一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-27 08:24

Of all the indexes, the one I find easiest to interpret and trade these days is the Russell. We are smack dab in the middle of retracement levels right now, which I always find to be an unhappy spot. I am far too uncomfortable with the general trend of the market to be buying calls, so I'm either going to be long puts or out of the position altogether. You can plainly see that, should we eventually crack the 645 level, we've got a ginormous head and shoulders pattern on our hands.

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Looking closer, you can see we're precisely in between the retracements. There's a skosh of support in the 695 area. It would take something pretty nasty to provide the strength (errr, weakness) to get $RUT to break that lower level. We shall see.

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The S&P 100 also approached its retracement level today, almost perfectly touching it. I keep getting the feel that, barring shocking news, the selling pressure is really going to abate. But I am not convinced enough of that prospect to close out positions; it's simply too likely I will leave profits on the table. I'd rather align myself with the broad trend, which I have almost no doubt is firmly in place.

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My chart of the S&P 500 doesn't reveal any rock-solid answers either. We are diddling around the ~1260 retracement. I have seen 1170 cited in so many places as the obvious support zone, it makes me wonder what the market is going to do to prove us all wrong! It just seems too easy an answer.

My chart of the S&P 500 doesn't reveal any rock-solid answers either. We are diddling around the ~1260 retracement. I have seen 1170 cited in so many places as the obvious support zone, it makes me wonder what the market is going to do to prove us all wrong! It just seems too easy an answer.

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I want to make one last comment on contingent stop orders. A fair number of people have written me about putting stops on their options positions - - that is, the option instrument itself. In my opinion, that is really the wrong way to go. Options are far too thinly traded, their spreads too wide, and their trading too volatile, to justify such an action.
I think by far the better choice is to have a contingent stop. For those who don't know about this, it simply means that if the underlying instrument does something or another, then your option order goes through. Let's say you have puts on AAPL, but your hypothesis will be broken if AAPL crosses above, let's say, $190. A contingent stop would simply assert that, should AAPL cross above $190, an immediate order will be created to sell your options position at the market (you could use a limit order, but I think that too would be foolhardy).
If you use stops - and I hope you do - I cannot recommend strongly enough making use of contingent stops as opposed to the "normal" stop orders. I am pretty sure most brokers offer this, but if yours doesn't, that probably is reason enough to change your firm.
I think I'm going to hang up my keyboard for the day; thanks for stopping by, and many thanks for the marvelous comments section and all the fantastic contributors there!

Posted: 03:59 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-27 08:25

七月 24, 2008 - 11:43 下午Real Life Bear EncounterIt's nearly midnight as I am typing this. A few minutes ago, I encountered a wild bear.
Nope, I'm not making this up. Let me explain. As regular readers know, I am at Fallen Leaf Lake near Tahoe. Tonight I decided to do some star-gazing, since everything is so clear here - - you can easily see the Milky Way, and Jupiter is almost painfully bright. So I went out on the boat dock, did the star thing, and started heading back to the lodge.
A couple of guys were staring at something, and since I'm the curious sort, I hunched down to see what they were looking at. It was a brown bear, probably about five feet long, staring back at us, maybe fifteen feet away. Even though I heard a story yesterday about a woman whose arms were both taken off by a bear (in Alaska, not around here), I didn't feel nervous. We made some noise, and he galoomphed away. He was really very beautiful, and I was glad to have seen him. Although the thought did occur to me how ironic it would be if I was maimed or killed by a bear, of all things. I think he could sense I was a kindred spirit, so he left us unharmed. Had I been Abby Joseph Cohen, he surely would have attacked, in spite of the smell.

I had compiled a ton of charts tonight, but my connection is rather slow, so I'm actually going to make this quick. I had a very, very good day today. I'm not sure if it was my best percentage gain ever, but it was awfully close. I was blown away how well things went. Even though energy has slowed its descent, my energy puts did terrific, and I'm still wondering if OIH is going to break beneath its fan line to start the next act of this play.

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I am extremely short banks, and I find the huge rally provided by the bulls a few days ago to be a tremendous blessing. It made things cheap for bears.

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In all the tumult, there are a couple of ways to play it - - either play the bullish side by taking advantage of battered prices, or play the bearish side by taking advantage of pullbacks. CAL is an example of the latter, since I shorted it after it rebounded hundreds of percent in just days.

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Whereas CROX was the opposite. I bought a bunch of this when it was at about $7.50, and I sold it all at about $9 a couple of days later. Thank goodness I made this an opportunistic trade, because the opening bid should be around $5 or so tomorrow. That was one close call.

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-27 08:26

Whereas CROX was the opposite. I bought a bunch of this when it was at about $7.50, and I sold it all at about $9 a couple of days later. Thank goodness I made this an opportunistic trade, because the opening bid should be around $5 or so tomorrow. That was one close call.

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I have puts on RKH, which, in addition to my puts on stuff like LEH, WFC, and BAC, is a great way to play the "cascade" we're witnessing.

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I'll belabor my $UTIL short again, but at least this time I'll post a target, which I've tinted below. If we break the neckline, my target is about 370-380.

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I am still long DUG, and this has been a fantastic trade. I started accumulating this when it was in the high 20s, and let's face it, this is a very bullish looking formation, particularly with the volume surge.

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-27 08:31

I am still long DUG, and this has been a fantastic trade. I started accumulating this when it was in the high 20s, and let's face it, this is a very bullish looking formation, particularly with the volume surge.

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I'm going to leave the mountain of charts I had pulled for you unused. I'm going to bed now, hopefully avoiding any nasty dreams about bear attacks. Since he just headed off in a different direction, I'll remember him as cute instead of fearsome. Kinda like another bear you know! G'nite.........

Posted: 11:43 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-27 08:42

七月 23, 2008 - 07:30 下午The RescueI have to say, I'm both disappointed and angry. The gigantic bailout that the Federal Government is shoving through the system creates a series of winners and losers. Specifically:
Winners

The CEOs and other executives of FNM and FRE, all of whom pull down seven-figure and eight-figure salaries and have pulled one of the great corporate heists in business history
The lower-middle class blockheads that gobbled up real estate at sky-high prices, thinking they would be the next Donald Trump, who are going to simply walk away from their "investments"
The shareholders of FNM and FRE, who have been spared a $0 stock

Losers

All the citizens of the United States, particularly those who pay taxes
Honest, hardworking people that got mortgages through honest means, pay their payment promptly each month, and have received no help or favors from anyone (I am pointing not-so-subtly at myself right now.....)

So the honest and hardworking folks are the fools. And the charlatans and crooks are the winners. And the entire country slips that much closer into oblivion with this travesty.
Gee, Tim, how do you really feel about this?
I have some s'mores to make, so this will be short (as a side note, no one makes s'mores like me - - - I am a zealot about the marshmallow being just right; God help you if you are with me and your marshmallow goes up in flames; that means instant death). Below is a great which screams "more drops to follow"; don't you think people figured the worst was over at each one of those tinted areas?

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The indexes might have a little more upside left - - in the coming weeks, maybe an S&P as high as 1325 or so - - but at the moment, the DIA is up to its 32.6%.

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The $UTIL is on a fast track to a massive H&S pattern. Amazing.

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My energy puts had a dynamite day. OIH is pushing that fan line. Could it crack to the next level below?

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-27 08:43

My energy puts had a dynamite day. OIH is pushing that fan line. Could it crack to the next level below?

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I have been buying puts on brokerages and banks. I hope this graph helps explain why.

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The Russell hit its Fib perfectly today. I lost about 10k on $RUT puts early in the day, but I re-entered the position at almost exactly the top, and those are in the green now. Not enough to compensate for the loss, but hey, the trade is only a few hours old!

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USO has cracked its fan line; the energy market has really fallen to pieces quickly, as I had hoped.

USO has cracked its fan line; the energy market has really fallen to pieces quickly, as I had hoped.

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I'm off to the campfire. I'll be looking at more charts tonight. If I see anything interesting, I'll post it in the morning. Adios!

Posted: 07:30 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-27 08:44

七月 10, 2008 - 12:03 上午Freude Schoener GoetterfunkenI have two persistent problems in my trading. One is my innate bearish nature. I'm not sure I'll ever be able to fix that. The second is an inability to accept just how far a market can travel. Strangely, this isn't confined to underestimating how high a given stock might go; it also goes the other direction. Even though I've been having a great time in this bear market, I frequently think that there is simply no way a particular stock can go any longer, and lo and behold, it keeps plunging. So, uber-bear that I might be, I don't give the potential for a security to get wiped out enough credit.
Over the past seven trading sessions, the markets have been struggling to make a bottom. The news media have been, on a daily basis, saying that This Is It, but each day It doesn't happen. We just keep grinding away in a trading range. Any meaningful pop lasts only a few hours, or a day at most.
This morning (and I'm referring to Wednesday morning, even though I'm typing this nearly at midnight), I entered the market with a large put position on the Russell 2000, and I was terribly nervous about it. The market was a little bit weak, and I sold out of the position (which had a net positive change for the day, but a net loss for the position), and I felt relieved. I was astonished to see the market continue to be weak, in spite of a mountain of good reasons for at least a short-term bounce, so I re-entered the put position, which was extremely profitable by day's end. As you can see in the DIA chart below, Wednesday created a substantial bearish engulfing pattern, but given the "grind it out" state of the past seven sessions, I wouldn't give it as much creedence as I would had it occured at a market's peak.

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Looking at the $INDU's retracements, it seems that the next target (assuming yet more weakness) would be about 10,700. That seems like a really low number, but it's only about 400 points away. We've already fallen 3,000 points since last October's peak.

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A lot of us here were, until recently, very frustrated with our energy shorts. Not any longer. My agriculture and energy shorts are doing dynamite, and even if the general equity market does turn higher, I'm holding on to those positions. Look at the marvelous breakout of DUG, with beautifully behavior on the trendline.

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People keep talking about a lack of volatility. They're talking about the $VIX, which certainly isn't at panic levels. But for the more basic definition of volatility, we've had it in spades. Just look at the movement of the Russell 2000 over the past six weeks.

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-27 08:46

People keep talking about a lack of volatility. They're talking about the $VIX, which certainly isn't at panic levels. But for the more basic definition of volatility, we've had it in spades. Just look at the movement of the Russell 2000 over the past six weeks.

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The one remaining bull market is the $CRX, and I am counting on this one to fail. This will be the Last Man Standing.

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The S&P is below its retracement, but, just as it did in late May and early June, it may simply be screwing around outside the bounds of its normal trading zone without defining a new range. I've tinted the areas to show you what I mean.

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The SPY, on the other hand, is still neatly within the retracements.

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-27 08:48

The SPY, on the other hand, is still neatly within the retracements.

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Even though BX has already fallen a lot, I'm thinking of adding this short position to my portfolio. Man, oh man. I won't even start talking about these clowns.

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Another cool chart I tripped across tonight is PLCE.

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I sold my CME puts a week ago for terrific profits, but that was hasty. This thing just keeps fallen, having lost over half its value over the course of 2008. Breathtaking!

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-27 08:49

I sold my CME puts a week ago for terrific profits, but that was hasty. This thing just keeps fallen, having lost over half its value over the course of 2008. Breathtaking!

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I mentioned all the potential profits I think are stored in my energy shorts. This is the kind of chart I am talking about.

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.........and this one......

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CSX has shaped up very nicely here.

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-27 08:50

CSX has shaped up very nicely here.

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Oh, and then there's my favorite, ICE. I just love this position. Love it to pieces.

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I bought a single put on $NDX today (fairly deep in the money). Continued weakness could shave another 100 points off here.

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It's officially Thursday now (wee hours of the morning), so I'm off to bed. Farewell!

Posted: 12:03 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-27 08:51

七月 07, 2008 - 03:54 下午Rocky Mountain HighGreetings from world-famous Denver International Airport. Some of you may think that I travel a lot. I don't. I just complain a lot about it when I do. Today was a fine example of why I hate traveling - - it takes me away from the markets! Incredibly, with just a few "quickie" opportunities to check into the market, I had a dynamite day, even making money (both directions) with some large Russell put (and then call) positions.
Lately I have been very correct about:

Fall in ag-related prices
Fall in oil-related prices

....and I've been very incorrect about.......

Bottom being in on investment banks
Equity markets being in position for a sustained bounce

Luckily, for those last two, (1) I haven't touched an investment bank, either long or short, for weeks; (2) I've been able to play the long and short side of equity index volatility very profitably.
This morning, I had 1000 shares of DIA, and when the Dow was up 100, I had that funny feeling that there wasn't going to be any more upside short term. I sold out (for a whopping $600 profit, which is pretty puny for a $112,000 position!) and bought Russell puts (since I was amazed to see Russell actually slightly down, in spite of the Dow being up 100 at the time). Well, the Dow lost all that, and 150 more, and those Russell puts turned out fabulous. Later in the day, I went long Russell calls and closed those out for a profit as well. I am - - as is the case these days - - in no index positions at all. I am simply uncomfortable at these levels holding big positions overnight.
$XBD seems to simply have no bottom. I have given up guessing. It'll probably take another major brokerage going belly-up.

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DIA seems to be hitting at least a little support on its Fibonacci, but it's very, very weak. If we get a multi-week bounce, I'd expect a lot of strength on this one.

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The head and shoulders formation I've been watching for weeks on $UTIL continues to very slow shape up.

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OIH (finally!!!!) is starting to fall apart. It's about freakin' time.

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-27 08:52

OIH (finally!!!!) is starting to fall apart. It's about freakin' time.

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I am blown away how fast the Russell has fallen. Clearly here we have huge support from mid-January and mid-march. If we break mid-March, look out below.

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Adding credence to the idea of support is the $OEX touch of the retracement as well.

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S&P 500 broke its March lows (just look how far it has traveled since mid-May!!!). This has been a far more rapid bear swing than we've enjoyed in a long time.

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-27 08:53

S&P 500 broke its March lows (just look how far it has traveled since mid-May!!!). This has been a far more rapid bear swing than we've enjoyed in a long time.

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There's a lot of high-quality chatter going on in the comments section, and some of it is centered around DUG, which broke above resistance today on very, very strong volume.

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Now a few favorite short positions......CERN is falling away from resistance......

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XEC is one of many energy shorts that has great potential and has already paid off.

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-27 08:54

XEC is one of many energy shorts that has great potential and has already paid off.

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If MasterCard breaks that major trendline at $240, it's an easy trip to $220, which is the measured target.

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Add PXD to the energy list....

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I'm crazy about SOHU. I own a ton of these puts.

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-27 08:55

I'm crazy about SOHU. I own a ton of these puts.

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AZO is move away from the retracement it made toward its diamond pattern.

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BHI has taken a while to ferment, but I think it's finally there.

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COP has sweet potential as a failed bullish breakout.

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-27 08:56

COP has sweet potential as a failed bullish breakout.

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DECK has been weirdly strong, but I've got hope for this one.

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And EOG is doing fantastically; very little support anywhere in sight!

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I'm getting on a plane now. I will not have another post until VERY LATE Tuesday night. See you then!

Posted: 03:54 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-27 08:57

七月 03, 2008 - 09:49 上午That's a WrapThere's ten minutes left in the trading day as I type this, but I'm done. This week has been spectacular, and I am ending it with a greatly reduced exposure, having taken many profits off the table. I have no index positions of any kind, although if I were forced, I would be strongly inclined to buy DIA calls, which look sensationally bullish. I am preparing for a plane flight, but I'm going to try to make time for at least a short post before I leave.

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Posted: 09:49 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink

三月 03, 2008 - 01:37 下午The ArcI'm sorry, but today's post is going to be a bit bore-i-fic. Had we closed down, say, 100 points, I'd have more to say, but with a close of only 7 points off the Dow, it's clear we are still in the Price Range Purgatory that has become so maddening.
For the Russell 2000, which was rather weak today when compared to other major indexes, at least we're starting to "arc down." It's almost uncanny, since I am able to draw an oval that neatly matches the low prices that are being hammered out. It's slow, it's steady, and it's getting kind of tedious.

So we may be, for the zillionth time, having to brace ourselves for another bounce to the upper end of the range. The only big event this week (which is planned, anyway) is the jobs report on Friday morning before the open. Of course, the Obama/Clinton results late Tuesday night will be the big political news, but I'm not sure how much that would affect the markets. After all, it's pretty obvious that, barring a terrorist attack on the U.S., one of these (probably Obama) is going to be our new President, and taxes across the board - including, notably, capital gains - are going to go way higher.
Looking at the DIA's doji pattern - - the first I've seen on the DIA in quite some time - - strengthens the idea of a bounce tomorrow. Bummer. I was really looking forward to things getting mushy again!

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The bottom line is that my portfolios profits went up huge today, and then sank back down to where they started. A total waste of a market day. So there's really nothing more to say at this point, since I'm exactly where I was at this weekend in both my thinking and my portfolio value. I'll see you tomorrow morning, when perhaps there will be more to discuss.

Posted: 01:37 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink