一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

二月 09, 2009 - 10:00 上午A Trio of Put IdeasToday is a weird one; we keep flipping above and below the "no change" line, and I guess everyone is on pins and needles about the "stimulus" package. While we're waiting, here's a trio of charts to contemplate.

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Posted: 10:00 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink

hefeiddd

十一月 05, 2008 - 08:35 上午Endless Stream of Shorts

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hefeiddd

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More to come throughout the day......

Posted: 08:35 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink

hefeiddd

九月 09, 2008 - 04:41 下午I Am the Third Revelation!        
         
Posted: 04:41 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink

hefeiddd

九月 03, 2008 - 04:52 下午When to Take Profits?Let me start off by saying this - - - if and when the S&P 500 finally breaks 1261, that level is going to change from our worst enemy to our best friend, because it is going to represent a wall of resistance that will be very tough for the bulls to overcome. Because this level is getting hit again, and again, and again............and again..........it is getting stronger all the time. That is bad for us now, because support is strengthening all the time. But if anything manages to act as a catalyst to finally push the S&P below this level, we have a new best friend. Time will tell.
There was a time on Wednesday when it looked like the market might finally crack, but no such luck. The thick red line you see for the $INDU is continuing to do a yeoman's job as support.

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Whereas IWM is clinging like iron to a magnet to its own Fibonacci level, which represented the exact midpoint between today's open and close.

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Most mesmerizing of all, of course, is the S&P 500 itself. This is, by my count, the eighth instance of the market trying to push below this level and failing to do so. If 1261 is breached, you are going to see an incredible rush for the exits.

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A closer look via minute bars amplifies this point.

hefeiddd

A closer look via minute bars amplifies this point.

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Today was a very good day, however. I was especially delighted with the third day in a row of a meaningful drop in the $UTIL. Just one more day like this would crack that neckline without question.

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As I mentioned earlier, I took a fair bit of my oil/gold/ag profits off the table. Just look at the volume soar on OIH over the past week! I am thinking the dollar is going to weaken temporarily and gold/oil will push higher. This doesn't mean they are entering a new bullish phase; it simply means there could be some short-term strength.

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I have found USO to be another helpful chart to monitor when crafting a "theme" for my trading. Its approach toward the fan line compelled me to take some profits, but I would also note that any countertrend rally, for me, will simply represent new shorting opportunities.

hefeiddd

I have found USO to be another helpful chart to monitor when crafting a "theme" for my trading. Its approach toward the fan line compelled me to take some profits, but I would also note that any countertrend rally, for me, will simply represent new shorting opportunities.

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As an object lesson, take a look at how a security can cut through its fan lines one after another. I expect the likes of OIH and USO to do the same.

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Knowing when to take profits is very tough - perhaps one of the toughest chores a trader faces. I saw enough charts that looked like the one below to convince me it was time to take some money off the table. This isn't a bullish graph, but the price levels certainly have reached a level of at least medium-strong support. A cut beneath such a line, of course, would be bearish, but I lightened up a lot of positions by 1/3rd, and in some cases, I took them out of my portfolio altogether.

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One item I sold (near its high today, in fact) was DUG. This has had a super profit in the very short time I've held it, but I'm not comfortable banking on it breaking above the summer's highs. Not yet, at least.

hefeiddd

One item I sold (near its high today, in fact) was DUG. This has had a super profit in the very short time I've held it, but I'm not comfortable banking on it breaking above the summer's highs. Not yet, at least.

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There were a few standout issues today. MasterCard (MA) is seriously breaking down.

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First Solar's failed breakout has created a marvelous bearish chart. I bought puts on this a week ago, and they are doing very well.

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And Foster Wheeler (FWLT), in spite of having lost nearly half its value already, looks like it has plenty farther to fall.

hefeiddd

And Foster Wheeler (FWLT), in spite of having lost nearly half its value already, looks like it has plenty farther to fall.

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I'm trying not to get greedy, since things are going so well. Responsible and "fresh" stops are the key, as is taking at least partial profits. I'm looking forward to seeing what happens next.

Posted: 04:52 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink

hefeiddd

八月 07, 2008 - 04:23 下午Fear of Music         
Posted: 04:23 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink

hefeiddd

七月 31, 2008 - 02:51 下午The Shrinking EconomyThe government released its advance estimate of GDP in the 2nd quarter, and it came in rather light - - - plus unemployment seemed to bump up, thus causing the market to take a nice 200+ point tumble on the Dow today. What was interesting wasn't so much the estimated Q2 2008 figures, but the fact that the U.S. government revised the past several years - all downward! - since they somehow magically discovered their earlier pronouncements were too high. Indeed, Q4 2007 - which, let's face it, was some time ago - went from a positive number to a negative one. Thus, the commerce department actually managed to confess that the economy is indeed shrinking. Big freakin' surprise.
There seems to be a widely-held notion (particularly by the likes of Cramer) that energy and indexes are inversely related. In other words, if oil can only manage to go down, then it's going to be a party for equities. This simply isn't the case. Witness yesterday when energy went up and indexes went up too - - or today when they both went down. More broadly speaking, I am positioning my portfolio for a substantial drop in both energy and indexes. Cheapening oil is going to be a symptom of a weak economy..........not its salvation.

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The Russell, which is where my index puts are focused, wasn't as weak as the Dow today, but it did lost six tenths of a percent. I am setting my stop-loss very tight, at yesterday's high, since I don't want to get caught up in a surge just in case the S&P does indeed find its way up to 1325.

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Speaking of the S&P, it fell more than twice as much as the Russell. The boldface retracement you see here remains my "line in the sand" for this particular market.

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Now that July is behind us, I thought I'd take a look at the year to date performance of the big indexes so far. The Dow is a big loser, having fallen over 12.5%.

hefeiddd

Now that July is behind us, I thought I'd take a look at the year to date performance of the big indexes so far. The Dow is a big loser, having fallen over 12.5%.

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The $NDX is down about 10%, having been breakeven back in late May.

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And the Russell is down merely 5%, having actually been positive in late May. Even on a percentage graph, you can plainly see the head and shoulders pattern I am playing (which spans May into part of June).

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I remain cautiously bearish on banks, both commercial and investment. Wells Fargo is one example, although I have no position in it now.

hefeiddd

I remain cautiously bearish on banks, both commercial and investment. Wells Fargo is one example, although I have no position in it now.

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And Bank of America is another, in which I do have a big position, since it's a cleaner chart.

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First Solar's explosive earnings after the close yesterday propelled this stock twenty dollars higher earlier today; it ended up three - count 'em - three shiny pennies. This failure of a bullish breakout is encouraging for this put-holder.

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Late yesterday would have been a good time to re-enter some energy shorts. HES did a nice retracement.

hefeiddd

Late yesterday would have been a good time to re-enter some energy shorts. HES did a nice retracement.

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And OI sported a very impressive 12%+ tumble.

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I re-entered my Priceline position today as well; it could go a little higher, but the horizontal line you see below is my stop-loss, so the risk is pretty small.

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I tripped across some stills from a 1975 IBM Presentation. It's pretty awesome. If you want to check it out, click away.

Posted: 02:51 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink

hefeiddd

六月 26, 2008 - 06:01 下午So What Next?         
         
Posted: 06:01 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink

hefeiddd

六月 16, 2008 - 02:14 下午Quiet DayFor those that are paying Prophet users, I'm doing a quick three-question survey on the site. If you're a Prophet user, please go ahead and take the survey, since I'm getting plans buttoned down for the next Prophet.
It was a pretty quiet day on the market. The Dow was down, but the other indexes were up, and there was really nothing on the economic or world scene to give the market any guidance. Tomorrow morning will be quite different, since there are three important economic reports hitting the wires before the market opens - Housing Starts, the PPI, and Industrial Production. (Toolbox users can see this on the new Economic Calender).
Many of the indices, on an intraday basis, have head and shoulders pattern with retracements taking place over the course of the last couple of trading days. I've shown the S&P 500 a couple of times already. Here is the China Index, with a similar pattern:

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Lehman Brothers (LEH) announced their first quarterly loss ever as a public company this morning, and a relief rally took place among all the investment banks. I mentioned last week that I thought LEH was at a bottom, and it added as much as 30% to its price in just a couple of days. The Securities Broker/Deader index is right back to its Fibonacci level again.

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The same can be said of the Transports.

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The NASDAQ Composite is safely below its major resistance level, shown in purple below. I purchased a large QQQQ put position near today's highs based on my speculation that the retracement on the NASDAQ was just about done.

hefeiddd

The NASDAQ Composite is safely below its major resistance level, shown in purple below. I purchased a large QQQQ put position near today's highs based on my speculation that the retracement on the NASDAQ was just about done.

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The pattern on $MSH strengthens this belief. Obviously piercing the $620 level would eliminate this point of view.

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The volume today was unbelievably low. Just look at the QQQQ volume - - - this is at "holiday" levels.

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I don't have much to say about individual stocks. I got out of about 10 positions today - - some to take profits, others to cut risk - - the agricultural stocks are still on a moon trajectory.......

hefeiddd

I don't have much to say about individual stocks. I got out of about 10 positions today - - some to take profits, others to cut risk - - the agricultural stocks are still on a moon trajectory.......

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.....and I re-entered FSLR today, with a stop at $289. I let a nice profit on these puts slip away due to surprising strength, with the price cutting back above the former supporting line. Once more into the breach, dear friends.

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Tomorrow morning is almost sure to have some fireworks. I'll see you then.

Posted: 02:14 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink

hefeiddd

六月 09, 2008 - 04:25 下午AAPL=Another Anticlimactic Product LaunchAfter Friday's big sell-off, equities started today off strong, but it was a very inconsistent day. At one point, in spite of the Dow being up triple digits earlier, all the major indexes were in the red (including the NASDAQ, which was down a hefty 2%). Sadly, there was late-day strength, and the Dow managed to tack on 70 points. All the same, much of the damage done on Friday was still intact.
One of the big stories today was Lehman Brothers, which I remarked on earlier today. The case for some short-term support here is decent.

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The broader brokerage picture, however, is still fairly bleak. The $XBD is down 40% from its peak, but as you can see from this graph, there's still plenty of open air beneath current prices. Another 50 points off this index seems totally plausible in 2008.

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The widely-anticipated iPhone announcement came today. I mentioned a couple of times last week what old news this was, and the classic "buy the rumor, sell the news" rule held true here. At one point, AAPL was down about 9 points. Even with the drop "only" at $4.03, this chart is more attractive than before.

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The Dow itself is a mystery to me at this point. There is much more resistance than there is support. The market just needs a catalyst. But this pattern is just a mess right now, and it's hard to see what's next.

hefeiddd

The Dow itself is a mystery to me at this point. There is much more resistance than there is support. The market just needs a catalyst. But this pattern is just a mess right now, and it's hard to see what's next.

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The $COMPQ is a little easier for me to interpret. We've got very strong resistance at 2,550, indicated by the purple line, and a drop below 2,425 would be very bearish.

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The $NDX sneaked below its support line Friday, but it plunged below it today. This line is very obviously broken at this point.

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The chart below is a weekly, as opposed to the more common daily, of the Russell 2000. A drop beneath today's lows would be a very compelling bearish picture for this index, which I have not been trading for quite some time.