一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

I used to be excited about LNN, but this chart just isn't acting right at all. I may bag this one.

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Lastly, SLB is behaving itself beneath resistance, and I could see this easily getting down to $80.

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Thanks for all the nice comments and emails about the prior post; they are much appreciated! Good night.

Posted: 02:55 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink

hefeiddd

六月 02, 2008 - 07:53 下午Patience!This week is relatively light on economic events, with the exception of Friday's unemployment report, but today still provided some interesting fireworks.
I've been following the $XBD (AMEX Securities Broker/Dealer index) with great interest over the past year. This index peaked in June, and it got smacked hard in July, October, January, and March. A few days ago, I was starting to wonder if the bottom had been reached with the March 17 Bear Stearns bailout. One could see a lower in mid-March, a higher low in April, and a higher low in May. Perhaps a new uptrend was in the works.
I think today answered that question - - the trend appears to still be down. If we take out April's lows, which we can close to doing today, the entire "higher lows" pattern has been zeroed out.

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The downgrading of the investment banks had sweeping effects throughout the market. The Dow was down 200 points intraday, although it closed down 134 points. It is still dancing around its Fibonacci retracement, but it is on the underside of it with good prospects of moving beneath April's lows.

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Although high-tech had a very big bounce from mid-March to mid-May, the action over the past couple of weeks may be marking an exhaustion point. The $MSH, shown below, tried last Friday to push to a new high for the year, but it fell short. Today the price of the index started falling away from that level, and a crack beneath 580 would seal the fate of this index.

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A similar phenomenon can be seen with the $COMPQ, although the bearish point is easier to judge; a break beneath 2,430 would clearly indicate lower prices ahead., as the failure to move above the resistance line is a loud signal of the bulls' failure.

hefeiddd

A similar phenomenon can be seen with the $COMPQ, although the bearish point is easier to judge; a break beneath 2,430 would clearly indicate lower prices ahead., as the failure to move above the resistance line is a loud signal of the bulls' failure.

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Another interesting NASDAQ pattern I am watching is the ascending price channel on the $NDX (NASDAQ 100). A dip beneath last Wednesday's low price would crack the lower support line and, in my estimation, signal we have entered a "C" wave downward.

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I have a few puts in semiconductor stocks (like KLAC) since the one index I was fairly bullish on a couple of months ago seems to have petered out as well - - the $SOX.

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I mentioned last Wednesday that the S&P had closed precisely at its retracement line. It pulled the same stunt again today, matching the retracement almost to the hundredth of a point. Obviously the price is noodling around this line, trying to figure out which way to make a break.

hefeiddd

I mentioned last Wednesday that the S&P had closed precisely at its retracement line. It pulled the same stunt again today, matching the retracement almost to the hundredth of a point. Obviously the price is noodling around this line, trying to figure out which way to make a break.

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I got a bit of flak for my AAPL puts, but I stand by this call. I have great hopes for this trade.

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We've all been watching FSLR, and today's sharp movement downward has pierced the supporting trendline. I am optimistic that I've got about $50/share more in intrinsic value to pad onto my FSLR puts.

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Although GENZ has pierced its neckline, I'm a bit frustrated that the prices haven't moved more plainly lower. I find the strength in the face of this pretty good H&S pattern to be puzzling.

hefeiddd

Although GENZ has pierced its neckline, I'm a bit frustrated that the prices haven't moved more plainly lower. I find the strength in the face of this pretty good H&S pattern to be puzzling.

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Capital One has also been a long-time favorite stock on this blog. I had even suggested last week, given its proximity to the supporting line., that it might be a long candidate (although I simultaneously said I wouldn't buy it myself, because I was afraid the trend would break). Sure enough, it broke today. This has been a frustratingly slow-moving stock, but I can at least say that I think the likelihood of a bullish move by COF is now kaput.

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Several nice folks thanked me for my CHTT suggestion. This H&S, unlike GENZ, is clicking along nicely. Traditional projection measurements would put the target price on this at about $48.

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Lastly, I sold some INFY short. Many folks in the comments section have puzzled over why I short really strong stocks and not those already getting beaten up. I am starting to take this advice seriously. INFY has plainly been in a downtrend for about 17 months now, and I felt that the recent surge representing a relatively low-risk entry point.

hefeiddd

Lastly, I sold some INFY short. Many folks in the comments section have puzzled over why I short really strong stocks and not those already getting beaten up. I am starting to take this advice seriously. INFY has plainly been in a downtrend for about 17 months now, and I felt that the recent surge representing a relatively low-risk entry point.

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I am back from my travels, so my updates should be a little more punctual for the rest of this week. Thanks, as always, for stopping by!

Posted: 07:53 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink

hefeiddd

五月 31, 2008 - 06:19 上午Weekend UpdateIn contrast to the week before, last week was kind of a dud. Equities really didn't go much of anywhere, and oil alternated between new highs and tantalizing dips. All in all, pretty much of a snoozer.
From a retracement perspective, most of the indexes are very close to their 23.6% levels. A failure to take out the recent lows from May would ruin any short-term bear case.

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I have taken a particular interest in the NASDAQ, including the very similar $MSH graph, shown below. Last week was quite strong for this index, but it is approaching May's high. If it falls away from that level (about $625) and takes out May lows, this could be an excellent example of a retracement to a broken trendline. The head and shoulders pattern that I was tracking on this index has long been rendered moot.

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The dynamics in the high-tech area are easier to see in the broader $COMPQ. The thick purple line is critically important resistance.

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I don't have my puts in $XAU anymore, although I do have puts in a couple of gold equity stocks like ABX. This graph is intriguing and, as I've mentioned before, any weakness here could send this easily to the $160 level.

hefeiddd

I don't have my puts in $XAU anymore, although I do have puts in a couple of gold equity stocks like ABX. This graph is intriguing and, as I've mentioned before, any weakness here could send this easily to the $160 level.

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As you've probably noticed, I've turned pretty cool to my former favorite $RUT (Russell 2000). My favorite index put right now is the $SPX. My stop is not set at the highs of May; instead, it is set to the prior high of May 2, which is 1422.72.

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Now on to a few individual equities, all of which I am either short or on which I own puts. The first is CAT, which quickly failed its breakout attempt.

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I've been a little disappointed that CEPH has shown its recent strength, but I'm still hoping that this "tilted" head and shoulders, shown here...........

hefeiddd

I've been a little disappointed that CEPH has shown its recent strength, but I'm still hoping that this "tilted" head and shoulders, shown here...........

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.......results in the same kind of plunge that befell a very similar pattern, HSY, several years back.........

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Coach is looking good, with a very plainly defined resistance line.

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I had taken my profits on FSLR a couple of days ago, but I re-entered the position Friday when it was up about $25. A break beneath Thursday's low price would be ruinous for the price, in my opinion.

hefeiddd

I had taken my profits on FSLR a couple of days ago, but I re-entered the position Friday when it was up about $25. A break beneath Thursday's low price would be ruinous for the price, in my opinion.

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The transports have been wild lately, in spite of $130 oil. Ryder's explosive rise looks due for a rest to me, especially because of the shrinking volume lately.

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BIDU puts are very expensive, so I've only got one of them. The line of resistance speaks for itself; in addition, just check out that withering volume.

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I got OSTK puts on Thursday, and the stock took a nearly 10% tumble the next day.

hefeiddd

I got OSTK puts on Thursday, and the stock took a nearly 10% tumble the next day.

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CERN's pattern is working really nicely, with our old buddy the horizontal line doing its job.

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And CHTT, mentioning in its own post on Friday, seems to have completed a relatively clean, if a bit complex, head and shoulders pattern.

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I'll be doing some business travel on Monday, so I'll probably be rather quiet. Have a good weekend!

Posted: 06:19 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink

hefeiddd

五月 29, 2008 - 02:38 下午Oil Helps OutCrude oil, which is on the nation's mind like never before, softened up enough today do my puts some good. I am generally short most major items related to oil, gold, and agriculture. We had similar dips in crude oil in late March and late April, both of which were followed by pushes to new lifetime highs, so I am not saying the past few days are game-changing. But at some point this bull trend will be broken.

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I mentioned yesterday that I closed out my XAU puts. That was obviously early, and it's a shame that the huge bid/ask spread was the major reason for my wanting to close them out. Oh, well. I could see this easily heading to $160 and maybe even lower.

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My NASDAQ puts are pretty deeply in the red. I am watching $MSH closely. If it pushes past 625, this trade is shot.

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Crude's weakness translated into strength for the transports. This index is within a hair's breadth of a new historical high.

hefeiddd

Crude's weakness translated into strength for the transports. This index is within a hair's breadth of a new historical high.

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Apple remains one of my favorite puts, particularly in light of its relative weakness to the broad NASDAQ today.

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CNQ is just one example of the formerly hot ag-related securities that are softening up.

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I mentioned $250 as a key breaking point for FSLR (which has fallen am amazing 65 points in just a couple of weeks). We're very close.

hefeiddd

I mentioned $250 as a key breaking point for FSLR (which has fallen am amazing 65 points in just a couple of weeks). We're very close.

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Both Baidu (BIDU) and Google (GOOG) are also tantalizing at these levels.

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Baker Hughes (BHI) is a pretty sweet short with a stop at $90.

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The broad OIH has had an amazing run this year. A true tumble in crude might bring this down to the $150 level.

hefeiddd

The broad OIH has had an amazing run this year. A true tumble in crude might bring this down to the $150 level.

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I don't know if I've ever trade OSTK before, but I entered a new position in it today (short).

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Another new position for me is VMI, which is forming a broadening top.

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I also entered AGN today based on its push higher today, since the risk is lower at these levels. My stop is at $58.

hefeiddd

I also entered AGN today based on its push higher today, since the risk is lower at these levels. My stop is at $58.

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CERN is falling away nicely from the horizontal line you see here.

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And Fastenal (FAST) was a new short for me today, again based on the lower-risk entry point. There is a lot of resistance in the $50-$52 range.

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Finally, a couple of steel-related issues on the short side.

hefeiddd

Finally, a couple of steel-related issues on the short side.

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While I am encouraged at crude oil's weakness, I gotta say, if Friday isn't a down day on the indexes, I'm going to be pretty disappointed with this week. Today's firmness in equities are disquieting, although at least a portion of it was lost in the final 90 minutes of the trading day. See ya Friday!

Posted: 02:38 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink

hefeiddd

五月 27, 2008 - 09:27 上午Lights Out on SolarThe solar stocks fad - - and that's what it was, a fad - - is becoming a gerund with an "-ing" suffix. If FSLR, already weak, cracks below $250, look out below.


Posted: 09:27 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink

五月 22, 2008 - 04:46 下午Fat!Enough of this fat talk. You've caught me. I'm obese. Morbidly so. All the photographs you've seen recently were heavily Photoshopped. Here's the real Tim at work. May God forgive me for what I am.

I'm also fat with profits. Relatively speaking, at least.
It's interesting how the volume pushed much higher yesterday (during the 200+ point plunge) and shrank tremendously today with the piddling 21 point gain. (I also noticed how Marketwatch heralded this "bounce back", even though it was only 10% of the prior day's loss.)

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The $NDX, which is my big put position, has been marching up an ascending channel since mid-March. Breaking 1,940 would put a stop to that nonsense.

hefeiddd

The $NDX, which is my big put position, has been marching up an ascending channel since mid-March. Breaking 1,940 would put a stop to that nonsense.

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I remain cautiously skeptical about the S&P 500. I've tinted in the bullish case.

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But I also think the FOREX markets are pointing to a strengthening dollar. That will rough up the oil markets pretty good, should it happen.

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hefeiddd

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My AGU puts are doing OK and I like the prospects of this stock heading down to the low 60s.

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Akamai also had its first nice whack today. I'd be a holder of these puts down to about $30.

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Here's one of my hockey stick plays - CNQ. The target price for the inverted head and shoulders was met (and exceed by a point or two), and I could easily see this getting chopped 20 points.