一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-31 16:54

December 12th, 2008 10:07 am Intraday Update 196 Comments

UPDATE 10:00am EST: Now that was an interesting retracement after the initial gap. Someone was commenting that the ever looming hope for salvation was wearing on his nerves and my response was to get used to it. That’s why Prechter coined the term ‘Slope of Hope’ (and someone else named some unpopular blog that way) - the human mind is not well equipped to the gyrations and tribulations of the stock market. In a bear market investors have a tendency to slide the slope of hope - it’s a psychological fail safe system:

This is a chart of the 1929 crash and the ensuing bear market ending in 1933. The bubbles are news clips that were issued during the progression downwards. Anyway, click on the image and it’ll show you a page with all the clippings. After reading that you might have a better idea of what’s ahead of us and how to judge the daily headlines you will keep seeing in the news. Most of us might not read printed news papers anymore (another industry bites the dust as expected) and we all now have fancy computers and other electronic toys giving us access to the news, but we as humans have not changed a bit. We’re as silly a ever and that is most likely not going to change.
There have been some confusion about the color changes and the tiny little lines on the Zero I put up last night. People - nothing has changed - I am just making slight modifications. If it was anything major I would have put it right on the screen grab. Be assured that I will be working on updating the tutorial over the weekend - unfortunately there are only 24 hours in the day and I’m already working 18 of them. I do appreciate the enthusiasm and the continued interest. I am also aware that nobody wants to see an indicator change all the time. However, at the same token, many of you have been clamoring for trade signals and that’s what I have been busy adding. Nothing has changed with the underlying algorithm and if you compare prior screen shots to the pattern of the (now) white line, this will be abundantly clear. Just give me a few more days to finalize the tutorial and we should be good to go.
The good news is that the tutorial will now be a lot simpler as people really only have to follow the VTAs.
UPDATE 10:26am EST: Take a look at this grab:

A reader sent me a similar version of this and I added today’s drop in the markings. What I find interesting today is that the intensity of the signal line (in white) is a lot smaller than what we have seen in prior break outs this month. It’s way too early to assign meaning to this but I think we should take note. Maybe, and just maybe, the size of the signal can be correlated with the expected size of the move? Now, throw in retracement levels and this might open up a whole new dimension of how to manage your trades. Again, don’t go all nervous on me now - nothing has changed and I’m just throwing out a few thoughts. If you find yourself breathing through your mouth you can safely ignore this posting.
UPDATE 12:51pm EST: TNX is still up and Yen seems to have run into some overhead resistance. NQ just passed the 1197 pivot and YM is pushing through 8620. Zero is about to give a long VTA and I intent to take up a small long position. Will stack if we see more momentum - obviously right now everyone is waiting for some Detroit related bailout news.
UPDATE 1:30pm EST: Market is in gyration mode right now - everyone’s waiting for those bailout news - as if it’ll make much of a difference. Strange how human psychology works. Anyway, it’s December 12th and I’m only taking on very small positions at this point. The big players are decorating their Christmas trees already and if you recall the Thanksgiving week, market is now becoming very sensitive to monkey business. No sense to burn cash in this environment…
UPDATE 2:00pm EST: Take a look at this Gold chart:

I know this sounds strange but it reminds me of a read-out of a digital signal on an oscilloscope (yeah, I used to be an engineer). Now, I don’t want to jump to conclusions but the thought has occurred to me that the spikes might be generated by program trading. Gold has lagged Silver as of late which has been flat like a flounder. This is supposed to be bearish for Gold, but I am not confident enough at this point to burn theta on puts. Unless you got positioned right at the cusp of these moves you probably had to either give up or found youself waking up to a considerable loss/profit. Now, if you believe in fractal theory (and I do) then the next turning point may be only days away. Also note how little Gold has moved during last night’s panic sell off in equities. A lot of food for thought….
UPDATE 2:14pm EST: Here’s a quick preview of a chart that will be added to the new tutorial this weekend:

I have written down all the entries and exits and will be updating the case study in the next two days. However, what I wanted to point out is the area which I framed. See the short VTA - the very first trade? That must have been scary to sit through! However, the Zero did not buy it and stayed below - it might have swung above briefly but since it’s a maribuzo candle I doubt it reared its head above the zero line. Well, that patience paid off - which is a point that one of our newer readers just made.
Anyway, these are the 20 days before this Wednesday. I think it gives you a good idea of how the Zero performs in varying conditions.
UPDATE 3:38pm EST: Some of you seem to be on a Zero update crack feed. No need to report the signal here - people who care are watching the chart. Listen, there is nothing the Zero can do about a market like this:

I mean - look at these candles! The Zero is not a crystal ball - it feeds off of market sentiment, which is whack today (even more so than usual). It cannot make the market move - it can only report on the general trend, which has remained slightly bullish since that ETA. Did I take my position off the table and lost some? Yes, but had I held it and believed the damn thing I would actually be sitting on slight profits right now. We didn’t get a green line up and the market reversed and droped 20 points. Let’s keep things in perspective folks - this is a trend trading system and that’s why I posted the chart further above. If you can’t sit through some losses you should not trade the Zero (now I have to take my own advice).

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-3-31 17:11 编辑 ]

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-31 17:22

December 11th, 2008 8:55 pm Market Forecasts 155 Comments

Do or die here in the $NDX. We have a nice break down, but is it the start of the next move lower, or is just the [X] wave in an [ABC] correction? I am sure that many of you can guess, but I favor the former over the latter and here is why.

Today’s breadth was fairly negative, with most indexes registering 9:1.
We were rejected from strong overhead resistance. This includes a confluence of trendlines and horizontal levels, and also included a RL at some point.
A = C equality in the $NDX. The move from the low on 11/21 to the high on 11/26 is almost equal (above 90%) to the move up from EITHER 12/2 or 12/5 to the 12/9 high.
I can count five waves up from the 12/2 low to the 12/9 high.
The MACD is still pointing down, and histogram is making a lower low.

I have a few more reasons, but I have to keep something to myself.

The reasons why I would believe that we get a final push higher, towards 1300 in $NDX are as follows:

We have an A = C equality in the moves down on the 9th and today’s down move.
One could argue that the move up from 12/5 would look best with one more push higher, and the move up from the 12/2 low (should that be the acting bottom) would DEFINITELY look best with one push higher.
We stalled at a RL today which also corresponds with an important closing trendline. While we can expect some recognition from such levels, but a move in either direction could be tell.
We got a close out side the 2.0BB. Granted, this is the tightest the BBs have squeezed in QUITE some time, we still must respect an hourly close back inside the 2.0.

The chart that illustrates this is kinda busy, so follow along. Teal lines are hourly closing trendlines, while the orange lines are are high/low trendlines. The purple lines are important horizontal resistance levels. The blue horizontal line is the most logical horizontal target should we get a final push higher.

XLF and XHB have performed pretty much as expected. XLF is steadily chugging lower, and XHB has broken the rising wedge we discussed on Monday. Both have broken bullish resistance, and should be continuing lower. XHB…

XLF…

The title says do or die, because the bearish case has a chance to make a break lower. If it can breach this important confluence of resistance, we can start by looking for the lower purple line around 1185. If this decline was just a gap filling exercise and the trendlines hold, then we should be looking for the 1300 range. As I write, futures are down -140 in /YM, -23.25 in /NQ and -19.5 in /ES. With the most recent break and reversal staring us in the face, and knowing that the futures have been less than useful in their after-hours antics, I am looking forward to the last trading day of the week before the last expiry of the year, which is also a fed week…
WIth that, I am going to set the short term indicator to up-down, allowing for another nominal push higher before we get our decline. I will set the medium term to down, expecting that within a week we will see lower prices, if not sooner. And the long term will be down, as I still believe momentum is with the downside.
Skål!.

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-31 17:23

December 11th, 2008 8:55 pm Market Forecasts 155 Comments

Do or die here in the $NDX. We have a nice break down, but is it the start of the next move lower, or is just the [X] wave in an [ABC] correction? I am sure that many of you can guess, but I favor the former over the latter and here is why.

Today’s breadth was fairly negative, with most indexes registering 9:1.
We were rejected from strong overhead resistance. This includes a confluence of trendlines and horizontal levels, and also included a RL at some point.
A = C equality in the $NDX. The move from the low on 11/21 to the high on 11/26 is almost equal (above 90%) to the move up from EITHER 12/2 or 12/5 to the 12/9 high.
I can count five waves up from the 12/2 low to the 12/9 high.
The MACD is still pointing down, and histogram is making a lower low.

I have a few more reasons, but I have to keep something to myself.

The reasons why I would believe that we get a final push higher, towards 1300 in $NDX are as follows:

We have an A = C equality in the moves down on the 9th and today’s down move.
One could argue that the move up from 12/5 would look best with one more push higher, and the move up from the 12/2 low (should that be the acting bottom) would DEFINITELY look best with one push higher.
We stalled at a RL today which also corresponds with an important closing trendline. While we can expect some recognition from such levels, but a move in either direction could be tell.
We got a close out side the 2.0BB. Granted, this is the tightest the BBs have squeezed in QUITE some time, we still must respect an hourly close back inside the 2.0.

The chart that illustrates this is kinda busy, so follow along. Teal lines are hourly closing trendlines, while the orange lines are are high/low trendlines. The purple lines are important horizontal resistance levels. The blue horizontal line is the most logical horizontal target should we get a final push higher.

XLF and XHB have performed pretty much as expected. XLF is steadily chugging lower, and XHB has broken the rising wedge we discussed on Monday. Both have broken bullish resistance, and should be continuing lower. XHB…

XLF…

The title says do or die, because the bearish case has a chance to make a break lower.  If it can breach this important confluence of resistance, we can start by looking for the lower purple line around 1185.  If this decline was just a gap filling exercise and the trendlines hold, then we should be looking for the 1300 range.  As I write, futures are down -140 in /YM, -23.25 in /NQ and -19.5 in /ES.  With the most recent break and reversal staring us in the face, and knowing that the futures have been less than useful in their after-hours antics, I am looking forward to the last trading day of the week before the last expiry of the year, which is also a fed week…
WIth that, I am going to set the short term indicator to up-down, allowing for another nominal push higher before we get our decline.  I will set the medium term to down, expecting that within a week we will see lower prices, if not sooner.  And the long term will be down, as I still believe momentum is with the downside.
Skål!.
Intra-Day Update: WAIT for it!December 11th, 2008 2:23 pm Intraday Update 194 Comments

UPDATE 2:00pm EST: Judging by the recent flow of comments it seems that many of you rats have been wearing the ‘ring of panic’ and thus have slowly turned into Gollum in the past few weeks. I can see you guys now - sitting there glued to the screen with your mouse cursor over the order button - an X-large box of Prozac on your table right next to a few lines of nose candy. Why the heck isn’t the damn zero triggering? Oh, I think I just saw a signal, why is it gone now again? Lunch? I need no stinkin’ lunch - that’s for losers! I’m going to miss the trade of the century, I just know it!
F…ing CHILL!!!
When my rats start chewing the cables and get all unruly on me I usually tell the story of Son Bull and Papa Bull:
Son and Papa Bull are standing on a hill looking down on a valley full of cows. Son Bull says to his dad: ‘Hey dad - why don’t we run down the hill and  one of those cows?’ Papa turns to his son, smiles and says: ‘Why don’t we walk down slowly and  ‘em all?’
Well, you know what the moral of the story is: Don’t let your wife and the local media catch you cow tapping

Now seriously, Berk and I have been trend traders of the turtle conviction for a while now and it seemed to work just fine until the market started going completely loco. As we are not impervious to the dark side of the force we found ourselves caught in shorter and shorter trades. In the beginning the worked out just fine as we were bearish when many were still catching up. But the market usually stays one step ahead of you and it started catching up with us. And so we decreased our trading window even more. Lather, rinse, repeat…
At the end we found ourselves glued to the screen and barely being able to follow nature’s call. Not good - and it was at that point that I decided to change the game because the game had changed us. Thus - the Zero - love it or hate it - seems to be able to tell you what the state of the market is. And if it moves that thing will probably tell you. And of course we love that opportunity to know - but instinctively we also hate it, because we ‘want to do something’. How often have you executed a trade and subconsciously knew it was a crap shoot? Yeah, you rationalized it just fine, but when it went against you (as expected) you knew inside that it could have been avoided.
Listen, if the market doesn’t move we evil speculators are up creek without a paddle. There’s nothing we can do and we have to wait it out. Just read a damn book on charting or go to your favorite nudie bar (that hasn’t burned down). You must have other evil inclinations beyond trading.
That’s it - don’t bug me for crying out loud - wait for it and you shall be rewarded.
UPDATE 6:01pm EST: As much as I hate to do it, I have to praise you damn rats (shudder). The dialog especially in this thread today was light years away from what I complained about a week ago or so. NOW we’ve got ourselves a fracking trading blog, ladies and leeches!
Good show today everybody - I actually saw people think along and not look for easy answers presented by others. I’m proud of you guys. Let’s hope that 875 RL breaches overnight - damn it 2sweeties - why did you put this one in our way? We were just about to go on a roll here…

« Older Entries
Newer Entries

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-31 17:28

December 11th, 2008 8:55 pm Market Forecasts 155 Comments

Do or die here in the $NDX. We have a nice break down, but is it the start of the next move lower, or is just the [X] wave in an [ABC] correction? I am sure that many of you can guess, but I favor the former over the latter and here is why.

Today’s breadth was fairly negative, with most indexes registering 9:1.
We were rejected from strong overhead resistance. This includes a confluence of trendlines and horizontal levels, and also included a RL at some point.
A = C equality in the $NDX. The move from the low on 11/21 to the high on 11/26 is almost equal (above 90%) to the move up from EITHER 12/2 or 12/5 to the 12/9 high.
I can count five waves up from the 12/2 low to the 12/9 high.
The MACD is still pointing down, and histogram is making a lower low.

I have a few more reasons, but I have to keep something to myself.

The reasons why I would believe that we get a final push higher, towards 1300 in $NDX are as follows:

We have an A = C equality in the moves down on the 9th and today’s down move.
One could argue that the move up from 12/5 would look best with one more push higher, and the move up from the 12/2 low (should that be the acting bottom) would DEFINITELY look best with one push higher.
We stalled at a RL today which also corresponds with an important closing trendline. While we can expect some recognition from such levels, but a move in either direction could be tell.
We got a close out side the 2.0BB. Granted, this is the tightest the BBs have squeezed in QUITE some time, we still must respect an hourly close back inside the 2.0.

The chart that illustrates this is kinda busy, so follow along. Teal lines are hourly closing trendlines, while the orange lines are are high/low trendlines. The purple lines are important horizontal resistance levels. The blue horizontal line is the most logical horizontal target should we get a final push higher.

XLF and XHB have performed pretty much as expected. XLF is steadily chugging lower, and XHB has broken the rising wedge we discussed on Monday. Both have broken bullish resistance, and should be continuing lower. XHB…

XLF…

The title says do or die, because the bearish case has a chance to make a break lower.  If it can breach this important confluence of resistance, we can start by looking for the lower purple line around 1185.  If this decline was just a gap filling exercise and the trendlines hold, then we should be looking for the 1300 range.  As I write, futures are down -140 in /YM, -23.25 in /NQ and -19.5 in /ES.  With the most recent break and reversal staring us in the face, and knowing that the futures have been less than useful in their after-hours antics, I am looking forward to the last trading day of the week before the last expiry of the year, which is also a fed week…
WIth that, I am going to set the short term indicator to up-down, allowing for another nominal push higher before we get our decline.  I will set the medium term to down, expecting that within a week we will see lower prices, if not sooner.  And the long term will be down, as I still believe momentum is with the downside.
Skål!.
Intra-Day Update: WAIT for it!December 11th, 2008 2:23 pm Intraday Update 194 Comments

UPDATE 2:00pm EST: Judging by the recent flow of comments it seems that many of you rats have been wearing the ‘ring of panic’ and thus have slowly turned into Gollum in the past few weeks. I can see you guys now - sitting there glued to the screen with your mouse cursor over the order button - an X-large box of Prozac on your table right next to a few lines of nose candy. Why the heck isn’t the damn zero triggering? Oh, I think I just saw a signal, why is it gone now again? Lunch? I need no stinkin’ lunch - that’s for losers! I’m going to miss the trade of the century, I just know it!
F…ing CHILL!!!
When my rats start chewing the cables and get all unruly on me I usually tell the story of Son Bull and Papa Bull:
Son and Papa Bull are standing on a hill looking down on a valley full of cows. Son Bull says to his dad: ‘Hey dad - why don’t we run down the hill and  one of those cows?’ Papa turns to his son, smiles and says: ‘Why don’t we walk down slowly and  ‘em all?’
Well, you know what the moral of the story is: Don’t let your wife and the local media catch you cow tapping

Now seriously, Berk and I have been trend traders of the turtle conviction for a while now and it seemed to work just fine until the market started going completely loco. As we are not impervious to the dark side of the force we found ourselves caught in shorter and shorter trades. In the beginning the worked out just fine as we were bearish when many were still catching up. But the market usually stays one step ahead of you and it started catching up with us. And so we decreased our trading window even more. Lather, rinse, repeat…
At the end we found ourselves glued to the screen and barely being able to follow nature’s call. Not good - and it was at that point that I decided to change the game because the game had changed us. Thus - the Zero - love it or hate it - seems to be able to tell you what the state of the market is. And if it moves that thing will probably tell you. And of course we love that opportunity to know - but instinctively we also hate it, because we ‘want to do something’. How often have you executed a trade and subconsciously knew it was a crap shoot? Yeah, you rationalized it just fine, but when it went against you (as expected) you knew inside that it could have been avoided.
Listen, if the market doesn’t move we evil speculators are up creek without a paddle. There’s nothing we can do and we have to wait it out. Just read a damn book on charting or go to your favorite nudie bar (that hasn’t burned down). You must have other evil inclinations beyond trading.
That’s it - don’t bug me for crying out loud - wait for it and you shall be rewarded.
UPDATE 6:01pm EST: As much as I hate to do it, I have to praise you damn rats (shudder). The dialog especially in this thread today was light years away from what I complained about a week ago or so. NOW we’ve got ourselves a fracking trading blog, ladies and leeches!
Good show today everybody - I actually saw people think along and not look for easy answers presented by others. I’m proud of you guys. Let’s hope that 875 RL breaches overnight - damn it 2sweeties - why did you put this one in our way? We were just about to go on a roll here…

« Older Entries
Newer Entries

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-31 17:29

December 11th, 2008 8:55 pm Market Forecasts 155 Comments

Do or die here in the $NDX. We have a nice break down, but is it the start of the next move lower, or is just the [X] wave in an [ABC] correction? I am sure that many of you can guess, but I favor the former over the latter and here is why.

Today’s breadth was fairly negative, with most indexes registering 9:1.
We were rejected from strong overhead resistance. This includes a confluence of trendlines and horizontal levels, and also included a RL at some point.
A = C equality in the $NDX. The move from the low on 11/21 to the high on 11/26 is almost equal (above 90%) to the move up from EITHER 12/2 or 12/5 to the 12/9 high.
I can count five waves up from the 12/2 low to the 12/9 high.
The MACD is still pointing down, and histogram is making a lower low.

I have a few more reasons, but I have to keep something to myself.

The reasons why I would believe that we get a final push higher, towards 1300 in $NDX are as follows:

We have an A = C equality in the moves down on the 9th and today’s down move.
One could argue that the move up from 12/5 would look best with one more push higher, and the move up from the 12/2 low (should that be the acting bottom) would DEFINITELY look best with one push higher.
We stalled at a RL today which also corresponds with an important closing trendline. While we can expect some recognition from such levels, but a move in either direction could be tell.
We got a close out side the 2.0BB. Granted, this is the tightest the BBs have squeezed in QUITE some time, we still must respect an hourly close back inside the 2.0.

The chart that illustrates this is kinda busy, so follow along. Teal lines are hourly closing trendlines, while the orange lines are are high/low trendlines. The purple lines are important horizontal resistance levels. The blue horizontal line is the most logical horizontal target should we get a final push higher.

XLF and XHB have performed pretty much as expected. XLF is steadily chugging lower, and XHB has broken the rising wedge we discussed on Monday. Both have broken bullish resistance, and should be continuing lower. XHB…

XLF…

The title says do or die, because the bearish case has a chance to make a break lower.  If it can breach this important confluence of resistance, we can start by looking for the lower purple line around 1185.  If this decline was just a gap filling exercise and the trendlines hold, then we should be looking for the 1300 range.  As I write, futures are down -140 in /YM, -23.25 in /NQ and -19.5 in /ES.  With the most recent break and reversal staring us in the face, and knowing that the futures have been less than useful in their after-hours antics, I am looking forward to the last trading day of the week before the last expiry of the year, which is also a fed week…
WIth that, I am going to set the short term indicator to up-down, allowing for another nominal push higher before we get our decline.  I will set the medium term to down, expecting that within a week we will see lower prices, if not sooner.  And the long term will be down, as I still believe momentum is with the downside.
Skål!.
Intra-Day Update: WAIT for it!December 11th, 2008 2:23 pm Intraday Update 194 Comments

UPDATE 2:00pm EST: Judging by the recent flow of comments it seems that many of you rats have been wearing the ‘ring of panic’ and thus have slowly turned into Gollum in the past few weeks. I can see you guys now - sitting there glued to the screen with your mouse cursor over the order button - an X-large box of Prozac on your table right next to a few lines of nose candy. Why the heck isn’t the damn zero triggering? Oh, I think I just saw a signal, why is it gone now again? Lunch? I need no stinkin’ lunch - that’s for losers! I’m going to miss the trade of the century, I just know it!
F…ing CHILL!!!
When my rats start chewing the cables and get all unruly on me I usually tell the story of Son Bull and Papa Bull:
Son and Papa Bull are standing on a hill looking down on a valley full of cows. Son Bull says to his dad: ‘Hey dad - why don’t we run down the hill and  one of those cows?’ Papa turns to his son, smiles and says: ‘Why don’t we walk down slowly and  ‘em all?’
Well, you know what the moral of the story is: Don’t let your wife and the local media catch you cow tapping

Now seriously, Berk and I have been trend traders of the turtle conviction for a while now and it seemed to work just fine until the market started going completely loco. As we are not impervious to the dark side of the force we found ourselves caught in shorter and shorter trades. In the beginning the worked out just fine as we were bearish when many were still catching up. But the market usually stays one step ahead of you and it started catching up with us. And so we decreased our trading window even more. Lather, rinse, repeat…
At the end we found ourselves glued to the screen and barely being able to follow nature’s call. Not good - and it was at that point that I decided to change the game because the game had changed us. Thus - the Zero - love it or hate it - seems to be able to tell you what the state of the market is. And if it moves that thing will probably tell you. And of course we love that opportunity to know - but instinctively we also hate it, because we ‘want to do something’. How often have you executed a trade and subconsciously knew it was a crap shoot? Yeah, you rationalized it just fine, but when it went against you (as expected) you knew inside that it could have been avoided.
Listen, if the market doesn’t move we evil speculators are up creek without a paddle. There’s nothing we can do and we have to wait it out. Just read a damn book on charting or go to your favorite nudie bar (that hasn’t burned down). You must have other evil inclinations beyond trading.
That’s it - don’t bug me for crying out loud - wait for it and you shall be rewarded.
UPDATE 6:01pm EST: As much as I hate to do it, I have to praise you damn rats (shudder). The dialog especially in this thread today was light years away from what I complained about a week ago or so. NOW we’ve got ourselves a fracking trading blog, ladies and leeches!
Good show today everybody - I actually saw people think along and not look for easy answers presented by others. I’m proud of you guys. Let’s hope that 875 RL breaches overnight - damn it 2sweeties - why did you put this one in our way? We were just about to go on a roll here…

« Older Entries
Newer Entries

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-31 17:43

December 11th, 2008 8:55 pm Market Forecasts 155 Comments

Do or die here in the $NDX. We have a nice break down, but is it the start of the next move lower, or is just the [X] wave in an [ABC] correction? I am sure that many of you can guess, but I favor the former over the latter and here is why.

Today’s breadth was fairly negative, with most indexes registering 9:1.
We were rejected from strong overhead resistance. This includes a confluence of trendlines and horizontal levels, and also included a RL at some point.
A = C equality in the $NDX. The move from the low on 11/21 to the high on 11/26 is almost equal (above 90%) to the move up from EITHER 12/2 or 12/5 to the 12/9 high.
I can count five waves up from the 12/2 low to the 12/9 high.
The MACD is still pointing down, and histogram is making a lower low.

I have a few more reasons, but I have to keep something to myself.

The reasons why I would believe that we get a final push higher, towards 1300 in $NDX are as follows:

We have an A = C equality in the moves down on the 9th and today’s down move.
One could argue that the move up from 12/5 would look best with one more push higher, and the move up from the 12/2 low (should that be the acting bottom) would DEFINITELY look best with one push higher.
We stalled at a RL today which also corresponds with an important closing trendline. While we can expect some recognition from such levels, but a move in either direction could be tell.
We got a close out side the 2.0BB. Granted, this is the tightest the BBs have squeezed in QUITE some time, we still must respect an hourly close back inside the 2.0.

The chart that illustrates this is kinda busy, so follow along. Teal lines are hourly closing trendlines, while the orange lines are are high/low trendlines. The purple lines are important horizontal resistance levels. The blue horizontal line is the most logical horizontal target should we get a final push higher.

XLF and XHB have performed pretty much as expected. XLF is steadily chugging lower, and XHB has broken the rising wedge we discussed on Monday. Both have broken bullish resistance, and should be continuing lower. XHB…

XLF…

The title says do or die, because the bearish case has a chance to make a break lower.  If it can breach this important confluence of resistance, we can start by looking for the lower purple line around 1185.  If this decline was just a gap filling exercise and the trendlines hold, then we should be looking for the 1300 range.  As I write, futures are down -140 in /YM, -23.25 in /NQ and -19.5 in /ES.  With the most recent break and reversal staring us in the face, and knowing that the futures have been less than useful in their after-hours antics, I am looking forward to the last trading day of the week before the last expiry of the year, which is also a fed week…
WIth that, I am going to set the short term indicator to up-down, allowing for another nominal push higher before we get our decline.  I will set the medium term to down, expecting that within a week we will see lower prices, if not sooner.  And the long term will be down, as I still believe momentum is with the downside.
Skål!.
Intra-Day Update: WAIT for it!December 11th, 2008 2:23 pm Intraday Update 194 Comments

UPDATE 2:00pm EST: Judging by the recent flow of comments it seems that many of you rats have been wearing the ‘ring of panic’ and thus have slowly turned into Gollum in the past few weeks. I can see you guys now - sitting there glued to the screen with your mouse cursor over the order button - an X-large box of Prozac on your table right next to a few lines of nose candy. Why the heck isn’t the damn zero triggering? Oh, I think I just saw a signal, why is it gone now again? Lunch? I need no stinkin’ lunch - that’s for losers! I’m going to miss the trade of the century, I just know it!
F…ing CHILL!!!
When my rats start chewing the cables and get all unruly on me I usually tell the story of Son Bull and Papa Bull:
Son and Papa Bull are standing on a hill looking down on a valley full of cows. Son Bull says to his dad: ‘Hey dad - why don’t we run down the hill and  one of those cows?’ Papa turns to his son, smiles and says: ‘Why don’t we walk down slowly and  ‘em all?’
Well, you know what the moral of the story is: Don’t let your wife and the local media catch you cow tapping

Now seriously, Berk and I have been trend traders of the turtle conviction for a while now and it seemed to work just fine until the market started going completely loco. As we are not impervious to the dark side of the force we found ourselves caught in shorter and shorter trades. In the beginning the worked out just fine as we were bearish when many were still catching up. But the market usually stays one step ahead of you and it started catching up with us. And so we decreased our trading window even more. Lather, rinse, repeat…
At the end we found ourselves glued to the screen and barely being able to follow nature’s call. Not good - and it was at that point that I decided to change the game because the game had changed us. Thus - the Zero - love it or hate it - seems to be able to tell you what the state of the market is. And if it moves that thing will probably tell you. And of course we love that opportunity to know - but instinctively we also hate it, because we ‘want to do something’. How often have you executed a trade and subconsciously knew it was a crap shoot? Yeah, you rationalized it just fine, but when it went against you (as expected) you knew inside that it could have been avoided.
Listen, if the market doesn’t move we evil speculators are up creek without a paddle. There’s nothing we can do and we have to wait it out. Just read a damn book on charting or go to your favorite nudie bar (that hasn’t burned down). You must have other evil inclinations beyond trading.
That’s it - don’t bug me for crying out loud - wait for it and you shall be rewarded.
UPDATE 6:01pm EST: As much as I hate to do it, I have to praise you damn rats (shudder). The dialog especially in this thread today was light years away from what I complained about a week ago or so. NOW we’ve got ourselves a fracking trading blog, ladies and leeches!
Good show today everybody - I actually saw people think along and not look for easy answers presented by others. I’m proud of you guys. Let’s hope that 875 RL breaches overnight - damn it 2sweeties - why did you put this one in our way? We were just about to go on a roll here…

« Older Entries
Newer Entries

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-31 17:45

December 11th, 2008 10:46 am Intraday Update 142 Comments

UPDATE 10:44am EST: I think most of us are impatiently awaiting the moment when we finally break out of that 885 - 920 channel we’ve been sitting in for the last three days. I sincerely hope I don’t have to wait until after Christmas. Well, something’s oughta break somewhere and this is why:

The Dollar is nearing an important support line - if it breaches that it will have a huge impact on currencies and commodities. Damn, I can’t even read charts properly today - this thing had dropped so much I didn’t even see it on the hourly!!! LOL

Anyway, this is pretty significant and it’s possible we are looking at the beginning of a major slide in the Dollar.
BTW, did you guys hear about the Ruble being devalued in larger incements? Russians are bulking up on jewelry and gold.

Oh, and in case you missed it while drooling in front of the Zero indicator: Yesterday, the 3-month U.S. T-bill yield turned negative intra-day, meaning that buyers were willing to take a loss to purchase ultra-safe T-bills. Strange how that is in crass contrast to what equities are doing. I always said that bond traders are a lot sharper than their equity trading mouth breathing ass scratching brethren.
UPDATE 11:11am EST: Something is definitely moving out there and it’s not in my pants:

Banks are taking it up the rear today - maybe the BKX is pointing toward the direction of the market? I’m not sure yet, so far the market appears to be one frozen winter landscape.
UPDATE 11:44am EST: FYI - leeches - the Yen just fell off the plate. There’s definitely a seller lurking around 1.0925. This might be bullish for equities.
UPDATE 11:52am EST: Gold busted through a very important resistance level today and has come back.

Frankly, this puts the entire wave count in question right now, which as of late has been a big furball anyway. I have no predictions regarding Gold as of now. My recommendation would be to stay out of Gold until we see a clear breach of either 835 or 740. In between those levels you’re just asking for more whipsaw pain and positions are not very defensible.

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-4-1 06:09

December 9th, 2008 6:32 pm Market Forecasts 61 Comments

I’m going to be extremely brief and to the point tonight as I have a full plate for the evening. We all know the market is overbought right now and today’s tape was a first step to slightly releasing this pressure. However, don’t get your bearish hopes up too much.

Let me show you what I mean - above you see a chart I posted on November 30th.

And this is today’s tape. Not bad I would say - so far the tape has yielded to my command (just kidding - I got lucky so far). There are some EWT folks out there who (I usually respect but) are now pointing towards the October 27 low in the SPX (845.27) as the bottom of intermediate (3). The conclusion is that we are now in a triangle and have embarked on wave d to the downside.
Well, as my chart above shows, I humbly disagree for two main reason (and because I love to disagree): Firstly, I don’t put much faith in October 27th being the orthodox bottom of (3) - meaning that the (lower) 839.80 low in the SPX was actually a smaller degree subwave of (3) - nope, not buying it, at least not yet.

Secondly, I disagree with the time dimension. Intermediate wave (2) lasted from 7/15 to 8/11, which is exactly 24 days. I call that a ’sharp correction’. Remember the rule of alternation: If a wave two of an impulse is a sharp correction, expect wave four to be a sideways correction, and vice versa (EWP page 63).
So, I just don’t see us painting a triangle yet, until at least the market tells me otherwise. Good news is - we should know fairly soon.
NYSE Bullish Percent Index (EOD) ($BPNYA) INDX
9-Dec-2008, 16:00 ET, daily, O:49.03 H:49.03 L:49.03 C:49.03 V:0 Chg:2.55
Bullish Percent (2.00×3.00) chart.
Status Bull Confirmed

© StockCharts.com 100.00 | | | | | | | | 100.00 98.00 | | | | | | | | 98.00 96.00 | | | | | | | | 96.00 94.00 | | | | | | | | 94.00 92.00 | | | | | | | | 92.00 90.00 | | | | | | | | 90.00 88.00 | | | | | | | | 88.00 86.00 | | | | | | | | 86.00 84.00 | | | | | | | | 84.00 82.00 | | | | | | | | 82.00 80.00 | | | | | | | | 80.00 78.00 | | 1 X | | | | | 78.00 76.00 | | X 3 X 5 C | | | + | | 76.00 74.00 | | C O 4 O X 3 | C | X + | | 74.00 72.00 | | 7 O O X O 8 + X 3 X 7 + | | 72.00 70.00 | | X O X O X 9 X + B O X O + | | 70.00 68.00 | | X O B O X O 1 5 + X O X O + | | 68.00 66.00 | | 6 O X 4 7 O X O + X O 4 O X + | 66.00 64.00 | | X O A O X A X O X O O X O | + | 64.00 62.00 | | X O X O X O C O X | O X O | + | 62.00 60.00 | | X 7 X O X O X O A | O A O | + | 60.00 58.00 | | X 8 X O X O X O 9 | O X O | X + | 58.00 56.00 | | X O 9 O 6 O X O X | O X B | X 6 + | 56.00 54.00 | | 5 O O O B O 7 X | O X O | X O + + | 54.00 52.00 | 1 X | O | 6 X O X | + O X O | 5 O X + | 52.00 50.00 | C O X | | O X O 8 + 8 X O | X O X X O + | 50.00 48.00 | X O X | | O X O + | O 9 O X | X O X 9 X O + X | 48.00< 46.00 | X O X | + O + | O X O X O X O X O X O + X | 46.00 44.00 | 9 X 2 X | + | | O X O X O X O X O X O + X | 44.00 42.00 | O X O X | + | | O X O C O X X O 8 O X O X X | 42.00 40.00 | O X O X + | | O X O X 1 X 3 4 O X O X O X O X | 40.00 38.00 | O B 3 4 + | | | O X O X O X O X O X O X O X O X | 38.00 36.00 | O X O | + | | | O X O X O X O X O X O X O X O X | 36.00 34.00 | O X | + | | | O X O O X O X 7 X O O X O X | 34.00 32.00 | A X | + | | | O O 2 O X O X O B O X | 32.00 30.00 | O X + | | | O X O X O X O X O C | 30.00 28.00 | O X + | | | | O X O O A X O X | 28.00 26.00 | O + | | | | O X O X O X | 26.00 24.00 | + | | | | | O X O X O X | 24.00 22.00 | | | | | | O X O X O X | 22.00 20.00 | | | | | | O X O X X O X | 20.00 18.00 | | | | | | O X O X O X O X | 18.00 16.00 | | | | | | O O X O X O X | 16.00 14.00 | | | | | | | O X O X O X | 14.00 12.00 | | | | | | | O X O X O X | 12.00 10.00 | | | | | | | O X O O X | 10.00 8.00 | | | | | | | O X O + | 8.00 6.00 | | | | | | | O X + | 6.00 4.00 | | | | | | | O | 4.00 2.00 | | | | | | | | 2.00 0.00 | | | | | | | | 0.00 03 04 05 06 07 08 + = bearish resistance line+ = bullish support line

I’m usually not a big proponent of P&F charts, but the Bullish Percent Index switching into ‘bull confirmed’ mode is another reason why I’m only ‘mildly bearish’. A lot of fund manager look at this stuff and I think it’ll be a tough fight for the bears.

However, the McClellan Indicator shows heavily overbought conditions, so I’m sure we will get some kind of correction. Maybe today was the start of that, and maybe the market will tease it out a bit more, but we will get it sooner than later. I just don’t know what the degree of the correction will be and right now my wave analysis indicates that it will be a shallow one just to re-energize the bulls.
That, my dear steel rats, is pretty much all I have time for tonight. I will make up with intra-day posts tomorrow - promised.
Cheers!

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-4-1 06:09

UPDATE 12:07pm EST: There’s the snap back right at the pivot. I hope you guys waited and didn’t take reckless trades. Hey, the zero doesn’t lie (so far). TNX is slowly crawling up and I think we might have seen a low for now. This of course flies in the face of equities dropping - under normal circumstances. But frankly, I don’t give the TNX too much weight lately. We might see the TNX stay in a channel between 2.5% - 3.0% while the market paints larger moves. I know, I’m trying to rationalize it - the market will tell me what it wants to do.
The Yen does have an impact lately but not enough to push equities off their rails. I am also not giving the Yen too much weight - with the only exception that I prefer seeing the Yen oversold when I get a short VTA.
NYSE Bullish Percent Index (EOD) ($BPNYA) INDX
8-Dec-2008, 16:00 ET, daily, O:46.48 H:46.48 L:46.48 C:46.48 V:0 Chg:13.70
Bullish Percent (2.00×3.00) chart.
Status Bull Confirmed

© StockCharts.com 100.00 | | | | | | | | 100.00 98.00 | | | | | | | | 98.00 96.00 | | | | | | | | 96.00 94.00 | | | | | | | | 94.00 92.00 | | | | | | | | 92.00 90.00 | | | | | | | | 90.00 88.00 | | | | | | | | 88.00 86.00 | | | | | | | | 86.00 84.00 | | | | | | | | 84.00 82.00 | | | | | | | | 82.00 80.00 | | | | | | | | 80.00 78.00 | | 1 X | | | | | 78.00 76.00 | | X 3 X 5 C | | | + | | 76.00 74.00 | | C O 4 O X 3 | C | X + | | 74.00 72.00 | | 7 O O X O 8 + X 3 X 7 + | | 72.00 70.00 | | X O X O X 9 X + B O X O + | | 70.00 68.00 | | X O B O X O 1 5 + X O X O + | | 68.00 66.00 | | 6 O X 4 7 O X O + X O 4 O X + | 66.00 64.00 | | X O A O X A X O X O O X O | + | 64.00 62.00 | | X O X O X O C O X | O X O | + | 62.00 60.00 | | X 7 X O X O X O A | O A O | + | 60.00 58.00 | | X 8 X O X O X O 9 | O X O | X + | 58.00 56.00 | | X O 9 O 6 O X O X | O X B | X 6 + | 56.00 54.00 | | 5 O O O B O 7 X | O X O | X O + + | 54.00 52.00 | 1 X | O | 6 X O X | + O X O | 5 O X + | 52.00 50.00 | C O X | | O X O 8 + 8 X O | X O X X O + | 50.00 48.00 | X O X | | O X O + | O 9 O X | X O X 9 X O + | 48.00 46.00 | X O X | + O + | O X O X O X O X O X O + X | 46.00< 44.00 | 9 X 2 X | + | | O X O X O X O X O X O + X | 44.00 42.00 | O X O X | + | | O X O C O X X O 8 O X O X X | 42.00 40.00 | O X O X + | | O X O X 1 X 3 4 O X O X O X O X | 40.00 38.00 | O B 3 4 + | | | O X O X O X O X O X O X O X O X | 38.00 36.00 | O X O | + | | | O X O X O X O X O X O X O X O X | 36.00 34.00 | O X | + | | | O X O O X O X 7 X O O X O X | 34.00 32.00 | A X | + | | | O O 2 O X O X O B O X | 32.00 30.00 | O X + | | | O X O X O X O X O C | 30.00 28.00 | O X + | | | | O X O O A X O X | 28.00 26.00 | O + | | | | O X O X O X | 26.00 24.00 | + | | | | | O X O X O X | 24.00 22.00 | | | | | | O X O X O X | 22.00 20.00 | | | | | | O X O X X O X | 20.00 18.00 | | | | | | O X O X O X O X | 18.00 16.00 | | | | | | O O X O X O X | 16.00 14.00 | | | | | | | O X O X O X | 14.00 12.00 | | | | | | | O X O X O X | 12.00 10.00 | | | | | | | O X O O X | 10.00 8.00 | | | | | | | O X O + | 8.00 6.00 | | | | | | | O X + | 6.00 4.00 | | | | | | | O | 4.00 2.00 | | | | | | | | 2.00 0.00 | | | | | | | | 0.00 03 04 05 06 07 08 + = bearish resistance line+ = bullish support line

Finally, the NYSE Bullish Percent is now in ‘bull confirmed’ mode. So, don’t give up on the bulls just yet.
UPDATE 12:40pm EST: Evil Speculator of the Day:

« Older Entries
Newer Entries

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-4-1 06:10

December 8th, 2008 9:23 pm Market Forecasts 92 Comments

It appears that after breaking upwards and retesting ($INDU) the “Point of Recognition,” the markets will be looking at least modestly higher. The $NDX jumped above its “POR” and hasn’t looked back. Unfortunately we have not completely broken out of our resistance zone, and judging the confluence overhead, now would probably not be the best time to be creating new long positions, rather waiting for a big break above 1250. From there, we can assess the wave structure, but unless a specific group jumps out at the lead, we will likely be heading lower in either wave D of a triangle, or wave 3 or and ending diagonal. The ending diagonal potential, while secondary right now, cannot be taken off the table until we measure out the following decline. Once this triangle traces out, we will be looking for about a 2500 point move lower, somewhere towards 6500 ($INDU) at rough guess.

Resistance levels are overhead, and we remain divergently over-bought, but it appears that to satisfy ANY corrective pattern, we would be about 1300 in $NDX. We will likely get a push lower, to the upper boundary of the gap, or perhaps to fill it, and pushing down would be a good time to start looking upwards for nearly 125 points ($NDX) at this point.

We have been watching the financials as well through this, and they remain well below the Nov. peak about 16.50 (XLF). XHB however appears to be tracing out the finishing touches on a nice bearish wedge, that will likely be the c wave of C (i.e. last part or 3 movement of 5 (next being down, then up again)) of a triangle. Since these are supposed to be two leading sectors, we will keep an eye on their movement over the coming days.

The $VIX is tracing out a nice triangle, that once breaks, SHOULD (please!!) hit triple digits. It is kinda tough to measure $VIX targets, especially with triangles, but I am going to use both total distance, and daily closes. If we push to the lower side of the triangle, we should be looking at 55-50. However, should we fall short of the lower boundary on the final push lower, we could be looking at 110 (60 (roughly) + 51 (triangle total) = 111). There are other ways to measure the triangle of course, but 100-110 would be a good target.

All in all, we are looking modestly upwards, seeking to satisfy yesterday’s levels around 9100-9300 in $INDU, and up to 1300 in $NDX. From there, we should get a couple hundred point down move ($INDU), before the final up/down/up {A-B-C} of the triangle. Should this point coincide with the $VIX at the bottom of its triangle, we will have the best short entry for the next 3-6 months.
Skål!

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-4-1 06:11

December 8th, 2008 11:28 am Intraday Update 136 Comments

UPDATE 11:20am EST: Alright, the new Zero, new RLs, and new pivot points should keep you leeches busy for a few hours. I have to head out for an appointment and hopefully will be back before the closing bell. If you took the long VTA on Friday afternoon you should be sitting very pretty right now.
Otherwise, TNX is slightly up - I think it’s still broken.

Forget about the Yen right now - it’s moving almost 1:1 with the Dow futures. Also broken. This market is rallying on fumes but hey, profits are profits - nobody’s complaning about that. I would however strongly suggest to start picking out some sell-the-rip candidates. You leeches want to be ready when the tide turns, which it will.
Oh, and before I forget it - you 20 some Zero cynics officially lost

UPDATE 11:36am EST: Whooaaa - NQ just fell off the plate. Any news I haven’t heard of? Damn - I am getting the feeling I’m going to miss out on an amazing day… grrrr.
Point of RecognitionDecember 7th, 2008 12:56 pm Market Forecasts 139 Comments

Mole asked me to cover for him this weekend while he kicks his Zero research into serious over-drive. Don’t expect this to be the long glorious posts that you are used to over the weekend, as I have a long list of things to get done also. We just decided that I was the least burdened of the two.
We are in a very nice position right here either way you might want to play the market. Right now we could assume the trend down, with a breaking point of 1192.70 in $NDX. This thought would be based upon:

The lack of expanding breadth. Breadth is bullish, but if this is a high, it would signal yet another bullish close with diminishing volume. Not quite a divergence, but a good sign that we aren’t heading significantly higher.
Short term, we are at the bollinger (2.0/20d) and this is a nice indication while divergently oversold in the STO, as well as the MACD.
There still remains to be a group of leaders. Yes, the auto-makers will get their bail-out, and the banks will get theirs, but we need a leader. The trannies aren’t taking off, the $UTIL has had no net change in 2 full months (i.e. BB squeeze), XHB is rallying but losing momentum (there is a STRONG confluence at the previous peak of 14.71).
Finally, the larger trend being down, and seeing declines trace out 5 waves. Unfortunately, we can potentially see 5 wave moves up, indicating either an ending diagonal, or that the the operating trend right now is indeed up.

As I said though, this is easily hinged upon 1192.70 in $NDX and 8831.35 in $INDU, meaning that a break of that level would have us looking upwards to at least 1235 in $NDX and 9100 in $INDU.
However, if you choose to see the recent action bullishly based on:

A strong rally that has refused to break lower.
The potential H/S bottom in $NDX, $INDU, and $SPX, where in $INDU, the neckline IS the breaking point for the bearish case.
The break of the upward trendline, and then pushing right back through it, and then above horizontal resistance. This amounts to about an 8.5% reversal in $NDX, which would be a strong bullish indication should we break through the aforementioned support levels.
As with the bearish case, we could make out 5 wave working up, which could indicate a triangle with the larger trend being up.

That said, we are at an action point. If we are going lower, if will be from right at the current levels, as $NDX is not permitted to travel much higher. There are a few more indicators that are starting to show signs of a big move coming up, but I don’t want to jump the gun. As soon as they have confirmed, I will let you know.
That is it for me. As I said, Mole is busy scheming and tweeking the Zero. I am sure he will let us all in on the details as soon as they are “Alive!!”
Skål!
Mole here: Yes, it’s alive! Check out of the Zero, plus a new tutorial, plus a brand spanking new trend trading system (finally we are going back to our roots, Berk). And last but not least - a case study of the past 20 trading days based on the ZI and the new trading system. Pretty pictures included for you illerate street rats. The latter, my deer leeches, will blow your socks off - a must read ! You will be tested…
FYI: I have also recoded the Zero to ignore all the ‘noise’ surrounding the zero line - the signal is now beautifully normalized and all permanent swings above the zero line are now VTAs (read up on that). There are no more blue lines - only red and green - absolutely loving it now. The only thing I didn’t get done were the ZI entry/exit strategies for TOS - which would give us ‘on chart alerts’ on a VTA. I know - I’m a lazy bum - only managed to work 20 hours this weekend.
Guys - I am very excited about this - once you read the case study I expect you will as well. No more excuses - now let’s make some fracking money, steel rats!
Cheers!

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-4-1 06:11

December 5th, 2008 1:37 pm Intraday Update 204 Comments

UPDATE 1:30pm EST: As you guys can tell we are still fine-tuning the zero. I just changed the smoothing of the 30min chart to 2 after Berk told me that this setting worked very well for him. I tested it for a bit and think that he’s spot on. Let’s keep it that way for a while - hope it works for you rats.
Regarding the 15min Zero: Seriously, I was actually against posting this one as I have the feeling that, although everyone wants it, it might not help your trading, IYKWIM. Do me a favor - just use the 15min as a visualization of the short term trend. But do not trade it as it can whip you - just like the market can whip you. Remember folks - the Zero is not a crystal ball. It only gives you early entries/exits sometimes because the underlying market forces shift and the Zero shows us that before prices start reflecting it fully. I hope that makes more sense for you guys.
We should all focus on trading the long term trend with the zero. If you are a swing trader or day trader - please do not use it. If you do, it may work for you, but I will not support you in any way if you run into situations where you being faked out.
UPDATE 2:34pm EST: Someone complained that the zero was ‘too jittery’. Well, it’s not our fault if you cannot follow simple instructions. Case in point:

This image is part of the new tutorial I’m working on. It shows the 1hr Zero in action over the last 15 days. Red lines depict short entries, green long entries, and blue possible exits if you are light on your feet. Now, each of those trades would have been successful, assuming you would have waited for a confirmed entry.
Again, the market is extremly whippy right now - but even under these conditions I think the Zero is holding up quite nicely. After all, it started pointing up early in the morning and where are we now?
I am actually thinking of automating the Zero for my own purposes. This way I take emotions out of the equation. Which are usually why trades are unsuccessful - the tutorial is quite specific on waiting out the signals, but it seems many of you guys are on hare triggers.
UPDATE 3:26pm EST: Check this out:

How about that? Same phrase I saw last time we rallied on bad news. Remember, true wisdom is to call things by their true name. So, let’s replace ‘wave off’ with ‘ignore’ and see how that comes across. Well, we for sure won’t fight the tape though - zero has called it nicely today (irrespective of all the bickering by members show shall remain nameless).
UPDATE Closing Bell: Some of you asked for an EOD Zero chart and as I love to serve my nefarious leech legions here it is:

I even pointed out the entry point - just to rub it in

Somebody mentioned that I talk about the Zero too much. If I do - please accept my apologies for my irrational exuberance. Just having too much fun with it. But I did post a poll on your right - let’s see what the majority thinks. After all, I don’t want to blow up the blog over that.
Have a good weekend!
Intra-Day Update: Can we trust it?December 5th, 2008 10:36 am Intraday Update 156 Comments

UPDATE 10:06am EST: I think after several days of whipsaw and chop in combination with broken correlation indicators (e.g. TNX and Yen) nobody really trusts this tape too much. However, the sad reality is, my dear rats, that these are usually the times when the market makes the biggest moves. We always kick ourselves when we get caught in a morning trap and pay for it. We ask ourselves: ‘How could I have been so stupid? I should have known!’. Well, if you had known, you probably would have gone the other way, right?
What then happens is that we step back and go into cash - rightly so, I might add. However, staying in cash can also be a trap. What often happens after whipsaw fake outs, is that the market suddenly picks a direction and makes a big move. Then we ask ourselves: ‘Damn it - how could I miss out on this monster move?’. So, you wind up chasing the market and get what you deserve.
Then you are frustrated. You look at all the money you lost and you feel you are always one step behind. You doubt yourself and your entire trading approach is falling apart. You step away from trading for a few days, a week, maybe even a month. In the meantime the market keeps moving.
These is the mental theater we go through as traders. There is nothing wrong with stepping back and waiting for a better opportunity. But do it with humility. Meaning, if you missed out on a move, smile and wait for the next one. Never chase it. But also don’t let your emotions keep you from trading. You might get faked out once or twice, but don’t let recency bias get the better of you.

Recency bias is to think that the market will do today what it did yesterday.
Recency bias is to think that a stock hates you because it has gone against you every time you picked it up.
Recency bias is to get faked out yesterday and expect the same today.
Recency bias is to double your portfolio in a month and expecting the same to happen this month.

I think you get the drift. Recency bias can swing both ways and it’s a silent killer. Every day is a new day and the only constants in your trading should be your patience and the realization that the market is going to do its thing with or without you. You are just along for the ride.
Here are today’s weekly/daily retracement levels:

UPDATE 10:47am EST: My apologies for the ‘zero outage’ but the damn screen grab uploader crashed this morning (you know - Windows…) and I didn’t expect all the settings to be wiped on a relaunch. So, it was just storing the images locally - the ftp settings were inactive. Anyway, should work now - my apologies for any inconvenience but you know how it goes with Windoohss.
UPDATE 11:16am EST: Okay, let’s try something new. I think we as a group should put together a list of our top 50 stocks that we like, trust, and are conducive to option trading (e.g. volume, slippage, 5% + 10-day ATR, etc.). So, for our TOS users I have put together a CSV file of my current favorites (comma separated values file - there are actually no commas in the Prophet format, but whatever), which you can import as a watchlist into TOS like this:

Download this file to your system: http://www.screencast.com/t/jhxv1s8GogK
Click Watch Lists -> Import… (select file above you downloaded to your system)

If you don’t use TOS, do not despair as you can just open the file in your favorite text editor (e.g. notepad on Windows or TextEdit on OS X). Let’s go through these over the next few days and add some more and maybe remove the ones which we agree might not work going forward. Of course this is a ‘living list’ meaning that we should keep it evolving as market conditions change.
Thoughts would be appreciated.
UPDATE 11:23am EST: In that context, there is a wonderful watch tab in TOS. Just go to heart beat icon and then select the favs watchlist you just imported. Should look like this:

Now you have a ‘world view’ of what your favorite stocks are doing. It’s also easy to find ‘pull backs’, for instance if you missed out on DRYS’ morning rally and expect the market to go up today (which I don’t right now - but just hypothetically speaking), then you can tell that it has pulled back quite a bit. So, that might be your chance to get a good entry. Anyway, just to be clear - I’m not going long here - just a good example

UPDATE 11:55am EST: Well, I guess I just ate my own words (see above). Market is forming a nice reversal right now but I’m not sure this is turning into a real rally just yet. Let’s keep watching those RLs - we are approaching 833 which is a meek short RL. If we push through that one we might go all the way. But in order for that to happen we need to see more volume/conviction. Doesn’t feel like buying pressure, more like lack of sellers. What do you guys think?

December 4th, 2008 10:03 pm Market Forecasts 124 Comments

I’m gonna keep it short and sweet tonight. I haven’t been feeling too well, and have only been casually observing the markets for the past few days.
The markets seem to have broken their upward corrective channel, signaling a move lower is likely underway. Let me clarify the move lower since,at this point, we cannot decisively discern the best wave count taking place. That said, the push lower COULD stop in the area around 7900 in $INDU if the rally from the 11/21 low was a [1] up (most likely a part of [4]), and the subsequent decline, then rally, and now decline would be the A (drop), B (rally) and C (recent drop still underway) of wave [2]. This level in the $NDX would be around 1065. The other major competitor for wave count would be that the decline is just starting wave [3] of and ending diagonal. If this were the case, we should continue to chop lower, but with plenty of rallies in between.

We are also entering a seasonally slow period, as we are working well into the holiday season. Breadth was drastically negative today, not quite completely reversing yesterday’s positive numbers. Either way though, we can expect many whips for the coming future. There are solid resistance levels on both the top and bottom, and until we can break either of these levels, the near-term trend would best be called sideways. Likewise on the mid-term, though I will call it mixed until we get a clear signal. And since I favor overall down-side resolution, I am moving the long term indicator to down-up.
I do apologize for the brevity of this post, as I mentioned, I am not feeling stellar, and since I have little conviction, do not feel like rambling back and forth between views.
Skål!

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-4-1 06:12

December 4th, 2008 2:21 pm Intraday Update 149 Comments

UPDATE 2:20pm EST:
The zero is pulling its weight,
in such nasty tape.
Yes, it rhymes - call me Doctor Evil Seuss today.

What else do you need from a trend indicator?

I’m loving 2.0 right now…
UPDATE 2:53pm EST: Here are all of Tim Knight’s short picks as a CSV file you can import into Prophet charts. There is some good stuff in there, so check it out. BTW, since you guys are techophobes:
Click Watch Lists -> Import… (select file below you downloaded to your desktop)
http://www.screencast.com/t/PEXuZhdGKY
UPDATE 3:02pm EST: And here are my own ‘overbought candidates’. They all have floating shorts of 3% or less, which is heavily overbought. Same routine to import into TOS:
http://www.screencast.com/t/0dtwoHQOdci
UPDATE 3:42pm EST: Okay, here are my favorites - all overbought - although some of those suckers may be too far gone.
http://www.screencast.com/t/kL6uurlLfd
Listen, leeches - I’ve got nothing from you guys all day, although I keep delivering. The gravy train is going to stop very abruptly if this continues. Unacceptable - act like some ing traders and throw out some symbols and charts. I mean - the damn zero has been red all day - is everyone clipping their toe nails or what?
I’m not pleased or amused … I kept telling everyone that the bus moves fastest when everyone else got off.
Intra-Day Update: CorrelationsDecember 4th, 2008 1:39 pm Intraday Update 20 Comments

UPDATE 1:45pm EST: Well, so far zero has spot on, although we haven’t really dropped that much. ‘Tis difficult tape to say the least. I now see some blue in the PZ and MZ - might be good to take profits here. Again, it’s your trade and you need to learn how to link it with those indicators. They can only tell you what the market is doing (and sometimes what it’s about to do).
Anyway, while we are being bored to death let’s talk about my favorite precious metal for a change:

Remember how I was talking about correlations the other day - it seems that Gold is now moving with the market, which is quite a change from about six months ago when we enjoyed an inverse correlation.

We have seen the same flip happen in crude, and all of those commodities are of course linked to the value of the Dollar, which has been rallying.

Or has it? The USD/JPY has been bleeding in the last few weeks. Also, we are getting close to completing the current rally in the Dollar index and I expect it to drop like a rock starting early spring 2009.
So, what do you think will happen to Gold and Crude prices once the Dollar starts tanking? I’m more confident about Gold enjoying a rally - not sure yet about Crude. Equities - well, it depends on whether the market thinks that we are in a deflation or a recession. The former would mean equities will tank as well, and the latter would give equities a rise.
Although all this is interesting I never base my trades on that. Take Gold for instance - everyone was looking at Gold from a fundamental prospective six months ago - and got wiped out in the process. I kept saying that Gold would drop when it reached 960 and got a lot of heat for it. Well, look where we are now. That’s why I stick with my long term wave count. The rules might not help you on a daily basis, but when it comes to long term trends EWT is unbeatable and has saved my butt more than once.
UPDATE 1:57pm EST: I wanted to share this chart with you guys as it should affect your trading decisions right now.

That’s 20 days worth of 1-hour zero signals. It’s pretty obvious what’s going on here - the market basically chops hamburger meat for the last three days. What we all should be waiting for is some real confidence in direction. Remember - you cannot force the market - let it tell you what it’ll do. Best thing a trader can do is to realize when he/she is in a non-win situation and just wait things out. The trend will continue - one way or the other. Get the point?

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-4-1 06:13

December 4th, 2008 9:56 am Intraday Update 120 Comments

UPDATE 9:49am EST: The market needing bad news to drop. I know that I’m the first guy to consistently fade the news, but any of those headlines would have resulted in a 500 point drop just half a year ago:

And just like yesterday we drop and then we rock again. I’m fairly sure this is not going to continue but it’s still pretty annoying to keep watching this crap. BTW, watch the 878 level on the SPX - it’s the 78.6% retracement and it is a line in the sand actually as not breaching this level keeps the intermediate wave (3) scenario in play.
Here is today’s RL chart, as I know how much my rats like pretty pictures:

UPDATE 10:24am EST: I live in the Hollywood Hills near Paris Hilton’s house and have tons of helicopters hovering just above - and it’s 7:24 over here! Either there’s something bad going down or Paris is up to her usual shenanigans again:

Yummie….
Anyway, feast your eyes on the latest BDI:

BTW, today looks like a continuation of yesterday’s action - the MMs are driving the market up and down. Crazy tape and as much as I hate it - until I see some conviction either way I’m staying out. I recommend you rats do the same. Remember - cash is a position and you don’t have to trade. You don’t trade, you don’t get whipsawed.
UPDATE 10:39am EST: I have remove thed 5 min zero - some people think they love it but I don’t think it helps them especially in this market. Too crowded and the zero was never intended to be a day trader’s tool - I have tried it and it works on a 5 min basis but you really need to see every tick. I also don’t want to confuse people who look at it for the first time. Will put up a poll now for you guys to pick between 1.0 and 2.0.
UPDATE 10:56am EST: I’m horrified: My 2nd home is going up in flames!

I hope Candy and Suga’ are okay…
UPDATE 12:30pm EST: How are you guys faring out there - it’s been pretty quiet today. Remember guys - the bus moves fastest once everyone got off. Are you buying puts? If so, which one’s? I’m getting a bit annoyed when I see zero productivity in here - and I’m not talking ‘zero indicator’ here either. Watch the tape boys and girls!!
« Older Entries
Newer Entries

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-4-1 06:14

December 4th, 2008 12:28 am Trading 46 Comments

Instead of resting I of course spent all afternoon/evening improving the zero - I just can’t help myself. Lo and behold - feast your eyes on zero 2.0, which I have already added to our live feed:

Questions I’m not going to answer:

Why does it look different?
What’s the difference between 1.0 and 2.0?
Can you change the colors?
What is the meaning of life?
Why do I suck so much at trading?
What do women want?

Just look at the damn feed and absorb both of them for the next few days. If the majority liked the new one better I will pull the old one or the reverse. I personally think I was able to improve the algorithm, which was triggered by an epiphany I had earlier today.
The one ‘big’ change are the blue lines, which are now the pre-signals. I wanted to visually distinguish early alerts from the full scale red or green ones, so I thought blue stands out nicely. Let me know if that works for you guys or if it’s confusing. It’s easy to get rid of that if necessary.
That’s all I got for tonight - cheers!
Intra-Day Update: Roller Coaster GaloreDecember 3rd, 2008 3:11 pm Intraday Update 93 Comments

UPDATE 3:08pm EST: We needed clean cups - page was getting unruly.

Now, fortunately we sometimes attract somewhat intelligent leeches. Anon pointed out that today’s tape was painting lower highs and lower lows on the 1hr zero. I have not used it that way, but it is pretty interesting. Could this be supportive of an good ole’ fashioned bear flag? Any thoughts on the subject? Only the smart leeches please…

UPDATE 3:38pm EST: Note that we are back at the 860 short RL - if we breach that we might get a rally into the close.
UPDATE 3:58pm EST: Everyone - it seems that disqus is broken again. Not under my control - hope it’ll get fixed soon. Anyway, what a day! Whipsaw Central would be an understatement. The smartest thing I did today was to stay out.
UPDATE 5:25pm EST: Just wanted to let you guys know that there won’t be a market wrap-up posting tonight. Berk and I are exhausted and need a day off during the week. Nothing much has changed since yesterday’s update - strangely the tape keeps moving along the path I outlined on Sunday. See you guys tomorrow morning.
Cheers!
Michael

Intra-Day Update: Crawl Baby Crawl!December 3rd, 2008 10:04 am Intraday Update 190 Comments

UPDATE 9:57am EST: We are getting a red signal on the zero, and I’m paper trading a futures contract again. Otherwise the tape looks like the type of ‘crawl’ we had to sit through yesterday - better grab a good book. I have no opinion as to the final direction yet - based on the news (which I personally usually ignore) the mouth breathers should have run for the hills, but thus far wishful thinking and hope is prepping up the tape (which is exactly the reason why I usually ignore the news).
Here are today’s SPX retracement levels:

DZZ made a comment about market correlations and that reminded me of a chart I wanted to post a while ago:

This is a correlation indicator tied against the SPX and USO (sorry, Prophet does not permit us access to CL futures right now - what’s the deal with that T.K.?). See the correlation flipped in a matter of 3 weeks starting back at the end of August? Commodity traders are nomads and once one sector is out of fashion they move to another - or when they expect a market correlation to flip it’s almost a concerted decision and it happens in a relatively short amount of time. Always good to keep an eye on those things, but I think it’ll be months until we see this one flip the other way again.
UPDATE 10:07am EST: That was a nice snap up the the 1120 pivot - happened in what - 5 minutes? Which is why I caution everyone from taking trades in the first 30 minutes to one hour into the bell. Market needs to pick a direction and right now we’re still at the tipping point.
UPDATE 10:30am EST: Well, we breached that 1120 on the NQ - some buyer out there really wanted to get passed that one (having fun Ben?).

Talking about correlations - the Yen is moving with the market today - that are usually the days I take a step back and just watch. Market is very confused and is doing the opposite of what Europe or the overnight futures were promising. TNX is also stuck around 2.72 and is not moving - usually bad for equities - but today some buyer is kicking things uphill since exactly 10:00am EST - feels like program trading to me.
UPDATE 11:00am EST: We are nearing 860 on the SPX. Here’s what 2sweeties said this morning:

…you may find that 860 is actually a very good level to go short.
In fact, regardless of where you set the 100% odds, it may actually be that 860 is a good early short level, but if you go short there, make a small bet because the odds there are low…

There you have it - I’ll jump in here with a small futures short in my ES paper trade account, in particular since the MZ is pointing down right now - but it’s not red yet, so if we breach 865 I’m out again.
BTW, I failed to mention that there is a ‘weekly’ short RL at 857, maybe that one is worth watching as well.
UPDATE 12:03pm EST: Red signal now again - hope it holds. We’ve been chopping around here for an hour now and the tape today is getting on my nerves. Show of hands - who’s having fun today?
UPDATE 12:27pm EST: Retest of the 857/860 again. I would be very very cautious trading this market today. It seems that we get creeping action to the downside for a little while and then we have those sudden bursts of buying kick in. Also, these bursts seem ’scheduled’ - I was writing down the signal switches and look at this:

Green 10:32am
Red: 12:02pm
Green: 12:30pm

Am I being paranoid or does this reek like program trading?
UPDATE 1:16pm EST: I just put up a in Firefox. This way you leeches can see it full-screen and no manual interaction is required. This might help in particular with the 4×1 grid I just put up. The poll seems to have strongly favored all time frames, so let’s give this a shot. If I change it into a 2×2 grid the indicators get too squeezed. Let’s see how this goes. If nothing else we might have to decide which time frames are the favorites if we have to go back to a 2×1 grid. Let me know what you guys think.
BTW, hating the tape today - not touching this. Never seen the zero switch that often in a matter of 2 hours - very annoying.
UPDATE 1:41pm EST: Okay, we are approaching pivots on the YM, ES, and NQ right now. Watch your short positions and be on a look out for either a snap back or a little retest at least:

YM: 8340
ES: 838
NQ: 1120

UPDATE 2:07pm EST: Have you guys noticed there is always a fake-out move on the ES at the time of those reports being released? In 75% of the cases if you see it swing up it goes down two minutes later. Cheeky monkeys those institutionals

UPDATE 2:12pm EST: Great - now we rally on weak economic data - which is why I usually dismiss the news. Case in point again - investors out there have reached a state of complete irrationality.

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-4-1 06:19

December 2nd, 2008 11:00 pm Market Forecasts 45 Comments

Today’s tape was horrid, as expected, but based on the input I was getting throughout the day our new seemed to be pulling its weight just nicely. Apparently many leeches are clamoring for some kind of time stamp when the indicator started signaling and I will do my best to make that happen. Please understand that I am limited by the TOS coding environment, which I hate to say is a bit limited.
Alright, on to tonight’s market wrap up:

Although we had a bit of a whippy start the day ended strongly bullish, pretty much the opposite of what we recorded yesterday at the closing bell. The S&P clearly ended in the hands of the bulls as breadth closed at a ratio of 10:1 positive.

Now, on the surface not much really has changed since my weekend update. As a reminder I’m showing once more an approximation of the tormented wave pattern I am expecting for intermediate wave (4) - again for more details check the Sunday post. So far we dropped pretty much exactly to where I think we would end up, and then rallied into what could either be a b-wave of an unfolding zigzag, which in turn would be the larger degree a-wave of a flat ending around 811 on the chart. Or it could be the beginning of the zigzap up ending at 950, which in turn would be the b-wave of said flat.

Let’s take a closer look at this. I used the words ‘on the surface’ because yesterday’s drop was extremely violent and Berk reported one of the most negative breadth ratios in his own records. This did not feel just like a corrective b-wave to me, and thus put the wave (3) scenario back into play. Now, had we kept going down today I would give this probability even more credence but today’s tape leaves us with some uncertainty. Of course there is a line in the sand which is around 774 on the SPX. If we drop below that then, according to the rules in Elliott Wave Theory, something else is going on. Which would most likely be a large ending diagonal and that would paint a target at somewhere below 740, the latest bottom (more clarification if we actually start moving in that direction). Anyway, I’ve highlighted the areas which separate the two scenarios for your leeching convenience.
The next few days will bestow us with additional clarification - in the meantime we’re a bit in limbo land, quite frankly. I mean, we got that huge gap down yesterday, many of us barely grabbed a handful of puts and it was over before we knew it. Now we’re bouncing back up and nobody really knows what tomorrow will bring. If we drop, will we punch through 810 and hit 768? That would be a nice move and I’d be sure to ride that sucker down as there is nothing much in between holding things up. If we rally from here it’ll get a bit more complicated - there are tons of short and long RLs (call it the retracement zone from hell) and it might get a bit bouncy. Berk posted a few long candidates yesterday and maybe playing some spreads on those might work as Mr. Vix is yodeling back up in the 63 zone. 860 or 887 would be spots where I would start dipping into puts though - and I might just wait for one of those targets.
In general I’m a bit burned out by the options market by now. Volatility is back in vogue and the market makers are not giving us much of a break. I tried to play some ITM diamonds uphill and got screwed when the Dow dropped back by only a few ticks. At the same time I was paper trading a futures contract and that sucker had racked up $400. So, I’m really starting to wonder why I’m bothering with options right now. UNLESS we are at a defensible entry and are expecting a multi-day or multi-week drop/rally - as outlined in my Sunday post. Those are the times I love to dip into options as risk is more clearly defined and I also know where to draw my line in the sand. And I am determined to start taking more long term positions going forward.
Where we are right now makes things tough for option traders. I’m not worried about theta - heck when’s the last time I held an option for more than 3 days? Slippage is what I’m worried about as well as widening bid/ask spreads as things move against you. Pretty toxic environment if you ask me, on top of everything else. With futures you’ve got none of those problems - except for margin requirements of course. But if you trade one e-mini contract at a time and don’t hold overnight you should be okay.
I have mostly been paper trading the ES futures in the past few days based on entry/exit signals on the zero. Got a green line and bought one mini contract - then forgot about it. Next time I look the damn thing is up a grant!

Got a red signal, so I sold two to be short one. Bought that one back when we swung back into green. I’m going to keep paper trading like that for a little while but if I keep making profits this way consistently I’m going throw more real cash at it (so far I’m only snacking).

Before I go - I’m not touching Gold with a ten foot pole right now. It’s still in that limbo zone it’s been bouncing around in for over a month now - and the tape before that was pretty conflicted as well. Once we move outside that I’d be happy to jump in either way. Still expecting a drop to 650 here but I’m not going to burn theta on this sucker and get whipsawed around. Correlation is with the market right now it seems. Here are Trader’s Dan’s musing on the topic:

Okay – let’s try to deeply divine this incredibly sophisticated and complex trading program that is being employed by the marvelously inept modern hedge and index funds – ready? Stock market UP – BUY COMMODITIES… Stock market DOWN- SELL COMMODITIES… I know it is hard to wrap your mind around such a complex algorithm, but I think that if we concentrate really hard and apply ourselves we will be able to grasp the vagaries of this amazingly sophisticated strategy. I sure am glad the best and brightest traders on the planet are handling this strategy as I for one would no doubt be lost in its complexities.

That guy cracks me up - I could be wrong but this sounds like cynic

I sometimes feel for those poor gold bugs as they keep going through their own little hell on a constant basis. But I long ago decided to just follow the tape and try not to make sense of it. And the Elliott Wave count so far has won the day consistently in the past six months or so.
Finally - without posting any more charts - the credit market remains broken. The Moody’s BAA vs. TYX yield spread painted a record high again yesterday - TED spread keeps hovering above 2, and the BDI is flat lining. Bernanke is now buying massive amounts of long bonds, which explains why the TNX is completely unreliable as a market indicator lately. Just ignore it for now - and never underestimate Helicopter Ben

Cheers!

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-4-1 06:20

December 2nd, 2008 10:58 am Intraday Update 266 Comments

UPDATE 10:51am EST: Market is pretty much flatlining right now. I know the zero is pointing up right now but I want to see a bit more confidence in buying before I jump in here (either way). Apologies for setting all the long term indicator to ‘mixed’ right now but we are truly at a fork in the road right now. Anyway, here are today’s RLs again:

UPDATE 11:43am EST: Raise your hand if this market is going on your nerves. It seems we’re not going anywhere - a lot of teasing but it’s not putting out (reminds me of a bad date). Berk grabbed a few puts at the peak which seem to work out nicely for him. I’m a bit more cautious (or should I say paranoid). The zero is still pointing up right now and I have a hard time taking on puts unless I see a sliver of red at least on the 30 minute chart. How are you guys faring out there?
UPDATE 12:26am EST: I have to say - so far that zero is working like a charm today

This has been quite some conflicting tape. I paper traded some ES futures against it (yeah, I’m a pussy - but we’re still testing it) when I got the ‘green light’ on the magnified zero (MZ). Bought two contracts at 10:28am EST and so far profits are $1,500. Have any of you guys watching this thing? Grabbed a trade because of it?
UPDATE 2:45pm EST: I find it pretty encouraing that the PZ (1 hr) has not given us a short signal yet, and lo and behold we pushed back in the last 30 minutes. The MZ (30 min) did exactly what it was supposed to - give us a short term signal to play the downside and it went green as soon as the gravy train was over. So far I’m loving it - how about you, my trusted steel rats?
BTW, I’m almost done with options. Grabbed some BIDU and MA when we departed the NQ and YM pivots an hour ago and got reamed by the MMs when the MZ turned green. So, I said ’screw it’ and traded a futures contract up to the pivot again. Made it all back in like 3 minutes. Loving E-mini futures more and more.
UPDATE 3:54pm EST: I think the subject of this posting was more than prescient. Horrible tape today but the upside was that it gave us a good opportunity to further put the zero through the wringer. Not to pad my own shoulder here, but so far I’m proud of the little sucker. I’d appreciate some reports from the front. Has it been helpful in picking your trades today?
Choices, choices…December 1st, 2008 9:11 pm Market Forecasts, Update 59 Comments

What a day eh? Market closed down across the board, dropping as much as 11.85% ($RUT). Volume was fairly large, especially after the tepid volume of the holiday week. Breadth was quite bearish with $INDU, $OEX, and $NDX closing with all issues in the red, and the $RUT and $SPX combined only managed to tick up 35 issues. In fact, this is the worst breadth that I have on record (feel free to correct me). I mentioned to my brother that if we were starting a sizeable sideways or upwards move, we should be able to single out one sector of the market that was holding the market up. I looked, and trust me…nothing.
Unfortunately, this leaves me with a dilemma. Prices dropped with a hellish fury, but not beyond a breaking point in the wave count. Therefore, wave 4 up remains on the table, and a potential of wave 3 down continuing remains. My view is that wave 3 down is still unfolding, and the current weakness is likely working out an ending diagonal. In this view, we should get another couple of modest pushes lower, followed by steep snap-back rallies. If at some point we tear off below the recent lows, perhaps another variety of wave V of 3 is unfolding.

Honestly, the decline itself was not unexpected, but the breadth was pretty startling. My view continues to be that the downside holds the upper hand, but I am extremely gun-shy, as this type of market reversal is getting tough to read. Another push or two outside the 2.0BB would be a great exit signal for me. For now, I would be targeting 1000 in $NDX, but expecting it to break.

I have been looking at some stocks, and I have a few good long ideas as we get closer to a bottom (or at least a snap-back rally). ESI looks good above 90, as that is strong resistance. It is a decent relative strength candidate, and has been coiling for a move for a few months now. If it doesn’t break 90, it would be a good short.

The next few are on weekly charts but are looking pretty sweet. We have GMCR which is a nice little bull flag forming and it is pushing it’s head on the upper boundary. A nice break and I could be in.

Next up is INT which could work out well if it can regain the upside of the 200 week MA. Until then, I am a little skeptical, but keep the odds on the long side with that flag-like formation.

Finally we have ISYS, which is a little interesting. While the markets are pushing their downside equivalents of the 2000 crash, ISYS is nearing its 2000 peak of $27.27. A break of this level could trigger some serious buying.

Keep in mind that these are on the weekly timeframe and will likely be making new highs when the market is rallying in wave 4. With that, I am treading lightly into new lows, and keeping an eye out for some of these nice moves to start taking off.
Skål!
Mole here - just wanted to tag on tomorrow’s (12/2) RL chart for my trusty steel rats:

Here are also the RLs for Gold as a link - don’t want to clutter up Berk’s post.
Cheers!

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-4-1 06:21

December 1st, 2008 10:40 am Intraday Update 218 Comments

UPDATE 10:36am EST: I can appreciate your impatience, my dear leeches, but the zero doesn’t like the tape right now. Bear in mind that this indicator is supposed to tell us where the market is going, not where it has gone already. So, if we gap 40 points on the SPX it does factor that in, but that action already happened. Hope that makes sense to your small collection of neurons. I have put up the 30 minute version on the right side, and it doesn’t like this tape either. What can I say - either it knows something we don’t or it’s plain out wrong. So, don’t let this thing stop you if you feel strongly about a continued drop here.
But paleeezee stop with the ‘it’s not updating’ posts - it is updating and taking a screenshot once a minute. Just didn’t move - maybe go back and re-read my Sunday post. That longer term prospective didn’t kick in just yet, did it? Hopeless…
Anyway, here is the daily RL chart:

UPDATE 10:54am EST: Some of you might have noticed that the 30 minute version of the zero briefly swings below but is back into the green on the next update. Let me remind you guys that it needs to stay there at least 30 minutes in order to be permanent. So, even the impatient among you should heed this warning.
I did notice however how the NQ is leading the market today - the ES has been sideways for the last hour or so and the NQ keeps dropping steadily. Not looking good for tech…
UPDATE 12:40pm EST: I have removed the zero until I can fix the lag. It seems one of the TOS thinkscript functions is broken, which causes the obvious delay in painting the indicator. Apologies - I’m working on it - I know what’s going on, just need to find a way to fix it.
UPDATE 1:43pm EST: Okay, I think the zero is fixed now - you can blame my algebra - grrrr.. Bad news is that we might have missed out on a big move. Please don’t hurt me…. :-}
UPDATE 2:47pm EST: I put up a grid of four time frames - please vote on the poll on your right which one you guys prefer.
UPDATE 3:25pm EST: Some folks have been asking me for some ‘historical’ charts for the shorter term indicators. I can only go back 20 days and here are the screen grabs for those:

30 minute zero
15 minute zero (slightly smoothed)
5 minute zero (strongly smoothed)

UPDATE 3:44pm EST: I think we might bounce around 817 on the SPX - I would close out any short term puts before the close, or if we touch 817.
UPDATE Closing Bell: I made very little $$ today (just some DIA puts and that DLTR turtle soup trade from Friday) as I was busy finding that &%$@#* bug in the zero. See how dedicated I am to my leeches??

Anyway, I’m really sorry about it being broken in the morning when we needed it the most. But that’s what beta testing is all about. If nothing else it helped me figure out a bug in the calculation that caused the delayed update - unfortunately I had to do it during trading hours to make sure it worked. Anyway, let’s move forward and see if we can make this thing work for us. So far a lot of folks here like what they see - many thanks for giving it the benefit of the doubt. Your kind words and constructive criticism are appreciated - even that new kid Anon came around in the end.
BTW, I’m loving those retracement levels - we hit the one I thought would be the first serious candidate. Keep it up 2sweeties!!! Between the zero and the RLs we are unbeatable now

Berk will do the update tonight. He’s all pumped and ready to kick ass.
Anatomy Of A Missed OpportunityNovember 30th, 2008 11:43 pm Market Forecasts, Trading 54 Comments

Alright, ladies and leeches - we have a lot of material to go through tonight, so let’s dig right in:

Before we cover what’s ahead of us, let’s take a stroll down memory lane: to when the SPX was still trading around 1,280 and the VIX was hovering slightly above 20 - aaah, the good ole’ days. The date is July 23rd 2008 - EvilSpeculator doesn’t exist yet but I was already churning out hard core EWT analysis like a mad monkey. The image above is one of the charts I posted on OptionAddict that day - which incidentally caused a bunch of people to complain and I was eventually told to take my sorry ass and my charts elsewhere (btw, I’m not blaming Jeff here - he actually offered me to post in a separate section).

So, let’s see what actually transpired in the weeks and months after. Well, I hate to rub it in, but I was spot on, even nailed the target of (2) by about a ten point margin. Also was right about the abyss scenario I kept pimping back then. Now, I’m not posting this to gloat (maybe a little) but rather to make an important observation, and thus I expect that all of you glu sniffing steel rats pay full attention just this once. Because what I am proposing tonight is that we need to change the way we approach the market for the foreseeable future.
Fact is, we all didn’t see the forest for the trees. Why you ask?

Because had I grabbed only $4000 worth of Dec 110 SPY puts that day it would have been worth $66,650.- on November 20th. Now, remember that the VIX was pretty low back then and we weren’t at the top of wave (2) just yet. Therefore, it gets a lot worse. How about if I would have bought those same options three weeks later when wave (2) actually peaked?

Had I grabbed $4000.- worth of Dec 110 SPY puts that day I would be sitting on roughly $102,000 right now. And had I bought $20,000 worth I’d be half a Millionaire right now.
I know - coulda - woulda - shoulda. But the sad fact is that the market did exactly what I expected it to do. And although I made fine profits in the last few months it was emotionally taxing and a boatload of work, especiall considering all the interventionals, the drama, the sharp counter rallies, etc. I got into literally hundreds of trades and also paid a nice chunk of commissions.
Now, something tells me that I wasn’t alone in screwing this up. I actually would wager that everyone reading this has been in the same camp - jumping in and out of the crazy tape of the past few months and having relatively modest profits to show for.
BTW, for the record - I doubled my account in the last six months, which is okay. At some point I was up 300% but then came that notorious short sale ban on September 18th, which got me back to where I started. Doubled my account again since then, so I should be satisifed with my trading performance. Maybe, but when I look at those numbers above I just want to puke.
There’s this thing about me - I’m might not be a genius, but I always learn from my mistakes. And knowing what I know now, and also knowing that the PPT is basically out of bullets, except maybe for their relentless use of their printing presses, I would like propose the following.
Screw the daily drama and let’s focus on the big picture!
Now, let’s talk about the future and how I see it:

I’m going to spare you the usual market overview - not going to talk about the NYMO, the Bullish Percent, the TNX, and all that other jazz. We all know this market is heavily overbought and that the breadth was super bullish last week. We had five consecutive up days and this has not happened for a quite a while. We are all salivating at the chance of shorting this market, but I’m not going to touch on that. This is what I’d like to reserve for the intra-day updates which we’ll post in the coming days.
If you look at the chart above you’ll see type of tape I am expecting for the coming months. When it comes to corrective waves there are two primary elements that need to be satisfied:

Price correction
Time correction

The price correction is something Elliotticians usually nail pretty accurately because the rules are well defined. I’m not saying we always get it right but we usually get close enough. What’s important to understand right now is that a wave 4 typically ends within the price range of subwave four of 3. I know you’re all scratching your greasy skulls right now, so I’ll just throw it out there: Our price target for intermediate wave (4) is between 1000 and 1040 on the SPX. Could overshoot - yeah - but if we breach 1060 I’d have to re-assess the entire wave pattern.
Now the time correction gets a bit more complicated, after all there are eleven different corrective patterns and combinations in Elliott wave analysis. But we do know that wave (2) was what we call a sharp correction. I mean, it was not complicated at all - went straight up and was done without much of a fuss. I’d call that a sharp correction. The guidelines of wave formation in EWT tell us that we often find alternations within an impulse wave. If wave two of an impulse is a sharp correction, expect four to be a sideways correction, and vice versa.
So, let’s think about this: We already pushed up like crazy last week and are more than half way through our price correction. I frankly have doubts that we’ll now just paint a nice b wave and be done with (4) just in time to unpack our X-Mas presents. Probably not - what we’ll see most likely is a complex sideways pattern not dissimilar to what I’ve draw on the chart. There are dozens of scenarios that could play out, and I’m sure everyone has their favorite. But let’s settle on the fact that it won’t be a quick one and it it’ll probably drive us nuts all the way through winter.
The Evil PlanHence, what I’m suggesting is two-fold.

Let’s play the swings of course as they are probably large enough to make it worth our while. After all the VIX has settled down a bit and with some good luck we get it into the 40 range once we hit 950 on the SPX. So we could pop into calls as well and hopefully not get squashed by the dropping shoe of vega. And perhaps our brand spanking zero indicator can help us call the turning points. More about this further below.
Most of you are aware what will follow wave (4) - a nasty last drop to the downside which should put us closer to 600 on the SPX. That would be a 400 point drop and the profit potential boggles the mind. Thus, I propose that we start bulking up on July or August puts once we start approaching the 1000 range (wave c of (4) to the upside). The risk at this point is very manageable and even if we overshoot we will sit on about six months of time value and will be able to shrug off any monkey business. I plan on plunking 20% to 40% of my assets into those long term options. Then I’ll just forget about them and expect to be smiling big time come July. If you think 2008 was bad - 2009 is going to be brutal for the economy and we need to position ourselves properly ahead of time.

The ZeroNow, before I return to my pillow fight against the Swedish Mud Wrestling Team I would like to point everyone to a new I posted last week while most of you were passing out on tryptophan. I call it the zero and it’s my very own evil creation.
It’s alliiiiivvee!!!! Allliiiiivvvee!!! Mmmwuuaahaaaaahaaaaa!!!
There’s also a handy little widget on the right sidebar which should get you there from any of our daily posts. The page reloads itself every five minutes, which is more than enough to keep you up to date (it’s a medium term trend indicator and it’s configured for a hourly chart). There’s also a handy tutorial, which I strongly recommend you take a look at before you send silly questions my way. I think I’ve covered the gist of it but if have left anything out please let me know.
The zero is going to be freely available until early January. Call it a large scale acid test - if it can continue calling the trend reversals as it has in the past few weeks, then I will be available on a monthly subscription basis after the free test period. The fee will be fairly modest and should pay for itself within a single trade, so even you bum leeches should be able to afford it.
Of course I don’t have to to explain what it could mean for us if the indicator continues to nail those trend reversals. Could be the antidote to many whipsaws we had to trade through - and we all know that volatility is not going to subside much in the months to come.
Well, for now it’s all yours, so kick the tires while you can.
Cheers!

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-4-1 06:21

November 28th, 2008 10:09 am Intraday Update 73 Comments

UPDATE 10:01am EST: Morning my evil rats & leeches - as you can see I have been keeping myself busy during Turkey Day - no tryptophan poisoning for me. Alright, first order of business are the retracement levels. No, the widget has not been removed or broken - it’s smart enought to figure out that 2sweeties didn’t post an update as he’s on vacation. So, I guess I’ll have to jump in here. Remember, we didn’t have a down day for 4 days, which means the short RLs remains the same. I have added the new long RLs - just in case we actually get a drop today.

Here are the calculations - feel free to double check (as if anyone ever does - lazy butts!!).
To go long:

To go short:

There you have it. I will follow up soon with some additional info about our . If you haven’t seen it in action yet, take a peek to your right - I have added a new widget. Let me know what you guys think - but be gentle, it’s just a start of us spearheading an extension of our trading system.
UPDATE 10:48am EST: Crude just tanked by $2.-. Berk and I love C and JPM, but are too chicken to grab it on a day like this - I know we’ll live to regret that.

« Older Entries
Newer Entries

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-4-1 06:23

November 26th, 2008 9:54 am Intraday Update 138 Comments

UPDATE 9:49am EST: The futures were down quite a bit overnight due to all this:

Guess, none of that matters anymore as we’re still hovering at 846 rallied to 849 right now. Here are the RLs for you guys:

UPDATE 11:50am EST: Call it what you will but the uptrend is continuing, obviously. I would be very cautious about jumping into the short side as the next RL is around 906 (see chart above). Again, please note that the continued positive breadth indicates that we are in intermediate wave (4). However, it’s very interesting to note the velocity of this move. (4) is supposed to be a multi-month pattern - so, as it’s making so many head waves in the past few days this gives additional credence to the notion that we are in for a multi-week sideways pattern. How’s this - it might go to 906 - reverse - go to 799 or 763 - reverse - rinse - lather repeat. Could be fun to play if done right - Berk and I are on the case - more later.
UPDATE 12:50pm EST: Berk here. In checking an hourly chart, I am seeing 5 waves putting up their final touches on the rally from the bottom, and right into the resistance level specified on Monday. Making a strong case forming for a little short action here. There might be one last thrust towards 1200 in $NDX, but we will take it as it comes. I have also noted that the $SPX continues to lead the $NDX. Be advised.

$NDX - 5 up into resistance!

UPDATE 1:57pm EST: Sorry for the little outage we just had. My hosting company is complaining that we had too many database queries as soon as the server was up again - LOL

Looks like we’re getting some serious traffic, might have to upgrade soon.
UPDATE 2:22pm EST: I set up a cache for the site - should be faster now. Let me know what you guys think.
UPDATE 3:27pm EST: We just touched 886 and bounced back a little, which is strange as it’s actually a long RL. Question here is now - are we getting 906? Again, look above for the daily RL chart.
UPDATE T minus 7: I would strongly discourage everyone from holding positions over Turkey Day. We are in limbo right now and although this market remains extremely overbought it can continue its rally on Friday. You have been warned.
UPDATE Closing Bell: Happy Thanksgiving Everyone! I’ll be here on Friday with an intra-day update. Until then - try not to overdose on tryptophan.

		搜索
热搜: macd K线与均线飞狐分时指标共振指标分时橡胶牛股炒股入门

一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

浏览过的版块