一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-27 07:30

Original

Present

Original

Present

Original

Present

Original

Present

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-27 07:31

Original

Present

Original

Present

The only really big economic news this week is going to be Friday morning's employment report. For me, the good news is that the plunge in oil prices excited the bulls, but it let them down. This is the kind of market we need in order to push lower - - - providing, literally, a slope of hope.

Posted: 03:31 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-27 08:08

八月 28, 2008 - 05:00 下午Brutal YouthWell, there is one and only one trend in place - - - that is, me bellyaching about the markets and saying my post will be relatively short today.
This whole Sisyphus thing gets really old. Up, down, up, down, up, down - - all month long. You may ask: "Tim, why not take profits on days you are up?" Because the only way to make real money is to ride a trend...........at least for more than 6 hours at a time! My equity curve resembles the edge of a saw. Up, down, up, down, up, down. Insane!
The broken trendline is still intact and still has meaning. But by exceeding last Friday's highs, the market did some damage to the bears today.

Original

Present

It was even worse in Russell-land; the resurgence in battered financial stocks helped the IWM and $RUT quite a bit, and the series of higher lows and higher highs, shown below, is troubling. Particularly since the downturn we were starting to enjoy a couple of weeks ago was stopped cold.

Original

Present

I am feeling better about my bearish positions on oil and gold, however. Early this morning, oil and gold were briefly strong, but they gave up these gains and moved into the red. The horizontal line on the $XAU at 157.50 is formidable.

Original

Present

You should also take note of the substantial bearish engulfing pattern on the OIH..........

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-27 08:09

You should also take note of the substantial bearish engulfing pattern on the OIH..........

Original

Present

.........and the USO.............

Original

Present

I was looking at the S&P 500 chart, and I found something interesting. Look at the three sharply ascending trendlines I've drawn (not the long purple ones, but the blue ones, below). It may not look like it, but all these lines are the exact same 70% angle. What I find kind of riveting about this chart is how, for the third time in a row, the market's countertrend is cleanly tracked by this line, and eventually prices fall away. Plus, with each succession, the amount of "recovery" time is getting shorter, and the amount of "climbing" time is shrinking too.

Original

Present

I have avoided pursuing dead cat bounces in the financials. Those that have, for the moment, have prospered. Just look at the 300% gain in MBI, for instance, over the past six weeks.

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-27 08:10

I have avoided pursuing dead cat bounces in the financials. Those that have, for the moment, have prospered. Just look at the 300% gain in MBI, for instance, over the past six weeks.

Original

Present

But you need to keep these things in context............as well as the potential for a resumption of the plunge.

Original

Present

The biggest sign of my nausea with the market these days is my complete absence from the comments section. I usually really enjoy reading the comments, getting new ideas, and answering questions. But I am again (for the moment, at least) so put off by the market's whipsaw action that I don't even want to go there. Let's see if Friday does any better for us, or if this week is going to end on a sour note...........

Posted: 05:00 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-27 08:10

八月 23, 2008 - 09:14 上午The Watched PotGood (Saturday) morning, everyone. I was too wiped out Friday night to do a post, but here I am.
In spite of me being very "on" about gold, oil, and the dollar last week, it was still pretty much a grind in terms of portfolio value. In order to really blast my value higher, I need the "one-two punch" of both energy/oil/gold falling and equities falling. That will supercharge everything, based on how I am positioned.
Crude oil is really interesting. Although I didn't draw the neckline in the chart below, it cuts across about the $123 level. I'd say we're heading for the psychologically significant $100 level on oil within the next month.

Original

Present

I don't really look at commodities very much, but it is pretty remarkable just how fast commodities across the board have collapsed. I'm sure you recall earlier this summer how everyone was running around, screaming about exploding food prices, rationed rice at Wal-Mart, mega-wealthy farmers, and so forth. You could probably pinpoint the peak in prices across the board with all the squealing. Since then, things have absolutely plummeted. Just look at corn, below - from about $800 to $500 in a matter of weeks. I daresay the collapse in prices across the board has a long way to go.

Original

Present

As for equities, we continue to push into increasing complacency in bull-land. The VIX range since "the new market" began (that is, last July) has been from 16 to 37. We're at about 18 now. We are getting near the lowest levels of the VIX within this range. Historically, this means a nice surprise is around the corner.

Original

Present

The surge in equities Friday pushed things to very nice shortable levels. I also find it interesting to note how volume zoomed higher during the plunge in June and early July, and it has been withering away all through August. The market really doesn't know what to do with itself, and I think a lot of people are starting to lose interest. A watched pot never boils, and bulls and bears alike are growing weary of watching.

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-27 08:12

The surge in equities Friday pushed things to very nice shortable levels. I also find it interesting to note how volume zoomed higher during the plunge in June and early July, and it has been withering away all through August. The market really doesn't know what to do with itself, and I think a lot of people are starting to lose interest. A watched pot never boils, and bulls and bears alike are growing weary of watching.

Original

Present

Zooming in to the intraday level, however, you can see how technically perfect all this price action has been. An ascending wedge, a break, and a perfect retracement to the underside. I would be very, very surprised (and disappointed) if we didn't see a down day on Monday. (this is Gary's cue to tell me that the 25th of the month is usually an up day 97% of the time.....)

Original

Present

My "short of the year" $UTIL has been higher, naturally, due to the recent strength in the Euro, but I think this is about to change. I say again: I think interest rates are heading much higher, the dollar is heading much higher, and the $UTIL is heading 20% lower.

Original

Present

Indeed, if you want a chart expressing the potential strength of the dollar, look at USD/CAD, below. If this was a stock, wouldn't you want to be long? Just wait until that descending trendline is broken. The push above the horizontal line you see was major news.

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-27 08:13

Indeed, if you want a chart expressing the potential strength of the dollar, look at USD/CAD, below. If this was a stock, wouldn't you want to be long? Just wait until that descending trendline is broken. The push above the horizontal line you see was major news.

Original

Present

The IWM, on which I bought puts late Friday, also pushed nicely to its Fib level. I've boldfaced the two critical levels. We are just going to continue to watch (a) paint dry; (b) grass grow; until such time as that low Fib is snapped.

Original

Present

As for the rest of the post, a variety of charts I think bears may find of interest, some of which I've never mentioned before. Have a good weekend, and I'll see you Monday!

Original

Present

Original

Present

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-27 08:15

Original

Present

Original

Present

Original

Present

Original

Present

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-27 08:16

Original

Present

Original

Present

Original

Present

Original

Present

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-27 08:17

Original

Present

Original

Present

Original

Present

Posted: 09:14 上午 | Comments (View) | Permalink

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-27 08:18

八月 08, 2008 - 09:39 下午The RiskGreetings from the San Francisco Marriott, where the Money Show is taking place. I'm way in the back of the room, waiting to go on stage for a couple of hours to throw charts at Tom Sosnoff. On the way down, a couple of gents recognized me and wanted to say they read my blog. One of them was very friendly and cordial. The other mentioned how he learned from "the mistakes people who write blogs make". Glad to help! :-|
Anyway, today was obviously a really rotten end to an otherwise really cool week. As my prior post stated, it's getting really frustrating dealing with a market that lurches - alternately - up and down. On the whole, it goes nowhere. This is like the third or fourth week that I basically haven't budged in terms of portfolio value, in spite of huge swings up and down. That's a hell of a lot of work to be standing still.
A person actively trading can either (a) take profits daily or (b) play for a trend and work toward much, much bigger profits. I've been focusing on (b), and it's been a dud. Doing (a) is fraught with risk and missed opportunities, but lately, it's been the way to go. I don't get my jollies out of spinning my financial wheels. Although I guess treading water is better than losing money.
Looking closely at $XBD, we need to watch that 165 level closely. Breaking the descending trendline would be bad news, bears.

Original

Present

The DIA was very disturbing; it had huge volume, the biggest upmove in weeks (if not months), and a clean pierce above the resistance line. Not good. Super-firm resistance isn't in place until 122.

Original

Present

The IWM is also very disturbing. We're above the Fibonacci and also at risk for cutting above that descending trendline. Next week puts us very "at risk".

Original

Present

I've drawn a horizontal line on the NASDAQ to suggest one possible demarcation, but let's face it, there's not much holding the market back from pushing above this level. A rally to S&P 1320 might be a cinch for the bulls at this point. It's only 20 points away.

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-27 08:19

I've drawn a horizontal line on the NASDAQ to suggest one possible demarcation, but let's face it, there's not much holding the market back from pushing above this level. A rally to S&P 1320 might be a cinch for the bulls at this point. It's only 20 points away.

Original

Present

Oil has been amazing week the past 30 days. I think the bull's back is broken on this, but I also think we're due for a meaningful bounce higher next week before the downtrend resumes.

Original

Present

At this point, I'm sitting on a train with a bunch of rowdy baseball fans (it's a long story...........but I was speaking in San Francisco with Tom Sosnoff), so I'm going to end it here. I'm probably going to have a chunk of time in Las Vegas to put together something lengthier, but if not, please understand! I've got a big three-day show I'm doing with thinkorswim, and I'm speaking on four separate occasions, so I'll be pretty tied up. Today was rough, but try to have a good weekend! And to those of you going to Vegas, I'll see you there soon......

Posted: 09:39 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-27 08:19

七月 30, 2008 - 05:37 下午Monday, Monday......The reason for the title of this post is that I've received a number of very thoughtful and cohesive arguments from readers postulating that Monday will be the end of the "c wave" we are in and will kick off the "wonder to behold" wave 3. In other words, folks think the market is going to keep fighting its way higher (and the past two days have been fairly brutal, let me tell you!) until sometime on Monday, at which time things are going to fall absolutely to pieces for our bull friends.
On the surface, the market looks terribly strong; I had thought mid-day we might enjoy a reversal, but it was not to be. The Dow closed at its highs for the day, causing havoc to bearish portfolios everywhere.

Looking at the Fibonaccis, however, is a little more encouraging. The retracement I've put in bold appears to be decent resistance. I will note that those calling for Monday as the reversal would surely put the Dow's target (and, thus, the DIA's) at a higher level than this. "S&P 500 to 1325" has become virtually a cliche lately.

Original

Present

Crude oil's strength today held the Transports back so that they were actually in the red, in spite of the Dow's nearly 200 point jump (adding to yesterday's 250 point jump!)

Original

Present

I am somewhat chagrined to have written about DUG yesterday. I had a pretty big position in this - 2,000 shares - and early this morning I decided to sell it. Thank goodness, because I scored a very healthy profit, and by day's end it was actually a loss. I consider the red line I've drawn to be important support; if we seem to ease around the $32 level, I'll probably re-enter. You have to be nimble in a market like this, and when I saw this morning that we were not making new highs this month, I wasn't confident enough to hang on. My intuition was right this time.

Original

Present

Looking at the EUR/USD, we're at an important decision point - - the price is right on the fan line, yet it is also positioned for a potential breakout (see red horizontal line). My money is on the fan line being broken, which would naturally result in a drop in energy (and, thus, a rise in DUG).

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-27 08:20

Looking at the EUR/USD, we're at an important decision point - - the price is right on the fan line, yet it is also positioned for a potential breakout (see red horizontal line). My money is on the fan line being broken, which would naturally result in a drop in energy (and, thus, a rise in DUG).

Original

Present

Another arrow in my "energy bear" quiver is the USO, which is approaching the underbelly of its broken fan line.

Original

Present

As for OIH, can you see the three high prices around $212.50 in late June and eaerly July? I don't think those are going to be breached. That's my stop-loss level.

Original

Present

I bought puts on the $NDX (which were actually in the green during the middle part of today, in spite of the Dow's strength.......) and the $COMPQ seems to be bumping its head up against its lower channel line. Naturally my stop price on my index puts is set to the highs set on July 23rd.

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-27 08:21

I bought puts on the $NDX (which were actually in the green during the middle part of today, in spite of the Dow's strength.......) and the $COMPQ seems to be bumping its head up against its lower channel line. Naturally my stop price on my index puts is set to the highs set on July 23rd.

Original

Present

As for my best friend the Russell, this is by far my largest put position, and my stop is set to 726.27 (if memory serves). If we begin to seriously fall within the coming week, this could turn out to be a once-in-a-decade opportunity to be short this index. A push above May's highs would completely wreck that prospect.

Original

Present

Now, in no particular order, a few favorite shorts of mine. Although I won't comment on these individually, I will point out that I am ga-ga excited over Bank of America. Just take a look at those retracement levels, particularly the one I've boldfaced.

Original

Present

Original

Present

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-27 08:21

Original

Present

Original

Present

Original

Present

Original

Present

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-27 08:22

Original

Present

Original

Present

Original

Present

Original

Present

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-27 08:23

Original

Present

Original

Present

Original

Present

Tomorrow morning's GDP report (8:30 a.m. EST) is going to be vitally important. That will probably dictate whether "the fall" begins Thursday or if we're going to have to stomach a push higher (much the same can be said of Friday morning's unemployment figures). The past two days have been no fun at all, but I think relief is coming soon.

Posted: 05:37 下午 | Comments (View) | Permalink

hefeiddd · 发表于 2009-3-27 08:24

七月 28, 2008 - 03:59 下午Cautiously PessismisticToday was kind of rough. I don't mean that I lost money. On the contrary, with the Dow dropping 240 points, my portfolio went up in value handsomely. The reason it's rough is because this is one of those times when I'm torn between (a) the prospect of the market bouncing strong; and (b) the prospect of leaving profits on the table by closing positions too early.
One of the symptoms of these times is that I get very jumpy with index puts, and I bail out of them and - - God, forgive me - - even buy calls. I was in 'n' out of index positions all day, sometimes for a tiny profit, and sometimes for a larger loss. It was pretty much a grand waste of time. Just leaving everything alone (which I did with my gazillion other positions) would have been the better choice.
Last Autumn, when the Chinese market was soaring (remember that?), the "rationale" was that their market would be strong until the Olympics. Well, sports fans, that's just a week away. When that's all over, what then? I've actually not touched China, long or short, in a while. The spread on the options is too wide, and the market is pretty weird to interpret. If I had to go long one country, though, it sure wouldn't be the middle kingdom.

Original

Present

One of the reasons for my skittishness about indexes is how a number of major indexes or ETFs touched their retracement levels today. The DIA is a superb example - - even moreso since last week it did a beautiful job touching its (smaller) retracement, shown below in red.

Original

Present

Energy has been sort of pausing at its fan line, but frankly I'm expecting a break down. The OIH could head to the 165-170 range given that prospect.

Original

Present

Of all the indexes, the one I find easiest to interpret and trade these days is the Russell. We are smack dab in the middle of retracement levels right now, which I always find to be an unhappy spot. I am far too uncomfortable with the general trend of the market to be buying calls, so I'm either going to be long puts or out of the position altogether. You can plainly see that, should we eventually crack the 645 level, we've got a ginormous head and shoulders pattern on our hands.

		搜索
热搜: macd K线与均线飞狐分时指标共振指标分时橡胶牛股炒股入门

一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

浏览过的版块