we were in a wave 2, but longterm was right, and still is because we can expect more upside.
I am expecting a retrace into the shaded area, 50% or 61.8% fibonacci retrace, to complete a wave iv and more euro gain in the form of a wave v.
We are in a wave 3 of 3 and should be testing 1.30 by next week.
If the price in this setup drops below the stopline of 1.2650, this count is invalid.

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hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-4-6 07:47

EURUSD Feb 20, 2009 short term

This is a short term count. In this count we are entering wave v down to retest the lows.

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5:51 PM
EURUSD Feb. 19, 2009 update

These are the 2 remaining counts left. Both suggest a temporary move up. Initial target is 1.3300.
After that we need to re-evaluate. It could go higher, but I am expecting either a wave 2 or a wave C. A wave 2 would not go as high and once we go down, a wave 2 would suggest a much lower eurusd, where a wave C could go flat and range between 1.25 and 1.47.

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5:00 AM
Cable update GBPUSD February 19, 2009

Still holding its textbook count. Going up...

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4:50 AM
Dow Jones Elliott Waves February 19, 2009

Update on the dow.
In this count I expect more weakness.

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hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-4-6 07:48

Cable (GBP/USD) February 18, 2009

A bit lower is still in the charts.

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Filed Under: gbpusd

5:40 AM
EUR/USD February 18, 2009

Update on the double zigzag.

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11:59 AM
eur/usd february 13, 2009 30m chart

Here is the bearish view for the EUR/USD.

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11:22 AM
Cable update february 13, 2009 15m chart

Here is a nice setup. Textbook Elliott Waves really. Take advantage while you can.

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hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-4-6 07:52

GBP/USD February 11, 2009 4h chart

Here is the update for the cable (GBP/USD).

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3:20 PM
EUR/JPY February 11, 2009 4h chart

Here an update of the EUR/JPY.

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6:48 PM
EUR/USD February 10, 2009 update

The following triple zigzag is my preferred count. 3070 seems a very strong resistance.
A triangle is forming between 3070 and 2704. Triangles usually break in the direction of the trend.

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7:39 AM
EUR/USD February 10, 2009

After the russian scare last night and the Presidential speech, the euro has recovered and the bullish count is still intact. This is a possible count, and if correct 1.3300 is the target (1.61 ext. of wave I). A drop below 2891 would eliminate this count.

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hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-4-6 07:52

President Obama Speech

Oh well, EuroDollar (EUR/USD) seems to be falling through the roof, the trendline is broken again and my C wave target has been hit at 1.2900.
But, it retraced 78.6% sofar, still okay for a wave 2, but over 100% (2746) retrace invalidates all bullish counts.

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1:49 PM
Cable February 09, 2009 hourly

The cable hit the upper trendline at 1.5000 and has been pushing it for the duration of the day.
So far it is holding but a triangle is forming. If the trendline breaks more resistance can be found at the 161.8 fibonacci extension of wave a at 1.5108.
On the downside a wave B might form as deep as 1.4000.
I am sidelined on this pair for now until a clear top forms.

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7:36 AM
EUR/USD February 9, 2009

Upper channel broken....
I am expecting a decline now, to retest the channel TL.

May go as deep at 1.2900, which will be the 50% retrace from 2747-3093.
Daily pivot is at 2887.

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8:41 AM
USD/JPY February 7, 2009

Hi Traders,

[size=85%]Looking at the Yen count with Fibonacci relationships, we might see another run towards 93.00.
[size=85%]The 161.8 extension of wave 1 is at 93.00. Wait for the break above wave 3 (92.27) if you are not in the trade already.
[size=85%]Also, on a second chart, see how the Yen crossed a major trendline that has been holding the pair since August 2008, retested it and is now progressing upward.
[size=85%]

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hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-4-6 07:53

EUR/JPY Update February 7, 2009

Hi Traders,

Here an update on the EURJPY:

As I said last week, we are in an ABC correction pattern. The pair has shot through a minor resistance line which was forming a triangle and surged to the 1.2000 area.
I believe we will still get one attempt to break 1.2000 looking at the MACD there might be some more room upward. Looking at the wave count it looks like 1.2000 is the start of wave 4, which could potentially bring us down to 1.1650 the 61.8% retrace of wave 3.
We'll see how it plays out.

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11:21 AM
EUR/USD and cable (GBP/USD) update February 6, 2009

Both pairs ran into resistance. I closed out my positions.
Waiting for the correctional move.

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10:29 AM
Cable February 6, 2009

Cable is about to test an important trendline.
The cable went through the first trendline and is now to test another major resistance TL.
The MACD and RSI are at very high levels. I am expecting a correction soon.
For now, monitor.

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6:41 AM
EUR/USD February 6, 2009

Just to show you that you can make good profits with little risk.

And as I am writing this,

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-4-6 07:53

Cable update February 5, 2009

Cable has some more room up but is likely to drop a bit again.

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9:56 AM
EUR/USD February 5, 2009

As of now the wave down looks more like a 3 wave correction, and right now it looks more like a wave 2. The support at 2782 is the 76.8% retrace of wave I. I am still keeping in consideration the break of the TL at 2710, and a wave Y at 1.2500.

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11:55 AM
eur/usd back to triple zigzag

The impulse 5 wave down is pretty much out.
This is my new count.

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9:27 AM
EUR/USD wave 1 overlap February 03, 2009

Hmmmm, dilemma...
Wave 4 seems to have overlapped with wave 1 and therefore we need to look at an alternate count.

Prechter tells us that wave 4 in high volatile markets can sometimes overlap, but it is rare and then only in subminuette waves, which is not the case here.
So, relabel. Also, the MACD indicates that there is more room upwards. Sidelined for now as it seems we are in a small correction for now.

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hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-4-6 07:54

EURUSD Follow up February 03, 2009

There it was, the expected wave C.
Initial target of 1.3000 maybe the end of wave III. Remember, passing 1.3030 will invalidate this count as a wave 4 and would imply a longer term bullish move.

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5:17 AM
EUR/USD February 03, 2009

This is my count. I am expecting a run in form of wave C to the 1.2900 area, which is the 38.2% fibonacci retrace.
It could possibly go higher but should not pass the 1.3030 area. In that case this count is invalid.

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5:49 PM
EUR/AUD January 31, 2009

This one I picked of from poster Justy at Daily FX, but is in my view the most probable count as well.

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5:48 PM
EURJPY January 31, 2009

This is my Eur/JPY count.

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hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-4-6 07:55

EUR/USD Probable Count January 31, 2009

This is the most probable count now price had touched 1.2765.

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7:51 PM
EUR/USD Bearish Alternative January 30, 2009

[size=85%]This is the bearish alternative, which looks good as well. It will imply a wave 4 of smaller degree and a retest of 1.2765.
[size=85%]The top of wave 1 down is at 1.3035. If a wave 4 is forming it cannot go above 1.3035. If it goes above 1.3035, the bottom at 1.2777 was indeed a wave c of 2. If the price stays below 1.3035 and turns down to retest 1.2765 we are bearish again with an initial target at 1.2500.However, there is a catch. If we turn from 1.3035, we can still be in a wave 2 of 3 up, we need a break of 1.2765 to confirm a wave 5 down in order to be bearish.

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Filed Under: forex eur/usd elliott wave technical analysis

7:36 PM
EUR/USD Elliott Wave Analysis January 30, 2009

This is my count on the 4 hour chart of the EUR/USD.
Today the GDP came out better than expected, but still the worst reading in over 25 years -3.8%.
What did the dollar do? It got a liitle stronger. However, the line in the sand, 1.2765 is still holding.
Wave 2, cannot retrace beyond the start of wave 1, says the Elliott rule book. If it does, then we need to relabel and the bearish target is 1.2500, short term.
The bullish target is at least 1.3500, with a stop below 1.2765, that is a really good risk reward trade.

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5:35 AM
EUR/USD Elliott Wave Analysis January 30, 2009

GDP day today. Big drop expected. Lets see how the market reacts.
[size=85%]For the bullish scenario, the price has to stay above 1.2765 . In that case we are counting this move as a wave 2 of a bullish move to at least 1.3500.
[size=85%]Wave 2 cannot retrace below the start of wave 1, which in this case I labeled as an ABC.
[size=85%]If price drops below 1.2765 we are bearish till 1.2500 and we need to relabel the charts.

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hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-4-6 08:03

EUR/USD update january 29, 2009

We could still drop some more, 75-100 pips, and even retrace beyond bottom of 5, B waves, you never know. I will wait for the MACD to start coming up again.

Sidelined for now.

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9:28 AM
EUR/USD stopped out

I got stopped out of the eurodollar after moving my stops to 3085, at least limiting my losses.
The break of 1.3000 implies a new bearish move and could eventually go all the way to the bottom of the channel. Support lies at 1.2800.

The chart shows a possible wave count. There is still a chance that this move down is a 'b' wave of larger degree. For now I am sidelined.

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6:26 AM

Disclaimer:

The technical analysis is provided for informational purposes only. While based on information believed to be reliable, no guarantee is given that it is accurate or complete.
Elliott Wave analysis are seen as highly speculative and trading upon this analysis is at your own risk.

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hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-4-6 08:04

Forex Elliott Wave Analysis
Foreign currency exchange eur/usd usd/jpy gbp/jpy eur/jpy technical analysis elliott wave Forex Trading is highly speculative and can cause great financial losses. Elliott Wave trading is highly speculative, trading is a your own risk. Read the disclaimer on this site.

Blog Archive

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hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-4-6 08:27

>>>>>MARKET GEOMETRY<<<<<

[size=100%]- Cup & Handle
WeekendChart, Eur-Usd 30 Minutes Chart
[size=100%]- Cup & Handle
[size=100%]- Expanding Channel BreakOut
[size=100%]- First C wave impulse might be ready soon, need to correct again after it´s finished.
[size=100%]- C as main force seems to pinpoint approximately to the 50% area (1.4150)
[size=100%]- Fifth wave in here likely fills A wave of C, which would lead smaller B corrective, then C up again.
[size=100%]- 600 pips advance (added to the bottom at 1.3120) likely end
[size=100%]- Most Importantly, be aware that we might be very close to mark A wave with this last impulse.

Linkit tähän tekstiin

Merkinnät: Eur-Usd 30 Minutes Chart

EurUsd, DailyChart + 5 Minute Chart

Linkit tähän tekstiin

Merkinnät: DailyChart + 5 Minute Chart, EurUsd

29.3 - 30.3 - 2009, Weekend Charts, Individual Equites

Linkit tähän tekstiin

Merkinnät: 29.3 - 2009, Individual Equites, Weekend Charts

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-4-6 08:31

38.2% temporary bottom met
At 1.3420.
That´s huge reaction for that fib ! But enough for me, I closed it immediately at 1.3638

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Merkinnät: 38.2% temporary bottom met

Eur_Usd + Eur_Jpy

[size=100%]Mr. Prechter in EW International made a brilliant job when he called all real investors to close all their short position with all equities in the very end of february at SPX 750 because counter risk were far too high. There´s huge waves under control now, even primary or cycle one´s if he´s right. Well, congratulations, that was indeed a a real short postition of 750 points (1500-750 = 750 points profit !!!).
[size=100%]SPX 60 minutes macd seems to be falling after first impulse, likely some more consolidate ahead of us. It´s damn too difficult for me to breake it now, large upside movement could partial of 4C, which would mean that plunge we started in january wasn´ t fifth wave position at all, it was only fifth wave position for last autumn freefall wave3 position. If this is the case we do work with huge size of 4:th upwave. We´ll see if we live, but I have´t saw major collection of bullish diagonals in individual equities - to consider if the bottom was placed at 668 we should have a thousands of them available easily or under progress now.
[size=100%]I really hope Prechter is wrong, because if he´s not we just started cycle or primary (or both) 2 upwave, which would practically kills us someday when it ends.
[size=100%]As stockmarket seems to consolidate a bit huge rally, I´ve been trading eur-usd again. It´s relatively much more easy as SPX. As you can see it took fully impulse to major 50% line (1.4700-1.2500) and under correction mode also.
[size=100%]There´s actually a real lot to trade in there if you go to one minute chart; ie. bought today 1.3500 in european market hours as it left big southern doji with one tiny a-b-c movement at 1.3475. Once it rallied 60-80 pips it build later bear diagonal again and in US market hours it took it down with new subminuette impulse or at least first part of it.
[size=100%]38.2% level is going to give reversal also, likely. This is not so agressive setup, just a main direction for me. EurJpy in one minute chart also at perfect shorting zone now at 132.55 level seems to confirm again that 1.3500 is resistance now after it was support earlier today (to short down again after 70 pips rally from the very latest bottom) and I do believe that my oil chart below is going to follow some day.
[size=100%]Once and if these main fib retracements are met as correction in here, then you should take a really good look for stockmarket also, because then we had arrived to the real crossroads where market direction might be confirmed for much longer run.

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Merkinnät: Eur_Usd + Eur_Jpy

Whops
[size=100%]That didn´t work out all.
[size=100%]I am very say guy now, not because of this small stoploss occured - but unfortunately we must made this bear market to stay with us at least one year longer in my count in pinpoints to the real ABYSS.
[size=100%]However, EW cycle bull has propably started allready, so, expect more to more - more closer of SPX900 or even 1000. My oil shorts is still on there - need to believe the pattern...

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Merkinnät: Whops

SPX 803, 23.3 - 2009
[size=100%]On the tape again (something similiar for previous 800).
[size=100%]Considering W1 would be similiar size as W2 I shorted it again. On rare cases W2 can come 110% from W1 (or then it´s B wave). There´s very clear impulse again in the chart. Should know these banks stocks are going to fly with Obama toxic assetts plan.
[size=100%]With that oil chart below, it looks alike overnight it plunged small A wave down, then tiny B wave up again. The completely diagonal is likely A wave, where B would correct it - not an impulse as I marked it in the bigger picture.
[size=100%]If these levels breakes in here to the upside, something very alternative by EW point of view is valid.
[size=100%]With Oil short my stops are placed at 56$ and with SPX in 813. I wasn´t actually planning to short SPX anymore - but coudn´t resist....

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Merkinnät: SPX 798

Oil - Not so fast Vladmir

[size=100%]Looks double diagonal for me with fifth wave own diagonal inside on there.
[size=100%]34 $ was bottom. 55 $ could behave roof for here > if 38.2% or 50 % correction would occur perhaps we could go next to 89
[size=100%]3-5-8-13-21-[size=130%]34-55-89-144[size=100%] (=recent top) - oil seems to trade with fib numbers.
[size=100%]UN opinion about currency basket might have something to do with here, carefully watch it with Eur-Usd. Leading diagonals very often overthrows and this is special behaviour with commodites.
[size=100%]Shorted it with stoploss of 55 $.

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Merkinnät: Oil - Not so fast Vladmir

21.3 - 2009 Weekend thoughts - work
[size=100%]SPX went to 768 pivot point in 2 days, I covered my SPX short but likely opening it soon again (just a bit trading for as this bear market won´t aloud us to stay at the long side).
[size=100%]Silent unviolent plunge from 800 to 768 appears to be small W1 for me, likely small and tiny W2 upwave ahead which should not violate SPX800 (in most often W2 comes 50 - 78.6% of W1 size with price and time attitude).
[size=100%]This might take a day, half or few (not important factor actually for anyone else as most nifty traders), then 5/5/3 down should follow ending below 700. Toxic assetts in US is going to be one subject on next week - more toxic bills to pay for US taxpayers, god help them.
[size=100%]Btw. By kontratieff point of view, market cycle is 8,6 years. If we multiply that with X 365 we end 3138 fibonacci number days. This targeted day seems to pinpoint for 23.4- 2009 based for work by Amstrong famous PI model. I do assume if we would take 3138 days looking behind far enough this chart is going to hit to the very meaningfull place where market turned last time.
[size=100%]There´s cycle downtrend bottom knocking our doors allready when and if we start to approach closer to the SPX 600 calm waters, but I do afraid we didn´t get this easy. Next autumn might come as ugly as previous one bringing a new downwave impulse for us - but it´s a little bit too early to look that far yet.
[size=100%]Slow motion is a bear market attitude. Everything moves much slower phase as during bull market: Peoble in the streets, cars and even a music tempo. Did you know that most classical music tempo were much slower in 193X. Here´s some stunning performaces from US. From the program format which ideally describe some psychology behind the bull market sceme.

[size=100%]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jLa5qYP_HCw
[size=100%]Enjoy the weekend & spring,
[size=100%]Market Geometry

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Merkinnät: 21.3 - 2009 Weekend thoughts - work

FED - the very last pyramid still standing
Added JP. Morgan and Goldman put options today for swing over the next weekend.

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Merkinnät: FED - the very last pyramid still standing

SPX800 - 18.3-2009
[size=100%]Too much for me and too fast. I did a exit all longs (actually sold most allready at SPX 770).
[size=100%]Perhaps this IV wave leads us far ahead at the end of the day meaning much later in longer run, but I prefer to take only easy setups and prefer to exit on time as well.
[size=100%]Particulary I don´t like FED action today even market bought an idea of "paper money".
[size=100%]I also shorted SPX800, planning to keep it for next week (if my stoploss with 823 will not blow it down).

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Merkinnät: SPX800 - 18.3-2009

16.3-2009
[size=100%]Now, that was nice fourth of fifth up wave from 662 Fib bottom (3/5). It seems it mostly effected to the financial & bank stocks pretty much doubling City and Band of America.
[size=100%]SPX 770-800 is the area where I would expect the final fifth of fifth to start to lead this market to the new bottom as mentioned SPX600 area. We are pretty much end of this bearmarket at least for now (next 6 months), nor later that 23.3 - 2009 - 23.4-2009 there should be massive long times ahead for us. [size=100%]Swiss frang is shorting allready as another approvement.
[size=100%]It´s great to be invested - personally I started to get tired for trading allready. Only advice I can give is that buy next plunge. If you´re more trader approach behaviour, be very carefull to short very last 5/5 - there´s huge truncated risk.

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Merkinnät: 16.3-2009

662 - fibonacci target bottom
[size=100%][size=130%]7.3 - 2009, Market Closed

Occured today.

Well, 666 if you want to dress it for devils number as DowJones cut 6666 too ;).

It appears GE run away from me - should act there on wensday when it really lost it´s tick. Not much action for me today, but holding what I bought yesterday + some Intel trading. There seems to be spike during the late hours with SPX - certainly because Fib662 was so close, even reasonable decent one. Now, we´re inside of far too low for me and it´s real danger to short anything anymore unless you´re very fast moving intrawave trader.

It´s time to start scanning most heavily oversold RSI´s from this market and time to take more conservative approach, I am planning to start taking some heat very soon. Be aware that if SPX600 fails, there would be more significant drop to much lower, far below 500 and no, I don´t call todays action as final bottom yet instead this is a reversal which might give more on next week or then not - but when all of this destroy finally ends even more temporary, I´ll do expect that it would be something more violent & specific issue related as silent friday lag of buyer & sellers.

With existing W5 truncated risk there should be soon some real investors buying, the one´s who are able to take the heat meaning well reserved cash.

Nor reversal, but not panic either - market starts to look pretty dead place. Nothing new in this posts I assume for my readers, 600-662 is buy road for me and very minium target of it was met today with 4 points error. [size=100%]

I am preparing also with Eur-Usd more steady reversal in here also back to 1.30000 area[size=100%]. I propably should call todays as "mini-minium" buying requirements are met with SPX points, but I really didn´t expect this targeted range to come this quickly, basically many weeks freefall withthout any positive day at all and it didn´t pause today either before very last hours.[size=100%] Market is 2 weeks ahead from my charts. One more up, one more down and we could be clear if none of the waves in this impulse will not extend. If waves will extend, this spring is going to be very ugly.

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Merkinnät: 662 - new bottom

Well,
[size=100%]No breake for bears it seems, but yesterday selling program was not very panic either to my eyes even Indexes ended big minus pertantages the day. I bought Adobe, Pfizer, 2X Intel and Amazon yesterday even they didn´t actually fall together with market - more or less they all were dead flat.

Market still seems to sell bank´s and financials mostly. JPM, The US biggest bank at the freefall. Perhaps that GE would be buy at 5 $ also if it falls that far.

I am waiting at least some breake for friday, but likely we are going down again on next week to my abyss as mentioned 600-650 area before, but I cannot smell much panic on there yet - Vix seems not to spike either even there´s SMA 50/200 bullcross behind of it.

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Merkinnät: Well

Terminal Breake
5.3 - 2009
[size=100%]
Perhaps it´s time to re-consider this market as terminal breake for bears again. Some stocks starts to get real hammered and as one example is General Electric. With 4 days it sold down -40% which was real hammer from the marketplace - is this enough for world biggest company ?
It starts to sound a very mad, GE money is not a bank and very small part of their business.

Also, one exceptional stock does not much care about market selling is Amazon, it looks like would prefer to breake SMA200 line to the upside and with that MACD I cannot see much bears with it instead more upside impulses. Third one is Adobe, RSI-30 line seems to bottomed allready, at least now, so is Pfizer.

I see this market very danger now to estimate actual direction from here, have you ever seen the bear rally, if that one occures Eur-Usd can run in here even 600 pips and it´s the US dollar which dominates the market, only advice I can say is that follow it (Eur-Yen also).

The market was slightly positive yesterday, even it still looked very much as bear bounce and falled again during the last hours leading us pretty much nowwhere else than back to SPX710 which is not far away from ultimate new low (692). Financial and Banks stocks were still under pressure and ended day with big minus percentages.

[size=100%]And yes, when writing this for europen morning coffee, SPX futures are selling down back to 692...[size=100%]because General Motors informed they might get down if they don´t get more money told reuters. Interesting, because 692 is also pivot support.[size=100%] God Damn, Let it go down, it would approve that economy still works.

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Merkinnät: Terminal Breake

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-4-6 08:32

Nokia & Other PinPoints
[size=130%]1.3 - 2009, Weekend Thoughts & Work PinPoints,

[size=100%]- Gold has topped at 1000 $ and preparing to fall more.

- Oil has bottomed at 13.2-2009 with 34 $ future price (rollover weekend).

- SPX will find bottom between 600-662 - Minor Wave 5 should end there.

- Tele-operators are most bullish stocks globally at sector rotations.
(American Tower from US as one example)

- SOX / SMH stocks are the weakest sector to try to short anymore.

- Chinese and Russian´s StockMarkets has bottomed allready.

- Market absolute turn will occure between 17 - 27.3. 2009
(SPX points are the most important one´s).

- Energy might appears to have have leading sector at this time before everything else turns

- REIT´s are the best to short.[size=100%]

- IBM bottom is placed allready[size=100%].

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Merkinnät: Nokia

SPX
[size=100%]27.2 - 2009

There was likely sideways triangle break occured today which should give some boost to the downside again, perhaps not so big - as you can see 780 double fib resistance (with 2 different timeframes) kept roof while market traded 752 fib bottom twice today closing just above 750.

This could be new impulse, but as market is generally more sideways as during last year end-of-era waves, be very carefull with SPX 734-740 area. There´s real big 38.2% retracement on there from 34 years of SPX history chart plus many others, not to forget mention old bottom.

So, what are these EW labels, pasted bottom in the chart is either extended W1 or W3 of fifth position. Marked it as W3 meaning not extended impulse would be the scenario.

I would bet one of the wave will extend in here by end of the day meaning pretty pessimistic end result, but everyone should work with 5 and 15 minutes macd - as you had seen allready this market does not fall with the same speed anymore as it did 2008. Either the way, it´s pattern break-out meaning direction should be down from here.

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Merkinnät: SPX

780 Resistance Hit
[size=100%]Kind of flat bullish day, SMH (semi´s) was at some stage even over +5% rally mode, so some divergece seems to occur allready between the sectors.

My FAS chart below offered some upside trading twice today and looks alike BKX index had also same doji a few days ago as well as Bank of America, but today FAS finally ended day with "long legged doji" day candle ending slightly positive territory after SPX 780 resistance was hit and sold - long legged doji is bearish says my book . Reason for me to stay out and watch, because it´s not only ETF, it´s weapon because of it´s beta X 3. Bank of America has actually come up now over +100% in one week which is very decent.

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Merkinnät: 780 Resistance Hit

SPX 840 - DoubleBottom Holds
[size=100%]25.2 - 2009

Interesting, Bernanke spoke worked.

I think market will pretty much rest the rest of the week or two, meaning we will not breake this bottom yet - it´s pretty singificant since it´s 1997 asian crisis bottom also. When looking my favorite RSI-30 bottom charts, perhaps this is one need to take some upside room (to fall again).

Macd has come up for very long since price has still be falling. It´s not far away from zero either ;). Perhaps, at least we could get another positive candle or two for it. While 780-800 for SPX should be resistance, in W5 there should be some divergences exist allready - meaning some stocks might have very independent life, looks alike financial stocks might offer some examples. It´s been really amazing deep abyss in the chart in the past 3 months because these stocks didn´t reach to the upside with W4 either.

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Merkinnät: SPX 840 - DoubleBottom Holds

Sweden - ABB, German - Siemens, China - FXI
[size=100%][size=130%]24.2 - 2008

On the way, deep, deep down together with SPX.

Just a 3 example charts of international stocks & China Index with IV corrective wave top patterns together with bearish Head&Shoulders currently progressing V downside wave impulse. SPX 618-682, here we go....

It´s going be interesting how market is going to behave tomorrow as old bottom at SPX 840 comes, at least today market did not have courage to try to sell it through yet, one short lived rebound or directly through to the abyss ?

I am not sure is this slow progress down good news or bad news, but we still have plenty to go before even minimal target of fully impulse would be met.

Nothing much to add any of previous posts, it´s still wave 3 of 5 (3/5) on the progress, most likely wave 2/5 corrective is placed at the right shoulder in these charts. Still falling love with shorting & puts.

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Merkinnät: China - FXI, German - Siemens, Sweden - ABB

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-4-6 08:33

SPX 13.2 - 2009
[size=100%]Just how many HS patterns we need ;). One more time (again), perhaps 848 pivot gravity do it again or perhaps it will fall just before touching it. 850 seems to be important factor for this market. Waves still appears & comes very clear, I just don´t know anymore where they belongs, perhaps W2 ZigZag (in lower chart ZigZag shows).

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Merkinnät: SPX 13.2 - 2009

SPX
[size=100%]SPX 4 hours chart, trading with golden mean touches, just below SMA-50 line.

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Merkinnät: SPX

SPX, Do you recognice this pattern ?

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Merkinnät: Do you recognice this pattern ?, SPX

Eur-Usd "Obama speaks" signal is here again

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Merkinnät: Eur-Usd "Obama speaks" signal is here again

Dublex HeadShoulder Patterns
[size=130%]6.1 - 2009

[size=100%]Eur-Usd. Should follow the guidelines, let you profits run....I don´t know why I cover these shorts at all in any stage, there´s usually just another deeper plunge just on the next corner coming, but looking now, it´s very exotic with EW - I cannot fulfill it with waves, but asian market has build 1 minute inverse HS (bullish) and 5 minute chart from pasted 3 days is (bearish).

Perhaps I´ll leave it now for tomorrow, but still I am bearish with it in the longer run. Interesting detail by pattern side of view is that this right shoulder with Island spike was placed for ECB news to fall.

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Merkinnät: Dublex HeadShoulder Patterns

Market Closed, QQQQ
[size=100%]Bot first put options from nice cisco rally for QQQQ, such a long time since last traded this product. SMA-50 line for SOX/SMH looks a bit attractive at this moment, but really looking for swing to this for the next week and it´s unchanged. I will be looking tomorrow also some ETF´s (there´s so many new beta 3X etf´s). Closed Eur-Usd or actually trailing stop did it as it plunged pretty hard after ECB disappointment news to leave rate unchanged. It would still trade far much lower and never reached my entry point anymore, but perhaps new setup would come tomorrow. It´s not easy by EW point of view now (at least for me) - in past 2 days zigzag is most likely scenario.[size=100%]

Likely going to trade it a bit during Asian market hours, but those trades are too fast to post charts as working under 40 pips movements.

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Merkinnät: Market Closed, QQQQ

5.1 - 2009 Short of Everything
[size=100%]I shorted ECB ratecut, need to mention bear wedge also in minute chart. 1.2895 - 1.2900 area looks to be similiar B wave top with Eur-Usd usually seen with bear diagonal.

I will also load bear ETF´s as well as put options today for portofolio for longer swing, with
[size=100%]conservative target SPX 500-600[size=100%]...

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Merkinnät: 5.1 - 2009 Short of Everything

SPX 848-862
[size=100%]While market rallied a bit today before coming down again during afternoon, I do suppose now that right shoulder was placed with 850. Still, it´s industrial / dow jones driven path down, QQQQ is more flat as negative.

Cisco might keep some mild postive air on the SMH/SOX part, but I do expect market to start coming down again, nor later that next week if we consolidate / zigzag rest of the week. Very lazy market indeed.

Eur-Usd rallied about 130 pips since last post, but my trailing stop did exit it allready for 50% + 61.8% fibs (marked in chart) and I don´t think that count is valid anymore, it starts to look much more than bearish HS pattern also (too many of those nowdays everywhere you look), even it´s still trading above my original entry setup post. It´s doing pretty much nothing anymore meaning sideways zigzag tonight, there´s big risk that more impulses could follow down for it.

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Merkinnät: SPX 848-862

Eur-Usd
[size=100%]4.1 - 2009

Hmmm, it seems stockmarket have huge divergences between the sectors. SOX / SMH still have relative good times.

This is 15 minutes eur-usd chart and supporting from my 2 hours wedge data chart posted before, I bot long again for possible C wave. Does it hold, I have no idea, but trailing stop will work with it. 15, 30 and 60 minutes MACD´s are still bearish, hopefully turning.

[size=100%]With SPX I cannot see any impulses down since that 872 top yet, it starts to looks much more like A-B-C down and reached again allmost 805 on monday. Looking for example Catepillar chart, I wonder a bit can we sell more those industrial stocks, they starts to be pretty oversold. Hopefully it builds something more clear soon again, but it seems my HS pattern comes true with it as speculated earlier with that 30 minutes chart. However divergences are huge, for example Transportation and Maritime sectors had very bullish action yesterday, Sox / Smh also still going well with that SMA-50 line.

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Merkinnät: Eur-Usd

Usd-Chf
[size=100%]

Not so often, but sometimes my most favorite patterns appears somewhere and in very rare cases it appears also as clear as it is at this time with USD-CHF. My old readers certainly know I mean diagonals which are very high propability patterns plus my favorite one´s, but what really surprize me is how deeply FX market trades by physical fib numbers as well. Stocks do the same, but nothing this hardcore FX market does.

I noticed this accidently on sunday night and kept watching next 48 hours. It´s very good indicator for Eur-Usd also and I was not surpriced that at the same time as Eur-Usd found 1.2700 bottom as perfect fib number + distance to fullfill that last W5 (1.27) Swiss Frang found it with price 1.168 (or 2 pips lower).

Euro expects to see surprizing ratecut by ECB and speculation starting to roll in immediately after asian market dropped W5 down with Eur-Usd on sunday night (for my previous 2 hours wedge chart) which was missing only W5. Therefore I suppose I was right also with that W3 doublebottom.

Let´s see how does it progress now, but pattern works now. Enjoy the view of USD-CHF 2 and 4 hours charts plus yearlong daily chart below. You cannot deny that first leg down was also impulse, this is why I marked it as impulse W1.

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Merkinnät: Usd-Chf

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