一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

Here's one of my hockey stick plays - CNQ. The target price for the inverted head and shoulders was met (and exceed by a point or two), and I could easily see this getting chopped 20 points.

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I've got CAT puts with a stop at last week's high. Failed bullish breaking is my thinking here.

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First Solar ("fizzler") has lost 15% of its value since last week. Cracking that ascending trendline at about $250 would mean party time. Gosh, where's Beanie? Oh, I forgot. He's mute when things aren't going his way. Puss.

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I've got puts on RIMM too. Another failed bullish breakout.

hefeiddd

I've got puts on RIMM too. Another failed bullish breakout.

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Sunpower is another bearish play on solar. This stock is obviously a lot weaker technically than FSLR.

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BIDU dropping 20 points - whoo hoo! It's easy to picture another 100 points getting nuked off this baby.

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ISRG was another honey today. Just look at the price collapse away from that trendline!

hefeiddd

ISRG was another honey today. Just look at the price collapse away from that trendline!

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I've got a variety of real estate shorts, which has my interest after a long hiatus.

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And I have trouble believing generic online brokerages are going to thrive once the bear market resumes.

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For an energy company, this is a pathetic chart.

hefeiddd

For an energy company, this is a pathetic chart.

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SLB is yet another failed bullish breakout (FBB, not to be confused with BFF).

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And that's all I've got to say about that.

Posted: 04:46 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink

hefeiddd

五月 21, 2008 - 03:58 下午Zap!                     
Posted: 03:58 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink

hefeiddd

五月 19, 2008 - 03:03 下午Nerve-WrackingEverything is relative.
When you get used to the market soaring day after day, and yet again the market blasts 140 points higher, you will gladly take a 40 point gain on the Dow. Not to mention a drop in the Russell 2000 and NASDAQ.

Things were really miserable earlier today. The Russell was looking dangerously in blast-off mode, and everything under the sun was soaring higher. And then suddenly the rug got pulled out from underneath the bulls' stinking, corrupt hooves.
You may be puzzling as to why this happened, but now I can finally reveal it. There was an International Symposium on the Cooperation Between Government and Markets held in St. Petersburg.  Everyone was there - - Bernanke, Stephen Schwarzman, Paulson, Abby Joseph Cohen, Jim Cramer - - everybody. This gathering was a shameless formalization of the relationship between the major governments of the world and the principals of the investment banks. This conspiracy excited the markets higher early in the day.
What they didn't realize was there was a certain blogger who had infiltrated the group using false credentials. You can see the mayhem that erupted about 30 seconds into this video. I barely made it out of there with my life.


To add to the confusion, there were "riots", according to Jeff Kohler, erupting over at his blog. For some reason the comments section was getting pretty rowdy with comments comparing Slope with Addict. Jeff had to quell the noise, so he offered this.
All right, on to the markets. First, China. The old saying about "what everyone knows isn't worth knowing". I tend to think this is the case with China. Yeah, yeah, the China century. I've heard it. I get it. We're the new Britain, they're the new United States. I don't think so. And God help their environment and all the health disaster that's brewing there.

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This chart still intrigues me. If we break 170 hard, this could get exciting again.

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Transports made a new never-before-seen-in-history high today, but gave up virtually all of it. Check out the shooting star on this baby.

hefeiddd

All right, on to the markets. First, China. The old saying about "what everyone knows isn't worth knowing". I tend to think this is the case with China. Yeah, yeah, the China century. I've heard it. I get it. We're the new Britain, they're the new United States. I don't think so. And God help their environment and all the health disaster that's brewing there.

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This chart still intrigues me. If we break 170 hard, this could get exciting again.

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Transports made a new never-before-seen-in-history high today, but gave up virtually all of it. Check out the shooting star on this baby.

hefeiddd

Transports made a new never-before-seen-in-history high today, but gave up virtually all of it. Check out the shooting star on this baby.

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Pitifully, I remember the days when I was short OIH and had 192 as my stop loss. Here we are at nearly $220. It's getting awfully close to that Fib fan, don't you think?

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Speaking of shooting stars, here's another beaut - - the S&P 500. Don't get me wrong; the markets aren't acting bearish. But this bull is sure looking weary.

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I'm the unfortunate holding of DUG right now, and it's been pathetic. We're scraping the bottom of that sloping support line, as you can see. And the explosion in volume over the past few months is amazing.

hefeiddd

I'm the unfortunate holding of DUG right now, and it's been pathetic. We're scraping the bottom of that sloping support line, as you can see. And the explosion in volume over the past few months is amazing.

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Now on to a few equity shorts. ABT is pushing up against a major broken trendline.

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Albemarle (I have no idea what they do, and couldn't care less.......) is in a similar pattern.

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Bottom-fishing is dangerous, but there are a handful of stocks that look intriguing for a bullish play. IFC is one of them.

hefeiddd

Bottom-fishing is dangerous, but there are a handful of stocks that look intriguing for a bullish play. IFC is one of them.

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Akamai (AKAM) is really interesting, its price approaching two important levels of resistance.

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And our buddy AAPL, whose puts made some people some green today (and I got a few thank-yous on that; you're certainly welcome).

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CELG could be in the early throes of a nice drop, with a clean stop around $66.

hefeiddd

CELG could be in the early throes of a nice drop, with a clean stop around $66.

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I've got puts on Coach (COH), which also has a clean stop around $38.

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Solar stocks aren't looking too great these days, and my puts had a nice little uptick today on First Solar.

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I'm not sure what's in store for investment banks, but I've put my neck out on puts for one of them - - Morgan Stanley. This isn't a bad head and shoulders pattern.

hefeiddd

I'm not sure what's in store for investment banks, but I've put my neck out on puts for one of them - - Morgan Stanley. This isn't a bad head and shoulders pattern.

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Google was relatively weak all day, even when the market was very strong. I've got a stop on this one at $592.

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Finally, Lindsay, which I don't think I've ever mentioned before. I shorted this one earlier today.

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Suffice it to say I ended the day more cheerful than I was a few hours before. I hope to hell things start to turn around. Otherwise, I'm going to have to make more flying contraptions.

Posted: 03:03 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink

hefeiddd

五月 03, 2008 - 07:47 上午FizzlerI'm thinking I was hasty in dumpy my FSLR puts.
Looking at the past history of this stock, the last time it had an ascending triangle breakout, everything about the breakout was healthy - - the volume, the retracement - - the whole schmear.

But this time, the breakout is a mess, which suggests to me this breakout is going to become a breakdown instead.


Posted: 07:47 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink

hefeiddd

四月 25, 2008 - 05:46 下午Yo, Godot!Let me start by saying that this tax rebate that Bush was yakking about all day is going to stimulate only one thing: the deficit. The notion that this political gimmick is going to magically turn the sinking economy around is absurd. Those checks are going to be as potent as the Gerald Ford W.I.N. buttons from three decades ago.
Now, there has been something very weird going on with IWM volume. I was going to mention it a couple of days ago, but I shrugged it off. But it's going on long enough that I have to point it out. That way - - the volume is alternating! High one day. Low the next. High one day. Low the next. It's almost a perfect oscillating pattern. I have no conclusions about this. It's just...........weird. The volume graph is starting to resemble a comb!


One area where steady volume is not a problem is crude oil. This market pushed toward the $120 zone today. It's always something. This time is was a U.S. ship shooting a missile or something. God knows. It seems almost any news pushes crude oil higher these days.

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Although OIH was, in turn, higher, it isn't making new highs like crude itself. I am very bearishly positioned with respect to oil. It's either going to break very soon, or else I'm going to have a lot of stop-loss orders on my hands.

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One of my many positions in this area is BHI, mashed up against its broken trendline.

hefeiddd

One of my many positions in this area is BHI, mashed up against its broken trendline.

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SLB has surged very strong for most of 2008. This pattern is more speculative.

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And, with all due respect to beanie (and you can take that however you want), I've got puts on two major solar stocks. Sunpower......

hefeiddd

.....and heavyweight First Solar.........So I can already tell you next week, if FSLR has blowout earnings and I get stopped out, beanie will have 57 posts about how right he was. If the stock plunges, he'll be nowhere to be found. Count on it.

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In spite of the markets (irritating) strength today, I still see equities as fundamentally broken at this point.

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The S&P 500, on which I own puts, is mushed right up against the underbelly of its broken channel as well as its descending trendline. That's on top of the psychologically important 1400 level.

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The Russell 2000, on which I also own puts, is in a similar pattern.

hefeiddd

The Russell 2000, on which I also own puts, is in a similar pattern.

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And the NASDAQ is banging against its 25% line on its channel. Now this one I'm more nervous about, since it is sporting a not-too-terrible inverted head and shoulders pattern.

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But, as I mentioned yesterday, I draw some comfort from the formidable bearish pattern on the $MSH (whose options, regrettably, are so thinly traded as to not be worth pursuing).

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Apple had a strong weak, but I have reason to believe this candlestick today presages a drop next week.

hefeiddd

Apple had a strong weak, but I have reason to believe this candlestick today presages a drop next week.

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And, in my opinion, IBM blown gassed its way about as high as it's going to go against that trendline; I've got a stop here at 125.

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Lastly, the $XBD index has encouraged me to buy puts on investment banks, which have recovered sharply since the BSC debacle five weeks ago. I've got positions in Lehman......

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.........Goldman........

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.........JP Morgan..........

hefeiddd

.........JP Morgan..........

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.......and another "Morgan", this one Stanley.........

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It's been weeks and weeks since we've had a juicy, consistent bearish hammering of equities. Oh, I miss those days. But I remain confident that one day soon the bear will be back. He'd better. Otherwise this blog is going to get pretty dour!

Posted: 05:46 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink

hefeiddd

四月 18, 2008 - 03:58 下午A Tale of Two Cities

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had everything before us, we had nothing before us, we were all going direct to Heaven, we were all going direct the other way--in short, the period was so far like the present period, that some of its noisiest authorities insisted on its being received, for good or for evil, in the superlative degree of comparison only.

I think this sums up the current state of affairs. On one hand, the economic news is terrible, people are losing their jobs and their homes, and the cost of living is exploding higher. On the other hand, you've got hedge fund managers with annual take-home pay in the billions of dollars, gigantic 300 foot personal yachts, mile-high skyscrapers, and all the other madness of showy wealth. One wonders when the increasing wealth gap is going to plunge the world back into socialism. What's happening now is not good.
The indexes today shot higher, ignited by Google's earnings the Citicorp's not-so-awful report. Commodities - and oil in particular - were simply nuts today. Here's a snapshot of key indexes and what I view as some important lines:

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