一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-27 10:50

The chart below is a weekly, as opposed to the more common daily, of the Russell 2000. A drop beneath today's lows would be a very compelling bearish picture for this index, which I have not been trading for quite some time.

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My current index position is in the S&P 500, which is the cleanest chart for me to read at this point. My stops on this are set at 1406.20.

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"Fizzler" (FSLR) had another nice drop today, reaffirming how broken its former support is.

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And a similar situation can be seen with ISRG.

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-27 10:51

And a similar situation can be seen with ISRG.

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AMLN, one of my equity shorts, had a nice double-digit percentage drop today.

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And I am re-attracted to real estate shorts (both individual ones and the broad IYR ETF).

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Akamai has been a slow pattern to develop, but it's looking nice.

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-27 10:52

Akamai has been a slow pattern to develop, but it's looking nice.

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One of my favorite, cleanest patterns right now is CHTT, which I intend to hold into the high 40s.

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And, finally, one specific real estate short is LRY.

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After Friday's fireworks, today was a snoozer. Oh, well! Not every day can be 400 points off the Dow, can it? Good night!

Posted: 04:25 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-27 10:52

六月 06, 2008 - 11:57 上午Crude is Rude!It is remarkable to me that on a day that crude oil is limit-up and blasting to never before seen heights......

that we have an OIH that looks like this..........

and a FSLR that looks like this!

Look at the AMAZING perfect touch to the trendline by today's shooting star. WOW!
My beloved son is having an end-of-year pool party which I'll be attending (along with my beloved daughter, whom I'll make sure is safe in the pool), so I'm going to be radio silent for a while. I'll do a post tonight, though. I imagine I'll be in the mood to talk about the markets, assuming our corrupt, stinking government doesn't interfere in the final hour of today's action.

Posted: 11:57 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-27 10:54

六月 05, 2008 - 02:59 下午The Indefatigable ConsumerI'm starting to worry that this economy is mysteriously stronger - - either through truthful data or otherwise - - than we had suspected. In spite of a host of unprecedented challenges, including a collapsing housing market and exploding energy costs, the U.S. consumer still seems fully committed to keep using debt to buy stuff. And buying stuff is what makes this country tick. And for all that, it was an awful day for the bears, with a rise on the Dow far in excess of 200 points.
The tidy gains made over the prior three days were wiped out in one session. What bothers me isn't they forsaken profits - - it's the wasted time. It takes a lot of time to analyze charts, do good analysis, execute trades, and set responsible stops. That time is well spent when it yields profits. But in a see-saw market when paper profits get nuked by a single strong day, the only gain to be had is exasperation.
One could, I suppose, avoid such frustration by piling into any of the momentum stocks that are trading, such as the one below. I just don't have the personality to do it, just like I didn't have the personality in 1999 to pile into Internet stocks. I'm too scared of when the music is going to stop playing. Shame on me for being that way, but it's just how I'm put together. The stock below, for all I know, could go up ten-fold from here. But a chart like this simply makes me nervous.

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Besides strong retail sales, another thing pushing up the market (particularly with oil and commodity issues) was the resumption of the dollar's fall and oil's rise. Crude oil futures pushed nearly 5% higher today alone.

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Another disturbingly bullish sign is the $XBD. I had mentioned a few days ago the nascent series of higher highs and higher lows had been eliminated. I'm embarrassed to say this was incorrect due to a data error from our price feed. This error has been corrected, and as you can see, the setup for a reversal in this index is still very much intact.

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Some charts are weaker than others, of course. The Dow, for example, seems to be simply fighting its way back in the context of the 800 points it lost over a couple of weeks.

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-27 10:55

Some charts are weaker than others, of course. The Dow, for example, seems to be simply fighting its way back in the context of the 800 points it lost over a couple of weeks.

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Whereas the Dow Transports are in new record high territory. Not yearly high. Record, never-seen-before high. In the face of $130 oil, this is astonishing.

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Tech-related indexes have gone up 20% or more in the past 10 weeks or so, and some of them are approaching the underside of their broken trendlines.

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An even easier one to read is the $COMPQ. This close within molecules of that blue resistance line. Unless tomorrow starts weak and stays week, my interpretation of these charts is going to have to change.

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-27 10:56

An even easier one to read is the $COMPQ. This close within molecules of that blue resistance line. Unless tomorrow starts weak and stays week, my interpretation of these charts is going to have to change.

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The $NDX pushed to a record high close for 2008. It was only on Tuesday that this index was on the cusp of breaking its supporting trendline. {Expletive deleted}.

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My former buddy $RUT close at its high for the day and a new high for 2008. Very broadly speaking, it is still in a lower-lows, lower-highs pattern, but you have to step back to a pretty long-term chart to see it. The past 10 weeks have been wretched for bears.

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The stories vary more widely when you get down to individual stocks. AAPL is pushing towards the underbelly of its trendline, but the problem with that strategy is that a stock can keep making new highs while obediently staying beneath its former supporting line. My stop on this is not far away.

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-27 10:57

The stories vary more widely when you get down to individual stocks. AAPL is pushing towards the underbelly of its trendline, but the problem with that strategy is that a stock can keep making new highs while obediently staying beneath its former supporting line. My stop on this is not far away.

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Even though FSLR shot up over 13 points today, I am not worried about this position, as we are still below the very plainly broken trendline, and I am confident that oil will, over the weeks, soften up, causing this to soften as well.

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AGN is presenting those without a position with a potentially low-risk opportunity to get into this short. Unlike many of the issues I follow, this one has been in a general downtrend for months.

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ATI was one of the very few issues in my portfolio to do well today (that is, go down, even if by a little). In the face of a day like today, that's a good sign.

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-27 10:58

ATI was one of the very few issues in my portfolio to do well today (that is, go down, even if by a little). In the face of a day like today, that's a good sign.

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CHTT is also very attractive; this price is approaching its neckline again, which as most of us know represents the ideal entry point for head and shoulders patterns.

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Anyway, today stunk. And I'm sorry to have been so out of pocket. I was not in the mood to talk about the markets, as you might guess, and I had my share of technical issues in the morning. Let's see if Friday is any better or if it simply makes this week stink up the joint even worse.

Posted: 02:59 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-27 10:59

六月 04, 2008 - 02:34 下午Friday LoomsThere seems to be a trend in my trading lately. The day will start off poorly. My portfolio will go deeply into the red. Then it will turn around, and it will end up nicely in the green. This has happened every day this week. It's sort of nervewracking. It's not that I'm monkeying around with my portfolio - - I'm doing hardly anything. But it seems the bulls are making a valiant effort at the start of each day, and it starts to fall away from them at some point.
The intraday chart of the S&P 500, shown below, includes everything from the mid-March nadir to the current price levels. It's pretty easy to see the head and shoulders pattern stretching over the past six weeks. This looks like a nice topping formation. But it all comes down to Friday morning's jobs report. That will provide either a bearish climax to a good week or a bullish wreck to a formerly bearish week.

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Conversely, the $VIX over the same span of time sank from about 36 to less than half that amount, and it has climbed up into the lower 20s again. It looks like there's plenty of room left on this.

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It is, however, make-or-break time for many indexes. In one day, the bulls could retake control or the bears could continue the momentum downward. Just look at the chart below: get it over 2,550, the bulls are in command; get it below 2,450, and the bears are. Simple as that.

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It's a similar story with the more narrow $NDX; we must break Wednesday's low to get seriously bearish.

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-27 11:00

It's a similar story with the more narrow $NDX; we must break Wednesday's low to get seriously bearish.

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As you know, I bailed on my $XAU position a few days ago (profitably, but a bit early). I've still got a few gold shorts which are doing great, and with the dollar's newfound strength, this could really take a tumble.

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Some stocks seem to be incapable of finding a bottom. Just look at MBIA.

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And, for that matter, AMBAC. Can you believe this was nearly a $100 stock just last year?

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-27 11:01

And, for that matter, AMBAC. Can you believe this was nearly a $100 stock just last year?

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Ah, yes, and First Solar. I've said repeatedly $250 is the key level. Well, this goose is cooked. I'm hanging on to this position so I can watch it grow.

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A newer position for me is FWLT. I've had bad luck with this in the past. Let's see if we can do better this time.

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With energy softening, there are a lot of high fliers with plenty of room beneath this. Cimarex is a favorite of mine.

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-27 11:01

With energy softening, there are a lot of high fliers with plenty of room beneath this. Cimarex is a favorite of mine.

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Lastly, Valmont is at the high end of a broadening top.

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I am, by the way, on my way to my CMT. There are three examinations, and I passed the first one (I found out yesterday). I have to admit, I'm a little shocked. There were so many point & figure questions (about which I know next to nothing), I was sure I had flunked. Onward!

Posted: 02:34 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-27 11:02

六月 03, 2008 - 02:55 下午Touch of GreyTwo days in a row with the Dow down triple digits. I like it.
I like even more the fact that we are getting away from the idea that a reduction in crude oil prices is all the economy needs to thrive again. A

The equity markets pushed beneath May's lows today in many cases, and we seem to be on the "right side" of the Fibonacci retracement line.

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The Transports, too - - worrisome of late - - could be in the process of turning the tide. That lifetime high we saw in May could be the high water mark for quite some time. A fall beneath 5,150 would cement that.

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The the NASDAQ, a favorite of mine to watch these days would make its bearish case clear again if it fell beneath 2,450 Friday's unemployment report may be the catalyst to really take the market down, since there's no real economic news on the scene until then.

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-27 11:03

The the NASDAQ, a favorite of mine to watch these days would make its bearish case clear again if it fell beneath 2,450 Friday's unemployment report may be the catalyst to really take the market down, since there's no real economic news on the scene until then.

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Looking closer at the $NDX, we got tantalizingly close to breaking the channel, but instead it touched it perfectly. Maybe next time, eh?

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If oil really tumbles, how far could OIH go? Judging from this graph, I'd say the low 180s.

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Russell 2000 - formerly my favorite - remains stubbornly above its retracement line. We have another 20 points to fall before we're in the clear.

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-27 11:05

Russell 2000 - formerly my favorite - remains stubbornly above its retracement line. We have another 20 points to fall before we're in the clear.

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I do, however, have puts on the S&P 500, which is weaker.

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In my IRA account, I can only buy positions, so I am forced to go long either equities or inverse funds. I've got a mix of both. A few favorites right now include CPI Corp....

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......Firstfed (much riskier).......

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-27 11:38

......Firstfed (much riskier).......

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.......the QQQ double inverse fund........

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.......and Toll Brothers (although I'll be a lot more enthusiastic if it breaks above $26).

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On the short side, CEPH's pattern is terrific, provided it doesn't cross above the line you see here.

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-27 11:39

On the short side, CEPH's pattern is terrific, provided it doesn't cross above the line you see here.

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First Solar closed at its trendline both yesterday and today. I am optimistic this is going to take out the $250 level, which is critical to its plunge.

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I have good hopes for ISRG as well. Its formerly bullish pattern is ancient history now.

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If the Transports roll over, there are some stocks which enjoyed the sensational rise in 2008 which will fall just as fast. Ryder, a major component, is one of them.

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-27 11:40

If the Transports roll over, there are some stocks which enjoyed the sensational rise in 2008 which will fall just as fast. Ryder, a major component, is one of them.

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